Cleantech markets in Germany: Energiewende and more - Thomas Grigoleit Director Energy, Environment and Ressources April 2015 - GTAI
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©Chris Schmidt - istockphoto
Cleantech markets in Germany: Energiewende and more…
Thomas Grigoleit
Director Energy, Environment and Ressources
April 2015
www.gtai.com |
Germany Trade & Invest
Germany Trade & Invest (GTAI) is the official foreign trade and inward
investment promotion agency of the Federal Republic of Germany.
www.gtai.com |
Agenda
Cleantech Markets in Germany: Energiewende and more…
a) From Generation to Integration
b) Energy Efficiency
c) Environmental Technologies
www.gtai.com |
Renewables Energy Revolution
Total capacity of renewables
2000)
(End 2005)
2012)
2010)
~~
~~ 30,000 installations
1.300.000
221,000
750,000 installations
installations
installations
Wind energy
PV
Biomass
The circle diameter is proportional
to the electrical capacity
Sources: 50HertzT, TenneT, Amprion, TransnetBW, internal data
22.05.2015 | www.gtai.com www.gtai.com |
The Energy Concept (2010)
Main Objectives
Climate protection measures 2020 2050
GHG cuts vs. 1990 -40% -80%
Renewable share of… 2020 (2025) 2050
Total energy consumption 18% 60%
Electricity consumption 35% (40-45%) 80%
Heat generation 14% 60%
Energy efficiency measures
Increase in energy productiveness 2.1% p.a.
Reduction of energy consumption -50% (2050 vs. 2008)
Reduction of electricity consumption -25% (2050 vs. 2008)
Renovation rate 2% p.a.
Reduction of energy consumption for -10% (2020 vs. 2005)
transportation -40% (2050 vs. 2005)
www.gtai.com |
Germany‘s nuclear power phase-out
In 2012:
99 TWh electricty produced which accounts for
Due to the nuclear disaster in Fukushima in 16% of nuclear power!
2011, closure of nuclear power plants was
brought forward from 2036 to 2022 2021 Hamburg
8 out of 17 nuclear power plants were
already shut down in 2011 Berlin
2022
2011: 17.6% nuclear power of total energy
2021
consumption (2010: 22.6%)1
Cologne
Development of installed nuclear power plants
capacity in MW2
Frankfurt
25000
21.547 2015
20000
22.6 % of 2019
15000 2022
electricity
Stuttgart
10000 generation
(2010) 2017 2022
5000 4.285
0 2021 Munich
0
2010 2011 2012 2015 2019 2021 2022 2023
Active nuclear reactor with
date of scheduled closure
1) Quelle: BMWi „Die Energiewende in Deutschland“, Februar 2012
Nuclear reactor already closed
2) Quelle: DAtF, 2012
www.gtai.com |
www.gtai.com
Energiewende in Germany
Future electricity mix in Germany will be based on Wind and PV
www.gtai.com |
The German Wind Energy Market
Germany's wind energy market in numbers
Top 10 New Installed Capacity 20141) Total installed wind power 20142) 39,165 MW
Total installed wind turbines
onshore 20142) 24,867
Rest of World 13% China 45.2% Newly installed wind power
onshore 20142) 4,750 MW
Turkey 1,6%
Market growth 2014 58%
France 2% Repowering share in new
Sweden 2% onshore installation 20142) 1,148 MW
UK 3.4% Total connected wind power
offshore 20142) 1,049 MW
Canada 3.6%
Newly installed offshore capacity
20142) 1,218 MW
India 4.5%
Electricity generation 20133) 53.4 bn kWh
Brazil 4.8%
Employees in Germany 20124) 117,900
USA 9.4% Share of German electricity
demand 20145) 10%
Germany 10.2%
Sources: 1) GWEC 2015 2) Deutsche WindGuard 2014, 2015 3) DEWI/Deutsche Wind Guard /Arbeitsgruppe Energiebilanz, 2014; 4) Federal Ministry for the
Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety 2013 5) BDEW 2015
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8
