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The biopharmaceutical anomaly - feature - Nature
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The biopharmaceutical anomaly
Investment and funding has continued to flow into biotech, unlike most business sectors. But with healthcare
and hospital budgets increasingly under pressure, do belt-tightening and consolidation lie ahead? Melanie Senior
investigates, with additional reporting by Riku Lähteenmäki.

T
       he biopharmaceutical industry largely
       has been spared from the public
       market rout that has gutted most
economic sectors since COVID-19 hit. After
an initial, indiscriminate shock to stock
prices in March 2020, investment in biotech
companies listed on the stock exchanges
has actually increased. The Nasdaq
Biotechnology Index emerged from the
slump to reach a five-year high — up 11%
since the start of the year, following a 20%
rise in 2019. Biotech initial public offering
(IPOs) have also picked up; in June, the over
two dozen 2020 listings had together raised
nearly $8 billion — more than over the same
period in 2019. In early June, CAR-T cell
therapy maker Legend Biotech raised $424
million in the largest ever Nasdaq listing by
a Chinese biotech.
    “The capital markets remain open
and active,” to the surprise of many, says
Geoffrey Porges, senior biopharmaceuticals          Ruslan Grechka / Alamy Stock Photo.
analyst at SVB Leerink. The non-
discretionary nature of healthcare — and
the sector’s key role in finding solutions to           Follow-on public financing has also              was the first COVID-19 therapy to receive
the pandemic — have also attracted a flood          been healthy, topping $19 billion so far this        US Food and Drug Administration (FDA)
of generalist and retail investors as they flee     year, including almost $2 billion raised by          Emergency Use Authorization. Regeneron’s
struggling sectors like retail, restaurants and     RNA-focused Moderna in two separate                  60% share-price gain since the start of the
airlines. Private biotech financing also had        share offerings in February and May 2020 —           year comes thanks to a monoclonal antibody
a record first quarter. The pandemic, which         the earlier one at $19 per share, the                (mAb) duo due to enter the clinic in June
has been poison to most sectors of industry,        later at four times that. Moderna is the             and rheumatoid arthritis drug Kevzara
has brought funds to biopharmaceutical              breakout ‘COVID-19 performer’ so far:                (sarilumab), a human IgG1 mAb targeting
enterprises from an even wider spread of            its shares have trebled since the end of             the interleukin-6 receptor, being investigated
investors than normal.                              2019 on the back of heated excitement                as a therapy for patients with severe
                                                    around its RNA-based vaccine candidate               COVID-19 disease. Infectious-disease- and
Crisis? What crisis?                                against the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2),          immunology-focused Vir Biotechnology
For some biotech companies, listing now             slated to start phase 3 trials in July.              has also nearly trebled in value since
— in the midst of what economists call              (Press-released interim data on eight                January, to $4 billion, after announcing
the worst recession in living memory — is           patients from a small study led by the US            COVID-19-related collaborations on
easier than in late 2019, when the China–           National Institute of Allergy and Infectious         antibody therapies with GlaxoSmithKline
US trade war caused market jitters. ADC             Diseases claimed that the candidate,                 and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, itself up 20%
Therapeutics, for instance, pulled an IPO in        mRNA-1273, generated an antibody                     since the start of the year.
October 2019 and raised an oversubscribed           response similar to that seen in                         By mid-May 2020, there were over a
$235 million in early May 2020 (Table 1).           convalescing patients.)                              hundred treatments and more than a dozen
Others are seizing the advantage to raise               Valued at over $23 billion, loss-making          vaccine candidates in human testing across
money, even if they don’t really need to:           Moderna is just one of a growing list of             the wider biopharmaceuticals industry,
gene therapy venture Generation Bio raised          biotechs who have mobilized resources to find        academic institutions and non-profits.
$230 million in a June IPO, after raising           a vaccine or therapeutic for COVID-19 —              This extraordinary effort is in part enabled
$110 million in private money just four             and seen their shares rise as a result. Also         by the healthy financing environment for
months earlier. Its assets are still preclinical.   riding the COVID-19 wave: Gilead Sciences,           biotech during 2019 (and much of the
So are those of Boston-based gene therapy           whose failed hepatitis C virus (HCV)                 previous decade). Last year saw large boosts
group Akouos, which recently filed for              small-molecule candidate remdesivir, an              to industry revenue, even higher rises in
a $100-million IPO, having raised $105              injectable nucleoside analog that inhibits           R&D spending, and chart-topping up-front
million in a series B in March.                     viral RNA-dependent RNA polymerase,                  partnership financing.
798                                                                  Nature Biotechnology | VOL 38 | July 2020 | 798–811 | www.nature.com/naturebiotechnology
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Table 1 | Top ten IPOs of 2019
Company (lead underwriters)                                                                                                  Amount raised          Date                   Listing       Phase of
                                                                                                                             ($ millions)           completed              location      development
Genmab (BofA Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley)                                                                                  582                    17 July                NASDAQa       Market
10X Genomics (J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, BofA Merrill Lynch, Cowen)                                                         449                    12 September           NASDAQ        Market
BridgeBio Pharma (J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Jefferies, SVB Leerink, Piper Jaffray,                                         401                    26 June                NASDAQ        Phase 3
BMO Capital Markets, Raymond James)
Adaptive Biotechnologies (Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, BofA Merrill Lynch, Cowen,                                             345                    26 June                NASDAQ        Market
Guggenheim Securities, William Blair, BTIG
CStone Pharmaceuticals (Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, UBS, China Merchants                                                  328                    25 February            HKEX          Phase 3
Securities
Gossamer Bio (BofA Merrill Lynch, SVB Leerink)                                                                               317                    7 February             NASDAQ        Phase 2
Cellid (Morgan Stanley, Citic CLSA)                                                                                          277                    20 February            KOSDAQ        Phase 1/2
Alphamab Oncology (Morgan Stanley, Citic CLSA)                                                                               234                    12 December            HKEX          Phase 3
IGM Biosciences (Piper Jaffray)                                                                                              201                    12 December                          Preclinical
Turning Point Therapeutics (Goldman Sachs, SVB Leerink, Wells Fargo, Canaccord                                               191                    18 April               NASDAQ        Phase 1/2
Genuity)
a
 GenMab listed in 2000 on the Danish exchange. HKEX, Hong Kong Exchanges; KOSDAQ, Korea Exchange. Source: BCIQ BioCentury Online Intelligence

