2018 ELECTRICITY SUPPLY REPORT - SECURITY OF - Energinet
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
SECURITY OF ELECTRICITY SUPPLY REPORT 2018
2 Security of electricity supply report 2018
Security of electricity supply report 2018 3
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Summary.....................................................................................................................4
1. Security of electricity supply..............................................................................8
1.1 What is security of electricity supply?......................................................................... 8
1.2 The security of electricity supply framework
is becoming more international.................................................................................... 8
1.3 Level of security of electricity supply....................................................................... 10
2. Historical security of electricity supply..........................................................12
2.1 Outage statistics.............................................................................................................. 12
2.2 Electricity system incidents in 2017.......................................................................... 14
2.3 Ancillary services........................................................................................................... 18
3. Forward-looking risk assessment.................................................................20
3.1 Expectations for the future electricity system......................................................20
3.2 Generation adequacy.....................................................................................................20
3.3 Grid adequacy..................................................................................................................26
3.4 Robustness.......................................................................................................................27
3.5 IT security.........................................................................................................................31
3.6 Operational and market development.....................................................................32
Front page photo: Maintenance work on the electricity connection between Kassø
by the Danish-German border and Tjele by Viborg.
4 Security of electricity supply report 2018
SUMMARY
In general, Denmark's The Security of electricity supply re- regional, instead of simply a national,
security of electricity sup- port 2018 uses selected highlights issue. At the same time, electricity
and analyses to sum up the security of markets and operational collaboration
ply level ranks among the electricity supply for 2017 and includes across Europe are harmonised via new
highest in Europe, and the a related forward-looking risk assess- European regulations. This all greatly
2017 level was no excepti- ment. influences how Energinet will ensure
on. Danes had power avai- the Danish security of electricity supply
Energinet’s goal is for Danes not to in the future.
lable 99.995 per cent of the experience outages, resulting from
time. This means that the faults in the power transmission grid, In this 2018 report, Energinet describes
average consumer experi- for more than 60 seconds in total the main challenges for the security of
enced less than 25 minutes during a normal year. electricity supply. Examples are listed
below.
of outage. Though this is Of the 25 minutes outage in 2017, 92
slightly more than in 2016, seconds resulted from incidents in the Risk of no electricity east of the
the figure is still very low. transmission grid. The transmission Great Belt
The high level of security of grid fault that affected the most consu- The Danish electricity grid has an
mers occurred at Svanemøllen station eastern and a western section with
electricity supply is mainly in Copenhagen in October. It was a the Great Belt as the dividing line.
due to conversion to cables procedural error in connection with In Eastern Denmark, the risk of the
in the distribution grids planned maintenance at the station. electricity supply not meeting demand
will increase in the coming years.
Minimizing faults is essential to Ener- Although Energinet's 10-year outlook
ginet, as a single fault in the electricity shows an increased probability of
transmission grid can escalate and brownouts - i.e. controlled disconnecti-
lead to extensive outages for Danish ons of electricity consumers in limited
electricity consumers. Energinet aims areas - such situations are expected to
to avoid faults by continuously optimi- be very rare events.
sing work processes and component
maintenance. Energinet introduces concrete mea-
sures to address the Eastern Danish
Key challenges for the high Danish challenge. Among other things,
security of electricity supply Energinet is working to make better
The Danish and European electricity use of existing infrastructure, such as
systems are undergoing significant an upgrade of the domestic electricity
changes. Extensive wind and solar grid close to the Øresund Link that will
power capacity is integrated in the increase capacity in case of outages or
electricity system, while many traditio- revisions. Energinet is also looking into
nal thermal power stations are phased the possibility of obtaining approval
out. As more electricity interconnec- for a temporary introduction of a
tors link different countries' electrical strategic reserve. At the same time,
grids together, the security of electri- Energinet is working determinedly to
city supply becomes an increasingly implement current electricity market
Security of electricity supply report 2018 5
reforms, which will combine with other new initiatives to the fact that today’s modern wind
ensure increased flexibility in both electricity generation and turbines help to stabilise the system,
consumption, bringing new market solutions to ensure the and that Energinet can use automation
security of electricity supply. to operate the grid closer to the limit.
Renewal of the Copenhagen power grid Thus, Energinet can operate the elec-
Operation of the power grid is changing in these years as a tricity grid more stably, even without
consequence of increased renewable electricity generation, power stations running. Optimised
a rise in electricity consumption, especially from data utilisation of the electricity system's
centres, and an ageing power grid. This requires expansion components facilitates the integration
of and reinvestments in the domestic electricity grid, for of renewable energy sources while
example in Copenhagen. maintaining a high level of security of
electricity supply.
In Copenhagen and the surrounding areas, the security of
electricity supply is challenged by an ageing electricity grid Greater focus on IT security
with still longer outage times due to regular maintenance. The electricity system’s increasing
In addition, electricity consumption is expecting to rise dependence on IT requires high
while electricity generation by Copenhagen thermal power uptimes on crucial IT systems. It also
stations is declining. triggers focus on external threats,
as well as national and international
As a result, Energinet is in the process of laying new cables preparedness cooperation. One
leading into Copenhagen, and these should be operational measure implemented is a joint Nordic
by the beginning of 2019. Energinet finds that the risk of preparedness drill.
load shedding is unacceptably high during the construction
phase. Therefore, Energinet has ordered a thermal power
station in operation to maintain the high security of electrici-
ty supply in Copenhagen until the cable is put into operation.
Changes in need for properties required to maintain power
system stability
Properties required to maintain power system stability are
important to ensure the robustness of the power system, as
these properties help to ensure the stability of the electricity
grid in case of faults or outages.
Energinet's most recent and most comprehensive analyses
of the need for properties required to maintain power
system stability show that the electricity system is more
robust than previously assumed. This is due to, for example,6 Security of electricity supply report 2018
TOTAL OUTAGE MINUTES OUTAGE MINUTES DUE TO
FAULTS IN THE TRANSMIS-
SION GRID
2017, minutes:25 2017, seconds: 92
2016, minutes:19 2016, seconds: 48
Target, seconds: 60
Outage minutes for an average con-
sumer in the Danish electricity system. Average outage minutes due to system
disturbances in the transmission grid
(above 100 kV).
