Voice Over Wi-Fi An Economic View - Ray Mota, CEO and Principal Analyst, ACG Research Peter Curtin, Universal Wi-Fi Solution Manager, Cisco May ...
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Voice Over Wi-Fi
An Economic View
Ray Mota, CEO and Principal Analyst, ACG Research
Peter Curtin, Universal Wi-Fi Solution Manager, Cisco
May 24, 2016
C97-734235-00 © 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 1
OPEX – BIGGEST ISSUES TO RESOLVE
48 Service Providers - Cost and Profit
75%
65% OpEx/Rev
15% Profit/Rev
0%
2009 2015
RAY MOTA Transforma)on is required www.acgcc.com
SP ARPU – CAGR FLAT - NEGATIVE
Service Provider - ARPU
$45
Fixed Data
Fixed Voice
Mobile Voice
Mobile Data
$0 APPU
2009 2015
RAY MOTA Focus on Average Profit Per User www.acgcc.com
INDUSTRY PERCEPTION
“2016 is the year VoWiFi moves from a nice to
have to a requirement”
RAY MOTA Subscribers are ready www.acgcc.com
WHAT IS IT?
You don’t lose minutes
Seamless user experience (messaging & phone)
Same number – Same mobile service
Works across LTE and WiFi
RAY MOTA What is VoWiFi www.acgcc.com
PURE ECONOMICS – IT’S REAL & NOW
Growth in Smartphone Solves spectrum indoor coverage problem
Most already in WiFi Range Solves spending on spectrum capacity cycl
Many WiFi Calling Devices VoWiFi Operators
iPhone 5S, iPhone 5C, iPhone6, iPhone 6 UK – EE
Plus, Samsung Galaxy S5, Samsung ! Vodafone will soon and O2 and Three
Galaxy S6, Samsung Galaxy S6 Edge, offer service through apps
Microso] Lumia 640 etc.
US – T-Mobile and Sprint
There are also apps that emulate this
service especially for Android (Sprint, O2 Due to offer VoLTE and VoWiFi this year
and Three do that)
VoWiFi trials all over the world
RAY MOTA Many get poor indoor coverage – it’s not about control – it’s about quality www.acgcc.com
Potential Impact of VoWi-Fi on Spectrum
Spending
EsDmated Impact of VoWiFi
Total Total Average Annual Average Annual
Total Amount paid Spectrum Spectrum saved Financial
AucDon Amount Reserve as a mulDple Capacity Price per MHz With VoWi-Fi Benefit*
Country
Year paid by Price of Reserve AucDoned PenetraDon (Secondary market
(1% Year 1 & 15% Year 5) resale or delayed
bidders Price** (MHz) spend)
USA 2015 $ 41 Billion $ 11 Billion 3.7x @ 273% 65 MHz $635 Million 14 MHz $445 Million
UK 2013 $ 3.7 Billion $ 2.0 Billion 1.8x @ 81% 250 MHz $15 Million 9 MHz $7 Million
Germany 2015 $ 5.7 Billion $ 1.7 Billion 3.4x @ 235% 270 MHz $21 Million 18 MHz $19 Million
Korea 2013 $ 2.2 Billion $ 1.3 Billion 1.7x @ 69% 90 MHz $25 Million 4 MHz $5 Million
India 2015 $17 Billion $ 10 Billion 1.7x @ 69% 401 MHz $42 Million 11 MHz $23 Million
5% of the consump0on are done outdoors $100 Billion Spent on RAN
95% of the consump0on are done indoors $1 Billion Spent on WiFi & Small Cell
**Increased traffic on wireless networks increases the demand for the spectrum
* A projected 5 year average that assumes prices stay flat from last auc)on at a 20 year amor)za)on rate
GOOGLE Fi PROJECT
SUPPORTS
What is Project Fi is able to seamlessly transi)on your calls from Wi-Fi to
cell networks without ever dropping your conversa)on.
it?
How Google does it?
Plan starts with the Fi Basics for $20 per month. This includes:
• Unlimited domes)c talk and text
• Unlimited interna)onal texts
• Low-cost interna)onal calls
• Wi-Fi tethering
• Coverage in 120+ countries
Then it's $10 per GB for data. $10 for 1GB, $20 for 2GB, $30 for 3GB
and so on. That's it. With no annual contract required.
