FORRES 2020: Analysis of renewable energy's evolution up to 20201
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Abstract of First Results
FORRES 2020:
1
Analysis of renewable energy’s evolution up to 2020
Mario Ragwitz, Joachim Schleich, Fraunhofer ISI
Claus Huber, Gustav Resch, Thomas Faber, EEG
Monique Voogt, ECOFYS
Walter Ruijgrok, KEMA
Peter Bodo, REC
Karlsruhe (Germany)
January 2004
Study supported by:
1 Project supported under Tender No. TREN/D2/10-2002. Project ends in December 2004.2
FORRES 2020:
Analysis of renewable energy’s evolution up to 2020
Foreword
This summary provides a digest of the interim of these 25 countries as well as for the two
results of the project FORRES 2020: “Analy- future Accession States Bulgaria and Roma-
sis of renewable energy’s evolution up to nia.
2020”. The objectives of this project are to
produce an independent analysis and as- The FORRES 2020 study was initiated and
sessment of the implementation of renewable financed by the European Commission, Di-
energy sources in the Member States of the rectorate-General for Energy and Transport.
European Union and the Candidate Coun- An international consortium of research and
tries since the publication of the White Paper consultancy partners is conducting the study.
on renewable energy sources in 1997 and to The core project team consists of Mario
propose a perspective for the period up to Ragwitz, Joachim Schleich (Fraunhofer-ISI,
2020. The results of the project will: Germany), Claus Huber, Gustav Resch,
(1) provide input for monitoring the progress Thomas Faber (EEG, Vienna University of
of the targets set in the White Paper, the Technology, Austria), Monique Voogt
Directive on the promotion of electricity (ECOFYS, Netherlands), Walter Ruijgrok
from renewable energy sources, and the (KEMA, Netherlands) and Peter Bodo (Re-
Directive on biofuels; and gional Environmental Centre, Hungary).
(2) provide insights into the possible future
implementation of renewable energy Support from the European Commission, DG
sources under different policy develop- TREN is gratefully acknowledged. The
ments up to 2020. authors would like to thank their colleagues
for their support in various parts of the study.
A main report on the project is available, The responsibility for the contents of the
which provides an overview of the progress study and the views expressed remains with
made on the European market for renewable the core project team.
energy sources for the current EU-15 Mem-
ber States and the 10 Accession States (indi- For further information, questions and com-
cated as EU-10+). A separate volume con- ments, please contact the project manager at
tains more detailed country reports for each the following address:
Dr. Mario Ragwitz
Fraunhofer-ISI
Breslauer Str. 48
D-76139 Karlsruhe
Germany
Tel: + 49 721 6809-157
E-mail: Mario.Ragwitz@isi.fhg.de3
FORRES 2020:
Analysis of renewable energy’s evolution up to 2020
Summary
An important aspect of the EU policy to States. Secondly, it provides a frame-
increase the share of renewable energy work to analyse the impacts of these
sources (RES) is the monitoring and national policies and measures and the
evaluation of the progress made towards extent to which each of the EU-25 states
the 2010 targets and the determination of is realising the targeted deployment of
realistic targets for the period up to 2020. renewable energy. Based on different
The monitoring process concentrates on assumptions with regard to the imple-
two main issues. Firstly, it monitors the mented policies, scenarios for the future
national adoption of EU legislation and its implementation of renewables until 2020
translation into national action plans and can be calculated.
policy instruments in each of the 25 EU
Analysing current policies
The European renewable energy market the amount and level of supporting poli-
and its set of supporting measures is cies. For biofuels changes in the policy
very dynamic. Countries are continuously environment can be observed as a result
monitoring their sets of policies and of the Biofuels Directive. For the heat
measures, which often results in the fine- sector the recently formulated Directive
tuning of instruments and sometimes the on the Energy Performance of Buildings
introduction of a completely new set of represents a starting point for policy set-
instruments. For electricity, the formula- ting on the European level. More signifi-
tion of the Renewable Electricity Direc- cant policy changes are expected in the
tive has clearly had a strong influence on near future.
Calculation methodology
The calculations and projections con- tricity sector in all EU-27 countries. The
ducted in this study are based on two model calculates the impact of various
different methods: renewable energy promotion strategies,
1. Forecasts of RES penetration based taking into account boundary conditions
on econometric analyses. on the markets. Technologies are speci-
2. Forecasts of RES penetration with fied by means of dynamic cost-resource
the model Green-X. curves. The econometric analysis uses
correlations between historically ob-
The Green-X model allows for a com-
served policy implementations and cor-
parative, quantitative analysis of interac-
responding RES penetration. The
tions between electricity from renewable
econometric analysis is used to set a
sources (RES-E), conventional electricity
benchmark for the results of the Green-X
and CHP generation, demand-side ac-
model.
