The Australian & New Zealand animal fat producers' ecosystem must evolve 23 - 26 July 2019 - Greenea
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
A BIOFUEL CONSULTING AND BROKERAGE COMPANY
Copyright © 2019 Greenea. All rights reserved.
The Australian & New Zealand animal fat producers’ ecosystem
must evolve
23 - 26 July 2019
Hydrogenated Vegetable Oil (HVO) is a global industry for local markets
P66 MARATHON ST1 PREEMRAFF UPM
Partner REG Status Under construction Status Under construction Status Under construction Status In operation
Capacity Unknown Capacity 500,000 MT Planned 2022 200,000 MT Capacity 1,156,000 MT Capacity 100 000 MT
Location Ferndale Refinery New Project 300 000 MT
Partner Ryze Renewables SKY NRG SCA & ST1 Planned 2023/2025
Location Reno & Las Vegas
Status New project Status Under construction
Capacity 500,000 MT
Planned 2022 100,000 MT Planned 2021 100,000 MT
ECO Biochemical
Copyright © 2019 Greenea. All rights reserved.
AltAir Fuels GUNVOR
Status In operation
Status (2022) Project Capacity 120,000 MT
Status In operation
Capacity 400,000 MT
Capacity 130,000 MT
HUNANYU
DIAMOND GREEN DIESEL Status In operation
Capacity 120,000 MT
Status In operation
Capacity 740,000 MT
Expansion 1,180,000 MT YANGZOU JIANYUAN
Status In operations
WORLD ENERGY Capacity 100,000 MT
Status Project
NESTE
New project 900,000 MT
Location The Netherlands
Capacity 1,150,000 MT
REG Extension2022 250,000 MT
Status In operation Location Finland
Capacity 250,000 MT
TOTAL
Capacity 400,000 MT
New project 138,000 MT Status In operation Location Singapore
Capacity 500,000 MT Capacity 1,150,000 MT
EMERALD BIOFUELS Extension2022 1,550,000 MT
Status Under construction ENI
Capacity 280,000 MT Location Italy, Venice PETRIXO
Capacity 350,000 MT Status Project
Next Energy Group Expansion2021 200,000 MT Location UAE
Status Under construction ECB GROUP Location Italy, Gela Capacity 400,000 MT
Capacity 700,000 M
Capacity 1,700,000 MT Status Project
Capacity 700,000 MT MT = Metric Ton
Source: Greenea Analysis
The acronym ”HVO” comes from ”Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil” or ”Hydrogenated Vegetable Oil”. It is also commonly named "Renewable diesel" in the US. 2
… and alongside, Hydrogenated Vegetable Oil worldwide capacity is expected to
triple globally
Hydrogenated Vegetable Oil (HVO) worldwide installed capacity is expected to reach at least 13 million tons
and up to 20 million tons in 2025
20 Pure Renewable diesel (HVO)
projected worldwide capacity (million tons)
Copyright © 2019 Greenea. All rights reserved.
x3
16
ASIA 18%
12
EU 37%
8
x4
4
USA 43%
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Source: Greenea Analysis
Note: This graph only includes pure-HVO factories projects planned before 2019 Sanitized version
3
There is an ocean of opportunities for HVO in Europe and in the US…
The blend wall limit is the major driver of
California, a market with unlimited ambitions…
Hydrogenated Vegetable Oil (HVO) demand
Gov. Gavin Newsom’s stated goal
EU diesel demand US diesel demand of eliminating petroleum diesel
Copyright © 2019 Greenea. All rights reserved.
(million tons) Low scenario, taking into (million tons) emissions in California by 2030 is
200 account only road transport 15 achievable
183
12
174 11 10
163 10
150
8
5 6
9 BLEND WALL
5 7 2
14 13 12 2 2 2
0 0
2020 2025 2030 2020 2025 2030
Diesel demand HVO demand Biodiesel demand Diesel demand HVO demand Biodiesel demand
Source: Greenea Analysis, USDA, California Advanced Biofuels Alliance
Note : The “blend wall" is the limit of the total amount of biofuels that can be blended into diesel or gasoline fixed by vehicle industry
4
and fuel distribution infrastructures
Today, the biodiesel & HVO production mainly relies on vegetable oils…
Global feedstock breakdown by type (2019)
Vegetable oils 203,5 millions MT
Sanitized version
Copyright © 2019 Greenea. All rights reserved.
