Update on COVID-19 Projections - Science Advisory and Modelling Consensus Tables June 10, 2021 - Ontario COVID-19 Science ...
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Update on COVID-19 Projections
Science Advisory and Modelling Consensus Tables
June 10, 2021
Key Findings
• Cases, percent positivity, and hospitalizations have all dropped sharply
thanks to the commitment of Ontarians.
• Cases should continue to decline for the next 10 days. As vaccination
continues, it will be important to monitor carefully for new variants and
continue assessing for signs of breakthrough and serious infection.
• The Delta variant is more transmissible and may be more dangerous. It will
likely be the dominant form of the virus this summer. It is critical to control
the spread of this variant.
• To avoid a fourth wave, we need to continue to ensure first and second
doses in high-risk communities, continue tailoring vaccine clinics to
community needs, and ensure strong testing and case and contact tracing.
2Weekly new cases per 100,000 residents
100
150
200
300
250
50
0
Data source: CCM
Porcupine
Thunder Bay
Peel
Hamilton
Brant
Durham
Data note: Data for the most recent day have
been censored to account for reporting delays
Waterloo
Toronto
Niagara
York
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph
Middlesex-London
Windsor-Essex
Ottawa
Haliburton KPR
May 24
Halton
Simcoe Muskoka
Lambton
Huron Perth
Haldimand-Norfolk
Average weekly cases on:
Peterborough
June 6
Southwestern
Renfrew
Chatham-Kent
Eastern
Grey Bruce
Sudbury
North Bay Parry Sound
KFLA
Hastings & PEC
Northwestern
Algoma
Cases have decreased sharply in almost all Public Health Units
Timiskaming
Leeds Grenville Lanark
3% positivity has declined sharply since the last briefing
Dec 26 Jan 18 Apr 3 Apr 17
Province-wide lockdown First dose Province-wide Enhanced public health
% positivity of daily testing episodes
14-days for N. Ontario vaccination emergency brake measures and enforcement
28-days for S. Ontario In LTC in
18 prioritized PHUs
16
14
(7-day avg.)
12
10
Porcupine, 9.5%
8
Peel, 6.3%
6 Hamilton, 6.1%
Waterloo, 5.5%
4 Toronto, 4.0%
Ontario, 3.2%
2
0
May 22
Aug 15
Aug 29
Nov 21
Mar 13
Mar 27
Apr 10
Apr 24
Oct 10
Oct 24
Feb 27
Dec 19
Feb 13
Sep 12
Sep 26
Jan 16
Jan 30
May 8
Aug 1
Nov 7
Dec 5
Jun 5
Jan 2
Specimen Date 4
Data source:Ontario Laboratory Information System (OLIS), data up to June 4Testing has declined. Continued strong monitoring will be
critical for control of the pandemic.
700
Testing episodes per 100,000
600
500
(7-day avg.)
Porcupine, 442
400
300
200
Ontario, 172
100 Timiskaming, 107
0
May 22
Aug 15
Aug 29
Nov 21
Mar 13
Mar 27
Apr 10
Apr 24
Oct 10
Oct 24
Feb 13
Feb 27
Dec 19
Sep 12
Sep 26
Jan 16
Jan 30
May 8
Aug 1
Nov 7
Dec 5
Jun 5
Jan 2
Specimen Date
5
Data source:Ontario Laboratory Information System (OLIS), data up to June 4COVID-19 hospitalizations and ICU occupancy have dropped
2500
Patients in Inpatient Beds with COVID19
2000 Patients in ICU with COVID-Related Critical
Illness
1500
1000
500
0
Data Sources: MOH COVID Inpatient Census and Critical Care Information System
6Continuing control of the pandemic will be key to reducing
the access-to-care deficit
150%
100%
Most urgent surgeries
Change vs Previous Year† (%)
HOLIDAYS
50%
0%
Semi urgent surgeries
Least urgent…
-50%
-100%
Apr 2020 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov. Dec Jan. 2021 Feb Mar Apr May
Data Source: Wait Times Information System 7
2020 2021Ontarians’ commitment to public health measures means we
are doing much better since the last briefing
5,000
Figure shows
4,500
predictions based on 4
4,000
models.
