What next? 2020: Poland, Europe and the World in the last months of the year - Polityka Insight
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
2020: What next? Poland, Europe and the World in the last months of the year
Dear Readers,
“The one thing we can say with great certainty is that the ever-present uncer-
tainty is constant, and will accompany us in the coming decade”. These are
the words with which I opened the Risk and Trends 2020 conference on Jan-
uary 31. This was right on target, although it is not a remarkable feat to find the
future to be unpredictable. In January, I spoke about a decade of instability,
about an acceleration of events, and about attention spans that have been re-
duced to a bare minimum. I also spoke of the best way to deal with this new
reality. And these words also seem to be relevant today.
If 2020 is a storm and Poland is a boat battered by incoming waves, we at
Polityka Insight would like to be the crow’s nest. We don’t count the waves,
we won’t predict when the sun will come out, we don’t have a map that will
lead to safe, dry land. Our ambition is to stand out above the chaos, see just a bit
more, and deliver to you, as soon as possible, the knowledge of coming events,
dangers and glimpses of hope.
This is the reason we have prepared this publication which tries to antici-
pate the final months of this crazy year. Many of the things we wrote will come
true, some will not. In the meantime, unexpected swans will flow in, whose
existence we didn’t even imagine.
I invite you to read our analyses and treat this publication as a tool that
will help come to terms with reality and adjust your actions and plans accord-
ingly. I believe that together we will get through these tempestuous times, see-
ing and understanding what is most important.
See you on the road towards better times.
Andrzej Bobiński
Managing Director
Polityka Insight
3
w
Polityka Insight
>> Government
The government
The coalition faces program
strengthen the Prime Minister and weaken Ziobro
-related decisions.
and Gowin, whose parties would lose one ministry
After getting re-elected in 2019, PiS did not re- each. MinSci, MinEdu and MinSpor (absorbed by
is waiting for the
veal its plans for rebuilding the state so as not to Piotr Glinski’s MinCult), MinInfra (taken over by
alienate its voters before the presidential election. MinStat), MinEnv (set to merge with MinClim,
In a way, this autumn will be the beginning of the which would be renamed MinClimEner), MinMar
parliamentary term. PiS has announced a pro- and MinFund would disappear as separate enti-
gram offensive, but there is a dispute on the right ties. The tasks of MinDig would be taken over by
agreement in the
about what course the coalition should take. The PMChan. However, these plans have encountered
hawks – represented by Zbigniew Ziobro – are in resistance from both of PiS’s coalition members
favour of heating up the ideological dispute with (Gowin and Ziobro have formed a tactical alliance
the left (fighting against „LGBT ideology,” far-left on this issue) and some of PiS politicians who do
coalition
politics, etc.), emphasising Poland’s distinctiveness not like the idea of strengthening Gliński. The
in the EU and promoting bills in the most radical greater the friction within the coalition in connec-
form possible. This direction does not appeal to tion with the reshuffle, the harder it will be to de-
the proponents of a softer course, including Ma- velop and carry out a program offensive.
teusz Morawiecki, Piotr Gliński and Porozumienie
(Agreement) head Jarosław Gowin. PiS, Solidarna
Polska (Solidarity Poland) and Porozumienie have
Some politicians will gain clout,
PiS plans to deal with issues such as the had preliminary discussions about the program for
the autumn – each party presented a list of projects
others will weaken.
Morawiecki will probably be among this autumn’s
media and courts. In order to implement it is interested in. The coalition negotiations in Sep-
tember will determine what will be implemented
„winners,” especially if, as unofficial announce-
ments would have it, he becomes PiS deputy lead-
these ambitious plans, it needs to reach
in the autumn and what shape it will take. er after the party conference. The same is true of
MinDef Mariusz Błaszczak, who is also expected
to become Deputy Prime Minister. Gowin will re-
a deal with its coalition partners and carry Key issue – cabinet reshuffle.
In an interview for the Polish Press Agency,
turn to the government as Deputy PM (and proba-
bly MinDev), which will mean a demotion of cur-
out the cabinet reshuffle in an efficient Kaczyński said the cabinet would slim down to
about 12 ministries, which would improve the gov-
rent deputy PM and MinDev Jadwiga Emilewicz.
An important role will be played by the head of
manner. ernment’s operations. In political terms, this would the newly-formed MinEnerClim (the current
WHO WILL GAIN POWER, WHO WILL LOSE IT
Jadwiga Zbigniew Andrzej
Emilewicz Ziobro Adamczyk
Wojciech Szacki
Head of Political Desk
Mateusz Jarosław Mariusz
Morawiecki Gowin Błaszczak
4 5
Daily intelligence.
Government
Stay ahead of what’s relevant.
MinClim Michał Kurtyka will probably leave the
cabinet). However, the key to the coalition’s fu-
ture will be PiS’s relations with Ziobro: they are The Ministry of Justice’s projects
currently at their worst since the United Right concerning changes to the justice
was founded. According to our interviewees, if
Ziobro does not cutback his media expansion and
system are waiting for the green
backstage attacks on the PM and PiS, an open war light from Kaczyński. The plans
might erupt on the right.
involve flattening the structure
of the justice system.
Deconcentration of media
ownership.
A bill on this matter is being drafted in MinCult ture of the justice system (two of the three levels
(the person in charge is Deputy Minister Pawel Le- remain, making it possible to move some judges
wandowski) and assumes using the French model into retirement) and standardising the position
Poland’s leading analytical service for business leaders,
as a basis. Politically, this would be beneficial be- of a judge. MinJus also wants to introduce the in-
cause it would weaken the largest private media stitution of magistrates to settle minor civil and
policy makers and diplomats.
corporations, which tend to be anti-government criminal cases. All these changes would be made
and are often owned by foreign shareholders (TVN, under the banner of fighting the „special caste”
website Onet, tabloid Fakt). The draft has not been and will surely result in protests by the opposition
made public yet, while its shape will depend on and judges.
both Kaczyński’s political will and how effective
the embassies of the countries concerned are in
exerting pressure. On August 28, US ambassador
The issue of dividing Mazowsze
Georgette Mosbacher spoke out against the decon-
will resurface.
