The Year 2021 Which investments will see the light in the biofuel industry? - Greenea
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Copyright © 2021 Greenea. All rights reserved
The Year 2021
Which investments will see the light in the
biofuel industry?
Copyright © 2021 Greenea. All rights reserved January 06, 2021
What is the worldwide situation of the biofuel market in end-2020?
2020 was a challenging year for the whole biofuel industry, as we have seen an unprecedented acceleration of investments in the biofuel market.
On the biofuel supply side, more than 20 companies worldwide seriously announced an investment in a HVO factory to serve the European and US markets. On the
feedstock supply side, we had a crisis on the feedstock supply fueled by covid-19. In some regions, feedstock supply was 30% down compared to 2019, where biofuels
demand was only 5 to 10% down. This shortage of feedstock supply was a crash-test for actors, as we fear there will not be enough feedstock to meet HVO supply in
the coming years.
Why such a popularity? Countries’ mandates is above the blend wall pushing the use of alternatives of FAME and Ethanol. HVO is at this stage the only alternative to
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diesel biofuel FAME, and the number of diesel vehicles is so important (around 70%) in the EU, that distributors cannot bet on other alternatives non-diesel related to
fulfill the mandates. Financially, HVO production makes more sense as for majors, margins are attractive, while cost per GJ remain in the same order of magnitude
than FAME and UCOME costs. Finally, HVO production allows an actor to have a feet in the sustainable aviation fuel market, the bio-naphta market and the bio-LPG
market, the three molecules being co-products of HVO production.
What are the risks? The main risk is about feedstock procurement, as it is not clear today how the capacity added in 2020 can secure feedstock considering the
current pressure on the resources. The second risk concerns the blend wall definition. If B7 will remain the main biofuel used for diesel cars and B10/B30/B100 do not
heavily penetrate the market, then HVO is safe in the short-term. In the long-term, the EU is shifting towards gasoline vehicles, meaning less diesel sales and in its
wake probably less diesel biofuel sales.
2021 should probably be the year where companies are going to be down-to-earth, as investments will concretize. Players may realize that the task is harder than it
seems, particularly on the operational side to secure waste-based and advanced feedstocks.
Regarding covid-19 impacts on supply and demand. Despite a complicated year, exports to the EU are increasing in the top exporters, making the EU more and
more reliant on the outside. Regarding feedstocks, covid-19 barely hit exports from foreign countries to the EU. Since October 2020, most of the exporters are back to
normal or better than in 2019, except China and Indonesia. Regarding diesel biofuels imports, China’s UCOME exports to the EU increased by around 300kt,
increasing always more the EU’s dependance on fuels it soon won’t be able to use.
Legislation. European countries have until end-Q2 2021 to translate REDII into national schemes, however some countries have already taken the leap, particularly in
West and North Europe. For instance, the German Ministry of Environment has started the process of REDII transposition with an ambitious draft of law that projects to
increase the GHG reduction mandate by 22% by 2030. In the UK, a cap of 4% 1G feedstock has already been proposed decreasing to 2030. Italy, Sweden,
Netherlands, Spain have as well set some guidelines for the next decade.
More to see in the following presentation!
