2022 PRECIOUS FORECAST - Precious Metals - Heraeus
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Precious Metals
PRECIOUS FORECAST
2022PRECIOUS FORECAST OUTLOOK 2022 2
2022 Markets normalising in 2022
01 OUTLOOK 2022 The PGM markets are still in the process of and the processing of stockpiled material, and a ramp-up in light-vehicle production as the
returning to normal following last year’s supply the prices retreated in the second half of the availability of semiconductor chips improves
02 FORECAST EUR/USD and demand shocks (Russia’s PGM production year. For iridium and ruthenium, the return to over the course of the year.
shortfall and the automotive semiconductor lower price levels is expected to continue. Price
03 GOLD chip shortage). The coronavirus remains a volatility could be a feature for rhodium as the The platinum market remains substantially
factor, but its effects should gradually recede. market is forecast to be balanced this year, oversupplied on an industrial basis. ETF
04 SILVER Vaccines are much more widely available and so even small shifts in the supply or demand investment shrank as the price retreated
the latest Covid variants appear to be less outlook could influence the price. last year and investors will need to return to
05 PLATINUM dangerous. That should allow a gradual return sustain any rally in the price. Platinum is still
to normal and a rebalancing in the economy The palladium market is also finely balanced, cheap relative to gold and palladium, and high
06 PALLADIUM towards spending on services and away from with supply recovering in Russia and an inflation could result in more investor interest
goods. expected rebound in automotive demand from in real assets.
07 RHODIUM
Gold and silver failed to benefit from the
08 RUTHENIUM return of inflation in 2021. However, inflation
is forecast to remain elevated this year, and Prices indexed to 100 1 Jan 2021
09 IRIDIUM the Federal Reserve and ECB have been slow 350
to react. The ECB is not intending to raise Ru
10 ABOUT HERAEUS interest rates this year, whereas the market has
300
priced in several rate hikes by the Fed. If the Ir
Fed fails to deliver, or the ECB becomes even
250 Au
slightly more hawkish, that could favour the
euro. Gold remains a safe haven and insurance
200 Pt
against policy errors, and the price could have
a weakening dollar as a tailwind. If that turns Rh
out to be the case, then silver is favoured to
150
outperform gold. Ag
100
The small PGMs’ prices reached record levels Source: Heraeus Precious Metals Pd
in the first half of last year as the impact of 50
processing problems in South Africa continued Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
to be felt. However, liquidity improved with the 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
recovery of refined production in South AfricaPRECIOUS FORECAST FORECAST – EUR/USD 3
2022 A reversal to euro strength is possible
01 OUTLOOK 2022 The US dollar may have limited upside from coronavirus restrictions have also become in March and a two thirds chance of a rate rise
current levels. The dollar spent last year trading more severe in some Eurozone countries than in the same month predicted by the futures
02 FORECAST EUR/USD between 1.25 and 1.05 to the euro for a in the US, which will have a further negative market. The ECB is ending PEPP purchases in
seventh consecutive year. It was a year in which economic impact. However, this should be March, but the APP continues and the ECB has
2021 2022 the dollar gradually strengthened, and this priced in to the exchange rate already, and it is resolutely stuck by its plan for no rate rises this
shifted speculative traders’ foreign exchange easier for the Eurozone and euro to surprise to year. If the ECB starts to move somewhat faster,
Avg. 1.19 Forecast: positions from being short the dollar in January the upside when expectations are low. that would be supportive for the euro.
to near neutral by the end of December.
