Research Posters Promoting key research fi ndings of the Bushfi re and Natural Hazards CRC - Bushfire & Natural Hazards CRC
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Research Posters Promoting key research findings of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC @bnhcrc bnhcrc.com.au
© 2021 Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Publisher: Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Report no. 664 May 2021 The Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative All photographs are credited to the Bushfire and Research Centre advises that the information Natural Hazards CRC unless otherwise noted. contained in this publication comprises general statements based on scientific research. All material in this document, except as identified below, The reader is advised and needs to be aware is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution- that such information may be incomplete or Non-Commercial 4.0 International Licence. unable to be used in any specific situation. Material not licensed under the Creative Commons licence: No reliance or actions must therefore be made on that information without seeking prior • Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC logo expert professional, scientific and technical • Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources logo advice. To the extent permitted by law, the • Cooperative Research Centres Program logo Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC exclude all • All photographs liability to any person for any consequences, • All figures and graphics including but not limited to all losses, damages, • All organisation logos costs, expenses and any other compensation, All rights are reserved in content not licenced under the arising directly or indirectly from using this Creative Commons licence. Permission must be sought publication (in part or in whole) and any from the copyright owner to use this material. information or material contained in it.
INTRODUCTION Since 2013, the Bushfire and A prominent and engaging take-away for attendees of each Natural Hazards CRC has hosted an feature of the conference was conference’s Research Forum. annual conference in partnership the collection of research project The 2020 annual conference was with the Australasian Fire and and PhD program posters. cancelled due to COVID-19, so Emergency Service Authorities this poster book, the seventh in Council, following a similar 10-year Each year, around 100 the poster book series, presents partnership with the Bushfire CRC. posters were displayed all the final research posters from This presented the CRC with an the CRC’s research program. opportunity to demonstrate the that summarised the This collection summarises much latest science and lessons learned topics, methodology and of the CRC’s research and is an invaluable contribution to the on issues of most relevance to all conference attendees. Each year key findings from across better understanding of natural hazard science in our community. the conference was in a different the student and research state or territory, as well as New It is supported by three other end- Zealand, and attendees came from cohort at the CRC. of-CRC publications: Highlights a diverse range of fields, including and Achievements 2013–2021, This offered a simple but effective Hazard Notes 2013–2021 and the emergency management and way to help researchers explain their Postgraduate Research. These are response sector, governments of findings clearly and concisely to an all available on the CRC’s website. all levels, research organisations audience beyond their usual networks. and universities, volunteer The posters are also available organisations, community and To ensure that the posters lived on, within the themes on the health organisations, fire technology they were collected into an annual CRC’s Driving Change website: industries and the general public. poster book each year – a feature www.bnhcrc.com.au/driving-change. Introduction 1
CONTENTS DISASTER RESILIENCE 21 Understanding the need for, availability of, and interpretation of information by the 6 The Australian Disaster Resilience public during large scale hazard events Index Dashboard K Akers M Parsons, J Boshoff, I Reeve 22 Through Children’s Eyes: Disaster Risk 7 Recovery Capitals (ReCap) Reduction Education for Children, L Gibbs, D Johnston, P Quinn, D Blake, with Children and by Children E Campbell, J Richardson M Rashid, JC Gaillard, K Ronan, Q Alam, B Towers 8 Mapping community engagement for preparedness in Australia K Johnston, B Ryan, M Taylor EXTREME WEATHER 24 Impact-based forecasting for the ECONOMICS, MITIGATION coastal zone: East Coast Lows AND VALUE H Richter, C Arthur, D Wilke, B Ebert, M Dunford, M Wehner 10 Improved decision support for 25 Improved predictions of severe weather: natural hazard risk reduction The meteorology of the Tathra bushfire G A Riddell, H van Delden, H R Maier, D Wilke, J Kepert, K Tory, P Fox-Hughes R Vanhout, A C Zecchin, G C Dandy 26 Improved Predictions of Severe 11 The Economics of Natural Hazards Weather: Ember Transport V Florec, A Rogers, A Hailu, D Pannell J Kepert, W Thurston, K Tory 12 Disasters and Economic Resilience: 27 Real-time trial of the Pyrocumulonimbus The income effects of Cyclone Oswald Firepower Threshold: A prediction tool on Small Business Owners – a case study for deep moist pyroconvection on the Burnett River Catchment Area K Tory, J Kepert M Ulubasoglu 28 Improving Flash Flood Response Outcomes 13 Urban Form and Disaster Rick Reduction: Through Emergency Warnings and Improved Developing Performance Criteria for Regional Forecasting Techniques Urban Areas Exposed to Flooding K Robinson, S Corney, P Fox-Hughes, A March, S Kabir, K Davidson, G Mocatta, C White, J Bennett, C Irvine, L Nogueira de Moraes F Ling, L Roberts, C Velasco-Forero 14 The Value of BNHCRC Research J Handmer, A Keating, K Strahan FIRE PREDICTIVE SERVICES EDUCATION AND 30 ACCESS-Fire: a case study M Peace, J Greenslade, J D Kepert, H Ye COMMUNICATIONS 31 Dynamic wind reduction factor in 16 Flood Risk Communication predicting fire rate of spread M Taylor, M Tofa, K Haynes M Rashid, J Hilton, D Sutherland, K Moinuddin 17 Adding Colour and Icons to 32 Fire surveillance and hazard mapping Emergency Warning Messages K Reinke, C Engel, S Jones D Greer, P Dootson, S Miller, V Tippett 33 Predicting live fuel moisture 18 Comprehensive School Safety: content using soil moisture A participatory approach to school bushfire P Fox-Hughes, V Kumar, I Dharssi, M Yebra emergency management planning 34 Incorporating firebrands and spot fires into M Henry vorticity-driven wildfire behaviour models 19 Advancing public health in the context J E Hilton, N Garg, J J Sharples of natural hazards: normalising 35 Flammability of live plants, do we preparedness within a framework of need a new testing approach? adapted Protection Motivation Theory A Filkov, T Miller, T Penman R Westcott 36 Physics based simulations of grassfire 20 Nurturing to avoid nature: The influence propagation on sloped terrains; of personality traits and cultural upslopes and down slopes worldview on floodwater driving J Innocent, D Sutherland, N Khan, K Moinuddin S Benjamin, A Lykins, M Parsons 2 Research Posters
