2015 WEST VIRGINIA MAST SURVEY AND HUNTING OUTLOOK - WEST VIRGINIA DIVISION OF NATURAL RESOURCES WILDLIFE RESOURCES SECTION
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2015 WEST VIRGINIA MAST SURVEY
AND
HUNTING OUTLOOK
AUTHORS
Eric S. Richmond
Christopher W. Ryan
Colin P. Carpenter
Michael L. Peters
Wildlife Resources Bulletin Number 15-3
WEST VIRGINIA DIVISION
OF NATURAL RESOURCES
WILDLIFE RESOURCES SECTION
Federal Aid Project
funded by your purchase of
hunting equipment
2015 West Virginia Mast Survey
Christopher Ryan, Colin Carpenter, Michael Peters and Eric Richmond
The Division of Natural Resources (DNR) in cooperation with the Division
of Forestry annually surveys the State to determine relative abundance of soft
and hard mast of important trees and shrubs. Information on the quantity of
wildlife food is provided to our cooperators, our hunters and the news media.
Two hundred eighteen (218) locations covering all regions of West Virginia
were surveyed in 2015. Observations were collected by 78 professionals from a
variety of disciplines, including wildlife managers, foresters, wildlife biologists,
retired wildlife managers and biologists, several conservation officers, Natural
Resources Commissioners and a few other cooperators devoted their time to
collect data. Without the efforts from all of these individuals this survey would not
be possible. We sincerely thank everyone and extend our special thanks to
retired persons and sportsmen.
The mast survey is a relative estimation of mast produced by 18 different
species. A sample of the mast survey form is included in the Appendix. To
collect mast survey information, cooperators are assigned counties and areas
familiar to them. Mast data is subjectively evaluated as abundant, common or
scarce. The surveyor also documents species not seen. The mast index is
calculated for each species by the following formula:
Mast Index = [abundant observations ÷ total observations] +
[common observations X 0.5 ÷ total observations] X 100
The mast index is calculated by species for each ecological region and
elevation (high and low). The current year’s index is compared to the previous
year’s index. It is also compared to a long-term average index spanning the life
of the survey. Readers not familiar with our regions should refer to Figure 1 to
determine the ecological region where they hunt.
Many wildlife species are highly dependent on mast produced by trees
and shrubs. Energy available in mast is more important for survival of many
wildlife species than energy available in forage from agriculture crops and
herbaceous plants. Seeds and fruits from trees and shrubs are necessary for not
only overwinter survival, but also to assure that wildlife is in good physical
condition to reproduce. Because of the importance of mast conditions, biologists
and wildlife managers are able to forecast black bear, squirrel, white-tailed deer,
wild boar and wild turkey population changes and harvests.
Compared to the 2014 survey (Table 1), the mast index for all species
combined was up slightly. Last year beech, hickory and walnut were scare while
1oaks were abundant. This year, indices for oaks are down and indices for beech,
walnut and hickories are up. Compared to last year, indices for all oak species
decreased over 50 percent indicating a substantial decrease in oak production.
Scarlet oak decreased 76 percent compared to 2014. White, chestnut, black, red
and scarlet oaks should be scarce across the landscape. Statewide, beech did
great with a 234% increase compared to the poor crop in 2014. Walnut and
hickory followed a similar trend as beech, with increased production of nuts.
Walnut and hickory increased 38 and 119 percent, respectively.
For soft mast, apple was clearly abundant across the state and was 38
above the index for 2014. Hawthorn, crabapple and grape were noticeably
higher with percent increases of 50, 24, 34, respectively above 2014 values.
Sassafras increased 16 percent. Dogwood and black cherry were the only soft
mast that decreased from 2014.
When comparing all species, the 2015 index was 1% above last year and
slightly over the long-term trend (Fig. 2). Hickory, cherry and oaks (Fig.2) was
below the average with all oaks down 50% (Fig. 3). In 2014, the lack of beech,
hickory and walnut was offset by oak mast. Hickory was extremely good
statewide in 2015 with an index of 73. All hard mast species were down 8% but
right at their long-term average (Fig. 5).
Because mast abundance can vary at different locations, caution should
be exercised when comparing the abundance values of these indices especially
at the regional level. Ecological Region 1 showed the largest variation from last
year with a 27% reduction in total mast production (Table 3). Other regions were
close to their total average from last year but there were wide species changes
(Table 3). Nevertheless, the presence or absence of acorn production can be an
important predictor in harvest. Several factors can inflate or deflate the percent
change in the index. Therefore, comparisons to the long-term average should
give us a tempered result that is more representative to the true mast condition
(Table 4).
