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UNI NOVA University of Basel Research Magazine — N°135 / May 2020 How we make decisions. In conversation Debate Album Essay Antibiotics need Complementary medicine: Basel family trees in Greater equality: to work. a broad spectrum. the archives. gender and the law.
Editorial Team Contributors to this issue Decisions, decisions. The novel coronavirus pandemic has brought society and the economy to a virtual standstill. Suddenly, many of us have been confronted with unfamiliar circumstances Welcome and faced with new questions. Governments have had 1 to take drastic measures as they seek to determine how the public can be protected from the virus. Each and to Sci Five. every one of us has had to weigh up the risks of even a short walk outdoors. And physicians have faced hard decisions at the bedside – given the scarcity of The University ofBasel’s resources 2 in hospitals, many have had to make Science Blog in Englishas a judgement to whether intensive care is still worthwhile. unibas.ch/scifive A decision is defined as a choice between two or more alternatives and involves a number of complex cognitive processes. It’s worth taking the time to realize what 3 these processes are and to reflect on them: How are decisions made? Who makes which decisions, and 1 Jörg Rieskamp is a professor at the Fac- why? Many decisions depend on the degree of risk and ulty of Psychology of the University of Basel, where he leads the Center for Eco- uncertainty under which they are made. Experts also nomic Psychology. He has been involved distinguish, for example, between the known and un- in teaching and research at the Faculty known consequences of a specific choice – and consider since 2008. For many years, the 49-year- the probabilities of these consequences occurring. old has focused his research on the ways in which humans make decisions – a topic that also provides the focus of this This issue presents selected projects in the focus area issue. Pages 16–17 of decision research with participation by Basel academ- ics from the worlds of psychology, neuroscience and 2 Christina Baeriswyl studies visual com- economics. The majority of the content for this current munication at Bern University of the issue was produced before the coronavirus crisis hit. Arts. A self-described “Illustrateuse”, she runs her own studio for illustration, Researchers from the Faculty of Psychology who have graphic storytelling and data visualiza- contributed to this issue point out that they also speak tion in Zürich. In the images she has to public risk perception related to Covid-19 and respec- created for UNI NOVA, she shows the tive behavioral change. A recent initiative in which they assumptions and effects that are influ- have started to provide evidence-based policy recom- enced by our decisions. Pages 14–35 mendations can be found online. 3 Fiona Vicent takes an in-depth view of the family trees of bourgeois families We wish you every success in your future decisions – in Basel during the 18th and 19th cen- and stay healthy! turies. In her doctoral research, Vicent MONO MAJOR SPECIALIZED MASTERS shows how these diagrams reveal not Christoph Dieffenbacher, Photo: Brüderli Longhini just familial relations but also the net- works of those family clans that wield UNI NOVA editor Tuesday, 3 November 2020 Further Information: t.uzh.ch/masterinfo rich economic and symbolic influence. University of Zurich | Main Building Pages 40–49 Rämistrasse 71 | 8006 Zurich UNI NOVA 135 / 2020 3 2020_masterinfoevent_inserat_uninova_210x138.indd 2 16.03.20 11:47
Contents Overcoming antibiotic resistance: Our everyday lives are shaped by all manner of decisions. Christoph Dehio in conversation, page 8 Dossier 6 Kaleidoscope How we make 8 In conversation A better understanding of bacteria aims to facilitate the development decisions. of new drugs to overcome antibiotic resistance, says microbiologist Christoph Dehio. 16 “Different people make If children held the purse strings. 28 different decisions.” Investments are not always made 12 News Research into human decision- in an entirely rational manner. An Corona crisis, cultural management making brings together the fields experiment shows that children anniversary, Paracelsus, uni talks. of psychology and economics – already have the capacity to evaluate but their approaches differ. simple probabilities. 19 How tossing coins can help. 31 Once a risk-taker, always When faced with a difficult decision, a risk-taker. flipping a coin can potentially make Individual attitudes in this regard things easier. seem to follow a clear pattern over the course of a lifetime – in a similar 22 How our memory can trick us. manner to intelligence. UNI NOVA University of Basel Research Magazine — N°135 / May 2020 When we have to make a choice, we Be brave. Push boundaries. Change the future of healthcare together with us. often select the options that trigger 33 On gut feelings and financial the strongest memories. decisions. At Roche, we are working towards one goal: solving some of the greatest challenges for humanity using science and technology. Every day, our work impacts the lives of millions of patients all around the world. Sounds thrilling and you are interested in seeing more? It’s becoming increasingly clear https://go.roche.com/personalized_healthcare N°135 / May 2020 By challenging conventional thinking and our wild curiosity, we have become one of the world’s leading research- focused healthcare companies. This would not be possible without brilliant students/PhDs/ 25 “Risk can be positive, too.” that our emotions play a major role postdocs or recent graduates with a passion for: How we make UNI NOVA — Research Magazine • Natural Sciences/Life Sciences • Digital Sciences • Computer Sciences/IT • Engineering decisions. • Business What determines our willingness when making decisions. Be brave, take matters into your own hands. Apply at Roche for internships, trainee/fellowship programmes or entry-level positions. These development opportunities give you the chance to grow and make a difference to patients. You own your career. The next step is yours! genext.roche.com University of Basel to take risks? And are men bigger In conversation Debate Album Essay Antibiotics need Complementary medicine: Basel family trees in Greater equality: to work. a broad spectrum. the archives. gender and the law. 01_ROC_37_HR_20_224_Uni_Nova_(science)_210x280.indd 1 17.03.20 10:21 risk-takers than women? Cover photo Our daily lives are full of decisions. The effects that play a role here are visualized by Christina Baeriswyl in her series of illustrations. 4 UNI NOVA 135 / 2020