High 1.23 High 1.26
Speculative positions tend to become net long Dollar index & speculative FX positions
$bn
Speculative foreign exchange futures positions
Low 1.12 Low 1.08 the dollar before the period of dollar strength -30
Specs' net FX position, dollar index weighted (inverted)
105 are signalling limited upside for the dollar. The
Dollar index (rhs)
ends. This suggests that while the dollar could -20 100 situation at the start of 2022 is the opposite
Change +5% strengthen further in the short term, a reversal -10
95 of that at the beginning of 2021. Speculative
to a stronger euro is likely in the next few 0
90
futures positions are almost neutral on the
85
months. 10
dollar, having been quite short the dollar at
80
03 GOLD 20
the start of 2021. During the year, the dollar
75
EUR/USD exchange rate
30
Source: SFA (Oxford), Bloomberg
70
strengthened and the speculative position
04 SILVER 1.40
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 against the dollar was reduced. Turning points
2022F range
1.26 have typically occurred when the speculative
05 PLATINUM 1.20
Higher inflation in the US could weaken the positioning in FX futures is net long the dollar.
dollar. In the US, the CPI reached 7.0% year- That leaves a little room for further dollar
06 PALLADIUM 1.00
1.08 on-year in December. Meanwhile, Eurozone strength in the near term but that could reverse
inflation (MUICP) hit 5.0% year-on-year in by mid-year.
07 RHODIUM 0.80
Source: SFA (Oxford), Bloomberg December, while in Germany the CPI was 5.3%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 year-on-year. Typically, countries with higher Overall, the euro is favoured to strengthen
08 RUTHENIUM inflation see their currencies weaken against against the US dollar, trading in a range
US economic strength should be priced in. IMF those countries with lower inflation. On an between 1.08 and 1.26 as it has done for the
09 IRIDIUM forecasts for US GDP growth in 2022 moved inflation differential basis, higher inflation in last seven years. Neither inflation nor economic
higher as 2021 progressed to 5.2%, whereas the US favours the euro. growth is sufficiently skewed to one region
10 ABOUT HERAEUS economic growth forecasts for the Eurozone over the other to suggest a move out of the
were only upgraded in the first half of the year The ECB is lagging behind the Fed and other established range, but sentiment is currently
(4.3%). That leaves the US economy looking central banks in tightening monetary policy. more favourable towards the dollar which leaves
more robust than the Eurozone, which would The Fed has become about as hawkish as it room for the euro to surprise to the upside.
support a stronger dollar. During the winter, can get, with asset purchases on track to endPRECIOUS FORECAST FORECAST – GOLD 4
2022 Ongoing inflation and a weaker dollar to support the gold price
01 OUTLOOK 2022 Inflation risk is positive for gold. The Fed Dollar strength may fade, supporting a higher price. A marginal new record could be possible
and ECB are a long way behind the curve in gold price. Speculative positions in currencies for mine production this year and with robust
02 FORECAST EUR/USD combating inflation. In the US, inflation was vs. the dollar are marginally net short the dollar prices expected in 2022, recycling is likely to
7.0% in December and in the Eurozone it was and close to becoming net long. This usually be somewhat higher.
03 GOLD 5.0%. The Fed is now moving as fast as it can precedes a change in trend. Near term, the
to reduce asset purchases before moving to dollar could strengthen further but the trend Investment demand will need to pick up to
2021 2022 raise interest rates, but that first rate rise is still looks likely to change in 2022. lift the gold price. Concerns about inflation,
several months away. Meanwhile, the ECB is geopolitics or the overvaluation and potential
Avg. $1,803/oz Forecast: reducing, but not ending, its asset purchases Central banks are likely to continue adding volatility of other assets could see safe-haven
and expects inflation to come down, and so is gold to their reserves. In 2021, more than demand for gold increase. Stock markets in
High $1,952/oz High $2,120/oz
not predicting a rate increase in 2022. 400 t of gold was added to reserves, a the US and Europe are at, or near, all-time
Low $1,688/oz Low $1,700/oz significant increase over a very low 2020 highs and valuations are very high compared
Real interest rates are likely to remain negative. total. However, purchases in 2022 may not to history. On top of which, bond yields are
Change -7% With a slow and steady outlook for rate rises be as high because around half of that gain still very low, so it would require only a small
in the US, real interest rates will remain firmly appeared to be large, one-off purchases from increase in yields to inflict capital losses on
negative. Even as some base effects reduce Brazil, Hungary and Thailand. bond holders. In real terms, inflation is already
04 SILVER year-on-year inflation comparisons, ongoing causing losses. Negative real interest rates and
supply chain issues mean inflation is likely Jewellery demand is expected to improve dollar weakness are expected to support the
05 PLATINUM to remain well above the Fed’s 2% target. somewhat, following a substantial recovery in gold price. Gold is forecast to trade in a range
Therefore, real interest rates should remain 2021. Chinese jewellery demand more or less between $2,120/oz and $1,700/oz this year.