    The COVID-19 effort has generated
its own flurry of deals — including, most                          Box 1 | The numbers
recently, Merck’s May 2020 acquisition
of private Austrian biotech Themis, with                           Nature Biotechnology has published a                                            the unique attributes and situations
its measles virus vector-based vaccine                             report on public biotech companies                                              that make up the research-driven
technology. The pandemic has not curbed                            using a similar methodology since 1996.                                         biotech sector.
big biotech or big pharma’s broader pipeline                       Our definition of what constitutes a                                               The data were provided by consultants
hunger, either. Non-COVID-19-related                               biotech company has changed with                                                Ernst & Young. The top-ten lists and
deal-making has slowed, but not stopped.                           the industry, as have our methods                                               other aggregate lists are sourced
It is mostly restricted to partners with                           for gathering the information that                                              appropriately, although mostly they
an existing relationship. (Carrying out                            powers this article. We generally                                               are generated by an analysis of data
first-time meetings and due diligence over                         include R&D-driven companies built                                              supplied by BioCentury. In this regard,
video conferencing is tricky.) Prices are                          on applications of biological organisms,                                        because investors do not stratify the
holding up, at least for popular assets.                           systems or processes, or the provision                                          biotech sector as stringently as Nature
In late May, Gilead bought a $200-million                          of specialist services that facilitate                                          Biotechnology, we used money figures from
equity stake in Hayward, California-based                          biological understanding. We exclude                                            across the biotech and biopharmaceutical
Arcus Biosciences, at a price nearly triple                        pharmaceutical companies, medical                                               arena to best highlight trends. Companies
the company’s valuation during most of                             device firms and contract research                                              delisted in 2019 from major exchanges
2019. The deal mirrored Gilead’s noteworthy                        organizations to better focus on                                                were excluded.
2019 collaboration with Galapagos of
Mechelen, Belgium — in structure, if
not size. A further $175 million up front
sealed Gilead’s access to a palette of cancer
drug candidates, led by a humanized
                                                                          2014
IgG1 mAb targeting TIGIT (T-cell                                                     8.54 10.74 9.04       21.49     3.27           36.99
immunoreceptor with immunoglobulin                                        2015
and ITIM [immunoreceptor tyrosine‐based                                          7.49           28.69        13.99                        50.27       2.88                 58.46
inhibitory motif] domains) in phase 2                                     2016
                                                                                                                                                                                               IPO
                                                                                                                                                                                               Follow-on
trials for non-small-cell lung cancer, in                                        6.91 9.97      12.52                44.82                2.76             62.96
                                                                   Year

                                                                                                                                                                                               Venture
various combinations with the anti-PD1                                    2017                                                                                                                 Debt and other
(programmed cell death receptor 1) fully                                         5.50        22.32       15.53        21.35        6.09              58.68                                     PIPEs

human IgG4 mAb zimberelimab and AB928,                                    2018                                                                                                                 Partnerships
                                                                                     10.96       25.58             23.40           17.61 3.58                      77.82
a small-molecule adenosine A2a/A2b
receptor antagonist. (On March 2, before the                              2019
                                                                                     10.61      22.54        21.50           13.80 2.47                    72.88
pandemic roiled markets, Gilead forked out
                                                                                 0              20          40               60               80     100           120             140   160         180
$4.9 billion, also at a healthy premium, for                                                                                        Amount raised ($ billions)
five-year-old immune-oncology firm Forty
Seven and its humanized IgG4κ anti-CD47                          Fig. 1 | Global biotech financing. Financing over the past six years. Source: BCIQ BioCentury Online
mAb antibody magrolimab, in phase 2 trials                       Intelligence.

Nature Biotechnology | VOL 38 | July 2020 | 798–811 | www.nature.com/naturebiotechnology                                                                                                                   799
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for myelodysplastic syndrome and acute                         4,500
myelogenous leukemia.)                                                                NBI
    The sector’s public prominence amid the                                           S&P 500
pandemic may also have reduced the threat
                                                               4,000
of immediate curbs on US drug pricing,
according to many analysts — a threat that
cast a shadow over the industry during 2018
and 2019. President Trump is looking to                        3,500
the sector to help him navigate out of the

                                                       Index
lockdown, restart the economy and win
another election: hardly the time to clobber
                                                               3,000
it with unfriendly new rules, such as an
international reference price index.

