The CRISIS Issue - Brunswick Group
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A J O U R NA L O F C O M M U N I C AT I O N S A N D C O R P O R AT E R E L AT I O N S I S S U E 1 7 2 0 1 9 Disinformation Economic Collapse Bankruptcy Populist Uprisings Asteroids The CRISIS Issue Cyber Attacks Activist Challenges Terrorism Gambling Addiction A Museum Saga FEATURING: Timothy Geithner • Neal Wolin • Baroness Shriti Vadera • Arianna Huffington
Brunswick is an advisory firm specializing in business critical issues and stakeholder relations To download and share Brunswick Review stories go to www.brunswickgroup.com/crisis You can follow us on Twitter @BrunswickGroup Highlights from this and previous issues are also available on LinkedIn editor in chief Kevin Helliker managing editor Carlton Wilkinson creative director Frank Tagariello deputy editor Edward Stephens content production manager Laura Templer The Brunswick Review is printed on Cocoon print production MerchantCantos Offset 100% recycled, made using post-consumer printed by CPI Colour waste fibers and manufactured without the use of cover illustration Jim Frazier any secondary bleaching feedback feedbackreview@brunswickgroup.com Copyright © Brunswick Group LLP 2019
T his edition of the brunswick review covers an area vital for all leadership teams – crisis. Crises are great tests of leadership that can appear from nowhere and consume huge amounts of time, money and reputation. How can we avoid them, prepare for them, deal with them and recover from them? With crises now coming from every direction, we at Brunswick have built specialist capabilities so that highly experienced experts in key ar- eas can join our core teams whenever our clients need them. Crisis, like bullfight- ing and surgery, has never been a great amateur activity. Expertise is critical in handling the most testing moments of one’s career. Our cyber and data, litigation, workplace conduct and other specialist teams bring our clients around the world the latest research and experience of what works and what doesn’t. “Crisis management” is an expression that rings alarm bells in Brunswick. To deal well with crises, you must understand that, by their very nature, they are not manageable. They are, however, survivable and usable. What an organization needs is the resilience to pull through and the flexibility not to waste the oppor- tunity a crisis presents to make important changes. A long list of companies have SIR ALAN PARKER not just survived an existential crisis but used it to make changes that enhanced CHAIRMAN, success. Starbucks, Nike and BP stand out. BRUNSWICK GROUP There are serious problems to be dealt with every day but, thankfully, not all turn into crises. Usually the triggering event surfaces underlying doubts about an organization’s values: “I never did trust them to … protect my data, protect my health, protect my safety, etc.” This can reinforce a belief or prejudice that the company is putting profits, share price and executive benefits before stakeholder interests. If this is the perception, then the organization has a reputational weak- ness that is the opposite of the resilience needed to survive. Most crises are ones of values. They test leadership motives as much as competence. In our experience, there are three essential elements of resilience. The first is trusted relationships with key stakeholders. These must be built beforehand. Trust, like friendships, is not something you want to put off building until a crisis begins. In Brunswick, we describe this as investing in reputational capital. This capital is tangible and can be measured in a number of ways. In a crisis, it will be drawn on heavily and challenged. The second is an issue of perspective: Can you see the problem the way oth- ers do? How does the customer see this issue or your organization? How does a member of staff, the regulator, or a shareholder see it? These conversations actu- TO DEAL WELL ally frame the narrative as to what the problem really is, which is often different WITH CRISES, from how it looks from inside. This ability to see it as others do is crucial or you will be accused of not “getting it” and of being out of touch with others’ values. YOU MUST You must be aware of your part in the bigger conversation. A manageable prob- UNDERSTAND lem can accelerate into a crisis if others use it to drive their wider agendas. The media can hype stories to create sales or clicks. On social media, anyone can seek THAT, BY THEIR to make use of your problem. Corporates can be drawn into ongoing debates VERY NATURE, about issues like plastics, pay, food safety. An organization prepared to join these conversations, and able to embrace diverse perspectives, will prove more resilient. THEY ARE NOT The third key element is the mindset of the leadership team. It is painful, fright- MANAGEABLE. ening, even maddening to see others’ versions of the truth, or outright untruth, drive coverage of an issue. Yet feelings of unfairness should not dominate the re- THEY ARE, sponse of leadership. Now is when you have to stand tall, say what you believe and HOWEVER, act in the most honorable way. SURVIVABLE, Crises are an opportunity for management to show its motives and priorities. You can, as the bumper sticker puts it, “be the person your dog thinks you are.” AND USABLE. With the right team, your natural resilience can come through. u b ru n s w i c k rev i ew · i s s u e 1 7 · 2 0 1 9 3
12 QUOTES FROM THE ISSUE TIMOTHY GEITHNER 6 “Nothing good can come from a desire to appear infallible.” As US Treasury Secretary he helped avoid another Great Depression. – Former US Treasury Secretary But he says, “It was still a terrible Timothy Geithner crisis, with devasting human costs.” SPOTLIGHT SECTION 7 Insights from Brunswick colleagues around the world THE CALL OF DUTY Neal Wolin, CEO of Brunswick, recalls leaving the private sector to 17 7T ONY GARDNER, former US help President Obama and Mr. Ambassador to the EU, says unity is Geithner battle the financial crisis. threatened on five sides. 8P LAN FOR THE UNFORESEEN Rob Webb offers a guide. 9 WORKPLACE MISCONDUCT BARONESS SHRITI VADERA “It was about avoiding the 1930s 20 and the Great Depression.” The Research shows leadership needs to former UK government minister demonstrate responsiveness. talks to Brunswick’s Andrew Porter. AFRICA ON SPEED DIAL 10 Lessons from Ghana’s surge in 10 mobile payments. BRUNSWICK CEO NEAL WOLIN KING OF THE ROAD Former Vice Chairman of GM Robert Lutz talks about steering 22 11 The time to start preparing for crisis is not the moment that it strikes. Detroit’s top automaker back to profitability during the recession. 22 4 b ru n s w i c k rev i ew · i s s u e 1 7 · 2 0 1 9