2
Everywhere in the world, new HVO1 projects are projected to significantly increase by 2025, triple in
the EU, six-fold in the US, and three-fold in Asia compared to 2020
Pure HVO and co-processing projects running or announced
HVO capacity
(million ton)
HVO capacity
x6.5 (million ton)
15 12,6
3
10 v x3
5 2
1,9
v
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1,10
0 1
North America 0,34
0
2020 2025 East Asia
2020 2025
HVO capacity
(million ton)
HVO capacity
∞ HVO capacity (million ton)
1,0 (million ton) x3
0,77
x3.2
0,5
v 15
11,30
4,5 3,90
12 3,0
9 v
0,0
0,00
6 3,50
v 1,5 1,30
South America 3
0,0
0 Southeast Asia
2020 2025 Europe
2020 2025
2020 2025
Source: Greenea Analysis
Note: 1. Includes all type of HVO for road transport projects: pure and co-processing projects 3
… and so are biojet fuels, mostly HVO-based, where most of the projects will see the light in 2025
Biojet projects running or announced
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Source: Greenea Analysis
4
For 3 years, the EU has not been ensuring its own UCO collection to meet its UCO(ME) demand and
therefore the EU has drastically increased UCO(ME) imports
The amount of UCO collected in Around 60% of the UCO supply comes outside EU, around 65% of the
Europe is slowing down since 2015… latter from Asia
EU UCO collected (thousand ton) More UCOME/HVO from Asia was UCO exports to the EU-27 (2020f)
+5% imported to compensate the gap
1,200 1,060 1,100 and keep the biodiesel production
926 steady
900
+27% 850 792
800 750
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550
450
400 350
EAST EUROPE
+ RUSSIA
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020f 120 KT
EAST ASIA
… and UCO imports have accelerated NORTH
374 KT
during the last three years due to the AMERICA
growing EU demand SOUTH EAST
116 KT
Asia and Oceania
EU UCO imports (thousand ton) +10%
MIDDLE 482 KT
1,600
1,360 1,340
AFRICA
+19% 1,235 24 KT EAST
1,200 997 LATIN 133 KT
859
800 AMERICA
484 480 534
350
450 87 KT
400
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020f
Waste-based in the EU: maturity was reached, and the surplus will rely on imports
Source: Greenea Analysis, Custom Data, USDA
5
The exporters of yesterday may be the consumers of tomorrow, particularly the biggest
exporters such as China …
Ethanol blending mandate
Year 2019/2020
Biodiesel blending mandate
British Columbia Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba Ontario Turkey India China
E5 B4 E5 B2 E7.5 B2 E8.5 B2 E5 B4 E10 B5 E10 B5
B0.5
Minnesota
B10 and
B5 or B20 E10 target E10 target In 2020, China has set an ambitious goal Japan*
in 2019 in 2019 10% in 2021 is the objective for the EU to be carbon neutral by 2060, promoting
California 14% in 2030 with a minimum of 3.5% on particularly biofuels from non-food E2
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advanced biofuels biomass
E20 B20 South Korea
EU
Mexico 10% of biofuels B2.5
(cap 7% of 1G)
E2
E10 under Vietnam
Costa Rica discussion B5 (Oct-March)
B20 (April-Sept) E5
E7 B20
USA
Thailand
Panama
E20 B10
E10
JAMAICA: E10
Philippines
Colombia B5 under
B12 target discussion E10 B2
E10 B10
Ecuador B15 target Malaysia
B10 target in 2019
E5 B5 B20
B30 target
in 2019 Indonesia
Peru B15 target
E20 - 2025
E27.5 under in 2023 E5 B20
E7.8 B5 discussion E20 target
Paraguay Argentina Uruguay Brazil Sudan Angola South Africa Malawi Mozambique Kenya Ethiopia New South Wales Queensland
E25 B1 E5 B12 E9-10 B6 E27 B11 E10 E10 EX B2 E10 E10 E10 E5 E7 B2 E3 B0.5
Source: Greenea Analysis, Governments websites
Note:
It is noticeable that most of the oil-producing - particularly from OPEP - have not implemented a biofuel mandate.