Pay for what you use.
RAY MOTA Google genng into market – Wait and see will increase CHURN !!! www.acgcc.com
Same Core for VoWiFi & VoLTE
SGW
Cellular
IMS
iFi ePDG PGW
Untrusted W
SmartPhone
Trusted WiFi
TWAG Internet
RAY MOTA When macro network is ready – add VoLTE support www.acgcc.com
DAY IN THE LIFE OF MOBILE CUSTOMER
Home Work Hotspot Outdoor
MSO MSO Mgd Srv MSO Mgd Srv MSO Guest
Residential Customer
Work Customer Hotel Customer Community
MSO Guest MSO Guest Operator 1
MSO Guest
Community
Community Community VoWiFi Customer
Operator 1 Operator 1 Operator 2
Operator 1
VoWiFi Customer VoWiFi Customer
Small
Customer
VoWiFi Customer Cell
Operator 2 Operator 2
Small
Cell
Customer Small
Cell
Customer
RAY MOTA QOE will be a cri)cal success factor www.acgcc.comSAME ASSETS – DRIVING MORE REVENUE
Operator 2
VoWiFi/Offload
Small Cells Managed Services
Operator 1 Consumer
EXPAND FOOTPRINT – LEVERAGE MANAGED SERVICES ASSET
MSO REVENUE
OPERATOR PROFITS
RAY MOTA Win win scenario www.acgcc.comMobile Network Evolution: Voice to Internet
1981 1992 2001 2011 2020
Outdoor Coverage Indoor Coverage
© 2016 Cisco and/or
C97-734235-00 © 2015its affiliates.
Cisco and/orAll rights reserved.
its affiliates. Ciscoreserved.
All rights Public 12Wi-Fi Network Evolution: Internet to IoT
802.11 802.11b 802.11g/a 802.11n 802.11ac 802.11ac
2Mbps 11Mbps 54Mbps 600Mbps 3.6Gbps Wave 2
7Gbps
1997 1999 2002 2007 2012 2015
Indoor Coverage Outdoor Coverage
© 2016 Cisco and/or
C97-734235-00 © 2015its affiliates.
Cisco and/orAll rights reserved.
its affiliates. Ciscoreserved.
All rights Public 1395% of Data Consumption Occurs Indoors
Home 52%* Work 33%* Hotspot 10%* On the Go 5%*
While Current Spend is Outdoors
2015 Indoor Wi-Fi/Small Cell spend $1B
2015 Outdoor RAN spend $100B**
Source: *Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020; * *ACG Research
© 2016 Cisco and/or
C97-734235-00 © 2015its affiliates.
Cisco and/orAll rights reserved.
its affiliates. Ciscoreserved.
All rights Public 14Impact of Wi-Fi
Data Usage Growth
(Billions) per Year
Minutes of Use
100
10,000
Exabytes per Month
VoWi-Fi 90
80
8,000
70
60
6,000
50
4,000 40
30
2,000 VoLTE 20
10
0 0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
VoWiFi (15.7% , 52.9%)* Mobile Data Wi-Fi Data
*refers to 2015 and 2020 % minutes of use
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
© 2016 Cisco and/or
C97-734235-00 © 2015its affiliates.
Cisco and/orAll rights reserved.
its affiliates. Ciscoreserved.
All rights Public 15Wi-Fi Suppliers and Consumers
Wi-Fi Suppliers Wi-Fi Consumers
Large Cable Operators Cellular Operators
Small Tier 2-5 Operators MVNOs
Who? Boutique Operators (Boingo)
• Want to monetize their existing • Need additional voice and data
Wi-Fi Assets coverage
• Want to differentiate their • Need simple Wi-Fi Authentication
Why? offerings (may also want to add • Concerned about Wi-Fi QoE
voice)
• Upgrade Wi-Fi network to meet • Build Wi-Fi capacity
SLAs • Acquire or Partner with existing Wi-
How? • Expand Coverage Footprint Fi Operator
• Add new Wi-Fi Services (location) • Complement with Small Cell
C97-734235-00 © 2015
© 2016 Cisco and/or Cisco and/or
its affiliates. its affiliates.