Contents Imprint UNI NOVA, University of Basel Research Magazine. Published by the University of Basel, Communi- cations & Marketing (Head: Matthias Geering). UNI NOVA is published twice a year; the next edition will be published in November 2020. Subscriptions are free of charge and can be ordered by email via uni-nova@unibas.ch. Free copies are available at several locations throughout the University of Basel and at other institutions in the Basel region. CONCEPT: Matthias Geering, Reto Caluori, Urs Hafner EDITORS: Reto Caluori, Christoph Dieffenbacher. Contributors: Iris Mickein, Michelle Isler ADDRESS: University of Basel, Communications & Marketing, PO Box, 4001 Basel, Switzerland. Tel. + 41 61 207 30 17 Email: uni-nova@unibas.ch DESIGN CONCEPT: New Identity Ltd., Basel LAYOUT: Studio Neo, Basel TRANSLATION: Sheila Regan and team, UNIWORKS (uni-works.org) PICTURES: Page 6: Mabel Alvarado; Page 7: Diana Vazquez; Fabiola Costanzo; Page 12: collage: Research into family trees: How bourgeois families in Basel collected Benjamin Kniel (2020), klinch.ch; Pages 40–49: State Archives Basel-Stadt: Stammbäume 53; and depicted genealogical data, page 40 Stammbäume 77; Stammbäume 171; Stammbäu- me 193; PA 212a C 3.3; PA 212a C 3.1; PA 212a C 6; PA 594a A 3; Page 51: Martin Oeggerli/Micronaut, supported by Nicola Aceto & Ali Fatih Sarioglu; Page 52: Thomas Kern; Page 55: Cantonal Hospi- tal Aarau; Page 56: Faculty of Psychology, Priska Hagmann-von Arx; Chrysoula Gubili; Page 63: University of Basel, Department of Pharmaceuti- cal Sciences; Page 65: Martin Steffen/German Historical Institute Paris. ILLUSTRATION: Christina Baeriswyl, Zürich (Dossier), Studio Nippoldt, Berlin (portraits). 36 My workplace 54 Research PROOFREADING: Birgit Althaler, Basel (German edition), Lesley Paganetti (English edition). In the cryo laboratory, physicists hen fever shuts down W PRINT: Birkhäuser+GBC AG, Reinach BL from the University of Basel cool the appetite. ADVERTISING: University of Basel, Head of Marketing & Event, Email: bea.gasser@unibas.ch nanostructures down to absolute Malnutrition has a negative impact PRINT RUN: 13,000 copies (German), zero. on the course of an illness. A new 1,000 copies (English) study has now been published. All rights reserved. Copies and reproduction of any kind require the permission of the editor. 38 Debate ISSN 1661-3147 (German print edition) ISSN 1661-3155 (German online edition) Complementary medicine, a sub- 57 Books ISSN 1664-5669 (English print edition) ISSN 1664-5677 (English online edition) ject for research and teaching? Latest publications by researchers ONLINE: unibas.ch/uninova Should complementary medicine at the University of Basel. facebook.com/unibasel instagram.com/unibasel be the subject of research just like twitter.com/unibasel_en other disciplines? 58 Essay Gender and the law. PERFORMAN CE 40 Album Why legal gender studies play an im- neutral Printed Matter Trees of relationships. portant role in democracy and justice. No. 01-20-357702 – www.myclimate.org © myclimate – The Climate Protection Partnership A historian investigates how bour- geois families in Basel during 60 Portrait the 18th and 19th centuries depicted “A supercomputer is like a family.” their personal histories in the Computer scientist Professor Florina form of family trees. Ciorba looks at ways of optimizing the interactions between machines. 50 Research Tracking metastasis. 62 Alumni When cancer cells break away from tumors and enter the bloodstream, 66 My book they can develop into metastases. Linguist Sandra Schlumpf-Thurnherr. UNI NOVA is also available in German and online. 52 Research issuu.com/unibasel Images of war. unibas.ch/uninova Bridges in ruins, people running: Press photographs from the Bosnian war and their visual language. UNI NOVA 135 / 2020 5
Kaleidoscope Entomology Darwin’s wasps. Wasps from the Ichneumonidae family lay their eggs However famous the remark, we still know very little on or in the larvae of other insects. Once hatched, about the ecology and development of these insects. the wasp larvae feast on the host’s organs – a parasitic The 25,000 species described today probably make lifestyle that Charles Darwin found deeply disturbing: up just a quarter of the total number. When experts at “I cannot persuade myself that a beneficent and omni a conference in Basel brainstormed a vernacular potent God would have designedly created the Ichneu name for the Ichneumonidae, they agreed on “Darwin monidae with the express intention of their feeding wasps.” The researchers hope that this name will within the living bodies of Caterpillars.” attract broader interest in the family. 6 UNI NOVA 135 / 2020
Kaleidoscope Urban research Urban limbo. Every day, a wave of commuters from the periphery flows into Cape Town’s suburbs and city center in the morning and back again in the evening. In particular, they in clude female domestic workers who spend a large part of their salary on trans port and strive to make their way in the world on a daily basis. Diana Vazquez accompanied the wom en on their often long journeys from home to work and followed their movements and experiences in order to find out what happens along the way and how this presents them with new challenges and aspirations. Her research project is part of Biomaterials the Master’s Program in Critical Urban isms, where Basel students spend a Tailored surface. semester at the University of Cape Town. instagram.com/critical_urbanisms This porous structure is part of a sophisti cated triple-layered membrane. As an implant, it is intended to support the regen eration of tissue at the interface of bone and soft tissue in the jaw and mouth area. Although the two outer layers of the membrane are both porous, they have dif ferent properties. Where the layer borders on bone, its structure supports colonization with cells that contribute to the formation of bone tissue. On the side that comes into contact with the mucous membrane, on the other hand, connective tissue cells can settle particularly well. The middle layer separates the two cell types and keeps them in balance. Yet that’s not all: The two outer layers contain precisely dosed active substances that specifically support the growth of the different cell types. The membrane is being developed by researchers from FHNW, the University of Basel and University Hospital Basel as well as CIS Pharma in Bubendorf. The Canton of Aargau is financing the project as part of the Nano Argovia program. UNI NOVA 135 / 2020 7
In conversation “Antibiotic resistance does not stop at borders in our globalized world.” Christoph Dehio 8 UNI NOVA 135 / 2020