Clouds may be looming                                          2,500
It’s unclear whether the good times will last.
“It’s quite understandable that companies
are raising capital now, while markets remain                  2,000
strong,” says Joshua Schimmer, senior
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“We may still see a lot of volatility,” he says —                                                                                  Date
though acknowledging that, if the sector
continues to weather the crisis as well as          Fig. 2 | Nasdaq Biotechnology Index over time. As of 6/1/2020. NBI, Nasdaq Biotechnology Index; S&P,
it has been, “it’s hard to imagine what else        Standard & Poor’s 500 Index.
could derail it.”
     Until now, trillions of dollars of
government support have cushioned the
full impact of lockdown on employment                Box 2 | Heady IPOs in 2019
and household budgets (including, in the
United States, the affordability of health           Danish antibody company Genmab’s                                           of the region’s home-grown innovative
insurance) and created a sharp disconnect            second coming (it listed in 2000 on the                                    biotech sector, spurred on by the Hong
between stock markets and the underlying             Danish stock exchange) topped the overall                                  Kong stock exchange’s recent acceptance
economy. If and when that support dries              IPO ranks. It raised $582 million in July,                                 of pre-revenue companies and the
up and markets collapse, all but the                 boosted by a mature portfolio including                                    ongoing US–China trade war, which has
best-capitalized companies could suffer.             three approved (partnered) drugs and                                       driven Chinese money back home. The
Negative news from the COVID-19 pipeline             20 clinical development programs                                           Hong Kong IPO scene was bookended
will also take the heat off healthcare stocks        (Table 1). The year marked Nasdaq’s                                        by two cancer-focused biotechs: CStone
and some firms’ ability to raise capital.            emergence as the definitive market of                                      Pharmaceuticals, which raised $328
A second lockdown before a drug or vaccine           choice for European biotechs, offering                                     million in February, and Alphamab
is found will mean further trial delays              access to more capital, more specialist                                    Oncology, which drew in $234 million in
across non-COVID-19 R&D, stretching the              investors and greater liquidity than local                                 December.
resilience of biotech companies and their            European exchanges. All but one of the                                         2019’s top ten IPO cohort was
investors even more.                                 top eight European-company IPOs were                                       a relatively young one: six were
     Slowing markets will disproportionately         in the United States. German cancer                                        founded within the last decade; three
affect smaller and pre-revenue companies,            immunotherapy and vaccine company                                          (BridgeBio, Gossamer Bio and CStone
including those whose clinical trials have           BioNtech raised $148 million in October;                                   Pharmaceuticals) were just four years old.
ground to a halt during the pandemic                 its upward share trajectory received a                                     The year’s mostly buoyant IPO market also
lockdown. The biotech industry has raised            COVID-19 boost in 2020 as the company                                      continued to draw in non-traditional
over $140 billion in debt over the last five         advanced a handful of RNA-based                                            funders, including crossover investors
years — including a further $10.9 billion so         COVID-19 vaccine candidates into                                           (which can invest in both private and
far in 2020. Some of this debt is plain vanilla      trials. BridgeBio Pharma raked in                                          public companies), private equity investors
loans to large, cash-generative biotechs like        over $400 million in 2019’s third-largest                                  (normally focused on revenue-generating
Amgen. But ‘convertible’ loans — which can           Nasdaq IPO, with its enticing suite of                                     firms) and sovereign wealth funds.
be converted into equity at a later date, such       clinical-stage precision medicines tackling                                Deep-pocketed firms like Blackstone,
as at a subsequent financing round — have            rare genetic diseases and genetically                                      KKR, RA Capital and Bain Capital put
also become more popular over the past               defined cancers.                                                           money behind pre-IPO candidates, helping
several years among smaller, pre-revenue                 Three of 2019’s top ten IPOs were                                      bounce them onto public markets and
companies, in part because they delay the            in Asia. This marks the continuing rise                                    draw in more public funds.
tricky business of valuing such groups. In
early March 2020, BridgeBio Pharma raised
a higher-than-anticipated $475 million in
convertible notes; Gossamer Bio raised $200             In good times, borrowing is easy, and it                                equity offering). But in tougher times, some
million’s worth in May, alongside a smaller         allows companies to avoid diluting the value                                companies may be unable to service or repay
equity offering.                                    of their shares (which is what happens in an                                their debt, leading to bankruptcy — or a fire