06 PALLADIUM negative which is usually an environment in recovered to pre-pandemic levels last year, but
which gold performs well. economic growth is predicted to slow this year
07 RHODIUM and that could impact consumer spending. The
Gold price 2022F range outlook is brighter for India. Indian jewellery
$/oz
08 RUTHENIUM 2,200 $2,120/oz demand did not recover fully last year but could
2,000 do so this year as strong economic growth is
09 IRIDIUM 1,800
anticipated as the impact of the pandemic
1,600 $1,700/oz
1,400
recedes.
10 ABOUT HERAEUS 1,200
1,000 Total supply is forecast to edge higher this
800
Source: Heraeus Precious Metals
year. Mine output is expected to have hit a new
600
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 record in 2021, but that gain was mostly offset
by a drop in recycled gold owing to the lowerPRECIOUS FORECAST FORECAST – SILVER 5
2022 Solid industrial demand and continued investor interest
01 OUTLOOK 2022 Silver industrial demand is set to increase. smartphone production is forecast to reach 660 strongly this year as the impact of the pandemic
Double-digit growth in solar photovoltaic (PV) million units, a share of 47.5% in the overall lessens, further recovery is anticipated for
02 FORECAST EUR/USD installations is predicted for 2022. Installations smartphone market. In China, 5G smartphone jewellery and silverware demand.
are projected to surpass 200 GW for the first penetration is estimated to have now surpassed
03 GOLD time, only five years after the 100 GW level 80%, so manufacturers are expected to be Silver is forecast to trade in a range between
was reached. Installations in key markets shifting their focus to other regional markets, $32/oz and $20/oz, outperforming gold. The
04 SILVER such as China, India, the US and Europe such as the US and Europe. Electronic demand silver price spent 2021 consolidating after
are all expected to expand in 2022. The associated with the automotive industry is also making a high in February amid an attempted
2021 2022 highest growth is coming from the distributed forecast to rise modestly this year as the impact short squeeze by retail investors. Surprisingly,
generation segment (residential, commercial of the semiconductor chip shortage lessens and the rise in inflation failed to ignite a rally
Avg. $25.13/oz Forecast: and industrial), with rising module costs having global light-vehicle production rebounds. in silver (or gold), even with strong investor
seemingly very little impact on PV’s appeal. interest. Inflation is likely to remain above
High $29.45/oz High $32.00/oz
That is despite supply chain constraints Silver mine supply is predicted to slip in 2022 the Fed and ECB’s targets as the reduction in
Low $21.70/oz Low $20.00/oz (particularly for polysilicon) which are likely to and return to the downward trend that was asset purchases is delaying any rise in interest
continue to be a bottleneck for the PV market temporarily reversed by a post-Covid rebound rates (the ECB may not lift rates at all), and
Change -17% until new planned capacity ramps up from last year. Mine production has been declining investors are expected to add to their holdings
2023, and also policy uncertainty in China. since 2016 and despite rising demand and as inflation and negative real interest rates will
However, the acceleration of the global energy high prices, there is limited opportunity for remain a concern. Speculative positioning in
05 PLATINUM sector’s shift from fossil fuel-based production new supply as the majority of silver is mined silver in the futures market has fallen back,
and consumption to renewable sources is still as a by-product (of gold and base metals). leaving the potential for more upside if traders
06 PALLADIUM expected to see solar PV continue to record Production levels could also be impacted by move back into silver.
