THE BEST OF TIMES, THE WORST OF TIMES - NORTH AMERICAN ASSET MANAGEMENT - GLOBAL WEALTH & ASSET MANAGEMENT PRACTICE - MCKINSEY
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The Best of Times, The Worst of Times North American Asset Management Global Wealth & Asset Management Practice
Cover image: Untitled, 1963, by Alexander Calder © 2017 Calder Foundation, New York / Artists Rights Society (ARS), New York
Contents Introduction 2 Introduction State of the industry: State of the industry: A continuing phase shift 4 A continuing phase shift Mind the gap: A widening performa Mind the gap: A widening performance spread and an impending shakeout 10 spread and an impending shakeou An inconvenient truth: The great An inconvenient truth: The great redistribution of value 16 redistribution of value A tale of two cities 30 A tale of two cities
2 The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management Introduction Introduction Despite buoyant capital markets and an unexpected regu- latory pause, a pall fell over the North American asset man- agement industry in 2016 as flows turned negative, a growing number of active managers underperformed their benchmarks, margins compressed, and aggregate industry profits retreated. Although 2017 has shown indications of an uptick in industry performance, a mood of pessimism continues to prevail. The inconvenient truth for asset man- agers is that strong secular trends—a moderation in long- term investment returns, an aging demographic shifting from an accumulation to withdrawal phase, the runoff of large pension funds, and pricing pressure driven by passive investments—are now firmly in control and will weigh on the industry for the next 20 years. Welcome to the new ab- normal of asset management.
The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management 3 These secular trends are widening the gap ence of portfolio construction and the un- between top and bottom performers. Today, derlying drivers of product demand. the difference in profitability between the This is not all bad news for asset managers. top- and bottom-quartile managers stands A rising bar for the industry is causing under- at a remarkable 42 percentage points. For performing rivals to fall by the wayside. A the first time since the depths of the finan- shift in investment paradigms is opening cial crisis in 2009, more funds closed or clients’ minds to new innovations that cut merged than were launched last year. Inter- across asset classes. This in turn is leading estingly, and counter to some conventional to a radical shift in how clients invest—for wisdom that predicts an inexorable shift to- example, private equity now increasingly wards scale, our research finds winners and competes directly with public equities and losers across institutions of all sizes. The credit with fixed income. Moreover, technol- greatest predictor of success has not been ogy creates an unprecedented opportunity size, but focused execution to capture to improve both client experience and man- share in the most important pools of value ager efficiency, which stands to create new in the industry. Many in the industry now sources of competitive advantage for firms predict, and we believe correctly, that these that embrace technology in the right ways. factors will drive a wave of consolidation. But consolidation will take a different form In short, asset managers with the right op- than many assume—instead of mega deals erating models and value propositions aimed at creating scale efficiencies, large have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to and medium-sized firms alike will make tar- drastically improve their competitive posi- geted acquisitions to add capabilities, and tion, capturing additional clients, assets, struggling managers of all sizes will shutter and market share. For North American due to their inability to meet the industry’s asset managers, it is truly the best of rising bar. times and the worst of times. These secular trends are not only affecting This report draws on McKinsey’s ongoing re- the industry’s economics, they are con- search into the asset management industry, tributing to a fundamental change to how including insights from McKinsey’s 17th value is distributed both across and within Global Asset Management Survey, which major asset classes. This redistribution has gathers benchmarking data from more than been steadily under way for a decade but 300 asset managers—more than 100 from is near a tipping point as two investing North America, representing $30 trillion (80 trends take root with clients: risk-based percent) of assets under management asset allocation that cuts across asset (AUM)—as well as McKinsey’s annual Global classes and factor investing that identifies Growth Cube data, which provides a granu- additional drivers of value beyond the mar- lar breakdown of historical and forward- ket capitalization-weighted indices of looking AUM, revenue, and net flow data for “standard” passive investing. These innova- 42 regions and countries, 9 client segments, tions are reinventing the very art and sci- 15 asset classes, and 5 product vehicles.
4 The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management State of the i State of the industry: A continuing phase shift A continuing After a rough stretch in 2015, the macroeconomic and mar- ket environment picked up steam in 2016 and into 2017. An extended period of political and regulatory uncertainty came to somewhat of a pause after the US presidential election, corporate profits continued on an upward trajectory, volatility declined, and the equity markets powered ahead, with the S&P 500 delivering 10-percent returns for 2016 and over 16 percent by the end of October 2017. But while global AUM hit a record high of $75.8 trillion by the end of 2016, the in- dustry’s organic growth decelerated to 1.5 percent (from a postcrisis high of 3.6 percent in 2015). This deceleration was most pronounced in North America, the only major region where flows turned slightly negative (-0.4 percent), with out- flows of $161 billion despite rising markets (Exhibit 1). The mood among professional ranks was distinctly gloomy.
