The EV Index from Sophus3 - How ready is the market for Electric Vehicles? January 2020
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The EV Index from Sophus3 How ready is the market for Electric Vehicles? January 2020
The EV Index: How ready is the market for electric vehicles?
Introduction
2020 is being touted as a breakthrough year for Electric Index which we present here for the first time.
Vehicles (EV) when we will - at last - see them achieve
The purpose of the index is to provide an objective
significant sales volume. Although we would welcome
measure of the readiness of the vehicle market to enable
such an outcome, we remain skeptical as to whether it
and encourage the mainstream adoption and ownership
will materialise within the next twelve months on the
of EVs. The index looks at three key areas: consumer
scale some, including car manufacturers’ PR depart-
interest in EVs, the pricing and availability of these cars,
ments, would have us believe is possible.
and the maturity of the necessary infrastructure to allow
The evidence from the vehicle market itself is that whilst an expanding EV fleet to function effectively.
growth rates are encouraging, EV’s overall market share
Only through a clear-eyed understanding and assess-
remains negligible and that consumer interest is still
ment of these drivers of, and barriers to, EV acquisition
firmly focused on conventionally fuelled SUVs.
will interested parties be able to move the electric vehi-
The evidence from our online data is that EV shoppers cle market forward.
remain a small, self-selecting group who arrive in the
market having already decided on an EV purchase. As
yet, buyers of popular ‘volume’ models seldom consider
an EV purchase.
Scott Gairns
To progress EV adoption requires, we believe, more than Managing Director, Sophus
wishful thinking. This is why we have developed the EV London, January 2020.
sophus3.com 2
The EV Index: How ready is the market for electric vehicles?
Contents
1. Executive summary 4
2. The electric vehicle market 5
3. How car buyers are shopping for EVs 10
4. The EV Index from Sophus3 16
sophus3.com 3
The EV Index: How ready is the market for electric vehicles?
1. Executive summary
The market The EV buyer Introducing the EV Index
• Despite a recent increase in sales, Electric Vehicles • Online data shows that under 4% of car buyers • The Sophus3 EV Index provides objective measure-
(EVs) still represent less than 2% of the new car consider an electric vehicle in the ‘Big 5’ markets ment of a market’s ability to enable and encourage
market (compared with 20% in Norway) EV adoption
• New CO2 regulations coming into effect in 2020 are • Those shopping for EVs review almost exclusively • The EV Index measures three elements: consumer
a major driver for car manufacturers to increase their just EV models interest in EVs, the availability and price of EVs, the
EV sales extent of the charging infrastructure to support EV
• Those reviewing popular, conventionally-fuelled cars
use
• Subsidies and government incentives remain key to seldom look at EVs as an alternative
EV adoption: where these are removed or reduced, • The Index is published quarterly to measure progress
• EV shoppers are more hesitant in their behaviour and
demand for EVs is shown to be ‘soft’ towards EV adoption
require more time and information to consider their
• 2020 sees a raft of cheaper EV models being intro- choices • Traffic light coding of each element highlights where
duced which are intended as ‘mass market’ models significant impediments exist
• However, once an EV shopper engages online they
• Conventionally fuelled SUVs however continue to are far more likely to complete an action such as a • The performance of an individual brand can be
dominate and their market share has been increasing test drive request assessed using the same methodology to benchmark
its own progress, either against competitors or the
market as a whole
sophus3.com 4
The EV Index: How ready is the market for electric vehicles?
2. The electric vehicle market
A mountain still to climb
The latest sales figures for electric cars continue to
EV sales in the European market
encourage with the pace of their growth, yet remain so-
bering as they also show the daunting task that remains Even if recent rapid growth is sustained, electrification will take decades
ahead for these vehicles to obtain significant market
share. During the third quarter of 2019, registrations
of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) grew +126% in the
European Union, even so, they barely represented 2% of
all new cars sold1. When we consider that the European
vehicle fleet (all the cars in operation) numbers more
than 300 million2 then the speed of adoption needs to
accelerate, and the overall sales volume of EVs increase
massively, if countries are to meet their targets for CO2
emissions reductions and the replacement of conven-
tionally fuelled cars.
