The Weekly Update Week 17, 2021

 
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The Weekly Update Week 17, 2021
The Weekly Update

   Week 17, 2021

                    Provided by
The Weekly Update Week 17, 2021
Market Update
1   ▪   Bitcoin registered another flat week, while many altcoins
        keep climbing higher.

    ▪   Bitcoin ended April with a decrease of 2%, the first red month
        since September last year.                                                                                 Bitcoin dominance falls below 50% for the first time since 2018
                                                                                                 $100,000
    ▪   Altcoins have been ripping over the last few months, leading                                                                                                                        100%
        the bitcoin dominance to decline from 71% on Jan 1st to 47%
        yesterday.
                                                                                                                                                                                            90%
    ▪   Despite the strong ETH performance lately, the speculators
                                                                                                  $10,000                                                                                   80%
        now seem to be more cautious than earlier. Flat
        developments in the open interest vs. ETH’s market cap
        suggest that the latest moves are largely driven by the spot
                                                                                                                                                                                            70%
        markets.

                                                                         BTC Price (log scale)
    Valuation

                                                                                                                                                                                                   Bitcoin dominance
                                                                                                                                                                                            60%
2
                                                                                                   $1,000
    ▪   Bitcoin looked strong going into the weekend, but struggled
        to climb above $59,000 and is now back below this                                                                                                                                   50%
        resistance level.
                                                                                                                                                                                            40%
    ▪   Premiums on BTC futures are mostly unchanged from last                                      $100
        week. Premium rates climbed throughout the week, but
        decreased again as the bitcoin price turned again this                                                                                                                              30%
        weekend.
                                                                                                                                                                                            20%
                                                                                                      $10
                                                                                                                                                                                            10%
    Blockchain Activity
3   ▪   On Saturday, the bitcoin difficulty fell by 12.6% due to the                                                                                                                        0%
        declining hashrate following the Xinjiang incidents, leading
        fees to decline back to previous levels.                                                       $1
                                                                                                         2017                   2018           2019              2020                2021
    ▪   The process for implementing the Taproot upgrade in bitcoin
        has begun.                                                                                   Source: Tradingview, Bitstamp

    ▪   The combined total value locked on Ethereum and the
        Binance Smart Chain this week surpassed $100 billion and
        currently sits at $124.6 billion.
The Weekly Update Week 17, 2021
Bitcoin flat, while altcoins thrive
                                                                                                   Bitcoin Correlation:

                                                                                                                                          ETH                    XRP                   GOLD                   S&P500
                                                                                                         90-day correlation

                   Bitcoin registered another flat week, while many altcoins keep climbing
                                                                                                       (weekly change included)
              ▪
                   higher. Bitcoin’s market dominance is now at the lowest level since August                  BTC                0.650         -0.093   0.424         0.104   0.079      -0.010        0.154       -0.029
                   2018, dropping below 50% this week.
                                                                                                    Source: CoinMetrics

              ▪    Ether (ETH) blew through its all-time high last week and has climbed more                     Top 3 by Market Cap: Percentage Change in Price Over the Last Week
                   than 30% over the last 7 days. The combination of the upcoming Ethereum
                   upgrade this summer and the increasing activity on Ethereum has really
                   gotten the attention of many investors this spring.

              ▪    Binance Coin (BNB) is also climbing to new highs this week, and the                                                                                                               34.5%      $3,435
                   exchange token has comfortably secured the role as the third-largest
                   cryptocurrency by market cap, rising more than 1600% this year.