EU restricts the use of
veg-oils and each Palm oil will no longer be used in
Member State can even France, Norway, Sweden from 2020
be more restrictive…. and progressively banned in the
entire EU between 2023 to 2030
Soybean is not very well
seen either and there are a
lot of discussions about the
sustainability and ILUC
Source: Greenea Analysis
Note: Indirect changes in the use of land (ILUC) 5
… but in the long-term, biofuels stakeholders dream that veg-oils are not going to be
used anymore, the industry will rely on very complex resources
Global biodiesel feedstock 2G1 and 3G2 resource breakdown by type (2019)
Contrary to the widespread Sanitized version
A scattered market that
misconception, most of the animal
makes the overall
fats are not considered waste. Only
collection of the UCO
500 000 tons is approved today Part
resource unrealistic.
Copyright © 2019 Greenea. All rights reserved.
B Annex 9 (waste tallow), so 3% of
the global animal fats, but still a
solution to replace palm oil.
China is a leading country in UCO supply.
It is also a major risk if one day the Govt.
decides to stop the exportation and
develop the production of biodiesel &
HVO for its local market
Caution on the market size of waste-based feedstocks, certainly not the only solution to
meet the future demand, especially as there already exists a market for those feedstocks.
Source: Greenea Analysis
Note: 1. 2G: second generation of biofuels feedstock are waste-based 3G: third generation of biofuels feedstock are advanced feedstock.
6
TCO Technical Corn Oil; POME Palm Oil Mill Effluent, SBEO Spent Bleaching Earth Oil
While tallow prices have remained constant over the past 2 years, Neste’s sales
margin has doubled in only 3 years
Neste margin doubled in only 3
years
1.000 USD
x2
Copyright © 2019 Greenea. All rights reserved.
800
704 692
613
600
Are you sure you are selling at
400 337 the right price ?
Tallow price constant in
200
average…
0
2016 2017 2018 Q1 2019
Neste Sales Margin
Tallow price FOB Australia USD per ton
There is no transparency regarding HVO prices
Source: Greenea Analysis
Note: Neste Sales Margin and Tallow FOB Australia USD per ton price are averaged on a yearly basis based on quarterly data 7
A 3-step approach to gain influence and negotiation power on the animal fat market
Negotiation power 3 Expansion
2 Collaboration
Copyright © 2019 Greenea. All rights reserved.
1 Knowledge sharing
Establish unique transport
Acquire other regional coops
channel and storage facility Integrate animal fat top players in southeast Asia
Create a unique FOB / CIF sheet term
Create a national-scale coops
Understand prices mechanism Capture mid-stream
Create weekly / monthly market reports organization Example: Getting storage facilities close to major
analyzing HVO drivers The Organization of Tallow Exporting Countries HVO trading hubs (Singapore, California…)
(OTEC)
Trade together Go downstream: Invest in
Set up a trading desk for Australian & New biofuels facilities
Zealand animal fat Invest / Co-Invest in an HVO Factory
Influence
Source: Greenea Analysis 8
In this context, Greenea is helping the industry to
navigate in the biofuels market
12
years of
experience
Copyright © 2019 Greenea. All rights reserved.
‘’We help our clients make significant investment decisions in the Active in
EU, by bringing biofuels expertise, market visibility and latest
updates, crucial in the decision making process and allowing them
50
countries
to understand biofuels maket mechanisms.’’
35+
consulting
projects
Since 2007, pioneer on the market of
waste-based feedstock and biodiesel
9
Greenea Consulting helps global and regional oil & gas players define their
biofuel strategy
Feedstock Competition Analysis
Legislation EU / Global
procurement strategy on the biofuel sector
Copyright © 2019 Greenea. All rights reserved.
Biodiesel demand Transport and Logistics
10Greenea Brokerage gets you the best deals on waste-based feedstock and biofuels
Greenea publishes on a daily basis the latest Greenea team cumulates +20 years of experience in
biodiesel-market prices and drivers updates biofuels and brokerage
Fabien Hillairet
Copyright © 2019 Greenea. All rights reserved.