The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management 5 n This was a big change from the first 2016 was the first time in 20 years that decade of the century, particularly the re- industry revenues and markets were out covery from the global financial crisis, of sync; ominously, profit margins de- when the North American asset manage- clined for the second consecutive year ment industry enjoyed a rosy period of even as markets powered ahead, char- AUM growth driven by rising markets and acterized by a level of volatility that organic inflows. It was a rising tide that caused investors to stay on the sidelines lifted all boats. (Exhibit 2, page 6). Over the past 18 months, a shift has oc- Several familiar themes drove these re- curred, ushering in a “new abnormal” for sults. Demographic shifts definitely played the industry where neither growth nor a role, as millions of baby boomers went profitability can be taken for granted. from accumulating savings for retirement North America remains the world’s to repositioning their portfolios for retire- largest asset management market by far, ment spending. Institutional market out- accounting for about half of total AUM, flows continued gradually, as unfunded but from 2012 to 2016 it accounted for defined benefit liabilities continued to only about 20 percent of flows. And grow (a $63 billion increase by public Exhibit 1 In 2016, North America1 AUM, 2007-16 year-end $ trillion Market performance Net flows North America 37.8 experienced 0.5 2.3 0.3 net outflows for -0.2 -0.2 0.4 2.0 the first time since 2011 0 3.7 -0.2 2.2 26.9 0 2.4 0.2 -4.9 3.2 -0.6 0 Year-end 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Year-end 2007 AUM 2016 AUM Net flows as percentage of 0.0 -0.1 -2.5 -0.8 0.1 1.2 0.9 1.5 -0.5 beginning-of-year AUM 1 United States and Canada Source: McKinsey Performance Lens Global Growth Cube
6 The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management Exhibit 2 Profit margins in Net revenues/AUM Basis points North American asset 39 38 35 36 37 38 39 38 37 37 management Operating profit declined for the Percent of revenues second year 31 31 33 30 32 33 31 30 28 29 28 running 27 25 26 22 27 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Operating costs/AUM Basis points 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 27 27 28 27 26 26 26 25 26 26 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: McKinsey Performance Lens Global Asset Management Survey Exhibit 3 The pullback North America net flow growth and revenue margin by asset class1 from active was Passive Active Alternatives Bubble size = 2016 AUM equities focused 150 Public market 2016 revenue margin (basis points) 145 Active alternatives 60 55 specialty equity Active specialty 50 Multi-asset fixed income 45 40 35 Active 30 core Active core equity fixed income 25 Passive Passive 20 equity fixed 15 Passive Passive income 10 Money other multi-asset 5 market 0 -13 -12 -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 2016 net flows (percent) 1 Active core equity includes US large cap and yield/income equity; active core fixed income includes core, core plus, and municipal bonds; active specialty equity includes foreign, global, EM and US small/mid-cap; active specialty fixed income includes global, EM, high yield, TIPS, and unconstrained Source: 2016 McKinsey Performance Lens Global Asset Management Survey and Global Growth Cube
The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management 7 Exhibit 4 Pricing pressure Percentage change in revenue margin, US asset managers, 2010-16 continued, 2010-13 but was concentrated -1 -5 -6 -10 in passive -11 -14 -12 -21 2013-16 15 3 1 0 -5 -6 -14 -27 Overall Passive Passive Core Specialty Core fixed Specialty Multi-asset equity fixed equity equity income fixed income income Source: Strategic Insight Simfund MF plans in 2016) and more plans were siderable; over the past decade, passive frozen and sponsors (particularly corpo- equities have taken in $1.4 trillion of flows rate ones) considered derisking measures, while active equities shed $1.1 trillion. and in some cases wholesale pension risk Although pricing pressure continued in transfer arrangements. Political and 2016, it was slightly less intense than in macroeconomic uncertainty caused in- recent years (Exhibit 4). From 2013 to vestors to stay on the sidelines. 2016, revenue margins for mutual funds dropped a weighted average of 5 percent Ongoing shifts in product and compared to a decline of 11 percent be- pricing tween 2010 and 2013. This slight moder- In 2016, the continued shift towards pas- ation in pressure was caused by the sive investing was broad based, and concentration of pricing cuts in already reached a new high-water mark, particu- low-priced passive categories as a num- larly in equities (Exhibit 3). Specialty fixed ber of major providers made aggressive income, multi-asset, and private markets moves to gain share. Also mitigating pric- were the only active categories that ing pressure was a shift in favor of some gained share in 2016. The cumulative im- higher-margin products (e.g., towards in- pact of the product shifts has been con- ternational equities in the core equity cat-
8 The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management Exhibit 5 Costs continued Estimated total North American industry costs by function, traditional asset management industry only (excludes alternatives AUM) CAGR to grow, with $ billion 2007-16 Percent the highest 83 3 80 percentage 76 71 16 17 6 increases in 67 14 15 100 = 62 distribution, Sales and 10 14 marketing O&T, and legal/ 30 30 30 2 Investment 29 compliance/risk management 26 27 Operations and technology 15 17 6 13 14 Legal, compliance 9 1 12 3 3 3 2 3 8 and risk Management, 14 16 16 1 15 12 13 administration and other 2007 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Cost/AUM 26 27 26 25 26 26 Basis points Source: McKinsey Performance Lens Global Growth Cube; McKinsey Performance Lens Global Benchmarking Survey egory). Specialty fixed income, for exam- that had not found traction with clients. ple, was the biggest winner, boosting The result was a proliferation of “orphan revenue margins by a healthy 15 percent funds” that created both operational from 2013 to 2016. complexity and a crowded field of funds chasing the same flows. Last year Product proliferation: Some early marked a turning point. For the first time signs of a turning tide since 2009, asset managers focused on rationalizing their product portfolios, re- Also notable in 2016 was the reversal of sulting in 166 more funds being closed or the product proliferation that took root merged than opened. during the industry’s postcrisis recovery. As we pointed out in our previous report,1 But we are in the early stages of this cull. the industry embarked on a wave of In the US market alone, there are more product growth over the past five years in than 11,000 funds—roughly 50 percent response to client demands for new more than all the stock market listings for types of exposures, particularly multi- individual securities. In an age when retail asset strategies, smart beta, and income intermediaries and institutional clients solutions. Where the industry has been alike are gravitating towards “fewer but 1 Thriving in the New Abnormal, McKinsey & Company, 2016. less responsive is in culling smaller funds more strategic relationships” and product
The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management 9 platforms are curated with more preci- flowing. Operations and technology grew sion, we expect this rationalization of at a similar 6-percent rate as managers products to continue. It may, in fact, ac- rushed to add new systems and celerate as industry pressures drive man- processes to deal with an increasingly agers to repackage their offerings into complex world of products (e.g., multi- more efficient (and in some cases less asset strategies) and distribution (e.g., profitable) vehicles such as separately greater focus on CRM and digital market- managed accounts (SMAs), institutional ing). Finally, legal and compliance spend- share classes, and clean shares that ing ratcheted up at the fastest rate (about place less of a tax on performance. 8 percent per year) as asset managers dealt with the complexities of expanded Costs remain stubbornly high product portfolios and diverse regulatory challenges, ranging from new fiduciary At the same time, costs have continued to standards from the US Department of increase at a steady pace (Exhibit 5). De- Labor and new MiFID 2 rules that demand spite the much-vaunted notion of leverage transparency around research costs. within the industry’s operating model (put simply, a manager should be able to man- The industry snapshot at the end of 2016 age double the volume of assets without was one of positive economic perform- getting anywhere close to doubling costs), ance (about 30-percent operating mar- the average cost of managing a dollar of gins) but with mounting challenges as a assets has remained remarkably constant shift to passive, broader pricing pressures, at about 26 basis points despite a $10.9 and low levels of organic growth com- trillion addition of AUM to the industry bined with stubbornly high operating over the past ten years. costs to weigh down the industry’s prof- itability. The second consecutive year of Since 2007, the North American industry’s deteriorating operating margins even in cost base has increased by $21 billion. the face of market growth (from 33 per- Growth has been concentrated in three cent in 2014 to 30 percent in 2016) was areas. Sales and marketing grew at an an- perhaps the most powerful sign that the nual rate of 6 percent driven in a large part North American industry has reached a by a small-scale “arms race” in distribu- turning point. The all-too-familiar secular tion over the past five years as managers trends that we have discussed at length expanded their sales forces to capture are coming to a head in a way that makes flows in a market that was growing and business as usual a losing approach.