1. Turkey only has a mandate of 0.5% of biodiesel 6
… and the competition is becoming fierce …
China is flooding the EU market with UCO/UCOME Most of the southeast Asian countries collect less
and US diesel UCO-based biofuels demand grows – than 30% of their UCO potential, however the UCO is
to satisfy the CA1 mandate locally used or locked for further local projects
USA diesel UCO-based biofuels domestic production
UCO collected and potential (thousand tons) - 20192
(thousand ton) Large Oil and Gas majors are
832 taking positions to 0lock UCO in 500 1.000 6.500
763 China and Malaysia
UCOME consumption 736 723 1.151
750 693 China 6.104
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UCO exports to the EU-27
600 179 Malaysia is a hub for UCO
Exports to the EU are Malaysia China is starting to use
456 consolidation area from
going down following the UCO locally and
surrounding countries
450 increase in domestic 107 may reduce exports in
Indonesia 544
production the next years
300 215 72
205 India
170 157 150 166 1.331
118 137 112 122 110 134 116 112
150 In Indonesia, the geographical
32 25
Vietnam 58 constraints are limiting the share of UCO
collected
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020f 15
Hong Kong 39 UCO exports are limited in India
Chinese exports to Europe 9
by the government, which wish to
Singapore use UCO for local mandates
(thousand ton) 847 26
800 China UCOME exports1 8
Thailand 234
China UCO exports EU-27 The UCO collection in Europe is robust –
1 and today the EU only relies on imports
600 525 Philippines 161 for the growing demand of UCO
0 The US is close to reach its limit of UCO
481 Cambodia 10
400 collected and may start importing UCO –
278 from Asia - to satisfy its local growing
232 349 1.100
EU 1.102 demand
200 274
43 990
6 USA 1.184
1
0 45
2 0 10 12 2
UCO Collected UCO Potential
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020f
Source: IEA, Greenea Analysis Conclusion: Less UCO and more UCOME available for European actors?
Note:
1. California 2. 2019 is more of reference year considering covid-19 crisis in 2020 7
The EU is still dependent on foreign countries, the total accounting for 1.4mt in 2020,…
Imports to the EU-27 are growing in most UCO- Covid-19 impact barely hit exports. Most of the
collecting countries, gravity center shifted from China exporters are back to normal or better than 2019 in
to Malaysia and to non-traditional exporters October 2020, except China and Indonesia
EU-27 UCO imports (thousand metric ton) UCO monthly exports to the EU Average 2019
China USA
0 100 200 300 400 1.000 1.100 1.200 1.300 1.400
50 20 18
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17
40
China 481 -16% 28 30 15
274 -207 30 26 25 33 33 12
China is using more UCO for
1821 11 12 10
producing UCOME/HVO for export 20 9 +26%
USA 116 11 10
to the EU, which explains why it 6
112 10 4 6
went down in 2020 5
0 5
Malaysia 113
273 +160 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20
Indonesia 101
115 2018 UCO imports (EU-27) Malaysia Indonesia
Russia 62 2017 UCO imports (EU-27) 50 45
20
94 2019 UCO imports (EU-27) 15
40 31
KSA 2020f UCO imports (EU-27) 27 15
68 30 22 10 10 10
78 19 10 7
20 16 13 14 14
11 4
Japan 5 34 4 4
-38%
53 10 +105%
43
0 0
Egypt 11 Dependance on exports for Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20
18 the UCO is increasing every
year
Others 355
KSA Japan
333 -22 14 6 6
997 +24% 12 11 10
Total 1.235 +10%
1.360 10 5
1.340 4 4
8 7 7 4
5 6 5 5 4 3 +15%
6 5 3 3 3
4 -4% 3
4 3 3
Source: Greenea Analysis, Customs HSCODE 15180085/99 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20
8
FAME/HVO dependance on imports exploded in the year 2020, covid-19 was a catalyst, as the
EU-27 economy was not producing enough domestically
China’s UCOME increased by around 300kt and
Covid-19 may have increased dependencies for
PME imports decreasing since EU government are
diesel biofuel imports, particularly from China