ALERT STATE IT SECURITY
2017, no. 2017, no.
of times: 1 of incidents: 0
2016, no. 2016, no.
of times: 1 of incidents: 3
The 2017 outage was caused by a fault No incident with loss of critical IT tools
in a cable into Copenhagen. in 2017.
PREPAREDNESS ANCILLARY SERVICES
2017, no. of 2017,
incidents: 1 DKK million: 626
2016, no. of 2016
incidents: 0 DKK million: 758
The single 2017 incident was caused by Costs of procuring ancillary services.
a fire in a station.Security of electricity supply report 2018 7
GENERATION ADEQUACY GENERATION ADEQUACY
2025 2025
More data centres. Eastern
Fewer power stations. Denmark,
More interconnectors.
More renewable energy.
minutes: 11
Western
Denmark,
Impact security of electricity supply in
minutes: :8 Security of electricity supply report 2018
1. SECURITY OF ELECTRICITY
SUPPLY
Ensuring a high level of 1.1 What is security of electricity An assessment of system security
security of electricity sup- supply? involves assessing the electricity
The level of security of electricity system’s robustness when faced with
ply is a complex interaction supply depends on the extent to which faults and IT incidents and is subdivi-
throughout the value chain electricity consumption and electricity ded into robustness and IT security.
between the physical elec- generation can be balanced and on the
tricity grid, electricity mar- electricity grid’s capacity to transfer Robustness is defined as the electricity
the electrical energy and handle system's ability to handle sudden
kets, electricity generators faults. Thus, risk assessments for the system disturbances caused by elec-
and electricity consumers. electricity system are divided into two trical short circuits, power station or
This is true not only in categories – system adequacy and transmission line outages etc. without
Denmark but for Europe as system security – which in reality are these situations affecting the electricity
two partially overlapping elements. supply or resulting in power outages.
a whole. This requires har-
monisation and cooperation Assessing system adequacy means IT security is defined as the electricity
across national borders. assessing the electricity system's ability system's ability to maintain high up-
to meet the total electricity consumer times on critical IT systems and to with-
demand, and can be subdivided into stand cyberattacks, without the system
generation adequacy and grid adequacy. and its participants being affected.
Generation adequacy is defined as the A lack of system security will, in a
electricity system’s ability to ensure worst-case scenario, lead to blackouts
adequate electricity when the consu- in Western and/or Eastern Denmark.
mer needs it. Generation adequacy is A blackout is a complete breakdown of
closely linked to the electricity market, the electricity system. The result may
where inadequacy results in high be substantial installation damage and
electricity prices. long restoration times for the electrici-
ty supply. As such, system security is
Grid adequacy is defined as the elec- the main challenge faced by the Danish
tricity transmission and distribution electricity system.
systems’ ability to transport sufficient
electricity from generation site to 1.2 The security of electricity supply
consumption site. framework is becoming more inter-
national
A lack of system adequacy will typical- Generation adequacy is becoming an
ly lead to announced disconnections increasingly regional and international
of consumers in limited areas. These issue with the expansion of renewable
situations are referred to as planned energy and the change in the electri-
disconnections or brownouts. A brown- city generation mix across national
out is a precaution taken to protect borders.
against a blackout in a large area.
Brownouts are serious incidents, yet In order to solve future challenges of
less severe than blackouts. security of electricity supply, a largeSecurity of electricity supply report 2018 9
SECURITY OF ELECTRICITY SUPPLY
SYSTEM ADEQUACY SYSTEM SECURITY
GENERATION GRID ADEQUACY ROBUSTNESS IT SECURITY
ADEQUACY Ability to supply electricity to Ability to handle sudden Ability to maintain
Ability to meet consumers disturbances or outages secure system operation
overall demand
Figure 1: Illustration of security of electricity supply consisting of system adequacy and system security.
number of initiatives have been parties, electricity distribution com- of the Danish committee on electricity
launched across Europe. Energinet is panies and installations. regulation on security of electricity
also faced with more local challenges • Principles for activating measures to supply, and the objectives in the go-
of grid adequacy and system security safeguard the security of electricity vernment report Supply for the future
as a result of the increasing electricity supply. of increased marketization of the ser-
generation from renewable energy vices that Energinet demands to safe-
sources and reduction in the number of With the adoption of the System Ope- guard the security of electricity supply.
thermal power stations in operation. ration Guideline, the Danish Electricity
Supply Act must be updated to avoid The act also proposes that the Minister
These initiatives include both the double regulation. Moreover, the Act for Energy, Utilities and Climate will
implementation of new EU regulation will incorporate the recommendations have the overall responsibility for the
in the form of European legislation and
network codes aimed at promoting
European and regional cooperation on
security of electricity supply in order to
ensure optimal use of capacity across CLEAN ENERGY FOR ALL EUROPEANS
national borders.
On 30 November 2016, the European Commission issued the draft of a major
The implementation of the System legislative package called 'Clean Energy For All Europeans'. This is expected to
Operation Guideline network code is be implemented in 2018. The package aims to promote European and regional
particularly important. This provides cooperation on the security of electricity supply in order to ensure optimal use
a framework for Energinet’s options of capacity across national borders. In addition, the package is expected to
when it comes to maintaining the require that the level of security of electricity supply be assessed on the basis
desired level of security of electricity of Value of Lost Load.
supply. This includes:
• Requirements for the content of Value of Lost Load, abbreviated VoLL, is an economic indicator that states the
the outage plan and for enhanced cost of interrupted supply. VoLL is usually determined in DKK/kWh.
regional coordination.