All rights reserved.All rights
Ciscoreserved.
Public 16Usage and QoE Vary by Location
Low
Untrusted Trusted QoE
Trusted Small Cell Low
Macro
(Build Wi-Fi) (Partner Wi-Fi)
• Benefits • Benefits Mobile Core
• Benefits • Benefits • Benefits
• Lowest Cost • Moderate • ConsumpDon • Moderate • Widely
• Speed of cost based cost deployment deployed
deployment • QoE Control • Speed of cost 3G/LTE • Supports all
• MulD Carrier • Transparent Trusted
deployment • Cellular SLAs phones
• Challenges user Wi-Fi
• QoE SLA • Support all • Cellular SLA’s
Untrusted
• QoE /Lack of onboarding • Transparent phone types • Challenges
Radio • Managed user • Solves indoor • High Cost to
Wi-Fi
Resource Services onboarding coverage solve indoor
Management Revenue • Challenges • Challenges coverage
• User • Challenges Build or
• No Managed Small
• Capacity-Need • Capacity-May
Partner RAN
onboarding • Need VoWi-FiAcquire Services spectrum Cell need new
• Need VoWi-Fi phone Revenue • MulD carrier Spectrum
phone • Need VoWi-Fi
phone
Home 52% Work 33% Hotspot 10% On the Go 5%
2019: 95% of Data ConsumpDon(3G/LTE/Wi-Fi) is Indoors (Source: Cisco VNI)
© 2016 Cisco and/or
C97-734235-00 © 2015its affiliates.
Cisco and/orAll rights reserved.
its affiliates. Ciscoreserved.
All rights Public 17It’s All About Economics and QoE
Macro
Voice $.011/min Home 52%*
Data $1.64/GB
Small Cell
Voice $.01/min
Data $1.16
Work 33%*
Managed Wi-Fi
Voice $.0034/min
Data $0.23/GB
Home Wi-Fi
Voice $.001/min Hotspot 10%*
Data $0.11/GB
On the Go 5%*
Source: *Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020; * *ACG Research
C97-734235-00 © 2015
© 2016 Cisco and/or Cisco and/or
its affiliates. its affiliates.
All rights reserved.All rights
Ciscoreserved.
Public 18A Day in the Life of Your Customer
No QoENo QoE QoE Mixed
QoEQoE QoE
Other Wi-Fi
Wi-Fi Small Macro Network
Wi-Fi Home/ Home
Office/Hotspot Cell Indoors
Hotspot
Present Access Other Wi-Fi Wi-Fi Wi-Fi Office/
Home/Hotspot Home Hotspot Small Cell Macro Total
Scenario
(No Wi-Fi QoE) Voice 4% 0% 1% 1% 94% 100%
Data N/A 0% 1% 1% 98% 100%
Desired Access Other Wi-Fi Wi-Fi Wi-Fi Office/
Scenario Home/Hotspot Home Hotspot Small Cell Macro Total
(Wi-Fi QoE) Voice 4% 10% 15% 5% 66% 100%
Data N/A 16% 15% 5% 64% 100%
Voice increases from 6% to 34% and Data increases from 2% to 36% with
Cisco Solution C97-734235-00 © 2015
© 2016 Cisco and/or Cisco and/or
its affiliates. its affiliates.
All rights reserved.All rights
Ciscoreserved.
Public 19Business Outcome Impact
APPU
Financials improve using Cisco’s Mobility Access Solution
© 2016 Cisco and/or
C97-734235-00 © 2015its affiliates.
Cisco and/orAll rights reserved.
its affiliates. Ciscoreserved.
All rights Public 20What Problems Are We Solving?
Home Consumer Service & Operations Mobile
• Improve Wi-Fi Onboard Millions of Seamless Mobility
Quality Subs and Coverage
• Reduce Opex on High Availability Intelligent Network
support calls
Common Core Elements Offload
Evolved VoWi-Fi &
Wi-Fi SON
Packet Core Small Cells
QoE Scale Performance
© 2011 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public21Why Cisco?