not promoting it, and palm oil boomed
EU-27 FAME imports (thousand metric ton) China Argentina
112 200
0 100 600 700 800 900 1.000 1.100 89 124 142
100 76 84 150 126
This could explain 59 +184% 106
92 91
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525 100 72
China +322 why China UCO 61 59 70 69
50 34 35 31 +28%
847 exports decreased 41
50
876
Argentina Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20
1.041
Anti dumping measures in the Malaysia Indonesia
805 EU and high prices of PME
Indonesia -646 100 81 50 43
159 discourage actors to import
80 40
57 55
60 -14% 47 46 42 30
742 Anti dumping measures in the 38 18
40 26 30 20 13 16
Malaysia EU and high prices of PME 22 9 9 10
531
8 5
discourage actors to import 20 10 2 -84%
0 0
38 Mostly UCOME and Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20
Korea POME
99
Korea India
UCO is banned for exports in 19
32 20 15 14
India, but some factories are
India in free exports zones 14 14
56 15 10
10 7 7
9 8
10 5
21 5 5 5
Hong Kong Mostly UCOME and 2019 UCOME imports (EU-27) 4 5
5 2 +106%
33 POME +58% 0
2020f UCOME imports (EU-27)
Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20
Source: Greenea Analysis, Customs HSCODE 38260090 FAME/UCOME monthly exports to the EU-27
Average 2019 9
HVO prices have became more transparent in 2020 as HVO producers are increasing, despite
covid-19 crisis, spreads remain constant
North West Europe Region
prices, in some countries we
HVO market has became observed an additional
more transparent as new premium up to 500 USD per
actors emerged1 ton
Prices (USD per ton)
Market more transparent with
2,086 2,083 day-to-day reporting1
2,073 HVO2,057 2,057
not transparent
2,014 1,983 1,983 1,983
1,958
2,000 1,883
1,858 1,858
1,800 1,742
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1,696
1,600
+406
1,400
1,212
1,200
1,000 +1,307
848
800
600
360
400
23 Sep 2020 8 Oct 2020 23 Oct 2020 7 Nov 2020 22 Nov 2020 7 Dec 2020 22 Dec 2020
Diesel price2 UCO price3 UCOME price3 HVO base UCO4 SAF5
Source: Greenea Analysis
Notes:
1. Since beginning September 2020, market transparency has increased.
2. UCO DDP North West Europe (USD per ton)
3. T2 FOB ARA (USD per ton)
4. T2 FOB ARA (USD per ton) North West Europe
5. Hydrotreated Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) Synthetic Paraffinic Kerosene North West Europe
10Countries have until end-Q2 2021 to translate REDII into national schemes, however the following
countries have already taken the leap…
Biofuel Legislations for the most biofuel-consuming EU countries Country examples (non-exhaustive)
MANDATE 2019 2020 2021
In France, the Parliament is currently discussing the draft of the 2021 budget law, which article 15 notably the
EC biodiesel 7.9% 8% 8%
ban of palm oil and soybean oil in 2021. No GHG mandate will be included in the law before 2022.
EC biogasoline 8% 8.2% 8.6%
The German Ministry of Environment has started the process of REDII transposition with MANDATE 2019 2020 2021
an ambitious draft of law that project to increase the GHG reduction mandate GHG 4% 6% 6%
by 22% by 2030 Advanced - 0.05% 0.10%
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In Italy, major changes from 2023 are in the making: the ban of palm and soy oil for biofuels eligibility + the
separation of the blending obligation for diesel and gasoline. A proposition to put a cap of 2.5% cap on used MANDATE 2019 2020 2021
cooking oil was proposed by the government and to include biogas in the advanced sub-target. New Biofuels 8% 9% 10%
advanced sub-targets have been published on March 2, 2018, for which biomethane account for 75%, the Advanced - 1% 1.5%
remaining 25% being covered with biofuels made from Annex IX Part A feedstocks.
MANDATE 2019 2020 2021
Spanish authorities have drafted a Royal Decree to increase the biofuels blending obligation to 9.5% Biofuels 7% 8.5% 9.5%
and 10% e.c in 2021 and 2022, respectively. Advanced - 0.1% 0.1%
GHG - 6% ?