THE CRISIS ISSUE 27 ADAM TOOZE: CRASHED The Columbia University historian on his definitive history of the 2008 crisis. TIN EARS AND TOP HATS Andrew Porter and Stuart Hudson say missteps worsened the 2009 expenses 59 scandal that rocked UK Parliament. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS 29 New tools can help companies make use of the deluge of data that comes with a crisis. RESTORING TRUST Years of corruption have left South Africa’s new leaders facing a steep road. 61 30 THE EARNINGS CALL Brunswick research finds Fortune 100 READING ITALY Luciano Fontana, Editor in Chief 62 companies are most likely to thumb of Corriere della Sera, remains their noses at convention. 36 optimistic despite political chaos. THE COST OF LOST REPUTATION 34 Co-authors Howard Kunreuther and Michael Useem quantify the risk. ZIA CHISHTI The billionaire tech entrepreneur 64 says AI is overrated. ARIANNA HUFFINGTON 36 Exhaustion and success are not compatible, says the founder of BANKING ON A BETTER WORLD Sir Danny Alexander on how the 69 Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank Huffington Post and Thrive Global. She has proven its critics wrong. tells us her plan to fix the workplace. JOSÉ LUIS BONET 40 BATTLE-TESTED Ex-Navy SEALs Jocko Willink and Leif 47 The Spanish Chamber of Commerce President tells us how the Catalan 71 Babin expect you to do better. secession crisis impacts businesses. 42 JIMMY DUNNE III Sandler O’Neill lost over a third of its people on 9/11. Shadowed by a COMPLEXITY A crisis is dynamic. Its handling 73 reporter, his grief on full display, Mr. should be too. Dunne, the only surviving senior TEST OF METTLE partner, vowed to save the firm. How a boardroom climate-change challenge at BHP Billiton built trust 74 DONATING TIME 46 Brunswick’s Chief People Officer on how a program to assist individuals can with investors. build community. HOW TO TAKE A JOKE Kansas City reaped a benefit from a cheap prank that went viral. 77 47 CYBER CORNER 47 RUDE AWAKENING Brunswick research finds cyber- ABSTRACT WOMEN crime blame falls on the victim. 50 TARGET OF DISINFORMATION Author Mary Gabriel restores five US painters to their rightful place in history. 78 WilmerHale lawyers examine legal 54 recourses for fake news attacks. BRUNSWICK ARTS: “SCAFFOLD” How the Walker Art Center handled a 83 UK: TERROR ATTACKS crisis of historic proportions. 53 When discipline made a difference. 54 HOT SEAT Brunswick’s Maren Brooks lays out ASTEROID THREAT A large meteor strike is unlikely yet inevitable. What’s the plan? 86 lessons from her time as Director of The Review talks to the US Planetary the White House Situation Room. Defense Officer and others. GOOD GAME 56 William Hill CEO Philip Bowcock tells of his company’s ambition that CRITICAL MOMENT A sharp rise in humanitarian aid from 90 businesses after a natural disaster has gambling harm no one. 78 proven extremely effective. b ru n s w i c k rev i ew · i s s u e 1 7 · 2 0 1 9 5
“Nothing good can “To be honest with you, “That tension and total “There is a pretty serious come from a desire to we could get hit by an object awareness are hard determination among most appear infallible.” that size without to switch off. When I left senior bankers to avoid TIMOTHY F. GEITHNER seeing it beforehand.” in autumn 2009 I had anything like that ever Former US Treasury Secretary LINDLEY JOHNSON nightmares. It stays happening again. Because 12 US Planetary Defense Officer, on with you.” it’s humiliating. Nobody “The shortcut to not the asteroid that exploded over BARONESS SHRITI VADERA wants to be Lehman Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013 procrastinating is to do On the 2008 financial crisis Brothers, game over.” 86 20 what you’re supposed to do ADAM TOOZE when you’re supposed to “That’s why I’m richer “Gambling is meant to be a Columbia University than you.” economic historian do it. There’s no secret or leisure activity, not a source 27 trick or hack. It’s simple, but JAMIE DIMON of human misery.” it’s definitely not easy.” CEO of JPMorgan Chase during PHILIP BOWCOCK “I’d made the decision to a 2013 earnings call trust her in the same way JOCKO WILLINK CEO of William Hill 30 Corporate adviser, podcaster, author 56 I made a lot of decisions and retired US Navy SEAL at that moment – by the 40 seat of my pants.” “After my collapse from JIMMY DUNNE III exhaustion and sleep CEO of Sandler O’Neill 42 deprivation, I had to ask myself, was this what “There is no doubt the success looked like?” corporate community was ARIANNA HUFFINGTON slow to respond to growing Author and entrepreneur, founder of shareholder concerns Huffington Post and Thrive Global on climate change.” 36 PRU BENNETT “My whole job was to get Head of Investment Stewardship, Asia Pacific, for BlackRock GM back to enthusiastically 74 designing and building the best product. Basically, “We’re big AI skeptics at to get General Motors back Afiniti. We think it’s all kind into the car business.” of a bubble and a mania.” ROBERT LUTZ ZIA CHISHTI Former Vice Chairman of Afiniti founder, General Motors Chairman and CEO 22 64 SOUND BITES ILLUSTRATION: EDMON DE HARO 6
SP TLIGHT Sharing insights from Brunswick colleagues around the world on a medley of topics. T POPULISM here are (at least) five unlikely to carry out a referendum reasons many European on the euro or EU membership, policymakers see the rise of it has shown an eagerness to populism as a key preoccupation confront the EU. That threat for the next few years. has reawakened fears in global First, the European elections financial markets about Italy’s scheduled for May 2019 (a few growing sovereign debt (€2.3 months following Brexit) may upset the political balance, resulting in a Parliament heavily TROUBLESOME SIGNS FOR THE EU trillion, more than 130 percent of national GDP). Italian banks’ balance sheets could once again influenced by nationalist and FIVE TRENDS bode ill for the European Commission’s (EC) require strengthening if the euro-skeptic forces. The center- stability, says Brunswick’s executive prerogatives by sending sovereign debt value is written right European People’s Party will Tony Gardner. euro-skeptic commissioners to down. The tension between Rome remain the strongest but could be Brussels and stalling legislation. and Brussels is also an unwelcome ILLUSTRATION: FABIO CONSOLI weakened. The center-left Alliance underperforms anti-EU political Member states may move ahead distraction: Italy needs to reignite of Socialists and Democrats will be parties like Italy’s Northern League with their own legislation such as growth after more than a decade significantly diminished, reflecting and Five Star Movement. digital sales tax, resulting in greater of stagnation. If it fails in that the collapse of socialist parties. The A fractured European EU market fragmentation. mission, the result may be greater core block of these two parties may Parliament would be a less effective Second, Italy has resurfaced populism and euro-skepticism. no longer form a reliable majority, co-legislator with the Council as a major source of economic Third, the EU is facing a especially if (as appears likely) the (representing the member states). and political instability. Although remarkable challenge to its liberal pan-European En Marche! Some states may seek to diminish the Italian Government is highly core values and laws. After the b ru n s w i c k rev i ew · i s s u e 1 7 · 2 0 1 9 7