37 Recovery strategies of Eucalyptus 54 “Time to find those ‘hidden’ Bininj structures, delegatensis subsp. Tasmaniensis after they are not hidden and EM gotta connect with the 2016 fires in Central Tasmania us!”: A pathway for effective community level D Rodriguez-Cubillo decision-making for emergency response B Sithole, O Campion, R Bununggurr, 38 Characterising smoke emissions from the 2013 C Brian, S Sutton with ARPnet Team Eucalyptus forest fire in Southern Australia M N Ndalila, G J Williamson, D M J S Bowman 55 Scenario Planning for Remote Community Risk Management in northern Australia 39 Effect of spot fires and topography on fire rate J Russell-Smith, K K Sangha, A C Edwards of spread: Combustion tunnel experiments M Storey, O Price, M Almeida, C Ribeiro, 56 Women Caring for Country on the Frontier R Bradstock, J J Sharples K van Wezel 40 Coupling Litter and Soil Moisture Dynamics for Surface Fine Fuel Moisture Content Forecasting-Field Experiment INFRASTRUCTURE AND IMPACT L Zhao, M Yebra, A I J M van Dijk, G Cary 58 Benefit-Cost Analysis of Retrofitting Older 41 Physics-based simulation of firebrand and heat Australian Houses for Windstorms flux on structures in the context of AS3959 K Parackal, M Wehner, H Ryu, J Ginger, A Wickramasinghe, N Khan, K Moinuddin D Henderson, M Edwards 59 Improving flood forecast skill using remote sensing data FUTURE WORKFORCE A Wright, V Pauwels, J Walker, S Grimaldi, Y Li 43 Emergency volunteering 2030: 60 Retrofitting Strategy for Limited Ductile a sector-wide snapshot Reinforced Concrete Buildings in Australia B McLennan R Alazem, E Lumantarna, N Lam, S Menegon 44 Closing the research-practice gap 61 Parametric Study on the Mass of a Free- C Owen, N Krusel, L Bethune Dropped-Hammer on Dynamic Response of a Reinforced Concrete Beam 45 Divergent Thinking and Brain Plasticity M Nasim, S Setunge, T Maqsood B Brooks, S Curnin 62 Fragility analysis of bridges 46 Diversity and inclusion: building subjected to extreme waves strength and capability I Qeshta, M J Hashemi, R Gravina, S Setunge C Young, R Jones, B Rasmussen, N Maharaj, F MacDonald 47 Enabling sustainable emergency volunteering P Dunlop, M Gagné, A Luksyte, D Kragt, MANAGING THE LANDSCAPE D Holtrop, H Muhammad Farid 64 Fuels3D 48 Managing Non-Technical Skills in Teams B Hally, M Robey, S Hillman, L Wallace, C Bearman, P Hayes K Reinke, S Jones, S Ramsey 49 Enabling sustainable emergency volunteering 65 From hectares to tailor-made B McLennan, P Dunlop, J Chong, M Gagné, solutions for prescribed burning D Kragt, H Muhammad Farid, H Clarke, B Cirulis, T Penman, M Griffin, A Luksyte, L Bethune O Price, M Boer, R Bradstock 50 Service use and help-seeking experiences 66 Optimisation of fuel reduction burning of Australian first responders with regimes for carbon, water and vegetation mental health conditions T Bell, M Possell, D Pepper, D Parnell, S Karunaratne, W Rikkers, D Lawrence M Yu, M Gharun, M Neumann, M Adams 51 Teamwork in night fire aviation 67 Suppression Firing Prevalence & Practice C Owen H Simpson, R Bradstock, O Price INDIGENOUS INITIATIVES POLICY, POLITICAL ENGAGEMENT 53 Hazards, Culture and Indigenous Communities AND INFLUENCE J Weir, T Neale, W Smith, E Daly, 69 Implementing disaster resilience policy D Freeman, T McNaught, A Atkinson, in the Australian Federation M Bourke, A Leavesley, A Galpin S Hunt Contents 3
4 Research Posters
Disaster Resilience
Disaster Resilience FINDINGS The Australian Disaster Resilience Index is a snapshot of the capacities for disaster resilience in Australian communities. A dashboard will help communities, governments and industry explore the index and understand the factors that influence disaster resilience around Australia. The Australian Disaster Resilience Three levels of insight. Index Dashboard Melissa Parsons1,2, Johan Boshoff3, Ian Reeve1 1 Institute for Rural Futures, University of New England, Armidale 2 Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, Victoria 3 UNE-CASI (Computation, Analytics, Software, Informatics), University of New England, Armidale Developed by the University of New England and the Bushfire and Natural Dashboard design. Hazards CRC, the Australian Disaster Resilience Index dashboard is free to use and allows anyone with an interest in understanding the resilience of their local community to access this information. The dashboard was released in July 2020. Introduction The Australian Disaster Resilience Index is a snapshot of the capacities for disaster resilience in Australian communities. Understanding these capacities, and how they differ from place to place, will help communities, governments and industry work together to cope with and adapt to natural hazards such as bushfires, floods, storms and earthquakes. Who might use the index? What is disaster resilience and how does the index assess it? Disaster resilience is the capacity to prepare for, absorb and recover from natural hazards, and to learn, adapt and transform in ways that enhance these capacities in the face of future events. Disaster resilience arises from many social, economic and institutional capacities and the mix of these capacities in a community conveys how well it is positioned to absorb and adapt to natural hazards. The dashboard shows how these capacities for disaster resilience are distributed across Australia, and the factors that enhance or constrain disaster resilience in different communities. For more information, please email melissa.parsons@une.edu.au © 2020 Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC bnhcrc.com.au 6 Research Posters
Disaster Resilience OUTPUTS New evidence-based guide to disaster recovery Recovery Capitals (ReCap) Community Capitals Framework Prof Lisa Gibbs1, Prof David Johnston2, Phoebe Quinn1, Dr Denise Blake2, Emily Campbell2, John Richardson3 1 Universityof Melbourne, Victoria 2 Massey University, Wellington 3 Australian Red Cross The Recovery Capitals (ReCap) project applies a Community Capitals lens to disaster recovery to increase understanding about the interacting influences of social, built, financial, political, human, cultural and natural capital on people’s wellbeing. Through end user- oriented action-research, ReCap provides evidence-based guidance through the production of a range of resources in different formats that suit different needs and cultural perspectives. Figure 1: ReCap model adapted from the Introduction resources have been designed based on Community Capitals Framework1 the needs and perspectives expressed by Disaster recovery processes are highly the end-users of this project. complex, presenting challenges in how to achieve holistic and inclusive approaches when working with people and Outputs communities. ReCap aims to produce ReCap is producing a series of resources resources to help address these challenges. that will be in different formats to suit Guide to Post-Disaster Recovery Capitals It is a collaboration between researchers, different needs, with versions tailored to government and non-government both Australia and Aotearoa New Zealand. agencies, and end-users from Australia and The pilot Australian edition of the first of Aotearoa New Zealand. these – the ‘Guide to Recovery Capitals’ (Fig. 2) – was released in