800                                                                          Nature Biotechnology | VOL 38 | July 2020 | 798–811 | www.nature.com/naturebiotechnology
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sale. Convertible loans, whose terms may
                                                        Table 2 | Top ten follow-on financings of 2019
vary from months to several years, may
also need to be repaid in full if a company             Company                                          Amount raised ($ millions         Date
fails to meet fundraising targets; lenders              Sage Therapeutics                                575                               02/27/2019
get priority over shareholders in the case of
insolvency.                                             Ascendis Pharma                                  575                               03/05/2019
    There are already signs of trouble.                 Seattle Genetics                                 575                               07/23/2019
Companies relying on revenues from a                    Reata Pharmaceuticals                            505                               11/13/2019
narrow portfolio of hospital drugs have had
                                                        Amarin                                           460                               07/18/2019
to cut costs or sell out at bargain prices.
In May 2020, Portola Pharmaceuticals,                   Deciphera Pharmaceuticals                        460                               08/14/2019
which sells Andexxa (recombinant human                  Alnylam Pharmaceuticals                          388                               01/14/2019
coagulation factor Xa inactivated-zhzo)                 Sarepta Therapeutics                             375                               03/05/2019
for excessive bleeding, was picked up by
                                                        Blueprint Medicines                              345                               03/28/2019
Alexion Pharmaceuticals for $1.4 billion,
or $18 per share — well below Portola’s                 Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical                        340                               02/26/2019
pre-COVID-19 share price of close to $30.               Source: BCIQ BioCentury Online Intelligence
Sage Therapeutics — whose $575-million
follow-on financings topped the league in
2018 and 2019 — in early April announced
cuts to head count and costs, facing                    Table 3 | Top ten revenue-producing biotechs of 2019
dwindling sales of its hospital-administered            Company                                       2019 revenue ($ millions)      % change from 2018
postpartum depression medicine Zulresso
(brexanolone) and an idle sales force.                  Amgen                                         23,362                         –2%
    On the IPO markets, Pitchbook                       Gilead Sciences                               22,449                         1%
reports a flurry of listings by ‘shell’                 Biogen                                        14,378                         7%
companies (also known as special-purpose
                                                        Regeneron Pharmaceuticals                     7,863                          17%
acquisition companies), set up to buy
promising yet cash-hungry targets.                      Alexion Pharmaceuticals                       4,991                          21%
Tübingen, Germany-based T-cell cancer                   Vertex Pharmaceuticals                        4,163                          37%
immunotherapy-focused Immatics                          Illumina                                      3,543                          6%
Biotechnologies in March 2020
                                                        bioMérieux                                    3,002                          8%
reverse-merged into Nasdaq-listed Arya
Sciences Acquisition, raising $252 million.             Incyte                                        2,159                          15%
    COVID-19’s full impact on the sector                Novozymes                                     2,159                          –2%
has yet to play out. A funding squeeze may
                                                        Source: Ernst and Young
lead to better capital efficiency — a skill
some companies lost amid the funding
bonanza of the last few years. Industry’s
rapid, collaborative response to the virus             and cell-based therapies and drugs for rare             partnership monies topped $14 billion,
outbreak, along with some promises,                    diseases — hot spots in the years up to and             beating 2018, largely thanks to Gilead’s
such as from AstraZeneca, to provide                   including 2019 — may rapidly be viewed                  $3.95-billion payment to partner Galapagos.
any eventual vaccine at cost, may help                 as less affordable as population health                 The Nasdaq Biotechnology Index also
restore the reputation of a sector criticized          measures are prioritized, and if economists’            performed a lot better than in 2018. Much of
for price-gouging, hiding bad data and                 predictions of a deep, dark recession bear              the 20% overall rise came in the last quarter
neglecting diseases of the developing world.           out. “I worry that much of the money                    of 2019, more than making up for 2018’s 9%
    Yet the drug pricing debate, if pushed             flowing into the sector today isn’t going into          decline (Fig. 2).
down the road, hasn’t gone away. The sector’s          the right places,” says the fund manager.                   The $10.6-billion total IPO haul — only
value to society has never been clearer, but                                                                   a fraction below the previous year’s — was
what society can afford to pay for that value          A look back at 2019                                     dominated, as usual, by listings in the
is far less so, particularly as economies              2019 can seem either a long time ago or just            United States. But Asia’s share of IPO money
reopen amid mass unemployment and                      yesterday, thanks to the distorting effect              increased from 32% to 42%, filling the hole
heavily indebted governments. “It’s a delicate         of a global pandemic. Yet public biotech                left by a dwindling number of European
time for the industry,” says one analyst.              companies’ resilience so far is due, in part, to        listings. Targeted cancer immunotherapy
    Longer term, this pandemic should                  2019’s healthy financials, increased revenues           and rare genetic diseases remained
mean more public funding for the life                  and robust investment in research and devel­            white-hot (Table 1 and Box 2).
sciences, driving emboldened private                   opment (Box 1 and Supplementary Table 1).                   Follow-on financing in 2019 totaled $22.5
investors to follow. “Investment into pharma               Capital continued to flow strongly into             billion — a slight fall from 2018, but still
and healthcare will continue to increase,”             the biotech sector in 2019, even if the figures         including four late-stage companies that
predicts one UK-based fund manager.                    didn’t quite reach the heady heights achieved           each raised over half a billion (Table 2). Two
    The focus of this investment may change,           in 2018. Total public biopharma fundraising             of those, cancer-focused antibody–drug
though. Governments are now much more                  was over $122 billion, with IPO and                     conjugate (ADC) company Seattle Genetics
likely to prioritize vaccines, anti-infectives         follow-on offerings bringing in about $33               and depression-focused Sage Therapeutics,
and preventative care. High-priced gene                billion of that (Fig. 1). Up-front (committed)          were also in 2018’s top ten. Three dozen

Nature Biotechnology | VOL 38 | July 2020 | 798–811 | www.nature.com/naturebiotechnology                                                                  801
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       Box 3 | Vertex wins chase for revenues