SPOTLIGHT Parliament censured Hungary Christian Democratic Union counter-balanced, German power Middle East remains under for breaches of the rule of law, the has weakened in national and at the heart of the EU. If the UK control, it may re-emerge as a nation appealed to the European regional polls, at the same time leaves as planned and French potent contributor to European Court of Justice in Luxembourg that her sister party, the Christian loss of political prestige persists, extremism. While Russia has (the EU’s highest court) and Social Union, has lost its historic the European project would sought for years to magnify refused to address EC’s concerns. dominance in Bavaria. The grand become even more unbalanced. Europe’s divisions, its interference Hungary might defy the court, governing coalition of CDU-CSU Diminished leadership in Berlin, in European elections is new. unlike Poland, which agreed to with the Social Democratic Party furthermore, may mean even And in the US, the White House, amend a law on its judiciary only faces tremendous uncertainty. greater unwillingness to make abandoning six decades of after the court upheld the EC’s Merkel has given up party bold moves to secure Europe’s bipartisan foreign policy in favor concerns. If Hungary does so, the leadership and some speculate future, including partnering with of bilateral and transactional stage will be set for a conflict that that she may not finish her term. Paris on eurozone reform. relationships with national would embolden euro-skeptics These trends are occurring Finally, external factors such capitals, now hopes for further and potentially tear the EU apart. at the same time as Brexit and as migration, Russia and the US member exits from the EU. u Fourth, Germany’s ability to political fragmentation across add spice to this witch’s potion. Tony Gardner is a Brunswick Senior continue providing direction may the Continent. France and the Although the flow of migration Adviser in London and a former US diminish. Chancellor Merkel’s UK have complemented, and from Northern Africa and the Ambassador to the EU. • Who does what? What will be the roles of the Chairman, the Chief Executive, the CFO? • Who will take operational charge of the issues? Who will reassure the markets? • Who will run the Company in the meantime? Likewise the risk of certain events can always be addressed. What happens if: • The Head Office is blown up PLAN for the or flooded? • There is a denial of service or Unforeseeable other cyber attack? • There is a fatal injury in a critical plant? It is a potentially endless list, but unrehearsed means un- L prepared; too often we see the ord balfour, a conservative Success boils down to 9/11; the SARS epidemic (now Prime Minister, observed that discipline, says Brunswick’s largely forgotten – it was worse “nine-year-old football team” the longer he continued in Rob Webb. than 9/11 for many airlines); the spectacle, where no one plays in office, the more he realized that 2008 financial crash, which inter- position and all players crowd the “Nothing matters very much another day, another crisis, be it rupted business traffic; and the goalmouth in the hope of being and few things matter at all.” In for the National Health Service, for physical crash of the Concorde the one who puts the ball in the 1902, with the British Empire at the Prime Minister, for Manchester into a suburb of Paris in 2000. net. Even senior executives find it its peak, such lofty indifference United’s manager, for whoever. A disaster foreseen is usu- difficult to resist the desire to join may have constituted a sensible, But real crises are still quite ally a disaster avoided – it is in. Crises are exciting, discipline pragmatic approach to almost rare, at least insofar as they affect the unanticipated ones that can be dull. Yet it is imperative any disaster which might then the population of the affluent are the problem. No company that each should play to his or her have befallen the nation. West, where prosperity has grown should spend too much money own, pre-agreed positions. In 2018, we have taken the steadily amid a consistent negative preparing for the unlikely and the So to the moral: Crises are opposite approach. The media drumbeat from the ubiquitous unexpected (snow at Heathrow not daily events, but in the life of would have us believe that there prophets of doom. In the new vol- is debatable as an example), but corporations, they happen. The is a crisis every day. “A scared atility of our times, business events it must at the very least have a best preparation is to identify, in ILLUSTRATION: SERGE BLOCH reader is tomorrow’s reader” that threaten prosperity arise with plan to deal with the unexpected, advance, not the precise form that worked well as a maxim in the an increasing frequency and can as a general concept. No one can the crisis will take, but who will newspaper world of print and still properly be called crises. know in advance what shape it manage it and then to ensure that it has lost none of its vigor as For example, at British Airways, will take, but that should not such individuals know who they the world has gone digital. The where I worked from 1998 to prevent planning and rehearsal to are and are properly practiced. u concept of “crisis” has gone into 2008, there were several corporate- answer certain questions generic Rob Webb is a Brunswick Senior Adviser the language of daily routine; threatening events: the attacks of to all such events: in London. 8 b ru n s w i c k rev i ew · i s s u e 1 7 · 2 0 1 9
WORKPLACE ONE IN FOUR AMERICAN EMPLOYEES have seen or CONDUCT: heard of a workplace conduct incident in their firm in the Wake-Up Call past 12 months. R 89% esearch by brunswick found a gap between how leaders view issues of workplace conduct and how non- leadership employees see them. In short, leaders are optimistic – and out of touch. The data, collected from a nationally representative want to hear from sample of 1,000 US adults in their CEO about respect in August 2018, also found that the workplace, yet only workplace conduct issues remain 29 percent have. prevalent across industries, and that employee trust is in short supply. Almost one in two workers THREE IN 10 EMPLOYEES believed HR would prioritize the believe discrimination is company over employees. widespread in the workplace. PERCEPTION GAP Leaders are more likely than others to believe their workplace does not tolerate harassment and is focused on addressing misconduct. Leadership Non-Leadership Leadership Non-Leadership Employees Employees Employees Employees 66% 49% 72% 54% “Strongly agree” their workplace Believe workplace misconduct is a "does not tolerate harassment" priority of the board of directors BETTER GET A adults are unprepared for disaster. Faced with the need to run from Hamilton climbed 16 dark flights to grab his and his daughters’ Go power in their home was restored. Go Bags can be purchased GO BAG hurricanes, wildfires, terrorist Bags. That experience was what online, with prices from $70 and attacks or floods, there is often led him to keep a second Go Bag to $300. Or they can be custom no time, so a pre-packed bag at the office. made. Mr. Hamilton’s self-made W hen peter hamilton can be crucial. New York City’s In 2012, Hurricane Sandy left bag contains a long-lasting LED stored a Go Bag in his Emergency Management website downtown Manhattan and much flashlight, a multi-purpose tool, office, his colleagues contains an entire section on Go of the northeast without power. a basic first-aid kit, disposable smirked. Then in 2003, midtown Bags, and makes clear that one Their Go Bags kept Mr. Hamilton respirators, work gloves, a Manhattan lost power and Mr. isn’t sufficient. and his family fed, hydrated portable radio, four water bottles, ILLUSTRATIONS: FABIO CONSOLI; TOP, MELINDA BECK Hamilton, with his Go Bag “Everyone in your household and armed with flashlights until two mylar blankets, two giant flashlight, became the office hero should have a Go Bag,” it says, black trash bags and separate as he led those same colleagues adding it “should be sturdy and small bags for carrying batteries down a dark stairwell. easy to carry, like a backpack or a and a cigarette lighter. The Go Bag may be the small suitcase on wheels.” Other items to consider: a simplest bit of crisis planning that If it sounds like too much few days’ worth of water and most people ignore. Governments trouble for something that likely non-perishable food, a battery around the world recommend it, won’t be used, consider that Mr. operated radio, toiletries, cash, but research suggests that only Hamilton has used his three times. copies of important documents, a minority have such a kit at the First after 9/11, when his family’s rain gear, medication and chargers ready. The US Federal Emergency home just north of the World for basic electronics. u Management Agency estimates Trade Center lost power. Using the Gabrielle Ouaknine is an Office that 60 percent of American flashlight he always carried, Mr. Assistant in New York. b ru n s w i c k rev i ew · i s s u e 1 7 · 2 0 1 9 9
SPOTLIGHT AFRICA on accounts, up from less than a million in 2014. Between 2016 curious mobile money experience. How did it go from laggard to Speed Dial and 2017 the value of mobile mobile banking vanguard? Rather transactions in Ghana rose by 97 predictably and boringly, through percent to $34.6 billion. It was regulatory changes. Ghana’s mobile payments $45.3 billion in Kenya. According Ghana had well-intentioned surge offers a lesson. to the Consultative Group to regulations aimed at financial Assist the Poor, Ghanaians are inclusion, but which proved to T hirteen percent of now even using their phones to be a barrier to mobile money Ghanaian adults owned a buy sovereign bonds. In short, investment. The Central Bank re- mobile money account in Ghana came out of nowhere to examined those regulations and 2014. In one sense, that’s no become the fastest growing and changed them – voilà, revolution. real surprise. After all, everyone one of the largest mobile money This serves as a cautionary has heard of the mobile money markets in the world. tale about Africa’s development. revolution in Africa. But they tend Berkshire Hathaway recently For economies to grow, to to think Kenya and East Africa. pumped $600 million into attract investment and enable But Ghana? Not so much. politically, socially. Meanwhile emerging market fintech technologies that will unlock In 2014, when The Wall Street Ghana, one of the fastest growing companies – the surest signal that Africa’s demographic dividend Journal reported on how banks economies in the world … nope. fintech is mainstream, ordinary. – rather than doom a continent were vying for a piece of Africa’s To be fair to The WSJ, Tanzania Ghana, on the other hand, is that will soon have roughly the mobile money revolution, Ghana at the time had about 8 million proof that the technology leapfrog same population size as Asia – did not feature in the article at mobile money accounts – over is both possible and plausible. governments must matter, all. Zimbabwe was mentioned. 10 times more than Ghana. Fast To understand the potential policy must matter and politics Tanzania was mentioned. Neither forward three years and Ghana for Africa to use technology as a must matter. u of those countries were doing (population 28 million) now developmental leapfrog, one must Itumeleng Mahabane is a Partner in particularly well economically, has 11 million mobile money in part unravel Ghana’s rather Brunswick’s Johannesburg office. CORPORATE the accumulation of small, bad decisions. Employees in firms with Pre-Mortem short-term decision-making by a small group of leaders were more likely to select this cause. Brunswick Insight’s Robert Others saw competition as the Moran asks, how is your biggest threat – 15 percent selected company likely to die? existing competitors and 14 percent new competitors. C orporations are focusing New technology followed more on risk identification and closely, selected by 13 percent. This mitigation than ever before was the trend consistently cited and corporate risk committees are as the most challenging over the increasingly being used to scan the next decade – more than social horizon for emerging risks. change, economic turbulence or But, are they crowdsourcing environmental issues. these risks with their employees? The next most likely cause Brunswick Insight did this by another decade – 63 percent think long-term approaches. They were of corporate death is the sin surveying 601 US employees at their firm is “very likely” to live consistently seen as more trusted of omission – “failing to take large corporations (1000-plus another decade, but everyone else and resilient. Those with the advantage of new opportunities” employees).We asked them a is less convinced. For our study, lowest expectation for survival at 12 percent. And rounding out ILLUSTRATIONS: MELINDA BECK; TOP, SERGE BLOCH range of questions including 1) we divided corporate culture into were both more reactive and relied the list was lack of demand, a good how likely they think it is that their eight descriptive categories, based on fewer decision makers. reminder that this age-old pressure employer will survive the next on three binary attributes: whether But, what do employees think remains our first competitor. 10 years and 2) if their employer their approach was more proactive will kill their companies? In sum, employees seem to were to go out of business, what or reactive; whether there were Employees are skeptical that a big believe that while corporate would be the main cause of many or few decision makers; scandal or crisis, the corporate crises and scandals are common, corporate death? and whether the time focus for equivalent of an asteroid strike, they are less deadly than bad What did we learn from this leadership was more short-term or will destroy their business. Only management, competitors old and corporate pre-mortem? long-term. 10 percent listed such an event as a new, and disruptive technology. u First, nearly four in 10 (37 As you might expect, cultures likely cause of death. On the other percent) of American employees with the greatest expectation of hand, 26 percent identified simple, Robert Moran is a Partner in Washington, DC and Head of Brunswick at large companies aren’t survivability were in categories garden variety mismanagement Insight, the firm’s public opinion, market convinced their firm will survive identified to have proactive, by leadership as a likely cause – research and analytics arm. 10 b ru n s w i c k rev i ew · i s s u e 1 7 · 2 0 1 9