In conversation “ Without effective antibiotics, we’ll lose the advances made by modern medicine.” Christoph Dehio from the University of Basel’s Biozentrum heads the National Center of Competence in Research (NCCR) AntiResist. The microbiologist argues for a paradigm shift in antibiotic research, the aim being to make the development of new drugs that overcome antibiotic resistance easier through a better understanding of the physiology of bacteria in humans. Interview: Urs Hafner Photo: Christian Flierl UNI NOVA: Professor Dehio, when my head pearance of resistant germs is making become a risk. That includes routine op- cold had still not cleared after three antibiotics more and more ineffective. erations of every kind, chemotherapies weeks, my family physician told me I UNI NOVA: We live in one of the cleanest against cancer, organ transplants, even would have to take an antibiotic. I countries in the world with excellent the treatment of bacterial pneumonia fol- thought now I’m going to put my body high-tech medicine. Reading the descrip- lowing an influenza infection. Older peo- through shock therapy, but I’ll be fit tion of the NCCR AntiResist that you ple will be especially impacted. Without again afterward. Is that right? head, creates the impression that we’re effective antibiotics, the tiniest infected CHRISTOPH DEHIO: Colds are primarily acutely threatened by all kinds of resist- wound may become a deadly risk again. caused by viruses. Antibiotics don’t help ant germs that are spreading. Are you UNI NOVA: How did we let it get to the in these cases. You must have had a sec- being a bit over dramatic? stage where our healthcare system has ondary infection with bacteria and the DEHIO: Unfortunately not. However, com- such a gap in provision? doctor prescribed the antibiotic to fight pared with many other countries, Swit- DEHIO: In 1928, Alexander Fleming discov- that. You probably got better quickly, but zerland is still a small paradise. This ered the antibiotic penicillin. After the we don’t know if it was really necessary doesn’t mean we don’t have any prob- end of the Second World War, this medi- to use an antibiotic in this circumstance. lems, but we have them still under con- cation was considered a panacea for dec- UNI NOVA: When is it really necessary? trol. However, antibiotic resistance does ades. Further antibiotics were discovered DEHIO: For example, if you’re taken to hos- not stop at borders in our globalized in quick succession, for example, strepto- pital with sepsis. Your life is in danger and world. Antibiotic-resistant germs are mycin, with which tuberculosis could be every minute counts. An antibiotic can coming to us from Southern Europe and combated effectively for the first time. save your life, provided that it’s actually the Far East. Sooner or later, medical in- That was the golden era of antibiotics re- effective. The steady increase in the ap- terventions that are largely safe today will search. Medicine cabinets were stuffed UNI NOVA 135 / 2020 9
In conversation full of effective antibiotics. We had the Christoph Dehio known antibiotics are ridiculously cheap feeling we had the problem of bacterial has been Professor of Microbiology because the patent rights have expired. infection under control, but then resist- at the Biozentrum of the Compared with other medical therapies, University of Basel since 2000. He ance kicked in. studied biology at the University treatment with antibiotics, which saves UNI NOVA: A drug suddenly stopped work- of Cologne and completed human lives rather than just prolonging ing? a doctorate at the Max Planck them, is almost free. Secondly, the indus- DEHIO: Exactly. So we took another one Institute for Plant Breeding try has made serious attempts to develop out of the cabinet, but in time multidrug Research there. He also worked at new antibiotics in recent decades but has the Institut Pasteur in Paris resistance arose. All of a sudden, certain and the Max Planck Institute for not succeeded. This may in large part be germs were resistant to all available anti- Biology in Tübingen. He is a due to the artificial laboratory conditions biotics. No therapy will work at all in this member of the National Academy they work in. The cultivated bacteria do case. of Sciences Leopoldina and the not resemble the physiological condition UNI NOVA: How did resistance come about? European Molecular Biology of the germs in our bodies. In the labora- Organization. Since 2019, Dehio DEHIO: Through the widespread use of an- tory, bacteria grow at maximum speed, has headed the National Center tibiotics, human beings have accelerated of Competence in Research but in the body only slowly or not at all. a natural evolutionary process to the (NCCR) AntiResist. Initially, work was successful under these point that it has become a major problem conditions, but the method has reached for medicine. Bacteria in the soil produce its limits. Innovation has ground to a halt antibiotics to prevent other bacteria from NCCR AntiResist and we only ever find out what we al- growing. So that they themselves can The National Center of Compe ready knew. grow, these antibiotic producers also ex- tence in Research (NCCR) UNI NOVA: So research used to be very suc- AntiResist is searching for new press resistances. Those were always cessful even though it worked under non- strategies to combat antibiotic- there, just not in the germs that are dan- resistant germs. It undertakes natural conditions? gerous for us humans. However, bacteria interdisciplinary research into how DEHIO: Exactly. Most known antibiotics exchange their genetic information. That the biochemical and biophysical were discovered using these artificial is how resistant genes ended up in germs processes of bacterial pathogens conditions. progress in infected patients. that cause disease in humans. So treat- UNI NOVA: How do you intend to work? These processes are then simulated ment with antibiotics actually breeds re- in tissue models intended DEHIO: In the lab, we try to simulate as sistant pathogens. The more widely the to enable the development of new realistically as possible the conditions active substance is used, the bigger the active substances and working that exist in infected tissues of our body. problem caused by the spread of these principles. The main location We still know astonishingly little about of the NCCR is the Biozentrum of resistant pathogens. this. To close this gap in our knowledge, the University of Basel, with UNI NOVA: If you now develop new antibi- the involvement of the Department we first need material from patients, that otics as part of your research, won’t you of Biomedicine of the university, is tissue samples from infected people. aggravate the problem and accelerate this University Hospital Basel, the UNI NOVA: Where do you get the samples vicious circle? Department of Biosystems Science from? and Engineering (D-BSSE) of the DEHIO: No, on the contrary. We urgently DEHIO: We use patient material resulting ETH Zurich in Basel and other need new antibiotics based on new prin- academic institutions in Zurich from routine examinations in the hospi- ciples that can kill the existing multidrug- and Lausanne. The Swiss National tal, for example urine, bronchial secre- resistant germs. But that’s only ever a Science Foundation is supporting tions or infected tissue that is removed in short-lived victory because resistance to the NCCR in its initial orthopedic operations. With these sam- funding phase with 17 million any new active substance will arise sooner ples, we determine the physiology of the Swiss francs. or later. We need new active substances bacteria in the human body. We then from time to time to get one step ahead simulate the infection process on a min- of the resistant germs in the race against iature scale, for example, by using human bacterial evolution. mini-tissue on a biochip. In this way, we UNI NOVA: Why has the pharmaceutical can search for new active substances. industry not produced any new antibiot- UNI NOVA: Is this process also used else- ics recently? where? DEHIO: First of all, the market has stopped DEHIO: Only to some extent. Our unique working. There is no money in antibiotics characteristic is the ideal research envi- any more. The main reason is that the ronment in Basel. Here at the Biozen- 10 UNI NOVA 135 / 2020
