DEUX PAYS, UNE MER - LICCO LICCO
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LiCCo LiCCo Two Countries, Deux One Sea pays, une mer A cross-channel perspective on climate change and the coast
Contents 3 Executive Summary 61 Findings 6 Introduction 65 References 7 1. Transnational overview 67 Annex A The coastal management 7 1.1 UK – Climate change and the regulations in force in France coast 11 1.2 France – climate change and 68 Annex B the coast Are the British and French climate change prediction models 16 1.3 UK – coastal risk comparable? management 22 1.4 France – coastal risk 69 Annex C management Trend scenarios for Lower Normandy 25 2. Study sites within the 69 Coastline and estuaries LiCCo project 70 Natural and rural spaces 27 2.1. Site specific climate impacts on the Exe Estuary, UK 72 Urban areas 37 2.2 The impact of climate change and 73 Natural risks sea level rise on Poole Harbour 74 Coastline and estuaries and Swanage, UK 75 Natural and rural areas 47 2.3 France – the sensitivity of Normandy to climate 77 Urban areas hazards 78 Annex D 56 2.4 Community engagement in Site specific challenges and coastal change opportunities 58 2.5 Lifelong learning about coastal change 2 LiCCo Two Countries, One Sea
Executive Summary This report provides a cross-channel perspective on climate change, and in particular how it affects the coastal areas of both the South West of England and Normandy in France. It sets the context for coastal management in both countries and possibilities for partnership working across the Channel. This report thereby promotes the sharing of relevant information amongst project partners and others interested in coastal change in England and France. The aim is that this report will be revised at a later stage in the LiCCo project, to include policy and sector specific recommendations, for wide dissemination. This report has two main sections: Section 1: Provides a transnational overview, which compares and contrasts crosscutting issues, which affect both countries. This includes predicted climate change impacts, climate change adaptation and the policy context for coastal management. It highlights the main differences and similarities that exist. Section 2: Compares and contrasts the individual study sites included within the Living with a Changing Coast (LiCCo) project. This looks at the environmental, social and economic characteristics of all the study sites and how these might be affected by future climate change impacts, such as sea level rise, coastal erosion, changes in temperature and changes in rainfall. This section also looks at the public engagement activities and learning opportunities regarding coastal change that exist in the study sites. 3 LiCCo Two Countries, One Sea
i Overview Harbour are covered by different SMPs.4 The high level policies of the SMPs are investigated in more detail i.i Climate change predictions for implementation by Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management Strategies.5 These are more local in scale and Climate projections for both countries suggest that the South are being developed in both Poole Harbour and the Exe West of England and Normandy will experience: Estuary by the Environment Agency, in partnership with local • an increase in future temperature, authorities, Natural England and other key stakeholders. • more frequent and intense extreme weather events, including storms, heavy rainfall, floods, droughts and heat In France there is currently no equivalent to the UK SMPs; the waves, and management of the coast in France is governed at the present • a sea level rise of approximately 2-3mm/year. time by a large number of legislative texts or regulations. However, a report was published in 2012 by French MP Alain i.ii Policy context: climate change – mitigation Cousin (‘Propositions for a national strategy for the coastline, and adaptation managed realignment and coastal defence, shared between the state and the regional authorities’),6 which will form the In the UK the Climate Change Act 2008 sets out a legally basis for the national strategy for shoreline management. As binding framework to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to in England, over the last few decades coastal management 80% of 1990 levels by 2050. In France the ‘loi POPE 2005 has become more holistic, with an increased focus on forward (programme determining energy policy decisions)’ and the planning and working with the natural environment. ‘loi Grenelle 1’ have fixed the national objective to reduce GHG emissions by a quarter by 2050.1 In France the local i.iv LiCCo site specific issues Climate and Energy Plans (PCET) are agreed by a range of communities and stakeholders and aim to reduce greenhouse Both the Exe Estuary and Poole Harbour, have a number of gas emissions to 25% of 1990 levels by 2050, as well as towns, villages and tourist sites that are at risk from fluvial reducing energy dependency and vulnerability to climate or tidal flooding, or both. Combined with a rising sea level change. and increasingly stormy weather, many communities will also face increased coastal erosion. There is also increasing The UK Government must report every five years on the risks population and development pressure within the tidal to the UK from climate change via the Climate Change Risk floodplain at both sites. There are areas of international Assessment (2012) and the National Adaptation Programme nature conservation importance within study sites on both (2013). Public bodies and Government departments must sides of the channel; with wildlife and habitats most likely carry out their own risk assessments and set out plans to to be impacted by climate change, sea level rise and in some address the identified risks. The Environment Agency leads places, development pressure. on the new National ‘Climate Ready Support Service’, incorporating climate risk management into business decision Upper Normandy is culturally relatively disconnected to its making. shoreline, with the exception of the two large maritime ports, Le Havre and Rouen, however the population and land in the In France, a national adaptation plan for climate change from lower valleys is particularly vulnerable to the risks associated 2011-2015 has been adopted (PNAC).2 On a regional level, with climate change. In Lower Normandy the coast is used the ‘climate, air, energy’ plan (SRCAE) defines the strategic more extensively e.g. for fishing and aquaculture; recreational regional objectives and provides guidelines to achieve these activities and tourism; and grazing of coastal saltmarshes and up to 2020.3 wetlands. The area is also especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change due to population pressure, and clustering i.iii Policy context: Coastal management of industry and recreation on the coast. In the UK, coastal groups, made up of the Environment There is also the requirement in both countries, due to the Agency and coastal local authorities, produce statutory Habitats Directive, to develop new areas of intertidal habitat. Shoreline Management Plans (SMPs) to assess the long This is to compensate for coastal habitat lost due to rising term risks of coastal processes to people and the natural sea level, in order to maintain the conservation status of environment. There are four SMPs covering the coastline designated Natura 2000 sites. Whilst there is less population of the South West of England. The Exe Estuary and Poole 1 http://www.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/Les-objectifs-de-la-France-en.html 2 h ttp://www.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/Le-Plan-national-d-adaptation,22978.html 3 h ttp://www.climats-energies.hautenormandie.fr/; http://www.cr-basse-normandie.fr/index.php/batir-une-eco-region/energie/schema-regional-climat-air-energie 4 Exe – http://www.sdadcag.org; Poole and Wareham – http://www.twobays.net 5 FCRM – http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk 6 Alain Cousin Report: http://www.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/rapport_final_SNGTC.pdf 4 LiCCo Two Countries, One Sea