Managing Director of GREENEA
GREENEA PRICE MONITOR - EUROPE
Biofuels & Feedstock Broker
January 8, 2019
UNIT SPOT Daily var (%) Weekly var(%)
EXPORT TO PDF
Gasoil (0) USD per ton 550 1,9% 7,1%
EUR / USD - 1,145 0,5% 0,0%
• 10+ years of experience in biofuels and waste based feedstock
MARKET DRIVERS
UNIT JAN FEB MAR
USD per ton 825 830 830 USD per ton FAME 0°C M+1 RME M+1 CFPP Value M+1
FAME 0°C (1) Daily var -10 3 3
Daily var (%) -1,2% 0,4% 0,4% 1600 66
1500 60
1400 54
USD per ton 1007 946 915 48
brokerage & consulting (Ex-biofuels expert at BCG)
1300 42
RME (2) Daily var -3 2 0 1200 36
Daily var (%) -0,3% 0,2% 0,0% 1100 30
1000 24
18
USD per °C 15,2 9,7 7,1 900 12
800 6
CFPP VALUE (3) Daily var 0,6 -0,1 -0,3 700 0
Daily var (%) 3,8% -0,9% -3,5%
UCOME MARKET EUR per ton
UCOME SUPPLIER M+1 UCOME THEORETICAL M+1
UNIT JAN FEB MAR
910
UCOME OVER FAME (4) USD per ton 185 185 185 890
Olivier Madiot
870
USD per ton 1010 1015 1015 850
UCOME CFPP 0°C FLAT Weekly var 55 59 51 830
PRICE THEORETICAL (5) Weekly var (%) 5,4% 5,8% 5,0% 810
790
EUR per ton 882 887 887
770
- 1,7 1,7 1,7
DC FACTOR OF UCOME
Weekly var 0,0 0,0 0,0
THEORETICAL (6)
Weekly var (%) 8,0% 0,3% 1,8%
UCOME +2°C PRODUCER
(7)
DC FACTOR OF UCOME
EUR per ton
Weekly var
Weekly var (%)
USD per ton
-
850
25
2,9%
973
1,6
UCOME SUPPLIER DC INCENTIVE M+1 UCOME THEORETICAL DC INCENTIVE M+1
3,00
2,80
2,60
2,40
2,20
2,00
1,80
Partner & Biofuels Broker
1,60
Weekly var -0,1 1,40
PRODUCER (8)
Weekly var (%) 9,0% 1,20
UCO MARKET
UNIT
EUR per ton
FEB
630,0
EUR
EUR per
per ton
ton UCO DDP NWE M+1
650
USD per ton UCO CIF ARA M+1
660
Director GREENEA Geneva
640 640
630
UCO DDP NWE (9) Weekly var 5,0 620 620
Weekly var (%) 0,8% 610 600
600
•
590 580
USD per ton 615,0
10+ years of experience in biofuels & energy brokerage
UCO CIF ARA FLEXI (bid) 580 560
Weekly var 10,0 570 540
(10) 560
Weekly var (%) 1,6% 550 520
540 500
TME MARKET
EUR per ton
UNIT JAN FEB MAR TME SUPPLIER M+1 TME THEORETICAL M+1
USD per ton 109 137 150 930
TME PREMIUM (11) 880
EUR per ton 95 119 131
830
EUR per ton 816 845 856
780
TME THEORETICAL (12) Weekly var 64 83 56
730
Weekly var (%) 7,8% 9,8% 6,6%
680
EUR per ton 840,0
630
TME PRODUCER (13) Weekly var 10,0
Weekly var (%) 1,2% 580
UNIT PRICE Weekly var Monthly var Monthly var (%) LOWEST* HIGHEST* 30 DAYS AVG
GASOIL USD per ton 550 39 -20 -3,6% 492 736 527
EUR / USD USD per ton 1,145 0,000 0,005 0,4% 1,125 1,177 1,139
FAME 0°C M+1 USD per ton 825 45 35 4,2% 740 918 794
RME M+1 USD per ton 1007 2 -301 -29,9% 891 1495 1090
CFPP Value M+1 USD per °C 15,17 -3,58 -28,00 -184,6% 1,00 61,67 25
MARKET SUMMARY UCOME Th. M+1 USD per ton 1010 55 65 6,4% 875 1015 967
UCOME Producer M+1 EUR per ton 850 25 25 2,9% 760 885 833
TME Producer M+1 EUR per ton 840 10 20 2,4% 775 870 829
UCO DDP NWE M+1 EUR per ton 630 5 30 4,8% 580 645 622
UCO CIF ARA Flexi M+1
USD per ton 615 10 35 5,7% 560 645 596
(bid) *since July
Legend:
(0) Gasoil : ICE gasoil USD per ton ARA range
(1) Indicative value of the fatty acid methyl esters (FAME) in USD per ton FOB ARA range, T2
(2) Indicative value of the rapeseed biodiesel (RME) in USD per ton FOB ARA range, T2
(3) CFPP value: indicative value of the point of CFPP based on RME -12°C
(4) Indicative average value of UCOME Premium over FAME 0°C FOB ARA with CFPP +0°C in EUR per ton with sustainability UK, DDC, FRDC, GHG >90%, T2