       Amgen clung onto number one in the                            molecules bictegravir (HIV integrase                                                                cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance
       revenue league, cashing in over $23 billion —                 inhibitor), emtricitabine (nucleoside analog                                                        regulator (CFTR) gene. Vertex bumped up
       1% below its 2018 haul (Table 3).                             inhibitor of HIV reverse transcriptase) and                                                         its R&D spending by 24%.
       A legal victory against Sandoz in August                      tenofovir alafenamide (nucleotide analog                                                                Biogen’s 10% drop in market
       2019 pushed biosimilar competition to                         inhibitor of HIV reverse transcriptase) —                                                           capitalization over the year hid a very
       number-one earner Enbrel (etanercept)                         plus near doubling of sales of its CAR-T cell                                                       bumpy ride. High-profile Alzheimer’s
       years down the road; Enbrel price increases                   therapy Yescarta (albeit from a low base)                                                           disease candidate aducanumab, a fully
       and volume growth across other products                       allowed the big biotech to blunt the impact                                                         human anti-amyloid-β IgG1 mAb, failed
       enabled the biotech to neutralize the impact                  of competition to its HCV franchise. That                                                           futility analyses in two phase 3 trials in
       of price erosion and competition elsewhere                    HCV expertise keeps on giving, though:                                                              March, wiping a quarter off Biogen’s value.
       across its aging portfolio, including to                      Gilead’s value has risen by >12% since the                                                          But October brought a surprise resurrection
       Neulasta (pegfilgrastim; recombinant                          end of 2019, to $92 billion, thanks to its                                                          attempt, when Biogen announced it would
       methionyl human G-CSF (filgrastim)                            failed HCV drug candidate remdesivir. On                                                            submit the drug to FDA after all, based on
       conjugated to monomethoxypolyethylene                         May 1, the adenosine analog became the                                                              a new analysis of the data that included
       glycol). Management declared the start of a                   first COVID-19 therapy to receive FDA                                                               longer-term data from some patients.
       new era of product-driven growth; fittingly,                  Emergency Use Authorization.                                                                        Submission has since been delayed, but
       R&D spending grew 10%. The company                                Vertex’s 33% value uptick over 2019 —                                                           this ray of hope, plus ex-US growth for
       also expanded its geographic reach,                           worth $14 billion in market capitalization —                                                        spinal muscular atrophy drug Spinraza
       paying $2.7 billion for a minority stake in                   tracked a similarly sized revenue increase.                                                         (nusinersen), helped nudge Biogen revenues
       China’s BeiGene, which will commercialize                     Both were driven by uptake of its most                                                              to $14.3 billion, slightly higher than the
       Amgen’s existing cancer drugs in China and                    recent cystic fibrosis medicine combination                                                         previous year. R&D spending fell 13%.
       co-develop new ones.                                          Symdeko (also called Symkevi; small                                                                     Biogen generates three times Vertex’s
          Gilead’s $22.4 billion in 2019 revenues                    molecules tezacaftor/ivacaftor and                                                                  revenue, but Vertex is valued more highly,
       were almost unchanged, signaling a                            ivacaftor) and early US approval and                                                                given its growth prospects. COVID-19
       recovery from 2018’s declines. A growing                      launch of Trikafta (elexacaftor/tezacaftor/                                                         has widened that gap: Vertex’s market
       HIV portfolio, driven by Biktarvy triple                      ivacaftor and ivacaftor), targeted at patients                                                      capitalization has since soared beyond $73
       therapy — a combination of small                              with at least one F508del mutation in the                                                           billion, while Biogen’s has fallen.

a                                                                                                                      b
                       450                     Number of companies                     140,000                                                   120,000                                                             Large
                       400                     Number of employees          383                                                                            101,240                                                   Mid
                               116,597                                                 120,000                                                   100,000                                                             Small
                       350                                                                                                                                                                                           Micro
 Number of companies

                                                                                                 Number of employees

                                                                                       100,000                                                   80,000
                                                                                                                           Amount ($ millions)

                       300

                       250                73,758                                       80,000                                                    60,000

                       200                               184
                                                                                       60,000                                                    40,000                            30,398
                       150                                                                                                                                      21,550                                   23,788
                                         107                40,430                     40,000                                                                                          14,730
                                                                                                                                                 20,000                                     8,695
                       100                                                                                                                                           9,044
                                                                                                                                                                          3,245                  6,215
                                                                              23,222   20,000
                       50     32                                                                                                                      0

                        0                                                              0                                                                                                                               –9,142
                                                                                                                                                 –20,000                                                         –10,038
                             Large       Mid            Small              Micro                                                                                                                            –12,238
                                                                                                                                                                 Revenue                    R&D               Profit/loss

Fig. 3 | Public biotech barometers. a, Number of companies and employees by market capitalization. b, Public biotech revenue, R&D spending, and net profit
and loss. Large cap, ≥$5 billion; mid-cap, $1 billion to
feature

 Box 4 | Rising R&D spending targets rare diseases

 Sixty-six biotechs doubled or more than                $222 million in 2019, up 132%. Biotechs           United Therapeutics’ chart-topping
 doubled their R&D bills in 2019. Sixteen               working on cellular therapies (Autolus        228% increase in R&D spend was due to an
 of those spent more than $100 million on               Therapeutics and Rubius Therapeutics) and     $800-million up-front payment to Arena
 R&D. Over half of those 16 are working on              RNA-based medicines (Dicerna) were also       Pharmaceuticals for a global license to
 drugs for rare diseases, including Akcea               on the list.                                  phase 3 pulmonary arterial hypertension
 (whose spend rose to almost $300 million,                 Investors are excited by the potential     drug ralinepag, a prostacyclin receptor
 up 125%), newly listed immunology                      of RNA- and cell-based technologies to        agonist. Enrollment into those late-stage
 player Gossamer Bio, autoimmune- and                   generate a range of new medicines. Rare       trials is on pause. (Arena’s R&D spend also
 inflammatory-diseases focused Viela Bio                disease therapies continue to be attractive   doubled in 2019; on June 1, the company
 (which in May 2020 raised another $169                 thanks to unmet need, low competition         took advantage of frothy public markets
 million via a follow-on stock offering) and            and relatively high prices — though these     to raise $316 million in a follow-on share
 Netherlands-based Argenx, which spent                  dynamics may soon start to shift.             offering.)