In conversation trum, we have excellent fundamental UNI NOVA: What if the NCCR and the new researchers who interact closely with in- antibiotics it is helping to develop did not fectious disease specialists at the Univer- exist? What would happen? sity Hospital. We also collaborate with DEHIO: With the NCCR, we want to bring bioengineers at the Department of Biosys- about a paradigm shift in antibiotics re- tems Science and Engineering (D-BSSE) of search, but luckily there are more re- the ETH Zurich in Basel, who work with search activities in this field, in both the mini-tissues. And, importantly, we have academic and the industrial sector, that pharmaceutical companies here, such as could contribute to innovation. If collec- Roche, as well as SMEs already active in tively we do not succeed in developing antibiotics development. new antibiotics, humanity will increas- UNI NOVA: And the intention is that the ingly suffer from the impacts of resist- pharmaceutical industry will bring the ance. A study commissioned by the Brit- new drugs to market. ish government forecast that by 2050 DEHIO: Yes, and with our research we’ll more people would die from antibiotic create a new basis for the drug discovery resistance than from cancer in this sce- and development process. The interface nario. You can imagine what that would with industry is very important. We in- mean for society and what costs would be volved companies early in the develop- incurred. The risk of dying from a routine ment of our research concept. medical intervention or a simple infec- UNI NOVA: The market is not working, you tion would suddenly be as great as in the said. So what has to change? 19th century. We have to prevent that. DEHIO: One way is for health systems to spend more money on antibiotic treat- ments. This is already the case in the UK, and other countries, such as the US, are considering it. As soon as there is money to be made again, more companies and investors will get back into antibiotics development. Or you create new incen- tive systems: The company that develops a new antibiotic earns a market entry re- ward if it is successfully introduced to the “ Treatment market. This instrument takes account of with antibiotics the fact that a new antibiotic is first sup- plied only to a cabinet of reserved medica- actually breeds tions so that initial sales are low. resistant UNI NOVA: Why? DEHIO: Because a new antibiotic that is pathogens.” deployed too widely will immediately Christoph Dehio give rise to resistance and would soon become ineffective. It has to be reserved for seriously sick patients who urgently need effective medication. UNI NOVA: You’re a biologist. Do you wish you were also an economist? DEHIO: No, the market mechanisms and regulatory measures are the preserve of business and politics. Our NCCR is con- cerned with scientific innovations at the early stage of antibiotics discovery and development. UNI NOVA 135 / 2020 11
News Culture, Corona and Chemistry. Coronavirus pandemic The minimum necessary and the maximum possible. The coronavirus pandemic has also forced the University of Basel to take drastic measures: This spring semester’s class- room teaching has been canceled, staff have been sent home to work and re- search has been reduced to a bare mini- mum. These measures are intended to protect the health of members of the university and to help stem the spread of the pandemic. Lecturers have moved their teaching activities over to digital channels, stu- dents have had to reorganize their studies and individual doctoral students and post- docs revised their career plans. In addi- tion, research projects have had to be Continuing education programs postponed. It has been impressive to see how keen many University of Basel re- 20 years of cultural searchers are to contribute, through their work, to improving our understanding of management. the spread of the virus and developing measures to tackle it. The cultural management degree program at the University of The degree Basel celebrates its 20th anniversary this year. One of the first of program in cultural management its type in Switzerland, this two-year continuing education pro- combines practical gram provides students with advanced knowledge and skills at cultural work and the interface between culture and management, cultural pro- academic teaching. duction and cultural policy. Since its inception, more than 500 people have earned their MAS in Cultural Management, a quali- fication recognized in the European Education Area. The part-time program, which can also be studied in individual modules, covers cultural studies, topics relating to management, communication and media, legal issues, cultural policy and practical skills. It places particular importance on cultural reflection, and this is echoed in the online magazine created to mark its 20th anniversary. 202020.ch 12 UNI NOVA 135 / 2020
The magazine that tells you even more. Science in conversation Uni talks in Baselland. Subscribe for free. In fall 2020, the University of Basel will hold four panel discussions in Liestal and Sissach in which ex- perts from the university and the region will address current topics together with the audience. Two dis- cussions on “decisions” and pensions will be held in UNI NOVA University of Basel Research Magazine — N°135 / May 2020 Liestal in September. In November, two Be brave. Pushfurther boundaries. events in Sissach will focus on families andof other Change the future healthcare together with us. At Roche, we are working towards one goal: solving some forms of partnership as well as on the fight against of the greatest challenges for humanity using science and technology. Every day, our work impacts the lives of millions of patients all around the world. Sounds thrilling and you are interested in seeing more? antibiotic resistance. https://go.roche.com/personalized_healthcare unibas.ch/uni-talk The University of Basel’s N°135 / May 2020 By challenging conventional thinking and our wild curiosity, we have become one of the world’s leading research- focused healthcare companies. This would not be possible without brilliant students/PhDs/ postdocs or recent graduates with a passion for: How we make research magazine can UNI NOVA — Research Magazine • Natural Sciences/Life Sciences • • Digital Sciences Computer Sciences/IT decisions. • • Engineering Business Be brave, take matters into your own hands. Apply at be delivered quickly and Roche for internships, trainee/fellowship programmes or entry-level positions. These development opportunities give you the chance to grow and make a difference to patients. You own your career. The next step is yours! conveniently to your door. genext.roche.com Simply order free online. University