10 The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management Mind the gap Mind the gap: A widening performance spread and an widening perf impending shakeout The dominant narrative for the asset management industry has been that we are entering the worst of times: low re- turns, lower flows, pricing pressure, performance chal- lenges, a massive shift to passive, stubbornly increasing costs, and margin compression. A look at the aggregate performance of the North American asset management in- dustry confirms this downbeat view. However, while industry averages can provide a sense of broad direction, they can also mislead. In an intensely com- petitive talent-driven industry such as asset management, few firms are actually “average.” By digging deeper, be- neath the headline numbers, we can explore asset man- agement dynamics at the level of individual managers.
The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management 11 What the numbers really say Even in the severely challenged active p: Contrary to the conventional wisdom that equities space, top-performing managers all is doom and gloom across the indus- are finding ways to thrive. try, a deeper analysis identifies a massive What makes averages even more mis- spread in performance across the indus- leading in this environment is that the try and a group of asset managers that is performance gap between winners and doing exceptionally well (Exhibit 6). Ac- losers is widening (Exhibit 7). Our propri- cording to McKinsey’s proprietary bench- etary benchmarking data shows that the marking data of 100 managers in North f gap has been creeping upwards for sev- America (covering 80 percent of AUM), in eral years but is now accelerating as 2016, the top quartile of managers grew some asset managers adapt more nimbly revenue at 5 percent, above the -2-per- to the new environment than others. cent average of the industry and enjoyed Today the difference in operating margins highly attractive operating margins at or between the top- and bottom-quartile above their historical highs. managers stands at a remarkable 42 per- centage points (51 percent versus 9 per- cent), compared to three years ago (51 percent versus 15 percent). The increasing gap between the top The increasing gap between the top and and bottom of the industry suggests bottom of the industry—set against the that a shakeout is all but inevitable. challenging secular trends laid out in the last section—suggests that a shakeout is The question is how and at what all but inevitable. The question is how pace this reshuffling of league tables and at what pace this reshuffling of in- dustry league tables will take place. will take place. Size is not destiny In other words, for some managers, it is What exactly will the contours of the actually the best of times. Clients are shakeout look like? This is another area hungry for yield and open to innovation, where we depart from the conventional shifts in asset allocation are setting an wisdom. There is an argument taking root unprecedented amount of money into in the industry that the current environ- motion, lower-performing players are ment is making it harder and harder to being eliminated, technology is creating succeed as a smaller manager, and that new sources of competitive advantage, we are moving to an era when the giants and trillions of dollars of unmanaged as- will take all. A related argument states sets are up for grabs. In short, there is a that being medium sized is particularly massive opportunity to gain market share. perilous, the assumption being that many
12 The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management Exhibit 6 Top performers in North America Operating margin, 2016 Percent sustained 65 Survey average = -2% meaningful 60 55 revenue growth 50 45 at highly 40 35 Survey attractive 30 average 25 = 30% operating 20 10 margins 5 0 -15 -30 -25 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 30 65 2016 revenue growth Percent Source: McKinsey Performance Lens Global Asset Management Survey Exhibit 7 Growth Operating margin Percent Long-term net flows/ beginning-of-year AUM Revenue growth Percent headwinds Percent 2016 affected the entire 52 North American 30 industry, but the 9 4 5 -9 bottom quartile 0 -11 -2 was hit Top Average Bottom Top Average Bottom Top Average Bottom quartile quartile quartile quartile quartile quartile particularly hard 2015 48 31 13 11 13 0 -9 2 -10 Top Average Bottom Top Average Bottom Top Average Bottom quartile quartile quartile quartile quartile quartile Source: McKinsey Performance Lens Global Benchmarking Survey
The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management 13 such firms are “stuck in the middle”—that while the “average” asset managers with is, they lack the scale to operate effi- $50 million to $150 million in AUM had the ciently and are too broad to claim special- lowest operating margins at 26 percent, ized status. And, once again, when you the top quartile of managers in that group look at the averages, this outlook seems had margins of 39 percent, beating out to have some merit. Medium-sized firms most other managers of all sizes. Similarly, with $50 to $300 billion AUM suffered, on while the “average” small manager ap- average, a 5-percent margin gap relative peared to operate at a structural disadvan- to large firms, and a 3-percent gap rela- tage to the biggest in the industry, the tive to smaller focused boutiques. top-quartile performers in this size band were the best performers across the board. But our granular analysis shows clearly that size is not destiny (Exhibit 8). There If firm size was not a reliable predictor of were vast differences in performance success, which variables better forecast within each size category, at a scale that success? Our analysis of the over 2,000 dwarfed the differences across size cate- metrics that we track on individual man- gories. There were high-performing agers uncovered multiple routes to suc- medium-sized firms, as well as large and cess. But what each leading firm had in small firms that struggled. For example, common, was above-average “product Exhibit 8 Size does not Profit margin by firm size, AUM, 2016 Percent dictate success On average, scale seems to offer a 5-point Averages lie Top quartile in North margin advantage Average Bottom American asset quartile management 43 44 38 39 38 38 36 36 33 30 30 31 28 28 28 26 26 24 24 8 $1 $1 billion billion- billion- billion- trillion billion billion- billion- billion- trillion $150 $300 $1 trillion $150 $300 $1 billion billion billion billion trillion Firm size, AUM Firm size, AUM Source: McKinsey Performance Lens Global Benchmarking Survey
