The Impact of the Corona Virus Crisis on Global Supply and Value-added Chains - Dr. Heinz-Jürgen Büchner
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The Impact of the Corona Virus Crisis on Global Supply and Value-added Chains Dr. Heinz-Jürgen Büchner Managing Director Industrials, Automotive & Services IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG Mannheim, 10 November 2020
Agenda
2
1 Global Economy hit by Covid-19-Pandemic 2
2 Trends in the Markets for Heavy Engines 7
3 Consequences for the Supply Chain 16
4 Appendix 25Global GDP with sharp Decline
3
Real GDP Growth in % In Detail
▪ In 2020, the GDP of all major
10 % economies will show a decline. The
only exception will be China: The
Chinese economy could show a 2.0 to
5% 2.5 per cent higher GDP
▪ Higher risks are seen for the United
States of America, where the number
of the Covid-19 infections is rising
0%
sharply
2017 2018 2019 2020f 2021f
▪ Within the Euro Area mainly Spain and
France will show a strong fall in GDP
-5 %
▪ On the other hand the German
economy will not decline as fast as the
Euro Area average
-10 % ▪ Great Britain has not only high
numbers of infections, but forthcoming
problems as a result of the Brexit
-15 % ▪ We forecast a significant improve in
2021 of the global GDP
Germany Euro Area UK USA Japan China
Sources: National Statistical Departments, Central Banks, IKB ForecastTrends on American and Chinese Construction Markets
4
New Housing Starts in the USA In Detail
in millions ▪ After the recovery of the North American
construction market in recent years, a
1.600
decline in the number of new
1.500 construction starts is expected in the
1.400 coming years
1.300 ▪ The decline in commercial
1.200 construction is much more pronounced
1.100 because the Covid-19 pandemic caused
1.000 major interruptions on construction sites
and the cancellation of projects
▪ Impetus could come from government
infrastructure projects
Chinese Construction Volume In Detail
4.500 7 ▪ Vacancies in the upscale residential
6 construction segment in major Chinese
4.000 cities should be reduced in the midterm
In billion US $
5
3.500 4 ▪ The construction industry is being
In %
stimulated primarily by the
3.000 3
infrastructure programs that have
2 been adopted and indirectly by the
2.500
1 facilitated lending of the banking sector
2.000 0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Total Output Constrcution Industry Growth Construction Industry
Sources: Oregon Office of Economic Analysis, GlobalDataStimulus from the EU´s economic program
5
Future Package „Next Generation EU“ - NGEU Selected Investment Measures
Recovery and Resilience Facility
80,1%
▪ The financial resources are distributed to the EU countries
12,2% ▪ These are to be used primarily for reforms related to green and
Recovery and Resilience Facility digital change, but there are far-reaching applications
2,6%
ReactEU
InvestEU
Just Transition Fund 1,9%
▪ Structural reforms are promoted in the following four areas:
Rural development - Sustainable infrastructure
1,4%
InvestEU - Research
1,3% - Innovation
Horizone Europe - Digitalisation
rescEU 0,5% ▪ Focus on small and medium-sized companies
Rural development
▪ Promotion of a spatial development of the rural economy
▪ Ensuring the sustainable management of natural resources and
climate protection
Just Transition Fund
▪ Total value of subsidies is € 390 billion ▪ The financial resources are distributed to the EU countries
▪ Additionally within the framework of Recovery and Resilience ▪ The fund will support the economic diversification and reconversion
Facility loans in the amount of € 360 billion of the territories concerned
Total amount: € 750 billion ▪ Selected examples: environmental rehabilitation, clean energy,
transformation of existing carbon-intensive installations
A substantial part of NGEU is supporting measures to stop climate change and to promote sustainable development
The EU guesses that around 30% of the funds will be invested in climate-related projects
Sources: EUCO final conclusions 21.07.2020, website EUStimulus from the German government's economic program
6
Future Package:
Financial Needs by Sector Relevant Investment Measures (in € billion)
In € billion Bonus program
Bonus future
program investments
future investments 2,0
Fleet exchange program
Fleet exchange program 0,2
TMT and
Digitalisation
Expansion
Expansionof of
charging infrastructure
charging infrastructure 2,5
23,5%
Mobility and
„Deutsche Bahn“
Equity strengthening "Deutsche Bahn" 10,0
12,00 Traffic
18,05 35,3%
Fleetmodernisation
Fleet modersnisation (bus
(bus andand truck)
truck) 1,2
9,75 InnovationInnovation program shipping
program shipping 1,0
11,30 InnovationInnovation program
program air traffic air traffic 1,0
Health and Research
Research(a. o. energy transformation)
(a.o. 0,3
Pharmaceuticals
19,1% Energy, Industry, National hydrogen strategy (incl.
