TAURANGA CITY'S ACCESSIBLE STREETS PROGRAMME - Tauranga City Council
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Tauranga cycling network programme Table of Contents Executive Summary Purpose ............................................................................................................................................................. 4 Improving transport choice in a growing city ........................................................................................... 4 Refining the cycling investment story .......................................................................................................... 5 Part A: Strategic context ................................................................................................................................. 7 Problems associated with cycling in Tauranga......................................................................................... 7 Evidence for the problems ............................................................................................................................ 7 Benefits of addressing problems associated with cycling in Tauranga ............................................. 18 Investment objectives .................................................................................................................................. 19 Part B – Developing the Programme ........................................................................................................... 20 Cycling network options .............................................................................................................................. 20 Option Assessment ........................................................................................................................................ 26 Recommended cycling network ............................................................................................................... 29 Part C: Delivering the recommended cycling network ............................................................................ 32 Phased Delivery Plan .................................................................................................................................... 32 Economic Case ............................................................................................................................................. 38 Financial Case ............................................................................................................................................... 41 Commercial Case ......................................................................................................................................... 43 Management Case ...................................................................................................................................... 44 Appendix A: Cycle Demand Assessment ................................................................................................. 53 Appendix B – MCA results ............................................................................................................................ 54 MCA results: Tauranga cycling network options..................................................................................... 55
Tauranga cycling network programme List of Figures Figure 1: Projected 10-year growth allocations ................................................................................................................... 4 Figure 2: Overall cycle safety in New Zealand metro cities .............................................................................................. 8 Figure 3: Perceptions of cycling safety in different environments .................................................................................... 8 Figure 4: The perceived disadvantages of active transport modes ............................................................................... 9 Figure 5: BOP Region - Transport expenditure $m (NZTA and Approved Organisations) 2007/8 - 2016/17 ............ 12 Figure 6: BOP region - Forecast costs $m (submitted for NLTF investment) 2018/19 - 2023/24 .................................. 12 Figure 7: Total cycling expenditure funded by NZTA and Approved Organisations from 2007/8 - 2016/17 .......... 12 Figure 8: New Zealand household travel survey 2014-18 ................................................................................................. 13 Figure 9: Public survey on Tauranga transport choices, 2019*........................................................................................ 13 Figure 10: Tauranga City cycle network, 2017 ................................................................................................................... 15 Figure 11: Cycling and Pedestrian crashes in Tauranga, 2014 - 2018 ............................................................................ 16 Figure 12: Short car trips (potential cycle trips) 2018 (left) and 2043 (right) ................................................................. 23 Figure 13: Medium-length car trips (potential e-bike trips) 2018 (left) and 2043 (right) ............................................. 24 Figure 14: Potential major cycle routes ............................................................................................................................... 25 Figure 15: Map of recommended cycling network .......................................................................................................... 30 Figure 16: Priority areas for investigation ............................................................................................................................. 34 Figure 17: Priority areas for delivery 2029 to 2043 .............................................................................................................. 36 Figure 18: Route option and infrastructure – high level process and timeline (per area) ......................................... 37 Figure 19: Walking and cycling governance structure .................................................................................................... 44 List of Tables Table 1: Capital expenditure for the Cycle Action Plan implementation ...................................................................... 6 Table 2: Pedestrian and Cycle Related Crashes in Tauranga City 2014-18 ................................................................. 16 Table 3: Cycling network options for Tauranga ................................................................................................................. 21 Table 4: Potential cycle and e-bike trips (morning peak hour) ...................................................................................... 24 Table 5: Criteria used in the cycling multi-criteria assessment ........................................................................................ 26 Table 6: Summarised MCA results to identify the optimal cycling network option ..................................................... 