Current Status of Offshore Wind Developments
Development of Offshore Wind in Germany
OWTs with Grid Connection - Annual Additions (left axis)
OWTs with Grid Connection - Cumulative Capacity (right axis)
800 1200
700
1000
600
800
500
400 600
300
400
200
200
100
0 0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: WindGuard 2015
22.05.2015 | www.gtai.com
www.gtai.com |
9
22 May 2015
The German PV Market 2014
Germany is the largest PV market in Europe with the strongest private
customer segment
Estimated PV Installations 2014 [MWp1] German PV Market 20142
• Newly installed PV power 1.9 GWp
Germany
Rest of 1.900 Rest of • Number of newly installed PV systems 75,000
World
Europe
7000
6000
• Total installed PV power 38 GWp
USA • Total number of PV systems installed 1.5 Million
Total
6000
~ 42 GWp
China
• PV electricity production 35,2 TWh
12000
• Share of final electricity consumption 6.1 %
Japan
9000
• FIT commitment for 52 GWp
Sources:
1) Preliminary estimations by PV-Magazine, Solarserver, IHS, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
2) Preliminary numbers from BDEW 2015, Federal Network Agency 2015, BMU 2015; Fraunhofer ISE 2015
www.gtai.com |From Grid-Parity to Battery-Parity
With fruther increasing electricity prices and decreasing PV system costs,
the business case for storage is becoming better and better
0,55
Prognosis 4,90
4,70
0,50
4,50
4,30
0,45 4,10
3,90
0,40 3,70
3,50
0,35 3,30
EUR/kWh
3,10
0,30 2,90
2,70
0,25 2,50
2,30
2,10
0,20
1,90
1,70
0,15 1,50
1,30
0,10 1,10
0,90
0,05 0,70
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Electricity price for households [2.5-5 MWh/a] Electricity costs for PV* Electricity costs for PV + Battery**
* Model calculation for rooftop systems, based on 802 kWh/kWp (Frankfurt/Main), 100% financing, 6% interest rate, 20 year term, 2% p.a. O&M costs
** based on 5,000 cycles , 87% efficiency
Sources: System Prices: BSW 2015; Model Calculation: Deutsche Bank 2010; Electricity Prices 2007-2013: Eurostat 2013.
www.gtai.com |Grid Parity = Competitiveness
Competitiveness of solar = new business opportunities!
Wattage
PV Energy
„Own-Consumption“
Energy from grid
of PV Energy
Energy Demand
Time of day
0h 3h 6h 9h 12h 15h 18h 21h 24h
Notes: 1) Depending on size /type of system; Min. to max . tariff in 2013 of new EEG 2012 2) Depending on electricity retail price of respective utility company.
7 october, 2014 www.gtai.com
www.gtai.com ||Market for storage and smart grid technologies
Punctual overcapacities in electricity production through fluctuating RES
Increasing volatility of electricity prices!
MW
MW €/MWh
€/MWh
60000
60000
50000
50000
40000
40000
30000
30000
20000
20000
10000
10000
00
00:00
00:00 02:00
02:00 04:00
04:00 06:00
06:00 08:00
08:00 10:00
10:00 12:00
12:00 14:00
14:00 16:00
16:00 18:00
18:00 20:00
20:00 22:00
22:00
Solar
Solar Wind
Wind Non-Fluctuating
Non-Fluctuating
Electricity generation in Germany June 16th 2013 @ ~34 GWp installed PV capacity
*Source: EEX 2013 (http://www.transparency.eex.com)
www.gtai.com |Example for critical grid situations: Eclipse 2015
Eclipse on March 20th had no effect on German‘s grid stability due to
excellent forecasting & compensation
Electricity production in Germany, week 12th 2015:* Eclipse on March
20th 2015
GW
PV Wind Non-fluctuating Net imports
*Source: ISE 2015 (http://www.energy-charts.de)
22.05.2015 | www.gtai.com
www.gtai.com |Ensuring grid stability in the future
Simulation of German grid in 2022: Daily & seasonal fluctuations increase
February (week 6th) April (week 14th)
GW