14 The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management scale”—that is, the degree to which the dominance. There was no shame in rid- individual firm scaled one or more major ing the coattails of emerging industry asset classes/strategy areas and then ex- trends; in fact, it was essential to outper- ecuted with focus. Specifically, profitabil- formance in many cases. ity leaders drove close to 40 percent of Meanwhile, the firms that struggled were their funds to a scale above $1 billion, those that resisted these trends, or took compared to an average of 17 percent only token steps to build new capabilities. for the rest of the industry. Highly suc- In many cases, they tried to play in multi- cessful firms built the conviction to mobi- ple areas to hedge their bets, but lacked lize enterprisewide resources towards a the conviction to invest in these busi- focused set of well-defined growth priori- nesses adequately or cull underperform- ties. This resource allocation was not just ing areas that diverted management a question of dollars and headcount, but attention and dragged on profitability. also included mindshare across every functional area of the firm. This dynamic was a predictable marker of success Not the traditional M&A wave whether a firm was a focused, single- Our third conclusion on the likely trajec- asset-class specialist or a broad-based tory of the North American asset man- multiproduct platform. agement industry is that consolidation will happen, but through a nontraditional set of channels. Conventional wisdom assumes that a new logic of scale is Some opportunistic mega deals will emerging across the board, that industry occur as larger financial institutions giants will take all, and that margin pres- sures will drive a search of economies of reshape their business portfolios. But scale. Some go so far as to predict that the bulk of consolidation will result from the pursuit of pure scale will lead to mas- sive consolidation through transformative more targeted acquisitions and lift-outs mega deals. of individual teams. We believe this logic of scale applies in some but not all parts of the industry; it is arguably well at work in the world of Asset managers in the top right of the passive, but less clear in active and al- performance matrix—that is, those that ternatives. To be sure, some mega deals lead in terms of both margin and will occur opportunistically as larger fi- growth—got there not just through fo- nancial institutions continually reshape cused execution in their areas of existing their business portfolios. But the bulk of strength, but also through meaningful in- consolidation will result from more tar- vestments in new industry growth trends geted acquisitions and lift-outs of indi- that sometimes threatened their areas of vidual teams, undertaken to turbocharge
The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management 15 the buildup of specialized capabilities in that two underperforming managers areas of industry growth (e.g., alterna- can merge to become stronger is a tives, multi-asset, ETFs). This process myth based on the misguided pursuit of will be complemented by a second con- scale for scale’s sake. In reality, the solidating force—the shuttering of strug- sum of two negative numbers is a gling managers unable to meet the larger negative number. industry’s rising bar. ■ Transformative M&A is tough. To be sure, the industry will see some large An evolving industry structure acquisitions. But instead of being In summary, we have reached four conclu- driven by scale, these will more likely sions about how the industry structure will be opportunistic purchases made pos- evolve in a world where performance gaps sible when forward-thinking institutions are rising between the best and the rest: realign their own business portfolios. ■ The coming shakeout is real. In a highly The reality is that transformative M&A at this scale is challenging. Few institu- fragmented industry, where the per- tions have the integration skills or the formance bar is rising and performance wherewithal to radically restructure their gap is widening, and where clients are operating model. ■ Capability-driven M&A will dominate. To demanding “fewer but more strategic relationships,” poor performers will fall align with the industry’s growth by the wayside. Many will simply close, trends—to ride those coattails—com- not be acquired. A clearing out of the panies need the right capabilities. bottom tier is virtually assured. ■ M&A is not always (or even usually) the Sometimes these can be built in-house, but many firms will opt to move faster answer. A wave of transformational by purchasing smaller or medium-sized M&A to save those firms that are “stuck firms with specialized capabilities. in the middle” is unlikely. The notion
16 The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management An inconveni An inconvenient truth: The great redistribution of value truth: The gre The shifting of the product mix in North American asset management is well recognized. What is less understood is how this shift is changing the equation between assets and revenues. Also less appreciated are the trends that could accelerate the shift over the next few years. In this chapter, we explore these evolving demand-side drivers and exam- ine how they are redistributing value across and within a number of “hot spots” in the industry.
