The Danish National Water Resources Model (DK-model) - BGR
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IHME workshop, Berlin, 22-23. August 2013
The Danish National Water
Resources Model (DK-model)
- Support for decision making
and WFD implementation
Anker Lajer Højberg & Klaus Hinsby
Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland
Danish Ministry of Climate, Energy and Building
The National Water Resources
Model (DK-model)
60 man3
• Numerical hydrological
50
40
model
30
20
10
0 DK-model concept
-1 0
-2 0
– 43,000 km2,
7 sub-models -3 0
-4 0
MIKE SHE/MIKE
Abstractions: 11
> 40.000 screens
-5 0
3D groundwater
– Coupled SW-GW model -6 0
-7 0
Head Rivers
obs: > 30.000 (not all time series)
(MIKE SHE/MIKE 11) -8 0
Root zone
Climate data(built into root zone module)
-9 0
Irrigation
– Data from national databases
0 500 0 100 00 150 00 200 00 250 00 300 00 350 00
– Hydrogeological description River Snow
discharge:~ 200 stations
60
Flow model
500 m grid
50
– 3D geological interpretation 40
12 – 15 vertical layers
30
– Inverse calibration - PEST
20
Daily time steps
10
0
-1 0
– Public accessible -2 0
-3 0
– Stored in national model
-4 0
-5 0
database
-6 0
-7 0
-8 0
-9 0
0 500 0 100 00 150 00 200 00 250 00 300 00 350 00
(Højberg et al., 2013; Stisen et al., 2012)
Vision
• DK-model – unifying platform
– Hydrological model and database
– Reference for all water management related
aspects at all levels
• Regularly update as new knowledge and data
becomes available
• Continuous development
History
• 1996 – 2003: 1. version of the DK-model (Henriksen et al., 2003)
o Improved estimate of the national water balance (replacing
simple analytical estimate)
– Research project
– National interpretations
– National databases
• 2005 – 2009: Extensive model
update (Højberg et al., 2013)
– Collaboration with regional water
authorities
– Regional and local studies (> 50)
• 2010 – 2013: Various improvements based on national,
regional and local scale studies
– New geological models funded by the Danish Nature Agencies
must be prepared for inclusion in DK-model
– Collaboration between GEUS, water authorities and
consultancies
Model applications
Climate change
impacts and adaptions
Quantitative Chemical
status status
Groundwater Groundwater
Surface water Surface water
Applications Users
• WFD/GWD implementation • Research institutions
• National & regional assessments • National water authorities
• Basis for local studies • Regional authorities
• Research projects • Municipalities
• Water companies
~25 SCI listed papers since 2003, directly or indirectly based on the DK-model (> 2 per year)
The DK-model in WFD implementation
Groundwater quantitative Groundwater chemical status
status e.g.: e.g.:
1) Aquifer safe yield (Henriksen et al., 2008) 1) Threshold values to protect
2) Eflows (flow quantity and quality terrestrial ecosystems
required to sustain surface water 2) Threshold values to protect aquatic
ecosystems) (Olsen et al., 2012) ecosystems and e.g. reduce risk of
3) Terrestrial ecosystems harmful algal blooms (Hinsby et al., 2008,
2012)
4) Flooding risks (coastal and
3) Saltwater intrusion. (Rasmussen et al., 2013)
hinterland) (Sonnenborg et al., 2012)
Harmful Algal Bloom (Cyanobacteria)
Baltic Sea between Denmark and Germany –
25.8.2006
(Sonnenborg et al., 2012) Foto: Klaus Hinsby, GEUS (Hinsby et al., 2008) (Hinsby et al., 2012).
Quantitative status
Integrated national assessment
Henriksen et al., 2008
Climate variability
Decreased groundwater table:
Extraction related to natural recharge
Increased deep recharge
Reduced streamflow:
Mean flow
Eflow
Monitoring programme
• Conceptual hydrogeological model -> 3D
delineation of GW bodies and link to national
database on quantity and quality
– Basis for reporting to EU
• Design of GW monitoring programme
• Estimates of water balance – quantitative status
DK-model
Corrected DK-model
• Interpolation Observed
and extra-
Q (mm/day)
polation of
freshwater
discharges
Windolf et al., 2007
Calculations of climate change effects on
hydrology and groundwater
Present
Climate Change in shallow gw-level
(m)
2
scaling
Bias
Correction
Future
Climate
Global Regional Hydrological Models
100-250 km 10-25 km 50-500 m Skala
Several regional studies to estimate effects of CC and
uncertainty related to the simulations
Risk for GW flooding or reduced recharge Min, mean and max changes in GW levels based on analysis of 9 GCMRCM combinations Groundwater level 2021-2050 versus 1961-1990 Groundwater recharge 2021-2050 versus 1961-1990 Changes in meter Changes in mm/year 10
Results available from public portal
Changes in extreme flow
Climate factors, Qmax, T=100 year
11CC effects on N-mass fluxes
Predicted future N-
flux (A2 emission
CC will scenario)
generally
increase
stream
flow
Observed N-
flux as function
of discharge
Increasing precipitation and runoff
will increase nutrient loads– and
hence require reduced groundwater
threshold values (assuming no land
use change) (Sonnenborg et al., 2011)Present studies:
Nitrogen load to coastal areas
Development of model complex (DSS). Collaboration between
national research institutes
N-leaching
Danish Centre for Food
and Agriculture (DCA) Surface
water
Danish Centre
for Environment
Groundwater and Energy
GEUS (DCE)
Basis for implementation of the WFD – 2nd cycle Funded by
• Estimates of nitrate load to Fjords and marine areas • Danish Nature Agency
• Danish Environmental
• Estimate reduction in GW and surface water systems Agency
• Locate optimal mitigation measures and location • Danish AgriFish
Agency
• Estimate effect of mitigation measuresNew BONUS research project ”Soils2Sea” Partners from: DK (coordinator), DE, PL, RU and SE Topic: reduction of nutrient loadings to the Baltic Sea and the impacts of climate change.