pressure on the LiCCo sites in France, compared to South Public engagement West England, proposals for habitat creation can be seen as • In England, more people generally participate in controversial by communities in both countries. engagement activities and decision making than in France, through, for example, contributing to public consultations. i.v Public engagement at LiCCo sites • The LiCCo site workshops in Normandy are innovative for Community engagement at both study sites in England a French audience, as engagement on climate change is is integral to the process of developing flood and coastal considered to be in its infancy. These workshops separate erosion risk management strategies. Flood surgeries are different styles of information and audiences, avoiding a also held by the Environment Agency and partners within ‘one size fits all’ approach. local communities directly affected by flooding events. A Personal responsibility for damages number of organisations, such as local authorities and coastal • In the UK the cost of damage caused to coastal properties partnerships, are involved in engagement activities along the is paid for by the home or business owners affected (e.g. coast with the public in the UK. through private insurance, with no indemnity by the state). In France, participation is not coordinated in the same • In France, compensation schemes provide the country with manner. The French approach is not perhaps as transparent as a system of protection against all material damage caused that adopted in the UK, with a narrower range of stakeholders by natural phenomena. involved and fewer opportunities for public participation. However, within the context of LiCCo, each French study ii.ii Similarities site is considered as a ‘site workshop’, bringing together Integrating climate change into management strategies representatives from the community, such as councillors, Both countries have a hierachical approach to this with local authorities and professionals. These site workshops are overarching national plans, supplemented by more detailed used to develop local climate change adaptation scenarios. plans at regional and local level. Meetings also take place with the local Mayors and the public sector departments concerned. • The risks from climate change to the UK are addressed by the Climate Change Risk Assessment (2012) and ii Key findings the National Adaptation Programme (2013). Reports summarising the Climate Change Risks for each region This report has identified a number of differences and in the UK are produced by Climate UK. These region- similarities in the approach to climate change and specific reports provide an analysis of the main threats and management of coastal areas between England and France, as opportunities and the adaptation action required. summarised below. • In France, the risks from climate change are also addressed by a national adaptation plan (2011-2015)(PNAC). On ii.i Differences a regional scale, the ‘Climate, Air, Energy’ plan (SRCAE) Coastal management defines the strategic objectives, with the local ‘Climate and • In England there is a well established and defined national Energy Plans’ (PCET) focusing on reducing greenhouse gas strategy,7 as well as sub-regional plans (SMPs). emissions, as well as energy dependency and vulnerability • In France a national strategy was first defined in 2012, and to climate change. so its implementation is in the early stages. 7 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-flood-and-coastal-erosion-risk-management-strategy-for-england 5 LiCCo Two Countries, One Sea
Introduction i What is the project? damage). The project fulfils this objective by understanding through networking and exchanging experience on the The ‘Living with a Changing Coast’ (LiCCo) project is a topics of flood risk, coastal erosion and climate change. cross-channel project helping coastal communities to better The project also meets Priority 4, Objective 10, since LiCCo understand and prepare for the impacts of climate change, will inform the general public in the eligible area about the including sea level rise and erosion on their coastline. Partner importance of environmental issues and will also include organisations from Devon, Dorset and Normandy are working measures to mitigate and adapt to both predicted and together on this part European-funded project, led by the observed effects of climate change. Environment Agency. • French institutional partners i.i What are its aims? In France there are three institutional partners, who contribute financially to the project: Agence de l’Eau The project will help coastal communities to better Seine-Normandie; Conseil Régional de Haute-Normandie; understand, prepare for and adapt to the impacts of climate Conseil Régional de Basse-Normandie. change, sea level rise and erosion on the natural and human environment. i.v How is the project being It will also improve our understanding of the impact of delivered? climate change on coastal plants and animals and identify • By looking at historical records showing changes in the those which are most affected; dealing with the challenges coastline and understanding that this is a long-term and seizing the opportunities arising from these changes. phenomenon which has always existed • By understanding the issues and speaking to local people, i.ii Who is involved? using workshops and engagement events In the UK • By studying coastal biodiversity and the natural • Environment Agency (Leading the whole project)8 environment and evaluating how they are evolving in • Exe Estuary Management Partnership (hosted by Devon relation to changes in the climate County Council) • National Trust i.vi Timescale • Dorset Coast Forum The project covers a period of three and a half years, from In France April 2011 to September 2014. • Conservatoire du Littoral (Leading for France) • Conservatoire Botanique National de Bailleul i.vii Introducing the study sites • Centre d’Etude et de Recherche sur les Risques et les The project covers seven sites in the South West of England Vulnérabilités-Université de Caen Basse-Normandie and Normandy in France: • Cellule de Suivi du Littoral Normandie • Groupe d’Etudes sur les Milieux Estuariens et Littoraux • Exe Estuary, Devon • Syndicat Mixte des Espaces Littoraux de la Manche http://www.licco.eu/exe-estuary/ • Poole Harbour and Wareham, Dorset http://www.licco.eu/poole-harbour/ i.iv Who is financing the project ? • Sienne Haven, Normandy • Project partners http://www.licco.eu/sienne-havre/ • Interreg IVA France (Channel) – England Programme • Val de Saire, Normandy The Interreg IVA France (Channel) programme is a http://www.licco.eu/saire-valley/ maritime cross-border cooperation programme, which has • Veys Bay, Normandy four priorities. The Living with a Changing Coast project http://www.licco.eu/veys-bay/ addresses Priority number four (assuring sustainable • Orne Estuary, Normandy development of the shared programme area) and Specific http://www.licco.eu/orne-estuary/ Objective 11 (mitigate and manage risks of environmental • Saâne valley, Normandy http://www.licco.eu/saane-valley/ 8 http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/research/policy/130073.aspx 6 LiCCo Two Countries, One Sea