The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management 17 Where’s the money going? has translated into a 9-percent revenue Much attention has been focused on the share gain. The big losers in this dynamic massive flows into passive. Market share have been the traditional actively man- of passive has indeed grown materially, aged asset categories, which have ceded from 12 percent in 2010 to 18 percent in 9-percent share of the overall industry 2016. Yet, interestingly, passive’s share of value pool (as measured by both assets the industry revenues has remained con- and revenues). stant at 3 percent as its growth has been accompanied by (and arguably driven by) New orthodoxies will accelerate e aggressive price competition (Exhibit 9). change All but the largest players have struggled To date, this transition has occurred in a to convert this significant asset growth gradual and steady manner. However, we into meaningful revenue and profit growth. believe this shift in value pools is about to Meanwhile, multi-asset strategies and al- accelerate, as investors embrace two ternatives have both grown in parallel, trends that have been steadily gaining collectively grabbing an additional 7-per- credence and momentum (Exhibit 10, cent share in AUM since 2010; due to page 18). This philosophical change will their higher margins, this gain in assets alter the investing paradigm. Exhibit 9 Passive’s share North America assets and revenues, 2010-16 Percent of North Total industry assets Total industry revenues Passive American 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Active core Active 12 12 14 15 16 17 revenues has 18 21 20 20 19 18 18 17 specialists Multi-asset remained Alternatives 30 30 29 26 Money market constant 26 26 25 27 31 30 28 32 31 30 28 27 27 28 26 25 24 13 14 10 10 11 12 9 8 9 9 11 12 12 13 34 35 36 36 36 37 38 10 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 10 9 8 8 8 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: 2016 McKinsey Performance Lens Global Asset Management Survey and Global Growth Cube
18 The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management ■ Risk-based portfolio construction. In- ■ Factor investing. Factor investing vestors are increasingly recognizing seeks to go beyond broad market- the limitations of traditional asset al- capitalization-weighted indices like the location strategies, which use rigidly S&P 500 or the Barclays Aggregate defined asset-class buckets and can Bond Index to identify a more granular mask underlying risk exposures. By set of performance drivers, whether it reframing the portfolio construction be macroeconomic growth, currency process in terms of different types of fluctuations, momentum, or something risk exposures (e.g., corporate, inter- else. Factors are the cornerstone of a est rates, inflation) instead of types of passive investment strategy—so- asset classes, these new approaches called “smart beta”—that has been are blurring the boundaries between rapidly gaining traction with investors asset classes, creating competition in recent years by providing a more across previously distinct categories finely calibrated set of portfolio build- (e.g., private equity in the place of ing blocks. some public equities; and the use of Interestingly, factor-based investing multi-asset strategies instead of fixed challenges both active management income for some income generation). (because a good portion of “alpha” is Exhibit 10 Risk budgeting Risk factor-based asset allocation Factor investing and factor Defensive Inflation protected Active mandates investing gain Special opportunity Company exposure Tactical asset allocation followers 100 2 Cash Security selection US bonds Market timing 6 Foreign bonds Alpha (currency hedged) 18 Factor tilts/overlays Real estate Value Infrastructure US TIPS Size Alternative 21 risk premia Yield Absolute return Quality volatility Real return Distressed debt Momentum Mezzanine debt Structured credit Market exposure 53 Other opportunities Beta Strategic asset allocation Global credit Cap-weighted indices Global equity Private equity Asset classes become more fungible with explicit Sources of active returns are more easily replicable discussions on cross-asset-class trade-offs with value add over passive indices Source: APFC website; Pensions & Investments; McKinsey’s 2011 Institutional Investor Benchmarking Initiative
The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management 19 attributable to exposure to these fac- Three hot spots where the tors rather security selection) as well redistribution of value will play out as passive management (because with intensity classic passive management ignores The redistribution of value is occurring these factors). and accelerating broadly across the in- Together, these two ideas represent a dustry and asset classes, but we have revolutionary shift in investment ortho- identified three areas where shifts are oc- doxy with real implications on product curring with particular intensity, and demand. As they gain acceptance with a where competitive dynamics and industry broad set of investors, asset classes will structure are likely to undergo important become increasingly fungible; meanwhile changes over the next five years: the bright line between active and pas- Hot Spot 1: Traditional active strate- sive investing will become increasingly gies (particularly equities) blurred as smart beta utilizes both active and passive methods of investing. The To put it bluntly, 2016 was a challenging net result will be an increased level of year for traditional active investing, much competition not just within individual worse than 2015, which itself was no asset classes, but also across them. banner year (Exhibit 11). The pain was Exhibit 11 2016 was a Outperformance of US domestic active equities funds, 2015 versus 2016 2015 2016 Percent of funds outperforming passive challenging year Growth Value Blend for equities 49 37 28 25 Large 30 20 41 54 42 31 25 Medium 20 29 67 50 22 37 Small 15 Source: Morningstar
20 The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management felt across almost every major active eq- Our results pointed to a good news/bad uity strategy. The number of large- new story. growth funds outperforming passives fell First, the good news. Our research iden- from 49 percent in 2015 to 30 percent in tified five enduring sources of value 2016, the number of medium-sized- within active management over the 20- value funds outperforming dropped from year period that undercut the gloomy 54 percent to 20 percent, and the num- prognoses commonly applied to the en- ber of small-value funds outperforming tire active management industry: plummeted from 67 percent to 15 per- cent. Small-cap equity funds somewhat ■ Institutional strategies. More than 70 bucked the trend, with several cate- percent of these strategies outper- gories improving their performance. And formed passive equivalents by up to fixed income were the major outlier, with 100 basis points on a through-cycle 76 percent of intermediate bond funds basis. Several structural factors likely for example outperforming their passive contributed to this outperformance: equivalents, up from 29 percent in 2015. fee efficiency of vehicles and robust governance of institutional mandates. ■ Specialized active. Specialized sub- asset classes (e.g., small cap, inter- Our research identified five enduring national, emerging markets) have sources of value within active generated long-term positive returns management over the 20-year up to 200 basis points over passive. In this case, lower market efficiency period that undercut the gloomy (e.g., imperfect information, illiquidity) prognoses commonly applied to the enabled managers with superior skill to generate sustained returns. entire active management industry. ■ Top-performing managers. Top-tier managers provided sustained added value even in mainstream asset With this continued underperformance classes, delivering more than 100 of traditionally managed active assets basis points over passive on average and clients’ increasingly hardening atti- over the last ten years. ■ High-dispersion markets. Macroenvi- tudes towards certain classes of actively managed assets in mind, we conducted ronments mattered, but success was an in-depth study of value creation in less tied to bull markets or bear mar- active management using 20 years of kets and more to periods of volatility granular North American performance during which the price trajectories of data to better understand the facts on a individual securities varied signifi- through-the-cycle basis and gain a per- cantly. In aggregate, active strategies spective on what the future might hold.