That need has grown more urgent over the course of
2019. The extinction rebellion movement arrived to am-
plify the warnings of scientists that we are on the brink
of an irreversible climate crisis, that threatens unprece-
dented disruption and human suffering.
A growing number of national, regional and local gov-
ernments have declared a climate emergency3. In this
context, road transport is recognised as a major source
of greenhouse gases, but also, more positively, as a sec-
tor where a changeover to alternative fuelled vehicles
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The EV Index: How ready is the market for electric vehicles?
could deliver large cuts in CO2 without affecting much A supply side problem?
valued freedoms of mobility.
For the car industry, reaching those targets and recoup-
Unusually, environmental activists and car manufac- ing their considerable investments, is seen primarily as
turers are pretty much on the same page regarding the an engineering challenge, or a combination of challeng-
need to shift to electric vehicles. In the case of the car es. The industry’s current focus is on battery technology:
industry however this is the result of imminent legislative not only the competition to deliver best-in-class vehicle
restrictions rather than a Damascene conversion to a range, but also to master battery manufacture so as to
‘green’ vision. achieve scale and to reduce costs. The deployment of
solid-state batteries is the industry’s next holy grail7.
From January 2020 new Europe-wide CO2 regulations (Much of the car companies’ current thinking around
for cars and vans come into force4. EV technology is how to create and protect Intellectual
Property from which they can lever advantage, either by
These mandate an average CO2 emission of just 95g/
retaining exclusive access to technical innovations, or, by
km for the 2021 European vehicle fleet. Over the next
profitably licensing them to their competitors.)
decade these limits will get progressively steeper. Car
makers who miss their targets will face fines that run But underpinning this fixation with technology is an
to, potentially, billions of euros.5 Hence the string of an- assumption that has not been really tested. “If you build
credit: Henry Nicholls / Reuters
nouncements by manufacturers over the last 12 months it, they will come” seems to be the engineers’ motto:
of their plans to roll out more electric vehicles, and set- assuming that if they can deliver a well-built electric car
ting ambitious sales targets for these new models. then, as night follows day, droves of buyers will quickly
materialise.
A recent study showed the automotive industry’s huge
and sincere commitment in this area, listing investments
that total more than US$300 billion in EV technology
and plant6.
sophus3.com 6
The EV Index: How ready is the market for electric vehicles?
Or a demand side cess with the largest electric fleet per capita in the world. The evidence from elsewhere is that incentivisation and
In October 2019, 36% of the vehicles bought were pure other governmental intervention in the car market is
challenge? battery vehicles .
9
currently a key driver of adoption, and that without it,
But with pure electric cars at just 2% of the market, demand for electric vehicles remains soft.
Yet what is most obvious about this level of adoption
they remain clearly entrenched within the ‘early adopter’
is that it is being driven by sticks, rather than being led In the UK, for example, sales of Plug-in Hybrid Electric
phase of the classic product acceptance curve. The in-
by carrots. Tax differentials mean that a €22K gasoline Vehicles (PHEVs) fell steeply following the government’s
dications are that the mass market remains on the other
powered Volkswagen Golf ends up costing the Norwe- decision in October 2018 to, in future, exclude them
side of a chasm of consumer scepticism8. What is per-
gian car buyer €34K. This makes the tax-free e-Golf, the from the plug-in car grant. Year-to-date sales of PHEVs
haps most worrying about car brands’ current strategy,
electric model, at €33k the more attractive choice10. in the UK are down -27% as of October 2019, whilst
laid out in countless upbeat press briefings, is that there
sales of pure plug-ins, which still receive the subsidy, are
does not seem to be any recognition of such a chasm, The German government for one, understands these dy-
up 125%11.
never mind an inkling of how it is to be crossed. namics of the fledgling EV market and recently increased
the incentive for EV purchase from €4,000 to €6,000. (In Looking further afield we saw the new energy vehicle
The evidence from the market is that future demand for
this case the subsidies seem to be as much an instru- market in China fall 34% in September of this year as
the next generation of electric cars reaching the show-
ment of industrial as of environmental policy with the subsidies were realigned12.
rooms in the coming months can be far from assumed.
aim of assisting the German car industry to achieve
Norway remains the poster child for electric vehicle suc- dominance as the EV market matures.)
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The EV Index: How ready is the market for electric vehicles?