centration of media (the Americans own TVN and MinInt is finishing work on a bill on the admin-
US investors have a stake in Ringier Axel Springer, istrative division of Mazowieckie; two regions
which publishes Fakt, Newsweek and Onet). If PiS would be cut out of the present voivodeship:
gives in to the US pressure, the law will only have Warsaw (capital plus neighbouring districts) and A source of daily intelligence Weekly sectoral service for financial
a limited scope (for example, it may not affect the Mazowieckie (with cities such as Radom, Płock for energy sector professionals professionals, as well as advisers
current state of the media market, but will only and Siedlce). The creation of the new provinces and their advisers. and lawyers working in and for the sector.
concern its future). would necessitate holding local elections for two – In Polish – – In Polish –
regional assemblies, enabling PiS to gain power
in the Mazowiecki Voivodeship (PO would prob-
Ziobro supporters want to comple- ably win in Warsaw). The local elections would Order a free trial:
te changes in the judiciary. also be the first test of the popularity of Szymon
The MinJus’s projects concerning changes to the Hołownia’s movement. •
justice system are waiting for the green light from Dagmara Bochyńska
Kaczyński. The plans involve flattening the struc- Senior Sales & Client Service Manager
d.bochynska@politykainsight.pl
(+48) 691 916 986
6
Polityka Insight
>> Parties
There will be
PiS will change its statute and hold head of the Civic Institute think tank, which has
internal elections. been inactive for several years. In the Autumn,
The key autumn event for PiS will be the confer- Rafał Trzaskowski will inaugurate a grassroots
changes in party
ence at which the changes to the statute will be movement, which will likely be called Nowa Sol-
adopted and Jarosław Kaczyński will be elected idarność (New Solidarity). In the weeks to come,
party chair for another term. A smaller body – an expert institution will also be launched as a
the Political Council – will approve Kaczyński’s part of Trzaskowski’s movement.
nominations for new PiS deputy chairs (one of
leadership
them will be Mateusz Morawiecki) and mem-
bers of the Political Committee. The changes to
Hołownia can present his
the statute are intended to help rebuild the par-
parliamentary team.
ty with the intent of rejuvenating it and prepar- On September 3, Szymon Hołownia is supposed to
ing it for the next term. Kaczyński is consider- present a law on politicians’ salaries and party subsi-
ing the introduction of a new type of leadership dies, followed by public consultations of the project.
amongst the constituencies – the heads would Also in September, the Internet radio of the Poland
In the coming autumn PiS will make be employees of the PiS headquarters on Now-
ogrodzka Street who are not MPs. These plans
2050 movement will be launched. In the Autumn,
changes in its statute. KO, in turn, will choose
could be jeopardised by the epidemic; if the sit-
uation deteriorates significantly in the autumn,
POLITICAL PARTIES’
AVERAGE SUPPORT
a new caucus head, while SLD and Wiosna
the conference may be moved to the spring of
2021. (per cent, July-August)
are expected to merge into a single party. KO will change caucus head,
Trzaskowski will launch 42,4 PiS
his movement.
Wojciech Szacki Following the summer vacation, Borys Bud-
27,3 KO
ka will resign as head of the KO parliamentary
Head of Political Desk
caucus; MPs and senators will choose his re-
placement. It is uncertain when exactly this will
11,4 Polska 2050
happen – the party leadership would like to hold
the elections with all MPs present in one room
Joanna Sawicka (this would be over 170 people), which will be
7,5 Konfederacja
Senior Analyst for Political Affairs possible only when the threat of the epidemic
is reduced. PO also wants to introduce statuto-
ry changes in autumn, which will help the par-
5,9 Lewica
ty open up to new social groups (changes in the
statute are introduced by a national convention
Ryszard Łuczyn
of several hundred members). At the end of Sep- 4,0 PSL
Political Affairs Analyst tember and the beginning of October, the party
will present an idea for reconstruction and a new Source: IBRIS, United Surveys, July and August 2020.
8 9
Parties
In the autumn, Rafał Trzaskowski will inaugurate a grassroots
movement, which will likely be called Nowa Solidarność
(New Solidarity).
Hołownia will probably present the MPs who will PSL will elect local
represent him in the Sejm. According to our in- leadership.
formation, former Chief of Staff Jacek Cichocki Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz’s term as PSL
and the election plenipotentiary Michał Ko- leader expires in November. According to the
bosko were responsible for negotiations with statute, in order to elect his successor (or re-
parliamentarians. However, the former pres- elect him), the PSL congress will have to be
idential candidates’ collaborators deny infor- held in the autumn. However, the election of
mation about attracting new MP’s. the local leadership that appoints delegates to
the congress was delayed as a result of the pan-
demic. They will be held in the autumn, while
Two conferences on the Left the party’s new leadership will not be elected
will be held.
Briefings & Boardroom
until the following spring. The new political
A conference will take place on December 12, season will also see a revival of questions about
at which point a formal merger of the SLD and the cohesion of the Polish Coalition. Kukiz’15
presentations
Wiosna will be announced; this will lead to the politicians in the PSL-KP caucus are ruling out
creation of the New Left. The change of SLD’s individual transfers to the United Right, but do
statute – which will serve as the „foundation” not completely reject the possibility of a rap-
of the new party – has yet to be approved by prochement with PiS if their leader decides to
the court. The Left Coalition’s politicians hope pursue such a policy. Paweł Kukiz himself plans
that this will happen shortly after the summer to tour the country in the autumn; he intends to
LEARN MORE ON ISSUES THAT MATTER TO YOU.
vacation. Prior to this, a program congress of talk to voters in county towns about changing
the Left Coalition – as an ideological formation the electoral system to a mixed one and organ-
Meet with our analysts to get in-depth knowledge
rather than a party – will take place. According ising national referenda. • on political and economic topics most important
to Krzysztof Gawkowski, the head of the SLD, to the well-being of your business.