July 2020 and can Methods be found at https://www.redcross.org.au/recap. The first step in the project was to develop a framework to guide our approach to reviewing relevant evidence and Next steps developing recovery resources. The The ReCap project is still in progress. The Community Capitals Framework1 was taken ‘Guide to Post-Disaster Recovery Capitals’ as the starting point for the ReCap is being adapted into an Aotearoa New framework. Drawing on the practice Zealand edition, and both versions are expertise of end-users and additional being distributed to end-users who will pilot academic knowledge, this was developed it and provide feedback about feasibility, into multidimensional approach to disaster appropriateness and usefulness. The recovery that considers people, development of the complete set of Figure 2: Cover image of the first resource geographies and temporality, while resources continues. produced through the ReCap project interweaving issues of access, equity, and diversity (Fig. 1). Detailed evidence mapping against the ReCap framework was undertaken using previous research conducted by the For more information, please email academic teams and collaborators. 1Flora, C., Flora, J., & Fey, S. (2004). Rural Communities: phoebeq@unimelb.edu.au Legacy and Change (2nd ed.). Boulder, CO: Westview Key findings and considerations arising from the evidence were then distilled, and Press. © 2020 Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC bnhcrc.com.au Disaster Resilience 7
Disaster Resilience FINDINGS Building capacity to prepare: A generative model of community engagement for preparedness Mapping community engagement for preparedness in Australia Kim A Johnston1,2, Barbara Ryan 1,3, Maureen Taylor 1,4, 1 Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, Victoria 2 Queensland University of Technology 3 University of Southern Queensland 4 University of Technology Sydney Community preparation for disaster response has been empirically established as a key factor in mitigating risk associated with disasters. Although community engagement is used widely to support communities to build capacity to prepare, approaches to engaging a community have varied widely, with few frameworks empirically built or evaluated for effectiveness. This qualitative study of 30 emergency management agencies and practitioners, and thematic analysis of agency policy documents, investigated current approaches to community engagement to develop a model to help communities mitigate risk. Drawing together key concepts from natural hazard behaviour research, community development, participatory design and codesign, a five step Generative Model of Community Engagement for Preparedness is proposed, based on relationships, networks and shared meaning. The model has both theoretical and practical value for community engagement for risk personalisation and protective action because it not only helps communities prepare for emergencies but also helps build Figure1: Generative model of community engagement for preparedness relationships across communities that create social capital for recovery and during nonemergency periods. Introduction Results Community preparation in disaster response has been empirically established as a key factor in the protection of life during a disaster (Coles et al, 2018; Attributes of a best practice approach to CE for preparedness include: Gibbs et al., 2015). Risk management plans identify a clear role for Awareness and understanding of risk, recognition of self-responsibility, and collaborative engagement with local communities (Heath & Lee, 2016) the notion that preparation within a community is widely held as desirable Community engagement (CE) enhances social outcomes through and valued. Attributes of a CE for preparedness program should feature community decision making (Johnston et al, 2018) however, little is known • Community led about what makes a CE program for preparedness effective, and what are • Co-design and community development the attributes of a best practice approach to CE for preparedness. This study • A relational approach addresses this gap and establishes a framework for CE best practice. • Recognises the importance of community networks Methods The model – titled the Generative Model Of Community Engagement For A two-stage qualitative research design featuring 1) semi-structured Preparedness, (Figure 1) reflects and represents a synthesis from current interviews (N=30) and 2) document analysis, was undertaken between Oct Australian CE for preparedness practice (interview data and document 2018 to Jan 2019. Empirical and grey literature was used to build an interview analysis) and responds to the principles of practice that prefaced successful guide. Data were thematically analysed and coding into core topics CE. The model details aims of each step, with an accompanying toolkit of (Glaser, 1992) while the second analytical stage applied an inductive tactics and monitoring/evaluation tools aligned to each step. analysis. Discussion The findings of this study support a high-level commitment by emergency agencies to engaging with the community in order to save lives and property For more information, please scan the QR code for project through risk identification and action. The model brings together the core documents and publications or email the researchers: features and benefits of a common understanding, language and practices used for CE for preparedness in Australia and around the world. There are kim.johnston@qut..edu.au four key theoretical and practical implications of the findings of this study for Barbara.ryan@usq.edu.au CE for preparedness, including systematising sharing of knowledge, the maureen.taylor-1@uts.edu.au importance of localised approaches, the challenge of shared responsibility, and systematising evaluation. © 2020 Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC bnhcrc.com.au 8 Research Posters
Economics, Mitigation and Value
Economics, Mitigation and Value UNHARMED A flexible approach to understanding and planning risk reduction for different hazards and from different perspectives Improved decision support for natural hazard risk reduction Graeme A. Riddell1,3, Hedwig van Delden2,3, Holger R. Maier1,3, Roel Vanhout2, Aaron C. Zecchin1,3, Graeme C. Dandy1,3. Gawler River UNHaRMED Mitigation Planning - GRUMP 1 School of Civil, Environmental & Mining Engineering, The University of Adelaide, South Australia, Australia 2 Research Working with the Gawler River Floodplain Management Authority, its 6 constituent councils and the Institute for Knowledge Systems, Maastricht, the Netherlands Department for Environment & Water’s Fire and Flood team we have been assessing structural and 3 Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, Victoria, Australia non-structural risk reduction options against different scenarios of economic and population development in the floodplain. The project has developed a tool for pro-active disaster risk assessment and reduction The results are to be used to build the business case for investment in improved flood defences and planning – UNHaRMED. It is based on two driving principles: to develop a more strategic, long-term approach to understanding and reducing flood