The summit or bust!
Nevertheless a number of manufacturers remain con-
vinced that the time is right to seek the mass market for
EVs and are lining up new products at lower price points
with the intention of achieving volume sales. (All prices
quoted include government grants where these apply.)
The Mini Electric (top left) launches in March 2020 at a
price of €32.5k in Germany and of £24.4k in the UK.
Volkswagen has explicitly likened the launch of its ID.3
Mini Electric Volkswagen ID.3 model (top right) to an ‘assault’ on the market. The
company expects an ambitious 40% of its sales to be of
battery vehicles by 2030. (Volkswagen group sold 10.9
million vehicles in 2018.) Again, the ID.3 is promised at a
price of “under €30,000” in Europe.
First deliveries of the Opel/Vauxhall Corsa-e (bottom
left) are expected in the Spring, again at a sub -€30k
price point. In the Summer, the Honda e (bottom right)
also enters the fray.
Time will soon tell whether consumer curiosity in EVs
translates into sales and whether lower pricing, and the
engineering improvements that have been achieved, will
Opel/Vauxhall Corsa-e Honda e
conquer the barriers to EV purchase.
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The EV Index: How ready is the market for electric vehicles?
Consumer interest is CO2 emissions. The International Energy Agency (IEA)
warned recently, “If consumers’ appetite for SUVs con-
currently elsewhere tinues to grow at a similar pace seen in the last decade,
The evidence from nearly every car market, both in SUVs would add nearly 2 million barrels a day in global
Europe and globally, is that consumer preferences are oil demand by 2040, offsetting the savings from nearly
still focused elsewhere, and that EVs are not high in their 150 million electric cars.”15
consideration list. Demand the world over is for SUVs:
At this point in time we can therefore have little con-
large, small and in between. In the US half of the cars
fidence that the market for electric vehicles will bloom
sold this year will be SUVs — a doubling of their market
on consumer demand alone. Manufacturers face the
share since 200813.
inescapable tyranny of the adoption curve, and to climb
Year-to-date in the ‘Big 5’ European markets, SUV sales it may require much more than clever engineering.
have risen yet again to take 38% market share . 14
The consequence of this shift in taste has had a disas-
trous impact on ambitions to curtail road transport’s
‘SUV Madness’ — despite a backlash in some markets
on safety and environmental grounds, the demand for
off-road vehicles shows no sign of abating.16
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The EV Index: How ready is the market for electric vehicles?
3. How car buyers are shopping for EVs
Sales from the car market gives a fairly blunt picture Online data from car brand and automotive publisher
of the current low level of consumer uptake of electric websites allows deeper insights into the car buying jour-
vehicles. However, it tells us little about the number of ney, the numbers of people reviewing EVs as a purchase
people who may have considered such a purchase, or option, and the points at which their interest may stall.
at what point and for what reason they may have have This data is unique to Sophus3 through its management
rejected an EV from their consideration list. of eDataXchange (eDX), a sector-wide, collaborative
project through which car brands share data from their
Recent surveys of car buyers by our colleagues at the
digital platforms so as to understand the car buyers’
Lead Agency confirm that the majority of those in-mar-
online journey and benchmark their own performance.
ket are not ill disposed towards EVs. When asked
directly, “Are you interested in an EV when you consider The inclusiveness of the eDX data set provides a
your next vehicle purchase?” nearly 60% respond- more complete picture of consumer interest than can
ed positively. The number who said ‘yes’ increasing be gained from survey-based research. In the last 12
amongst shoppers for premium brands. Those consider- months for example, over 1.7 billion visits to car web-
ing leasing a car were even more open to trying an EV, sites and 30 million hours of consumer interactions have
with 66% expressing interest. been analyzed.