Wiosna and Razem Caucus, politicians such
as Bernie Sanders, the would-be Democratic
candidate for the US presidential election and
Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, have
been invited to the congress. At the beginning
of September, Razem will form its new manage-
Want to find out more about our tailored briefings?
ment board. Amongst the five people chosen for Contact us:
the position, only one is an MP - Paulina Mat-
ysiak. Politicians such as Adrian Zandberg or
Marcelina Zawisza could not stand for reelec- Maciej Michalik
tion due to the term limit. Research Projects Manager
m.michalik@politykainsight.pl
(+48) 22 436 73 12
10
Polityka Insight
>> Legislative process
The legislative
Holding law and new powers of Finance will also introduce improvements for
for supervisory boards. companies as part of changes to the VAT Act (oth-
erwise known as the so-called SLIM VAT). The
In the autumn, the parliament will discuss package will involve the reduction of the tax base
offensive will
amendments to the Commercial Companies Code as a result of a discount obtained, even before a
prepared by the MinStat Committee to Reform corrected invoice has been obtained. It will also
Corporate Governance. They will introduce a new include details of the binding information on the
definition of the „commercial group.” It consists current rate and introduce e-circulation of Tax
begin in the autumn
of a parent company and companies it controls, Free documents. MinFin is also working on the
which – in accordance with the provisions of their introduction of the so-called Estonian CIT.
statutes or contracts – will base their operation on
a common economic strategy (the so-called inter-
est of a commercial group). The parent company New instruments for financial
will issue binding instructions to the subsidiary; institutions.
it will also be able to request information about its Following the summer vacation, the parliament
activities at any time. At the same time, supervi- will deal with the amendment to the act on bonds
The government will show changes sory boards will be able to commission third par-
ty advisers to conduct research on the company’s
prepared by the Ministry of Finance. It intro-
duced the so-called Contingent Convertibles
in Polish tax structure. MPs will
assets or a specific area of its activity. (CoCo) into the Polish legal system. In the event
of problems with the institutions that issued
them, such securities may be converted into their
additionally work on the new electronic Changes in CIT and VAT.
MinDev from the MinFin wants to present CIT
shares. Bonds with a nominal value of at least
EUR 100,000 will not have a maturity date. Their
communications law and the support tax relief for companies implementing new tech-
nologies (e.g. robots, 3D printers). Companies
issuers will periodically pay interest which, with-
in several years, should cover the nominal value
for offshore wind-turbines.
will be able to apply for co-financing of training of the bonds. The new type of securities will be is-
for employees who operate automated produc- sued by banks, brokerage houses, domestic insur-
tion lines. In doing so, the government wants to ance and reinsurance companies. It is intended to
promote production automation. The Ministry help institutions that, as a result of the pandemic,
will be affected by a decline in solvency.
Facilities for investors and those
struggling with drought.
MinDev is to reveal the amendment to the Act on
Special Economic Zones (the so-called strategic
The Ministry of Finance will investor’s passport) introducing facilitations for
Wojciech Pawłuszko introduce the SLIM VAT, and it investors who want to operate in the Polish In-
vestment Zone. Companies might receive pref-
Senior Analyst for Legal Affairs will be working on the introduction erential treatment when, for example, they hire
of the so-called Estonian CIT. foreign employees. At the same time, MinMar is
12 13
Legislative process The legislative offensive will begin in the autumn
LAWS RELATED TO THE ECONOMY THAT WILL BE DEALT WITH
to present a bill on investments that counteract Telecommunications Law and broaden the pow- BY THE PARLIAMENT IN THE AUTUMN
the effects of droughts. In order to shorten the ers of the president of the Office of Electronic
development of such projects, voivodes will issue Communications (UKE). The regulator will an-
permits to implement investments in this area. alyse the situation on the country’s electronic Title of legislation Who is responsible Legislative stage
MinMar is also planning changes to the Water communication services market, and then will
Law to promote natural retention and simplify be able to impose various obligations on individ- Draft Law Amending the Code of Ministry of State Assets public and ministerial
the procedures for building water facilities in ual companies by ordering them, for instance, 1. Commercial Companies and Certain consultations
forests. A special act is also supposed to allow to make their infrastructure available to other other laws (UD113)
the legalisation of existing water consumption entities. New obligations will also be imposed on
facilities. telecoms – they will have to, for example, present Draft Law Amending the Act on Corporate Ministry of Development arrangements within
customers with concise summaries of the terms 2. Income Tax (before it is included on the list and Ministry of Finance the department
of the contract they sign for their services. This of the government’s legislative works)
More support for RES. is meant to increase consumer protection and
The parliament will deal with the so-called Spe- strengthen their position compared to operators. Draft Law Amending the Act on VAT Ministry of Finance public and ministerial
3.
cial Offshore Act prepared by the MinClim. It is and the Banking Law (UD118) consultations
intended to help energy companies develop off-
shore wind energy. The government will provide Changes in the regulations Draft Law Amending the Act on Special Ministry of Development arrangements within
subsidies for the production of electricity from on waste. 4. Economic Zones (before it is included on the the department
offshore farms by covering the difference between Come autumn, the parliament will also deal with list of the government’s legislative work)
the cost of its production and the wholesale price the draft amendment to the act on maintaining
(this is the so-called contract for difference). Sup- cleanliness and order in municipalities developed Draft Law on Investment Aimed to Ministry of Marine arrangements within
port will apply to projects with a total capacity of by MinClim. As part of the reform, the period of 5. Counteract the Effects of a Drought Economy and Inland the department
up to 5.9 GW. Investors will also be able to obtain permissible waste storage by local governments (UD101) Navigation
environmental decision and building permits will be extended from one to three years before
faster; the act will also introduce a tax on offshore such waste is sent to an incineration plant. The Draft Law on Promoting Generation Ministry of Climate public and ministerial
farms. In the autumn, parliament will also deal annual fees for the use of the environment will 6. of Electricity at Offshore Wind Farms consultations
with the amendment to the RES Act, which ex- be frozen. The method of calculating the level of (UD34)
tends until June 30, 2045 the ultimate deadline recycling is to be more favourable for municipali-
for payment of support for RES under the so- ties, which will allow them to avoid high penalties Draft Law on Amending the Act on Ministry of Climate public and ministerial
called system of discounts for prosumers, as well for failing to meet the thresholds for the amount 7. Renewable Energy Sources and Certain consultations
as the operation of the feed-in tariff system and of processed waste. The changes are to lower the Other lLws (UD107)
energy price subsidies. costs of the municipal system. As a result, the
Draft Law – the Electronic Ministry of Digitisation public and ministerial
price of waste collection for the country’s resi- 8.
dents will also decrease. • Communications Law (UC45) consultations
New Electronic
Communication Law. Draft law amending the clean and order act Ministry of Climate arrangements within
9. in municipalities (before it is included on the
On August 28, MinDig’s consultations on a pro- the department
list of the government’s legislative work)
ject the implements the European Electronic
Communications Code into Polish law conclud-
Draft Law Emending the Act on Bonds and Ministry of Finance public and ministerial
ed, while in September parliament will discuss 10.