                                                                                                      receptors 1 and 2 to the Fc portion
Table 4 | Top ten R&D spenders of 2019                                                                of a human IgG1) and a higher
Company                                R&D spending 2019 ($ millions)          % change from 2018     profit-contribution from partner Sanofi’s
                                                                                                      sales of atopic dermatitis drug Dupixent
Gilead Sciences                        8,306                                   98%
                                                                                                      (dupilumab; a human IgG4 mAb targeting
Amgen                                  4,116                                   10%                    the interleukin-4Rα subunit) (Table 4
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals              3,037                                   39%                    and Box 4).
Biogen                                 2,265                                   –13%                       Beijing-based BeiGene, working
                                                                                                      on targeted immuno-oncology drugs;
Vertex Pharmaceuticals                 1,755                                   24%
                                                                                                      rare-disease companies Alexion and
United Therapeutics                    1,174                                   228%                   BioMarin Pharmaceuticals; gene-therapy
Incyte                                 1,154                                   –4%                    player Sarepta; and RNA interference
BeiGene                                927                                     37%                    (RNAi)-focused Alnylam Pharmaceuticals
                                                                                                      all spent more than half a billion dollars
Alexion Pharmaceuticals                886                                     21%
                                                                                                      each on R&D.
Sarepta Therapeutics                   734                                     83%
Source: Ernst and Young                                                                               New approvals, modalities — and
                                                                                                      sources of capital
                                                                                                      Cancer and rare diseases, plus RNA-based
                                                                                                      technologies, antibodies, ADCs and
seeks to fill the hole left by its declining           17% driven by wet age-related macular          gene- and cell therapies enjoyed continued
HCV franchise. Regeneron’s $3 billion                  degeneration treatment Eylea (aflibercept;     popularity in 2019, as reflected in the list
R&D investment in 2019 was up almost                   a recombinant fusion of portions of the        of highest R&D spenders, as well as those
40% on the previous year, leading to lower             extracellular domains of human vascular        with the biggest increases in R&D. These
net income, despite revenue growth of                  endothelial growth factor (VEGF)               new modalities were boosted by regulatory

 Box 5 | Approvals keep investors interested

 Alnylam’s growing product franchise —                  IgG1κ mAb conjugated to four molecules of     $575 million of follow-on financing in
 its second drug, Givlaari (givosiran),                 the small-molecule microtubule-disrupting     July, helped the company more than
 a synthetic siRNA molecule against                     agent monomethyl auristatin E (MMAE)          double its value (to $19 billion) in 2019,
 5-aminolevulinic acid synthase, was                    via a protease-cleavable maleimidocaproyl     entering the top 10 biotechs by value. That
 approved for acute hepatic porphyria —                 valine–citrulline linker) for metastatic      meant massive returns for the company’s
 caught the attention in early 2020 of                  urothelial cancer, was approved in            largest shareholder, Baker Bros. Advisors,
 private equity group Blackstone Life                   December 2019; sales of its first ADC         a secretive hedge fund run by billionaires
 Sciences, which agreed to provide                      product, lymphoma treatment Adcetris          Julian and Felix Baker, which first invested
 $2 billion to bridge the group across to               (brentuximab vedotin; an ADC comprising       over 15 years ago.
 financial self-sustainability. Alongside a             a chimeric anti-CD30 IgG1 mAb                    Seattle Genetics’ progress continued
 $750-million loan, Blackstone bought                   conjugated to four molecules of MMAE          in 2020. The FDA and the Swiss
 half the royalties owed to Alnylam by                  via a protease-cleavable maleimidocaproyl     authorities approved small-molecule
 Novartis for cholesterol medicine inclisiran,          valine–citrulline linker), which is sold      kinase inhibitor Tukysa (tucatinib)
 as well as taking an equity stake.                     outside of the United States by Takeda,       for use in combination with capecitabine
     Seattle Genetics’ second drug, Padcev              reached $1 billion in 2019, even though       and Herceptin (trastuzumab) for
 (enfortumab vedotin-ejfv; an ADC                       US sales have slightly disappointed.          patients with HER2-positive metastatic
 comprising a fully human anti-nectin-4                 This, along with pipeline progress and        breast cancer.

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                                                                                                                    therapy encoding the human survival
Table 5 | Top ten mergers and acquisitions of 2019
                                                                                                                    motor neuron (SMN) protein under the
Target                                  Acquirer                    Value ($ millions)      Closing date            control of a cytomegalovirus enhancer/
Celgene                                 Bristol-Myers Squibb        74,000                  3 January               chicken-β-actin hybrid promoter) was
                                                                                                                    approved for spinal muscular atrophy by
Array BioPharma                         Pfizer                      11,400                  17 June
                                                                                                                    the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation
The Medicines Company                   Novartis                    9,700                   24 November             & Research division (Novartis acquired
Loxo Oncology                           Eli Lilly                   7,234                   7 January               developer AveXis for $8.7 billion in 2018);
Spark Therapeutics                      Roche                       4,300                   25 February
                                                                                                                    and Sarepta’s Vyondys 53 (golodirsen;
                                                                                                                    an antisense phosphorodiamidate
Audentes Therapeutics                   Astellas                    3,000                   2 December              morpholino oligonucleotide) got the nod,
Genomic Health                          Exact Sciences              2,800                   29 July                 after an earlier rejection, for Duchenne
ArQule                                  Merck                       2,700                   9 December              muscular dystrophy (DMD) in patients
                                                                                                                    with a confirmed mutation amenable to
Synthorx                                Sanofi                      2,500                   9 December
                                                                                                                    exon 53 skipping.
Ra Pharma                               UCB                         2,300                   10 October                  The high number of drug approvals in
Source: BCIQ BioCentury Online Intelligence                                                                         2019 allowed several large-cap (valued at
                                                                                                                    over $5 billion) yet loss-making biotechs to
                                                                                                                    graduate from single- to multiple-product
nods and growing confidence of their                           (zanubrutinib) for mantle cell lymphoma,             companies, moving them a step closer to
utility among prescribers and the physician                    a rare form of non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma;               self-sustainability. Cancer company Seattle
community. Last year, the FDA approved                         Alnylam’s Givlaari (givosiran), an                   Genetics, RNAi-focused Alnylam and
48 new medicines, more than in any year                        RNAi-based medicine for adults with acute            antisense oligonucleotide developer Sarepta
in the decade other than 2018, which saw a                     hepatic porphyria; and two gene therapies:           were among them. Biotech companies’
bumper 59 approvals. Nearly half of the new                    the ex vivo Zolgensma (onasemnogene                  increasing contributions to overall
drugs were for rare diseases, including rare                   abeparvovec; an adeno-associated viral               medicines approvals means more companies
cancers. They included BeiGene’s Brukinsa                      vector serotype 9 (AAV-9)-based gene                 with steady revenue streams (whether