of Basel In conversation Debate Album Essay Antibiotics need Complementary medicine: Basel family trees in Greater equality: to work. a broad spectrum. the archives. gender and the law. 01_ROC_37_HR_20_224_Uni_Nova_(science)_210x280.indd 1 17.03.20 10:21 unibas.ch/uninova Chemical landmark Honoring Paracelsus. Please cut out the coupon and send to: Paracelsus, the Swiss physician, alchemist and natu- University of Basel, Communications, Petersgraben 35, P. O. Box, 4001 Basel ral philosopher, is one of the most famous people to UNI NOVA is published twice a year. have ever taught at the University of Basel. He came to Basel in 1527 as a municipal doctor and professor Please send me the edition of UNI NOVA in: of medicine. In his lectures, some of which were held German English in German, he aimed to reform medicine and align it with practical experiences and experiments – to Please deliver my copy of UNI NOVA to: adapt it to patients’ needs. The Swiss Academy of Sci- ences is to honor Paracelsus by designating “Zum Vorderen Sessel”, one of his places of work, as a his- Surname, first name toric site of chemistry. The building currently houses the Pharmacy Museum of the University of Basel. pharmaziemuseum.ch Street, number or PO box ZIP code, town/city Email Date, signature 13
Dossier How we make decisions. Illustrations: Christina Baeriswyl Which is the best option to choose? Should I take a risk in doing so or rather avoid it? We make decisions throughout our lives – yet only few of these are made consciously. 14 UNI NOVA 135 / 2020
Dossier Attraction effect. Imagine you want to buy a TV sive set that was much worse and can’t make up your mind than the first expensive set, between a cheap, simple set you’d opt for the first expen and an expensive high-end set. sive set. According to tradition If the choice was then expanded al economic theories of deci to include another cheap TV sion-making, however, this that was much worse than the shouldn’t happen. The attrac first cheap TV, you’d choose tion effect describes how the the first cheap TV. If, instead addition of a third option of two cheap sets, your choice affects a choice between two now included a second expen other options. UNI NOVA 135 / 2020 15
Dossier “ Different people make different decisions.” Research into human decision-making brings together the fields of psychology and economics. One of the first researchers to study this topic intensively at the University of Basel is Professor Jörg Rieskamp. Interview: Christoph Dieffenbacher UNI NOVA: Professor Rieskamp, it is said that an adult impact on decisions, and these traits tend to remain human has to make tens of thousands of decisions relatively stable over an entire lifetime – for in- every day. Why do we still know so little about this stance, people differ in terms of what is known as field? their risk preference: Most people are risk-averse, Jörg Rieskamp JÖRG RIESKAMP: Although the psychology of decision- but there are also people who enjoy taking risks. At is a professor at making is a relatively new area of science, we’ve the same time, our duties and demands vary over the the Faculty of now moved beyond the very early stages – and re- course of our lives, and the decisions we make will Psychology of the University of Basel, searchers have already presented a number of in- be more or less risky depending on the situation. Key where he leads sights. For example, decision-making research re- factors in this include a person’s age and the corre- the Center for Eco ceived particular attention around 20 years ago sponding resources at their disposal. nomic Psychology. when two researchers from the USA, Daniel Kahne- UNI NOVA: In this type of research, the fields of eco- Before joining man, a psychologist, and Vernon L. Smith, an econ- nomics and psychology work hand in hand with one the University of Basel in 2008, omist, were awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics another. Is the latter supposed to help the former he worked at the in recognition of their work. Our research involves keep the economic system running as a whole? Max Planck Insti a constant interplay with economics, whose theo- RIESKAMP: I wouldn’t say it’s supposed to help. As tute for Human ries often postulate a rational individual. Yet instead psychologists, we focus our attention elsewhere – Development in of normativity, we psychologists are more inter- our aim is to explain how people make decisions. If Berlin. He now examines how ested in the basic cognitive processes that underly our descriptions of human behavior yield different decisions are made judgments and decisions … results from those of the economists, then these in circumstances UNI NOVA: … and, in doing so, you draw a distinction findings can aid the development of more realistic of risk and uncer from the concept of homo economicus, which is economic models. At the University of Basel, one tainty, and devel guided by the greatest economic benefit? example of this relationship is our Bernoulli Net- ops theories and RIESKAMP: Yes, that’s the point. An individual’s deci- work, which focuses on the interplay between psy- models that can be used to explain sions depend on many factors, including the situa- chology and economics. human judgments tion and context, and these factors can have differ- UNI NOVA: When people become customers and inves- and decision- ent effects on different people. For example, we’ve tors: How close is the relationship between econom- making. shown that certain personality traits have a profound ics and psychology in decision research? 16 UNI NOVA 135 / 2020
Dossier RIESKAMP: There are a number of key differences: In tion of the reference class – the class of events or many individual decisions, the potential conse- objects to which the probability refers. quences are not entirely certain – or, as we psycholo- UNI NOVA: Do you see yourself more as a basic or an gists would say, decisions are made in circumstances application-oriented researcher? of uncertainty and risk. In the context of consumer RIESKAMP: Both. By examining the cognitive processes behavior, we often neglect this uncertainty: When that underly a variety of different decisions in hu- choosing a detergent in the supermarket, we assume mans, we are clearly acting as basic researchers. But that the price is fixed and won’t be changed at the the beautiful thing about this branch of science is checkout. Quite the opposite is true when it comes that by explaining decisions, we can also quickly to decisions to invest in retirement plans, for exam- establish their practical relevance and their link to ple. Investing in shares doesn’t necessarily produce real-world applications. For example, a person who a high yield, especially when viewed in the short is very risk-averse in their general behavior should term. Here, it’s important to account for people’s dif- be advised against investing their entire fortune in ferent risk preferences and gauge their risk toler- shares on a short-term basis. ance. In the aftermath of the last financial crisis, banks were even obliged