risk in a 1. Prevention is better than cure – “It’s better to build a fence at the top of a cliff, than key development area to the north of Adelaide. Risk assessment has included assessing the direct damage to buildings, roads, and agriculture, along with indirect impacts due to service disruption park an ambulance at the bottom.” Helen Clark. Challenges: where to build it, how following flood events. Below are results for damages per return period and expected annual high, how much does it cost…? damage (EAD) plotted spatially and against time. EAD 2018 - Baseline 2. Tomorrow’s risk is being built today. We must therefore move away from risk Implementing a floodway in the circled area reduces the assessments that show risk at a single, present point, and move instead towards risk 1in50 year damage from assessments that can guide decision makers towards a resilient future. GFDRR (2016) 1in500 $98million to $73million and 2060 2040 2018 the expected annual damage (EAD) from $7.3million to $6.4million The software is designed to 1in200 explore risk into the future, modelling hazard, exposure 1in100 and vulnerability to provide EAD 2018: $7.3 million decision-relevant risk metrics. It 1in50 EAD 2018 - Floodway EAD 2040: $7.9 million Maps of is designed with the inputs from EAD per over 50 organisations across 1in20 EAD 2060: $9.2 million hectare Australia. across the - 100 200 300 400 500 600 floodplain The following highlights some of Damage (AUD 2018) Millions the applications of UNHaRMED Baseline scenario of changing risk due to economic in the last year. and population growth in the floodplain. UNHaRMED User Interface showing hazard and exposure maps and All results shown are indicative. vulnerability functions. Exercise ForeThought: State Strategic Mitigation Exercise – Coastal Flooding & Climate change and bushfire risk - Victoria Climate Change Working the Bureau of Meteorology we explored the impact of climate change on A two-day exercise was run with stakeholders from across State, and Local Governments, along with private sector extreme fire weather to better understand potential impacts into the future. Using the representatives and NGOs to better understand and plan for sea-level-rise (SLR) and coastal flooding in Port Adelaide. BARRA reanalysis dataset we looked at the difference in fire behaviour on the 95th percentile weather between 1990-1995 and 2010-2019. This was to better understand the The discussion exercise was designed to better plan mitigation activities by taking a multi-agency perspective and change that has already happened. These are plotted below. exploring different scenarios of SLR, population growth and risk reduction actions. UNHaRMED was used to model these different scenarios and help stakeholders visualise, understand and quantify the 1990-1999 We also considered the difference in losses to trade-offs between different actions. The first day provided a foundation for the group of 50 participants to understand buildings between these two scenarios. how the risk was changing before day 2 demonstrated the costs and benefits of different mitigation actions. This assessment was also used as the basis for understanding and modelling future climate As the project sponsor, SAFECOM is pleased to have had projections, not shown here. These results have participants from across State and Local Government, critical fed into several assessments for a range of infrastructure providers and NGOs contributing real-life input into organisations. the practical application of the UNHaRMED tool in the Port Adelaide coastal flooding scenario. This collaboration facilitated complex discussions that highlighted 2010-2019 the need for interconnected planning across agencies and sectors to achieve effective mitigation that also take into account the social acceptability of proposed solutions. Participants agreed that the flexibility of the UNHaRMED tool allows it to be easily applied to different hazards and geographic areas, limited only by the availability of access to appropriate data. Brenton Keen, Director Emergency Management Office, Difference in losses from 95th percentile event SAFECOM. Fire behavior from 95th percentile weather between 1990-1999 and 2010 - 2019 We would like to thank the many organisations and individuals we have worked with in both developing and applying UNHaRMED. This work would not have been possible without their contributions. For more information, please email holger.maier@adelaide.edu.au © 2020 Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC bnhcrc.com.au 10 Research Posters
Economics, Mitigation and Value ECONOMICS 101 FOR THE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT SECTOR A free online course on the economics of natural hazards to help practitioners become enthusiastic and effective utilisers of economic analysis. The Economics of Natural Hazards Selected images Veronique Florec1,2, Abbie Rogers1,2, Atakelty Hailu1,2 and David Pannell1,2 1 Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, Victoria 2 The University of Western Australia, Western Australia This free online course on the economics of natural hazards will help natural hazard managers build their skills and understanding in the core economics concepts and models that are relevant to natural hazards management. Rationale Potential outcomes Emergency management agencies do These are some of the potential not necessarily collect their data with outcomes for participants and the strategic economic analyses in mind. sector as a whole: Above: Economic concepts are explained in simple terms in Because of this, there can be • Improved ability for natural hazard the videos. inconsistencies and holes that make managers and decision makers to the carrying out of economic analyses frame decision-making problems difficult. There is a need for a shift in appropriately, choose the thinking among agencies collecting appropriate economic tools to data, to ensure that the data are useful define and compare options and for economic analyses and source and utilise relevant data. management decisions. In addition, • Improved ability for researchers and economic analysis of natural hazards students to choose the best tools can be complex, and there is a lack of and approaches for economic economics capacity in the sector. analyses of natural hazards and their management. Aims • Increased economic capacity within the emergency management The information presented in the course sector. will allow natural hazard managers to • Improved data collection and more become enthusiastic and effective data available useful for conducting utilisers of economic analysis, be able economic analyses. to interpret and use the results of economic analysis appropriately, understand the importance and For more information, please email challenges associated with intangible veronique.florec@uwa.edu.au values, and understand more broadly Above: Hand-made graphs and drawings help explain the the data requirements for particular concepts presented in an engaging and entertaining way. types of economic analyses. © 2020 Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC bnhcrc.com.au Economics, Mitigation and Value 11