27 Table 7: Summary of forecast cycle network statistics ..................................................................................................... 38 Table 8: Discounted programme benefits .......................................................................................................................... 38 Table 9: Results alignment self-assessment ......................................................................................................................... 39 Table 10: Indicative cycling network cashflow.................................................................................................................. 41 Table 11: Proposed funding arrangements ........................................................................................................................ 42 Table 12: Cycling network monitoring regime ................................................................................................................... 47 Table 13: Key delivery risks and management actions .................................................................................................... 48 Page | ii
Tauranga cycling network programme Document history and QA/QC Prepared by NB Consulting, in conjunction with Flow Transportation Specialists and Tauranga City Council staff. Version Author Date Reviewer Date V1.0 JS 20-9-2019 Click or tap here to enter text. DD-MM-YYYY V1.1 JS 11-03-2020 Click or tap here to enter text. DD-MM-YYYY V2.0 JS & BP 17-04-2020 NC 17-04-2020 V2.1 TCC staff, BP & JS 23-04-2020 Click or tap here to enter text. DD-MM-YYYY V2.2 TCC staff, BP & JS 24-04-2020 Click or tap here to enter text. DD-MM-YYYY Page | iii
Tauranga cycling network programme Executive Summary Over the last 30 years Tauranga City has doubled in size and is now New Zealand’s fifth largest city. With growth forecast to continue in the future, the city and wider Western Bay of Plenty sub-region have undertaken an Urban Form and Transport Initiative programme business case to identify how best to manage growth in terms of where people live and how they can move. At the same time, the sub-region and city has started to change the way it is developing the transport system and the way people use transport particularly at peak times. The changes mainly focus on and providing viable transport alternatives (such as public transport, and personal mobility 1) to private vehicles, particularly when travelling to work and school. This cycling network programme is one component of a wider suite of initiatives being developed by Tauranga City Council, in partnership with other agencies, to improve personal mobility, accessibility and travel choice in Tauranga. Whilst this programme is focussed on cycling in the first instance, it is expected that secondary benefits will accrue to other modes that can also utilise cycling connections and routes – such as walking and small wheeled electric devices e.g. mobility and electric scooters. The investment logic underpinning the programme is summarised below. It draws heavily on the investment rationale outlined in the Tauranga Transport Strategy 2012-2042, and the Tauranga Cycling Plan 2017/18, including the principle of enhancing cycling opportunities for all ages and abilities. Problems: P1: Perceptions of cycling safety risks acts as a disincentive to the uptake of people who want to bike more or try biking P2: Transport investment has historically focused on increasing roading capacity and less on other transport modes, which has contributed to a high private vehicle usage when travelling to work and education facilities P3: The lack of protection for cyclists contributes to cycling related DSIs Benefits: B1: Cycling is widely accepted as a safe and attractive alternative transport choice in both existing and newly developed urban areas B2: Improved health, environmental, social, and place outcomes B3: Improved access to opportunities, particularly for people with low levels of transport choice B4: Increased safety for people using bikes Investment objectives: IO1: Increase of peak mode share of cycling to work trips in Tauranga from 3% to 8% by 2043 IO2: Double active travel in Tauranga from 200 annual km travelled by walking and cycling per capita to 400km by 2043. IO3: 25% reduction in annual walking and cycling DSIs in Tauranga from the existing 16 annual DSIs In developing the cycling network options, a cycling model developed by Flow Transportation Ltd (Flow) was used to determine the key cycling origins and destinations model. The model was used to identify broad 1Personal mobility is used broadly to include people walking, cycling, using e-mobility devices (e-scooters etc) and other mobility devices that are low powered, low speed, usually have two wheels, and are mainly designed to move one person at a time. i
Tauranga cycling network programme areas where there is high potential demand for cycle trips across Tauranga City, and how these areas might connect if appropriate cycle infrastructure was to be provided. Drawing heavily on this strategic demand assessment, five different programmes were then tested to help identify a programme that would best achieve the investment objectives identified above. The cycling network options were assessed using a multi-criteria analysis (MCA). The assessment was based on the quantification of benefits identified in the modelling work, together with an assessment of technical and delivery considerations. The assessment was completed by NB Consulting and Flow. The recommended programme, identified through the MCA, is a strategic cycling network based on the development of key ‘Areas and Connectors’. This network focuses on key cycle arterials, including 99km of new and improved cycle routes, together with traffic calming measures on local streets in some areas (particularly around community facilities) to support safe and convenient access to connector routes. A ‘hierarchy of principles’ were then applied to the strategic network to identify immediate priorities for delivery over the next ten years. These principles included prioritising corridors / segments with a high concentration of school trips, together with those that connect to high employment areas and facilitate travel to the city centre. The resulting corridors in the Otumoetai/Bethlehem areas and Mount Maunganui/Bayfair areas have been identified as focus areas for the next ten years, to progress delivery of the recommended strategic network. Over time, the recommended programme is expected to provide people of all ages and all abilities with a safe and viable transport alternative to the private motor vehicle, to access key employment and education destinations across the City. With potential to increase cycle mode share for work trips and school trips to 9.6% and 14.7% respectively by 20432, the recommended option is predicted to result in a step-change in cycling (including e-bikes) uptake, particularly within central Tauranga, Otumoetai and Mount Maunganui. The quality and extent of