Certain Other Laws (UC32) consultations
the draft legislation. The act is set to replace the
14 15
Polityka Insight
>> Macroeconomic forecast
Poland will recover
Recession will last two quarters. and smaller investments of businesses due to
staff shortages and regulatory changes.
PI supports its earlier forecast of a short reces-
sion – in Q3, GDP growth will be negative (-0.8
from the recession
per cent year-over-year), but we will see slight
Good economic situation will
economic growth (0.1 per cent) again in Q4.
not return to trade.
Consumption, limited by negative expectations Until the end of the year, sales growth will re-
and aversion to buying certain services, will on- main negative, but decreases will be much mild-
at the end of the year
ly begin to grow again in 2021. Therefore, the er than during the pandemic. Concerns about fu-
role of the driving force of the economy will be ture income will prevent consumers from large
taken over by public spending, supported by the spending (such as buying a car), and limited so-
positive impact of foreign trade (higher export cial activity and fewer visits to shops will reduce
growth than import growth). At the end of the the number of small, spontaneous purchases.
year, in turn, the scale of declines in investments The best results will be recorded in the sale of
will deepen. This is because the effects of the furniture, sporting equipment, electronics and
pandemic overlapped with previous trends: com- household appliances because people, who spend
Consumption and investments in Poland pletion of infrastructure investments financed
from the EU budget perspective for 2014-2020
more time at home, will still want to improve
their level of comfort. Sales increases can also be
will be in decline till the end of the year,
GDP GROWTH STRUCTURE IN POLAND
but the economy will exit recession due to
public spending and rebounding exports.
Change in invento- Investment Public expenditure Consumption Net exports GDP growth
ries (pp.) (pp.) (pp.) (pp.) (pp.) (per cent)
15
Unemployment will increase slightly,
while inflation will remain stable.
10
5
0
Hanna Cichy
Business Analyst
-5
-10
Adam Czerniak
Chief Economist, -15
2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4
Director for Research
Source: GUS, PI.
16 17
Macroeconomic forecast Poland will recover from the recession at the end of the year
INFLATION FORECAST In Q3, GDP growth will be negative, but we will see
core inflation food energy carriers infation CPI
slight economic growth again in Q4; inflation will remain
around 3 per cent.
5
4 Number of unemployed will not fall Services will still be expensive.
below one million. By the end of the year, inflation will remain
3
The return of most children to kindergartens around 3 per cent. The record high, 4 per cent core
and schools will free parents up to work; so far, inflation will remain the main component of price
they have been benefitting from care allowanc- growth. It will decline slightly only at the end of
2
es. As a result, employment in Q4 will be slightly the year due to statistical effects (an increase in
higher than in Q3 and lower by about 0.3 per cent core inflation at the end of 2019). The rate of con-
1 compared to a year ago. Come autumn, regis- sumer services price growth will remain high due
tered unemployment will amount to 6.2 per cent to high operating costs, especially labour costs,
0 at the end of the year, compared to 6 per cent in and the supply constraints related to the pandem-
August (following a temporary drop in Septem- ic. Fuel prices will rise steadily, although they will
-1
ber). In addition to people who have completed remain below last year’s level. Food prices will be
their seasonal activities in agriculture and con- relatively stable; a good harvest will translate to a
2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 struction, labour offices will receive beneficiar- slower growth in the prices of vegetables, fruit and
ies of the expiring solidarity allowance, as well as bread. The seasonal development of the ASF epi-
Source: GUS, PI.
some economically inactive people, encouraged demic, in turn, will result in an increase in pork
by a higher allowance and improving economic prices. •
expected at the end of the year; consumers can scale of industrial production will be hampered situation, or freed from caring responsibilities
stockpile in anticipation of price increases next by the increased employee absenteeism (quar- by the opening of educational institutions. Em-
year as a result of the introduction of the trade antine, sick leave, child care in case of returning ployment reductions in gastronomy, tourism and
tax and sugary drinks tax. Demand will contin- to remote education), as well as concerns about recreational services are also possible. Similar to
ue to be low in consumer services, especially in reduced demand, especially in the area of invest- the previous year, in anticipation of an increase
catering, tourism, culture and entertainment. ment goods and vehicles. Import-intensive and in the minimum wage in 2021, employers will
Business services will be in a better shape, al- export-oriented industries will also be sensi- freeze increases at the end of the year, limiting
though problems may be experienced by the tive to the epidemic situation in the countries of the dynamics of average wages.
transport, marketing, and consulting industries trading partners – temporary closure of factories
and, together with a decrease in investment, also and difficulties in international transport will
by architectural industry. run the risk of forced downtime in Poland. The
crisis in construction will deepen due to falling
demand for flats and office space. The industry
Industry will stagnate, construc- will not feel the impact of the planned increase
tion will be in recession. in public investments in road and rail infrastruc-
In the second half of the year, the industrial sec- ture until next year.
tor will return to positive but low dynamics (an
average of 0.5 per cent on an annual basis). The
18 19Polityka Insight
>> Economy
One of the projects of the Solidarity Transport Hub (CPK)
The government will
use investments to
strengthen the economy
Projects postponed due to the pandemic Government will want In the autumn, there might be two
will accelerate. This will include mergers, to accelerate public investments.
big company debuts on the main
The idea is to strengthen the message that the
the construction of a food holding and ruling party is doing everything to help the Polish
economy to recover from the crisis. After the gov-
floor of the GPW: Canal+
and Allegro, which would change
preparations for the 5G auctions. ernment increased its spending limit under the
National Roads Construction Programme in June
the unfavourable trend.