• Requirements for data exchange bet-
ween Energinet, balance responsible10 Security of electricity supply report 2018
security of electricity supply and the level thereof going 1.3 Level of security of electricity
forward. Energinet will continue to be responsible for supply
maintaining and monitoring the established level of security Energinet’s strategy 2018-2020 does
of electricity supply. not state an explicit target for security
of electricity supply. However, Ener-
In addition, the annual security of electricity supply report is ginet is working to keep the Danish
expected to become mandatory. level of security of electricity supply
at the European top. With the update
of the Danish Electricity Supply Act,
the Minister for Energy, Utilities and
POSSIBLE REMOVAL OF THE Climate may change the security of
electricity supply objective.
COMBINED HEAT AND POWER
Historically, Denmark’s level of security
(CHP) REQUIREMENT of electricity supply has been very high,
and it is expected to remain so in the
There has been a political debate on whether to rem- coming years, albeit not necessarily at
ove the CHP requirement for thermal power stations. exactly the same level.
Removing the CHP requirement may impact the se- The level of security of electricity
curity of the electricity supply differently in the short supply is influenced by a number of
and long term, respectively. However, Energinet does things. In some cases, an increasing
not expect the level of security of electricity supply to dependence on foreign supply, a rise
be noticeably reduced. in the number of wind turbines and
declining thermal electricity generation
In the short term, the electricity system depends on capacity pose challenges to generation
central thermal power stations to provide several adequacy.
different services. Especially in situations where, for
instance, a vital grid component is out of service due
to audit or breakdown.
In addition, it may be necessary to expand the grid
locally to compensate for the decommissioning of ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ACT
certain power stations, since these have been part of
electricity grid planning historically. This will lead to The Danish Electricity Supply
increased costs of investments in the electricity grid. Act contains various provisions
regarding the framework for a
A removal of the CHP requirement may also prove high level of security of electricity
the least expensive solution socio-economically, if the supply, and various authorities
socio-economic savings for the stations are greater are assigned tasks and compe-
than the increased socio-economic costs for the tences in relation to this. Energi-
electricity system. net has the overall responsibility
for security of electricity supply in
In the long term, the need for technical characteri- Denmark. This obligation creates
stics will change as the electricity system develops. the foundation for Energinet's
At some point, the services delivered by central core tasks in connection with the
power stations today may be replaced by different support of a high level of security
technologies. of electricity supply. The Danish
Electricity Supply Act is expected
to be revised in 2018.Security of electricity supply report 2018 11
Energinet monitors the development and continuously Denmark. Energinet will use these
evaluates whether to take action to maintain the level of talks to ask for an approval for the
security of electricity supply. period 2025-2029 with an option to
extend this period by five years.
Energinet works on the implementation of new market
reforms on an ongoing basis, including incentives for con- At the same time, Energinet is working
sumption flexibility combined with more transparency and determinedly to actualise ongoing
marketization of services to maintain security of electricity electricity market reforms, and new
supply. initiatives aimed at ensuring greater
flexibility both from electricity genera-
At the same time, new grid components make it possible to tion and electricity consumption and
safeguard system robustness, even on days with no central from new storage technologies will be
electricity generation capacity. launched in the coming years.
Cost-effective security of electricity supply is about ensuring
that the electricity system works, so the participants
throughout the value chain can supply energy to customers
when needed. STRATEGIC
A high level of security of electricity supply is of great RESERVE
socio-economic value, and the Danish electricity system is
designed accordingly. Whether to invest more in strengt- From 2014-2017, the European
hening the security of electricity supply depends on the Commission approved a number
availability of cost-effective tools to minimise the risk of of capacity mechanisms in e.g.
outages. Therefore, this entails an assessment of whether England, France and Germany
additional measures are to be taken to prevent a loss of based on new regulation, and
electricity supply. This means that cost becomes a question in February 2018, strategic
of looking into different measures and comparing these in reserves were approved for
respect of the risk reductions that they will provide. the first time in Germany and
Belgium.
Generation adequacy analyses in Denmark towards 2025
show that Eastern Denmark still faces the greatest risk of In case of the latter two
power shortage. Although results are somewhat uncertain, countries, these are temporary
they show that there is an increased probability of a limited strategic reserves. The purpose
number of brownout situations over the next 10 years. Brow- of strategic reserves is to
nouts are most likely to occur in situations involving several ensure national generation
simultaneous cases of outage in the grid, interconnectors adequacy in the event of a
and/or thermal power station outages, and low levels of series of unexpected changes
wind power generation. Thus, power shortage situations will in the electricity system with
be very rare events. potentially significant impact on
the security of electricity supply.
Achieving a higher level of generation adequacy will require In other words, the reserves
the launch of initiatives that underpin the energy-only mar- in these two cases should be
ket by means of e.g. incentive-promoting electricity market seen as measures to ensure
reforms, new interconnectors or a capacity mechanism in the security of electricity supply
the form of a strategic reserve. during the ongoing transition
of the two countries' power
This explains Energinet’s wish to open up talks with the systems.
European Commission and the Danish authorities on the
possibility of obtaining approval for a time-limited strategic
reserve in order to uphold generation adequacy in Eastern12 Security of electricity supply report 2018
2. HISTORICAL SECURITY OF
ELECTRICITY SUPPLY
For many years, Danish 2.1 Outage statistics enced several outages, while others
electricity consumers have Danish electricity transmission grid experienced none.
and distribution grid faults and outages
experienced very high are recorded in the Elselskabernes In 2017, the number of outage minutes
levels of security of electri- Fejl- og Afbrudsstatistik (ELFAS) was still very low. There were just
city supply. This was also statistics. less than 25 minutes of outage, which
the case in 2017 with a very is higher than in 2016. Thus, Danes
Outage statistics show the extent to had power 99.995 per cent of the
low number of outage mi- which an average electricity consumer time on average. This makes 2017 yet
nutes per consumer and experienced outages. This means that another year where Danish electricity
a low number of incidents some electricity consumers experi- consumers had a security of electri-
that impacted the security city supply level that was among the
highest in Europe.
of supply in the electricity
system. Until 2011, the outage statistic was
FIGURE 2: OUTAGE STATISTICS FOR divided into the voltage levels 1-24
DENMARK, 1998-2017. kV and 25-99 kV, with the electricity
Source: Elselskabernes Fejl- og Afbrudsstatistik (EL- transmission grid included in the 25-99
FAS), Danish Energy Association.
kV statistics. After 2011, the electricity
The figure shows the average duration of electricity transmission grid is shown indepen-
supply outages in minutes per consumer per year
(calculated per delivery point) in Denmark. Historically, dently using the category > 100 kV.
power shortages have not led to the disconnection of
consumers in Denmark and are therefore not included
in the figure.