Mobility and Building Hydrogen strategy (incl. partnerships) 9,0
Partnerships)
22,1%
Sustainable
Sustainable building
building refurbishment
refurbishment 2,0
DigitalDigital
infrastructure (o. a. (e.g.
infrastructure for sustainability)
for climate) 1,0
The total amount of investment measures is
€ 30,2 billion are invested in climate relevant programs
€ 51,4 billion
Key elements of the German government's economic stimulus package will be invested in climate-related projects
In particular, mobility and transport as well as energy, industry, mobility and buildings are linked to sustainable investments
Source: „Corona-Folgen bekämpfen, Wohlstand sichern, Zukunftsfähigkeit stärken“ Ergebnis Koalitionsausschuss 3. Juni 2020Agenda
7
1 Global Economy hit by Covid-19-Pandemic 2
2 Trends in the Markets for Heavy Engines 7
3 Consequences for the Supply Chain 16
4 Appendix 25Light Vehicles global
Production Reductions by Regions
8
-480,185 -1,052,723
-2,376,366
-2,742,532
-3,021,995
-3,554,477
Produced Vehicles
-5,250,389
94.2
Mill. 88.9
Mill.
70.5
Mill.
2018 2019 ME/Africa South Japan/Korea Greater South Asia North Europe 2020
America China America
The influence of the Corona crisis is noticeable in all producing markets
However, China is "first in" and "first out", the predicted decline compared to the previous year is only 11%.
Europe and the USA are much more affected with a decline of more than 20%.
Quelle: IHS September 2020Medium & Heavy Vehicles: Fall in 2020
9
Production of Medium & Heavy Vehicles (in thousands) In Detail
3.741
3.840 ▪ In 2018 we saw a peak in the Asian
3.698
3.471
production of Medium and Heavy
3.424
3.242 3.328 Vehicles
3.116
529 695 504 2.902 ▪ After years of strong growth the
2.808
623 Chinese output fell in 2018
558 615
542 538 634 657 485 ▪ The production of commercial vehicles
239 380
602
came down in 2019. The reduction in
389 594 594
474 492 556 the growth rate was similar to the
670 634
674 development in the light vehicles market
448
645 636 674 673
524 590 ▪ For 2020 a slump of around 25 per
cent for the global production of Medium
1.575
and Heavy Vehicles is forecasted
1.477 1.542 1.473
1.166 1.201 1.131 1.195 1.182 1.215 ▪ In the United States of America the
output will drop by around 40 per cent
▪ For the year 2021 only a slight
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e improvement to 2.9 mill. Medium und
Heavy Vehicles is expected
China Europe North America Southeast Asia
Japan/Korea Latin America Middle East/Africa
Source: IHS August 2020Gas Turbines for Power Generation: Chances and Risks
10
Global Electricity Generation by Technology (in TWh) In Detail
45000 ▪ Electricity demand is expected to
41,373 increase over the coming decades
40000 38,713 ▪ But there is still a significant uncertainty
regarding the severity of the impact of
35000 the Covid-19 pandemic on electricity
demand
30000 ▪ Power generation based on natural
26,603
gas will play a significant role for the
25000 flexibility of energy systems
▪ Siemens Energy forecasts a global
20000
demand for large gas turbines of
15000 8,899 around 70 to 80 units p.a. in the mid-
6,118 term (compared to approximately 200
10000 large gas turbines ordered in 2014)
▪ Decentralization positively impacts the
5000 5,584 demand for industrial gas equipment,
particularly from industrialized countries
0 in Europe and America as well as
2040 2018 2040 emerging economies in Asia
Stated Policies Sustainable ▪ Therefore a stable market outlook
Scenario Developement Scenario exists over the 2019-2025 period
Coal Oil Natural Gas Nuclear Renewables
1) Change of electricity generation based on natural gas compared to 2018
Sources: IEA, DNV GL, Siemens Energy, IKB ResearchTrends in Construction Industry
11
European Construction Volume In Detail
▪ The European construction industry
15 % grew by 2.9% overall in 2019
▪ In 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic caused
much larger declines than expected. In
10 %
Change to previous year
Western Europe - according to
Euroconstruct – the reduction will equal
-11.5 %
5%