          Best Performing                                 Price   Last week   Last month    YTD
          Waves                                          39.746    102.20%      236.20%    510%                                                                                                      13.3%      $646.6
          Ethereum Classic                               53.714     61.93%      280.90%    841%
          Dogecoin                                        0.439     60.57%      674.50%    7589%

          Worst Performing                                Price   Last week   Last month    YTD
                                                                                                                                                                                                      1.9%      $55,874
          Klaytn                                          2.389    -13.25%       -33.39%   388%
          LUNA                                           17.067    -10.12%         3.93%   2499%
          BitTorrent                                      0.007     -9.09%        -9.57%   2173%

          Last week of top 50 by market capitalization
          Source: cryptowat.ch, messari.io                                                                                                                                                    Source: NYDIG

May 4, 2021                                                                                        3                                                                                                    Provided by
Bitcoin dominance drops below 50%
                                                                                          Percentage of Total Market Capitalization
                                                                                                       BTC       ETH        BCH     LTC     XRP     DASH          NEM           XMR           IOTA          NEO
                                                                                           Market
                                                                                                      48.15%    17.80%     0.82%    0.89%   3.12%   0.15%        0.14%         0.33%          0.25%         0.33%
                                                                                           Share
                                                                                           Weekly
                                                                                           Change*
                                                                                                      -5.70%     5.02%     -0.02%   0.02%   0.09%   0.00%        -0.03%        0.01%         -0.03%         -0.05%

                                                                                             * Weekly change in percentage points
                                                                                                                                                                                       Source: Coinpaprika.com
              Bitcoin ended April with a decrease of 2%, the first red month since
              September last year. The current altseason has seen bitcoin’s market
              dominance drop below 50% and we are currently at the lowest level                          Monthly Performance of Market Capitalization Weighted Indexes
              since August 2018.
                                                                                                                                                                                                      77%
              ▪   The Mid Caps Index ended April with a gain of 77%, crushing the other
                  indexes.

              ▪   The Small Caps Index bounced strongly during the last week of April,
                  and managed to close the month with a 30% gain.

              ▪   The Large Caps Index ended April at 7%, dragged down by bitcoin.                                                                                                                    30%
                  Several large caps like ETH and BNB had a great month, but BTC’s 2%
                  decline held the Large Cap Index down throughout the month.

                                                                                                                                                                                                      7%

                                                                                                                                                                                                      -2%

                                                                                                                                                            Source: NYDIG, Bletchleyindexes.com

May 4, 2021                                                                                  4                                                                                               Provided by
Market sentiment climbing higher again
       The market sentiment is climbing higher again and is once again approaching the “Extreme Greed” area. The Fear and Greed Index dropped to 27 last week, the lowest seen in a year.
       However, we are now back at 68 already, with a rapid climb over the past week. While a market sentiment in the “Extreme Greed” area hasn’t been a top signal in this current bull run, it
       is always important to be more cautious when approaching an extremely greedy market.

              Extreme Greed                                      Fear & Greed Index

                                                                                                                                        68

                                                                                                                                                                                       68

                                                                                                                                                        Now           Last week       Last month

              Extreme Fear                                                                                                                            Greed (68)      Greed (50)      Greed (74)

         Source: Alternative.me, NYDIG

May 4, 2021                                                                                        5                                                                               Provided by
Bitcoin volume dropping
         Sunday marked the third-lowest daily volume of 2021
         The past week has been relatively quiet for bitcoin, and the trading activity has declined. The 7-day real bitcoin volume* dropped sharply, down more than 40% over the past
         week. Sunday marked the third-lowest daily volume of 2021, with only $4.5 billion changing hands on the leading spot exchanges. We are now close to the lows from April again,
         but we expect the activity to pick up again as soon when bitcoin makes its next move.

                                      16
                                                                                              Real BTC Daily Volume (7-day average)

                                      14

                                      12
              Trading Volume ($ bn)

                                      10

                                      8

                                      6

                                      4

                                      2

                                      0
                                      Apr 20              May 20   Jun 20   Jul 20   Aug 20   Sep 20    Oct 20       Nov 20   Dec 20   Jan 21   Feb 21        Mar 21           Apr 21           May 21
                                           Source: Messari, Skew                                                                                         *as defined by Arcane Research. Read more here.

May 4, 2021                                                                                                      6                                                                                Provided by
Volatility stays high
              The 7-day volatility spiked last week and has stayed above 4.5% since. The 30-day volatility is also slowly trending upwards again, a sign that bitcoin is currently
              seeing more significant movements again, with the latest being Friday’s 8% increase.