INTRODUCTION A recent wharton study of stock who once suffered a health-threatening collapses following reputational hits collapse at her desk at the Huffington found that price recovery on average Post, and Jocko Willink (Page 40), a deco- took 80 weeks. The authors of that study, rated Navy Seal turned best-selling au- interviewed here on Page 34, believe it thor. Where Ms. Huffington sees “a crisis bolsters the argument for anticipating of well-being” marked by too much email and preparing for crisis. But they ac- and too little sleep, Mr. Willink laments knowledge that a large body of behavioral a crisis of laziness and lack of discipline. research shows that we’re not rational Surely there’s truth to both arguments. about risk. We tend to believe that calam- Consistent in these pages is a message ity will strike elsewhere, not here. The of hope. Automotive legend Bob Lutz, dangers of that fallacy are starkly appar- Vice Chairman of General Motors during ent in the context of national security. its bankruptcy, recounts with pride its “A terror attack is no time to learn reemergence and revival (Page 22). The how to respond,” Brunswick’s Paddy Mc- US bailout of troubled financial and Guinness, former UK Deputy National industrial giants – heavily criticized in Security Adviser, writes on Page 53. 2009 – led to a longer period of growth In the C-suite, quests for growth and than anyone could have imagined, says prosperity are balanced more than ever Columbia University historian Adam by efforts to foresee and minimize threats Tooze on Page 27. In an amusing tale on CRISIS ISSUE old and new, and from every possible di- rection. “Don’t let the discovery of a cyber attack be the first time you think about how you will handle it,” advise a pair of Page 77, Kansas City reaped a benefit from an embarrassing internet prank. Also clear from this Review is that crisis can offer executives the chance to Brunswick cyber experts on Page 47. serve larger-than-usual constituencies. Not every crisis can be anticipated of New research shows that companies now course, and no set of management rules contribute a greater share of natural- could apply to each and all. Some rescues, disaster aid than governments and aid for instance, may gain force from mea organizations (Page 90). culpae and apologies, as Brunswick’s There is also the rousing influence of Stuart Hudson and Andrew Porter write character. After a third of his colleagues on Page 59. But assigning blame during and his two fellow senior partners per- last decade’s financial crisis wasn’t the ished in the World Trade Center attack highest priority for US Treasury Secre- (Page 42), Jimmy Dunne’s determination tary Timothy Geithner. Public outrage to rebuild their boutique investment notwithstanding, he was too busy saving banking firm became an inspiration to PHOTOGRAPH: FREDRIK BRODEN the economy. Among other lessons, Mr. all of America. Geithner (Page 12) says decisions must We hope that this edition informs and be made even in the absence of attractive inspires you. u options. “Plan beats no plan,” he says. In these pages, the complicated nature of crisis is reflected in the disparate mes- NEAL WOLIN, sages of Arianna Huffington (Page 36), CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER 11
president barack obama, inaugurated amid the worst financial TIMOTHYGEITHNER crisis since the Great Depression, named an unorthodox Secretary of the Treasury. Timothy F. Geithner wasn’t a banker, an academic or an econo- mist. He was a career civil servant who had run the New York Fed since 2003, entirely under President George W. Bush. Politically he was independent. To President-elect Obama’s first expression of interest in him as Treasury Sec- retary, Mr. Geithner responded: “Let me talk you out of that.” What made Mr. Geithner the top candidate was his stewardship of the New York Fed during the previous few months. As mortgage defaults ex- posed under-recognized risks in the balance sheets of financial services firms, toppling the likes of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, Mr. Geithner had helped design a $700 billion federal fund to provide liquidity to stricken companies in exchange for preferred stock. That measure, so far, appeared to have contained the ongoing crisis, even if the bailout of Wall Street firms was provoking outrage on the left and the right. Here, too, was a proven vir- tue of Mr. Geithner’s: He didn’t care about approval ratings. In his mind the only priority was preventing a second Great Depression. When he became Treasury Secretary in late January of 2009, Americans were losing their jobs, savings and homes at terrifying rates. Consumer The former US Treasury Secretary on managing the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. PHOTOGRAPH: TAYLOR HILL/FILMMAGIC 12
2008 CRASH GEITHNER confidence had sunk to all-time lows. In the hope of calming nerves in the markets and beyond, Mr. “The worst the Treasury, Neal Wolin, now the Chief Executive Officer of Brunswick. “We lived through months of Geithner delivered a speech, early in his tenure, that financial crises terror,” Mr. Geithner wrote. “We endured seeming- proved disastrous. and associated ly endless stretches when global finance was on the edge of collapse, when we had to make monumen- “Stocks tumbled more than 3 percent before I even finished talking and nearly 5 percent by the recessions tal decisions in a fog of uncertainty, when our op- end of the day,” Mr. Geithner recalled in his best- are typically tions all looked dismal but we still had to choose.” In an interview with Brunswick Review’s Kevin selling memoir, Stress Test, published in 2014. “It was a bad speech, badly delivered. I kept peering followed by a Helliker, Mr. Geithner, now the President of War- around the teleprompter to look directly at the au- decade burg Pincus, expands on his thoughts about man- aging during a crisis. dience, which apparently made me look shifty; one of populism, commentator said I looked like a shoplifter. ” In the weeks that followed, Mr. Geithner became because In his new book Crashed, which has been praised as the first scholarly history of the financial a popular target, prompting President Obama the public anger collapse, Columbia University’s Adam Tooze says to joke at a Wall Street dinner in mid-2009 that and outrage the US rescue was more effective than anyone could have envisioned. Is that gratifying? he needed to train his dog, Bo, “because the last thing Tim Geithner needs is someone else treat- and economic I think there is reasonably broad consensus that the ing him like a fire hydrant,” wrote Mr. Geithner in damage are US strategy was effective, at least in comparison to Stress Test. Within months, however, the US economy start- easily exploited the Great Depression, and to the financial crises in Japan, Scandinavia and Europe in 2010-12. ed growing again, and the ensuing decade served by the populist.” But, it was still a terrible crisis, with devastating to vindicate Mr. Geithner. By the end of 2013, US human costs. With better authority and a stronger household wealth had exceeded the pre-crisis peak, financial arsenal in place before the crisis, with a thanks in large part to a long bull market, and US greater understanding of what it takes to confront GDP was 6 percent higher than before the crisis. a classic financial panic, and with greater apprecia- The unemployment rate steadily declined. Mean- tion of the importance of a large and sustained fiscal while, buybacks of government investments in bail- stimulus … it would have been less damaging. out recipients provided taxpayers with tens of bil- lions of dollars of profit. Stress Test is infinitely more readable, thanks Even now, that success isn’t widely recognized. to the economy of