Outage minutes per year (delivery points)
150
TABLE 1: AVERAGE NUMBER OF
120 OUTAGE MINUTES OVER THE LAST 5,
10, 15 AND 20 YEARS.
90
Source: Elselskabernes Fejl- og Afbrudsstatistik (EL-
FAS), Danish Energy Association.
60
30
(Minutes/ 5 10 15 20
year) years years years years
0
1-24 kV 16 18 25 31
2001 2005 2009 2013 2017
25-99 kV 4 5 11 10
>100 kV 20-year average
25-99 kV 10-year average >100 kV 1 - - -
1-24 kV
Total 21 23 36 41Security of electricity supply report 2018 13
FAULT AT SVANEMØLLEN
STATION
The fault that affected the most
electricity consumers occurred at
Svanemøllen station on 4 October
2017. The fault was caused by a
procedural error in connection
Apart from one-time incidents, such as a fault in Western with switching during planned
Denmark’s transmission grid in 2002 and a fault in the Swe- maintenance at the station.
dish grid in 2003, the general picture is that the vast majority
of outage minutes are due to faults in the distribution grid. A manual switching procedure
of an operational busbar went
There are approximately 20-30 outage minutes per average wrong, resulting in the tripping
consumer per year caused by outages at the distribution of the entire station. This then
level. As more overhead lines are converted to cables, the led to an automatic unintentional
number of outage minutes in the distribution grid is gradually tripping of the line between
declining. Amager Power Station and
Bellahøj station.
The underlying reasons for the high outage minute numbers
in 1999 and 2005 were a hurricane and a storm, respectively. Close to 92,000 electricity con-
sumers were disconnected,
Therefore, average outage levels should be viewed over a and it took around 25 minutes
number of years. before the electricity supply was
restored by rerouting the under-
lying distribution grid.
TABLE 2: DISTURBANCES IN THE TRANSMISSION GRID
INVOLVING DISCONNECTION OF ELECTRICITY CONSU-
MERS IN THE DANISH ELECTRICITY SYSTEM IN 2017.
DISTURBANCES, OUTAGES,
Source: Elselskabernes Fejl- og Afbrudsstatistik (ELFAS), Danish Energy Association.
INCIDENTS AND FAULTS
Typical incidents include distur-
Unserved Outage minutes bances, near-miss incidents, IT
Date Error type
energy (MWh) (seconds) incidents and N-1 exceeding.
Procedural error The term disturbance is defined
6/2 in Energinet's 14 15
control centre as faults in the grid that make at
least one component disconnect,
Procedural thus affecting operation of the
4/10 35 34
error at station electricity system. Disturbances
Procedural do not necessarily lead to discon-
11/10 8 8 nection of electricity consumers.
error at station
29/10 Component error 36 35 Outages, on the other hand, are
defined as situations where elec-
Total 93 1 minute and tricity consumers are not supplied
32 seconds with the electricity demanded.14 Security of electricity supply report 2018
Outages caused by the transmission grid 2.2 Electricity system incidents in 2017
On average, a total of 92 seconds (1 minute and 32 seconds) Incidents of significance to security of
of the 25 minutes of outage that electricity consumers electricity supply occur at the electri-
experienced in 2017, were caused by four disturbances in the city market, system, IT and component
transmission grid. levels.
These faults mainly owed to procedural errors that Energi- Generation adequacy
net is working to avoid by implementing new workflows in There were no incidents related to
the control centre and establishing better cooperation with generation shortages in the Danish
contractors, among other things. electricity system in 2017. As has been
the trend historically, there were thus
Outage seconds at transmission level were distributed as no market-related shortages in 2017
follows: 15 seconds were caused by a procedural error in the which led to failure to reach a market
electricity system control centre, 42 seconds by procedural price.
errors at stations and 35 seconds by component faults.
COPENHAGEN
In the Copenhagen area, security of electricity supply is with the lowest possible socio-econo-
under pressure. Reasons include an ageing electricity mic costs.
grid, characterised by increasing planned outage times, an
expected rise in electricity consumption and the continued Alternatively, as a precaution, Energi-
decommissioning of thermal electricity generation capacity net can disconnect electricity con-
in the area. Consequently, outages on the two 400 kV lines sumption in the area to avoid overload
linking the grid in Copenhagen to the rest of Zealand can in situations of outages on one of the
cause intolerable overloads in the electricity grid. Thus, two 400 kV lines.
there is a risk that electricity consumers in Copenhagen will
have to be disconnected more or less permanently until the In late 2017 and early 2018, there were
damage caused by any overload has been repaired. two major faults in the Copenhagen
area which led to near-miss incidents:
Energinet’s business case on “Forsyning af København”, • A faulty meter led to the disconnec-
published in 2017, stated that the socio-economically best tion of one 400 kV connection. If the
solution is to invest in an upgrade of the electricity grid Amager Power Station unit 3 had
leading into Copenhagen. The Minister for Energy, Utilities not been running, the consequence
and Climate has approved the construction of a new 132 kV would have been disconnection of
cable in the area, which will solve the current problem in electricity consumers.
Copenhagen. The cable is expected to be operational in early • An oil leak led to the disconnection
2019. of one of the 132 kV connections in
Copenhagen. Amager Power Station
However, until the cable is in place, exceptional measures unit 3 was not in operation. If the
are necessary, since the risk of forced disconnections is remaining power stations had been
considered unacceptably high. One such measure is that unable to ramp up electricity genera-
Energinet has chosen to order Amager Power Station’s unit 3 tion, it would have been necessary to
to run until the cable is commissioned. This decision is based disconnect electricity consumers.
on an assessment of how the challenge faced can be metSecurity of electricity supply report 2018 15
Use of brownout
The controlled disconnection of electricity consumers
(brownout) to handle strained operating situations was not
necessary in 2017.