Economics, Mitigation and Value FINDINGS Small business owners in the Burnett River catchment area suffered income losses of $21,005 following Cyclone Oswald 2013. Figures Disasters and Economic Resilience: The income effects of Cyclone Oswald on Small Business Owners – a case study on the Burnett River Catchment Area Mehmet Ulubasoglu1,2 1 Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, Victoria 2 Deakin University, Victoria Introduction From 22 to 29 January 2013, Category 1 ex- Discussion tropical Cyclone Oswald, depicted in Figure 1, While the estimated income losses appear to be Figure 1: Cyclone Oswald Path moved across parts of Queensland and New large, they are plausible considering the wide- South Wales, causing severe storms, flooding and scale devastation to important infrastructure tornadoes with most of the devastation felt in the (including ports and water treatment facilities), Bundaberg and North Burnett regions. The that agricultural small businesses are heavily flooding events associated with Cyclone Oswald represented in these areas, and that agricultural that occurred in this region present a unique losses alone in North Burnett and Bundaberg opportunity to causally investigate the impacts of were estimated at $265 million (Queensland a major disaster on small businesses in a regional Government, 2018a). community with an important agricultural base. As 98% of Australian businesses are small These would have had knock-on effects on other businesses, this study provides a layer to dissect sectors in the region. They are also consistent with disaster resilience and recovery on an important the low capacity for disaster resilience of the section of the community and workforce. Burnett River catchment area, as assessed by the CRC’s ANDRI project. Method This finding supports a key insight from our Using the ABS Census Longitudinal Dataset (2006, Queensland Floods 2010-11 report (Ulubasoglu 2011, 2016) and the ‘difference-in-differences and Beaini, 2020), in which we identified three methodology, the research explores the income possible channels through which disaster- effects of Cyclone Oswald on small business induced economic shocks can be transmitted to owners residing in the four Burnett River individuals, vis-à-vis income. These are: owning a Catchment local government areas (LGAs) business, working in sectors whose economic depicted in Figure 2. In particular, we estimate activity is susceptible to disaster shocks (both the income changes of small business owners in positive and negative), and working part-time. Burnett River Catchment Area (treatment group) between 2001 and 2016, compared to small Our research findings also illustrate the difficulty in business owners in a control group who are fully mitigating economic losses in regional Figure 2: Burnett River Catchment Area LGAs and closely matched on a range of characteristics communities in Australia, particularly where Richmond River Catchment Area LGAs including income, education, marital status, age, economic activity is concentrated in – and and their mover/nonmover status over time. The centred around – disaster sensitive industries like Richmond River catchment area LGAs (NSW) are agriculture or tourism. For the Wide Bay-Burnett chosen as control group as they closely resemble region, these difficulties will only be exacerbated the treatment group (Figure 2). by the projected population growth and climate change, which is expected to increase extreme weather events and the risk of further inundations Result in communities like Bundaberg. Small business owners in our treatment LGAs suffered 45.3% income losses between 2011 and 2016, which corresponds to $21,005, compared For more information, please email to what they would have earnt had the cyclone mehmet.ulubasoglu@deakin.edu.au events not happened. © 2020 Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC bnhcrc.com.au 12 Research Posters
Economics, Mitigation and Value FINDINGS Appropriate management of disaster risk in a dynamic urban context requires performance criteria to be explicit in considering both direct and indirect impacts generated by the interdependent elements of urban system to which these criteria apply. Urban Form and Disaster Risk Reduction: Developing Performance Criteria for Urban Areas Exposed to Flooding Saimum Kabir1, Professor Alan March1,2, Dr. Kathryn Davidson1, Dr. Leonardo Nogueira de Moraes1,2 1 The University of Melbourne, Victoria Services and amenities 2 Bushfire The uninterrupted access to and Natural Hazards CRC, Victoria community services can positively influence the recovery process Australia’s national policies have advocated a flexible performance-based approach to planning for disaster resilience. The Victoria Planning Provisions warrant (v) performance-based planning mainly by Overlay controls. In an existing urbanized area, Flood Overlays come as a development-control measure, but they have no or limited implication on land use, land subdivision, dwelling density, distribution of open space etc. which have significant connection with risk avoidance and recovery process. In addition, Overlays are ineffective in reducing indirect impact of flooding. It also lacks Open spaces performance criteria to assess urban form’s capacity to mitigate the flood risk. Green open spaces can contribute to flood regulation through increased soil permeability and allow room for excess water to move Introduction Discussion (iv) Although existing spatial and urban resilience approaches The alliance between urban morphological elements and have dealt with urban form indirectly, and, conversely, disaster risk reduction are discussed below: some studies in urban morphology have tried to grasp the • The association between density and DRR is complexity of urban-natural environments, an explicit controversial. High-density development within a pre- morphological perspective on disaster risk reduction (DRR) existing vulnerable location may expose more people is still lacking in academic research[1]. This study seeks to and property to flood hazards, increasing disaster risk. address this gap by identifying performance criteria at the Conversely, when coupled with land use diversity, high Streets morphological scale based on the substantive evidence of net density offers more room for avoidance of sensitive Well-connected built environments associations between urban form variables (Density, Street, areas and can influence attributes such as social provide alternative options, creating Land use, Plot, Building, Open space) and DRR (response, capital and place attachment which facilitates redundancy of links that allow the city recovery and mitigation). It is argued here that, an urban recovery. to remain connected and minimise morphological approach provides an appropriate mobility disruption framework for examining urban form’s performance in • Street patterns, permeability and drainage feature disaster risk reduction. were identified as associated with disaster response (iii) and recovery both at the macro and micro scales. At Methods the macro scale, gridded networks, with small blocks, This study has been undertaken as a systematic literature are found more desirable for improving emergency review. The research question addressed by this study is: service accessibility