3,500
• Partial reopening June 3,000
Daily Cases
14 2,500 Range from
• Vaccinating 140k- 2,000
last briefing
180k/day 1,500
• Delta VOC considered 1,000
• Different levels of 500
disease spread after -
Step 1 opening
03/05
04/23
01/01
01/08
01/15
01/22
01/29
02/05
02/12
02/19
02/26
03/12
03/19
03/26
04/02
04/09
04/16
04/30
05/07
05/14
05/21
05/28
06/04
06/11
06/18
06/25
07/02
07/09
07/16
07/23
07/30
08/06
08/13
ON - Daily ON - 7-Day Average High, 142k/day High, 180k/day
Medium, 142k/day Medium, 180k/day Low, 142k/day Low, 180k/day
Predictions informed by modeling from Fields Institute, McMasterU, PHO, YorkU
Data (Observed Cases): covid-19.ontario.ca 8If we continue to control COVID-19, we can drop below 200 COVID-
19 patients in ICUs by mid-July and begin to resume normal hospital
operations
ICU Occupancy
1,000
Range from
900
last briefing
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
-
03/18
05/06
12/31
01/07
01/14
01/21
01/28
02/04
02/11
02/18
02/25
03/04
03/11
03/25
04/01
04/08
04/15
04/22
04/29
05/13
05/20
05/27
06/03
06/10
06/17
06/24
07/01
07/08
07/15
ON - Daily ON - 7-Day Average Predicted High, 142k/day High, 180k/day
Medium, 142k/day Medium, 180k/day Low, 142k/day Low, 180k/day
Predictions: COVID-19 ModCollab. 9
Data (Observed ICU Occupancy): CCSOThe 2nd vaccine dose is more than 2x as effective against the Delta variant – it is key to get 2nd doses in arms Delta variant (B.1.617.2) • About 50% more transmissible than Alpha (B.1.1.7) • Will likely be the dominant variant in the early summer • Risk of hospitalization may be increased • 1st dose of vaccine less effective against symptomatic disease but it may protect against severe disease Source: SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under Source: Estimated from Bernal et al, BMJ 2021; Bernal et al, medRxiv 2021 10 investigation in England Technical briefing 14
Continuing a strategy based on age and community risk will help
control the spread and impact of the Delta variant
Protect all regions with 1st doses, avoid Protect regions at high-risk of Delta with
‘pockets’ with low coverage increased 1st and 2nd dose coverage
• Minimize risk of introduction and • Control surges in Delta-high-risk areas
propagation of Delta-variant
• Minimize risk of spillover into other areas
• Continue core public health functions of
• Continue core public health functions of
case and contact tracing, testing
case and contact tracing, testing
Benefits of continuing a focus on high-risk communities
• Compared to a pure age-based allocation, continuing a high-risk community strategy
reduces the overall case count by 39% (both with 2nd dose eligibility at 6 weeks)
• Much of the reduction in cases are in lower-risk communities; benefitting all communities
Technical Note: Modelling based on 2nd dose coverage of 45% in high-risk regions and 25% in
all other regions by the end of June, 70% 1st dose coverage for all regions
11Vaccination coverage continues to increase
Provincial progress
(Age 18 or older) 72.8% 27.2%
2,500,000
2,000,000
Population remaining
1,500,000
Has made an appointment
for first dose*
1,000,000
Number of individuals
500,000 with at least one dose
-
80+ 70 to 79 60 to 69 50 to 59 40 to 49 30 to 39 18 to 29 12 to 17
* Note that this is just Pending Appointments. Anyone who has made an appointment and received a vaccine will be counted under “Individuals with at least one dose”. Data for Appointments reflect 21 PHUs that are captured
through the provincial booking system. Appointments made through other systems (e.g., local PHU booking systems, pharmacies, primary care) are not included.
^ Age is based on year of birth.
Data Sources
MOF 2020 Population Projections
COVAX analytical file, extracted 8:00pm June 6 2021, CPAD, MOH
COVAX Skedulo, extracted 6:00pm June 6 2021
12The high-risk community strategy has helped
Figure excludes long-term care vaccination – at least 1 dose as of June 7, 2021
Source: ICES 13Key Findings
• Cases, percent positivity, and hospitalizations have all dropped sharply
thanks to the commitment of Ontarians.
