Welcome to the 7th TowerXchange Meetup Africa - Wi-Fi network: towerxchange Wi-Fi password: tower123
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Welcome to the 7th
TowerXchange Meetup Africa
Wi-Fi network: towerxchange
Wi-Fi password: tower123
Gold sponsors: Silver sponsors: Bronze sponsors:
R
TowerXchange’s analysis of global and
SSA telecom infrastructure
Kieron Osmotherly, CEO, TowerXchange
Matthew Edwards, Head of Research, EMEA, TowerXchange
Join the conversation: #TXMeetupAfrica
Community:
www.moreconference.com/signin/register/c/towerxchange-meetup-africa-2019
morecode: 34BA6
Research: www.towerxchange.com
Networking club for towercos
Meetups, CXO dinners, must-read-journal, 3 million words of research, who’s whos
Meetup Asia 2019 3-4 December, Singapore
Meetup MENA 2020 28-29 January, Dubai
ESCO Roundtable 2020 March, Casablanca
Meetup Europe 2020 19-20 May, Barcelona
Meetup Americas 2020 23-24 June, Boca Raton
Enabling 5G 2020 September, Beijing
Meetup Africa 2020 13-14 October, JohannesburgTowerXchange is tracking 305 towercos that
now own 71% of the world’s 4.66mn towers
China Tower Corporation1 Vodafone TowerCo3 Reliance Jio Infratel3
61,700
1,954,000 175,000
Reliance Infratel
43,263 American Tower
170,297
Crown Castle 40,039
Bharti Infratel 40,388
Indus Towers
123,546
SBA Communications
29,723
edotco 29,325 31 other towercos with 5,000-20,000 towers
327,129
Deutsche Funkturm
29,200
Hutchinson towerco4
28,500
GTL Infrastructure
27,707
2345 other towercos withTowercos by revenue and EBITDA
12,000 21 further towercos with
revenue >US$100mn
10,000 Here is a list of 21 other towercos which
don’t disclose financial data, but which
TowerXchange forecast generated total annual
8,000 revenues in excess of US$100mn in FY18:
Revenue
Axicom, Australia
EBITDA CETIN, Czech Republic*
US$mns 6,000
Cornerstone, UK
DIF, Thailand
Digital Bridge, LatAm, USA & Europe
4,000 Eaton Towers, SSA
EI Towers, Italy*
Global Tower, Europe
2,000 Grupo TorreSur, Brazil
Guodong, China
Gyro Towers, South Africa
Hivory (formerly SFR Towerco), France
MBNL, UK
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[1] IHS Towers EBITDA estimated based on results disclosed by IHS Netherlands Holdco B.V., a subsidiary which operates 27% of their portfolio
*Total revenue for these companies includes
[2] Arqiva revenues and EBITDA drawn from their telecom business only, excluding their broadcast, satellite and media businesses Source: Company reports substantial broadcast tower or other revenuesTowerco penetration and business models in
different regions
Global 11%
15.5%
31.5% 29.3%
21.2%
15.4% Europe 46.6% 46.6% India
Europe 59.6% India 67.8%
13.7% 11%
9.6% 11% 21.8%
10.5%
3.9%
29% China 97.3% China 96.1%
2.7%
20%
56.2% S & SE Asia
19.2% S & SE Asia
N(Exc
& India)
E Asia 100%15.2%
64.8%
N & E Asia
(exc China)
100%
14.7% (exc China)
(Exc India) 66.1%
11.2% 6.5%
4.3%
15.6% 13.4%
29.5% 94.2% 5.2% 36.3%
7%
1.4% CALA 43.4%
27% USA &
99.5%
MENA
59.2%
13%
SSA Oceania
Canada
13.4% CALA 48.2%
36.1%
USA &
Canada
45.4%
MENA
0.04%
64%
SSA
4.6% 0.4%
Oceania
0.2%
59.5% 86.6%
66% 0.01% 36.2% 87%
Operator-led towerco Pureplay independent towerco Joint venture infraco MNO-captive sites Source: TowerXchangeo
g-
b-
into
alue?