and for facilitating rapid What particular role can urban form play in disaster risk evacuation, while at the micro scale, the incorporation reduction? Thompson Reuters Web of Science and Google of various street design features such as vegetated Scholar bibliographic databases were used to identify the swales, wayfinding systems, and a network of small and literature on urban form and environmental performance; medium assembly areas may enhance the ability of Plots urban form and disaster risk recovery, response and rapid recovery. Plot density (subdivision) represents the mitigation. When combined, the dataset included number of people, goods and • Open spaces have the potential to act as an agent of infrastructure exposed and subjected publications (articles, book chapters, conference recovery, to provide essential life support, as a primary to risk proceedings, reports) from a variety of disciplines place for rescue and shelters; and a mode for (Engineering, Urban Planning, Environmental Study, mitigation. Geoscience Study, Disaster Science, etc.). The studies were (ii) then reviewed to determine if they actually covered the • Various aspects of plot(subdivision, impervious intended search. They were excluded if the studies (a) coverage) and building (form, footprint, setback, roof failed to address the research question and (b) were not type, material and technology) have bearing on based on empirical data. disaster risk reduction. Studies also showed that urban wide transformations in this micro scale aspects can Results have positive effects on the macro scale. There are substantial indications that urban form has In reducing disaster risks, various urban form measures may bearing on disaster risk reduction. Fig1 (i)-(v), show the reinforce or conflict with one another. Different trade-offs Buildings implication of various urban form variables on flood risk may occur due to conflicts in purposes and priorities, and The overall spread of built-up areas assessment. However, in several cases evidence on the varying requirements depending on the type of disaster across the landscape, in the form of relationship between urban form elements is contentious, impervious surfaces, can lead to flood and the stage of risk management. Trade-offs may also losses. ambiguous and even contradictory. This contradiction occur within spatial scales. Any intervention in urban form seems to lay on contextual variations, and the selection of should be pursued in an integrated manner in order to control variables during analysis. Inconsistency is also maximize synergies and minimize trade-offs between (i) observed in consideration of multi-scalar implications of potentially competing strategies for risk reduction and urban form on disaster risk reduction. urban development. 1. Forgaci, C. and Van Timmeren, A., 2014. Urban form and fitness: Towards a space-morphological approach to general urban resilience. In ISDRC 2014: 20th Annual International Sustainable Development Research Conference" Figure1: Implication of Urban form on flood risk assessment Resilience–The New Research Frontier", Trondheim, Norway, 18-20 June. © 2020 Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC bnhcrc.com.au Economics, Mitigation and Value 13
Economics, Mitigation and Value FINDINGS A pragmatic approach to valuing research on disaster risk reduction The Value of BNHCRC Research John Handmer1,2,3, Adriana Keating1,2,3, Ken Strahan1,4 1 Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, Victoria 2 The Risk Laboratory 3 RMIT University 4 Strahan Research Funders of research on fire and emergency management increasingly want Figure 1 to ensure that research dollars will generate value for the emergency management sector and contribute to risk reduction. Researchers are often asked to justify their funding requests as well as their expenditure. This paper sets out two approaches developed to value the disaster risk management research funded by the BNHCRC. Introduction Discussion The key objective of this work is to estimate values Conventionally, research value for emergency of research for communicating with: a) Treasury, management related research in Australia has where economic impacts across society in the been conceptualised in terms of value for form of e.g. benefit-cost ratio, cost effectiveness, specific fire and emergency service agencies, or or return on investment are important; b) agency in some cases for the whole formal fire and funders, who are interested in financial impact for emergency management sector. We have their agencies and focus on the return on their broadened the potential worth by considering a contribution; and c) dedicated research funding variety of pathways to value. These were drawn organisations who want to understand and from the relevant literature on the value of public promote the value of the research they fund, for research. They expand the potential value of Australian society broadly. research and highlight the range of strategic areas that publicly funded research enhances. Methods 1. The first approach values each of the four There is no specific framework for assessing the identified pathways using methods that are value of research in the wildfire – or more easily reproduced and compatible with the available data. generally the disasters – context. However, we have identified a number of pathways for 2. The second approach identifies CRC project BNHCRC research to have positive impact and impacts by pathways, and then rates each therefore value. Drawing on the models impact using a dimensionless ratio scale. reviewed (Strahan et al 2020), and applying a Drawing on the case studies, a sample of broad view of public value, we have identified impacts will be valued in dollar terms and this four main pathways to value for hazards related will allow the monetisation of all impacts. research: Some factors, such as the estimated effect of • Project level impacts – mostly direct impacts CRC research on loss reduction and discount on agency policy or practice; rates, are likely to have major impacts on the final • Training and capacity building; value and these should be tested for sensitivity. • Knowledge generation; • Broader social and economic impacts. We have taken two approaches to estimating monetized value. Approach one is to estimate For more information, please email Figure1: Steps in assessing the dollar value of BNHCRC research the total value of each pathway; approach two john.handmer@rmit.edu.au is to ascribe value for each of the four pathways by individual BNHCRC projects. Strahan, K, Keating, A, Handmer, J (2020) “Models and frameworks for assessing the value of disaster research” Progress in Disaster Science https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pdisas.2020.100094 © 2020 Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC bnhcrc.com.au 14 Research Posters
Education and Communications
