The Met Office www.metoffice.gov.uk - Dr Sarah Jackson
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The Met Office
www.metoffice.gov.uk
Dr Sarah Jackson
sarah.jackson@metoffice.gov.uk
© Crown copyright Met Office
2012: Jan-March and April-Oct • add 6 graphs © Crown copyright Met Office
Seamless prediction
Essential support to decision making on all timescales
Hours
Decadal
1-week
1-month
Past climate
Seasonal
Days
Long-term
Now
Confidence
boundary
Analysis of past weather Predicting routine and Monthly to decadal Global and regional
observations to manage hazardous weather change in risk exposure to long-term predictions.
climate risks conditions. animal and plant diseases,
sustainability of Intellectual capital on
Eg. Agriculture: informs Public, emergency environmental
crop choice, planting to agriculture, resilience of
response, flood risk pressures,
yield optimisation and flood defences
management infrastructure
minimise crop failure risk. planning, availability
of natural resources
and capital
© Crown copyright Met Office
Forecast lead-time
Atmospheric Dispersion
First Bluetongue Incursion to the UK
August 2007
4-5 Aug 07
© Crown copyright Met Office
Changing UK Threats
Airborne Chalara Incursion
Spore deposition from the Continent explains UK wider environment
infections better than proximity to recently planted sites
© Crown copyright Met Office
Reducing waste and
inefficiency in the food sector
• We provide historic, actual and 14 day forecasts for
regions and sites across the UK
• Forecasts are used to make decisions on what products
to order, in what quantity to what stores and when.
• Enables supply chain teams to achieve optimum balance
between demand, availability, stock and wastage.
• Consultancy over key periods – holidays, events and
weather type change period.
• Potential to support longer term sourcing and procuring.
© Crown copyright Met Office
WOW – Weather Observation Website – a source of user
generated weather observations
- More than 145 million observations
submitted since launch June 2011
- Over 4 million observations being
received every month
- Over 3500 separate observation sites
created;
- Over 625,000 visits to the website,
from 183 different countries;
- Hosted externally on “Google Cloud”
technology, offering the main benefits of
off-site resilience, and ease of
scalability.
- Google have identified WOW as the
most sophisticated use of their API that
they are aware of to date
- Provides real time information for
weather forecasters in the UK,
particularly in periods of extreme
weather.
Sept 2013
Example data – Wheat and
barley
UK Imports
The import to the UK, per country, of wheat and
barley as a percentage of the total UK
import of the commodities.
Source: UN Comtrade.
Global Exports
The export per country of wheat and barley as a
percentage of the total world export.
Source: UN Comtrade.Wheat and Barley
Each icon relates to an individual impact
Icon size reflects ‘alert rating’2003
Focusing on Extremes 2003
Changes (%) in
winter and summer The precipitation on the wettest day of summer
mean precipitation
may show an increase in some locations, while
at the 10, 50 and
90% probability mean summer rainfall decreases.
levels for the 2080s
under the Medium The number of dry spells of 10 days or Summer
more2003:
normal by 2040s
emissions scenario.may increase – especially in the South East
cool by 2080s
© Crown copyright Met OfficeAn integrated impacts model
Land use change, O3, CO2
Ecosystems
Urban areas Crops
Irrigation
Soils
Water
Glaciers
© Crown copyright Met Office 2011JULES Joint UK Land Environment Simulator
Land surface scheme in Met Office weather/climate models
• 5 PFTs: Broadleaf, needleleaf, C3 grass, C4 grass, and shrubs
• 4 non-vegetated tiles: Urban, inland water, bare soil, land ice
© Crown copyright Met OfficeDECC/DEFRA Hadley Centre Climate Programme research
Global Modelled Net Primary Productivity
Report & publications for HCCP
Sensitivities and Uncertainties in modelled
Net Primary Productivity (NPP) to doubled
atmospheric CO2
Perturbed physics ensemble of 224 different
model runs – HadCM3 model
Average changes in NPP (kg cm−2 yr−1) between
pre-industrial and doubled [CO2] for:
(a) Both climate and CO2 fertilisation effects
(b) Climate effect only
(c) CO2 ‘fertilisation’ effect only
NPP
(kg cm−2 yr−1)
Hemming, D., R. Betts, et al. (2011). "Sensitivity and uncertainty of
modelled terrestrial net primary productivity to doubled CO2 and associated
climate change for a relatively large perturbed physics ensemble."
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology.
© Crown copyright Met OfficeYield and sowing date
% change in 30 y average from baseline (1971-2000)
N application 200kg ha-1yr-1 (middle)
(STANDARD)
Early
(a) Early (10th September) Middle
(b) Middle (10th October) Late (10th November)
(c) Late
Benefits of Gains in north
Smaller gains
early sowing
NS further north for late sowing NS
NS
ES ES ES
WS
WS WS
NE
NE NE
NI NI NW NI
NW
YH NW YH
YH
EM EM
EM
EE Wa EE
WM
Change (%) WM WM
Wa
Wa EE
25
SE SW SE
SW SE SW
2020s
2050s
2080s Losses in
© Crown copyright Met Office 2013
south
Cho et al. 2012, Climate ResearchChanging Global Threats
Dispersion of bluetongue vectors to New Zealand
Brisbane
Sydney
© Crown copyright Met Office© Crown copyright Met Office
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