The focus is on a linear path with indicative levels for 2030 of 28% for petrol and 66% for diesel, with a MANDATE 2019 2020 2021
control station in 2022”. It also confirmed its willingness implement a biojet obligation (0.8% GHG from 2021 Biodiesel 20% GHG 21% GHG 25.3% GHG
or 2022) but delays linked to the coronavirus situation were announced. The draft of law is still not available. Biogasoline 2.6% GHG 4.2% GHG 5.6% GHG
MANDATE 2019 2020 2021
Biofuels 12.5% 16.4% 17.5%
It is unlikely that the Netherlands will put a cap on waste-based mandates since biofuel mandates are
Advanced 0.8% 1% 1.2%
high.
GHG 4% 6% 6%
How does this translate into demand in supply in the year 2030?
Source: Government Websites
Notes: EC: Energy Content 11High competition on 1.5G and 2G feedstocks pushed companies to directly acquire feedstock
collectors and engage in ventures – the trend is accelerating with an increasing pace
Biofuel producers and waste-based feedstocks join- Biofuel producers and waste-based feedstocks #
ventures and acquisitions in the last three years, join-ventures and acquisitions have been booming
mostly from Holland since 2018
Buyer Seller Country Biocomponent Time Type Capacity
Plastic waste
Neste Alterra Energy USA
liquefaction
Jan 2021 Equity Biofuel producers and waste-based feedstocks
Gevo Praj India Biojet Q4 2020 Join Venture
suppliers # acquisitions/ventures
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Shell Red Rock USA Biojet Q4 2020 Join Venture
Bunge Loders
Neste Holland Storage / refinery Nov 2020 Acquisition
Croklaan 11
Shell World Energy USA Biojet Q3 2020 Join Venture
Neste Count Terminal Holland UCO May 2020 Acquisition
Muenzer Rotie Holland UCO Apr 2020 Acquisition 120 kt
Mahoney
Neste
Envionmental
USA UCO Mar 2020 Acquisition Projected # of biofuels
and join-venture
Quatra Collecto Leo France UCO Mar 2020 Acquisition 2.5k tons
acquisitions following
JGC JXTG Japan Biojet Q1 2020 Partnership 6 beginning of the year
Hahn & Co. SK Chemical Korea 1.5G FAME Feb 2020 Acquisition 120k tons pace
5
HVO / Biofuels
Finco Fuel Goodfuels Holland Jan 2020 Acquisition -
Distribution
BP Bunge Brazil 1G Ethanol Dec 2019 Join Venture -
Sunoil Kampen Holland 1.5G FAME Oct 2019 Acquisition 150k tons
Verbio Atlantic Biodiesel Canada Biodiesel 2G May 2019 Acquisition 150k tons
Gunvor Bionor Spain 1.5G FAME Feb 2019 Acquisition 200k tons 1 1
Quatra Roti Holland UCO Jan 2019 Acquisition -
0
Greenergy Rexon Energy Singapore UCO Sep 2018 Acquisition 150k tons
Parcom Capital Simadan Holland Biodiesel / UCO Jul 2018 Acquisition 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Jan-21
NordEster Oleovia France Biodiesel / UCO Jul 2018 Acquisition
Argent Energy BDA Holland TME Jul 2018 Acquisition 120k tons
Will this trend continue in
Greenergy Oiltanking Holland 1.5G FAME Jul 2018 Acquisition 200k tons
2021?