However, there were a few operating situations in which the
loss of the largest unit (N-1) in the system could have led to
a power shortage due to maintenance work and breakdowns
in the electricity system. Had such an incident occurred, it
might have been necessary to disconnect electricity consu-
mers.
Operational status
Energinet's electricity system control centre operates with
three different operational status types: normal operation,
alert state and emergency state.
OPERATIONAL
The electricity system is in normal operation for the vast
STATUS TYPES
majority of the time. In 2017, an alert state was registered
once in November. The state was triggered by the fault on During normal operation, the
the 400 kV cable in November, which presented a challenge electricity system follows the
to the security of electricity supply in Copenhagen. The normal operating conditions,
problem, was quickly resolved, and the upward regulation including being able to handle
of Amager Power Station’s unit 3 and quick troubleshooting, an outage of the largest unit
among other things, ensured that there were no electricity (the N-1 principle).
consumer outages in the intervening period.
If incidents in the electricity
system threaten normal
operation, and there is a risk
TABLE 3: LIST OF DANISH INCIDENTS REPORTED TO THE of operation disruption, the
ICS STATISTICS IN 2016 AND 2017. operating situation changes to
an alert state. In an alert state,
Incidents are classified in the reporting on a scale from 0-3, where 3 is the most
severe level: the electricity market can be
• Scale 0 Local deviations with low impact on operational reliability
suspended, and Energinet
• Scale 1 Serious incidents and incidents affecting more than one TSO can use all the options at
• Scale 2 Extensive incidents in a large area (e.g. neighbouring TSOs)
• Scale 3 Major incidents resulting in a blackout its disposal to maintain the
Loss of IT tools is only registered for scale 1 and scale 2 incidents in the ICS statistics.
electricity supply.
Scale Scale Scale Scale If operation becomes un-
CRITERIA stable, and there are also
0 1 2 3
local/regional outages, the
Incidents with operating situation is changed
2016: 1 2016: 13
components in the to emergency state. In an
2017: 1 2017: 10
transmission grid emergency state, Energinet
calls in extra crisis staff,
Violation of 2016: 0 2016: 0 and preparations are made
voltage standards 2017: 0 2017: 0 to handle extended system
disturbances.
2016: 0 2016: 3
Loss of IT tools
2017: 0 2017: 016 Security of electricity supply report 2018
An emergency state is declared extremely rarely, and there Disturbance Statistics and Classifi-
were no cases in 2017. cation (DISTAC)
Within the ENTSO-E framework, the
European incident reporting Nordic and Baltic countries prepare
Europe’s electricity systems are closely connected, and sy- an annual report called DISTAC. The
stem disturbances in one country may impact neighbouring report describes both system distur-
countries, or in the worst case all of Europe. Therefore, bances and faults in the HVAC grid
European TSOs work together to maintain secure operation over 100 kV and the utilisation of HVDC
in a common electricity system. connections regarding outage times
and limitations.
ENTSO-E has developed an Incidence Classification Scale
(ICS). The ICS aims to provide an overview of incidents in Reporting on the AC (HVAC) grid
the European electricity system through a single common A technical incident report is prepared
reporting method. ICS statistics only cover events at the 220 for the HVAC grid, providing insights
kV level or above. into failure rates, causes, security of
supply and components subject to
There were 10 incidents in the transmission grid in 2017 multiple faults.
against 13 the year before. Four of the incidents in 2017 In 2017, 53 system disturbances
occurred at KontiSkan, four at Skagerrak and two at the occurred in the Danish electricity grid
Øresund Link. at voltage levels above 100 kV, with
an equivalent 51 disturbances in 2016.
No incidents with loss of critical IT tools were registered in The 10-year average from 2008 to 2017
2017 against three in 2016. was 55 errors. Four system disturban-
FIGURE 3: ILLUSTRATION OF THE NUMBER OF AC (HVAC) FIGURE 4: RESTRICTIONS ON THE
GRID FAULTS. IMPORT VIA DANISH HVAC CONNEC-
TIONS.
Source: DISTAC, Nordic and Baltic Grid Disturbance Statistics 2015.
Source: Energy Data Service, www.energidataservice.dk.
Number of faults Pct.
20 100
80
15
60
10
40
5 20
0 0
Lightning Other External Operation Tech- Other Unknown 2016 2017
environ- influen- and main- nical
mental ces tenance equip-
causes ment
AC Germany
2016 2017 The Øresund LinkSecurity of electricity supply report 2018 17
ce incidents led to disconnection of consumers in 2017. By ”The system’s robustness
comparison, there were 13 such incidents in 2016.
enables Energinet’s control
Restrictions on AC connections centre to handle most sy-
Energinet monitors the exchange capacity of AC connections stem disturbances without
in Eastern and Western Denmark. Moreover, import capacity
is an important aspect of security of electricity supply.
escalating these to emer-
gency incidents”
In 2017, the AC connection from Germany (import capacity)
was restricted an average 8 per cent of the time, which was
lower than in 2016. The Øresund Link (import capacity) was
limited 9 per cent of the time on average.
Reporting on HVDC connections
Statistics are prepared for the Nordic HVDC connections, Availability of central power stations
detailing how these are impacted by technical limitations Average availability of central electri-
in the grid or by faults and maintenance work. The Danish city generation capacity in Denmark
HVDC interconnectors and the Great Belt Power Link are roughly matches previous years' levels.
included in the statistics. In 2017, availability averaged 82 per
cent, up from 73 per cent in 2016 and
In 2016, 24 faults were registered on connections to/from 79 per cent in 2015. Availability is not
Denmark, while 18 were registered in 2017. A 102-day cable 100 per cent because maintenance
fault on Skagerrak 2 represented the only long-lasting fault work and breakdowns still take place.
in 2017.