The following charts provide some high level insights
into the current state of online interest in EVs.
sophus3.com 10The EV Index: How ready is the market for electric vehicles? Online interest in EVs Website visits to EV models as a remains small: less than a percentage of all model visits third of their audience will move towards purchase The doughnut graphs show the percentage of visits to Electric Vehicle model pages on car brand sites relative to the number of visits to all models (the size of each doughnut shows the relative size of each country’s online audience). The level of interest, as we can see is relatively small in the ‘Big 5’ markets, averaging just over 4%. However, this does suggest that almost three times as many people are reviewing EVs online compared to the percentage who end up buying them (sales of EVs in the first three quarters of 2018 made up just 1.3% of all car sales in these markets). The conclusion is that 2 out of 3 people who consider an EV are currently rejecting that choice. Only in Norway is there a sizable level of online inter- est in EV models. In fact here the relationship between online interest and sales outcomes moves in the other direction. Registrations of pure EVs in Norway topped 40% during the first 9 months of 2019, whilst online interest in EVs was just 20% of visits to all model pages. sophus3.com 11
The EV Index: How ready is the market for electric vehicles? Interest in EVs appears to Website visits to Top 5 EVs showing exist within a silo their most viewed competitors The anonymised eDX models visit data allows us to infer which other car models have also interested visitors to a specific EV model. When we look at the Top 5 most visited EVs in the UK market, represented in the graphic right, and the most popular other models that visitors to these pages also viewed, it is clear that the audience’s interest is pretty exclusively focused on EV models. 18 of the 25 EV competitors are themselves EVs, whilst more than 80% of the shared visits went to other EV model. The conclusion is that those researching EVs are very specifically pursuing a choice they have already taken. There is little sign of a more general audience consid- ering an EV as one possibility from a broader group of vehicles. sophus3.com 12
The EV Index: How ready is the market for electric vehicles?
The buyers of mainstream, Visitors to Fiesta model to the Fiesta who also visited an EV increasing to 4% of
the total. However, the highest placed EV was still way
volume cars do not consider % who also viewed an EV model down in 27th place in the ranking of traffic from the
EV models Fiesta page to other cars.
Earlier in the year we analysed traffic to the model page This pattern of traffic, visible for most volume cars,
for the UK’s biggest selling new car, the Ford Fiesta, to confirms the view that EVs are in the silo we described,
see what other purchase choices visitors to its model and are not, as yet, being perceived or explored as an
page considered. We found that of the 800,000 visitors alternative to mainstream cars.
to the page, only 3% had visited or went on to visit an
EV model. Repeating the analysis in October, we mea-
sured a slight improvement, with the number of visitors
sophus3.com 13The EV Index: How ready is the market for electric vehicles?
EV buyers look for informa- Average time spent on car website Visitors who start an online
tion and reassurance and model pages engagement
are slow to engage
The following graphs combine to give a snapshot of the
differences in behaviour between the EV shopper and
those looking at petrol and diesel models. The findings
are based on visit data to all the ICE and EV model pag-
es tracked through eDataXchange in the ‘Big 5’ Europe-
an markets from January to November 2019.
Those reviewing an EV spend considerably longer on the When a visitor goes to certain pages on car brand
model page than they do for other types of car. This sug- websites it is seen as indicating a more serious intent.
gests the consumer’s need to find out more information Such pages include the vehicle configurator, a test drive
about this new type of vehicle. (It could also indicate that request page or a dealer locator map. Analysis of traffic
the information that is available is more difficult for them shows that whilst 11% of those reviewing ICE cars will
to understand and absorb.) move to one of these ‘engagement’ areas, EV visitors
are more hesitant. Only 7% will click on an engagement
destination.
sophus3.com 14The EV Index: How ready is the market for electric vehicles?
Visitors who begin a test drive Visitors who complete a test drive The previous examples show the insights that digital
data can provide into car buyer behaviour. Sophus3 col-
request request lects more than 60 EV customer insight metrics. These
can be viewed at the market, brand and even model
level. As we have seen, the data can help car brands
understand the differences in their EV buyer’s journey
and identify key points where they can better engage
with and assist their customers.
ICE shoppers are more relaxed about considering a Whilst the overall number of people visiting a car brand
test drive of a new car whereas the EV shopper again site who go on to request a test drive is inevitably
appears more hesitant. However, once the EV shopper minuscule, the difference in EV shopper behaviour is
starts a test drive request they are far more likely to actually quite dramatic: whilst they are 37% less likely to
follow through and submit that request (see figure on start a test drive inquiry, once they have, they are 21%
right). more likely to complete it.
sophus3.com 15The EV Index: How ready is the market for electric vehicles?