Neste Demeter Holland UCO / AF May 2018 Join Venture
Neste Electrawinds Holland Biodiesel Dec 2016 Acquisition
Biofuel producers and waste-based feedstocks join-ventures and acquisitions is becoming trendy
Source: Press Release, Companies Websites
12Regarding 2G, supply must be multiplied by five by 2030 to reach targets
Country examples
(non-exhaustive) Biofuel consumed in the EU (PJ1) from different mix of
feedstocks in the annex 9A (2019)
MANDATE 2019 2020 2021 Around 15 kt of Ethanol from Bagasse
PJ
GHG 4% 6% 6% were consumed in 2019 and 100 kt of Around 30% of
Advanced - 0.05% 0.10% biomethane POME (Biodiesel + HVO) 15,9 overall
MANDATE 2019 2020 2021 Around 50 kt of Ethanol from wine lees Around 25% of
EC diesel 7.9% 8% 8% HVO Tall oil 11,7 overall
in 2019
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EC gasoline 8% 8.2% 8.6%
MANDATE 2019 2020 2021 Biogas (animal manure) 7,9
Biofuels 8% 9% 10%
Around 300 kt of biodiesel from POME
Advanced - 1% 1.5% were consumed in 2019
Ethanol Wine lees 2,8
MANDATE 2019 2020 2021
VOL diesel 8.25% 9.25% 10.1% Around 15kt of POME, 100kt of acid oils in Food waste (Biodiesel) 2,6
Advanced 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 2019
GHG 4% 6% -
SBE (Biodiesel) 1,2
MANDATE 2019 2020 2021
Biodiesel 20% GHG 21% GHG 25.3% GHG
Around 150 kt of biodiesel from tall oil
consumed in 2019 Biomethanol 1,0
Biogasoline 2.6% GHG 4.2% GHG 5.6% GHG
Ethanol Bagasse 0,7
MANDATE 2019 2020 2021
Biofuels 12.5% 16.4% 17.5% 50kt of 2G biodiesel mainly from POME,
Advanced 0.8% 1% 1.2% tall oil and SBE consumed in 2019 0,7
Bio-naphta
GHG 4% 6% 6%
MANDATE 2019 2020 2021 Total 2G in 2020 44,5
Biofuels 18% 20% 18% not DC Around 80kt of biodiesel from tall oil
x5
Advanced consumed in 2019
GHG 6% Mandate in 20302 211,8
Source: Greenea Analysis
Note: 1. PJ = million of GJ, including macroeconomic hypotheses in energy needed in 2030 in the EU 132021: The year where HVO/UCOME players will start considering the below elements…
Global feedstocks deposits are
Elements to consider before low carbon final investment decision …
stretched…
Global waste-based feedstock deposit in 2030
Decline of diesel and Reducing trading Local legislation (million ton)
diesel biofuels in the wake margins increase
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Investors will start taking more in At least 3 new Trading Desks for Biofuels
Local legislation is not promoting HVO,
consideration the consumption change & Feedstocks starting in Europe & Asia China
rather promoting biogaz, B100, hydrogen
between diesel vs gasoline fuel and the making more pressure on trading
and renewable electricity
market penetration of vehicle electrics margins India
Middle East
Increasing dependance Europe
Alternative fuels boost Talented traders out Feedstock demand is
for imports USA bigger than global supply
Several EU States support the biogas or Does not make sense for States to rely of waste-based
The feedstock and biofuel trader market feedstocks?
biomethanol for the 2G market in order to on feedstocks from outside the EU, as South America
is limited, making it hard for new entrants
have local approaches and avoid waste-based feedstock imports is now
to attract experienced traders
dependence on SBE, POME, UCO close to 70% RoW
Total WB
Advanced
1G FAME prices up thanks 7,0
UCO quality unpredictable Threat of higher blend walls feedstock
to palm oil phase-out Feedstock to find 6,4
Expected issues on UCO quality due to The ban of palm oil & soybean oil
B10, B20, B30, B100, E85 are HVO cap
limited UCO supply, impacting UCOME starting in EU states will keep increasing 31,0
penetrating the market making HVO 2030
production yields and increasing pressure on the biodiesel price, the
demand at risk in the EU and California
factories maintenance costs former is forecast to increase
Will 2021 be the year of questioning government policies, often very euphoric on biofuels and
renewables in general, but the market reality will always be there to put things back in place
Source: Greenea Analysis
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