1. Transnational overview This section aims to compare and contrast crosscutting national and international issues of particular relevance to the LiCCo project. This includes a consideration of coastal management, predicted climate change impacts, including sea level rise, both the UK and France, with a particular focus on Normandy and the South West of England. 1.1 UK – Climate change and the coast Using data from UKCP09 projections, the key changes expected as a result of climate change in the South West This section covers: are set out in the table below. This data uses the medium emissions scenario, and sets out changes in relation to the • Future climate and impacts – including a comparison of 1961 to 1990 baseline of observed climate information. The predicted temperatures, precipitation and storms for the initial figure is the 50th percentile with the other figures in South West of England and methods used to predict these, brackets showing the possible range. such as national models and guidance. • The approach to climate change adaptation in the UK. In 2011, the Met Office Hadley Centre published ‘Climate: Observations, projections and impacts’10 at the request of • Predicted future sea level rise – including a comparison the UK Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change. of levels around the South West of England and methods This provides scientifically robust and impartial information used to predict these, such as national models and location on the physical impacts of climate change at a national level. of tide gauges. Comparable reports were produced at the same time for more • Coastal erosion – including a comparison of current/future than 20 countries, including France, using a consistent set of issues and modelling and mapping processes used in the scenarios. UK. Each report contains: 1.1.1 Future climate and impacts in the UK • information on national weather and climate, including The impacts of future climate change in the UK are outlined new data on extreme events, in the UKCP099 climate projections released in 2009, which • an assessment of the extent to which increases in supersede the UKCP02 projections to form the 5th generation greenhouse gases and aerosols in the atmosphere have of climate change information for the UK. The model uses the altered the probability of particular seasonal temperatures latest climate modelling from the Met Office Hadley Centre, compared to pre-industrial times, using a technique called as well as other climate models to project climate changes ‘fraction of attributable risk,’ in the UK as a result of different ‘scenarios’ for emissions of • a prediction of future climate conditions, based on the greenhouse gases. The projections are made for 25km grid climate model projections used in the Fourth Assessment squares and are based on changes relative to a 1961 to 1990 Report from the IPCC, baseline. • details of the potential national impacts of climate change, based on results from the UK’s Avoiding Dangerous Climate The projections provide a number of possible outcomes for Change programme (AVOID).11 future climate, for annual, seasonal and monthly climate averages over seven time periods (2020s to 2080s). This 1.1.2 Approach to climate change adaptation in includes outcomes for three emissions scenarios (low, the UK medium and high) and using a range of probability levels to show the possible spread of outcomes. This allows a level of Modern-day UK Climate Change Policy stems from the uncertainty for future projections to be included. Climate Change Act 2008. This Act sets out a legally binding framework to tackle climate change by setting emissions reduction targets of an 80% reduction in emissions by 2050 (against a 1990 baseline) and enhancing the UKs ability to adapt to climate change. 9 http://ukclimateprojections.metoffice.gov.uk/ 10 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/t/r/pdf UK 11 http://www.avoid.uk.net 7 LiCCo Two Countries, One Sea
Table 1: Key changes expected as a result of climate change in the South West Potential change Amount of change from 1961 – 1990 2020s 2050s 2080s Hotter summers Increase in summer mean 50th percentile +1.6ºC 2.7ºC 3.1ºC temperature range (0.5ºC to 2.7ºC) (1.3ºC to 4.6ºC) (1.4ºC to 5.1ºC) Increase in mean daily maximum 50th percentile 2.1ºC 3.8ºC 4.3ºC temperature range (0.5ºC to 4ºC) (1.4ºC to 6.8ºC) (1.7ºC to 7.6ºC) Increase in mean daily minimum 50th percentile 1.6ºC 2.9ºC 3.3ºC temperature range (0.5ºC to 2.9ºC) (1.2ºC to 5ºC) (1.5ºC to 5.5ºC) Warmer winters Increase in mean temperature 50th percentile +1.3ºC 2.1ºC 2.3ºC range (0.6ºC to 2ºC) (1.1ºC to 3.2ºC) (1.3ºC to 3.5ºC) Change in Change in annual mean precipitation 50th percentile 0% 0% 0% precipitation range (-5% to 6%) (-5% to 6%) (-6% to 6%) Wetter winters Change in winter mean precipitation 50th percentile 7% 17% 18% range (-2% to 20%) (4% to 38%) (3% to 41%) Drier summers Change in summer mean 50th percentile -8% -20% -20% precipitation range (-27% to 14%) (-42% to 7%) (-45% to 8%) http://www.swenvo.org.uk/themes/atmosphere/climate-change/#projection Through this Act a requirement was established for the Climate SW14 is a regional partnership of key stakeholders UK Government to report every 5 years on the risks to the which is focused solely on preparing for the impacts of climate UK from climate change, and to set out how these will be change. Each region in the UK has a similar partnership, and addressed. These documents are the Climate Change Risk these are overseen by the umbrella body, Climate UK.15 Assessment (CCRA) published in January 2012 by Defra, and the National Adaptation Programme (NAP) which is due to be Climate SW exists to: published in 2014. Through the Adaptation Reporting Power, • communicate and respond to the science of climate which is another component of the Act, there is a voluntary change, proposal for public bodies and Government departments • advise on the social, environmental and economic impacts to carry out their own risk assessments and set out plans to of climate change, address the identified risks. The Environment Agency was one • deliver and promote sustainable adaptation responses, of the first bodies to do this, producing its Adaptation report • engage with stakeholders in the South West, and other in November 2010.12 regions, to deliver action on climate change. To coincide with the publication of the UK Climate Change The Risk Assessment reveals that without action we could see: Risk Assessment (CCRA) 2012,13 ClimateSW produced a regional risk assessment, ‘A Summary of Climate Change Risks • Increases in the frequency of flooding affecting tourism for South West England’. This analyses the main threats and sites along the coast, homes (especially those owned by opportunities arising from climate change over the coming people affected by poverty, older people, people in poor years. It provides examples of adaptation action needed health and those with disabilities), businesses and critical in areas such as buildings and infrastructure, health and infrastructure. Annual damage to properties in England and wellbeing, agriculture and forestry, natural environment and Wales, due to flooding from rivers and the sea, is predicted business. The national risk assessment will be updated every to rise from £1.2 billion now to between £2.1 billion and five years taking account of new climate observations and £12 billion by the 2080s. improved understanding of future climate change and risks. 12 http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/research/planning/108348.aspx 13 http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climate/government/ 14 http://www.climatesouthwest.org 15 http://m.climateuk.net/ 8 LiCCo Two Countries, One Sea