Education and Communications FINDINGS More than 90% of people who drive through floodwater experience no adverse consequences Flood Risk Communication Mel Taylor1,2, Matalena Tofa1,2, Katharine Haynes1,3 1 Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, Victoria 2 Macquarie University, New South Wales 3 University of Wollongong, New South Wales This project focused on gaining a better understanding of people’s behaviour in and around floodwater. Specifically, the two behaviours associated with the greatest number of fatalities in Australia; driving into floodwater and recreating in floodwater. Findings from this research are being used to identify and quantify challenges for flood Examples of public flood campaigns aimed at preventing risk communication and develop guidelines for those communicating people driving into floodwater with the public. Introduction Results • 40% reported they could recall an official campaign aimed Flooding is a significant cause of death, accounting A total of 2184 people were surveyed. Some key at preventing people driving or playing in floodwater. for the second highest number of fatalities due to findings are listed below. • 26% of respondents had entered floodwater on • 6.4% recalled the message ‘if it’s flooded forget it’ natural hazards in Australia after heatwaves. Our research investigating vehicle-related flood land fatalities in Australia found that at least 96 people • 19% had engaged in activities in flooded rivers died in incidents between 2001and 2017, with older • 55% had driven (or been driven) through males (aged 50–59 and 70–79) being the highest- floodwater in the last 5 years risk group. • 40% reported they could recall an official flood campaign This 3-year research project comprised several • 6.4% could recall the core ‘if it’s flooded, forget studies. These included investigation of factors it’ message. associated with driving into floodwater with the general public and State Emergency Services (SES), Of those who drove through floodwater: interviews to understand how experts and lay • 61% drove through water estimated to be 15- public differ in their conceptualisation of flood and 45cm deep flood risk, consolidation and exploration of vehicle- • 91% drove through with no adverse related flood fatality data, and evaluation of public consequences flood risk communication and the public’s recall of • 0.7% needed rescuing by emergency services flood campaigns and messages. In addition, Public recall of flood campaigns: national survey (n=2109) experimental research has been undertaken to develop and validate a tool to assess expertise in Discussion the risk assessment of floodwater. Our study findings have many implications for flood risk communication. The fact that more than half Stakeholder summaries of these studies are the public drive through floodwater and 90% incur available in a series of Research into Practice Briefs. no adverse consequences means that flood communication asserting risks and danger will Methods not align with lived experience and is likely to be This poster presents keys findings from just one rejected. research study - an online public survey of driving Recall of flood risk messaging is generally poor, and recreating in floodwater. Data were collected although better in some states where both the risks from a proportionally representative sample of the can be greater (due to remoteness and lack of adult Australian population, balanced by state and alternative routes) and campaigns have been gender. strongly promoted in recent times. The survey investigated experiences of driving into, and entering, floodwater. This included collecting For more information, please email details of a specific recent incident of driving into mel.taylor@mq.edu.au Research into Practice Briefs – generated from research activities floodwater. The survey also investigated recall of Outputs from this project are available at flood risk campaigns and messaging. https://www.bnhcrc.com.au/research/floodrisk communication © 2020 Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC bnhcrc.com.au 16 Research Posters
Education and Communications FINDINGS Red headers on bushfire evacuation messages help encourage community members to follow emergency instructions Adding Colour and Icons to Emergency Warning Messages Associate Professor Dominique Greer1, Dr Paula Dootson1, Dr Sophie Miller1 & Professor Vivienne Tippett2 1 QUT Business School, QUT, Queensland 2 School of Clinical Sciences, Faculty of Health, QUT, Queensland Current Australian emergency warning messages that have been refined to match evidence-based practice already encourage community members’ readiness to act on emergency instructions. What happens when we add colour and/or icons to emergency warning messages? Introduction Results Since 2014, emergency service agencies across Adding colours and/or icons to the Evacuate Australia have adopted a range of evidence- Now (Bushfire) message creates small based practice when constructing emergency improvements: warning messages. • Adding a red header to the message As the written elements of warning messages are improved the comprehensibility and working well to encourage readiness to act effectiveness of the message Figure 1. Mock emergency warning (1 of 16) (Greer et al., 2019), this research examines the effect of adding colour and/or icons to official • The event described in the message is warning messages. considered more likely when either a coloured Prepare to evacuate icon or no colour/icon is used. This research complements the increasing Fire Flood industry interest in developing a National Multi- • Adding a red header to the message Hazard Warning System that can promote clear improved how confident participants felt in understanding of warnings and appropriate their ability to complete the action. protective action across Australian jurisdictions. While these improvements are small from a Methods statistical standpoint, the effect small changes can have at a population level are likely A total of 2,482 Australians across all impactful, especially when message states/territories participated in a survey. improvements can save lives, properties and Evacuate now reduce harm. Participants first read one of 16 mock emergency Fire Flood warnings (see Figure 1) about either a bushfire or The other three messages showed no a riverine flood that were variously presented improvement (or loss) in message without icons, with icons, in greyscale and colour comprehension, effectiveness, threat appraisal, (see Figure 2). or coping appraisal as a result of adding colours and/or icons. Colours and/or icons might be Participants then answered a series of questions useful, however, to aid the interpretation of less about their demographic characteristics, well-worded emergency warning messages if message comprehension and effectiveness, they reduce uncertainty. threat appraisal and coping appraisal. Figure2: Example icons in colour and greyscale Data were analysed using two-way between- groups ANOVA. For more information, please email dominique.greer@qut.edu.au © 2020 Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC bnhcrc.com.au Education and Communications 17
