The Hindu Editorial Analysis 29th January, 2021

The Hindu Editorial Analysis 29th January, 2021

A political player who is rising, but is still no
Lenin
Relation with syllabus: GS-2-IR
Context: Alexei Navalny, can he lead to a regime change in Russia? What will be its implication in
India?

Who is Alexi Navalny ?

   •   He is a Russian opposition leader, politician, lawyer, and anti-corruption activist.

   •   His political career started with the liberal opposition party, Yabloko, in the early 2000s. He
       subsequently broke away to form his own nationalist group. His anti-corruption campaigns
       began in the late 2000s when as a shareholder of large companies such as Rosneft, Gazprom,
       he tried to seek greater transparency about their financial dealings.

   •   He came to international prominence by organizing demonstrations and running for office to
       advocate reforms against corruption in Russia, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Putin's
       government.

   •   Navalny has been described as "the man Vladimir Putin fears most" by The Wall Street Journal.
       Putin avoids directly referring to Navalny by name.

He was poisoned!!

   •   On August 20 last year with Mr. Navalny fell ill on a flight to Moscow.

   •   His flight made an emergency landing at Omsk where Mr. Navalny was initially hospitalised and
       treated.

   •    He was, at the request of his wife, taken to Germany where he completed his treatment and
       had a miraculous recovery from what has emerged to be a near lethal poisoning.

   •   Meanwhile, the German government felt that it had enough evidence to accuse the Russian
       security services of poisoning Mr. Navalny. The Germans claim that he was struck with the now

infamous Novichok poison, leading to the European Union imposing sanctions on six Russian
       officials.

   •   Russia denies the accusations.

   •   The latest instalment of this story was Mr. Navalny’s detention on arrival from Berlin (January
       17, 2021) and the subsequent country-wide public protests on Saturday (January 23).

   •   The charges against Mr. Navalny, include an old case in which he received a suspended
       sentence and a new case of fraudulent use of public money. Mr. Navalny denies all charges.

Public Protests:

   •   The protests demanding his release were widespread, occurring in every major city, from the
       Pacific coast to the Baltic Sea(means from east to west); they resulted in about 3,000 people
       being detained and released.

   •   People from various strata and age groups joined the mostly peaceful protest actions.
       Normally, Navalny-related demonstrations attract primarily youth (15-25 years old)

   •   That others joined the protest this time is significant. It is probably a reflection of the deep
       disillusionment with the drop in living standards sparked off by years of Ukraine-related
       sanctions and lower energy prices, and worsened by the pandemic-driven economic
       downturn.

   •   The anti-regime protests expectedly sparked off varying reactions from analysts. Some suggest
       that these are the beginning of serious moves for regime change, while others call them a
       storm in a teacup.

   •   Surprisingly, the most pro-government TV anchor, Dmitry Kiselyov, chose to compare Mr.
       Navalny’s return from Germany to a similar journey in 1917 in a sealed train by iconic
       Bolshevik leader (Vladimir Ilyich Ulyanov) Lenin.

   •    It is clear that now, Mr. Navalny will have a more prominent role in Russian politics and is
       likely to emerge as the darling of the western media .

challenges in front of him

   •   Unlikely to be the catalyst that will lead to “regime change” in Russia.

   •   His nationalist platform is not currently capable of appealing to all sections of Russian
       society or convincing the political opposition to coalesce around it.

   •    He is simply not in the same league as Mr. Putin and several other leaders but could, for the
       time being, serve as the lightning rod for the people to register their disaffection with the
       regime’s policies.

Implications for India:

   •   While India may not be waiting with bated breath for “regime change” in Russia, it is
       important to recognize that the shadow boxing taking place through Mr. Navalny is an
       indication of serious churn among the Russian elites.

   •   In Russia historically, barring once, change usually begins in the upper echelons of power.

Tempered optimism
Relation with syllabus: GS-3-Disaster Management
Context: Covaxin has been applauded worldwide. So, what should be our vaccination policy ? How
should we proceed ?

Mutations of the virus!!

   •   Genetic mutations of the coronavirus in South Africa, the U.K. and Brazil pose a new worry,
       with implications for those who have avoided infection so far or have recovered after a difficult
       battle.

•   The virus variants have turned the spotlight on second generation vaccines that are expected
       to protect against them but will take time to arrive.

   •   There will be considerable interest in new measures in Europe, where governments now require
       use of masks of N95 or FFP2 standards, to offer higher protection in public places and
       transport.

   •   Germany is to give these free to people over 60 and to vulnerable individuals.

India's case

   •   India’s declining infections have prompted a further relaxation of activity curbs, but there is no
       cause to lower the vigil.

   •   The January 27 guidelines for Surveillance, Containment and Caution also create a window for
       further relaxation of international air travel, but the DGCA has decided to maintain status
       quo on scheduled flights till February end. Full-fledged inter-city rail services await a decision
       too.

   •   Without ready pharmaceutical remedies, citizens and policymakers have to fall back on the
       default toolkit of safe behaviour.

   •    Even with a sizeable population exposed to the virus, as seropositivity surveys show, the spate of
       infections in Kerala and Maharashtra underscores the value of the precautionary principle
       on the road to universal vaccination.