< HowSource:
Core
tower
macro
farTowerXchange
business
Rooftops
Power-as-a-service
City Poles
IBS >500k sqft
Outdoor Small Cells & DAS
< How far to diversify to meet carrier needs? Utility Poles
BTS Hotels
to diversify without dilution of value?
FTTT
Metro Fibre
IBSEstimated tower counts for selected countries
in SSA
Burkina
Faso Angola
Malaawi 2,380 Cameroon 3,318
1,000 Madagascar 3,072
Botswana 2,310
Namibia 850
749
Uganda Senegal Cote DRC Mozambique Ghana Kenya Ethiopia Tanzania South Nigeria
3,554 3,925 d’Ivoire 4,293 4,400 6,605 7,591 8,000 8,278 Africa 30,540
4,271 30,183
Congo B
800
Gabon Chad Zambia Zimbabwe
1,000 Rwanda Niger 2,000 2,300
1,300 1,800 2,700
Source: TowerXchange
Gold sponsors: Silver sponsors: Bronze sponsors:
REaton Eaten
640 Eaton sites
< American Tower enters two to be acquired by
American Tower
new markets: Burkina Faso
670 Eaton sites
and Niger to be acquired by
American Tower
< Towerco consolidation in
3,767 American
Ghana, Uganda and Kenya Tower sites
including 1,420 2,035 sites
from Eaton 4,772 including
< Paid an EBITDA multiple of American
Tower
1,320 from
Eaton
sites
c. 13.2x, with a 1.5x tenancy
ratio 3,016 American
Towers
sites including
< Airtel Africa now 1,460 from Eaton
represents 35% of American 2,659
American
Tower EMEA’s revenue Tower
sites
*Please note towers are being added every week, so this count will change by closeIHS Towers continue to invest
< Following economic Tower ownership in Nigeria
downtrurn, new site rollout 550
had been scaled back but is IHS Towers
American Tower
picking up again. IHS 6,000
Pan African Towers
adding over 1,000 net sites 200
BCTek Engineering
75
16,390
in recent years 500
700
Communication Towers Nigeria
Hotspot Network
< Alternate providers: Pan 1,300
Other small Nigerian towercos
African and other private 4,772 Globacom
NATCOM
towercos
< IHS rolling out hybrid
systems on up to 12,000 sites Source: TowerXchangeIHS Towers outside Nigeria
< Decommissioning > new IHS Towers’ African tower portfolio
build in Cameroon and Cote d’Ivoire Cameroon
2,689 2,220
Zambia Nigeria
16,390
< Rwanda and Cote d’Ivoire Zambia Rwanda
1,709 855
see double digit site growth
Tower ownership in Cote d’Ivoire
< Major investment in solar
174 450
and hybrid systems 820 IHS acquired from MTN
IHS (under MLL contract for Orange)
continues in all countries
IHS built
< Global ambitions, including 1,000 Moov
Orange
in Middle East and the 1,174
To be transferred to 4th license holder
Philippines 695 Source: TowerXchangeNiche players perform valuable role
Single-country towercos Source: TowerXchange
Ghana Zimbabwe
Kenya
African Eighty Four
SEAL Towers
Towers Dynamics
South Africa
GyroTowers
Coast to coast Nigeria
Blue Sky Networks BCTek Engineering
Botswana Senegal Madagascar
Sentech Hostpot Networks
Pula Towers Al Karama Towerco of
Comco Communication Towers
Towers Madagascar
Eagle Towers Secured Towers
Sky Coverage
International Tower Corporation
Atlas Towers SA (SBA Communications)**
Namibia Angola
PowerCom ANTOSC
**Pending SBA acquisition of Atlas Tower SA
< Atlas Towers challenging Big 4 as SBA buys in
< South Africa and Nigeria have stock of alternate providers