The problems of small banks will intensify. from PLN 142.2 billion to nearly PLN 164 billion,
GDDKiA said that it would announce additional
Large stock market debuts
are also expected.
tenders for the construction of 222 km of roads by
the end of the year. In the following months, ten- From the beginning of the year to the end of Ju-
ders will cover 342 km of roads (in total, 575 km ly, only two companies made their debuts on the
in 2020). The government will also soon decide main floor of the WSE, while 14 entities withdrew
on the financing of preparations for the construc- from it. However, the unfavourable trend can re-
tion of the Central Communication Port (CPK) by verse. In mid-July, Canal+ Polska announced
2023, which will open the way to the purchase of that it had already submitted its prospectus to the
Hanna Cichy land for the airport and new railroads. The pre- Polish Financial Supervision Authority (KNF), al-
Business Analyst liminary draft resolution of the CouMin provided though the final decision on the debut has yet to
for about PLN 12 billion for this purpos. be made. It will depend on market conditions. Un-
officially, it is said that a package of Allegro shares,
the largest e-commerce platform in Poland, could
also be listed on the stock exchange. The compa-
Leszek Baj ny’s shares could be worth as much as PLN 8.5-11
Head of Business Desk billion. This would be the biggest debut since PZU
in 2010.
20 21Economy The government will use investments to strengthen economy
Banks will struggle with a drop in Small and mid-sized employers will
profitability. introduce PPKs.
With the end of credit holidays (suspension of The deadline for choosing a financial institu-
instalment payments usually for three months), tion and signing an agreement on managing
By the end of the year, Orlen is banks will learn the real scale of their customers’ employee capital plans (PPK) is October 27.
planning to apply to the European financial problems. Already in Q2, some of them By November 10, they have to sign contracts for
noticed worse repayment of cash loans for indi- the management of PPKs on behalf of employ-
Commission for permission to take vidual customers and loans for smaller companies. ees. Financial institutions will have to serve
over PGNiG. This will translate into an increase in the number about 80,000 entities at the same time. Train-
of loan restructurings and increased spending on ing in PPKs for numerous companies scattered
Parliament will work soft debt collection. Banks will also struggle with across the country will be done mostly remotely
the requirements, with the most likely increase the commitment of further provisions for litiga- through webinars, videos and brochures. Reach-
on two budgets.
in investment requirements for new transmitters tion with frank loan holders, a decrease in inter- ing some of the employees in this way may be
The Sejm is already amending the budget for providing 5G coverage. The requirements related est income (the effect of interest rate cuts) and low difficult, but participation in the PPK will be en-
2020, while the Social Dialogue Council is con- to cybersecurity of the telecommunications net- demand from companies. Idea Bank and Getin couraged by the stock market rebound and low
sulting the draft budget for 2021. The deficit is work will also be tightened. Possible changes may Noble may be in a particularly difficult situation, interest rates, which reduce the attractiveness
expected to reach PLN 109.3 billion this year also include allocating a larger part of the band to but so too are Alior Bank (in Q2, it had the highest of traditional forms of saving. In turn, the im-
and up to PLN 82.3 billion next year. Next year’s auction and lifting the bidding limit of one frequen- loss in history) and cooperative banks. plementation of PPKs in micro-companies and
budget revenues, in turn, are expected to reach cy block by one operator. The decision in this mat- the public sector will begin at the beginning of
PLN 403.7 billion, only PLN 5 billion more than ter will be made by the new UKE president, who 2021 •
in the current year. The so-called Estonian Cor- will probably be Jacek Oko.
porate Tax (CIT) and other reliefs will bring
about a decrease in corporate tax revenues, while
the budget is to be supplied with PLN 1.5 billion Fuel and power mergers will begin.
from trade tax. The expenditure will be PLN In the autumn, Orlen is expected to start imple-
22 billion lower than in 2020 and will amount menting the conditions for its merger with Lotos,
to PLN 486 billion. The savings will include a which will be set by EurCom. Both companies
wage freeze and reduction of employment in the must significantly reduce their shares in do-
public sector, as well as keeping the indexation mestic production and sales of fuels in wholesale
of pensions at a minimum level. In turn, broadly and retail. By the end of the year, Orlen is also
understood public investments in infrastructure, planning to apply to the EurCom for permission
science and defence are to increase. to take over PGNiG. The government may also
start the process of transferring coal-fired pow-
er plants from state-controlled energy groups
The shape of frequency auction to the new National Energy Security Agency
(3.4-3.8 GHz) for the 5G network (NABE) and consolidating the latter. The scenar-
will be decided. io currently being considered by the government The implementation of PPKs in small
After MinDig changed the regulations and the auc- assumes first a Tauron-Enea merger, then their and medium companies will begin in
tion was cancelled by the president of the Office of absorption by PGE. Establishing a Polish Food
Electronic Communications (UKE), the proceed- Holding based on the Polish Sugar Company by
the autumn, in micro-companies it
ings have to start again. UKE can change some of the end of the year has also been planned. will begin at the beginning of 2021.
22 23Polityka Insight
>> Energy and Climate
The reconstruction
The EU will want to accelerate September 3
transition. Enea will present the results for the 1H
In September, the EurCom will present scenar- September 15
of the energy sector
ios for adopting more ambitious goals of reduc- PGE will present the results for the 1H
ing CO2 emissions from 40 to 50-55 per cent by
2030. Such measures are necessary for the EU to September
achieve climate neutrality by 2050. If Brussels EurCom will present scenarios of
will start in the autumn
recommends moving the target above 50 per cent, increasing the target of reducing CO2
CO2 prices will register a sharp increase, which emissions from 40 to 50-55 percent by
will negatively affect the coal-based energy sec- 2030
tor. By the end of the year, Brussels also wants to
By the end of September
revise EU directives on renewable energy sources
A plan to save Polish Mining Group
and energy efficiency. The review of both acts will
is to be ready
probably end with setting new ambitious targets,
The Polish government plans to rebuild which will accelerate the transition of the sector. October 22
Orlen will show the results for the 3Q
the energy sector and new company Coal mining sector could reach
a turning point.
October 29
Lotos will publish its results for the 3Q
strategies will emerge. The situation A plan to rescue Polska Grupa Górnicza (PGG)
and the entire mining sector is expected to be
November 5
Energa will publish its results for the 3Q
in Silesia may also reach a turning point. ready by the end of September. Mines are plung-
ing into crisis as demand for coal has dramati- November 9
cally declined due to the EU’s climate policy and PGE will publish its results for the 3Q
the coronavirus pandemic. To rebuild the sector,
November 18
coal production has to be adjusted to demand,
Tauron will show the results for the 3Q
which means closing the least profitable mines.