4. The EV Index from Sophus3
Tracking progress within the electric vehicle market
The purpose of the Sophus3 EV Index is to provide an
objective measure of the readiness of the vehicle market
Sophus3 makes the Index available for free to the many
and varied interest groups following and promoting the
What goes into the index?
to enable and encourage the mainstream adoption and growth of the electric vehicle sector, be they vehicle The Sophus3 EV Index is formed of three pillars mea-
ownership of electric vehicles (EVs). manufacturers, environmentalists, marketeers or govern- suring distinct factors that help or hinder electric vehicle
mental agencies. adoption. First of these is the consumer appetite to buy
The EV Index is published quarterly. Initially it will electric, the second is the capability of the automotive
measure the European ‘Big 5’ markets and benchmark In that spirit of openness we welcome comments and companies to supply those cars, and the third is the
these with each other, as well as the Norwegian market feedback, as well as suggestions as to how the index availability of suitable infrastructure to allow an ex-
which has the highest level of EV adoption globally. The could be enhanced and used more effectively. panding EV fleet to function effectively to meet buyers’
purpose of the index will be to track, over time, whether mobility needs.
improvements are being made to the different drivers
of EV adoption and where barriers remain to deter their
adoption.
sophus3.com 16The EV Index from Sophus3
provides a clear, simple rating
of a car market’s readiness
to ‘go electric’. A score of
100 represents a state of
parity where EV purchase The Index is made up of
and ownership would be as three ‘pillars’, the critical
simple and no more costly drivers of — or barriers to
than owning a petrol or diesel — EV adoption.
car.
The EV Index is published
quarterly to show how The Index and each of the
EV market conditions are pillars are traffic-light coded
evolving over time. to highlight areas where
progress is being made, or
where barriers to EV adoption
remain.The EV Index: How ready is the market for electric vehicles?
The consumer Automotive Infrastructure
appetite for EVs brands’ ability to readiness
supply EVs
Using online data, Sophus3 can quickly understand how In this part of the index we measure firstly, the propor- It is all very well encouraging consumers to purchase
many people from the huge online audience to automo- tion of electric models on offer from manufacturers com- an EV, but without the assurances of sufficient infra-
tive sites are actively pursuing an EV purchase. We can pared to conventionally powered petrol and diesel cars. structure to support that choice, in the form of suitably
see the proportion of the total audience for car brand More importantly, we look at the pricing of the two types dispersed charging facilities, then those efforts will come
sites who are looking at EVs. Consumer appetite is of vehicle to calculate the premium that an EV buyer to nothing.
further measured by the volume of web searches for EVs must pay and how that may be changing over time.
Whilst the number of public charging points, the land
compared to the search volume for internal combustion
Pricing is central to differentiating how accessible elec- area, population, and the size of the vehicle fleet allow
engined (ICE) vehicles.
tric cars really are for consumers in each market, rather for a high-level calculation of the density of facilities, the
This consumer behaviour is given further weighting by than being halo products that the manufacturer expects results are not always useful. This is because people,
comparing online behaviour with real world outcomes to sell only in small numbers. ‘On the Road’ pricing and their travel needs, can be dispersed geographically
— the number of actual EV registrations (sales) that take is used which includes all taxes, delivery and other in very uneven ways. The UK for example, with a pop-
place in the market. As EV market share grows, this adds charges. Where a central government subsidy is offered ulation density of 274 people per km2 has, perhaps not
a virtuous momentum to the shift in consumer consider- on purchase of an EV, this is included in the calculated surprisingly, one of the highest percentages in Europe of
ation by creating reference points for those consumers. price. people living in densely populated areas: 57%. However,
Iceland, with a population density of just 3.5 people per
The higher the level of online interest in EVs then the The more EVs that are on offer and the lower the
km2 actually has a much greater proportion of its people
higher the contribution to the index. That contribution, premium paid, the higher the score contributed by this
living in areas defined as densely populated: 70%.17
as we have said, being given additional weighting by the element to the overall index.
real world sales achieved. Such variations mean that the EV infrastructure required
in different countries and regions will look very different
sophus3.com 18The EV Index: How ready is the market for electric vehicles?