infrastructure proposed means it will provide an integrated cycling network that will generally resolve conflicts between modes, with the exceptions of key intersections. The forecast mode share and average trip lengths under the recommended programme, together with the DSI savings, are closely aligned with the stated investment objectives. Key programme risks relate to consenting and constructability challenges, given the extent and complexity of the physical works and public engagement that is likely to be required. It is expected that these issues, and associated mitigation measures, will be considered in more detail during the single stage business case phase. The provisional cost estimate of the recommended programme is $206-257m3, including pre-implementation and property costs. The discounted economic benefits of the programme have been provisionally estimated at $396m4, consisting mostly of walking and cycling health benefits, with smaller components of travel time, safety, and decongestion benefits. There are benefits such as the reduction in transport emissions that have not been included in the benefit cost ratio. Operating costs are estimated to be around 1% of the cycling programme costs per annum or around $2.1 – 2.6m per annum, with whole of life maintenance and operating costs estimated to be approximately $15 - 18m. As a city-shaping infrastructure programme, the recommended cycling strategic network option has been assessed as having a high results alignment against the Transport Agency’s Investment Assessment Framework, for safety, access – liveable cities, environment strategic priorities. Coupled with the programme’s indicative BCR range of 2.7-3.3, the overall priority of the programme is assessed to have an investment priority rating of 4. 2 Compared to a 2043 baseline of 5.0% and 8.8% respectively assuming no further investment 3 Based non-discounted costs, discounted the programme is estimated at $120-149m 4 Based on discounted benefits over the 30-year programme Page | ii
Tauranga cycling network programme TCC has sufficient confidence in the selection of the recommended network option, that it has started the process for designing some of the key routes as per the recommended strategic network. A series of area/corridor based single stage business cases (SSBC) will be developed over the next 6-12 months, to identify the recommended route(s) and detailed designs. Engagement with key stakeholders and community will occur as part of the SSBC process. A guide to how the document responds to the relevant NZTA investment questions for the business case approach is provided below. NZTA Investment Questions Document ref. Problems Is it clear what the problem is that needs to be addressed (both the Page 7 cause and the effect)? Is there evidence to confirm the cause and effect of the problem? Pages 7-16 Does the problem need to be assessed at this time? Pages 7-16 Is the problem specific to this investment (or should a broader Pages 7-16 perspective be taken)? Benefits Have the benefits that will result from fixing the problem been Page 17 adequately defined? Are the benefits of high value to the organisation(s) (furthering its Page 17 (their) objectives)? Will the KPIs that have been specified provide reasonable evidence Page 17 that the benefits have been delivered? Are the KPIs both measurable and totally attributable to this Page 17 investment? Strategic Have a sufficient range of strategic alternatives and options been Pages 19-24 response explored (demand, productivity, and supply)? Is it clear what strategic alternatives and options are proposed and See Table 3, pages 19- the rationale for their selection? 24, MCA in Appendix B Are the proposed alternatives and options the most effective response Page 28-30 to the problem (comprehensive and balanced)? Are the proposed alternatives and options feasible? Pages 31-50 Page | iii
Tauranga cycling network programme Introduction Purpose This cycling network programme outlines the rationale for why investment for a cycling network in Tauranga is necessary to increase the number of people walking and cycling. The document outlines: • how the optimal strategic cycling network was chosen; • the recommended 10-year cycling investment programme; and • how Tauranga City Council will work with investment partners to implement the strategic cycling network to encourage more people to cycle and walk and use personal mobility devices when travelling to work and school. The programme gives effect to the multi-modal transport system objectives that have been identified through the Urban Form and Transport Initiative (UFTI) and the Regional Land Transport Programme, and complements other longer term initiatives that are being progressed by Council and its partners to make walking, cycling, personal mobility and public transport safer and more accessible and attractive to use 5. Improving transport choice in a growing city Tauranga City and the wider Western Bay of Plenty sub-region are growing fast – over the last 30 years the City’s population has doubled in size, and both the City and sub-region are expected to continue to grow at a steady pace over the next 30 plus years6. Figure 1: Projected 10-year growth allocations7 5 Refer Part B – alternatives and options section for examples of activities delivered under wider programme 6 Tauranga Urban Strategy 2050, proposed Future Development Strategy, and UFTI Foundation Report 2019 7 SmartGrowth – Tauranga City Population and Household projection review 2017 Page | 4
Tauranga cycling network programme As Tauranga City grows, access to economic and social opportunities via the transport system is becoming increasingly challenging, particularly at peak times. Private motor vehicle use dominates in Tauranga, and there are few viable alternatives for how people can move throughout the City. Compared to other New Zealand cities, Tauranga8 has: • one of the highest percentage of people who use a private motor vehicle to travel to work (91%) • the lowest percentage of people who travel to work via public transport (2%), or walk to work (4%) • one of the lowest percentages of people who cycle to work (3%). Several multi-agency initiatives such as SmartGrowth, the Tauranga Transport Strategy and the Urban Form & Transport Initiative (UFTI) have recognised that land use and urban form along with a well-functioning multi- modal transport system are critical to people’s ability to live, learn, work, and play in the Western Bay of Plenty (WBOP) sub-region. From these initiatives, the WBOP sub-region is looking to ‘grow up and out’ creating a more compact urban form that provides greater housing and transport choices. These changes are necessary to help maximise productivity, enable safe access to social and economic opportunities, and help achieve better environmental and health outcomes. This is consistent with increasingly calls from the community for greater transport choices and a transport system that does not always require the use of a car 9. More recently, the Transport