The MinStat presented such a plan in July, but November 19
coal miners rejected it and threatened to go on a PGNiG and JSW will present their
strike. It is not known yet what the government’s results for the 3Q
new proposals will include. The promise of high
November 26
Enea will show the results for the 3Q
By the end of the year
Orlen is to present a new strategy that
will take into account the company’s
The European Commission will
achievement of climate neutrality
Robert Tomaszewski
want to adopt more ambitious
Senior Energy Analyst goals of reducing CO2 emissions
from 40 to 50-55 per cent by 2030.
24 25Energy and Climate The reconstruction of the energy sector will start in the autumn
Climate Ministry to refine WHEN WILL THE
the energy policy and hydrogen BIGGEST POWER PLANTS
strategy. BE SHUT DOWN?*
By the end of the year, Michał Kurtyka’s minis-
try should complete an update of Poland’s Ener- The country’s largest power
gy Policy Until 2050 (its time horizon has been plant, Bełchatów, will be shut
extended by 10 years), as well as the Hydrogen
down by 2036.
Strategy, which is supposed to help decarbonise
the Polish economy. The ministry is also working
on a national transition plan, which is expected to Most of the units at the Turów
serve as a road map for local governments devel- power plant will be shut down by
oping Territorial Just Transition Plans (TPSTs). 2030, and the last unit (currently
The preparation of the latter will be crucial when under construction) will stay
obtaining money from the Just Transition Fund operational until 203
– Poland is to receive EUR 3 billion between 2021
and 2027.
The autumn will be the time of the escalation of tensions in Silesia, Two modern units commissioned
in 2019 at the Opole power plant
in September, the plan to rescue the entire mining sector. Government to unlock
will be closed in 2037 and 2038.
the development of offshore
severance pay for coal miners leaving their jobs PGE, Orlen and PGNiG to update and onshore windmills.
may not be enough to stop the escalation of ten- their strategies. According to MinClim‚s statements, a draft law In 2037, the new coal-fired unit
sions in Silesia. The energy consolidation plan will be crucial for on offshore wind farms should be sent to the at the Kozienice power plant
the changes included in the strategies of treas- Sejm in October. The new law creates a support will be shut down, and the block
ury companies. In the autumn, PGE is to pres- system for such farms, allowing their construc- in Jaworzno, which is currently
The Ministry of Assets will show ent a new strategy for the next decade; the doc- tion to commence. However, businesses are under construction.
plans to reform the energy sector. ument will take into account the path of moving concerned that the planned energy consolida-
Changes to the coal mining industry will be away from coal and focusing on the group’s core tion and the uncertain future of the coal mining
linked to the reconstruction of the energy sector, activity (generation of electricity). Orlen will al- industry may force the government to put its * According to the initial plan of the
the assumptions of which are still being devel- so release a new strategy by the end of the year adoption on the back burner. Changes are also consolidation of the energy sector, which
oped by the MinStat. No publication date of the – it is to take into account the company’s goal of set to occur in the so-called Distance Act, which Polityka Insight has gained access to.
document has been revealed, but it is clear that achieving climate neutrality by 2050. Its priori- determines where onshore wind farms can be
the ministry intends to separate old coal-fired ty actions include the development of hydrogen, built. Currently, the regulations allow wind tur-
power plants from old structures. They will be electrification of transport and opening of the bines to be placed at a distance of ten times of its
gradually transferred to a new entity: the Na- Baltic Sea to offshore wind farms. The updated overall height from residential buildings, which
tional Energy Security Agency. Additionally, a strategy was also to be presented by PGNiG, but in practice amounts to 1.5-2 km. The MinDev
timeline for their shutdown will be adopted. Lat- the announcement that Orlen would absorb the wants to shorten this distance to 0.5 km. •
er, the consolidation of the three energy groups natural gas monopolist may undermine this plan.
will be carried out by PGE. The coal-free and in-
tegrated energy sector is supposed to have better
access to funding.
26 27Polityka Insight
>> Pandemic
The COVID-19
Schools likely to become which will cut off some sources of the disease’s
new hotspots. spread. Infections outside large hotspots will
probably become more frequent (the so-called
It is difficult to predict how the COVID-19 pan- horizontal transmission). The number of districts
pandemic will
demic will develop, but this coming autumn is with a stricter sanitary regime will also increase.
likely to see a further increase in the number of
infections. The first contributing factor will be the
reopening of schools. Long-term models predict Healthcare system will be
under pressure.
not go away
that the number of cases can increase by a factor
of ten if the transmission between students is at The number of actual and suspected cases of
least half as high as among adults. The end of the the flu (and flu-like illnesses) during the flu sea-
summer season will also bring new outbreaks son of recent years (last and first quarter of the
at workplaces, but there will be fewer weddings, year) was about 3-4 million. This autumn, some
PROJECTED NUMBER OF CASES IN POLAND
COVID-19 will overlap with the flu number forecast confidence interval
season, which will pose a challenge for the
of detected cases of the forecast
2000
healthcare system. The government 1800
will try to avoid full lockdown. 1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
Piotr Żakowiecki 200
01.08 08.08 15.08 22.08 29.08 05.09 12.09 15.09
Senior Healthcare Analyst
Source: PI forecast.
28 29Pandemic
flu patients will be suspected of being infected and safety is confirmed, several hundred million
with SARS-CoV-2. This will increase the burden doses will be made available to EU countries
on facilities, including hospital admissions rooms. based on agreements negotiated by EurCom.
Another potential problem will be the possible Vaccines produced by China and Russia will al-
spread of coronavirus among hospitals and nurs- so appear on the market; they are already being
ing homes and the so-called corona domino effect ordered by the governments of developing coun-
associated with it. The inefficiency of the state tries. The results of additional studies on coro-
sanitary inspection service – mostly resulting navirus will also be published in the autumn. Sci-
from incomplete digitalisation and staffing short- entists still do not know for certain how the virus
ages – remains an unresolved problem and will spreads, how immunity is acquired and what risk
translate to the limited effectiveness of epidemi- factors are involved for different populations (in-
ological investigations and outbreak containment. cluding children, the elderly and workers that are
exposed to the disease).