tivities and GHG-reduction in the elec-4 FORRES 2020: Analysis of renewable energy’s evolution up to 2020 Scenarios for developments until 2020 Model calculations and analyses are els the future evolution based on the cur- based on two different scenarios; each rently available best practice strategies of with a different mix of promotion individual EU Member States. Strategies schemes and assumptions. The first that have proven to be most effective in scenario is the business-as-usual sce- the past for implementing a maximum nario (BAU). This scenario models the share of RES have been assumed for all future development based on present countries. Furthermore, the policy sce- policies under currently existing barriers nario assumes a stable planning horizon and restrictions, e.g. administrative and and that currently existing barriers will be regulative barriers. Future policies, which overcome. Both scenarios include the have already been decided on, but have effects of technology learning and not yet been implemented, will also be economies of scale, which have a higher considered. The second scenario is the impact in the policy scenario. policy scenario (PS). This scenario mod- Projections until 2020 Electricity The major outcomes of the projections that the cost decline of the technology for the electricity sector for the EU-25 will not keep track with the annual de- until 2020 are shown in Table 1. For cal- cline of feed-in tariffs currently imple- culating the overall share, the BAU sce- mented and used in the model. Both so- nario is related to the baseline demand lar thermal electricity as well as wave & scenario, whereas the policy scenario is tide energy will experience significant set in relation to the efficiency demand growth in the next two decades. Electric- scenario. As can be observed, wind en- ity generation from biomass, biogas and ergy shows the strongest increase under biowaste is expected to reach more than both scenario assumptions. The major three times the current penetration under difference between the two scenarios BAU assumptions and about eight times with respect to wind energy is that, in the the present value in the policy scenario. policy scenario, offshore wind generation Geothermal energy grows only moder- is about twice as high as in the BAU sce- ately in both scenarios because, at the nario. Only limited growth is projected for current stage of the project, only conven- hydropower due to the limited remaining tional geothermal electricity generation potentials especially for large hydro- potentials are considered, e.g. not hot- power. Photovoltaic electricity is pro- dry-rock technologies. jected to grow moderately due to the fact
5
FORRES 2020:
Analysis of renewable energy’s evolution up to 2020
Table 1: Projected RES electricity generation in 2020 in EU-25 under BAU
and policy scenario
2001 2020
Electricity [TWh] BAU Policy
Wind energy 34 335 438
Hydro power 326 342 349
large-scale 288 298 302
small-scale 38 44 47
Photovoltaic 0.2 0.8 4.0
Solar thermal 0.0 4.2 15.2
Wave & tide 0.0 6.9 36.1
Biomass, biogas, biowaste 37 128 302
Geothermal 6.3 7.7 8.2
TOTAL RES-Electricity 403 824 1153
TOTAL Demand * 2960 4000 3580
Share of Demand 13.6% 20.6% 32.2%
* EU energy outlook 2003
The projected share of renewable energy tials for the different renewables. For
sources in the electricity sector (RES-E) some countries, like Denmark and Ire-
for the EU-15 Member States and for the land, significant differences between
Candidate Countries for the year 2020 is BAU and policy scenario indicate that
shown in Figure 1. Projected RES-E pro- major improvements of the existing poli-
duction figures under BAU and policy cies are feasible. For other countries,
scenario assumptions are related to two such as Austria, the control of electricity
different demand forecasts from the EU demand deserves high relevance in or-
energy outlook 2003 (baseline and effi- der to increase the share of RES-E.
ciency). Large differences between indi- Generally Figure 1 indicates the need for
vidual countries exist with regard to the additional support in most EU-25 coun-
achievable generation due to differences tries in order to utilise higher shares of
in current penetration and future poten- the existing RES-E potentials.6
FORRES 2020:
Analysis of renewable energy’s evolution up to 2020
Figure 1: Share of RES electricity production in EU-15, EU-10+ and EU-25 in 2020
40
BAU - Demand Baseline BAU - Demand Efficiency POLICY - Demand Baseline POLICY - Demand Efficiency
35
RES Electricity share [%]
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
EU-15 EU-10+ EU-25
Heat
Far fewer policy measures have been value for both the BAU and the policy
implemented in the heat sector than in scenario. A fairly large increase can be
the electricity sector in the EU-25 coun- observed in the policy scenario for geo-
tries. This applies especially to bio- thermal heat generation as well as for
energy, where significantly more effective active solar thermal applications. This is
policy instruments would be feasible than mainly the result of assumed strong
are currently implemented in any of the regulations for geothermal heat pumps,
countries. Since the policy scenario pre- similar to the Swedish case, and of as-
sented here is based on the currently sumed effective investment support in-
available best practice policies in one of struments for solar thermal heat as are
the EU countries, this implies that currently being applied in Austria and
stronger growth could be achieved by Germany. However, despite the success
applying new and more effective policy of these individual examples, it is clear
measures. Furthermore, it has to be em- that strong policies, clear target setting,
phasised that no efficiency demand sce- and/or a commonly adopted approach is
nario from the EU energy outlook (2003) strongly lacking on the European renew-
was available, therefore the baseline able heat market.