lines such as “Plan beats no “Conventional wisdom still holds that we aban- plan.” Do you have an innate sense of the balance doned Main Street to protect Wall Street – ex- between too much and too little information? cept on Wall Street, where conventional wisdom More communication is better than less, certainly holds that President Obama is a radical socialist about broad objectives. But people also need full consumed with hatred for moneymakers,” Mr. transparency on the details if you have any chance Geithner wrote in Stress Test. “The financial re- of credibility. form law [Dodd-Frank] that we wrote and pushed I never had a good feel for how to explain what through a bitterly divided Congress after the crisis, we were doing. In part, that was because things were the most sweeping overhaul of financial rules since moving too fast, it sometimes took too long to get the Depression, is widely viewed as too weak, ex- consensus, and we were working on the design of cept in the financial world, where it is described as each stage of escalation up until the minute we an- an existential threat.” nounced. We had no time to think, and we couldn’t Not that Mr. Geithner is inclined to celebrate his ask the markets to pause while we designed the best and his team’s success in avoiding a second Great communications strategy. We were often feeling our Depression. “Nearly 9 million workers lost jobs; way, without much knowledge of what we would 9 million people slipped below the poverty line; have to do next and what would work. We could not 5 million homeowners lost homes. Behind those credibly reassure people that it would all be OK. We numbers lies real suffering by real people who couldn’t protect people from a lot of the pain that didn’t put banks in danger with reckless bets they was going to come. didn’t understand,” he wrote. The narrative that might have been most effective As crisis experiences go, few can match that of with the financial markets was least effective with the Mr. Geithner and his team, including his deputy at public and the politicians, and vice versa. 14 b ru n s w i c k rev i ew · i s s u e 1 7 · 2 0 1 9
Of the view that the rescue favored Wall Street cal argument that the political consequences of the over Main Street, you wrote, “I never found an crisis would have been less harsh, if, for example, we effective way to explain to the public what we had let the crisis burn, or nationalized the financial were doing and why.” Should communication system, or tried to drift through the crisis without a have been a higher priority? forceful deployment of the financial arsenal. One thing I learned early in life at the Treasury is that The worst financial crises and the associated re- it’s important to put as much time and talent into cessions are typically followed by a decade of popu- figuring out how to explain what you are doing to lism, because the public anger and outrage and the the public as you do into designing the programs. economic damage are easily exploited by the pop- But in this crisis, we were never quite able to do that. ulist. It’s worth noting that many of the economic challenges that have undermined public confidence Were there times you wished state or federal in the fairness of the US economic system and prosecutors would help combat the perception the competence of the political system – the slow of a government beholden to Wall Street? growth in the median income, the fall in labor force Sure, but as Michael Kinsley once wrote, the scandal participation, the high levels of poverty, rising in- wasn’t what was illegal, it was what was legal. The equality, etc. – had been on a bad path for decades widespread belief that there was a huge amount of before the crisis. TO THE EDGE fraud and predation was not sufficient basis for an AND BACK army of motivated prosecutors to meet the under- If the social media environment of 2018 had A crisis that began with standable public expectations for justice. existed in 2008, would it have been harder to subprime mortgage defaults led to the ignore criticism? In 2014 you wrote, “We did save the economy, collapse of Lehman The din of criticism had no problem getting through Brothers, raising fears but we lost the country doing it.” Did that loss even before Twitter. Might Twitter have made it eas- of a systemic banking seem greater after the 2016 election? failure that government ier for the policymaker to communicate? Maybe. It No. We were dramatically better off politically and leaders quickly – does seem to force one to distill a complex point to and controversially – economically with the choices we made, relative to scrambled to avoid, its essential core. Of course, very few problems and the alternative. I don’t think there is a credible politi- with eventual success. fewer solutions can be reduced to 144 characters. PHOTOGRAPHS: CATE GILLON/GETTY IMAGES; TOP, JEREMY BALES/BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES April 2007 March 2008 October 2008 November 2008 May 2009 A leading subprime mortgage The New York Fed provides President Bush signs into law AIG receives $40 billion Regulators release results lender, New Century Financial, $29 billion in term financing the act that creates the through TARP, while Citigroup of stress tests on the 19 files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy to help JPMorgan buy Bear $700 billion Troubled Asset and Bank of America receive biggest US banks, all of which protection. Stearns. Relief Program, or TARP. another injection of $20 received TARP funds, and September 2008 The Treasury buys $125 billion each. say 10 of them need to raise August-December 2007 billion worth of preferred about $75 billion combined The Fed cuts the discount The government places February 2009 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac stock in nine banks in to endure a possibly deeper rate four times by a total of 1.5 The Fed, FDIC and other into conservatorship, Lehman exchange for TARP funds. recession. percentage points and does so government agencies eight more times in 2008 as Brothers Holdings seeks announce a plan to “stress December 2009 the economy weakens. bankruptcy protection and test” banks. Bank of America, Citigroup Bank of America announces a and Wells Fargo say they’ll buy plan to buy Merrill Lynch back all the stock they sold to Timeline source: Reuters for $50 billion. the Treasury under TARP. b ru n s w i c k rev i ew · i s s u e 1 7 · 2 0 1 9 15