strong year-on-year growth, thus supporting ongoing geopolitical risks in South America
07 RHODIUM silver demand. during 2022. Incentivised by high prices, Silver price
$/oz 2022F range
secondary silver supply is expected to grow 35 $32/oz
08 RUTHENIUM Electronic and electrical silver demand will again this year, making up the supply shortfall 30
benefit from a post-Covid recovery in global that would exist from mined production alone. 25
09 IRIDIUM smartphone sales this year, as well as the 20
$20/oz
15
continued roll-out of 5G and the falling cost of Demand for silver jewellery and silverware is
10
10 ABOUT HERAEUS 5G handsets. Annual smartphone shipments are expected to return to nearer pre-pandemic 5
estimated to reach 1.39 billion units in 2022, levels. India is the largest market for silverware 0
Source: Heraeus Precious Metals
growing 3.8% year-on-year, driven by the usual and silver jewellery fabrication and the 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
device replacement cycle as well as increased pandemic restricted the rebound in demand
demand from emerging markets. In 2022, 5G last year. With India’s economy forecast to growPRECIOUS FORECAST FORECAST – PLATINUM 6
2022 More investor interest is needed to shrink the surplus
01 OUTLOOK 2022 The industrial platinum market is predicted be flat or slightly lower owing to the knock-on Global industrial demand is forecast to
to have a surplus of over 1 moz once again in impact of the semiconductor chip shortage on expand by 4% in 2022. Most industrial uses
02 FORECAST EUR/USD 2022. However, that is lower than in 2021 as the second-hand car market. The lack of new are expected to see modest increases in
the trend has now shifted to a narrowing surplus light vehicles for sale has resulted in much demand, led by ongoing capacity expansion
03 GOLD with demand growing faster than supply. Overall stronger demand for second-hand vehicles, in the glass industry and increasing silicone
investment demand had a relatively poor year particularly in the second half of 2021. This, production in China. Petroleum is the only
04 SILVER in 2021, as a fall in ETF holdings offset much in turn, has resulted in fewer old vehicles being sector that is predicted to see lower platinum
of the gain from bar and coin sales. Stronger scrapped. New car production is forecast to be demand this year. Although petroleum demand
05 PLATINUM investment in ETFs will be needed to help lift much higher this year, but the second-hand remains robust, there were significant capacity
the price this year. Platinum remains cheap market is likely to remain tight. expansions in 2021, some of which had
2021 2022 compared to gold and, with inflation running been delayed by the pandemic from 2020,
hot, real assets such as platinum may benefit Global automotive platinum demand is which resulted in particularly strong demand.
Avg. $1,098/oz Forecast: from renewed investor interest. predicted to grow by 14% to almost 3.0 moz. Hydrogen economy-related platinum demand
The majority of that growth is coming from from fuel cells and electrolysers is set to
High $1,309/oz High $1,300/oz
Primary platinum supply is expected to increase increased light-vehicle sales combined with continue to grow rapidly from a relatively small
Low $910/oz Low $850/oz by 4% to 6.4 moz in 2022. In South Africa, the wider roll-out of autocatalysts with higher base.
refined output is forecast to be slightly higher platinum loadings for gasoline light vehicles.
Change -14% than in 2021 and is again boosted by the In 2021, light-vehicle production was severely Jewellery demand is estimated to increase
refining of some stock that built up owing to hampered by a lack of semiconductor chips modestly this year, despite declines in China
earlier processing problems. There has been and was only ~1 million units higher than in and North America. After a strong recovery
06 PALLADIUM some recent M&A activity amongst South 2020. This year, even with the lingering effect in 2021, North American platinum jewellery
African PGM miners, but this is not likely to of the chip shortage, light-vehicle production is demand is expected to dip this year. China
07 RHODIUM influence PGM production this year. Mine expected to rise by over 8 million units. also saw a rebound in demand that is not
output is also expanding in Zimbabwe, and likely to be maintained this year. However,
08 RUTHENIUM Russian production returns to normal following Diesel’s market share in passenger cars is higher demand is forecast for India, Japan and
the mine flooding incident that impacted two forecast to continue to decline in Europe which Western Europe which more than offsets those
09 IRIDIUM mines early last year. erodes platinum demand. However, while declines.
global heavy-duty vehicle (HDV) production is
10 ABOUT HERAEUS Secondary platinum supply is projected to predicted to be little changed this year from
be slightly higher this year than last year as 2021, with HDVs now having to meet China VI
jewellery recycling is forecast to be moderately legislation, higher loadings are expected to lift
higher. However, autocatalyst recycling could platinum demand from this segment.PRECIOUS FORECAST FORECAST – PLATINUM 7