 Box 6 | Cancer and gene therapy dominates M&A ranks

 Eli Lilly’s $7.2-billion purchase of                          biotechs came from Sanofi’s $2.5-billion            or twice a month; their sales have
 targeted-cancer drug pioneer Loxo                             cash deal in December 2019 for La Jolla,            disappointed. Inclisiran’s mechanism
 Oncology strengthens Lilly’s oncology                         California-based immuno-oncology firm               enables a more convenient twice-yearly
 portfolio and helps fill the $1.4-billion gap                 Synthorx — founded just five years earlier          subcutaneous dosing regimen — an
 left by erectile dysfunction drug Cialis, hit                 from Floyd Romesberg’s lab at the Scripps           advantage that the COVID-19 experience
 with generic competition in 2018. Loxo’s                      Research Institute, with a $6.25-million            may amplify further still.
 Vitrakvi (larotrectinib) was the first drug                   series A. The company’s platform for                    Roche’s $4.3-billion Spark Therapeutics
 to receive FDA approval (in late 2018) for                    introducing unnatural amino acids allows            purchase and Astellas’ $3-billion deal
 use on the basis of genetic mutation, rather                  new pharmacological properties to be                to buy Audentes underscored gene
 than tumor location. Pfizer’s $11.4-billion                   encoded into lymphokines and other                  therapy’s successful ongoing journey from
 purchase of Array BioPharma in June                           proteins. Synthorx raised about $230                experimental to established modality.
 was driven by a similar urge to build                         million in total, including $150 million in         Spark’s Luxturna (voratigene neoparvovec)
 out oncology and catch up with domain                         its 2018 IPO.                                       in 2017 became the first AAV-based gene
 leaders Merck, Roche and the newly                                Not all of 2019’s multi-billion-dollar          therapy to be approved in the United States,
 enlarged Bristol-Myers Squibb. The draw:                      deals were around cancer. Novartis’s                for retinal dystrophy caused by biallelic
 approved BRAF/MEK small-molecule                              $9.7-billion Medicines Company purchase,            RPE65 gene mutation. The company’s
 inhibitor combo encorafenib (Braftovi) and                    announced in November, bet on inclisiran,           pipeline spans blindness, hemophilia and
 binimetinib (Mektovi) for BRAF-mutant                         an RNAi-based treatment licensed from               lysosomal storage disorders. Audentes
 unresectable or metastatic melanoma,                          Alnylam for treating high cholesterol. The          brings to Astellas a fifth growth pillar
 also in tens of further clinical trials, for                  Medicines Company filed for approval in             around genetic medicine, driven by lead
 indications including BRAF-mutant                             the United States and Europe. Novartis is           clinical candidate AT132, which uses an
 metastatic colorectal cancer.                                 hoping the drug, whose phase 3 trials were          AAV-8 vector to deliver a functional copy
     Merck was not standing still in the race                  in atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease           of the myotubularin 1 (MTM1) gene, whose
 to dominate the multiplying categories of                     and familial hypercholesterolemia, will             absence causes the rare neuromuscular
 genetically targeted cancers. In December                     trump Amgen’s Repatha (evolocumab;                  disorder X-linked myotubular myopathy.
 2019, it announced a $2.7-billion deal to                     a human IgG2 mAb targeting human                        Both Spark and Audentes will continue
 buy ArQule with its phase 2 oral Bruton’s                     proprotein convertase subtilisin kexin              to operate as quasi-independent units
 tyrosine kinase (BTK) inhibitor for B-cell                    9 (PSCK9)) and Regeneron’s Praluent                 within their respective parent companies —
 malignancies.                                                 (alirocumab) on the basis of convenience.           a partial nod to Roche’s pioneering
     Evidence of the accelerated                               Those drugs (which target the PSCK9                 Genentech partnership more than two
 value-creation possible for cancer-focused                    protein itself) require injection once              decades ago.