Agency’s National Mode Shift Strategy (Keep Cities Moving) has identified Tauranga City as one of the six critical locations in NZ to grow the share of public transport, walking and cycling, and create more vibrant and liveable cities. The Strategy recognises that Tauranga’s current population size, together with the pace and scale of forecast growth, creates both an urgency and an opportunity for change. Refining the cycling investment story The Tauranga Transport Strategy 2012-2042 (TTS) is a multi- agency strategy aimed at providing greater transport choice and improved access. It is based on the premise that demand - particularly at peak - and vehicle growth is outstripping the ability to additional road capacity to address the growing demand. To better manage future demand and available capacity, the TTS emphasises the need to focus on integrated land use and transport planning to enable greater access to where people want and need to travel to and investing in other transport modes such as public transport and cycling. The TTS identified (amongst other things) that opportunities exist to increase levels of cycling for the journey to work beyond current levels and the current national average. In doing so the TTS recommended the development of a network of cycling routes to provide safe facilities that connect to main destinations such as schools and commercial centres; and to encourage future increases in the number of those cycling for commuter purposes. The Tauranga Cycling Plan 2017/18 (TCP) investigated further why investment in cycling programmes and improvements are necessary; and examines the potential and latent demand for cycling within Tauranga. The TCP provided a mechanism for Council to engage with local communities and stakeholders on cycling. It identified a series of area-wide improvements across the City aimed at encouraging people of all ages and all abilities to ride bikes for transport purposes, particularly to work, school and tertiary education. The TCP, together with the draft 2018 Cycling Business Case, informed Tauranga City Council’s decision to approve investment of up to $36m to accelerate delivery of the TCP, as part of the Long-Term Plan (LTP) 2018- 8Journeys to work, 2013 New Zealand Census 9Tauranga Urban Strategy Vision 2050 https://www.tauranga.govt.nz/Portals/0/data/future/strategic_planning/strategic_focus/files/tga_urban_vision.pdf Page | 5
Tauranga cycling network programme 28, see Table 1. The total value of the Cycling Plan is estimated at $100m over ten years, and Council’s decision to allocate funds assumes the balance of costs (51% Financial Assistance Rate) will be met by Government from the National Land Transport Fund (NLTF) [1]. Council through its Annual Plan discussion will look to address the potential funding shortfall to achieve its share to deliver the recommended cycling network option. The TCP, together with the draft 2018 Cycling Business Case, informed Tauranga City Council’s decision to approve investment of up to $36m to accelerate delivery of the TCP, as part of the Long-Term Plan (LTP) 2018- 28, see Table 1. The total value of the Cycling Plan is estimated at $100m over ten years, and Council’s decision to allocate funds assumes the balance of costs (51% Financial Assistance Rate) will be met by Government from the National Land Transport Fund (NLTF) 10. Council through its Annual Plan discussion will look to address the potential funding shortfall to achieve its share to deliver the recommended cycling network option. Table 1: Capital expenditure for the Cycle Action Plan implementation The proposed Cycling Programme (this document) has been prepared to support a RLTP and NLTF funding application to deliver the recommended cycling network. It uses relevant parts of the TTS, TCP, and draft Cycling Business Case to bring together Tauranga cycling investment story in one place. The Cycling Programme: • draws together the reasons why Council is investing in cycling initiatives and improvements • outlines how a cycling network has been developed for Tauranga that responds to the identified problems, delivers on the benefits, and supports an increase in cyclists • outlines a prioritisation order for implementation and delivery. To help reinforce the multi-modal investment sought via the TTS and subsequent investment plans, the Cycling Programme has been prepared in a way that enables it to be the cycling appendix to UFTI, the TTS, or similar transport system planning document. This is necessary to ensure that the cycling network plan developed remains connected to the wider transport system and that investment and improvements to improve personal mobility and accessibility are not made in isolation of other transport modes. [1]Refer Tauranga Long Term Plan 2018 for details https://www.tauranga.govt.nz/Portals/0/data/council/long_term_plans/2018_2028/files/intro_key_decisions.pdf 10 Refer Tauranga Long Term Plan 2018 for details https://www.tauranga.govt.nz/Portals/0/data/council/long_term_plans/2018_2028/files/intro_key_decisions.pdf Page | 6
Tauranga cycling network programme Part A: Strategic context The strategic context outlines the problems, benefits, and investment objectives. Included is the evidence to support the cause and effect of the identified problems. This section draws upon the work Council has previously completed in developing the Tauranga Cycling Plan and the Tauranga Transport Strategy. Problems associated with cycling in Tauranga An investment logic mapping (ILM) exercise was held when developing the Tauranga Cycling Plan. From this ILM the following problems were identified and subsequently refined further for the development of the Tauranga cycling network. Problem 1: Perceptions of cycling safety risks acts as a disincentive to the uptake of people who want to bike more or try biking Problem 2: Transport investment has historically focused on increasing roading capacity and less on other transport modes, which has contributed to a high private vehicle usage when travelling to work and education facilities Problem 3: The lack of protection for cyclists contributes to cycling related DSIs Evidence for the problems Evidence supporting the three identified problem statements is outlined below. The evidence supports the cause and effect of each problem. Problem one: evidence Problem: Perceptions of safety risk acts as a disincentive to the uptake of people who want to cycle more or try cycling Cause: There is a fear of biking based on the perception that Tauranga’s roads are too dangerous due to the volume and speed of traffic Effect: Less people are willing to cycle more or try cycling For many people, the volume and speed of traffic on the transport network means that they have a fear of trying cycling as a mode of transport. In a 2017 Council survey11, 59 percent of adults surveyed did not think it was safe or easy for adults to cycle in Tauranga. Approximately 46% of young people and 80% of adults surveyed did not think that Tauranga is safe or easy for young people (under 