both in scale and extent from what one might be imag- Combining the data into a gies to create an EV Index for individual car brands. This
ined from a simple calculation of population density. will show how they are positioned within their market,
single index enabling them to benchmark their progress against com-
To assess likely infrastructure need we have therefore
The three separate indices are combined mathematically petitors, and understand their own audience’s propensity
used the current gasoline/diesel filling station infrastruc-
to give a single number that represents the readiness to buy electric. This ‘personalised’ index can form the
ture to provide a proxy understanding of the variations in
of a market to go electric. However, in publishing the basis of a ready understanding of the barriers, both ex-
infrastructure requirement between markets. Given that
index we also show, and grade, the contribution of each ternal and internal, that a car brand needs to overcome
the petroleum distribution network has adapted organ-
element. This is because significant shortcomings in one to realise its electric vehicle ambitions.
ically to efficiently meet the needs of the predominantly
area could effectively stymie progress in other areas.
ICE vehicle fleet in line with the dispersal of the popula-
Most obviously, if the infrastructure to support EV use
tion and their trip requirements, then this can provide a
base factor to be used in the calculation of the future EV
is totally inadequate, neither high levels of consumer in-
Where to see and download
terest, or the availability of competitively priced vehicles
charging network and the measurement of infrastructure
will compensate for that failing and persuade people to the latest EV Index
density parity that will be required.
purchase electric. The EV Index is published online at www.sophus3.com/
The better the fit of the charging infrastructure to meet ev_index_current.
Each of the three pillars is shown as a traffic light. Green
future needs, the higher the contribution of this pillar to
indicates a good performance where conditions positive- For more information about the EV Index and digital in-
the overall index.
ly encourage EV adoption. Orange indicates limitations sights into the car buying journey, please contact Patrick
in provision where some of the drivers for adoption are Fuller, Head of Automotive Insight at Sophus3 (patrick.
just satisfactory. Red indicates that a set of conditions fuller@sophus3.com).
exist that actively discourage consumers from wanting
or being able to buy an EV. (Any index scoring below
16% is shown as red, between 16–75% as orange,
whilst a value above 75% is shown as green.)
As well as providing a commentary on national EV mar-
kets, Sophus3 can utilise the same data and methodolo-
sophus3.com 19The EV Index: How ready is the market for electric vehicles?
Endnotes ly/2X7rAyr
1 ACEA, http://bit.ly/32GQmXo 12 ‘China new energy vehicle sales drop 34%’, FT.com,
14/10/2019, https://on.ft.com/33mxz4u (paywall)
2 ACEA, http://bit.ly/2NYl6xO
13 ‘Charts of the Year: America loves SUVs’, FT.com,
3 https://climateemergencydeclaration.org/climate-emer- 19/12/2018, https://on.ft.com/2KaDBxY
gency-declarations-cover-15-million-citizens/
14 Source: IHS Automotive
4 https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/
cars_en 15 ‘Growing preference for SUVs challenges emissions
reductions in passenger car market’, IEA, 15/10/2019,
5 Automakers risk massive fines for CO2 target miss, http://bit.ly/33awKLG
analysts say’, Automotive News Europe, 08/04/2019,
http://bit.ly/36Pr5O7 16 Handelsblatt, 06/09/2019, http://bit.ly/32vQzh3
6 ‘Charged’, Reuters, 10/01/2019, https://tmsnrt.rs/2Ct- 17 “A harmonised definition of cities and rural areas: the
feXR new degree of urbanisation”, Lewis Dijkstra and Hugo
Poelman, Directorate-General for Regional and Urban
7 ‘What is a solid-state battery? The benefits explained’, Policy of the European Commission, 2014, http://bit.
Wired Magazine, 26/09/207, http://bit.ly/2WKv5gL ly/2qzPE0Y
8 For an explanation of the adoption barriers for new
technologies see: ‘Crossing the Chasm: Marketing and
Selling Technology Projects to Mainstream Customers’,
Geoffrey A. Moore. https://adbl.co/34dCYMb
9 ‘Electric Audi SUV tops Norway’s October car sales’,
Reuters, 01/11/2019, https://reut.rs/36UdQLW
10 ‘Norwegian EV Policy’, https://elbil.no/english/norwe-
gian-ev-policy/
11 New Car Registrations October 2019, SMMT, http://bit.
sophus3.com 20sophus3.com
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