804                                                                             Nature Biotechnology | VOL 38 | July 2020 | 798–811 | www.nature.com/naturebiotechnology
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Table 6 | Top ten licensing deals of 2019
Companies involved (role)                     Description                                                                           Date              Up-front cash
                                                                                                                                    announced         ($ millions)
Galapagos (licensor), Gilead Sciences         Galapagos grants Gilead exclusive, ex-European product license and option             07/14/2019        3,950
(licensee)                                    rights to develop and commercialize current and future programs
Amgen (licensor), BeiGene (licensee)          Amgen partners with BeiGene to expand oncology presence in China                      10/31/2019        2,700
Roche (licensee), Sarepta Therapeutics        Sarepta grants Roche exclusive, ex-US rights to develop and commercialize             12/23/2019        750
(licensor)                                    SRP-9001 to treat DMD
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (licensor),           Alnylam and Regeneron partner in a five-year deal to discover, develop and            04/08/2019 400
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (licensee)          commercialize RNAi therapeutics
Adaptive Biotechnologies (licensor),          Adaptive Biotechnologies partners with Roche’s Genentech unit to develop              01/04/2019        300
Genentech (licensee), Roche (other)           personalized and off-the-shelf T cell therapies to treat cancer
Akcea Therapeutics (licensor), Ionis       Akcea grants Pfizer exclusive, worldwide rights to develop and commercialize             10/07/2019        250
Pharmaceuticals (other), Pfizer (licensee) AKCEA-ANGPTL3-LRx to treat cardiovascular and metabolic diseases
Jazz Pharmaceuticals (licensee),              PharmaMar grants Jazz Pharmaceuticals exclusive US rights to develop and              12/19/2019        200
PharmaMar (licensor)                          commercialize lurbinectedin
Dicerna Pharmaceuticals (licensor),           Dicerna grants Roche worldwide rights to develop and commercialize                    10/31/2019        200
Roche (licensee)                              DCR-HBVS and additional therapies to treat hepatitis B virus infection
Dicerna Pharmaceuticals (licensor),           Dicerna partners with Novo Nordisk to discover and develop therapies for              11/18/2019        175
Novo Nordisk (licensee)                       the treatment of liver-related cardiometabolic diseases using Dicerna’s GalXC
                                              RNAi platform technology
CRISPR Therapeutics (licensor),               CRISPR grants Vertex exclusive, worldwide rights to its current and future            06/06/2019        175
Vertex Pharmaceuticals (licensee)             intellectual property covering CRISPR–Cas9 technology, endonucleases,
                                              single- and double-cut guide RNAs and adeno-associated viral vectors to
                                              develop DMD and DM1 gene-editing therapies
Source: BCIQ BioCentury Online Intelligence

from product sales or royalties) that                  of the group’s pipeline of small molecules,                Alnylam and Regeneron joined forces
lenders feel confident lending to. In early            spanning inflammatory diseases, fibrosis               in April to discover, develop and sell
2020, private equity group Blackstone Life             and osteoarthritis (Table 6). Notably, the             RNAi therapeutics, primarily for eye and
Sciences lent Alnylam $750 million as                  deal fell short of an outright acquisition:            central nervous disorders. Elsewhere,
part of a larger, $2 billion deal designed             Galapagos maintains R&D independence,                  Lexington, Massachusetts-based Dicerna
to bridge the biotech across to financial              but can’t sell out to anyone else (or indeed to        Pharmaceuticals — which, rather than 21-mer
self-sustainability (Box 5).                           Gilead). The tie-up drove a 170% increase in           double-stranded RNAs, uses Dicer-substrate
                                                       Galapagos’s share price over the year, valuing         25/27-mer asymmetric double-stranded
Billion-dollar babies                                  the 20-year old company, which has yet to              RNAs containing stabilizing RNA tetra-loops
Acquisitions and partnerships, as usual,               produce a marketed drug, at $13 billion by             (DsiRNAs) — signed up Roche and Novo
accounted for the lion’s share of public               31 December.                                           Nordisk in the final quarter of 2019.
biopharma financing in 2019. Merger and                    The rest of 2019’s top-ten licensing                   Most biotech companies aren’t in the
acquisition (M&A) totals were dominated by             deals featured the same heady mix                      multi-billion-dollar league. Many will have
the completion in January of Bristol-Myers             of oncology and rare-disease assets,                   started 2020 with much less generous cash
Squibb’s previously announced acquisition of           underpinned by oligonucleotide, gene-                  cushions; more than a few of those will have
Celgene. The year’s M&A cash haul of $90.5             or cell-therapy technologies. Roche in                 seen their clinical trial progress slowed or
billion was below 2018’s $103 billion, but             December paid $750 million for ex-US                   stopped by the pandemic, making lucrative
there were 25% more deals worth over $1                development and commercialization rights               deals or refinancing even less likely. The
billion upfront (Table 5 and Box 6). Many of           to Sarepta’s clinical-stage gene therapy               sector as a whole may be weathering the
them underscored the continued popularity              SRP-9001 (an AAVrh74 vector containing a               COVID-19 storm very well indeed, but
of targeted oncology, immunology and                   codon-optimized human microdystrophin                  at company level, there will be plenty of
rare-disease assets, as well as an increasing          transgene driven by MHCK7, a                           losers, too.                                 ❐
confidence in experimental therapy platform            cardiac-muscle-specific hybrid promoter
technologies using oligonucleotide, gene- or           comprising enhancer and promoter regions               Melanie Senior
cell-therapy modalities.                               of the murine muscle creatine kinase and               London, UK.
    The ghost of Roche’s now decades-old               α-myosin heavy-chain genes) for DMD.
yet pioneering partnership with Genentech              Sarepta’s valuation had already doubled                Published online: 30 June 2020
featured in 2019’s biggest partnership deal.           during 2018 as revenues rolled in from its             https://doi.org/10.1038/s41587-020-0593-1
Gilead’s ten-year tie-up with Galapagos,               first DMD drug, Exondys (eterplirsen); the
announced in July, included a $3.95-billion            company finished 2019 another 25% higher,              Additional information
up-front payment and $1.1 billion in equity            worth $9.6 billion — a whisker outside the             Supplementary information is available for this paper at
investment. It gave Gilead first dibs on all           top 20 biotechs by market capitalization.              https://doi.org/10.1038/s41587-020-0593-1.

Nature Biotechnology | VOL 38 | July 2020 | 798–811 | www.nature.com/naturebiotechnology                                                                           805
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