Scale & Performance Quality of Experience
1. Supports Millions of Session & Tunnel 1. Voice & Data Readiness: E2E Jitter &
scale to address Wi-Fi subscriber growth Latency analysis to Optimize & Prioritize.
2. Provides High Availability at Product & 2. Bearer creation, deletion visibility at
end to end Solution level SaMOG, ePDG & SDN API at WLC
RF AAA
Insights
Wi-Fi SON Framework Receiver
IMS APN
Managed Wi-Fi Access Wi-Fi Core Small Cell Cellular Core
ASR 5500
Enterprise APN
RG AP WLC ASR 5500
(SaMOG) SC ePDG/
Hetnet
EPC
Wi-Fi Access Internet APN
(Home, Office,
Indoor / Outdoor Hotspots) C97-734235-00 © 2015
© 2016 Cisco and/or Cisco and/or
its affiliates. its affiliates.
All rights reserved.All rights
Ciscoreserved.
Public 22Trusted Wi-Fi Use Case: Wi-Fi SLA
“Sprint last year inked a Wi-Fi
offload deal with Boingo that
calls for Sprint's Android and
iOS smartphone customers to
automatically switch to Boingo
hotspots in roughly three dozen
major U.S. airports. Peterson
said that Boingo had to increase
the density of its Wi-Fi networks
in order to ensure that Sprint
customers making Wi-Fi calls
while strolling through an airport
would remain connected.”
Fierce Wireless
Feb 2016 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public
C97-734235-00 © 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 23What is Needed to Meet QoE?
Before
After
© 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public
C97-734235-00 © 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 24VoWi-Fi Key Assessment Parameters
Requirement Parameter Min. Max. NOTES
Call capacity VoWi-Fi bandwidth 5% 25% Use AP Planner to
(concurrent) (BW) estimate # calls
Call quality Packet loss N/A 1% Connection stats
Cell-edge RSSI -74dBm -62dBm* Passive site-survey**
Network capacity Channel BW 40MHz* 80MHz Set in RRM/DCA
[5GHz]
Channel utilization N/A 50% > VoWi-FI BW CU stats
(CU) [5GHz]
Interference 90% N/A CleanAir stats
(AirQuality) [5GHz]
* For High-density (HD) designs (30+ active users/AP)
** Virtual (3D) or physical
© 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public
C97-734235-00 © 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 25VoWi-Fi 5GHz Benefits
• High voice quality needs low packet-loss & jitter
• Both tend to be low IF the interference is Wi-Fi-based (Carrier-Sense-
Multiple-Access or CSMA) since voice takes precedence over data
• Non-Wi-Fi interference (e.g. 2.4GHz BlueTooth) does NOT use CSMA
and thus causes higher loss & jitter
• AirQuality (AQ) is measure of non-Wi-Fi interference and in 5GHz
channels AQ can be high (90+%)
• 2.4GHz channel reuse is HIGH (N=3)
• High co-channel-interference (CCI) -> unwanted CU
• 5GHz channel reuse can be LOW (N=6,12,24,…)
• Low CCI " Low unwanted CU " more voice & data capacity
• Lower channel BW (40Mhz) significantly reduces CCI
© 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public
C97-734235-00 © 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 26Other Considerations for VoWi-Fi
• Network QoS features
• Packet Inspection and prioritization
• WMM support on device and APs
• Optimized Roaming
• RSSI Issues
• VoLTE Handoffs
• APs
• Capacity under load
• Radio Flexibility and control
• Small Cell Deployment
• AP/Small Cell Integration
• Switch Capacity (Wave 2 capable?)
© 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public
C97-734235-00 © 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 27Conclusions
• Get voice and data off macro network inside buildings
• Voice and data offload are key to maintain profitability
• Trusted Wi-Fi is necessary to ensure QoE for Hotspots
• Wi-Fi SON is necessary to ensure QoE in the Home
• Acquisition or Partnering with Wi-Fi Operators may be
the quickest way to broaden coverage and reduce cost
© 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public
C97-734235-00 © 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 28Thank You
© 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public
C97-734235-00 © 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 29You can also read