< Local players performing valuable roles in single countries
< MNOs still want more sustainable alternate tower buildersAtlas Tower SA acquired
Growth of Atlas Tower’s South African tower portfolio Source: TowerXchange
900 900
800 748 800
691
700
518
Number of towers
600 455
500 375
310
400
236
300 207
155
200 120
70 92
100 20
5 8 17
15
15
15
15
16
16
16
16
17
17
17
17
18
*
18
18
19
19
18
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
1
2
3
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< Atlas Tower sustains market-leading growth
< SBA to exercise options to acquire 94% of Atlas Tower SA
< SBA has made a total investment of US$140mn
< Atlas SA to generate US$31mn, adjusted EBITDA of US$21mn in first FYT
< Tenancy ratio of 2.2
< Considering offering power-as-a-service to its tenantsHelios Towers’ fifth market
Projected tower build in South Africa Source: TowerXchange
Total towers, rooftops and small cells 40,000
37,000
35,000
35,000 33,500
32,200
31,050
30,183
30,000
25,000
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
< Partnering with Vulatel: towers, fibre and edge data centres
< Offering power-as-a-service in market shake-up
< Acquired of SA Towers, 100 sites and 500-strong pipeline
< Aim to own 1,000 sites by 2023Helios Towers considers IPO
2019 Revenue Breakdown by Country
< Tanzania and DRC: 83% of Helios 0%
Towers’ US$191mn revenue
10%
< EBIDTA margin climbed to 52%
6% South Africa
< Exploring lithium-ion for up to a
42% Tanzania
quarter of sites
< Apologies for their absence! IPO
DRC
could be next week Congo
41%
< Tipped to value company at Ghana
US$1.42-1.79bn
Source: TowerXchangeMTN’s plans to give everyone a modern,
connected life
MTN’s history of tower sales
< 5,000 rural sites across all their
African markets by end of 2020
< CHASE programme: Coverage,
Handsets, Affordability, Services
and Education
< Three categories covering rural,
ultra rural and ultra-ultra rural Sold to IHS
JV with American Tower
MTN retains towers
No opco present
Source: TowerXchangeMTN’s plans to give everyone a modern,
connected life
MTN’s rural RFP technical requirements
Description Rural Ultra Rural Ultra-ultra Rural
Villages situated 50-100km from urban areas. Very low population densities with widely distributed villages with little
Geography
Several villages in close proximity of planned site. or no inhabitants in between.
Population density per sqkm >1,000 =95% Best effort, vendor to propose
Dropped call rateVoda embracing towercos?
Vodacom’s African footprint and history of
< Outside Tanzania Vodacom has
tower sales
eschewed SLBs
< Vodafone TowerCo carve out
(selected sales?) in Europe
< Investing in over 3,000 rural sites
with Facebook over 5 years
< Working with AMN in DRC
< ESCO RFP likely in DRC where a
SLB may also be possible
Sold to Helios Towers with 24.5% stake
< If they win license in Ethiopia, acquired in Helios Towers Tanzania
MLL with Eaton Towers
likely to partner with towercos to Vodafone retains towers
Vodacom retains towers
rollout Safaricom retains towers
No opco presentEthiopia: Myanmar repeats itself, at 180% of scale?