The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management 21 outperformed passive by 100 to 300 investors over the past 20 years through basis points in high-dispersion envi- chronic and consistent underperfor- ronments; this held true across both mance (Exhibit 12). The size of this asset bull and bear market environments. pool is not insignificant. Of the $17.1 tril- ■ Quality manager selection. Individual lion of actively managed equities and managers themselves go through peri- fixed income in 2017, $5 trillion is man- ods of overperformance and underper- aged by funds that have underperformed formance, driven by a range of their benchmarks for four or more con- idiosyncratic factors. Manager selec- secutive years. And another $3.8 trillion tion matters; and our research sug- is managed by funds with such consis- gests that the ability to make the right tently paltry levels of outperformance that choices can create a 1.5-times multi- investors might reasonably ask: “Why plier over and above the performance bother?” of underlying funds. Based on these findings, we expect that Now the bad news. There is some validity the closing and merging of laggards, to the charges leveled by the harshest which picked up pace last year, will con- critics of active management. Portions of tinue. This winnowing will result in a the industry have destroyed value for end smaller, better-performing active industry. Exhibit 12 A Darwinian Total traditionally managed active assets, equities and fixed income only, 2017 $ trillion moment for Retail ~17.1 ~5.0 some active Institutional management ~3.7 segments? ~9.0 ~1.3 ~3.8 ~2.8 ~8.3 ~1.0 ~2.5 ~8.1 ~5.8 Active equities “Chronic Lower value-add “High-quality and fixed income underperformers”1 funds2 core” Highly contestable assets 1 Funds which had
22 The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management Exhibit 13 Leaders in 2016 net flows for US active equity by fund 2016 net flows for US active fixed income by fund $ million (N = 2,621 funds) $ million (N = 2,087 funds) active have been winning 18,000 18,000 15,000 15,000 new flows 12,000 12,000 9,000 9,000 6,000 6,000 3,000 3,000 0 -3,000 0 -6,000 -3,000 -9,000 -6,000 -12,000 -9,000 -15,000 -12,000 -15,000 922 funds (35%) generated ~$139 billion of 1,157 funds (55%) generated ~$258 billion of positive flows, with top 20 generating ~37% of that positive flows, with top 20 generating ~34% of that Source: Simfund Exhibit 14 A value Institutional investor perceptions of alternative asset classes, 2013-16 Percent migration in Hedge funds Private equity Fallen short of expectations alternatives as 11 8 6 5 Met investors shift 16 expectations 35 33 Exceeded to the private expectations markets 66 64 71 75 63 78 57 58 31 30 24 21 13 17 8 9 3 2013 2014 2015 2016 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2013-16
The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management 23 But rumors of the death of active are compasses. And the category’s coher- greatly exaggerated. Indeed, this Darwin- ence is coming under further stress as a ian moment for the active industry cre- wide performance gap emerges between ates tremendous opportunity for the public alternative market (that is, high-performing managers that can de- hedge funds) and private alternative mar- liver, and for those that restore value to kets, which is whetting investors’ ap- their offerings through repricing and more petite for the latter. efficient vehicles. And this “liquidity transformation” in favor A granular look at industry averages for of private markets is a logical response to 2016 indicates that a move to quality, performance. Since the global financial high-performing managers is already tak- crisis in 2008 and 2009, the hedge fund ing place (Exhibit 13). Amidst an overall industry has suffered from structural chal- picture of active outflows, the top active lenges in the form of low rates and seem- funds are actually enjoying great success. ingly unidirectional markets. In every year On the fixed-income side, for example, since 2009, a diversified portfolio of 55 percent of 1,157 funds generated hedge funds has underperformed a stan- about $258 billion of positive flow in dard 65-percent equities/35-percent 2016. The top 20 funds generated 34 fixed-income portfolio—and in a number percent of this total. of years by double-digit percentages. The converse has been true of the private Hot Spot 2: A liquidity transformation markets, with private equity meaningfully within alternatives outperforming the 65/35 portfolio over Over the past several years, we have that same period. written extensively about the rise of alter- Once the darling of the alternative in- native investments, driven by client needs vestment category, the hedge fund in- (e.g., meeting pension liabilities) and a dustry is now facing existential challenging external environment (e.g., questions as it seeks to position itself for low rates, low returns). By and large our a new environment. A number of large expectations have played out correctly, institutional investors have openly ques- with alternatives becoming a $7.5 trillion tioned the role of these strategies in industry, accounting for approximately their portfolios, either cutting back on $2.3 trillion of new money entering the in- capital allocations or in some cases re- dustry over the past five years.2 moving the entire category from their in- But that aggregate growth masks a vestment programs. These factors, meaningful shift within the alternatives along with the closing of several large category (Exhibit 14). “Alternatives” has funds, led to a turning point in 2016. For always been somewhat of a misleading the first time since the financial crisis, name for the breadth of strategies, styles, the hedge fund industry shrank in ab- 2 Inclusive of private markets fundraising. and risk-return profiles that the term en- solute terms, with outflows of $70 billion
24 The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management and an uptick in fund closures (Exhibit of challenges: a tough macroenvironment 15). While aggregate flows have picked (e.g., low rates, regulatory uncertainty, up again in 2017 and returns have buoyant markets, and crowded trades); bounced back, the industry has contin- the rise of factor investing, which—be- ued to face growth headwinds given cause it granularly assesses value and skeptical investors with an ever broader risk factors—has spawned low-cost range of alternatives. Industry leaders hedge fund replication strategies; and a have been repositioning themselves in business model that is difficult to scale this new environment with a range of in- because of an overreliance on a handful novations ranging from significant in- of skilled managers. These constraints vestments in data, analytics, and can frustrate institutions that need to put technology to create new sources of in- massive amounts of capital to work. vestment advantage to paradigm shifts Nevertheless, it is getting harder and in pricing, with moves beyond the tradi- harder to be a small investor in this tional 2/20 structure to 1/30 or even space. Recently, the bulk of flows have 0/20 to better position their propositions gone to the largest firms, and this trend for low alpha environments. has continued through 2017. Thus, we To be fair, the hedge fund industry has believe industry consolidation—through had to contend with a very diverse array acquisitions and closure—will pick up Exhibit 15 2016 was a Net flows into the global hedge fund industry $ billion challenging year 195 for the global 127 hedge fund 71 76 industry 56 64 44 34 -70 -131 -154 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Flows Percent 11.4 13.3 -8.3 -9.3 3.5 3.7 1.7 2.8 2.9 1.5 -2.4 Source: HFR