      15%
                                                                                                BTC-USD Volatility

                                                                               Daily Return       30-Day Volatility            7-Day Volatility

      10%

       5%
                                                                                                                                                                                            4.56%

                                                                                                                                                                                            3.55%

       0%

      -5%

     -10%
        May 20              Jun 20       Jul 20        Aug 20         Sep 20           Oct 20        Nov 20           Dec 20             Jan 21   Feb 21       Mar 21         Apr 21

       Source: cryptowat.ch, Coinbase

May 4, 2021                                                                                               7                                                                            Provided by
It’s definitely altseason
              The bitcoin dominance falls below 50% for the first time since 2018
              Altcoins have been ripping over the last few months, leading the bitcoin
              dominance to decline from 71% on Jan 1st to 47% yesterday.
                                                                                                                                                   Bitcoin
                                                                                                                                              Bitcoin      dominance
                                                                                                                                                      dominance  falls falls
                                                                                                                                                                       below below
                                                                                                                                                                               50% 50%  forfirst
                                                                                                                                                                                   for the  the first
                                                                                                                                                                                                 time time
                                                                                                                                                                                                       sincesince
                                                                                                                                                                                                             20182018
              ▪   It’s been an incredibly strong year for the many altcoins. On January 1st, the                               $100,000                                                                                           100%
                  combined market cap of all altcoins sat at $222 billion. Now, the combined
                  market cap of all altcoins sits at $1.16 trillion, a YTD growth of 420%.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  90%

              ▪   The altcoins have, in other words, significantly outpaced bitcoin’s growth this
                  year.                                                                                                         $10,000                                                                                           80%

              ▪   Many factors have been pulling in the direction of altcoins lately. Thriving                                                                                                                                    70%
                  developments in DeFi have led Ethereum and the DeFi tokens to grow

                                                                                                       BTC Price (log scale)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Bitcoin dominance
                  significantly. Likewise have the so-called ETH-killers (most notably Solana and
                  BNB).                                                                                                          $1,000                                                                                           60%

              ▪   In addition, the market has also definitely been frothy lately. Dogecoin has seen                                                                                                                               50%
                  YTD returns of more than 7500%, and TikTok influencers have jumped into the
                  space promoting investments in highly questionable projects.
                                                                                                                                    $100                                                                                          40%

              ▪   The driving forces seem to be a mix of the anti-establishment uproar seen from                                                                                                                                  30%
                  the WallStreetBets community following the infamous GME squeeze, in
                  addition to a very high risk tolerance with the hopes of financial independence
                  looming.                                                                                                                                                                                                        20%
                                                                                                                                      $10

              ▪   Bitcoin has been consolidating (albeit with substantial volatility) more or less                                                                                                                                10%
                  since the end of February, setting the perfect stage for altcoins to skyrocket. In
                  the 2017 bull run, prolonged consolidation periods were very strong periods for
                  altcoins with capital rotating into the sector.                                                                      $1                                                                                         0%
                                                                                                                                         2017                   2018            2019               2020                 2021
              ▪   While some altcoin projects are highly interesting, such as those within the
                  disruptive DeFi sector, others are not. We urge investors to be cautious                                      Source: Tradingview, Bitstamp
                  onwards in the more questionable altcoins.

May 4, 2021                                                                                                                           8                                                                                 Provided by
Ether (ETH) Futures:
              Open interest data suggest that this rally is driven by spot buyers, not leverage

                                                                                                                                                            ETH Futures: Open Interest
                                                                                                                                 $10bn                                                                           3.8%

              Despite the strong ether (ETH) performance lately, the speculators now
                                                                                                                                 $9bn                                                                            3.6%
              seem to be more cautious than earlier. Flat developments in the open
              interest vs. ether’s market cap suggest that the latest moves are largely
              driven by the spot market.                                                                                         $8bn
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 3.4%

              ▪   The recent strength in ETH has been accompanied by remarkably soft growth                                      $7bn