Ethiopia – TowerXchange central projections for cell site and power, year end
2018 2019 2019 2019
2019 6,500 1,500
Telecom January: 85% July: September: New
2020 7,000 1,500 1,000 liberalisation 2G coverage Independent licence process
process begins achieved regulator expected to
formed begin
2021 7,250 1,750 3,000
2020 2020 2020
2022 7,300 2,000 4,500
Q1: Two new Q1: Ethio Q2: Network
international Telecom construction
3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 licences expected predicted to be begins
to be issued 49% privatised
Ethio Tel ESCOs Towercos
Source: TowerXchange
< Market liberalisation has reached escape velocity
< 49% of Ethio Telecom to be sold
< Vodacom/Safaricom, MTN Group, Orange, Etisalat linked with two licences
< IHS, Helios, ATC all with known interests; huge BTS opportunity
< US$250mn telecom investment predicted for 2020Airtel Africa’s footprint and tower transactions
Airtel’s tower ownership and transactions
across its 14 African markets
Sold to Eaton Towers
Sold to American Tower
Sold to Helios Towers
Sold to IHS
Retains towers, ESCO contract signed with Energy Vision
Currently retains towers
No opco present
Sold to Eaton Towers; opco subsequently acquired by Orange
Sold to Eaton, opco subsequently merged with Tigo
Source: TowerXchangeAirtel Africa’s post-IPO 5G ambition
Airtel African markets total base
< Asset-light, works with all four station locations
towercos
< Retains towers in Chad, Gabon, 5,221
Malawi, Madagascar, Tanzania and 11,729
Seychelles
< EOR for 1,400 towers in Tanzania
< Airtel Africa has 4G live in all
15,551
markets, 100% in Uganda, and in
Niamey, Niger
Nigeria
< Plans to have 5G live in three years, East Africa (Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Tanzania,
is the African telecom tower industry Malawi, Zambia)
ready? Rest of Africa (Niger, Gabon, Chad, Congo Brazzaville,
DRC, Madagascar, Seychelles)Orange pioneers the ESCO model
< ESCO contracts up and ESCO map Country with confirmed live
ESCO(s)
ESCO RFP live or rumoured to
running in Sierra-Leone
be imminent
and Guinea-Conakry, DRC, Confirmed live ESCO(s) with
further RFPs live or rumored
Niger, Burkina and Ivory No ESCO activity yet detected
Coast
< ESCO contract closing in
Central African Republic
< ESCO RFPs live in Mali, Source: TowerXchange
Liberia and Cameroon Burkina Faso: Aktivco
Côte d'Ivoire: Aktivco
with all of Orange’s Guinea Conakry: Chad: Aktivco
IPT with DRC: GreenWish+Sagemcom
African markets (except further RFP Gabon: Energy Vision
rumored
Egypt) due to have signed Niger: Activco
Nigeria: IHS ‘Big Five’: IPT, Makasa
ESCOs by year end Sun, M-P Infrastructure, Biswal
Lebanon: IPT
< Attention turning to rural Sudan: Ascot
Zimbabwe: Distributed Power Africa
programmesNew build projections for 2020
TowerXchange new site build forecast for SSA 2020, broken down by country
Ethiopia, 1,500 South Africa, 867 MTN rural build outside
named countries, 1,000
Kenya, 700
Senegal, 350
Vodacom rural build with
Ghana, 333 Facebook, 500
Nigeria, 1,000
Madagascar, 150
Burkina Faso, 100
Uganda, 100 Other SSA countries, 392
Mozambique, 100
Tanzania, 80
Cote d’Ivoire, 50 Source: TowerXchangeTowerXchange new site build forecast for SSA
2020-22
Count shows forecast new site build net
< Cyclically slower year in 2019 but of decommissioning
12,000
predicted to pick up next year
< Big growth contribution rural builds 10,000
and Ethiopia’s liberalisation 8,000
< Decommissioning in many markets
6,000
mask higher gross volumes
4,000
< Energy investment decisively shifting
towards hybrid solutions, lithium-ion 2,000
climbing toward 20% share, and even
2020 2021 2022
smaller towercos investing in tower
Ethiopia Kenya
management software Nigeria Ghana
South Africa Other SSA countriesMNOs vs towercos vs ESCOs
How is responsibility for power forecast to evolve across Sub-Saharan Africa’s 157,542 cell sites?
Year end 2018 Year end 2019 Year end 2020
5 7 10
ESCOs
56 39 40 49 Towercos
53 41 MNOs
< Asset-light business models prevail
< Outsourcing to towercos and ESCOs continues
< Significant BTS, IBS and rural opportunities exist in many markets
< Reduced prospect of game-changing large sale and leasebacks
< Towercos ultimately own most of the SSA sites they want to own
< Room for improvement in operational delivery Source: TowerXchangeThank you!
Kieron Osmotherly Matthew Edwards
Founder and CEO Head of Research, EMEA
TowerXchange TowerXchange
E: kosmotherly@towerxchange.com E: matthew.edwards@towerxchange.com
M: +44 7771 148001 M: +44 (0) 789 994 7585
W. www.towerxchange.com W: www.towerxchange.com
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