GW
August (week 33th) November (week 47th)
GW
GW
PV Wind Biomass Fossiles Electriciy demand
22.05.2015 | www.gtai.com
*Source: Agora Energiewende 2015 www.gtai.com |Large-scale batteries balancing the grid
Installed battery capacity in Germany for primary control provision
30
Aachen, Eon Energy Research Centre at
RWTH Aachen University (Li-ion, high-
28 temperature, lead-acid)
Dresden, Younicos & DREWAG (Li-ion) 5
26
24 Pellworm, EON & Schleswig-Holstein Netz
AG, Hybrid (Li-ion, Redox-flow) 2 2
22 Braderup, Bosch, Hybrid (Li-ion, Redox- 0,76 0.76
flow)
20 2.235
Feldheim, Energiequelle GmbH, Li-Ion
18
Schwerin, Younicos & Wemag, Li-Ion
16
14 Berlin, Younicos & Vattenfall, LiFePo 10 10
12
Berlin, Younicos & Vattenfall, Hybrid (Li-
Ion, NAS)
10
Völklingen-Fenne, Evonik, Li-Ion
8
5 5
6
4
2 2 2
2
1 1 1
1 1 1 1
0
2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: IEK-STE Database, Energiespeicher Jülich www.gtai.com |
16Hybrid Power Plant – Continuous Energy Supply
Enertrag Hybrid Power Plant – Sustainable and clean electricity & heat
Hydrogen
Grid Production via
Unused
Electrolysis
Electricity
(Produced at
Electricity Night)
Hydrogen
2 Cogeneration
Plants
Hydrogen
Storage
Electricity Variable Mixture Hydrogen
Mixing Valve
Hydrogen
Heat Biogas (from Corn)
Filling
District Station
Heating
Biogas Storage
Source: http://www.bi-bigben.de/elements/hybridkraftwerk1.jpg
22.05.2015 | www.gtai.com
www.gtai.com |Power to Gas pilot plant and H2 Filling Stations
www.gtai.com |
18Expansion of the electricity grid in Germany
An enormous expansion of the high voltage grid system is required by
2024.
Grid Expansion Distance in Km.
DC-New Construction 2,200
AC-New Construction 1,300
DC/AC- Grid 5,200
Reinforcement
Expansion and Reinforcement
Transmission grid
Grid expansion and Reinforcement of 8,700km is
required by 2024
Baseline scenario with overhead lines requires:
22 bn €*
Additionally the connection of the offshore-grid is
estimated to
10-12 bn €
*Costs estimates per NEP-Draft 2014 49GW/12GW wind onshore/offshore
www.gtai.com |
Source: TSO 2014 19Agenda
Cleantech Markets in Germany: Energiewende and more…
a) From Generation to Integration
b) Energy Efficiency
c) Environmental Technologies
www.gtai.com |Primary Energy Efficiency in Germany
Germany aims to decouple economic growth and energy consumption –
much has been achieved but the potential is still vast.
Average Increase
Base year = 1990 change 1990 to 2012
in % in percentage
p.a. points
160
150 + 1.85 + 50
140
+ 1.44 + 37
130
120
110
100
90 - 0.4 - 9
80
70
- 1.82 - 33
60
50
GDP PEC Energy Productivity Energy Intensity
Source: Authors‘ own graph; data source: AGEB (Working Group on Energy Balances), 2013
22.05.2015 | www.gtai.com
www.gtai.com |The Building Energy Efficiency Opportunity
Germany has Europe‘s largest building stock and construction market.
Refurbishment segment dominates – smart retrofit solutions are needed!
Volume of residential construction in
Germany, in EUR billions Market Drivers for
140
Energy Efficiency:
120
100
1. Energy prices
80
60 2. Regulation &
40
Incentives
20
0
3. Innovation
Residential new Residential refurbishment
Source: DIW 2013 , Heinze Marktforschung , BBSR *Prognosis GTAI © novonty – fotolia.com
www.gtai.com |
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Germany Trade & InvestVast Industrial Energy Efficiency Potential
93 billion EUR investment = 199 TWh economically attractive savings*
Economically attractive energy savings potential in German industry in TWh
with existing technologies.