                                                                                                      Total Open Interest (OI)
                  in open interest.                                                                                                                                                                              3.2%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          OI vs. Market Cap
                                                                                                                                 $6bn
              ▪   Previous rallies in ether have been accompanied by a spiking open interest, this                                                                                                               3.0%
                  time it’s different.                                                                                           $5bn
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2.8%
              ▪   Now, the open interest relative to the market cap has remained flat at around                                  $4bn
                  2.6% since the liquidation flush of April 18th, meaning that the OI currently
                  follows the price action in ETH tightly.                                                                                                                                                       2.6%
                                                                                                                                 $3bn

              ▪   The OI to market cap ratio of ETH is still substantially higher than in Bitcoin,                                                                                                               2.4%
                  though, where the OI sits at 1.8% of the BTC market cap at the time of writing.                                $2bn

                                                                                                                                  $1bn                                                                           2.2%
              ▪   This suggests that the ETH market is more leveraged than BTC’s, but the current
                  ether rally seems more sustainable than previous rallies. However, this is purely
                  based on data from the futures market and do not account for leverage                                          $0bn                                                                            2.0%
                  through lending.
                                                                                                                                    Oct 20     Nov 20   Dec 20      Jan 21     Feb 21     Mar 21   Apr 21   May 21

                                                                                                                                                                 Total       OI vs Market Cap

                                                                                                                          Source: Skew, TradingView

May 4, 2021                                                                                                                       9                                                                         Provided by
Flat month for the bitcoin funds
              It’s been a relatively slow month in terms of growth in the bitcoin
              investment vehicles, with the aggregated fund size remaining flat
              for a month.                                                                                                                    Bitcoin Funds: BTC Under Management
                                                                                                    ₿ 820,000
              ▪   The bitcoin investment vehicles have seen a year-to-date growth of
                  107,000 BTC, but flows and outflows netted each other out in April, with the
                                                                                                                                                                               ₿ 800,416        ₿ 801,844
                  combined bitcoin holdings of all investment vehicles growing by 1400 BTC.
                                                                                                    ₿ 800,000

              ▪   The Grayscale bitcoin trust has not been closed for private placements in
                  the last months, with the shares of the trust trading at large discounts in the   ₿ 780,000
                  secondary market.

                                                                                                    ₿ 760,000                                                   ₿ 756,724
              ▪   Meanwhile, the Canadian ETFs have continued to prosper. In the last month,
                  the Purpose ETF’s Bitcoins under management grew by 18%, while Evolve’s
                  AUM grew by 33%.                                                                  ₿ 740,000                                     ₿ 735,507

              ▪   There seems to be a trend of capital rotating into ETFs, with most other
                                                                                                    ₿ 720,000
                  investment vehicles seeing declining AUM.

              ▪   The market awaits an answer from the SEC on the 10 US ETF applications.           ₿ 700,000           ₿ 694,636
                  This could dramatically shake up the market and lead to further growth of
                  bitcoins under management by bitcoin investment vehicles.
                                                                                                    ₿ 680,000

              ▪   The SEC was due to make a first comment on VanEck’s Bitcoin ETF
                  application last Thursday but postponed it to June. We’ll likely have to wait     ₿ 660,000
                  until at least the end of June for the SEC to make any statements on the
                  ongoing applications.
                                                                                                    ₿ 640,000
              ▪   Currently, 801,444 BTC is managed by bitcoin investment vehicles, equaling                             Dec 30th                  Jan 29th     Feb 28th        Mar 26th        Apr 30th
                  4.3% of the circulating bitcoin supply.
                                                                                                       Source: NYDIG, Purpose, CoinShares, Grayscale, 3iQ,
                                                                                                       Wisdomtree, Ninepoints, 21Shares

May 4, 2021                                                                                              10                                                                                Provided by
Valuation

            Provided by
Bitcoin struggling with resistance?
                                                                 Bitcoin / U. S. Dollar, 6H, Coinbase

              Bitcoin looked strong going into the
              weekend, but struggled to climb above
              $59,000 and is now back below this
              resistance level.                                                   Resistance                 Resistance

              ▪   With an impressive recovery last week,
                  bitcoin managed to climb 26% from the
                  lows at $47k.