16-years) to ride bikes. In the same survey, 91% of respondents though separated cycling routes were necessary. This helps indicate that the fear of exposure to other traffic and the perceived consequences of cycling related injuries is sufficient to reduce the number of people willing to cycle or let their children cycle. The perception of cycling being unsafe is not uncommon or unique to Tauranga. Research conducted for the NZ Transport Agency in 201612 shows 61% of urban New Zealanders believe it was unsafe to cycle in urban 11 The survey undertaken by Tauranga City Council in 2017 as part of developing the Tauranga Cycle Plan https://www.tauranga.govt.nz/Portals/0/data/future/cycle_action_plan/files/cycle_plan_feedback_summary.pdf 12 Urban New Zealanders attitudes and perceptions of cycling, 2016. Available at https://www.nzta.govt.nz/assets/Walking- Cycling-and-Public-Transport/docs/Urban-Cycling-Attitudes-Baseline-2016.pdf accessed in March 2019. It is important to note that no participants involved in this survey live in Tauranga. Page | 7
Tauranga cycling network programme settings, and 75% said they would cycle if the roads and cycling network were safer. In a follow up survey in 201813, 52% of participants said they do not feel safe cycling because of the way people drive. In the same survey, 40% of participant said they felt safe cycling in Tauranga, see Error! Reference source not found., with 50% of Tauranga based participants noting they do not feel safe cycling because of the way people drive. Figure 2: Overall cycle safety in New Zealand metro cities In the same survey (see Error! Reference source not found.), respondents said they feel safer as the distance and separation from other modes and/or as the speed of traffic decreases. While only one in five people surveyed think it is safe to cycle on a road with no cycle lanes, the willingness to cycle increases significantly when traffic volumes are less or when there is greater separation between traffic and cyclists. Figure 3: Perceptions of cycling safety in different environments 13Understanding attitudes and perceptions of Cycling & Walking, 2018. Available at https://www.nzta.govt.nz/assets/Walking-Cycling-and-Public-Transport/docs/NZTA-Attitudes-to-cycling-and-walking-final- report-2018.pdf. This survey included participants living in Tauranga. Page | 8
Tauranga cycling network programme More recently, a 2019 survey of travel demand in Tauranga 14 showed that walking and cycling is considered unsafe by both users and car drivers, and is a key concern of people who are considering switching to an alternative mode of transport (as shown in Error! Reference source not found.). Figure 4: The perceived disadvantages of active transport modes Perceived safety as a barrier for people to cycle has been established by several studies internationally. One method to better understand different tolerances to perceived safety risk, is to classify people based on their risk tolerance – known as the Geller method (2009). Based on Geller’s method the city’s population (both existing cyclists and those that do not currently bike) can be divided into four type of people who cycle or do not for transportation purpose. Geller’s four cohorts are1516: 14 Managing Travel Demand in Tauranga survey, Nexus 2019 (commissioned by NZTA) 15 Note that the percentage for each cohort is based on research completed by Dil and McNeil (2012) which an adaption of Geller’s original schematic to provide approximate portions based on City of Portland, US. 16 It is important to recognise that the proportion of each group is not deter timed by the cycling provision currently available, rather they reflect the proportion of people who are likely to cycle as conditions change. It is also useful to note Geller’s method is based on those people who are willing to cycling for transportation purposes which makes it particularly applicable for developing Tauranga’s cycling network plan and sub-programme. Page | 9
Tauranga cycling network programme 1. Strong and fearless – this will choose to cycle regardless of the road and traffic conditions. They have usually learnt by sustained experience how best to interact assertively with traffic and have a low level of risk-aversion. This cohort typically accounts for about 6% of the population. 2. Enthused and confident – this group of cyclists will cycle on networks that provide little physical separation from other traffic. They prefer to have some space within the road space particularly on busy roads, either informally (e.g. wide kerbside lanes or shoulders) or formally (e.g. painted cycle lanes, advanced stop boxes. They place a higher importance on directness and will not generally divert far to choose a more attractive route such as an off-road path. This cohort typically accounts for about 9% of the population. 3. Interested but concerned – this cohort are, in principle at least, willing to cycle but are wary of doing so in certain circumstances. A large majority in this group consider that they know how to cycle in traffic, yet these people often do not feel comfortable doing so. Typically, with this group the greater the separation from traffic, the more likely they are to cycle or try cycling. This group typically accounts for approximately 60% of the population. 4. No way, no how - Some people will choose not to cycle for transport, regardless of infrastructure, road environment, or training provided. Some of this group could have physical limitations, others simply have a personal dislike of cycling that cannot be influenced. Typically, this group accounts for about 25% of the population New Zealand based surveys that include Tauranga and survey work undertaken by Tauranga City Council suggest that Geller’s cohorts are applicable for Tauranga, with some adjustments. For example, the 2017 Council survey indicated17% of respondents would start riding a bike and 64% would ride their bikes more if the right improvements were made. In the 2018, NZTA attitudes and perceptions survey, 49% of Tauranga based respondents noted that the development of infrastructure had played a vital role in encouraging them to cycle or cycle more. In the 2019 travel demand survey 28% of car drivers were open to changing to another mode, with those living closer to the CBD (in Central Tauranga/Greerton) more likely to be open to active modes. Based on New Zealand Census data, resident surveys, school cycle counts, cycle counts, and other feedback channels, in Tauranga it is likely the ‘strong and fearless’ and ‘enthused and confident’ cohorts are less at approximately 10%, and the ‘interested but concerned’ and ‘no way, no how’ cohorts are larger at 70% and 30% respectively. Given the potential size of the ‘interested but concerned’ cohort, undertaking a number of initiatives (both educational and support, along with cycling infrastructure improvements) is likely to help reduce the perceived safety risk and increase the number of people willing to cycling. Problem two: evidence Problem: Transport investment has historically focused on increasing roading capacity and less on other transport modes, which has contributed to a high private vehicle usage when travelling to work and education facilities Cause: Investment policies in alternative modes have historically been less mature than policies for investment in roading capacity Effect: There is high private vehicle usage in Tauranga when travelling to work and school Page | 10