to provide customers with more-detailed information about the available prod- ucts and the levels of risk they carry. UNI NOVA: We make decisions with uncertain conse- quences on a daily basis. Is a decision therefore a choice between two different risks? RIESKAMP: Yes, and this is clear when it comes to ques- tions of health. For example, many people initially struggled to evaluate and assess the risk associated with the coronavirus, which is obviously partly due to the rapidly changing circumstances. And, when “ The risk of new and choosing a mode of transport, many people are una- frightening hazards is often ware of the considerable differences in risk – that is, how dangerous riding a motorcycle is compared to overestimated, while driving a car and, by contrast, how safe you actually we underestimate the risk are on an airplane, statistically speaking. People as- sess specific risks and hazards differently and not associated with hazards always accurately. The risk of new and frightening we’ve been dealing hazards is often overestimated, while we underesti- mate the risk associated with hazards we’ve been with for a long time and dealing with for a long time and are familiar with. At are familiar with.” the same time, the subjective perception of a risk Jörg Rieskamp, psychologist often fails to reflect the objective danger. UNI NOVA: Would it be wrong to conclude that hu- mans are not particularly good at estimating risk and probability? RIESKAMP: Well, probability theory is a branch of mathematics, which many people aren’t particularly good at. In new situations, therefore, people often struggle to make specific and accurate estimates of probability. On the other hand, if someone has a lot of experience in an area and is considered an expert, their estimates can be very accurate. For example, meteorologists are very good at dealing with state- ments of probability in weather forecasts. Commu- nicating and improving the understanding of prob- abilities, however, calls for a more accurate explana- UNI NOVA 135 / 2020 17
Dossier Aversion to ambiguity. Researchers draw a distinction demonstrate that people are between risk and ambiguity. more averse to ambiguity than Risk is uncertainty about known to risk. Our aversion to ambi probabilities. This applies to guity is very easy to observe in roulette, because it is easy to everyday life. When renting a calculate the probability of car, for instance, most of us try winning. Ambiguity is uncer to avoid a deductible, even tainty about unknown probabil though it’s highly unlikely that ities. This applies to poker, we’ll damage the car. Yet be because we don’t know which cause we don’t know the prob cards the other players have ability exactly, we sidestep in their hands. It is possible to the deductible. 18 UNI NOVA 135 / 2020
Dossier How tossing coins can help. When faced with a difficult decision, flipping a coin can make things easier. You’re under no obligation to do as it says, but it could trigger feelings and thought processes. Text: David Herrmann M aking decisions is tough. This choice before starting my doctorate in sions. A second study, this time using a young lawyer would agree: Af- Basel: Should I stay in business consulting dice instead of a coin, reached the same ter graduating, he had two at- or go into academia?,” says Jaffé. She de- conclusion. tractive job offers on the table. One was cided to join the team led by Professor Jaffé says the coins and dice function in a big law firm with a good salary and Rainer Greifeneder at the Faculty of Psy- as catalysts that make it easier to choose: career prospects, but long hours and lots chology. As part of a project funded by the “With the coin, you commit to one of the of overtime. The other was from a smaller Swiss National Science Foundation, she options, which then becomes concrete law firm. The salary and career prospects and her colleagues hope to find out why and therefore tangible. That in turn trig- weren’t as rosy, but the working hours tossing a coin can help us make decisions. gers feelings: Do I agree with the choice promised a great deal of flexibility. So or not? How do I respond to the out- what was he to do? He weighed up the An appetizing five-course meal come?” The survey also showed that the arguments, wrote lists of pros and cons, The starting point for their work was a participants, precisely as specified the but still couldn’t make up his mind. Then number of studies in which the partici- study design, didn’t always stick with the he tossed a coin, which told him to go for pants were allowed to put together a five- result of the coin toss. If they weren’t the big law firm. Yet he didn’t feel com- course meal. The dishes on offer were all happy with the outcome, the participants fortable with the idea at all, so he decided very tasty, which made the choice harder. were free to choose a different option – to take the other job. Before each decision, the participants just like the young lawyer, whose coin The lawyer was at the beginning of a flipped a coin and were asked to view the showed him what he didn’t want to do. research project at the University of Basel. result as just a decision-making aide A group of social psychologists at the uni- rather than a strict instruction. This type Intuition suddenly becomes visible versity – Mariela Jaffé, Leonie Reutner, of coin toss is therefore different to the An act as simple and unremarkable as Maria Douneva and Rainer Greifeneder – ones used in sport – for instance, to tossing a coin can genuinely release us had been observing for some time in their choose a goal in soccer. There, the result from the anguish of making decisions. By private lives that many people find it very is binding. The study found that a coin establishing this, the work of the Basel hard to make decisions. “I faced a similar toss really does help people make deci- research group has filled a gap: Previous UNI NOVA 135 / 2020 19
Dossier studies focused on the coin toss in soccer, “Some people feel that a person who where it acts as the decision-maker. The reached a decision in this way is more findings that show how a coin toss can act responsible for the negative outcome,” as a catalyst, however, are new. Flipping a explains Jaffé. Conversely, the coin can coin can help make our intuition visible also assume a doubling function – when and connect us with our gut instinct. it corresponds to the person’s own deci- “Now we’re interested in whether ac- sion. “The participants could feel vali- ceptance of the coin toss varies across dated in their opinion, while others see different decision-making styles, which in them as being more responsible for the humans can range from rational to intui- outcome than if they had just let fate tive,” says Jaffé. Initial results show that decide.” people who tend to rely on their intuition can deal better with the idea of tossing a Decisions also mean sacrifices coin. They can then make their own deci- Flipping a coin can help us make deci- sion based on how they feel about what sions more easily in our private lives. Yet the coin says. “However, it