• Summer overheating potentially contributing to heat- rise beyond the likely range but within physical plausibility. It related health problems. Premature deaths due to hotter is useful for contingency planning to understand what might summers are projected to increase (e.g. by between be required if climate change were to happen much more 580 and 5900 by the 2050s). Other health risks that rapidly than expected. It is not possible to say how likely the may increase include skin cancer and problems caused H++ scenario is. by ground-level ozone and by marine and freshwater pathogens. The amount of sea level rise caused by melting ice is difficult to predict. However, recent reports from the Ice2Sea • Reductions in water availability, particularly during the project18 conclude that 3.5 to 36.8cm of sea level rise is likely summer, leading to more frequent water use restrictions from melting ice by 2100 (based on a mid range emissions and, in the longer term, water shortages. By the 2050s, scenario). These projections have been fed into in the most between 27 million and 59 million people in the UK may recent IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) be living in areas affected by water supply-demand deficits 5th Assessment report (AR5) on the physical science basis of (based on existing population levels). climate change, published in 2013. This report tells us what has already happened, and what is expected to happen in the Also as part of the Climate Change Act, the Committee on future around climate change. It also gives an indication of Climate Change (CCC) was set up. This is an independent confidence in climate change projections. body which provides advice and scrutiny to the Governments progress on setting and meeting carbon budgets, and The IPCC 5th Assessment report states that global sea level preparing for climate change. The Adaptation Sub Committee has risen by 0.19m between 1901 and 2010. A future rise of (ASC) which is part of the CCC was also set up under the between 0.26 and 0.82m is expected between 2081 and Climate Change Act to provide advice and scrutiny to the 2100 (relative to the reference period of 1986 to 2005). Government specifically on preparing the UK for the impacts Projections of sea level rise in this latest 5th Assessment of climate change. The ASC sit within Defra (Department for report are slightly higher than in the previous 4th Assessment Food and Rural Affairs), who lead on adaptation policy for the report (which was used for the UKCP09 sea level projections), UK. Mitigation policy in the UK is lead by DECC (Department primarily because of improved modelling of land-ice for Energy and Climate Change). contributions. The UK Climate Impacts Programme, (UKCIP)16, hosted by the The IPCC 5th Assessment report has relatively high Environmental Change Institute in Oxford University were set confidence in its sea level rise projections, , stating that it is up to co-ordinate and influence research on adaptation, and very likely by the end of the 21st century that sea level will to help organisations understand the climate projections and rise in more than 95% of the ocean, and virtually certain that how to adapt. In 2011 Defra asked the Environment Agency to sea level will continue to rise beyond 2100. Looking further build upon the work of UKCIP in using science and knowledge ahead, sea level rise could be in the range of 1m to 3m by to build adaptive capacity in businesses and organisations. 2300 depending on the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere The vision of the Environment Agency’s new national Climate from emissions released. Ready Support Service17 is that by 2015 priority sectors will be incorporating climate risk management into their business Sea level has been measured in Newlyn, Cornwall for many decision making. years, giving a continuous record from 1916 onwards. This gauge is part of the UK National Tide Gauge Network 1.1.3 Predicted future sea level rise around which includes 44 stations across the UK. This record shows that historic mean sea level at this location has risen by the UK approximately 15cm since 1916. Sea level rise is caused by thermal expansion of the oceans as they heat up, and melting of ice sheets and glaciers on land. During the last ice age the weight of ice pressed down on the land it covered in northern parts of the UK Since this ice Sea level rise for the UK (before land movements are melted, the earth’s crust in the South of England has been included) is projected to be between 12 and 76cm for the slowly subsiding as the land in the North ‘bounces back’ and period 1990 to 2095. This is based on 3 potential emissions rises in relation to the sea level. This is known as isostatic scenarios modelled as part of the UKCP09 projections (low, rebound and is happening at the rate of a few millimetres medium and high) The High ++ possible sea level rise estimate each year. As a result of these land movements, relative sea gives a range of 0.93m to 1.90m by 2100.11 This is considered level in the South West (i.e. caused by absolute changes of the to be an extreme scenario which has a low probability of sea level and/or by absolute movements of the continental occurring, The H++ scenario provides an estimate of sea level crust) will rise faster than in northern parts of the country. 16 http://www.ukcip.org.uk/ 17 https://www.gov.uk/government/policies/adapting-to-climate-change 18 UK Climate Projections http://www.ice2sea.eu/ 9 LiCCo Two Countries, One Sea
Figure 1: Annual mean sea level (mm) at Newlyn in Cornwall 1916 – 2006 Source: Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory) 1.1.4 Coastal erosion in the UK each section’s SMP provides a ‘route map’ to manage risks to the coast over the short (0–20 years), medium (20–50 years) As a result of climate change, we are seeing rising sea and long term (50–100 years). These SMPs also take into levels and an increase in stormy and extreme weather; account information on climate risks. these changes will increase coastal erosion. It is estimated that there are already 200 homes at risk of complete loss SMPs in the South West cover: to coastal erosion in the next 20 years and it is possible 2,000 more could become at risk over this period.Defra has • Hurst Spit to Durlston Head (Bournemouth Borough national policy responsibility for flood and coastal erosion Council lead) – this includes the Poole Harbour study site. risk management, but provides funding to the Environment • Durlston Head to Rame head (Teignbridge District Council Agency and local authorities to undertake work to actively lead) – this includes the Exe Estuary study site. manage these risks. The National Flood and Coastal • Rame Head to Hartland point (Cornwall Council). Erosion Risk Management Strategy for England19 provides a • Hartland Point to Anchor Head (North Devon District national framework for local communities to develop local