Tauranga cycling network programme Over the last 32 years from 1986 to 2018 the population of Tauranga City has more than doubled from 60,000 to 135,00017. Commercial growth, industrial activity and freight movements have also increased significantly, supported in part by the continued expansion of the Port of Tauranga. Tauranga has seen considerable investment in its transport network in response to this growth, with investment priorities historically weighted towards congestion relief, freight efficiency (access to the Port of Tauranga) and economic performance. This has resulted in significant investment in road capacity improvements with new highways, additional lanes, and grade separation e.g. Harbour Link, Tauranga Eastern Link, and Takitimu Drive (SH29) projects. Whilst initiatives such as the Urban Cycling Fund have led to increased investment in walking and cycling networks across Tauranga and the wider region over the last 3-5 years, investment in these modes remains low as a percentage of the total transport spend (see Figure 5 and Figure 6). 17 Draft Tauranga Transport Programme Business Case (Revision F), July 2018 Page | 11
Tauranga cycling network programme Figure 5: BOP Region - Transport expenditure $m (NZTA and Approved Organisations) 2007/8 - 2016/17 Walking and cycling Roads - M&O and renewals Roads - new and improved $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 Figure 6: BOP region - Forecast costs $m (submitted for NLTF investment) 2018/19 - 2023/24 Walking & cycling Roads - M&O and renewals Roads - new and improved $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 The investment focus on roading capacity is not unique to Tauranga or the Bay of Plenty region. However, comparatively less has been invested in cycling in Tauranga City over the last 10 years, compared to other main centres in New Zealand (see Error! Reference source not found.). Figure 7: Total cycling expenditure funded by NZTA and Approved Organisations from 2007/8 - 2016/1718 Wellington City Tauranga City Hamilton City Dunedin City Christchurch City Auckland City $0 $10,000,000 $20,000,000 $30,000,000 $40,000,000 $50,000,000 $60,000,000 $70,000,000 18 Based on NLTP work category 453 Page | 12
Tauranga cycling network programme This investment focus has done little to change Tauranga City and the wider region’s heavy reliance on private motor vehicles. New Zealand Household Travel Survey data 19 (2014-18) shows Tauranga City has one of the highest rates of private vehicle use in the country, as per Figure 8. Figure 8: New Zealand household travel survey 2014-18 A 2019 travel demand survey in Tauranga, commissioned by NZTA, indicates that the car is the primary mode of choice for the vast majority of residents (89% of respondents), with 6% of respondents identifying active modes as their primary mode of travel. The same survey showed that work was the single biggest reason for travel in Tauranga, with central Tauranga and Mount Maunganui being key destinations of travel (as the City’s largest commercial/industrial hubs). These survey results closely mirror the finding of the travel to work surveys from the 2013 Census20. Whilst the number of people who drive to work is high, a 2019 customer survey completed by NZTA, suggests there a desire to travel to work and school via a range of transport modes as shown in Figure 9. Figure 9: Public survey on Tauranga transport choices, 2019* 19Source: NZTA National Mode Shift Strategy - Keep Cities moving 20Source: Benchmarking cycling and walking in six New Zealand cities - Pilot Study 2015, NZ Centre for Sustainable Cities http://sustainablecities.org.nz/wp-content/uploads/Benchmarking-cycling-and-walking-in-six-NZ-cities.pdf. Page | 13
Tauranga cycling network programme Latent demand was also implied in a 2017 Council survey21, which indicated that 93%-96% of people are willing to cycle 5km (15 minutes) to work and 64%-73% of people are willing to cycle 10km (30 minutes). These distances are likely to increase as electric bike use increases. Currently 85% of Tauranga’s population live within 5km of an employment area, and 98% are within 10km. These are considered distances that most able-bodied individuals are able to cycle with relative comfort. As 78% of the population are within 10km of the city centre (the City’s largest employment areas) and 70% are within 10km of employment areas around Hewletts Road and Totara St (the City’s second biggest employment area22), there appears to be potential to increase cycle use at peak times. As noted in the UFTI Foundation report, whilst there is evidence to suggest there is a public appetite for change, encouraging people out of private vehicles and offering them greater transport choice and access via other modes, including walking and cycling, will require a concerted effort and significant improvements across the transport system. 21 2017 survey by Tauranga City Council as part of Tauranga Cycle Plan 22 Tauranga Cycling Programme: Cycling Demand Assessment Page | 14
Tauranga cycling network programme Problem three: evidence Problem: The lack of protection for cyclists contributes to walking and cycling related DSIs Cause: Historically, road design guides have not adequately considered active modes leading to costly retrofitting or compromised levels of service Effect: There is an over-representation of walking and cycling related DSIs in Tauranga Tauranga has approximately 100km of on-street cycling lanes separated by road markings rather than any form of physical barrier see Figure 10Error! Reference source not found.. The cycle lane widths vary and are typically less than 1 metre wide. There is approximately 10km of dedicated cycling paths which are generally next to roads and a growing off-road cycle network through recreational parks and areas. The off-road paths provide critical connections between areas and in particular across the harbour to join Mount Maunganui and Papamoa with the City Centre and other areas. Currently, 10 intersections have intersection refuge markings for cyclists, and no intersections have a dedicated cycle traffic light. The network has been implemented over time as demand and space has allowed. This has meant that the cycling network has grown organically rather than with a particular network plan in mind. As a result, Tauranga is yet to implement a cycling level of service hierarchy that provides a greater degree of consistency about what cycling and other road users might expect. The organic growth and absence of a cycling hierarchy means some parts of Tauranga are not served by any cycleways and, where they do exist, the design, connectivity and functionality of the cycleways can vary widely. Furthermore, as noted in the UFTI Foundation Report, the convergence of commuters, public transport, pedestrians, cyclists, and freight on key points in the network is resulting in a number of conflicts across Tauranga’s transport system. These conflicts between the different modes have implications for the safe, effective, and efficient movement of people and goods. Figure 10: Tauranga City cycle network, 2017 Page | 15