Emergency incidents
Emergency incidents are rare in the
FIGURE 5: CURRENT RESULTS FOR CAUSES OF OUTAGE Danish electricity system. The system’s
TIMES AND LIMITATIONS ON THE IMPORT CAPACITY FOR robustness enables Energinet’s
DANISH HVDC CONNECTIONS. control centre to handle most system
disturbances without escalating these
Source: DISTAC, Nordic and Baltic HVDC Utilisation and Unavailability Statistics 2017. to emergency incidents. In 2017, only
one incident reached proportions that
Pct. of technical capacity
required the preparation of an incident
100
report for the Danish Energy Agency.
80
This incident involved a fault at a 10
60 kV substation which then caused a fire
in the building. The building was split
40
between an electricity distribution
20
company and Energinet, and the fire
quickly spread to Energinet’s 132 kV
0 installation. Damage from the fire was
2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017
Kontek Konti- Konti- Skager- Skager- Skager- Skager- Great so extensive that the station was out of
Skan 1 Skan 2 rak 1 rak 2 rak 3 rak 4 Belt Power
Link service for some two months after the
incident.
Outages due to maintenance
Outages due to faults On the day of the incident, Energinet
rerouted the grid around the damaged
Technical limitations
station, keeping the grid fully operatio-
nal and securing grid stability. Con-
tractors could then rebuild the station18 Security of electricity supply report 2018
Energinet's electricity system control centre in Erritsø.
uninterrupted. The station was put into and 800 million annually. Overall, costs Costs of procuring properties required
operation again in steps by criticality; dropped approximately DKK 130 million to maintain power system stability
the first part only a month after the from 2016 to 2017. went down from DKK 48 million in 2016
incident and the last part some two to 10 million in 2017. Moreover, these
months after. The largest change from 2016 to costs dropped approximately DKK 130
2017 is a considerable drop in the million from 2015 to 2016. In other
To prevent similar incidents, Energinet cost of manual reserves. Costs were words, costs of properties required to
has launched a study to clarify whether exceptionally high in 2016 because maintain power system stability have
there are other stations where some- of a special situation in the manual been reduced by more than DKK 160
thing similar might occur. reserves market in the autumn of that million in just two years. The decrease
year. This was caused by a planned is mainly due to the fact that the
2.3 Ancillary services outage at Kyndby Power Station, which generic need for properties required
Ancillary services is the collective term is usually the main supplier of manual to maintain power system stability has
for the electricity generation and con- reserves in Eastern Denmark. been reduced in recent years, while
sumption resources used to maintain Energinet has also expanded the grid
electricity system balance and stability. In 2017, the cost of other ancillary with synchronous compensators and
Energinet purchases ancillary services services increased from DKK 30 to 112 added automation features to existing
that can be activated automatically or million. The rise was mainly due to the grid components.
manually in the delivery hour. Ancillary one-off, long-term situation in Copen-
services consist of reserves, regulating hagen, where Energinet is paying for Local needs for properties required
power, properties required to maintain Amager Power Station unit 3 to run con- to maintain power system stability
power system stability and other tinuously. Keeping the power station in in case of breakdowns and planned
system services such as emergency operation reduces the risk of overloads outages are seen as unchanged
start-up. and thus disconnection of electricity because, most often, only one possible
consumers. Other ancillary services supplier is available locally. Therefore,
In 2013-2017, Energinet purchased also includes emergency start-up and ordering constitutes a large portion
ancillary services at between DKK 600 generation adequacy capabilities. of total costs of properties required toSecurity of electricity supply report 2018 19
maintain power system stability, but out of a much reduced
total amount. In 2017, there was no unplanned ordering FIGURE 6: COST OF ANCILLARY
where Energinet may, at very short notice, make use of the SERVICES.
ordering option under the Danish Electricity Supply Act. For
further information, please read the Energinet publication Note: Before 2015, black start was recognised as part.
of manual reserves.
"Energinet’s use of ordering to secure the security of
electricity supply 2016-2017".
DKK million
Plans to decommission power stations and cancelled 800
outage applications
Energinet coordinates and draws up an annual outage plan. 600
The outage plan ensures that outage times are coordinated
with market participants. The outage plan is prepared 400
on the basis of submissions from central power stations,
200
interconnectors and Energinet's own projects. Once appro-
ved, Energinet cannot deviate from the outage plan without
0
compensating the affected parties. Energinet did not cancel 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
any outage in the outage plan in 2017.
Manual reserves (mFRR)
Automatic reserves (aFRR and FCR)
Properties required to maintain
power system stability
Other ancillary services
TABLE 4: COSTS OF PROPERTIES REQUIRED TO MAINTAIN Energinet evaluates all requested
POWER SYSTEM STABILITY scheduled outages from the market
participants according to the current
Note 1: Stated costs of synchronous compensators include operation and maintenance,
electricity consumption, depreciation and financing. technical regulation, the power balance
in Western and Eastern Denmark, and
the areas combined. The parties may
COSTS OF PROPERTIES REQUIRED TO MAINTAIN POWER have to adjust their outage requests
SYSTEM STABILITY if deemed necessary. Energinet was
unable to grant several requested
DKK million 2014 2015 2016 2017 outages.
PLANNED
In 2017, several applications were
• Market contracts 164 171 18 2 made for changes to operating condi-
• Ordered under the Danish tions of central power stations. These
0 0 30 8
Electricity Supply Act include, among other things, closures
NOT PLANNED and extended start-up warnings. In
each situation, Energinet assessed the
• Ordered under the
54 6 0 0 security of supply-related consequen-
Danish Electricity Supply Act
ces.