              ▪   As noted in last week’s report, the $58k
                  level would be an important area to
                  surpass for further upside. This level got
                  rejected over the weekend, and we still
                  need a confident move above $59k to
                  look for more upside.

              ▪   It looks like the $55k level is holding for
                  now, and we could likely see a retest of
                  the $58k level soon,

              ▪   A retrace to the lower $50k area would
                  also not be surprising (or bearish), as
                  bitcoin consolidation continues, and we
                  haven’t seen any clear signs of a trend
                  reversal.

                                                                Source: Tradingview, Coinbase

May 4, 2021                                                                                             12                Provided by
Futures premiums mostly unchanged
                                                                                                                BTC Futures Annualized Rolling 3-Month Basis
                                                                            60%

                                                                            50%

              Premiums on BTC futures are mostly unchanged from last
              week. Premium rates climbed throughout the week, but          40%
              decreased again as the bitcoin price turned again this
              weekend.
                                                                            30%
              ▪   The annualized 3-month basis is still around 20% on
                  average among the retail-focused platforms.
                                                                            20%
              ▪   The annualized 3-month basis on CME is also declining a
                  bit this week, and touched the lower 5% area this
                  morning.                                                   10%

              ▪   With no clear direction for these futures premiums at
                  the moment, the market seems more undecided on the         0%
                  next move for bitcoin.

                                                                            -10%

                                                                            -20%
                                                                               28 Feb     6 Mar        12 Mar     19 Mar     25 Mar   31 Mar     6 Apr   13 Apr   19 Apr     25 Apr       2 May

                                                                                                            FTX            BitMEX      Deribit       Binance       CME*
                                                                              Source: Skew.com                                                                             *Closed Saturday - Sunday

May 4, 2021                                                                                       13                                                                                      Provided by
Funding rates still neutral
                                                                                                         BTC Price vs Funding Rates

              A quiet week in the bitcoin perpetuals. The funding remains
              neutral.

              ▪   The funding rates have now been in the neutral territory for 16
                  days as short-term traders seem undecided on bitcoin’s
                  direction.

              ▪   This is the longest period of neutral funding rates we’ve seen
                  since bitcoin broke its 2017 ATH in December.

              ▪   One of the key explanations behind the declining funding
                  rates could be the ongoing altseason, attracting the risk
                  seekers to move onto other coins in the spot market.

              ▪   We believe the low funding rates and the low open interest in
                  bitcoin as of now is a healthy sign. With less leverage, fewer
                  positions will risk becoming liquidated, setting the stage for
                  less dramatic price movements.

                                                                                    Source: NYDIG Data

May 4, 2021                                                                                         14                                Provided by
Blockchain Activity

                      Provided by
Bitcoin on-chain summary: Difficulty adjustment normalizes fees

          On Saturday, the bitcoin difficulty fell by 12.6% due to the
          declining hashrate following the Xinjiang incidents, leading
          fees to decline again.

          ▪ The percentage contribution from fees to the miner revenue has
            quickly fallen back to its normal state as it declined to 11.82% over
            the last week, in contrast to last week’s 21.98%.

          ▪ This has made it cheaper to conduct transactions on the bitcoin
            blockchain. The average transaction fees now sit at around $25
            dollars, after having spiked at $62 in the aftermath of the hashrate
            fall.

          ▪ Bitcoin’s difficulty adjustments elegantly absorb various shocks in
            the market and then normalize the state leading the block creation
            rate to reach the desired state of 6 blocks per hour.

          ▪ Now, blocks are created at a higher rate than 6 blocks per hour
            following the difficulty adjustment, meaning that miners are
            earning more from block subsidies at the current rate. This has
            helped to increase the miner revenue, despite a large decline in
            fees.