appears that the psychologists also say that the find- flipping a coin is not the preferred deci- ings could conceivably be transferred to sion-making strategy among more delib- the world of work. Corporate decision- erate decision-makers,” says Jaffé. makers could ease their burden by using Things become tricky, however, if a a coin to test out decisions in difficult person rejects the result of the coin toss situations. However, the researchers say and makes a different decision which that the feelings and considerations that then turns out to have been a mistake. ultimately lead to the decision should be underpinned by facts. “People are un- likely to appreciate managers who say that their decision was based on a coin toss,” says Jaffé with a smile. Every day, we make countless choices between different options. Every decision also means giving something up. The law- yer, for instance, gave up money and ca- reer prospects in favor of time and flexi- bility. Jaffé is planning a follow-up project that will investigate how the results differ “Every day, we make when the participants know from the countless choices outset what they are forfeiting. Specifi- cally, this involves her showing psychol- between different options. ogy students either a Snickers or a pack- Every decision age of Smarties – both of which are very popular snacks. The coin toss makes a also means giving choice for the participants, but here again something up.” it serves as an aid and is not binding. Jaffé expects this situation to trigger Mariela Jaffé, psychologist stronger forfeiting in response to the coin toss: “After all, the participants know ex- actly what they are giving up if they de- cide against the coin.” As yet, the ques- tion of whether the participants were ul- timately happy with their choice has not been investigated. Perhaps the lawyer will change his mind and begin climbing the career ladder further down the line. 20 UNI NOVA 135 / 2020
Dossier Memory bias. You’re sitting in the office think actually like it so much. There ing about where to eat lunch. are at least two explanations You don’t have the restaurants for this behavior. Firstly, if you in front of you, so you have can’t remember something to retrieve them from your very clearly, then you suspect memory. In this situation, peo that it can’t have been very ple prefer options that they good. Secondly, a poor memo can recall more clearly. If you ry of something means that have clear memories of the you can’t be completely sure fast-food place around the about it, so it’s an uncertain corner, you’re also more likely option – and people don’t like to choose it – even if you don’t uncertainty and ambiguity. UNI NOVA 135 / 2020 21
Dossier How our memory can trick us. When we have to make a choice, we often select the options that trigger the strongest memories. One reason for this is that weak memories tend to make us feel uncertain. Text: Martin Hicklin W hen faced with decisions in everyday situ- ilar to the well-known Matching Pairs memory game. ations, we constantly rely on the more or At the end, they were asked to choose between cards less reliable memories that are drawn without actually seeing the snack in question. from our “episodic memory” system. For example, This experimental setup proved valid. A complex we need these when choosing a restaurant to go to Sebastian Gluth study with 30 participants demonstrated that the lunch with our colleagues. Or if we are planning a is a professor and participants in this situation mostly chose the op- weekend hiking trip with friends. Head of the Center tions that triggered the strongest memories. Interest- When this happens, different options play out for Decision ingly, this was still the case even when the snack had Neuroscience at the before our mind’s eye, calling up memories that are been given a poor rating beforehand. University of either very vivid or rather faint. Interestingly, very Basel’s Faculty of This effect is referred to as “memory bias”. Al- little research has been conducted on the relation- Psychology. though the study provided empirical evidence for the ship between memory and the cognitive process of presence of this effect, it did not allow to understand decision-making, although they are used every day. the mechanisms at play. In an attempt to answer this A team headed by Professor Sebastian Gluth at the question, Gluth and his doctoral students Regina Center for Decision Neuroscience at the Faculty of Weilbächer and Peter Kraemer tested the hypothesis Psychology sets out to change this. The relationship that choosing an option of which you have no or very between specific memories stored in our episodic little memory is similar to choosing an uncertain op- memory and the decision-making process is Gluth’s tion. And a lot of research has shown that uncer- primary research focus. tainty is disliked very much and tends to be avoided. Memory bias Risks taken in the face of losses Some years ago, Gluth and his team investigated why The experiment conducted by Gluth and his col- certain options win over others and how objectively leagues drew on an older, well-established observa- our memory influences our decisions. This research tion in uncertainty research: Where there are poten- was not conducted in restaurants or on hiking trails, tial gains, people prefer the safest choice and avoid however. Instead, the tests took place on computer lotteries and games of chance, as shown in numerous screens in a laboratory. Participants were first asked studies by teams led by psychologists Amos Tversky to evaluate different snacks and then learned to link and Daniel Kahneman over the past few decades. these snacks with specific cards on the screen – sim- Conversely, people are more likely to take risks if 22 UNI NOVA 135 / 2020
Dossier they are trying to avoid certain losses. Kahneman and Tversky call this phenomenon the “reflection ef- fect”. Building on these findings and the hypothesis that uncertainty is one reason for memory bias, Gluth and his team tested the prediction that the memory bias also works in reverse when making “ We look at decisions that involve potential losses. And indeed: The experiment did show that how we can predict choices based on memory with the prospect of a re- decisions as ward resulted in the “safe” options with strong as- sociated memories being chosen. The very opposite accurately and occurred when it came to avoiding losses. The predic- detailed tions thus proved to be correct, leading to a better understanding of the role that memory plays in deci- as possible.” sion-making where risks are involved. Sebastian Gluth, psychologist This could have all manner of consequences. Older people tend to be more wary of risks than younger people when making decisions, for exam- ple. General prejudice would regard this as the re- sult of older people being more set in their ways. Yet maybe the reason for this is the quite different and surprising explanation by dwindling memories. Al- though this phenomenon has not (yet) been tested and confirmed experimentally (unlike the fact of in