When the mast survey began in 1971, our main purpose was to use it to
forecast squirrel populations and hunting outlook. Current mast conditions
impact overwinter survival and reproductive success of many other wildlife
species.
It is recommended that hunters review the regional trends in mast as
shown in Tables 3 and 4 to learn of food conditions in their region of the State.
There are always some regional differences.
2015 Mast Survey Highlights
• All Species combined the mast index is 8% above the long-term average
2• All Hard Mast Species mast index is very close to the long-term average
• Oak mast is much lower than last year
• Very little difference in mast conditions between High and Low elevations
• Beech and Hickory are considerably higher than last year and the 44-year
average
• Apple, crabapple and hawthorn increased significantly in 2015
3Figure 1. Ecological regions of West Virginia.
4Figure 2. Indices of all mast species combined, 1971-2015.
5Figure 3. Indices of hickory, black cherry and oaks combined, 1971-2015.
6Figure 4. Indices of all oaks combined, 1971-2015.
7Figure 5. Index of all hard mast species, 1971-2015.
8Table 1. 2015 statewide index compared to 2014 mast index.
Percent
Species 2014 2015 Difference
Beech 17 57 234
Walnut 37 51 38
Hickory 33 73 119
White Oak 54 24 -55
Chestnut Oak 43 24 -43
Black/Red Oak 62 19 -69
Scarlet Oak 54 13 -76
Black Cherry 67 40 -40
Grape 46 61 34
Scrub Oak 35 44 27
Yellow Poplar 39 39 0
Hawthorn 43 64 50
CrabApple 57 71 24
Dogwood 62 59 -5
Blackberry 52 56 7
Greenbrier 36 38 6
Sassafras 33 38 16
Apple 57 78 38
All Species 46 47 1
9Table 2. 2015 statewide index compared to 44-year average mast index.
Percent
Species Avg Index 2015 Difference
Beech 38 57 48
Walnut 37 51 37
Hickory 47 73 56
White Oak 38 24 -36
Chestnut Oak 33 24 -27
Black/Red Oak 43 19 -55
Scarlet Oak 34 13 -61
Black Cherry 46 40 -14
Grape 41 61 50
Scrub Oak 36 44 24
Yellow Poplar 47 39 -16
Hawthorn 48 64 35
CrabApple 53 71 32
Dogwood 48 59 23
Blackberry 51 56 10
Greenbrier 40 38 -4
Sassafras 36 38 6
Apple 56 78 39
All Species 43 47 8
10Table 3. Percent difference in mast index by species between 2014 and 2015 by
ecological region.
Ecological Region
Species 1 2 3 4 5 6
Beech 300 688 603 647 19 174
Walnut -25 161 32 78 22 14
Hickory 147 187 124 231 39 56
White Oak -68 -48 -76 -46 -64 -31
Chestnut Oak -55 32 -81 -38 -51 -16
Black/Red Oak -76 -58 -83 -61 -54 -81
Scarlet Oak -94 -63 -83 -60 -61 -80
Black Cherry -19 -25 -27 -86 -33 -23
Grape -19 20 37 52 66 10
Scrub Oak 43 0 N/A -100 N/A N/A
Yellow Poplar -13 43 -6 28 -29 -14
Hawthorn 275 74 144 18 30 23
CrabApple -8 41 3 27 48 -11
Dogwood -43 -7 10 -7 12 -3
Blackberry 5 33 -13 -27 51 14
Greenbrier -49 -29 8 -18 15 32
Sassafras -22 -44 -2 35 43 19
Apple -6 19 68 37 122 66
All Species -27 15 -3 -4 3 -4
11Table 4. Percent Change in 2015 mast index by species from average of years
(1971-2014) by ecological region.