▪ The reduction of the construction
volume in the Eastern European
countries will be similar to the lower
0%
output level in Germany
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020p 2021p 2022p
▪ A small decline of 2.4 % is expected for
the German construction industry
-5 %
▪ In the next two years, the construction
industry will recover again, but growth
-10 % rates will be significantly lower than
before the corona virus crisis
-15 %
Germany Western Europe Eastern Europe
Source: EuroconstructTrends in Air Transportation
12
Passenger Kilometers in trillion per Year In Detail
▪ The demand in air travel increased
rapidly in the last ten years due to rising
12
income levels in many countries. As a
result the amount of passenger
10 kilometers (RPK) almost doubled from
2010 to 2019
▪ The Covid-19 pandemic led to a 60 %
8
decrease in passenger kilometers in the
first half of 2020 compared to 2019
6 ▪ The declining demand in air travel will
also lead to decreasing demand in air
crafts because of the pandemic. Boeing
4 and Airbus reported that nearly 200
produced jets have not been delivered
(excluding 737 Max)
2
▪ The IATA International Air Transport
Association predicts that the pre Covid-
0 19 level of RPK will be reached again in
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2024
▪ After 2024 the upward trend will
RPK pre Corona RPK post Corona continue
Difficult market environment at the moment but growth potential afterwards
Source: IATA, Cirium fleets dataTrends in the Railway Industry
13
Global Demand diesel and alternatively powered Locomotives (in mill. €) In Detail
▪ In general, the reduction of diesel
fleets is further accelerated by Covid-19
5.000
▪ Even before Covid-19, there was a turn
away from diesel vehicles (in core
4.500 CAGR: 7.5 % countries like China and Western
Europe)
4.000
▪ In the short term an increase in
3.500 demand in new diesel vehicles is
forecasted, because of very low levels of
3.000 electrified locomotives in freight
CAGR: 6.0 % transportation
2.500 ▪ In the long run, investments in diesel
locomotives are often avoided because
2.000 of climate directives and targets (e.g.
Climate Neutral Europe 2050)
1.500
1.000 Overall, the total volume (2020 - 2024)
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 is estimated to decrease by 24 %
because of the Covid-19 pandemic
pre-Covid-19 post-Covid-19
Difficult market environment (long and short term) despite short term growth opppotunities
Source: SCICruise Ship Market is hit by Covid-19…
14
Number of global Ocean Cruise Passengers (in millions) In Detail
▪ The numbers of cruise passengers
35 increased rapidly in the last years so
that the pre Covid-19 estimation for
30.0
30 28.5 passenger figures was 32 million for
26.7 2020
25.2 ▪ The cruise industry had a normal start
25 23.1 in the first quarter of 2020. But in total
22.3
20.5 20.9 21.3 no more than 10 million passengers
20 19.1 are expected for the whole year
▪ The Corona outbreak forced all big
cruise lines to stop their businesses
15
and some of them announced to operate
10.0 again in 2021 at the earliest
10 ▪ Fleet operators have asked for later
deliveries of ships
5 ▪ In the short-term new orders are not in
sight
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019f 2020f
f = forecast
Sources: Statista, IKB forecast… but Sea Transport recovers
15
RWI/ISL-Containerindex, 2015 = 100 In Detail
▪ The global sea transport declined in
125 the beginning the second half of 2019
▪ After the start of the lock-down in
China we saw a sharp slump in the
120 number of transported containers
▪ Meanwhile, the transport volume
recovered very quickly
115
▪ But we have to take into account, that
a main part of the rising sea transport
activities are the result of a catch-up
110
effect
▪ And even in the year 2021 we expect
that e.g. the transport volume of
105
crude oil will be below the peak of
2019
100
95
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: RWI/ISLAgenda
16
1 Global Economy hit by Covid-19-Pandemic 2
2 Trends in the Markets for Heavy Engines 7