finding out how our thoughts and decision-mak- declining memory performance with age), current ing processes work. I’m not simply interested in research by the team at the Center for Decision Neu- knowing what this or that part of the brain does.” roscience supports the strong assumption that it To achieve maximum transparency, Gluth and exists. his team have adhered to the golden rules of open “In our work, we look at how we can predict de- science from the very outset. This brings about huge cisions as accurately and detailed as possible. We benefits in terms of the repeatability of the experi- target decisions on various levels of analysis,” ex- ments and the reproducibility of the scientific re- plains Gluth. He is assistant professor and Head of sults. This is why all the experiments and the planned the Center for Decision Neuroscience, which is one approach is meticulously recorded in advance. Other strand of the focal area in social, economic and deci- researchers and interested parties, for example, can sion psychology. “We work very closely with one visit the Open Science Framework server (OSF, www. another within the faculty. As the official description osf.io) and see immediately which hypotheses are be- goes, what connects us is ‘our passion for research ing tested, what data form the basis of their predic- into human decision-making in a social and eco- tions, what is known already and what the planned nomic context’.” approach is. Information on the recruitment and the number Neuroscientific processes of participants, what measures were taken to pro- What Gluth brings to the table is experience in neu- duce statistically robust results—this, too, is made roscientific methods such as functional magnetic available online in advance, even the scripts for the resonance imaging (fMRI). This is a unique selling models used to perform the calculations. This is an point. These methods are instrumental when it open invitation for constructive, creative criticism. comes to identifying the processes inside the brain Once a paper is ready for publication, it is first made that connect with the psychological processes exam- available for peer review on a preprint server for psy- ined here. Gluth, however, sees this method primar- chological research before submission to an aca- ily as an additional tool. These methods will, above demic journal. Only then is the paper published, and all, help testing the validity of the decision-making preferably in a specialist journal that allows open models and improving them. “First and foremost, access without a paywall. What more can you ask for I’m a psychologist,” comments Gluth, “I’m interested publicly funded research. UNI NOVA 135 / 2020 23
Dossier Good mood leads to snap decisions. If you’re in a positive frame of quality of your choice is linked mind, you won’t make optimal to how many offers you con decisions. This is according sider. Spend too little time to findings by researchers from looking, and you risk missing the University of Basel. They the best offer. Yet waiting too investigated so-called sequen long also puts you at risk, tial decisions, which occur as someone else might beat frequently in daily life, such as you to it. The researchers found when buying a house or look that the better the participants ing for a job. You receive a were feeling, the quicker sequence of offers that you can they were to accept an option. either accept or reject. With The effect occurred more fre these types of decision, the quently in older participants. 24 UNI NOVA 135 / 2020
Dossier “ Risk can be positive, too.” What determines our willingness to take risks? Cognitive psychologist Jana Jarecki tackles this question in her research at the University of Basel. Her studies show that risk is generally not an end in itself, but rather a means to the end of satisfying certain needs. Interview: Andreas W. Schmid UNI NOVA: Dr. Jarecki, you are a decision JARECKI: In this particular instance, yes. personal preference – it also depends on researcher. How often do you choose to But we have to be careful with generaliza- the situation. A good example from the take risks yourself ? tions of this sort – risk can vary from one animal kingdom is given in a study by JANA JARECKI: Certainly more at work than area of life to the next. For example, stud- Alasdair Houston and John McNamara: in my private life. Being a researcher is a ies have shown that on the stock market, Consider a little bird that needs 1,000 risky proposition, in the sense that re- complex investment strategies are not calories so as not to freeze to death at search does not offer a great deal of job necessarily any more successful than in- night in the winter. During the day, it security. If it was job security I wanted, I’d vestment decisions made at random by searches for food. If the search is success- have to work in a different field. someone with no experience whatsoever. ful, there is no need to take risks. But on UNI NOVA: How do you define risk? This is because in the stock market, risk a bad day, on which the bird has still not JARECKI: In risk research, decisions that is exogenous – which is to say, the market found much food as sunset approaches, it we describe as risky can have both nega- is subject to external influences. This is forced by the situation to take greater tive and positive consequences. This defi- means that even an experienced trader is risks – such as venturing into areas with nition contrasts with the everyday usage often unable to anticipate events. more predators. In this case, risk-taking is of the concept of risk, where it is almost UNI NOVA: Warren Buffett would probably not an end in itself, but rather a means to exclusively associated with negative out- beg to differ. the end of satisfying its needs. comes – hazards and costs. Risk can be JARECKI: There are people that have UNI NOVA: To what extent do these find- positive, too. For someone with no climb- achieved somewhat unlikely things. War- ings from the animal kingdom apply to ing experience, attempting to scale a rock ren Buffett is one of them. But I’d like to human behavior? face may well involve a substantial risk of see what would happen if there were 100 JARECKI: In a recent risk study, we con- falling. For an expert climber the risk is Warren Buffetts operating in the financial fronted participants with situations anal- much lower: Their experience puts them markets, rather than just one – and ogous to that of the little bird. The par- in a better position to evaluate the situa- whether they would all achieve the same ticipants were asked to play an online tion, and their skills have been honed results. I have my doubts. game in which they had to make deci- through years of practice. UNI NOVA: What determines a person’s sions to reach a given score, with lower- UNI NOVA: So, more experience means less propensity to take risks? risk and higher-risk options. When the risk? JARECKI: Risk-taking is not just a matter of target score was higher, their willingness UNI NOVA 135 / 2020 25
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