Tauranga cycling network programme Combined, these factors appear to be contributing to the safety risks faced by cyclists in Tauranga, particularly when considering the location of crashes and the level of protection afforded to the cyclists by the existing network. Table 2 suggests cyclists are overrepresented in DSI crashes, given that bike trips account for approximately 1% of the total transport trips in Tauranga23. Table 2: Pedestrian and Cycle Related Crashes in Tauranga City 2014-18 Deaths and serious Mode specific DSIs as Minor and non-injury injuries (DSI) % of total DSIs Pedestrians 36 19% 99 Cyclists 22 12% 170 Total (pedestrians and cyclists) 58 31% 269 (11/year on average) The map in shows the location of all pedestrian and cyclist crashes between 2014 and 2018. As noted in the Tauranga Cycle Plan, there is significantly less reported crashes on Tauranga’s off-road cycleways and notable hotspots in the following high volume/multi modal locations: • Marine Parade • City Centre • Ocean Beach Rd • Cameron Rd • Maranui St/Papamoa Beach Road • 15th Avenue/Turret Road • Girven Rd • Judea/ Bethlehem areas Figure 11: Cycling and Pedestrian crashes in Tauranga, 2014 - 201824 23 Tauranga Cycle Plan – according to the Household Travel Survey 24 This map shows significant clusters by location. Where there are insufficient numbers to form a cluster the DSI is not shown. Page | 16
Tauranga cycling network programme Resolving these conflicts particularly in the City Centre on Cameron Rd and 15 th Ave/Turret Rd are not straightforward as these are the main urban arterials for all traffic. Further, the concentration of key destinations in Central Tauranga and the Mount, the harbour/peninsula geography which limit direct connections between key destinations means mode prioritisation is complex and may require rethinking what is status quo. This rethink is necessary to manage our transport system, improve safety, and prioritise modes and movements in a way that minimises the conflicts and improves safety outcomes for all road users. Page | 17
Tauranga cycling network programme Benefits of addressing problems associated with cycling in Tauranga The benefits from addressing the cause and effect of the identified cycling problems are: B1: Cycling is widely accepted as a safe and attractive alternative transport choice in both existing and newly developed urban areas B2: Improved health, environmental, social, place outcomes B3: Improved access to opportunities, particularly for people with low levels of transport choice B4: Increased safety for people using bikes These benefits are consistent with the type of benefits outlined in other NZTA approved cycling business cases and are aligned with NZTA cycling and investment guidance. The key performance indicators (KPIs) to measure benefit realisation are outlined below. NZTA investment performance measures have been used in the first instance and have been supplemented by existing Council measures where required. Benefit Key performance indicators (KPIs) B1. Cycling is widely accepted as a • Access – Perception: user surveys of perception of safety and safe and attractive alternative ease of walking and cycling transport choice in both existing • People throughput (peak hours): number of pedestrians and and newly developed urban areas cyclists at peak B2. Improved health, • Traffic – mode share (journey to work): number of transport users environmental, social, place by mode, expressed as percentages outcomes • Traffic – mode share (total): number of transport users by mode, expressed as percentages B3: Improved access to • Spatial coverage – cycle lanes and paths: percentage opportunities, particularly for completion of the cycle network people with low levels of transport • Access to key destinations: (proportion of population living choice within travel threshold (15 mins, 30 mins or 45 mins) of key social and economic opportunities (including work, education, health care, supermarkets) by different modes (walking, cycling, public transport, private motor vehicle) in the morning peak (this measure is used in UFTI, and would be measured through UFTI/ SmartGrowth) B4: Increased safety for people • Deaths and serious injuries (cyclists): annual number of deaths using bikes and serious injuries • Reported minor and non-injury crashes (cyclists): annual number of reported minor and non-injury crashes Page | 18
Tauranga cycling network programme Investment objectives The evidenced problems and benefits have informed development of the following SMART (Specific, measurable, achievable, realistic, and time-bound) investment objectives: 1. Increase of peak mode share of cycling to work trips in Tauranga from 3% to 8% by 2043 2. Double active travel in Tauranga from 200 annual km travelled by walking and cycling per capita to 400km by 2043 3. 25% reduction in annual walking and cycling DSIs in Tauranga from the existing 11 annual DSIs (5-year annual average 2014-2018) These investment objectives aim to establish realistic targets for assessing the strategy cycling network options. The targets draw heavily on outputs from the Tauranga Cycle Model (TCM), which was developed by Flow Transportation Specialists for Tauranga City Council for the purpose of informing development of this cycle programme. For the first investment objective, the current cycling commute mode share in Tauranga City is around 3% (based on 2013 Census Journey to Work and findings from the 2018 Tauranga Transport Hybrid Model 25). NZTA research26 indicates that mode share varies across the urban area with the highest use of active modes (as a primary mode of travel) noted for trips originating in Central Tauranga/Greerton, compared with 6% of trips originating in Pyes Pa/Tauriko. Investment objective 1 focuses on cycling to work trips only (given data collection constraints), but it is expected that the total mode shift will be greater given secondary benefits are predicted to accrue, namely an increase peak mode share of cycling to education trips. The target of nearly tripling mode share is considered ambitious, but realistic for 2043. While Tauranga is moving from a relatively low base level of cycling, tripling cycling activity over 25 years is considered feasible given the cycling programme will be supported by a wider behaviour change programme27 (non-infrastructure based), together with a range of UFTI initiatives aimed at managing wider urban form and transport system challenges. The second investment objective relates to the increases in walking and cycling