Costs of synchronous com-
38 54 54 57
pensators1: In a few cases, Energinet found that
the change would result in an unaccep-
Total costs of properties table deterioration of the security of
required to maintain power 255 231 102 67 electricity supply and could therefore
system stability not approve the applications.20 Security of electricity supply report 2018
3. FORWARD-LOOKING RISK
ASSESSMENT
The forward-looking risk • Generation adequacy analyses for it an increase in wind and solar-based
assessment takes into Denmark up to 2025 still show that electricity generation capacity. Ther-
Eastern Denmark faces the greatest mal electricity generation capacity has
account expected develop- risk of power shortage. declined correspondingly in recent
ments and challenges in the • Grid adequacy may be challenged by years. This trend is expected to
electricity system. Generally an increasing number of reinvest- continue.
speaking, the forward- ment and connection activities in the
electricity transmission grid. In addition, Denmark will expand its
looking risk assessment is • On the other hand, units required to currently significant exchange capacity
based on developments in maintain power system stability and further in the coming years.
system adequacy, which increasing use of automation help
can be subdivided into ge- to strengthen the robustness of the 3.2 Generation adequacy
electricity system. Generation adequacy is the electricity
neration and grid adequacy, • The electricity system’s increasing system's ability to meet the overall
and system security, which dependence on IT requires high demand of electricity consumers. Ge-
can be subdivided into uptimes on crucial IT systems.
robustness and IT security.
3.1 Expectations for the future
electricity system
The assessment of the future security
FIGURE 7: MAXIMUM POWER CON-
of electricity supply is based on SUMPTION, AND ELECTRICITY GENE-
Energinet’s Analysis Assumptions 2017. RATION AND EXCHANGE CAPACITY.
The analysis assumptions represent
Source: Energinet's Analysis Assumptions 2017.
Energinet’s best estimate of trends in
key parameters in the electricity and
gas sectors towards 2040. GW
12
The main parameters in Energinet’s
10
generation and grid adequacy
8
assessment are trends in electricity
consumption, electricity generation 6
and exchange capacity. These trends 4
are inherently linked to both short and
2
long-term uncertainties. In this respe-
ct, the electrification extent of other 0
2019 2025 2030
sectors, with its matching increase in
electricity consumption, and the speed
Thermal elecitricity generation capacity
of the green transition, play significant
RE capacity
roles.
Exchange capacity
Electricity generation and exchange Maximum power consumption
capacity
The green transition has brought withSecurity of electricity supply report 2018 21
neration adequacy is closely linked to the electricity market, In this year’s report, future generation
where inadequacy results in high electricity prices. adequacy risk assessments are made
using the Forsyningssikkerhedsindeks
(FSI) model.
The method Energinet uses to perform
FSI MODEL generation adequacy analyses has
been substantially updated compared
The Forsyningssikkerhedsindeks (FSI) model is with previous years' security of
Energinet's tool for analysing generation adequacy electricity supply reports.
in Denmark. The model is stochastic and simulates
incidents in the electricity system, which can lead to The procedure that Energinet’s control
power shortages, on an hourly basis. centre uses to determine the capacity
of the Øresund Link in case of a bre-
Every year, the security of electricity supply is ana- akdown or planned outage has been
lysed using a large number of simulations to repre- partly incorporated in the model. The
sent possible incident combinations. The model model’s limitations make it impossible
results thus illustrate an average of all calculations to incorporate the procedure fully.
for a single year. The procedure has a major impact
on available capacity in the model,
The FSI model is based on historical time series for as an outage on one of the Øresund
electricity consumption and fluctuating electricity link’s four lines impacts the exchange
generation (wind and solar power). Electricity gene- capacity of the rest.
ration from thermal power stations and imports
via interconnectors are stochastic. The stochastic The procedure is updated annually
element is represented using probabilities for break- to match changes in the grid. There-
downs. Thermal generation stations and international fore, more exchange capacity will be
connections will therefore be unable to supply available in case of planned outages
energy to meet electricity consumption for a number or breakdowns on the Øresund Link in
of hours in each simulation. Planned outages on the 2025 simulation. This means that
Denmark's central power stations and international generation adequacy analyses will
trade connections are placed deterministically in show more available capacity on the
the models based on a planned optimisation of their connection in 2025 than previously.
positions in relation to each other.
This increased availability in the 2025
The model estimates the risk of outages in the Danish simulation is due to an expected
system due to power shortages. The FSI model is upgrade of a domestic connection
best suited to perform calculations on the basis of between the Øresund Link and the
assumptions resembling the situation today, as the Zealand electricity grid. The upgrade
model is based on historical time series and without is expected to be carried out between
derived effects of shortage situations, such as flexible 2020 and 2025.
electricity consumption.
In addition, outage at central power
The FSI model will tend to overestimate the risk of stations and on interconnectors is
power shortages in a future electricity system which modelled deterministically as opposed
is significantly different from today's system in terms to the previous stochastic approach.
of both physics, the market and international operati-
onal cooperation (e.g. in 2025). Generation adequacy assessment
Generation adequacy analyses for
Denmark up to 2030 still show that
Eastern Denmark faces the greatest22 Security of electricity supply report 2018
risk of power shortage. Reasons include reduced domestic
electricity generation capacity and less exchange capacity
in Eastern Denmark than in Western Denmark. All analysis GENERATION ADEQUACY
results for Western Denmark show a risk of less than one INDICATORS
weighted minute per year. Therefore, only results for Eastern
Denmark are presented in the following. Weighted minutes are consumer-
weighted outage minutes, calcu-
Overall, the risk of power shortages in Eastern Denmark is lated by dividing unserved energy
estimated to be increasing over time. This is primarily due to (EUE) by average hourly
the expected reduced thermal electricity generation capacity consumption for Eastern and
as well as to increased electricity and power consumption. Western Denmark, respectively, in
the simulated year.
Therefore, Energinet is opening talks with the EU Commis- EUE (Expected Unserved Energy)
sion and Danish authorities on the possibility of obtaining indicates unserved energy in the
an approval for a time-limited introduction of a strategic simulations. In other words, total
reserve in order to maintain generation adequacy in Eastern electricity consumption that is
Denmark. Energinet will use these talks to ask for an expected not to be covered by
approval for the period 2025-2029 with an option to extend electricity generation and imports.
this period by five years. LOLE (Loss Of Load Expectation)
indicates the number of hours
Energinet is working determinedly to actualise ongoing with power shortages, irrespec-
electricity market reforms, and new initiatives to ensure tive of the scope of the shortages.
increased flexibility both from the electricity generation and
consumption sides as well as from new storage technologies
will be launched over the coming years.