Council lead). partnerships and solutions to the flood and coastal erosion The Environment Agency also produces coastal erosion risk risks they face. maps which use the information from the SMPs. These maps In the UK the cost of damage caused to coastal properties by are hosted on the relevant local authorities’ websites. These erosion or tidal flooding is paid for by the home or business maps aim to make information on coastal erosion more owners affected (e.g. through private insurance, with no widely available to the public, to increase transparency and indemnity by the state). In contrast, in France, the ‘natural accessibility, and to make this information consistent across catastrophe insurance regime’ (1982) constitutionally the country. acknowledges national solidarity in the face of disasters. The high level policies of the SMPs are investigated in more Compensation schemes in France provide the country with a detail by Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management system of protection against all material damage caused by Strategies, which exist for both Poole Harbour and the Exe natural phenomena. Estuary. These are developed by the Environment Agency in Coastal groups, in the UK, which include the Environment partnership with local authorities and other key stakeholders. Agency and local authorities produce Shoreline Management They prioritise new and improved flood defence schemes Plans (SMPs) to assess the long term risks of coastal processes required within a smaller area and make the case for joint to people and the natural environment of the whole of the UK funding in order to deliver projects on the ground. coastline. The coastline is divided into 25 unique sections and 19 http://www.official-documents.gov.uk/document/other/9780108510366/9780108510366.pdf 10 LiCCo Two Countries, One Sea
1.2 France – climate change and the a resolution of 1 km and comes from observations between 1971-2000, using the AURELHY method developed by Météo- coast France. The model simulates future climate for three different 30 year periods. These are referred to as the median year i.e. 1.2.1 General Introduction: 2030 (covers 2015–2045), 2050 (2035–2065) and 2080 Because of its location in the North Atlantic, Normandy (2065–2095). For each time period three scenarios are used experiences significant variability in its natural climate. describing differing greenhouse gas emissions from economy, The current data, based on observations over past decades trade, technology and transport. These scenarios are: shows:20 • A pessimistic scenario (A2) – greenhouse gas emissions • a rise in the annual average temperatures of coastal waters increase strongly and continuously. of some tenths of a degree, • An optimistic scenario (B1) – emissions grow slowly, • a rise in the average sea level along the Normandy coast of peaking at 2040–2050 and decreasing after. some millimetres per year, and • An intermediate scenario (A1B) – between the other two • a change to the distribution of species, including the scenarios along the Upper Normandy Coast. introduction of exotic species. Climate variables affecting this coast include: In the second half of the 21st century, using scenario A2 1 • Sea level rise and storms, causing tidal flooding and coastal from GIEC (Groupement Intergouvernemental pour l’Étude erosion. du Climat), Météo-France forecasts an increase of 0.5°C in • Seawater temperature, which affects shellfish farming, average winter temperatures and an increase of 3.7°C in fishing and energy production. summer temperatures. These figures, do not, however, include all the processes involved in climate change, such as a change The climate here is generally temperate with precipitation in general circulation in the North Atlantic. The cumulative spread throughout the year and no major seasonal variations effects of expansion of the oceans and modification of the in temperature. During October to March, however, there North Atlantic circulation could cause sea levels to increase can be storms, more significant differences in temperature greatly after 2060, with major consequences for the coastline and heavy rainfall, which affect the coast. Coastal erosion of of France. the chalk cliffs is caused by the action of the sea (especially when there is significant wave swell), heavy rainfall and frost. As carbon dioxide is absorbed by the oceans, the pH of Temperatures are generally lower in the north, with an annual seawater decreases. A critical threshold, affecting lime based average of 39 frost days at Dieppe (compared with 31 at shells could be reached in the waters surrounding North West La Hève). France before the end of this century. Increased monitoring of marine ecosystems is needed in order to quantify the impact Winds are predominantly from between the Southwest and of climate change on pelagic and benthic species. Northwest and are strongest from November to March. During this time the coast also sees the most frequent and 1.2.2 Future climate and impacts in France strongest wave swells, with an average height of 4m. The Channel is a ‘closed’ sea and so storms tend to be less violent Uncertainties than on the Atlantic coast. Climate scenarios provide an idea of the scale of future climate change impacts. However, there are uncertainties 1.2.3 Summary of the work of Météo France because the behaviour of the atmosphere is not wholly foreseeable and also depends upon the exact model used. The Lower Normandy four main sources of uncertainty are those associated with: Temperatures An increase in future average temperature seems unavoidable. • Different future emission scenarios of greenhouse gases. The size of this growth, and the speed of change, however, • Natural climate variability. depends on the scenario used. Up to 2030, there is little • Simplifying physical processes in a computer model. difference between the three scenarios. • Assigning the results of a model to a specific geographical region. By 2080 under the B1 scenario the average annual temperature increases by 2 to 2.5°C. Maximum summer Methodology used in France temperatures increase by up to 5°C in the south of Calvados, The Arpège-Climat model (version 4.6) used has a resolution the Channel and in Orne. The number of days of high of 50 km and simplifies the actual geography of the land. temperatures increases by 12 to 30 days in Cotentin or Le Data on the current climate (rainfall and temperature), is at 20 In France, this information comes from DREAL Haute-Normandie in 2011-2012 as part of its work for the Climate-Energy Observatory of Haute-Normandie. Reference documents include, ‘Study on the vulnerability and adaptation of our region to the effects of climate change’, ‘Study on the impacts, vulnerability and adaptation of Calvados to climate change’ and the ‘SRCAE-Basse-Normandie project’. Data and analysis comes from Météo-France, the University of Caen – Géophen laboratory and DREAL BN. 11 LiCCo Two Countries, One Sea