2022 More investor interest is needed to shrink the surplus
01 OUTLOOK 2022 Investment demand was modest in 2021 owing
to a 262 koz fall in ETF holdings which offset
02 FORECAST EUR/USD a large part of the demand for coins and bars.
Global ETF holdings hit a record of almost
03 GOLD 4 moz in May but subsequently declined as the
price slipped back over the remainder of the
04 SILVER year.
05 PLATINUM The platinum price is forecast to trade between
$1,300/oz and $850/oz. The industrial market
2021 2022 balance is still projected to have a large
surplus, so investment demand will need to
Avg. $1,098/oz Forecast: improve to help lift the price. Platinum remains
cheap compared to gold and palladium and if
High $1,309/oz High $1,300/oz
the gold price rallies as anticipated, then the
Low $910/oz Low $850/oz platinum price is expected to move higher too.
Change -14%
Platinum price
$/oz 2022F range
1,400 $1,300/oz
1,300
06 PALLADIUM 1,200
1,100
1,000
07 RHODIUM 900
800
$850/oz
700
08 RUTHENIUM 600
500
Source: Heraeus Precious Metals
400
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
09 IRIDIUM
10 ABOUT HERAEUSPRECIOUS FORECAST FORECAST – PALLADIUM 8
2022 Market close to balance
01 OUTLOOK 2022 The palladium market is forecast to have slightly eroded by the wider roll-out of gasoline this year. South African supply is again boosted
a very small surplus this year. Automotive autocatalysts which have some platinum by the processing of the remaining stock that
02 FORECAST EUR/USD demand is expected to grow strongly, as light- substituting for some palladium. In addition, built up owing to some processing problems in
vehicle production jumps after the worst of the the rapid increase in BEV production has 2020.
03 GOLD semiconductor chip shortage is over. Offsetting removed some of the upside for automotive
that is the recovery in primary supply from palladium demand by taking market share from Secondary supply is projected to increase as
04 SILVER Russia, along with growth in other regions, and gasoline vehicles, but automotive demand is greater numbers of light vehicles are scrapped.
higher palladium recycling. However, if the still forecast to be at a record level this year. The historical tightening of emissions standards
05 PLATINUM second-hand car market remains tight, then in the US and Europe is also resulting in a
secondary supply could disappoint which would Palladium’s industrial demand is predicted gradual increase in the PGM loadings on the
06 PALLADIUM move the market into deficit. to decline by 6% this year. This represents spent autocatalysts. However, with the chip
a resumption of the long-term contraction in shortage still having an impact on new car
2021 2022 Palladium price
industrial demand. In 2021, global industrial production, demand in the second-hand car
$/oz demand was little changed from 2020 owing market could remain stronger than normal
3,500
Avg. $2,405/oz Forecast: to significant expansion of chemical capacity which could limit to some extent the number of
3,000 2022F range
utilising palladium catalysts in China, which vehicles being scrapped.
High $3,000/oz High $2,250/oz 2,500 $2,250/oz
2,000 is not expected to be repeated this year. The
Low $1,580/oz Low $1,400/oz 1,500 high palladium price has resulted in thrifting The palladium price is expected to remain
1,000 $1,400/oz and substitution of palladium in electrical volatile this year as the market is finely
Change -20% 500 components. It has influenced dental demand balanced and any events which change supply
Source: Heraeus Precious Metals
0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
as well, where, in addition, palladium-based or demand could shift the market further into
alloys have also lost out to more cosmetically surplus or into deficit. The palladium price
07 RHODIUM appealing alternatives. is forecast to trade between $2,250/oz and
Automotive palladium demand is estimated $1,400/oz.