• Cases should continue to decline for the next 10 days. As vaccination
continues, it will be important to monitor carefully for new variants and
continue assessing for signs of breakthrough and serious infection.
• The Delta variant is more transmissible and may be more dangerous. It will
likely be the dominant form of the virus this summer. It is critical to control
the spread of this variant.
• To avoid a fourth wave, we need to continue to ensure first and second
doses in high-risk communities, continue tailoring vaccine clinics to
community needs, and ensure strong testing and case and contact tracing.
14Contributors
• COVID Vaccination Strategy Modeling Group: Sharmistha Mishra, Jesse Knight, Huiting Ma, Kevin Brown,
Amir Ghasemi, Kamil Malikov, Michael Paterson, Hannah Chung, Andrew Calzavera, Kinwah Fung, Kristy Yiu,
Sarah Buchan, Sarah Wilson, Leigh Hobbs, Linwei Wang, Stefan Baral, Rafal Kustra, Gary Moloney, Nathan
Stall, Jeff Kwong, Peter Jüni & Beate Sander
• COVID-19 Modeling Collaborative: Kali Barrett, Stephen Mac, David Naimark, Aysegul Erman, Yasin Khan,
Raphael Ximenes, Sharmistha Mishra, Beate Sander
• Fields Institute: Taha Jaffar, Kumar Murty
• ICES: Jeff Kwong, Hannah Chung, Kinwah Fung, Michael Paterson, Susan Bronskill, Laura Rosella, Astrid
Guttmann, Charles Victor, Michael Schull, and Marian Vermeulen
• McMasterU: Irena Papst, Michael Li, Ben Bolker, Jonathan Dushoff, David Earn
• YorkU: Jianhong Wu, Yanyu Xiao, Zack McCarthy
• MOHLTC: Michael Hillmer, Kamil Malikov, Qing Huang, Jagadish Rangrej, Nam Bains, Jennifer Bridge
• OH: Erik Hellsten, Stephen Petersen, Anna Lambrinos, Chris Lau, Access to Care Team
• PHO: Kevin Brown
• Science Advisory Table: Peter Juni, Antonina Maltsev, Bruno da Costa
15Content provided by Modelling Consensus and Scientific
Advisory Table members and secretariat
Beate Sander,* Peter Juni, Brian Schwartz,* Kumar Murty,* Upton Allen, Vanessa Allen, Kali Barrett,
Nicholas Bodmer, Isaac Bogoch, Kevin Brown, Sarah Buchan, Yoojin Choi, Troy Day, Laura Desveaux,
David Earn, Gerald Evans, David Fisman, Jennifer Gibson, Anna Greenberg, Anne Hayes,* Michael
Hillmer, Jessica Hopkins, Jeff Kwong, Fiona Kouyoumdjian, Audrey Laporte, John Lavis, Gerald
Lebovic, Brian Lewis, Linda Mah, Kamil Malikov, Antonina Maltsev, Doug Manuel, Roisin McElroy,
Allison McGeer, David McKeown, John McLaughlin, Sharmistha Mishra, Justin Morgenstern, Andrew
Morris, Samira Mubareka, Laveena Munshi, Christopher Mushquash, Ayodele Odutayo, Shahla
Oskooei, Menaka Pai, Samir Patel, Anna Perkhun, Bill Praamsma, Justin Presseau, Fahad Razak, Rob
Reid,* Paula Rochon, Laura Rosella, Michael Schull, Arjumand Siddiqi, Chris Simpson, Arthur Slutsky,
Janet Smylie, Nathan Stall, Robert Steiner, Ashleigh Tuite, Jennifer Walker, Tania Watts, Ashini
Weerasinghe, Scott Weese, Xiaolin Wei, Jianhong Wu, Diana Yan, Emre Yurga
* Chairs of Scientific Advisory, Evidence Synthesis, and Modelling Consensus Tables
For table membership and profiles, please visit the About and Partners pages on the Science
Advisory Table website.
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