Bessin (depending on the scenario), and by 25 to 50 days in significant changes are likely to be concentrated in summer. Perche/Pays d’Auge. The annual number of frost days reduces There are no projections concerning temperatures of sea by 15 to 20 up to 2030, with 40 fewer days in Orne by 2080 and estuary waters along the Upper Normandy coast. (using the A2 scanario). However, The GIP Seine Aval suggests that surface water temperatures are likely to continue to increase in relation to Rainfall the atmospheric temperature. The annual amount of rainfall is predicted to remain fairly stable under all scenarios, although there could be up to 30 1.2.4 Approach to climate change in France days less rain each year, with more intense winter rain and less rain in summer, with possible drought risks. Adaptation policies Adaptation involves making changes to natural and human Upper Normandy systems in order to reduce the harmful effects of climate change or to exploit beneficial effects. France has a national Temperatures adaptation plan to climate change 2011–2015, which is being By 2030, the Arpège-Climat model suggests that the annual used at the regional level. This plan covers information and average temperature will increase by 1°C. By 2080 average communication, health, water resources, biodiversity, natural temperatures are predicted to increase by 1.5°C to 3.5°C. The risks, agriculture, forestry, fishing and aquaculture, energy and maximum annual temperature (Tmax) is predicted to increase industry, infrastructure and transport, urbanisation and the by 2°C to 6°C. The number of days of intense heat (where the coastline. maximum temperature is over 30°C) will currently increase from 5–15 (depending on location) to 10–40 days. The annual The Climate Air Energy Regional Schemes (SRCAEs) are number of frost days will reduce from 40 to 15–25 in 2080. regional strategic frameworks intended for use by the State, communities, the economic sector and civil society. They Phytoplankton activity along the coastline is affected by cover issues including climate, air quality and energy in Lower the temperature of sea and estuary waters. Early planktonic Normandy and Upper Normandy, they set strategic objectives blooms were observed on the Normandy coast in spring 2003 for the region and define 39 guidelines (rather than actions) as a result of a particularly warm spring, where the top layer to achieve these objectives up to 2020. In some sectors, work of the sea is heated, causing decreased dissolved oxygen will be extended up to 2030 in order to reduce greenhouse in the water. During the 20th century, the temperature of gas emissions to 25% of 1990 levels by 2050. surface waters increased by 1°C at a global scale and by 2°C for the North Atlantic. This temperature increase is very Other documents which cover climate change include: closely linked to the rise in atmospheric temperature. • Regional Coherence Schemes which set development Rainfall planning objectives. Annual rainfall is predicted to decrease for all time periods • Urban travel plans which are obligatory for towns larger modelled, for all scenarios. By the end of the century the than 100,000 people and promote alternatives to private models predict 70–150mm less rain per year, (i.e. 10–30% cars. less than the 1971–2000 climate). Most of the reduction in • Agenda 21 which embeds sustainable development in rainfall is predicted for the 6 warmest months. The frequency community action. of heavy rainfall episodes is predicted to stay fairly constant, • Local Climate and Energy Plans (PCET) which aim to with a slight reduction in the cases of long rainfall in winter reduce greenhouse gas emissions and energy dependency (four consecutive days) by the end of the century. Summer and limit vulnerability to climate change through rainfall is predicted to decrease by 2030, whilst winter rainfall adaptation in the short, medium and long term. These are only decreases in the second half of the century. There are agreed by a range of communities and stakeholders. The likely to be 20% more drought days by 2030 and 35–60% PCET aims to make the actions of the region coherent by more by 2080, so that by 2080 35% to 70% of days each acting as a ‘climate energy filter’ through which decisions year will be classified as drought days, compared to less than and policies are passed. Ten PCETS are currently being 10% today. drawn up for Lower Normandy. Wind Stakeholders The model does not project any notable change, regarding The National Observatory on the effects of climate warming frequency or severity of ‘wind’. (ONERC – http//www.onerc.org) works on all aspects of adaptation to climate change. The climate in Normandy is Conclusion monitored by public and private stakeholders, with the main Whilst average values are predicted to change, the most ones listed below: significant predicted change is in the ‘extremes’ and relates to frost, intense heat, heatwaves and drought. The more 12 LiCCo Two Countries, One Sea
• DREAL current one. The most likely value by 2100 is 44cm higher, http//www.basse-normandie.developpement-durable. which means that the rate of rise would be three times gouv.fr greater than that seen in the 20th century. The figure of http//www.haute-normandie.developpement-durable. 44cm would be caused by accelerated retreat of mountain gouv.fr/ glaciers and the start of destabilisation of the Greenland ice • The regional councils of Haute and Basse-Normandie cap, whilst the Antarctic ice cap would remain stable. Along http//www.hautenormandie.fr/ the coast of mainland France, land is subsiding, as in Southern http//www.cr-basse-normandie.fr England and so the relative level of the sea will rise by several • The regional delegation of ADEME (Environment and centimetres more. Energy Management Agency) http//www.basse-normandie.ademe.fr Based on the last report from the GIEC, the National • AirCOM – Association for monitoring air quality in Basse Observatory on the effects of climate warming (ONERC) Normandie believes an ‘optimistic’ prediction for sea level rise is 0.40m, a http//www.air-com.asso.fr ‘pessimistic’ prediction is 0.60m and an ‘extreme’ prediction • Météo-France France would be 1m of sea level rise by 2100, compared to the year http//www.meteo.fr/ 2000. • University of Caen-Basse-Normandie: Geophen Lower Normandy http://letg.univ-nantes.fr/fr/laboratoire/3/presentation In the Channel, an average sea level rise of 1mm/year was • The Réseau d’Observation du Littoral Normand et Picard observed between 1950 and 1970, with a rise of 3mm/year (ROLNP) since 1970 (Regnauld et al., 1998; GIEC, 2007). The rise in sea http//www.rolnp.fr/ level at the local level is very variable, as shown by the study • GIP Seine-Aval from the Conservatoire du Littoral (Clus-Auby, 2004). The http://seine-aval.crihan.fr/web/index.jsp observed rise could equally be caused by long term climate change or short term climate variability. Current observations 1.2.5 Predicted future sea level rise around are, however, in the upper ranges of the results coming from France the climate models (DREAL, 2010). New estimates suggest Sea level is caused by melting of ice on land and by the there could be 2m of sea level rise by 2100 instead of the thermal expansion of seawater as temperatures rise. Sea 50cm initially projected, although ONERC bases its work on a level rise was around 1.8mm per year between 1961 and 100cm rise by 2100. 2003, although this has accelerated over the last decade to Upper Normandy a rate of 2.8mm/year. By the end of the 21st-century, the Since 1972, sea level gauge data shows a rise of around 2mm Intergovernmental Climate Study Group (GIEC) forecasts per year in the average sea level at Le Havre, as shown below: a sea level which will be between 15 and 80cm above the Figure 2: Water level and trend, measured by the tide gauge on Havre 1972-2011 (in metres) Source: Explicit, données SHOM 13 LiCCo Two Countries, One Sea