3 Consequences for the Supply Chain 16
4 Appendix 25Covid-19 Pandemic destabilizes proven Supply Chains
17
Supply-Side Disturbances in Mechanical Engineering1) In Detail
▪ From March to September 2020 the
100% 3% 1%
VDMA, the association of the German
9% 11% 7% 9%
10% mechanical engineering industry,
asked their members in a survey
about the disturbances in their
32% supply chains
75% 36% 36% ▪ In the first three months around 40
per cent of them had significant
59% disturbances in their supply chains
62%
▪ These results are compatible with
50% reactions of some other industries
▪ Even at the end of September ten
52% per cent of the participants in the
50% 47% VDMA survey announced
25% disturbances
30%
25%
6% 9%
5%
0%
28. March 17. April 08. May 07. July 24. September
none low noticeable serious
1) Feedback on the survey in percent
Source: VDMA survey on the impact of coronavirus from March to September 2020Biggest Problems in Procurement
18
Impact on the Supply Chain Sector In Detail
▪ In summer 2020 the BVL – the
Problem area Degree of impact German logistics association –
analyzed the impacts of the Covid-19
Problems in procurement pandemic on the supply chain
▪ Lack of material availability ▪ The biggest problems were seen in
the procurement process: A lack of
▪ Reduced material quality materials and a reduced material
quality in combination with higher
procurement costs had negative
▪ Higher procurement costs
impacts in the manufacturing industry
Problems in production ▪ In many sectors the production
capacities exceed the sales
▪ Production capacities exceed current sales volume volumes until now and require
adjustments
▪ Lack of flexibility for production adjustments ▪ On the other hand high inventories
were a problem for several companies
Problems in delivery
▪ High inventories due to unplanned low demand
▪ Stricter regulations
Sources: BVL Survey; 150 companies from the manufacturing industryVolatility in Demand: Strong Effects in Wholesale & Retail Sector
19
Impact on logistics In Detail
▪ The significant reduction of sea
Problem area Degree of impact transport as well as in the air freight
led to sharp increases in freight cost
Transport logistics
▪ In several harbors we saw strong
▪ Significant increase in freight rates delays in the clearance procedures
▪ In some sectors, where an important
▪ Delays in clearance procedure part of the production process was not
interrupted, companies had problems
▪ Lack of planning reliability with fluctuating demand with the fluctuation of the demand
▪ This results into a shortage of
Warehouse logistics storage space
▪ Reduction of storage space due to collapsing
markets
▪ Lack of manpower due to COVID-19 restrictions
▪ Reduction of storage space due to distance control
Sources: BVL SurveyImpacts on indirectly involved Sectors
20
Impacts on Supply Chain Sector In Detail
▪ Even in industries, which are only
indirectly affected by the Covid-19-
Pandemic, the companies will
Industry, COVID-19 has caused probably implement new supply
wholesale, customers to reconsider the chain strategies
retail supply chain strategy in the long ▪ These companies expect, that the
companies term long-term effects of the pandemic
are higher for them in relation to other
industries
▪ The total effects of the challenges in
Logistics COVID-19 has caused the different sectors will be seen in
costumers to reconsider the future years
service
supply chain strategy in the long ▪ But some companies will be able to
providers
term improve their competitive position
as a result of the digitalization of
their supply chains
COVID-19 has caused logistics
Other
companies to reconsider the
economic
supply chain strategy in the long
sectors
term
Sources: BVL SurveyDual or Multiple Sourcing as Strategic Approach
21
Strategic Approaches in Industrial Companies In Detail
▪ A possible reaction on the
disturbances in the supply chains
during the Covid-19 pandemic could
Dual / Multiple be a strategy of dual or multiple
Sourcing sourcing instead of a single-source
▪ But companies have to take higher
procurement costs into account