Ecological Region
Species 1 2 3 4 5 6
Beech 146 36 82 16 10 60
Walnut -24 140 7 36 27 59
Hickory 61 82 52 42 35 58
White Oak -59 -21 -71 -29 -34 -6
Chestnut Oak -50 -12 -74 -6 -22 0
Black/Red Oak -67 -33 -77 -47 -38 -63
Scarlet Oak -91 -30 -71 -44 -52 -55
Black Cherry 2 -19 -10 -79 2 30
Grape -6 9 45 35 100 82
Scrub Oak 17 38 -100 -100 133 -100
Yellow Poplar -9 -5 -10 -30 -49 1
Hawthorn 59 33 94 1 29 55
CrabApple 20 47 47 23 17 10
Dogwood -18 33 14 25 28 28
Blackberry 10 45 -7 -20 20 25
Greenbrier -74 -38 -24 -4 -3 28
Sassafras -15 -50 -32 20 35 34
Apple 16 61 55 32 41 25
All Species -19 18 -3 -2 12 23
122015 West Virginia Hunter Outlook
Christopher Ryan, Colin Carpenter, Michael Peters and Eric Richmond
Black Bear
Opportunities to hunt black bears in the Mountain State have never been
greater. In 2015, hunters will have the opportunity to hunt bears during 3
different early firearms seasons with or without dogs in 23 counties spanning 22
days. Bear archery season is open for 3 months. There will be 24 counties open
to concurrent deer and bear hunting during the buck firearms season, and every
county in the state is open for a December firearms season (with our without
dogs allowed depending on county). In 2015, we are predicting a bear harvest
that is similar to 2014.
Hunters who use dogs will have more opportunity to hunt bears than ever
before in 2015. Hunters in Logan, McDowell, Mingo and Wyoming counties will
be able to hunt bears with or without dogs from September 5 – 12. Mountain
county hunters will be able to hunt bears with or without dogs from September 19
– 25. Finally, hunters in Boone, Fayette, Kanawha and Raleigh counties will be
able to hunt bears with or without dogs from October 3 – 9. Hunters who use
dogs also have the traditional December season in all or parts of 25 counties. In
addition, hunters will be allowed to harvest a second bear as long as one of the
bears comes from Boone, Fayette, Kanawha, Logan, McDowell, Mingo, Nicholas
or Raleigh counties.
Firearms hunters who do not use dogs will also have many opportunities
to harvest a bear. For the third time, hunters will be allowed to harvest a bear
during the buck-firearms season by permit in 18 counties. In 11 counties,
hunters will be allowed to harvest a bear during the buck-firearms season without
applying for a permit prior to the season.
Archery hunting success rates depend greatly on mast conditions.
Harvests decrease in years of mast abundance and increase in years of mast
scarcity. The 2015 bear archery harvest will increase over the number of bears
killed in 2014. Hunters who focus their efforts in beech and hickory stands
should increase their odds for success.
The bear harvest in the traditional December firearms season should be
lower than the harvest of 2014. Although beech and hickory produced well in
2015, much of that mast will be gone by December and bruins will be entering
their dens.
13White-tailed Deer
The total white-tailed deer harvest should be higher in 2015 than it
was in 2014. Although antlerless seasons have been reduced in some counties
in 2015, increased reproduction and survival as a result of the bumper oak mast
crop of 2014 means deer numbers will be higher. In addition, the lack of oak
mast in 2015 means deer will be more visible in fields and more susceptible to
harvest, which will lead to an increase in total deer harvest.
We are predicting a higher archery harvest in 2015. Oak mast heavily
influences deer movements and harvest rates. The lack of oak mast in 2015 will
make deer easier to pattern and easier to harvest.
The buck harvest should be higher in 2015 than in 2014. The 30%
reduction in the 2014 buck harvest means that many bucks survived the season
and some of them should be available for harvest in 2015. In addition, the
percentage of yearling bucks in the harvest in 2014 was near 30%. This means
many bucks are surviving to reach older age classes and the chance to kill a
large-antlered buck has increased.
Antlerless harvests should be similar in 2015. Although antlerless
hunting opportunities have decreased in 2015, hunters should be more
successful due to a lack of oak mast. Deer (especially later in the season) will be
more visible in fields as available mast is consumed. Deer that are more visible
are usually more vulnerable to harvest.
The muzzleloader harvest should be similar in 2015. Muzzleloader
harvest will be influenced by both participation and weather. Hunters who have
already put a deer or two in the freezer may be less likely to participate if weather
conditions are nasty.
Wild Turkey
Counties with a spring harvest of 0.75 gobblers per square mile or more
qualify for a two-week fall season (October 10-17 and October 26-October 31).