The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management 25 pace. Survivors will pursue greater insti- scale take-privates of companies; long- tutionalization to better deliver quality in- duration “core” funds that create patient vestment products in a broader set of capital; a greater willingness to play formats. The most successful hedge seamlessly across debt and equity; and funds are already pursuing this strategy, innovations such as special-purpose ac- enabling them to monetize their skills and quisition companies (SPACS), which raise intellectual capital through a broader large pools of capital to pursue single in- range of channels. vestment themes. Meanwhile, the outperformance in the pri- The bottom line is that investors are vate markets is hardly a secret and new growing increasingly comfortable with the money is rushing in. Private equity firms category’s illiquidity as a way to diversify hauled in $626 billion globally in 2016, re- risk exposure and add value. We expect visiting the highs set before the financial that private-market alternatives will con- crisis. And—in contrast to the belea- tinue to attract a larger share of invest- guered hedge fund industry—a number of ments, and managers are likely to drive notable large investors have signaled the towards greater growth and scalability. importance of their private-market pro- We are also likely to see a growing num- grams and significantly upped their allo- ber of firms that position themselves as cations. The surge in private-market multistrategy platforms—effectively be- demand is raising some red flags among coming portals to access different invest- market observers, who worry about future ing alternatives and partners. returns and if a bubble is forming. They Hot Spot 3: The third act for ETFs point to high valuations, intense competi- tion from strategic investors, and high lev- ETFs have continued their explosive els of undeployed capital. growth, far exceeding any other major asset class/vehicle, even overtaking their The world of private-market investing is passive equivalents in mutual funds and indeed highly cyclical. But the surge in the active strategies that they began dis- demand should be viewed in the context placing over twenty years ago (Exhibit 16, of the industry’s significantly increased page 26). There are now around 2,000 “surface area.” Ten years ago, private ETF products with increasingly precise markets referred almost exclusively to exposures and themes. developed markets’ private equity, but the category is now much more geo- The astounding growth—ETFs now control graphically diverse, encompassing all about 7 percent of all managed investment things illiquid, such as credit, real estate, products—has been driven by intense re- and infrastructure. Also fueling growth in tail demand for these low-cost, flexible in- private markets are a wave of innovations vestment instruments with intraday liquidity, among industry leaders, including: fund- particularly from their uptake in home of- less-sponsor models that enable large- fice portfolios, the rise of the rep-as-port-
26 The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management Exhibit 16 ETFs have US market share of managed investment products1 CAGR almost Percent 32% 1993- 2000- 2009- overtaken their 30% 2000 09 16 28% passive mutual 26% 24% fund equivalents 22% ETFs 37 31 11 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% Passive 27 7 11 8% mutual 6% funds 4% 2% 0% 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 April 2017 1 Includes long-term open-end funds, money market funds, and ETFs Source: Strategic Insight Exhibit 17 ETFs are Individual stocks, long-term mutual funds, and ETFs – US household financial asset mix Share year-end, 2007-16 increasing the Percent 2007 2016 Change size of the asset 100% ETFs 4 10 +6 % pts management 90% 80% Long-term 29 27 -2 % pts market mutual 70% funds 60% 50% 40% Corporate 67 63 -4 % pts 30% equity 20% 10% 0% 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2016 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Source: Strategic Insight; Federal Reserve Flow of Funds; McKinsey Performance Lens
The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management 27 folio-manager business model, and the is sometimes used to characterize the in- fast-growing “robo-advice” platforms. terplay between active and passive. We expect, for example, that fixed-income The growth of ETFs is often conflated ETFs will grow rapidly, filling an acute liq- with the inroads that low-cost passive in- uidity and trading need caused by the vesting has been making over active pullback of traditional market makers, management. That’s part of the story, but which are trimming their bond inventories this angle obscures the true potential of and cutting back on activity given regula- ETFs. ETFs are not just grabbing share tory and capital challenges. from active mutual funds, they are actu- ally growing the total pie by winning new The ETF market has also been evolving in flows into asset management as a whole terms of what it delivers to investors. To (Exhibit 17). Between 2007 and 2017, a be sure, most ETF demand continues to full two-thirds of ETF growth (as a share be in “bulk beta,” the cheapest, most of household financial assets) came from basic portfolio building blocks that track attracting assets once held as individual mainstream market-capitalization- securities. In other words, ETFs are an weighted indices (Exhibit 18). The pricing investment “technology” that is growing of these products is so low that only the the total asset management market and largest, most efficient managers have breaking free of the zero-sum game that been able to win, and often with the help Exhibit 18 Bulk beta Breakdown of US ETF AUM by strategy, 2016 CAGR Percent 2012-16 remains the Percent AUM Revenue mainstay of the Active 100% = $2.6 trillion 1 $6 billion 3 41 44 ETF industry Smart beta 11 20 30 27 Specialized 18 26 7 -1 Bulk beta 70 52 17 13 AUM Revenue Source: Simfund