15
Savings potential:
42 TWhel/a = 4.9 B € energy costs/year
8.0 TWhel 157 TWhth/a = 6.3 B € energy costs/year
3.3 TWhel
7.5 TWhth
12.6 TWhel
10
Payback in years
0.8 TWhel
3.9 TWhel 59.8 TWhth 79.7 TWhth
4.4 TWhel
2.2 6.5 TWhel 10.0 TWhth
Heat
TWhel
5
0.4 TWhel
0.2 TWhel
Needed: New business models, financial innovation, tech solutions
0
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000
Invest in million EUR
Motion Energy Waste
26000 17500 14000
(Pumps,
10500 7900
Data 7200 6700
Com- 3700
Process
2000 500
Electri- 300
Process Process Hydraulics city Water
Lighting Manage- HVAC pressed
Heat Automation E-Motors, Cold Treat-
ment Air Supply
etc.) ment
Source: Siemens
22.05.2015 2013, * Economically attractive= IRR> 8%
| www.gtai.com
www.gtai.com |
23Agenda
Cleantech Markets in Germany: Energiewende and more…
a) From Generation to Integration
b) Energy Efficiency
c) Environmental Technologies
www.gtai.com |The German Market for Waste Management Recycling
Germany is by far the world’s largest market for waste management
recycling with a turnover of EUR 17 billion (17% of the global market
share)
REDUCE
German Recycling Market 2014
• Industry Turnover EUR 17 billion
REUSE
• Germany has 64% of the world market share
for material separation devices
• Number of employees 60,000
RECYCLE
• Expected increase at 5.2% until 2025
Source: GreenTech Atlas, 2014; BMUB
www.gtai.com |
www.gtai.com
25Future Population Dynamics: Impacts .
Changes in population development from 2005 to 2025 as a %
“The Water-Wende” - In some
regions, the decline in
population will lead to an
infrastructural challenge”
Source: Profile of the German Water Sector, 2011 – Edited by ATT, BDEW, DBVW, DVGW, DWA, VKU – Graphics provided by BDEW (2013)
www.gtai.com |Sustainable Water Technologies
R&D Clusters
No. Institute
1 Ecologic
2 Engler-Bunte-Institute
3 Cologne University of Applied Sciences, "STEPS"
4 Fachhochschule Deggendorf - University of Applied Sciences
5 University of Applied Sciences Osnabrück
6 Research Center Karlsruhe, Program ENVIROMENT
7 Fraunhofer-Community, Fraunhofer-Institute for Applied Ecologics
8 Fraunhofer-Community, Fraunhofer-Institute for Molecular-Biology
9 GKSS Research Center Geesthacht GmbH
10 Institute for Automation and Communication e.V. Magdeburg
11 Institute for Hygiene and Enviroment
12 Institute for Regional Developement and Planing (IRS)
13 University Stuttgart
14 Institute for social-ecological Research
15 University Karlsruhe
16 IZES-Institute for Futural-Energy-Systems
17 Johannes-Gutenberg-University Mainz
18, 19 Leibniz University Hannover
20 Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg
21 Eco Institut e.V. Freiburg
22 PIK - Potsdamer Institute for Climate Consequences Research
23 RWTH Aachen
24, 25 Technical University Berlin
26, 27 Technical University Dresden
28 Technical University Hamburg-Harburg
A Selection of Networks of
29 Technical University Ilmenau
30 Technical University Kaiserslautern Competence
31 Technical University Munich
32 University Bielefeld
33, 34 University Bremen
35 University Duisburg-Essen, Biofilm Center
36 University Freiburg
37 University Kassel
38 University Leipzig
39, 41 University Lüneburg
40 University Siegen
42 Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Enviroment, Energy GmbH
43 ZEW - Center for European Economic Research GmbH
www.gtai.com |
www.gtai.comEnergiewende – Longterm scenario
The E-Energy Vision for a Smart Grid
Source: E-Energy
www.e-energy.de/en
Source: E-Energy
www.gtai.com |Don‘t hesitate to contact us!
Energy, Environment and Resources Division:
Europe
Berlin - Headquarters
Mr. Thomas Grigoleit Mr. Heiko Staubitz Mr. Tobias Rothacher Mr. Henning Ellermann
Director Senior Manager Senior Manager Manager
Energy, Environment and Energy Storage and Smart Photovoltaics and Storage Energy Efficiency
Resources Grid T. +49 30 200 099-225 T. +49 30 200 099-257
T. +49 30 200 099-224 T. +49 30 200 099-226 tobias.rothacher@gtai.com henning.ellermann@gtai.com
thomas.grigoleit@gtai.com heiko.staubitz@gtai.com
Ms. Esther Frey Mr. Max Hildebrandt Mrs. Flérida Regueira Cortizo Mr. David J.Warne
Manager Manager Senior Manager Senior Manager
Wind Photovoltaics and Storage Environmental Technologies Geo Energy & Resources
T. +49 30 200 099-253 T. +49 30 200 099-223 T. +49 30 200 099-230 T. +49 30 200 099-601
esther.frey@gtai.com max.hildebrandt@gtai.com flerida.regueira@gtai.com david.warne@gtai.com
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Director Director
New York, USA San Francisco, USA
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