(5) Indicative average value of UCOME FOB ARA with CFPP +0°C in EUR per ton with sustainability UK, DDC, FRDC, GHG >90%, T2
(6) UCOME DC Incentive: UCOME premium over GO / FAME 0°C premium over GO
(7) Indicative average value of UCOME FOB ARA with CFPP +2°C in EUR per ton with sustainability UK, DDC, FRDC, GHG >90%, T2
Jorge Leonhard Gwénaëlle Le Martina
(8) UCOME DC Incentive: UCOME premium over GO based on supplier price corrected by 2 point of CFPP / FAME 0°C premium over GO
(9) Indicative average value of used cooking oil DDP NWE with FFA max 5%, MIU max 2%, IV 75, Sulfur max 35ppm
(10) Indicative average bid value of used cooking oil from oversea CIF ARA in flexi tank, T1, with FFA max 5%, MIU max 2%, IV 75, Sulfur max 45ppm
(11) (12) Calculated value of the TME Premium over FAME 0°C FOB ARA taking into account a discount of 5 points of CFPP
(13) Indicative average value of TME FOB ARA with CFPP +11°C, Sulfur max 12ppm, mono max 0.15 in EUR per ton with sustainability UK, DDC, FRDC, IT DC, T2
Sanchez Beuth Roch Kadukova
Disclaimer:
The information presented in this document is provided for informational and demonstrational purposes only. The data is purely indicative and gives no warranty of prices at which transactions may be affected at any time. To the maximum extent permitted by law, no responsibility or liability for the
accuracy, quality, correctness or comprehensiveness of the data will be accepted by GREENEA whether arising from the negligence or otherwise. GREENEA shall in no circumstances be liable for economic loss or any indirect or consequential loss or damages arising from the use of this data. This report
is provided to you for informational purposes only. The information contained in this report is not intended to be, and does not constitute, a recommendation of trading strategy.
GREENEA - S.A.S.U.
5, chemin des Perrières 17330 Coivert - France
Tél.: +33 5 79 97 97 50 - Email: contact@greenea.com - Web: http://www.greenea.com
SIRET: 498 998 244 00012 - TVA Intracommunautaire: FR49498998244
Biofuels Biofuels Logistics & Accounting &
Broker Broker Operations Administration
11Your brokerage & consulting partner for biofuels
#2 Research in Biofuels at the Energy Risk Commodity Rankings 2019
#2 Global Biofuels Broker in the Energy Risk Commodity Rankings 2019
Fabien Hillairet
Copyright © 2019 Greenea. All rights reserved.
Managing Director of GREENEA
Biofuels & Feedstock Broker
fabien.hillairet@greenea.com
Tel + 33 5 79 97 97 51
Arezki Djelouadji
Senior Consultant
arezki.djelouadji@greenea.com
Tel + 33 5 79 97 97 50
http://www.greenea.com/en/publications/
Disclaimer : The information presented in this document is provided for informational and demonstrational purposes
GREENEA GREENEA GENEVA SA only. The data is purely indicative and gives no warranty of prices at which transactions may be affected at any time. To
5 chemin des Perrières 6 Place de l’Université the maximum extent permitted by law, no responsibility or liability for the accuracy, quality, correctness or
17330 Coivert 1205 Geneva comprehensiveness of the data will be accepted by GREENEA whether arising from the negligence or otherwise.
France Switzerland GREENEA shall in no circumstances be liable for economic loss or any indirect or consequential loss or damages arising
12
from the use of this data.You can also read