28 The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management Exhibit 19 New ETF Hedge funds RIAs Mutual funds Model portfolios use cases Pension funds Portfolio Market Robo-advisors management exposure are emerging Hedging Liquidity management Trading desks Corporate treasuries Institutional investors Insurance companies Price Mutual funds discovery Market makers Asset managers Source: McKinsey analysis of business models that deliver a set of North American market. As more ETF ancillary revenue-generating services managers move to leverage factor invest- such as securities lending and product ing, competition will not just be about wrap fees. But, concurrently, the industry price, but also about innovation and exe- has been innovating, and investors are cution. Indeed, the recent entry of several proving receptive to new products that traditionally active managers into the come at slightly higher cost. Two cate- smart beta ETF space is a signal of the gories in particular, active ETFs and nature of competition to come. smart beta, have been growing faster Given the robust demand across almost than bulk beta (though off a low base). every part of the ETF market, our overall Active ETFs and smart beta experienced outlook for growth is strong. We expect compound annual AUM growth of 41 per- the industry to continue its double-digit cent and 30 percent respectively from growth over the next several years, pos- 2012 to 2016. Bulk beta, in contrast, sibly becoming a $6 trillion market by grew at 17 percent over the same period. 2021 (from $2.9 trillion in 2016). We expect that smart beta in particular Attaining this milestone will depend as will continue to be the focus of competi- much on innovation as it will on head-to- tion over the next few years as factor in- head market share gains against other in- vesting takes root in a greater way in the
The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management 29 Exhibit 20 The industry Systematizing the Distribution scale and investment edge institutionalization game board is dynamic Hedge Private funds markets Margin pressure Fixed income and Focus on solutions multi-asset Active Passive equities and ETFs Survival of Cost discipline the fittest and innovation Growth momentum Source: McKinsey analysis vestment vehicles. Leading ETF providers price pressures) with constant innovation need to broaden the use cases of their (given the importance of first-mover ad- products to grow the overall size of the vantage in new product areas as well as market (Exhibit 19). Already, institutions the ever-present threat of “fast followers”). are putting ETFs to use for a wider range of needs: for example, to equitize cash New competitive dynamics holdings (ironically, sometimes within ac- The three major shifts outlined above il- tively managed funds), to hedge expo- lustrate how the redistribution of value is sures in difficult-to-access markets, for occurring broadly across the industry price discovery in thinly traded asset and asset classes, creating fundamen- classes (e.g., corporate bonds), and even tally different pools of value and new in corporate cash management. competitive dynamics. The result is a Firms need to consider how to compete highly variegated industry “game board,” in this market. The scale economics of where margin and growth dynamics are ETFs differ from more traditional funds, exerting different pressures on different particularly in bulk beta, which is consoli- segments of the industry (Exhibit 20). dating and may come down to three to This creates a highly varied set of imper- four firms. Success will depend on com- atives. There is no one-size-fits-all pre- bining operational efficiency (to withstand scription for success.
30 The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management A tale of two cities A tale of two The observation that the North American asset manage- ment industry is at a pivotal moment is hardly novel. To say that the industry faces an unprecedented set of challenges is both so true and so accepted it has the ring of a cliché. In this report, we take this received wisdom as a starting point and cast an eye towards outcomes. And we argue that these outcomes for the industry come in the shape of a barbell. It is neither the best of times, nor the worst of times. It is both.
The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management 31 Asset managers need to seize on the re- sticking one’s head in the sand), but it is alities of this new environment, one of the also incomplete. When firms focus too most fundamental of which is that the heavily on the downside, they risk miss- majority of trends discussed here are ing some of the biggest, most exciting deeply secular rather than cyclical. They opportunities in the industry today. are not temporary fads that firms can ride Disruption is setting an unprecedented out or adjust to with incremental changes. amount of money into motion, as clients At the same time, asset managers need shift assets in the hunt for yield. Industry to approach the futurewith the dual mind- consolidation will put large swathes of set of both dealing decisively with new market share in play. New technologies challenges but also seizing on the oppor- are opening avenues to innovation across tunities that this new environment affords. the asset management value chain and could help forward-thinking firms capture some of the trillions in unmanaged assets. Two very different narratives are strug- When firms focus too heavily on gling for ascendance in today’s asset the downside, they risk missing management industry. In the dominant some of the biggest, most exciting (and pessimistic) narrative, asset man- agement is moving inexorably towards opportunities in the industry today. becoming a commodity industry, and asset managers are transitioning towards becoming cost managers. In the alterna- Embracing both the best and the tive narrative, asset managers can find worst of times new relevance by delivering solutions, and have a unique opportunity to position We believe the industry has been too themselves as client-backed innovators. one-sided in its embrace of the “the Deciding how to embrace and balance worst of times” narrative. To be sure, these competing narratives is quite liter- there is real work to be done in restruc- ally a matter of choosing a firm’s destiny. turing business models and product port- folios to improve resilience to industry pressures. But far too many managers Five priorities have simply positioned themselves in a In an industry undergoing significant defensive crouch, preparing for an ex- change, there are multiple paths to suc- tended fight to hold onto their narrow cess. Nonetheless, we believe that asset area of expertise and tightening their managers who are successful in reposi- belts for a leaner future. tioning their businesses for continued growth and profitability will embrace the In many cases, this approach is certainly following five priorities: warranted (indeed it is far better than
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