MinHea will implement
its strategy. Government will want to avoid
First of all, MinHea wants to double the daily an economic lockdown.
number of tests performed from about 30,000 to Come autumn, the authorities will continue to
events
60,000 and make it possible for GPs to prescribe weigh the health and economic risks, trying to
them. The number of hospitals dedicated solely postpone the decision to introduce far-reach-
to COVID-19 patients will also decrease in the ing restrictions for as long as possible. The re-
autumn, while COVID-19 isolation rooms will cord-breaking budget deficit planned for this year
appear in all other hospitals. The enforcement of (over PLN 109.3 billion) suggests that the govern-
restrictions at the district level will continue and ment is reckoning with the fact that it will have JOIN THE DEBATE.
the services will be more rigorous in enforcing ex- to provide further support to the economy, but
isting restrictions and apply more severe financial probably on a smaller scale than during the first Debates, briefings, round tables and report presentations
penalties. The effectiveness of the restrictions and lockdown. The government will introduce a new
with business leaders, policy makers and renowned experts.
rules will largely depend on the public communi- anti-crisis shield for the tourism industry and
cations of MinHea and other government officials cultural institutions but this assistance may not We meet online in a professional manner and structure.
– the tone of their statements and the consistency be enough to protect companies from bankrupt-
of their actions will determine whether Poles will cy. It is possible that additional support for the
accept restrictions and abide by the rules. economy will come from previously unused PFR
(Polish Development Fund) resources (PLN 15-20
billion), as well as from the EU SURE mechanism
Vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 will (EUR 11 billion). •
become available. Interested in organising an online event?
It is expected that the vaccines developed by Contact us:
Western manufacturers – AstraZeneca and John-
son & Johnson in particular – will be approved
for use by regulators in Q4. If their effectiveness Katarzyna Szajewska
Senior Event & Communication Manager
k.szajewska@politykainsight.pl
(+48) 501 087 006
30Polityka Insight
>> Defence August 4, 2020. Ceremony of confimation of the agreement on enhanced defence cooperation between PL and the US.
The US will
increase its military
presence in Poland
A Polish general may soon be selected
for the highest military post in NATO. Ministry of Defence will spend the purchase of military equipment and will be
more on equipment. used by the end of 2021. The MinDef has not yet
Defence Ministry spending will increase On August 20th – in the amendment to the 2020
presented what it will exactly spend the funds on.
Certain possible options include the outstanding
after the budget amendment. budget – MinFin announced an increase in de-
fense spending by 3 billion zł. The decision comes
payments for earlier orders from the U.S (Patri-
ots, HIMARS, F-35’s), the purchase of another
as a surprise – as most forecasts predicted that HIMARS squadron, launching new domestic in-
defense spending, which constitutes 2.1 percent dustry projects (such as the modernization of the
of GDP, would fall due to the recession caused BWP-1), or buying additional domestic weaponry,
by the COVID-19 pandemic. The MinFin points which would also be an anti-crisis measure, by
out that the additional funds will be allocated to supporting the Polish industry.
Delays in armaments are the main
topics of discussion.
MinDef will be under pressure to explain the
The proposed command post of delays in upgrading Leopard tanks to the 2PL
standard and modifying the T-72 tanks. Addi-
the US Army Corps is to operate tionally, the planned modification of the 230
Marek Świerczyński
Head of Security in Europe from October 2020. T-72 may fail to reach completion. The Ministry
should also complete its analysis of the Narew
and International Affairs Desk short-range air defence system in the autumn.
The decision is urged by the British partner (MB-
32 33Defence The US will increase its military presence in Poland
The president will want changes to
PLANNED DEFENCE
security management.
EXPENDITURES
The act on national security management, which
President Andrzej Duda announced as part of
no less than:
The Ministry of Defence will
2.1%
the work on the new National Security Strate-
gy (SBN), is in the process of being agreed upon
be under pressure to explain with PMChan. It will likely be submitted to the
the delays in upgrading Leopard Sejm in September or October, but likely after
tanks to the 2PL standard. the government reshuffle. The law provides for
in 2020
setting up a government permanent security
committee, sorting out the hierarchy of strate-
2.2%
DA-UK) and the government in London, which although territorial defence forces command- gic documents and increasing the powers of the
will act as the leading country at the Septem- er Gen. Wiesław Kukuła also boasts a strong National Security Office. After the election vic-
ber defence fair (MSPO) and send a ministerial position. tory and the signing of an agreement with the
delegation. Raytheon, on the other hand, is ex- Americans, Duda increased his influence in the
pected to make an agreement with Polska Gru- government camp, but the final shape of the law
PGZ may be hurt by its results in the years
pa Zbrojeniowa (PGZ) over a two-year delay in depends on the balance of power in PiS. The gov-
and the reconstruction 2021-2023
implementing the offset agreement. In August, ernment’s response is also awaited by the postu-
of the government.
MinDef Mariusz Błaszczak discussed used sub- late in the SBN to increase defence spending to
marines with the Swedish Defence Minister, so President Andrzej Kensbok admitted in a press 2.5 per cent of GDP from 2024.
2.3%
the agreement will be one of the issues discussed interview that the group registered a loss of
this autumn. over 1 billion zł in 2019 (detailed PGZ financial
The command post of the 5th US
statements are awaiting publication by the Na-
Army Corps will come to Poland.
tional Court Register). He explained that the
The Chief of General Staff may be
loss resulted from the inclusion in this year’s Neither the exact date, nor the location is known in the years
promoted in NATO.
balance sheet of the reduced valuation of the yet, but according to the provisions of American
Gen. Rajmund Andrzejczak was nominated by shipbuilding assets of the MARS fund, omit- laws, the proposed command post of the US Army
2026-2029
Poland as a candidate for the successor to Stuart ted by the previous management board in the Corps is to operate in Europe from October 2020.