demand had to be used as a reference7
FORRES 2020:
Analysis of renewable energy’s evolution up to 2020
Table 2: Projected RES heat generation in 2020 in EU-25 under BAU and
policy scenario
2001 2020
Heat [Mtoe] BAU Policy ***
Biomass 47 53 75
Geothermal 1.0 5 18
Solar Thermal 0.5 3 7
TOTAL RES-Heat 49 60 100
TOTAL Demand * ** 419 478 478
Share of Demand 11.7% 12.6% 20.8%
* EU energy outlook 2003
** No efficiency scenario available
*** More effective policies feasible
Biofuels
The projected biofuel consumption in tions for liquid biofuels. The high share of
2020 for the EU-25 is shown in Table 3 biofuels in the transport sector is due to
for both scenarios. Since a number of EU the assumption that a rapid take-off of
countries have since implemented tax biofuel production and consumption can
exemptions for liquid biofuels, a major also be achieved in the EU-10+ countries
share is already projected in the BAU and that the production of biofuels from
scenario. In the policy scenario, the in- solid biomass (lignocellulose) is techni-
crease in biofuel production is signifi- cally and economically feasible after
cantly stronger because all countries are 2010.
assumed to implement such tax exemp-
Table 3: Projected biofuel production in 2020 in EU-25 under BAU and
policy scenario
2001 2020
Transport [Mtoe] BAU Policy
TOTAL Biofuels 1 19 52
TOTAL Demand * 279 351 323
Share of Demand 0.41% 5.5% 16.1%
* EU energy outlook 2003
2 We would like to mention that the future project work also includes a more in-depth analysis of the competing use of
bioenergy in the electricity, heat and transport sectors.8
FORRES 2020:
Analysis of renewable energy’s evolution up to 2020
Total primary energy
The projected RES primary energy pro- projected to more than triple compared to
duction for the EU-25 in 2020 is shown in 2001 levels, whereas it less than doubles
Table 4 for both scenarios. Primary en- under the BAU scenario. The major dif-
ergy production was calculated using the ference between the BAU and policy
EUROSTAT convention and not the sub- scenario corresponds to a more signifi-
stitution principle. In the policy scenario, cant contribution of bioenergy in the
primary energy production from RES is sectors of electricity, heat and transport. 2
Table 4: Projected RES primary energy production in EU-25 in 2020 under
BAU and policy scenario
2001 2020
Total primary energy [Mtoe] BAU Policy
TOTAL Renewables 101 179 316
TOTAL Demand * 1680 1900 1700
Share of Demand 6.0% 9.4% 18.6%
according to EUROSTAT convention
* EU energy outlook 2003
The projected share of primary energy both scenarios. The reason is, in partial,
production from RES in total demand for the large difference between biomass
the individual EU-15 Member States and electricity generation in the BAU and the
for the Candidate Countries for the year policy scenario, which has a strong im-
2020 is shown in Figure 2 and Figure 3, pact on the primary energy balance.
respectively. Projected RES production However, this also suggests that, for
figures under BAU and policy scenario many countries, there is especially a
assumptions are again related to two need for more effective policies in the
different demand forecasts from the EU heat and transport sectors. Figure 2 and
energy outlook 2003 (baseline and effi- Figure 3 display those countries, which
ciency). For most countries, differences could contribute most significantly in
in primary energy use from total RES closing the gap between the two scenar-
between the policy and the BAU scenario ios by implementing stronger policies for
are substantially larger than the differ- the promotion of RES and by controlling
ences in the electricity sector between electricity demand.9
FORRES 2020:
Analysis of renewable energy’s evolution up to 2020
Figure 2: Share of RES primary energy in EU-15 Member States in 2020
60
BAU - Demand Baseline BAU - Demand Efficiency POLICY - Demand Baseline POLICY - Demand Efficiency
RES primary energy share [%]
50
40
30
20
10
0
AT BE DK FI FR DE GR IE IT LU NL PT ES SE UK EU15
Figure 3: Share of RES primary energy in Candidate Countries in 2020
80
BAU - Demand Baseline BAU - Demand Efficiency POLICY - Demand Baseline POLICY - Demand Efficiency
70
RES primary energy share [%]
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
CY CZ EE HU LA LT MT PL SK SI EU10+ BG RO10
FORRES 2020:
Analysis of renewable energy’s evolution up to 2020
Main conclusions and implications
Under the policy scenario, a RES share large scale. Under the BAU scenario, the
of 32 % in the electricity sector and of RES market share reaches 21 % in the
19 % in terms of primary energy (ac- electricity sector and 9 % in terms of pri-
cording to EUROSTAT convention) is mary energy in 2020. This indicates that
feasible in 2020, but only if additional significant additional efforts are needed
policies are implemented quickly in most to reach a RES primary energy share of
Member States. For the heat sector, a about 20 % in 2020.
share of about 21 % is projected under
The growth of primary energy production
this scenario. However, since the policy
by RES in the BAU scenario until 2020
scenario is based on a collection of the
leads to reductions in CO2 emissions of
currently available best practice policies,
about 260 Mt compared to 2001. Addi-
a higher share could be achieved as-
tional emission reductions of 225 Mt can
suming even more effective policies in
be achieved under the policy scenario by
the future, especially for heat applica-
2020, which corresponds to more than
tions. For the biofuel sector, considerable
half of the EU-25 reduction commitment
growth is projected, provided that tax
under the Kyoto protocol.
exemptions for biofuels are applied on aYou can also read