▪ Company-wide supply and value-
Cross-company added chains could be another
sourcing possible strategy as well as a
decoupling of the value-added
chains
▪ But in total, the process of
Decoupling of
globalization will not be reversed
value chains
Shortening of
value chains
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
fully implemented partly implemented planned < 12 months
planned < 36 months not planned no specification
Sources: BVL SurveyLogistics Service Provider: Evaluation of new Transport Strategies
22
Strategic Approaches in Industrial Companies In Detail
▪ The main effect of the Covid-19-
Pandemic will be a significant
Intensification of the improvement of the digitalization in
company's digital companies and a much faster
transformation transformation process
Improvement of information ▪ But in addition a higher degree of
/ planning process with diversification in the product
supply chain partners portfolio and the entry into new
Implementation of markets are possible
restructuring and cost ▪ Very often we will see new transport
reduction programs systems together with new transport
Diversification of customer routes
portfolio and development
of new markets
Evaluation of new transport
routes and methods
Renegotiation of purchasing
conditions with carriers
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
fully implemented partly implemented planned < 12 months
planned < 36 month not planned no specification
Sources: BVL SurveyLargest unexpected Impacts in the Supply Chain
23
Transport
capacity Supply chain
Employee interruption
absences
Production
Delivery stop
bottlenecks
Lack of Uncertainty
transparency
Unexpected Human
resources
closures of
Slump on planning
Asian market
customers &
suppliers Slump in
demand
Fluctuations Delayed
in demand clearance
Increase in
demand
Border
closures
Contact
restrictions Increase in
freight costs
Sources: BVL SurveyChallenges in the global Supply Chains
24
▪ The process of globalization will not stop
Buy regional? ▪ But we expect a slightly higher degree of regional purchasing activities in addition to the existing
requirements of local content
▪ On the one hand, dual or multi source strategies implement a higher security in the procurement
Single Source versus process for the companies in relation to a single source
secure Supply Chains ▪ But on the other hand, we see rising procurement costs
▪ The Covid-19 pandemic is the biggest stress test for the global supply chains. Less than 30 per cent
Stress Tests for the of the companies in the BVL panel take a pandemic into account in their risk management analysis
Supply Chains ▪ And less than 10 per cent of the panel participants had a set of measures for such a situation
▪ The main result of the experiences during the Covid-19 pandemic will be a higher importance of the
Supply Chain Risk risk management in supply and value-added chains
Management ▪ Investments in digitalization will enable a better risk management in the supply chainAgenda
25
1 Global Economy hit by Covid-19-Pandemic 2
2 Trends in the Markets for Heavy Engines 7
3 Consequences for the Supply Chain 16
4 Appendix 25Your Contact
26
Dr. Heinz-Jürgen Büchner
Managing Director,
Industrials & Automotive
IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG
Speicherstraße 49-51 – 60327 Frankfurt
Telefon +49 69 79599-9602
Mobil +49 171 2249517
E-Mail Heinz-Juergen.Buechner@ikb.deDisclaimer
27
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Telefon : +49 69 79599-9602
10.11.2020
Herausgeber: IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG, Wilhelm-Bötzkes-Straße 1, 40474 Düsseldorf
Vorsitzender des Aufsichtsrats: Dr. Karl-Gerhard Eick
Vorstand: Dr. Michael H. Wiedmann (Vorsitzender), Claus Momburg
Aufsichtsbehörde: Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht, Graurheindorfer Straße 108, 53117 Bonn und Marie-Curie-Straße 24-28, 60439 Frankfurt am Main, www.bafin.de
Sitz der Gesellschaft: Düsseldorf
Handelsregister des Amtsgerichts Düsseldorf B Nr. 1130
Umsatzsteueridentifikationsnummer: DE 121298843You can also read