08 RUTHENIUM to reach a record 8.5 moz this year. Light- Primary palladium production is forecast to
vehicle production is predicted to surge by increase by 7% this year. Russian production
09 IRIDIUM over 8 million units as the semiconductor chip has recovered following the mine flooding
shortage is mostly at an end. That said, lack incident that impacted output last year.
10 ABOUT HERAEUS of chips is still expected to be a constraint However, scheduled smelter maintenance is
and light-vehicle production is not likely to expected to restrict refined output to around
recover to 2019 levels. The upside to palladium 2.7 moz. South Africa, Zimbabwe and North
demand from recovering light-vehicle sales is America are all predicted to increase productionPRECIOUS FORECAST FORECAST – RHODIUM 9
2022 A balanced rhodium market in 2022
01 OUTLOOK 2022 The rhodium market is forecast to be balanced Secondary supply is predicted to grow by 4%, The rhodium price is estimated to range
this year, as recovering automotive demand is owing to greater numbers of vehicles being between $22,000/oz and $7,500/oz. With the
02 FORECAST EUR/USD set to rise more than supply. The production scrapped. However, with the semiconductor market forecast to be balanced, any changes to
and processing problems that resulted in a chip shortage holding back new car sales, supply or demand could result in sharp price
03 GOLD very tight market during the first half of 2021 second-hand cars have been more sought after movements. Risks to supply could come from
have been overcome, and with increasing metal and it is possible that fewer will be scrapped underperforming recycling, and the three largest
04 SILVER availability the price retreated significantly from than anticipated. South African PGM mining companies will start
its record high. With improved liquidity, further wage negotiations with the mining unions later
05 PLATINUM price normalisation is anticipated this year, but Automotive rhodium demand is projected this year which does leave open the possibility
the market is finely balanced so price volatility to exceed 1 moz for the first time this year, of a strike. Meanwhile, rhodium demand is
06 PALLADIUM could remain a feature. resulting in automotive demand reaching dependent on the automotive industry having
89% of total consumption. Light-vehicle sufficient chips available to meet the higher
07 RHODIUM Primary rhodium supply is expected to expand production is predicted to jump by more than light-vehicle production expected this year.
by 3% this year. South African production has 8 million units, as the chip shortage that
2021 2022 recovered to pre-Covid levels and the processing severely restricted production in 2021 is mostly
of stock adds a small additional amount of overcome. This, combined with the slightly
Avg. $21,169/oz Forecast: rhodium to the total. Russian rhodium output higher loadings required to meet tightening
is also expected to be modestly higher this emissions standards, is forecast to result in
High $30,950/oz High $22,000/oz
year with the recovery of production from the automotive demand escalating by 17% this
Low $12,950/oz Low $7,500/oz two mines that suffered from flooding in early year.
2021.
Change -15% Rhodium industrial demand is forecast to
Rhodium price
increase by 3% this year. While price-induced
$/oz thrifting of rhodium in glass applications has
35,000
08 RUTHENIUM mostly run its course, a modest further decline
30,000 2022F range
25,000
in glass demand is predicted. However, this
$22,000/oz
09 IRIDIUM 20,000
is more than offset by growth in chemical
15,000 requirements, as demand from the nitric acid
10 ABOUT HERAEUS 10,000 industry picks up after some price-induced
5,000 $7,500/oz substitution last year, and a small gain in other
0
Source: Heraeus Precious Metals
end-uses.
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022PRECIOUS FORECAST FORECAST – RUTHENIUM 10
2022 Supply growth matches demand growth
01 OUTLOOK 2022 The ruthenium market is projected to be in The high price in 2021 resulted from
surplus this year. Supply is forecast to rise processing problems in South Africa which
02 FORECAST EUR/USD by around 2%, as production problems in tightened the market significantly at a time
Russia have been overcome and some stock is when demand was expanding. With refined
03 GOLD processed in South Africa, and match growth in output back on track in South Africa and
demand. improving metal availability, the price spent
04 SILVER the second half of last year trending lower. The
Refined ruthenium supply is forecast to ruthenium price is forecast to trade between