Tidal flooding along the Normandy coast currents and sediment supply. Coastal erosion can have The risk of tidal flooding is particularly high when onshore ecological impacts (e.g. loss of habitats and biodiversity) and winds and storms occur at the same time as a spring tide. socio-economic impacts (e.g. loss of roads, homes, businesses This risk is likely to increase as a result of the rise in sea level. and infrastructure). According to Costa and Delahaye (2005), ‘the most general storm surge situation is that caused by Southwest storms, Upper Normandy which tend to force ocean water through the Channel’. Studies carried out under the BERM programme (University The most exposed coastal zones are those facing West. For of Caen) estimate that ‘the average retreat of the Upper example, storm surges at Le Havre, which is located in a Normandy cliff coastline is in the region of 20.9 cm/year.’ funnel-shaped bay, are particularly sensitive to Westerly The rate of erosion varies greatly between different areas winds. Climate change is not predicted to have a large impact depending on geology (how resistant the chalk is) and the on storm surge winds in these areas (e.g. Dieppe and Le presence of obstacles, both natural (cliff collapses) and Havre). man-made (groynes and jetties), which block the movement of pebbles [Costa, Delahaye (2003)]. Low-lying, built-up, coastal areas are particularly at risk of storm flooding. This is due to increasing settlement of coastal The study categorises the coastline into three different areas and an insufficient supply of sediment along the coast. sectors: Despite continued erosion of cliffs and a prohibition on pebble • a weak retreat sector (Antifer/Etretat and Etretat/Fécamp), extraction since the 1970s, the pebble beaches in Normandy with erosion speeds of 8.8 to 13.5cm/year, have generally not seen a significant build-up (accretion) • a moderate retreat sector (Fécamp/Saint-Valéry-en-Caux; of beach material. The ‘Beaches At Risk’ (BAR) programme Dieppe/Le Tréport), with erosion speeds around 19cm/year, estimated the volume of Upper Normandy beaches in 2003 and and compared this with 1995 data. This showed an increase in • a strong retreat sector (Saint-Valéry-en-Caux/Dieppe; volume for most beaches limited by a port jetty (e.g. Fécamp, Le Tréport/Ault) with erosion speeds of 21 to 28cm/year. Saint-Valéry-en-Caux Est, Dieppe) or limited by a major groyne (e.g. Quiberville, Saint-Valéry-en-Caux Ouest). Other If 10km of coastline retreats by 20cm, then 0.2km² beaches saw a slight loss of volume or no change, despite (20 hectares) of coastal land is lost. Increased periods of retreat of the cliffs [Costa, Delahaye (2005)]. freezing and thawing and increased frequency/intensity of drought may cause an increased rate of cliff erosion. Saltwater intrusion into the coastal aquifers of According to data from the Eurosion4 programme (2004), Upper Normandy 2.6% of the coastline of Seine-Maritime is stable, 3.9% is Climate change is likely to impact on coastal aquifers as a increasing, whilst 73.9% is subject to erosion. (The remaining result of sea level rise, increased storm conditions and lower 18.9% of the 152km coastline is affected by man-made river water flows, which may result in the intrusion of saline structures such as ports, dykes and embankments). The coasts water into the groundwater. In the coastal areas, a growing of the Channel/North Sea are suffering the highest rates of population and increasing tourism will also put additional erosion. pressure on water supplied from aquifers. Lower Normandy There are numerous drinking water abstraction points along A clear contrast can be seen between the coastlines of the Higher Normandy coast, especially in Dieppe, Fécamp Calvados and La Manche. Just over half of the coast of and Étretat. Saltwater intrusion poses a particular risk here Calvados is ‘natural’ and in these areas erosion is significant. to a significant part of the drinking water supply to coastal Dykes are especially important as a flood defence in the east communities. of the ‘département’. However, in La Manche over 45% of the ‘natural’ coastline is extending. This includes the harbours 1.2.6 Coastal erosion in France of West Cotentin (mouths of coastal rivers) and the Baie des Coasts retreat or grow naturally (erosion and accretion), Veys. Other coastal areas have both stable sections (e.g. under the influence of waves, wind, currents, frost and cliffs of Cap de la Hague) and eroding sections subject to rain. The rate of change depends on the seasons and the westerly winds and sea currents (e.g. dunes of West Cotentin). coastal geology and geomorphology. Coastal erosion may The following map shows the stable and eroding sections of be increased by human activity, such as development on coastline: rivers and the coast or aggregate extraction, which can affect 14 LiCCo Two Countries, One Sea
Figure 3: Coastal erosion on the Lower Normandy coastline. Source: Ifen – Coastal Observatory, according to the Eurosion database, 2004. 15 LiCCo Two Countries, One Sea
1.3 UK – coastal risk management Natural England http//www.naturalengland.gov.uk This section summarises the current approach to coastal Natural England is a non-departmental government body management in the UK, including the organisations involved responsible for advising the UK government on the natural and their respective roles are as follows: environment. Part of this role includes a responsibility to ensure that Special Areas of Conservation (SACs) and 1.3.1 Organisations involved Special Protection Areas (SPAs) are managed favorably Defra (Department for the Environment Food and Rural for conservation in line with the Habitats Directive and Affairs) relevant UK law, including the Conservation of Habitats http//www.defra.gov.uk and Species Regulations 2010. As such, Natural England is Defra are the UK government department responsible for a key stakeholder in considering the implications of coastal the environment, food and farming. This role includes setting management decisions for wildlife conservation on the coast. national policy for managing the risks from flooding and Coastal forums coastal erosion. Defra provide the majority of funding for (e.g. Dorset Coast Forum) building flood and coastal defences in England through grants www.dorsetcoast.com to the Environment Agency. Coastal Forums tend to be fairly strategic in scale, covering a Environment Agency (EA) County or Region and addressing broad issues affecting the http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/ coast. Each Coastal Forum is a partnership of stakeholders The Environment Agency is a non-departmental government from different sectors, all with an interest in the coast of body and is the principal flood risk management operating that area. Forums exist to promote and deliver sustainable authority in England. This means that it has permissive powers management and use of the coastline in the context of an to manage flood risk from rivers classed as main rivers and Integrated Coastal Zone Management approach. from the sea, but is not legally obliged to do so. Since 2008 Coastal Forums may disseminate information and best the EA has been responsible for taking a ‘strategic overview’ practice and deliver projects, events and conferences to of all flood and coastal erosion risk in England, working with diverse marine and coastal sectors, so providing a platform for other authorities responsible for managing risks from all increased understanding of coastal change adaptation. sources of flooding and erosion. Coastal Groups Local Authorities e.g. South West