GEITHNER 2008 CRASH You’ve talked about the danger of acting too soon versus the danger of acting too late in a financial crisis. In seeking that balance, on which side would you err? There’s no bright line. In the early stage of a crisis, it make sense to move gradually. But when you are at the point where things are eroding rapidly and the run is spreading, then you have to be able to escalate quickly, with overwhelming force. You avoided reading news stories about yourself during the crisis. Any other advice on how to stay true to course amid criticism? Just focus on figuring out what is most likely to work. Don’t worry about whether people will praise or criticize you for it. Your analysis of your strengths in Stress Test is You entered the New York Fed never having Mr. Geithner’s first public balanced by a depiction of yourself as impatient, statement as Secretary worked in a bank, never having received an foul-mouthed and lacking charisma as a public of the US Treasury in economics PhD. Was that outsider status in any early 2009 did not go well. speaker. Is there an advantage to appearing way helpful, perhaps giving you a broader view of "My voice wavered. I human as a leader, rather than flawless? tried to sound forceful, options during the crisis? but I just sounded like The important thing is to be true to what you believe I think it was more a disadvantage than advantage. someone trying to sound is right. Without that, you will be less than authen- There is a lot of valuable knowledge about the struc- forceful," he wrote in his tic, and it will be harder to earn credibility. Nothing 2014 memoir, Stress Test. ture of our financial system that I wish had had be- good can come from a desire to appear infallible. fore I took that job. It sounds as if you slept about three hours a night In recommending you for the New York Fed for two years during the crisis. How does one job, Larry Summers praised your willingness to maintain one’s physical and mental health during disagree with him. Is that a quality you seek in such a prolonged period? people you hire? I need a fair amount of sleep and worked hard to Of course. You need people around you who are preserve some room for that. My most important willing to challenge you, and challenge each other. advantage was my relationship with my wife, Car- Good decision making, in any context, but particu- ole, and her calm mix of strength and wisdom. And larly in a crisis, with its mix of high stakes and high I was very lucky to be able to work with, to share the uncertainty, requires a level of trust so that there can fear and burden, with a wonderfully talented and be open debate. It works better with people who ethical group of public servants. are curious, willing to change their minds, express PHOTOGRAPH: ANDREW HARRER/BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES doubt and work together. It works better with peo- You’ve said that you identified with the emotional ple who are willing to be for stuff, not just against intensity of “The Hurt Locker,” a film about a stuff; people able to think about what to do, not just soldier who so misses the drama and danger able to describe a problem. of war that he returns to it. Do you ever miss the intensity of battling the financial collapse? After you and Larry Summers placed Steve Would you do it again? Rattner in charge of the federal auto task force, No, I don’t miss that type of intensity, and I don’t he fired the CEO of General Motors without miss the crushing weight of responsibility. I miss the consulting you – for which you’ve praised him. Is people, though. And for those of you who haven’t it important not to micromanage a crisis? had the thrill and the privilege of working for your Sure. If you have good people around you, as we country, I would encourage you to try it. u certainly did, then it’s easier to give them responsi- kevin helliker, a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist, bility. But you can’t be too remote. You have to have is Editor in Chief of the Brunswick Review. He is based sufficient depth in the substance of the key choices. in New York. 16 b ru n s w i c k rev i ew · i s s u e 1 7 · 2 0 1 9
N eal wolin was seated at his desk as brought to the job a law degree from Yale, a gradu- Deputy Counsel to President Barack ate degree in economics from Oxford University, a Obama in early 2009 when a call came decade of experience as a high-level government from Rahm Emanuel. attorney and a prosperous run in the C-suite at The “Get the @&!% over to Treasury,” said Hartford. During his previous stint in government, Mr. Emanuel, the President’s Chief of Staff. Mr. Wolin had served as General Counsel to the Only a few weeks earlier, Mr. Wolin had moved Thrust into Treasury, working with Mr. Geithner – then a se- from Connecticut to Washington to join the new a lead role nior Treasury official focused on international eco- administration as Deputy Counsel to President at Treasury nomic policy – on financial crises in Mexico, Russia during the Obama for economic policy and Deputy Assistant and Asia. to the President. This being the winter of 2009, he Their boss back then, Secretary of the Trea- was not surprised to be dispatched to the Depart- financial crisis, sury Larry Summers, was now serving as President ment of Treasury. The financial sector as well as the Brunswick CEO Obama’s Director of the National Economic Coun- economy required urgent attention. neal wolin cil. The three of them, competitors on the tennis In the following weeks, Mr. Wolin kept one desk helped shape court since the Clinton administration, now be- at the White House and another at Treasury, each the policies that longed to a chorus of experts debating how to re- with separate calendars and email accounts. restored the verse the scariest economic downturn of their lives. Then on a Sunday afternoon he received a call US economy. “The fact that many of us knew each other The Call of DUTY from Timothy F. Geithner, Secretary of the Trea- sury, asking Mr. Wolin to serve as Deputy Secretary. The call lasted 30 seconds. At a moment when the survival of the finan- cial system required emergency action, Mr. Wolin turned out to be very important,” Mr. Wolin re- calls. “Naturally there was lots of back and forth, different perspectives on how to move forward and even a fair amount of tension. But it was all undergirded by a set of long relationships and a deep sense of trust.” When Mr. Wolin arrived at Treasury that Feb- ruary, Congress was demanding that the agency limit executive pay at firms that had partaken of the $700 billion bailout fund the US government had established the previous fall. Outrage over Wall Street pay was a huge distraction from efforts to strengthen the economy, fix the banking system and restore confidence. PHOTOGRAPH: COURTESY OF THE US DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY Mr. Wolin had the idea of taking that focus off of Treasury by hiring a “special master” to oversee compensation at firms that had received bailouts. Mr. Wolin also knew exactly whom to hire: Ken- neth Feinberg, a mediator who, among other ex- periences, had served as Special Master of the US government’s September 11th Victim Compensa- tion Fund. Mr. Wolin’s recommendation turned out to be crucial. “The suggestion to largely remove Treasury from individual decisions about executive compen- sation helped insulate President Obama and then- Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner from one of the most polarizing facets of the crisis response,” said a 2013 Washington Post story. b ru n s w i c k rev i ew · i s s u e 1 7 · 2 0 1 9 17