05 PLATINUM increase modestly this year. Production from $600/oz and $250/oz this year.
South Africa is boosted by the processing
06 PALLADIUM of some stock that built up as a result of Ruthenium price
processing problems. Russian output is $/oz
1,000
07 RHODIUM recovering now that the mines that were flooded 900
2022F range
800
are back in operation, and production from 700 $600/oz
08 RUTHENIUM Zimbabwe is also expected to grow slightly this 600
500
year. 400
2021 2022 300
200 $250/oz
Ruthenium electrical demand is holding steady. 100
Avg. $608/oz Forecast: Hard disk drive (HDD) technology continues to 0
Source: Heraeus Precious Metals
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
advance and increase the data density on the
High $945/oz High $600/oz
disks. HDDs continue to have a price advantage
Low $295/oz Low $250/oz over solid state devices and, with data storage
requirements climbing rapidly for cloud services
Change +95% and other applications, near-term demand
looks secure. Heat-assisted magnetic recording
(no Ru) has been developed and units are
09 IRIDIUM being sold, but it is not yet available for the
mass market. Other existing technologies are
10 ABOUT HERAEUS being improved which is extending the use of
ruthenium.PRECIOUS FORECAST FORECAST – IRIDIUM 11
2022 Price to retreat further on improved market liquidity
01 OUTLOOK 2022 The iridium market is predicted to have a small 5G is taking off and supporting electrical
surplus this year, but the surplus is expected demand for iridium. Iridium crucibles are used
02 FORECAST EUR/USD to shrink slightly from last year as demand to make lithium tantalate for surface acoustic
growth outpaces supply growth. South African wave (SAW) filters. China has the world’s largest
03 GOLD production is again expected to be lifted slightly 5G network and significant 5G smartphone
by the remaining stockpiled material that built sales but produces only a fraction of the SAW
04 SILVER up in 2020 being processed. Russia’s output is filters it needs for domestic 5G smartphone
set to recover this year, with the two mines that production. The Chinese authorities want to
05 PLATINUM suffered from flooding early last year now back improve the domestic supply situation so there
in production. In addition, output in Zimbabwe is likely to be an increase in production of
06 PALLADIUM is predicted to edge up. lithium tantalate in China. Outside of China, 5G
smartphone sales are expected to grow rapidly.
07 RHODIUM Stronger demand is anticipated, in particular in
automotive and hydrogen uses. Other end-uses Last year, the iridium price reached a record
08 RUTHENIUM are forecast to experience flat to slightly higher high owing to processing problems in South
requirements. The rebound in automotive Africa that restricted refined metal availability.
09 IRIDIUM production this year is expected to result in Once they had been resolved and market
higher iridium demand for spark plugs. Iridium liquidity improved, the price began to fall back.
2021 2022 use in the hydrogen economy (with platinum With a surplus market anticipated this year, the
in electrode coatings) in proton exchange price is forecast to trade between $5,000/oz
Avg. $5,437/oz Forecast: membrane (PEM) electrolysers is set to and $2,500/oz.
increase sharply this year, although it remains a
High $6,750/oz High $5,000/oz
relatively small part of total demand. Numerous Iridium price
$/oz
Low $3,050/oz Low $2,500/oz electrolyser projects have been announced, 8,000
although not all utilise PEM technology. PEM 7,000
2022F range
Change +36% electrolyser technology has a market share of 6,000 $5,000/oz
5,000
about a third, but that share is expanding.
4,000
3,000
10 ABOUT HERAEUS 2,000
$2,500/oz
1,000
Source: Heraeus Precious Metals
0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022PRECIOUS FORECAST ABOUT HERAEUS 12
2022
01 OUTLOOK 2022 Learn more about important trends in the precious metals markets on a weekly basis with our Disclaimer
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02 FORECAST EUR/USD the basis that the recipient is reasonably believed to be a
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03 GOLD intended for the use of consumers.
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05 PLATINUM not provided as part of a contractual relationship. It is not and
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06 PALLADIUM Phone: +852 2773 1733 advice on the merits of making any investment.
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07 RHODIUM This report has been compiled using information obtained
from sources that Heraeus and SFA (Oxford) Ltd (“SFA”)
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