Counties that qualified went from 7 last year to 6 this year and include Brooke,
Hancock, Mason, Ohio, Preston, and Wood counties. Counties with a spring
harvest of 0.5 gobblers per square mile up to 0.74 per square mile are eligible for
a one-week fall season (October 10-17) and includes Harrison, Jackson, Lewis,
Marion, Marshall, Monongalia, Pleasants, Putnam, Summers, Tyler, Upshur,
Wirt, and Wyoming counties. Last year 13 counties were open to the one-week
fall season too, but several have changed. Be sure to check 2015-16 Hunting
and Trapping Regulations Summary for these changes. The harvest in the “non-
traditional” counties is expected to be similar to last year.
14A typical West Virginia winter with good oak mast production last fall
probably helped to insure good winter survival. A mild spring means that many
of the first nesting attempts were probably successful with good poult survival.
However, 2015 brood reports were down in the traditional fall mountain counties.
Overall the oaks did not fair well this year which may concentrate the birds
around areas where there is oak and beech mast. Overall the 2015 fall turkey
harvest is predicted to be similar to the fall 2014 season.
Ruffed Grouse
Last year’s mast production probably resulted in good over winter survival
of adult birds but brood reports were down this year. Dogwoods, grapes,
hawthorn, crabapple, and beech did very well this year and are well above the
long-term averages in almost all regions. Areas containing these mast producers
would be good location to start looking for grouse. If late season weather
conditions are normal, it is predicted that flushing rates and harvests should
be similar to last year across the state.
Cottontail Rabbits
Cover for rabbit is the most important element to their survival during the
fall and winter. Last winter was more of a typical winter for West Virginia
following a wet 2014 summer with good production and winter survival and carry-
over was likely good. However, after two previous years with wet summers and
increased production the summer of 2015 dried out in August. Grasses and
forbs that provide food and cover dried up as well and production and survival
probably decreased. Hunters should expect lower harvests than last year.
Gray and Fox Squirrels
Squirrel numbers are a direct result of food conditions from the previous
year. The abundant food conditions of 2014 resulted in excellent overwinter
survival and numerous healthy litters of both gray and fox squirrels. The reported
“spottiness” of acorns for 2015 will have squirrels concentrated around food
sources such as beech and hickory, which produced very well. Bushytail
hunters should expect excellent hunting conditions throughout the entire
2015-2016 season.
Raccoon
Better hunting is forecasted for 2015. Mast conditions have an impact
on raccoon reproduction and overwinter survival. Excellent food conditions in
2014 resulted in good carryover and reproduction which results in a higher
15population for hunters in 2015. Lower oak and black cherry production will
concentrate raccoons this year. The end result, expect to see more of these
masked bandits being treed and trapped this year.
Wild Boar
Like squirrels, wild boar numbers are a direct result of the previous years’
mast conditions. Good hard mast production will result in more frequent and
healthier litters. Excellent mast conditions in 2014 were favorable for
reproduction and expected harvests in 2015. Lower and spottier food sources in
2015 will tend to concentrate boar around available food sources. Scouting for
producing beech groves and oak stands, along with the characteristic hog rooting
sign will pay dividends as peak leaf fall will cover fresh sign at the onset of the
October firearm season. Archers have greater success throughout the season
when mast conditions have pigs keying in on available food sources. A higher
wild boar harvest is expected for the 2015 seasons.
16Table 1. 2015 quick check chart of predicted statewide wildlife harvests.
Species Higher Similar Lower
Gray and Fox Squirrels X
Cottontail Rabbits X
Ruffed Grouse X
Raccoon X
White-tailed Deer X
Wild Boar X
Wild Turkey X
Bear X
Table 2. 2015 quick check chart of deer harvest forecast by region and season.
Season
Region
Bow Buck Antlerless Muzzleloader Total Kill
1 Higher Higher Similar Similar Higher
2 Higher Higher Lower Similar Higher
3 Higher Higher Similar Similar Higher
4 Higher Higher Lower Similar Higher
5 Higher Higher Similar Similar Higher
6 Higher Higher Higher Similar Higher
Statewide Higher Higher Similar Similar Higher
17APPENDIX 18
19
20
Mast
Survey
Your purchase of
Wildlife Resources Hunting equipment
Supports
Wildlife Restoration
West Virginia Division of
Natural Resources
324 Fourth Avenue
South Charleston, WV 25303
It is the policy of the Division of Natural Resources to provide its facilities, services,
(304) 558-2771 programs, and employment opportunities to all persons without regard to sex, race, age,
religion, national origin or ancestry, disability, or other protected group status.
Fax: (304) 558-3147
400
09/15
Bulletin 15-03
……………………………………………………………….
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