2008 CRASH NEAL WOLIN Mr. Wolin proceeded to play the role of arbiter ate on issues that had to be resolved before Dodd- between Mr. Feinberg and Herbert Allison, the Frank could be enacted,” wrote Robert Kaiser, the head of the government bailout fund, whose re- veteran Washington Post Editor, in Act of Congress, sponsibilities included retaining top-level manage- his 2013 book on the making of Dodd-Frank. ment at firms now owned in part by the govern- “A round-faced, jovial man with curly dark hair, his ment. “Herb and Ken would have very different relaxed talent for dealing with people disguised an perspectives on how to treat executives’ compen- intensely competitive personality. He was one of sation,” says Mr. Wolin. “I’d tell Herb, ‘Ken’s job is the few Obama administration officials involved in to make sure that compensation is at appropriate financial regulatory reform who had actual experi- levels given that companies have taken in a lot of ence working in the financial sector. He was smart taxpayer money.’ And I’d tell Ken, ‘These compa- and floridly profane. His colleagues loved him.” nies have taken in a lot of taxpayer money, and we “It was a team effort,” says Mr. Wolin. He starts can’t constrain pay to the extent that it impairs the to cite names – Michael Barr, Diana Farrell, Austan ability of these companies to perform.’” Goolsbee, Cass Sunstein – but the list is too long. Besides working to repair the proper function- “You put 40 people in that cauldron at that mo- ing of the financial system, the Treasury was under ment in time and none of us will ever forget it. It pressure to help design legislation to decrease the probability of future systemic failures. Mr. Wolin ”WE STARTED was intense. It was morning, noon and night. But it was a pretty well-oiled machine. Not to be melo- played a central role in producing the 122-page BY SAYING TO dramatic about it, but it felt like the stakes were white paper that eventually became the 2,200-page OURSELVES, pretty high.” Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer As Deputy Treasury Secretary, Mr. Wolin gen- Protection Act. ‘WHAT DO WE erally stayed behind the scenes, though when he “We started by saying to ourselves, ‘What do we THINK IS RIGHT? did appear in public he displayed a penchant for think is right? What do we think the moment calls humor. “Mr. Wolin is relentlessly cheerful,” said a for? What are the things that government policy WHAT DO New York Times story in 2010. “He laughs at his makers must have in order to best avoid another WE THINK THE penchant for legalese. At a recent press briefing, he financial crisis? What are the tools the government would need to deal with a crisis if it were to happen MOMENT said the White House would resist efforts to weaken consumer finance protections. ‘A carve-out for auto again – which we assume it will?’” CALLS FOR?'" dealers would be sort of a paradigmatic example of The process of creating and lobbying for that leg- such a weakening move,’ he said. islation required Mr. Wolin and his team to negoti- “‘It would be a what example?’ one reporter asked. ate with a vast array of parties: the White House, “‘A good example,’ he replied.” both houses of Congress, consumer advocates, the During his long stint as Deputy Secretary – the heads of other financial regulatory agencies and of longest in Treasury history – Mr. Wolin served as course leaders of industry. “We had input from the Chief Operating Officer, essentially managing the big banks, the community banks and every other department, including a unit charged with com- piece of the financial sector,” Mr. Wolin recalls. bating terrorist financing. That responsibility sent At one point, the passage of Dodd-Frank was him to places like Pakistan, Yemen and West Africa. threatened by a splinter group of Congressional When Mr. Wolin proposed pressuring Afghanistan Democrats. “The centrist New Democrat Coali- to monitor and regulate Kabul Bank, the nation’s tion, which had some members with close ties to largest bank, much of the federal government re- the financial industry, threatened to block (Dodd- sisted, citing the bank’s close ties to Afghanistan Frank) unless we barred states from passing con- President Hamid Karzai, a US ally. But President sumer regulations tougher than federal rules,” Mr. Obama backed Mr. Wolin, who met with Mr. Kar- Geithner wrote in his bestselling 2014 memoir, zai to start a process that led to reforms of the bank. Stress Test. “They backed down after Neal Wolin In 2013, with the recovery in its fourth year, Mr. deftly brokered some compromise language.” Geithner left the Treasury. In the acknowledge- It helped that Mr. Wolin had credibility on both ments section of the memoir he published the next sides of the aisle. He began his federal government year, Mr. Geithner wrote: “Neal Wolin, who para- career during the George H.W. Bush administration chuted in at a fraught time as deputy secretary, was as counsel to two CIA directors, both Republicans. my closest adviser on the most important chal- “Wolin was instrumental in finding compromis- lenges we faced, all while helping to manage the es with difficult members of both House and Sen- vast Treasury empire. He ably represented Treasury 18 b ru n s w i c k rev i ew · i s s u e 1 7 · 2 0 1 9
around the world and across the street in the White Treasury Secretary ground for crisis,” says Mr. Wolin. “You’re under a Timothy Geithner, right, House Situation Room, where the National Secu- lot of time pressure. You’re under a lot of scrutiny. talks with his deputy, rity Council met constantly.” Neal Wolin, at the There are vast numbers of stakeholders each with Mr. Wolin was planning to leave the Treasury Treasury building in July, their own perspectives on what ought to be the right 2010. Mr. Wolin joined around the same time. But President Obama asked Brunswick as CEO in answer or the preferred path. And the domains of him to stay on to serve as acting Secretary of the February, 2018. policy, politics and communications are necessarily Treasury until Jack Lew was confirmed as the next deeply intertwined.” secretary. When Mr. Wolin left the Treasury later Since leaving government, Mr. Wolin hasn’t spo- that year, President Obama said in a statement to the ken much publicly about his Treasury experience, PHOTOGRAPH: ANDREW HARRER/BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES Washington Post that Mr. Wolin’s “deep knowledge though in 2015 he delivered a speech about it to se- and excellent judgment helped us … pass tough niors at his alma mater, Evanston Township High new Wall Street reform, strengthen our financial School, just north of Chicago. Student blogger Ben system, foster growth here at home, and promote Osterlund, writing about the speech, outlined Mr. economic development around the world.” Wolin’s message and his legacy in a few words: “His Looking back at his decision to leave The Hart- perspective included details on what it was like to ford for the Obama administration, Mr. Wolin says handle the financial crisis while working in the the terrifying state of the economy at that moment Treasury. Wolin and others at Treasury acted to put was part of the attraction. “If you have public pol- in place policy that would avoid a complete melt- icy or public service as part of your DNA, it was an down, and set the economy on a healthy path so irresistible moment to go serve,” he says. such a crisis wouldn’t happen again.” u Mr. Wolin says the experience helped prepare him kevin helliker, a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist, for his current role as CEO of Brunswick, a firm that is Editor in Chief of the Brunswick Review. He is based offers crisis counsel. “Government is a good training in New York. b ru n s w i c k rev i ew · i s s u e 1 7 · 2 0 1 9 19
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