Education and Communications Comprehensive School Safety: A participatory approach to school bushfire emergency management planning. Matthew Henry Central Queensland University, School of Human Health and Social Sciences, QLD Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, VIC Supervisors : Professor Ken Purnell & Dr. Briony Towers A participatory approach to school bushfire emergency management planning. Although schools have an emergency management plan for bushfire to keep students, staff and the broader school community safe, are these plans effective during a bushfire event? This research will examine the degree of involvement of the principal, students, staff, parents and community stakeholders in school bushfire planning, how concerned each group are about bushfire risk and whether the school community believe they could be more involved in school bushfire planning. The project will use a participatory action research (PAR) methodology to work collaboratively with the school principal, teachers, students, parents and members of the school community to investigate effective participatory approaches to school bushfire planning. The UN-level Comprehensive School Safety (CSS) framework (UNESCO/UNICEF, 2014) provides a detailed and coordinated approach to reducing all hazard risks to the education sector. The CSS provides a guiding framework that can be customised to the Victorian school setting to facilitate the development of a participatory approach to school bushfire emergency management planning. Research questions 1.Are current school bushfire emergency management planning policies and practices sufficient to be effective during a bushfire event? 2. Does the development of a participatory approach to school bushfire emergency management planning have the capacity to improve planning effectiveness? Research Aims 1.Examine current school policies and practice related to school bushfire emergency management planning. 2.Investigate opportunities for the implementation of a participatory approach to effective school bushfire emergency management planning. • (Source, GADRRRES, 2014) The research will involve: • A Participatory Capacity and Vulnerability Analysis (PCVA) Focus group interviews with students • Transect walk with students/school staff • Risk and resource hazard mapping exercises • Semi structured interviews with the school principal teaching staff, parents/carers, community stakeholders A participatory approach to school bushfire emergency management planning, and the adoption of a school safety framework specifically designed for the Victorian school setting, has the potential to enable school communities to better prepare for, mitigate, respond to and recover from the impacts of bushfire. © 2020 Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC bnhcrc.com.au 18 Research Posters
Education and Communications FINDINGS Easily achievable fire-fitness strategies normalise preparedness to become a routine part of daily life, narrowing the awareness-action gap. Advancing public health in the context of natural hazards: normalising preparedness within a framework of adapted Protection Figures Motivation Theory. Rachel Westcott1,2 1 Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, Victoria 2 Engine Room Solutions Pty Ltd, South Australia This project proposes public health policy and processes to assist people to negotiate natural hazards in an increasingly hostile, climate change induced environment. This is achieved by normalising preparedness – to make “fire-fitness” routine and everyday. With data gathered from a diverse regional community in South Australia this predominantly qualitative research adapted Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) and used Thematic Analysis (TA) to identify strategies which favour beneficial outcomes for individuals, communities and their immediate social microclimates. Locally bespoke and societal-wide applications are recommended to help narrow the awareness- action gap, promote public safety and well-being and identify topics requiring further research. Introduction Proposed categories are: v A new type of workplace leave: Catastrophic The awareness-preparedness gap – i.e. the mismatch Day/Extreme Fire Weather Leave between people’s awareness and readiness to v Financial incentives manage a hazard threat and treat risk - is widely v Effective use of the social microclimate - acknowledged as persistently too large. While the synchronous, synergistic delivery of information magnitude of the gap remains, human morbidity v Acknowledging and rewarding best practice fire- and mortality in bushfire (and other) natural hazards fitness will not be significantly reduced; people will continue v Adaptive rewards – that an action is gainful - and to make poor decisions, thereby perpetuating the dynamic risk assessment Figure 1: Research rationale – broad summary of key cycle of negative outcomes and ramifications v Cropland fires: use of firebreaks, crop types and elements. The word “human” is used wholistically. emergency responders routinely encounter. crop placement and planting around assets Adverse environmental and animal impacts which Previous studies have contributed to addressing this Each of these strategies contributes to cultivating a inevitably affect humans are assumed inclusions. problem, but none have identified the need to culture of preparedness over the short, medium and establish a preceding culture of normalised long terms. Importantly, a fire-fitness program for any preparedness, which this author has named “fire- given group must be locally relevant and bespoke. fitness” (trademark pending). Future use of this research Methods The recommendations from this research are readily Data collection took place in a bushfire at-risk achievable and need only some visionary advocacy regional area in South Australia from June to August to instigate and trial. None require regulatory or 2015. Two demographically diverse groups - animal legislative action to implement. These strategies are owners and Emergency responders participated in not intended to replace preparedness campaigns. eight focus groups (n=72) and 32 individual Rather, they are designed to change the interviews. A pilot survey (n=37) of livestock and preparedness environment by establishing a cropland primary producers completed the data preceding culture of fire-fitness as a routine social collection phase. norm – to develop a prescient suite of lifestyle adaptations to confront and manage the ‘new Results and Discussion reality’ of extreme weather events. Findings were grouped into six main categories of strategies and proactive, potentially life-saving It is important to note that while these strategies are public health and safety policies with each aiming to able to be adopted and implemented quickly, they make preparedness as routine as buying the will optimally promote and achieve medium to groceries or fuelling a car. longer term changes in the public’s level of Figure 2: A new type of workplace leave, financial improved fire-fitness, and in the perception among incentives and synchronicity in the social the wider population of the need to adapt to a microclimate are some fire-fitness strategies to worsening natural hazard environment. normalise preparedness. For more information, please email: The complete project can be accessed at: rachel@engineroomsolutions.com.au https://researchdirect.westernsydney.edu.au/islando ra/object/uws%3A49051 © 2020 Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC bnhcrc.com.au Education and Communications 19
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