                                                                                    Source: Bytetree

May 4, 2021                                                                                    16      Provided by
Taproot upgrade upcoming: Status on signaling from the miners
              The process for implementing the Taproot upgrade in Bitcoin has
              begun.
              ▪   Taproot is a soft fork to the Bitcoin network that will improve Bitcoin’s scripting
                  capabilities and privacy. It may help with making smart contracts more
                  efficient and private by only revealing the relevant parts of the contract when
                  spending.

              ▪   It can also improve privacy of the Lightning Network by making channels look
                  like regular bitcoin transactions.

              ▪   To activate the soft fork, BIP9 and Speedy Trial has been the chosen
                  deployment method. Here, miners and mining pools help coordinate the
                  deployment by signaling for deployment in their mined blocks.

              ▪   90% of all blocks within a 2016 block period (the period between bitcoin’s
                  difficulty readjustments) must signal for Taproot in order for the soft fork to
                  take place, meaning that 1815 of the 2016 blocks within a period must signal for
                  taproot. The Taproot soft fork signaling process lasts until August.

              ▪   Within the next 12 weeks, 90% of all mined blocks within a 2016 block period
                  must be signaling for Taproot for the activation to take place.

              ▪   If 1815 (90%) of the blocks signal for readiness within a period, then full nodes
                  that have upgraded to Bitcoin Core or any other compatible implementation
                  will consider the signaling a success and activate the Taproot soft fork in
                  November.

              ▪   We will not see the Taproot activation take place within this first period, given
                  that there are already 365 non-signaling blocks. But, according to
                  taprootactivation.com most major miners seem to be open to signal for
                  Taproot in the upcoming months.                                                       Source: Screenshot from taproot.watch

May 4, 2021                                                                                              17                                     Provided by
The combined total value locked in DeFi and BSC surpasses $100 billion
              The combined total value locked on Ethereum and the Binance Smart Chain this
              week surpassed $100 billion and currently sits at $124.6 billion.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      May 4th
                                                                                                                                            Total value locked: Ethereum DeFi + Binance Smart Chain
              ▪   With the blistering ETH rally, the DeFi sector has seen massive developments in its TVL over                                                                                                      Combined TVL
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      $124.6bn
                  the last weeks. The last week has seen the TVL on Ethereum grow by $16.5 billion, a 1-week
                  growth of 27%.
                                                                                                                       $120bn

              ▪   At the current growth rate, the total value locked on Ethereum’s DeFi alone will surpass $100
                  billion within the next week.                                                                                                                                                                         BSC
                                                                                                                       $100bn                                                                                         $47.3bn

              ▪   The total value locked in Ethereum DeFi has seen a one-year growth of 8318% - highlighting
                  the enormous growth of the sector.                                                                   $80bn
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      ETH DeFi
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      $77.3bn

              ▪   The growth of Ethereum’s DeFi sector has not been without hurdles and problems. The
                  major hurdle to overcome being the scalability issues, leading to very high fees in periods.         $60bn

              ▪   This has led to more centralized chains entering the space (The root behind the
                  contradictory term “CeDeFi” – centralized decentralized finance), most notably with the              $40bn
                  Binance Smart Chain. Throughout 2021 the Binance Smart Chain ecosystem has experienced
                  enormous growth. The total value locked in Binance Smart Chain projects currently sits at
                  $47.3 billion.                                                                                       $20bn

              ▪   Combined, the total value locked on Ethereum and BSC sits at $124.6 billion as of May 4th.
                                                                                                                        $0bn
                                                                                                                           31 Jan           14 Feb        28 Feb   14 Mar    28 Mar     11 Apr        25 Apr
              ▪   Other chains have also attracted new DeFi-like projects with growing success. Solana has
                  attracted the attention of many. Sam Bankman Fried of FTX has been a huge proponent of
                                                                                                                                                      DeFi Ethereum TVL     Binance Smart Chain TVL
                  Solana utilizing the network to create Project Serum, a decentralized exchange with on-
                  chain orderbooks.
                                                                                                                         Source: Defipulse, Defistation

May 4, 2021                                                                                                       18                                                                                  Provided by
Disclaimer

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