Coastal Group e.g. Purbeck District Council, Teignbridge District Council http://www.southwestcoastalgroup.org.uk/ http://www.dorsetforyou.com/purbeck There are seven coastal groups in England each of which http//www.teignbridge.gov.uk/ covers a defined section of England’s coast. For example, the Local authorities in England fulfill a wide range of functions South West Coastal Group covers the coast from Portland including planning, highways, countryside management Bill in Dorset to Hartland point on the coast of North Devon. and environmental health, depending on whether they are These voluntary groups are made up of local representatives a district, county or unitary authority. They are also often from the Environment Agency, Local Authorities and major coastal landowners. Local authorities have powers to coastal experts and their administration is funded by their construct defences against coastal erosion through powers membership. The primary role of the coastal groups is to granted under the Coast Protection Act 1949. However, produce Shoreline Management Plans which recommend how local authorities are not legally obliged to defend the coast to manage the coast over the next 100 years. Figure 4 on the from erosion. The majority of funding for local authorities following page shows the areas covered by different groups. to build and maintain coastal defences is distributed by the Environment Agency. Additional funds are raised through Coastal observatories contributions from developers. Certain councils, such as (e.g. Plymouth Coastal Observatory) Dorset County Council and Devon County Council have http://www.channelcoast.org/contact_us/ recently been designated as the Lead Local Flood Authority There are 6 coastal observatories across England, which (LLFA). These authorities are responsible for managing flood together form a Strategic Regional Coastal Monitoring risk from local sources such as watercourses, surface water Programme. and groundwater and ensuring that local flood incidents are investigated by the appropriate risk management authorities. As an example, the South West Regional Coastal Monitoring These new responsibilities are set out in the Flood and Programme provides a standard, repeatable and cost-effective Water Management Act 2010 and Flood Risk Regulations method of monitoring the coastal environment in the South 2009. Local authorities also set out planning policie which West. affect development on the coast in their Local Development Documents (LDDs). 16 LiCCo Two Countries, One Sea
Figure 4: Coastal groups of England Source: http://www.scopac.org.uk/index.html 17 LiCCo Two Countries, One Sea
A collaboration between the maritime Local Authorities, the Partnerships share common values and common core services Environment Agency and the Coastal Groups of the South that they provide, including acting as the main local delivery West, the Programme provides a freely available dataset of agents for Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) in the consistently high quality across the region. UK for many years. Large quantities of data are made freely available from the Some Coastal Partnerships, such as the Exe Estuary survey and analysis programme; this has proved useful to Management Partnership also function as European Marine Local Authorities within the region, the Environment Agency, Site Management Groups. [European Marine Sites are tidal consultants in coastal defence, conservation management, waters which are designated as either a Special Protection and academic research, as well as for educational purposes. Area or Special Area of Conservation under the Habitats Directive.] In these cases the Partnerships also oversee the Marine Management Organisation (MMO) delivery of objectives that aim to achieve favourable condition http://www.marinemanagement.gov.uk of the wildlife and supporting habitats protected by the The Marine Management Organisation (MMO) has been designation. established to make a significant contribution to sustainable development in the marine area and to promote the UK The Coastal Partnerships Network (CPN) exists to encourage government’s vision for clean, healthy, safe, productive and the exchange of information and debate between Coastal biologically diverse oceans and seas. It is a new executive Partnership Officers and to establish links with other coastal non-departmental public body (NDPB) established and given stakeholders. powers under the Marine and Coastal Access Act 2009. 1.3.2 Planning for coastal change The MMO have incorporated the work of the Marine and Fisheries Agency (MFA) and acquired several important new The Environment Agency takes a lead role in planning for roles, principally marine-related powers and specific functions sustainable management of the risks associated with coastal previously associated with the Department of Energy and change in England and Wales. The process for planning how Climate Change (DECC) and the Department for Transport to manage the risks from coastal change, including where and (DfT). how to build defences, is illustrated in the Figure below. The establishment of the MMO as a cross-government delivery partner therefore marks a fundamental shift in Figure 5: Planning for coastal change planning, regulating and licensing activity in the marine area with the emphasis on sustainable development. Step 1: Shoreline Management Plan The MMO has a wide range of responsibilities, including implementing a new marine planning system designed to integrate the social requirements, economic potential and Step 2: Strategy environmental imperatives of our seas; implementing a new marine licensing regime that is easier for everyone to use; and Step 3: Schemes managing UK fishing fleet capacity and UK fisheries quotas. Coastal Partnerships (e.g. Exe Estuary Management Partnership) http://www.coastalpartnershipsnetwork.org.uk/ According to the Coastal Partnership Network (CPN – the umbrella body) there are around 40 (active) Coastal 1.3.3 Shoreline Management Plans Partnerships in England, with experience of implementing voluntary coastal and estuary management plans and Shoreline Management Plans (SMPs) form the basis for strategies. Coastal Partnerships play a vital role in the planning how to manage the risks from coastal change in integration and management of actions and activities on our England and Wales. (See location of 25 SMPs in the UK on coasts, and generally work at a local scale. As with Forums, the next page). SMPs are strategic in nature and are produced Partnerships consist of stakeholders from many different in partnership by the Environment Agency (EA) and local sectors, all with an interest in the coast. Partnerships regularly authorities with input from other stakeholders including local deliver stakeholder engagement on behalf of statutory communities, Natural England, affected landowners and organisations, and so have a significant public-facing role to others. The first round of SMPs was completed in 1995 and a play in terms of coastal management. second round was published in 2011. A variety of different Partnership models exist, and each has The purpose of SMPs is to assess the risks coastal change developed to reflect local circumstances based on local issues presents to the developed environment (people and property), and the requirements of local stakeholders. However, all the natural environment (e.g. intertidal habitat) and the 18 LiCCo Two Countries, One Sea
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