Peach (Great Britain) as the head of the NATO 2018 results. This, alongside with the planned After the decision of the Pentagon in May 2020,
2.5%
Military Committee, the highest military body reconstruction of the government, may lead it is known that this staff will be directed to Po-
of the Alliance. Andrzejczak competes with to another change in the management of PGZ land and that there will be about 200 officers in
Dutch General Roben Bauer. Earlier the Cana- during the autumn, especially if the changes in it. At the same time, it will be the first stage of the
dian Jonathan Vance withdrew. This is Poland’s government include the head of the Ministry implementation of the Polish-US agreement on
second approach to taking over the most impor- of State Assets Jacek Sasin and deputy min- enhanced defence cooperation, which was signed
tant military function in NATO; the Smolensk ister Maciej Małecki - who is responsible for on August 15. If necessary, the command post can
in 2030
catastrophe interrupted General Franciszek the armaments industry. If Andrzej Kensbok be expanded to a full corps staff with a three-star and next years
Gągor’s efforts back in 2010. If Andrzejczak is - who was appointed in March - departs PGZ in general at the head. The US Army Corps is capa-
accepted as committee head in September, he the autumn, he will become the shortest-serv- ble of commanding autonomous operations with
will leave the position in the General Staff. His ing president in the history of the group. 20,000 troops. •
most probable successor will be General Com-
mander of the armed forces Gen. Jarosław Mika,
34 35Polityka Insight
>> European Union
The EU will return
The last battle for the new budget. 7-11 September 2020
Following an agreement at the level of EU leaders EU-UK Negotiations
on the general principles and the pool of new EU (Round 8)
to the discussion
funds for 2021-2027, as well as on the Reconstruc- 24-25 September 2020
tion Fund, European capitals are still facing diffi- European Council
cult negotiations with EurParl on almost 40 regu-
lations that will determine how the EU budget will 28 September - 2 October 2020
be spent. MEPs will demand more influence on EU-UK Negotiations
on its future
how the money is spent, more clarity on how the (Round 9)
new EU debt will be financed and more money for
October 2020
education, housing and health. Although ultimate-
EU-Africa Summit
ly MEPs will not block the budget, the European
Council will have to make some concessions in or- 8-9 October 2020
der to conclude the negotiations as soon as possible. Justice and Home Affairs
Economic recovery after the pandemic
Council (migration)
Another clash between Warsaw and 23 October 2020
will remain a major challenge for the EU. Brussels on rule of law.
EU rules in this respect will be part of the negoti-
Environment Council
(EU Climate Law)
This will affect the existing items ations on the new EU budget. European Commis-
sioner for Justice Diedier Rayners assured that
23-26 November 2020
EurParl plenary session
on the EU agenda: the budget, climate
EurCom would seek to resume talks between the
European Council and the Parliament on a reg- 10-11 December 2020
ulation introducing a mechanism for suspend- European Council
and digital policy. ing funds for rule of law violations. He also an-
nounced that EurCom is preparing alternatives
14-17 December 2020
EurParl plenary session
to this solution, which will better protect EU
funds from misspending. Poland will not be able 31 December 2020
to block these regulations as decisions are taken End of post-Brexit
by a qualified majority. In the autumn, Warsaw transition period
will be weakened by a report assessing the state of
In the autumn, there will be hearings
dr Agnieszka Smoleńska in the Court of Justice of the EU with
Senior European Affairs Analyst regard to the independence of the
Polish judiciary.
36 37European Union The EU will come back to the discussion on its future
President of the European Commisision Ursula von der Leyen and President of the European Council Charles Michel,
achieving neutrality by 2050. EurParl wants to cial assistance to civil society. The conflict over
use the ongoing negotiations to put pressure on the EU’s asylum policy will escalate again in the
capitals and further increase the EU’s emission autumn: EurCom is expected to present a package
reduction commitments by 2030. In Septem- of new regulations, the publication of which has
ber, EurCom is expected to present scenarios been postponed due to budget negotiations.
on how this target could be increased to 55 per
cent (currently 40 per cent), in line with the
commitments of the Paris agreement. Finding Digital regulations will return to
a consensus on this issue, which traditionally the agenda.
creates divisions between capitals, is one of the By the end of the year, EurCom will present an
priorities of the German presidency. amendment to the regulation on Internet ser-
vices. The issue is highly controversial, as the
planned changes could lead to a radical revision
Debate on the future of Europe of the rules that have been in force for 20 years,
resumes. especially in relation to the liability of Internet
The pandemic has put work on the project platforms towards consumers. The Executive
of the biennial Conference on the Future of Vice President of the European Commission for
Europe, which was supposed to start in May A Europe Fit for the Digital Age and the Commis-
rule of law in EU member states, which is sched- as there will not even be time for the necessary 2020, on the back burner. A forum composed sioner for Competition will present proposals for
uled to be presented in September, as well as by ratifications. As a result, even the negotiation of of representatives of the institutions, states improving the ability of the EU’s competition pol-
the continued presence of the issue in the CJEU. a limited free trade agreement by October will be and society will discuss the necessary treaty icy to deal with unfair competition. •
Two hearings will be held on September 22 with an achievement. This means that cooperation and changes and institutional reforms of the Eu-
regard to the independence of the Polish judici- relations between EU operators and the UK will ropean Union. The epidemiological situation
ary. On October 15, the Advocate General of the be difficult starting January 2021. not only made it difficult to organise the con-
CJEU will give his opinion on the question of the ference, but also increased its stakes in view of
Supreme Administrative Court’s preliminary rul- the unprecedented decisions taken to finance
ing on Supreme Court judges. A new level of EU climate ambition. the EU’s economic recovery with debt. The is-
By the end of the year, work should be complet- sue is particularly important for EurParl.
ed on the so-called climate law, which incorpo-
Decisions on new London-Brussels rates into the European legal order the goal of
relations. EU will fight for a place on the
The transitional period stipulated in the agree- geopolitical map.
ment on the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from A number of meetings will be held in the autumn
the EU ends on December 31. Negotiations on to formulate the EU’s strategy against existing
the agreement – which will determine the shape threats (such as Turkey’s provocations in the
of future trade relations, regulatory cooperation Eastern Mediterranean) and new challenges (in-
and the movement of persons between the two The transitional period stipulated cluding Africa). EU policy on the ongoing protests
entities – will enter a crucial phase at the turn in the agreement on the United in Belarus will also remain high on the agenda. If
of September and October. It is unlikely to be the situation in this country does not change rad-
comprehensive and allow for a similar economic Kingdom’s withdrawal from the ically, the EU is unlikely to turn to more powerful
exchange between the EU and the UK as before, EU ends on December 31. instruments than individual sanctions and finan-
38 39You can also read