Eastern Denmark is closely linked to Southern Sweden, and
the Øresund Link greatly affects generation adequacy in
Eastern Denmark. In 2020, replacement of the Øresund Link
400 kV cables is expected to reduce capacity significantly in the event of outage times in 2025
for 1-2 months. When the exact replacement time is set, compared to today. In the FSI model,
Energinet will assess whether extraordinary measures the number of 2025 output minutes is
must be implemented, such as long-term outage planning halved with these upgrades.
or a tender for temporary extra electricity consumption or
generation capacity. The 11 weighted minutes in 2025 in FSI
correspond to the expectation that an
When the Øresund Link is only partly operational, its capa- average electricity consumer will have
city depends on the domestic electricity grid in Eastern 99.9979 per cent of demanded energy
Denmark. Energinet is planning an upgrade of this domestic supplied.
grid between 2020 and 2025, increasing available capacity
Note that the expected number of
hours with power shortage (LOLE) in
the model simulations is low. Conse-
TABLE 5 – FSI RESULTS 2019-2030 quently, power shortage situations very
Note that outlook for 2025 without upgrades in the domestic grid is 22 weighted rarely appear in the simulations.
minutes and security of supply 99.9957 per cent.
New method to calculating generation
FSI Weighted EUE LOLE Security of adequacy
minutes (MWh/year) (affected electricity Until now, Energinet has used the
(minutes/ hours/year) supply
year) (per cent) FSI model but expects to move to the
Better Investment Decisions (BID)
2019 2 53 0.1 99.9996 model going forward. BID model
results are not used in this year's
2025 11 340 0.6 99.9979 security of electricity supply report,
as the model's generation adequacy
2030 42 1,373 2.5 99.9921 calculation module has not yet been
fully implemented in Denmark.Security of electricity supply report 2018 23
Here, the submarine cable for the EU-subsidised Kriegers Flak project is landed. The project will connect German offshore wind farms to a future
Danish offshore wind farm in the Baltic Sea.
BID is used by the other Nordic TSOs, there are also model-specific qualities, Sensitivities of future generation
as well as in ENTSO-E’s Midterm Ade- and therefore, the models will not adequacy levels
quacy Forecast, which gives Energinet present the exact same assessment The risk assessments of future gene-
a better opportunity to use the results of Danish generation adequacy levels. ration adequacy are greatly influenced
both nationally and internationally. As a result of the technical differences by input data. This is illustrated in the
between the models and updates in following sensitivity analyses, which
Two of the main differences between assumptions, next year's report cannot were performed using the FSI model in
FSI and BID are that BID incorporates be expected to show exactly the same the simulation year 2025. The different
both modelling of the power situation results. parameter variations are illustrative
throughout Europe and compulsory
heat production for power stations.
FSI only models selected neighbouring
areas. Better modelling of other BID model
countries can mean more and less
available power compared to FSI. The Better Investment Decisions elements. The model assesses
On the other hand, the incorporation (BID) model is an electricity market generation adequacy in all model-
of power stations’ compulsory heat model which, among other things, led price areas, thus incorporating
production is expected to worsen the can be used to assess generation other nations' impact on Danish
power situation. adequacy. The model simulates the generation adequacy. Unlike FSI,
electricity market across Europe, the model can handle flexible
Both models basically use the same thus reflecting Denmark’s relations electricity consumption directly.
methods to assess the risk of power to the world around us.
shortages in the system.
Power station breakdowns and
Even though there are many simila- interconnectors are stochastic
rities to the methods in FSI and BID,24 Security of electricity supply report 2018
examples and do not reflect Energinet's assessment of input ”As data centres are large
parameter uncertainties.
energy consumers, their
Sensitivities show a risk of power shortages in Western electricity consumption
Denmark of no more than one weighted minute per year, could greatly influence the
attributable to e.g. the commissioning of COBRAcable to
the Netherlands and Viking Link to the UK. Therefore, only
overall generation adequacy
results for Eastern Denmark are presented in the following. of the Danish electricity
system.”
Increased electricity consumption flexibility
Currently, efforts are made to present electricity consumers
with better options to participate in the electricity market.
This may lead to an increase in the incentive for electricity
consumers to move electricity consumption to hours with Sensitivity-wise, a total reduction in
lower electricity prices. the Danish electricity system gene-
ration capacity of 1.5 GW is assumed,
The analysis assumes that it will be possible to move 100 compared with Analysis Assumptions
MW in both Western and Eastern Denmark. This will happen 2017. The reduction is divided into 1
if electricity prices exceed €100/MWh. GW in Western Denmark and 500 MW
in Eastern Denmark, distributed fairly
As expected, results show that increased electricity con- equally between central and decentra-
sumption flexibility will improve generation adequacy. lised power generation capacity.
Phasing out of thermal electricity generation capacity The reduction has a negative impact
Thermal electricity generation capacity is an important on generation adequacy. Results show
aspect of risk assessments of the power situation. There- a significantly higher risk of power
fore, the extent to which faster phasing out of electricity shortages in Eastern Denmark than
generation capacity affects the power situation is examined. electricity consumers face today.
TABLE 6: RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IN EASTERN DENMARK IN 2025.
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS EASTERN DENMARK
Weighted EUE LOLE Security of
2025 minutes (MWh/year) (affected electricity supply
(minutes/year) hours/year) (per cent)
” Base case” 11 340 0.6 99.9979
Electricity consumption flexibility 6 195 0.4 99.9988
Thermal electricity generation capacity 64 1,943 3.6 99.9878
Increased data centre expansion 19 610 1.1 99.9964
Increased data centre expansion and
phasing out of thermal electricity 84 2,720 5 99.9841
generation capacityYou can also read
