THE ALUMINIUM STORY www.thealuminiums - TMS
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THE
ALUMINIUM
STORY
www.thealuminiumstory.com
March 10-14, 2019 • San Antonio. Texas. USA
#TMSAnnualMeeting • www.tms.org/TMS2019
Sir Jonathan Ive
Chief Design Officer, Apple
“The best design acknowledges that you
“The only way to make the MacBook Pro
can't disconnect the form from the material.
unibody was to machine it from a single
piece of aluminium.”
The material informs the form.”
“The Commerzbank Building is clad
in durable, anodized aluminium rain
screen panels, lasting for decades”
NORMAN FOSTER
Foster + Partners
“The use of aluminium…brings “...the material of choice” benefits in terms of: • weight savings, • improved fuel efficiency, • lower emissions, • increased crash safety, and... • better vehicle dynamics”
“Aluminium allows Bombardier to manufacture low weight vehicles and thus reduce environmental impact, with a high quality exterior finish” Guillaume Rétaux Director Strategic Sourcing
Dismantling of
integrated value Increasing demand
chain from customers for
responsibly sourced
The industry must aluminium
demonstrate that...
1. it produces responsibly, by mitigating environmental impacts and
positively impacting the communities in which it operates;
2. its products bring a net benefit to society in terms of reduced
environmental impact; improved quality of life, health, safety & wellness
and economic growth;
3. at the end of product life, the value of the metal, the energy that went
into its production and the resource inputs are retained and realised as
another product, through collection and recycling or energy recovery.
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
• All sectors:
• Approx. 50 Gt CO2e in 2010 *
• [ likely ~60 Gt CO2e in 2018 ]
• Aluminium industry (cradle to gate):
• 1 Gt CO2e in 2018 †
Source: * IPCC 2014, † IAI
Source: IPCC 2014, IAI
…of which
aluminium ~1%
…of which
aluminium
Vehicle light-weighting • 1 kg of aluminium, replacing heavier materials in a car or light truck, can save 20 kg of CO2 over the vehicle life; • Similar number for electric vehicles in coal-intensive grids such as India and China; • Up to 80 kg CO2 per kg aluminium used in trains; • The 20 million tonnes of aluminium shipped to the transportation sector every year could save half a billion tonnes of CO2 and over 100 billion litres of crude oil.
Building applications:
durability matters
Source: KieranTimberlake Research Group/IAIProtective packaging
Source: European Aluminium Foil AssociationALUMINIUM DEMAND
Semis shipments per annum
180
Other
160
140 Consumer Durables
120 Machinery & Equipment
Million tonnes
100
Electrical
80
Packaging
60
40 Building & Construction
20
Transport
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Source: IAIThree quarters of all aluminium ever produced is still in productive use • 1.3 billion tonnes produced since 1888 • One billion tonnes still in use • A positive recycling story but…
…more significantly a story of • Demand growth • For light, strong, conductive, protective products • 800 million tonnes produced since 2000 • Durability • Long lifetime products not yet reached the end of “First Life” • Long lifetime products tend to have high recycling rates (>90%)
Primary continues to dominate supply
180
Million tonnes 2000 2018 2040
160
Semis demand 35 95 160
Required Primary
140
Semis demand (Mt Al)
Recycled (Old) Final product demand 30 80 140
120 Recycled (New)
100
Recycled aluminium 12 31 70
80
...of which “old” 7 18 50
60
40
...of which “new” 5 13 20
20
0 Primary required 25 64 90
Source: IAIRAW MATERIALS
Global bauxite demand
500 • + 50% by 2040;
450
400 • Additional 150 Mtpa;
350 • China ratio 60:40 domestic to
Million tonnes
300 imported to reverse (40:60);
250
200 • Fast growing regions of supply
150 bring risks
100 • supply,
50
• political,
0
• environmental,
• reputational. Source: IAIWhat is included?
Community
Sustainable Environmental
assessment Health &
mining Governance assessment &
& safety
practices performance
contributionGuideline use
Theory and how
it applies to
bauxite mining
One or more
case study per
section;
• Do’s and don’t’s practical
• Key risks examples
• Mitigations
Bauxite specific
guidelinesWASTE MANAGEMENT
SPL and bauxite residue
Annual generation Cumulative bauxite residue
250 9
Spent Pot Lining (SPL)
Bauxite residue 8
200 7
6
Million tonnes
Billion tonnes
150
Primary 5
production 4
100
3
50 2
1
0 0
Source: IAILocal
Environment
Other
• Optimal strategy for a site at identified
Local
Communities
a given time; risks
• Not “one-size fits all”; Risk
• Approaches evolve to Management
accommodate innovations;
Residue Regulatory
• Best available technology, composition framework
appropriate to local, national
and regional circumstances. Government
policiesENERGY AND GREENHOUSE GASES
Growth of primary production
70 Estimated Unreported
60 Oceania
Million tonnes primary aluminium
South America
50
North America
40
East Europe (inc Russia)
30 West Europe
20 GCC
China
10
Asia (ex. China)
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2018 Africa
Source: IAIElectrolytic energy intensity reduced by
over 15% since 1980
17.5
17.0
16.5
kWh (AC) / kg Al
16.0
North America
15.5
15.0
14.5
World
14.0
China
13.5
13.0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Source: IAIGlobally smelter power is now 60% coal-fired
900
Estimated
800 unreported
Other
700 renewables
600 Oil
TWh
500
Gas
400
Nuclear
300
200 Coal
100 Hydro
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015Carbon footprint
primary aluminium cradle-to-gate
25
Transport
20
Thermal Energy
t CO2e / t Al
15
Ancillary Materials
10
Direct Process
5 Electricity
0
World China Australia Europe GCC Canada
Source: IAI, GaBiIAI Member Company Low CO2 Market Offerings
Million tonnes
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0
100
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2040 scenario
2030
2035
Primary production
Source: IAI 2040Primary production
2040 scenario
100
Rest of World
90
80 Other Asia
70 North America
Million tonnes
60
GCC
50
Latin/South America
40
30 Japan
20 Europe
10
China
0
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040 Source: IAISource: IAI, GaBi
Total GHG emissions
Historic 2040 Scenarios (90 Mt Al)
1,600
1,400
1,200
Million tonnes CO2e
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2010 2015 2018 New coal New gas New hydro 1/3 Mix +Inert
Anode
Bauxite Alumina Anode production Smelting direct Smelting electricity Smelting other indirect CastingCONCLUSIONS
2040 baseline scenario • 50% increase in semis demand from today; • Increased recycling rates only offer limited potential, due to long life of products; • Scrap quality also an issue; • Primary aluminium will continue to meet the bulk of metal demand, at least until mid-century; • 90 Mt primary required (65 Mt today).
Increasing risks • Raw materials supply and waste management; • Significant range of greenhouse gas emissions, primarily a function of power mix; • Location of new smelting capacity uncertain, but likely fossil fuelled power; • Some companies are already marketing “low impact” aluminium in response to customer demands.
Dismantling of
integrated value Increasing demand
chain from customers for
responsibly sourced
The industry must aluminium
demonstrate that...
1. it produces responsibly, by mitigating environmental impacts and
positively impacting the communities in which it operates;
2. its products bring a net benefit to society in terms of reduced
environmental impact; improved quality of life, health, safety & wellness
and economic growth;
3. at the end of product life, the value of the metal, the energy that went
into its production and the resource inputs are retained and realised as
another product, through collection and recycling or energy recovery.180
160 Required Primary
Recycled (Old)
140
Semis demand (Mt Al)
Recycled (New)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Source: IAIYou can also read