Selected references directly or indirectly using the DK-model
Hansen AL, Refsgaard JC, Christensen BSB, Jensen KH (2013), Water Resources Research 49: 585-603 DOI 10.1029/2011wr011783
Hansen JR, Refsgaard JC, Ernstsen V, Hansen S, Styczen M, Poulsen RN (2009), Hydrology Research 40: 347-363 DOI 10.2166/nh.2009.035
Henriksen HJ, Refsgaard JC, Hojberg AL, Ferrand N, Gijsbers P, Scholten H (2009) Water Resources Modelling. Water Resources Management 23:
2539-2554 DOI 10.1007/s11269-008-9395-9
Henriksen HJ, Troldborg L, Hojberg AL, Refsgaard JC (2008) Journal of Hydrology 348: 224-240 DOI 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.09.056
Henriksen HJ, Troldborg L, Nyegaard P, Sonnenborg TO, Refsgaard JC, Madsen B (2003). Journal of Hydrology 280: 52-71 DOI 10.1016/s0022-
1694(03)00186-0
Hinsby K, de Melo MTC, Dahl M (2008). Science of the Total Environment 401: 1-20
Hinsby K, Markager S, Kronvang B, Windolf J, Sonnenborg TO, Thorling L (2012). Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 16: 2663-2683 DOI
10.5194/hess-16-2663-2012
Hojberg AL, Troldborg L, Stisen S, Christensen BBS, Henriksen HJ (2013). Environmental Modelling & Software 40: 202-213 DOI
10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.09.010
Kidmose J, Refsgaard JC, Troldborg L, Seaby LP, Escriva MM (2013). Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 17: 1619-1634 DOI 10.5194/hess-17-1619-
2013
Rasmussen J, Sonnenborg TO, Stisen S, Seaby LP, Christensen BSB, Hinsby K (2012). Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 16: 4675-4691 DOI
10.5194/hess-16-4675-2012
Rasmussen P, Sonnenborg TO, Goncear G, Hinsby K (2013). Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 17: 421-443 DOI 10.5194/hess-17-421-2013
Refsgaard JC, Hojberg AL, Moller I, Hansen M, Sondergaard V (2010). Ground Water 48: 633-648 DOI 10.1111/j.1745-6584.2009.00634.x
Seaby LP, Refsgaard JC, Sonnenborg TO, Stisen S, Christensen JH, Jensen KH (2013). Journal of Hydrology 486: 479-493 DOI
10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.02.015
Seifert D, Sonnenborg TO, Refsgaard JC, Hojberg AL, Troldborg L (2012). Water Resources Research 48 DOI 10.1029/2011wr011149
Seifert D, Sonnenborg TO, Scharling P, Hinsby K (2008). Hydrogeology Journal 16: 659-674 DOI 10.1007/s10040-007-0252-3
Sonnenborg TO, Hinsby K, van Roosmalen L, Stisen S (2012). Climatic Change 113: 1025-1048 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0367-3
Stisen S, Hojberg AL, Troldborg L, Refsgaard JC, Christensen BSB, Olsen M, Henriksen HJ (2012). Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 16: 4157-4176
DOI 10.5194/hess-16-4157-2012
Troldborg L, Jensen KH, Engesgaard P, Refsgaard JC, Hinsby K (2008). Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 13: 1037-1048 DOI 10.1061/(asce)1084-
0699(2008)13:11(1037)
van Roosmalen L, Christensen BSB, Sonnenborg TO (2007). Vadose Zone Journal 6: 554-571 DOI 10.2136/vzj2006.0093
van Roosmalen L, Christensen JH, Butts MB, Jensen KH, Refsgaard JC (2010). Journal of Hydrology 380: 406-419 DOI 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.11.014
van Roosmalen L, Sonnenborg TO, Jensen KH (2009). Water Resources Research 45 DOI 10.1029/2007wr006760
Windolf J, Thodsen H, Troldborg L, Larsen SE, Bogestrand J, Ovesen NB, Kronvang B (2011). Journal of Environmental Monitoring 13: 2645-2658 DOI
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