forecast by the Tauranga Cycle model back to the existing walk/cycle per capita data from the Household Travel Survey. The focus on active travel aligns with anticipated health benefits and improved transport choices to enable better access to schools and places of employment. Whilst the target is considered ambitious, it is considered feasible, particularly given secondary benefits that are likely to accrue in terms of increased cycle to school mode share. Investment objective 3 seeks to achieve a reduction in annual walking and cycling DSIs, whilst also seeking to increase the walking and cycling mode share over the same timeframe. This objective is consistent with recent NZTA research report28 which concluded cyclist crash rates can fall as cyclist numbers increase. Examples cited in the report included Hastings, where crash rates fell to about one-third of what they were two years prior, despite an approximately 20% increase in cycling after a network of cycleways was built. This is largely thought to be attributable to a “safety in numbers” effect, where the risk to each pedestrians and cyclists decreases as the total number of pedestrian or cyclists increases. 25 Tauranga Transport Hybrid Model was developed in 2018 by Flow Transportation, and is the parent model to the Tauranga Cycle Model (which was used to inform this PBC) 26 NZTA, Travel Demand Management in Tauranga – Nexus, 2019 27 Refer Part B – alternatives and options section for examples of activities delivered under wider programme 28 NZTA Research Report 289, https://www.nzta.govt.nz/resources/research/reports/289/ Page | 19
Tauranga cycling network programme Part B – Developing the Programme Cycling network options Several walking and cycling business cases recently endorsed by the Transport Agency29 have demonstrated that using a wide range of supply, demand, and productivity tools are necessary when developing an effective programme to increase cycling uptake and improving cycle safety. The tools used would typically include network infrastructure improvements together with other initiatives such as behaviour change, promotion, education, speed, and compliance. Initiatives such as the Tauranga Transport Strategy, the Tauranga Cycle Plan, and more recently UFTI have provided the strategic framework under which Tauranga City Council has commenced a broad programme of change to enhance the uptake cycling and improve travel choice. In recent years, this programme has included: • Bike to school initiatives and support for school training programmes to encourage more children to cycle and walk to school • Encouraging and supporting schools to provide bike and scooter facilities such as parking spaces and school cycle tracks • Working with businesses to develop travel plans that consider multi-modal options such as walking and cycling along with other alternatives such as public transport • Providing biking facilities in the shopping areas such as the central business district, Mount Maunganui and other suburban areas to enable safe and secure bike parking • Providing safe and secure bike parking facilities in Council owned car parking buildings • Provision of shower and change facilities, along with e-bike charging points for people biking to work in the Harrington St Carpark building design • A network of off-road walking and cycling connections/pathways has been developed through Council’s reserve and parks management programme • Inclusion of cycling facilities as part of Council’s low cost, low risk improvement programme The Tauranga cycling network is intended to support this programme of change by identifying complementary improvements to the transport network, to enhance the uptake of walking and cycling as an attractive and safe mode of choice. Cycling network option development overview Cycling network options (i.e. programme options) were developed using the Tauranga Cycle Model (TCM)30, which is based upon the same methodology used to develop cycling models for Christchurch and Auckland. The model was used to identify broad areas where there is high potential demand for cycle trips, namely for 29 Examples include 2016 Wellington Cycle Network Programme Business Case and 2018 Auckland Transport Cycling Programme Business Case 30 Details regarding the development and refinement of the TCM are provided in the following report: Cycle Demand Assessment and Economic Evaluation, Flow Transportation Specialists, April 2020. This report is available in Appendix A. Page | 20
Tauranga cycling network programme the purposes of accessing employment or education hubs, and how these areas might connect if appropriate cycle infrastructure was to be provided. In assessing demand potential, the model considers: 1. Changes in land use: the model is informed by forecast land use changes (via links to Council’s current forecast strategic traffic model and the Tauranga Transport Strategic Model31). This means that forecast increases in population, employment or education result in increased future cycle trips within the model. 2. Changes in cycle infrastructure: Where improvements to existing cycle infrastructure are proposed, the model responds with increased forecast cycle trips. 3. Changes in cycle distance: Where a significant new cycle link is proposed that reduces the cycling distance between an origin-destination pair, such as a new bridge across an estuary, the model responds with increased forecast cycle trips between that origin-destination pair. The principal method by which the model is able to forecast an increase in cycle trips, and the main “lever” the Tauranga Cycle Programme pulls, is the changes to cycle infrastructure. This change is represented within the model by assigning a “Relative Attractiveness” index (RA) to each street, cycleway, and shared path in the model (based on 15 different levels). Where improved cycle infrastructure is proposed on a given street, the RA score for that street is increased within the model, in turn resulting in an increase in cycle trips between origin-destination pairs that benefit from that investment. Drawing heavily on the strategic demand assessment, five high-level cycle programme options were developed to connect key origins and destinations relating to employment and education hubs (refer Table 3 below). The options are based on different networks and the quality of those networks, rather than identifying different routes and corridors. The TCM was then used to assess the effectiveness of network options in facilitating mode share change, and to refine the network options (as required). This methodology is consistent with the approach taken to develop the Auckland and Christchurch cycling programmes, both of which have been endorsed by the NZ Transport Agency. Table 3: Cycling network options for Tauranga Cycling network Summary options 1. Business as No significant changes made to extending the existing Tauranga cycle network. New Usual /Do greenfield development and the urbanisation of existing rural roads within minimum development areas will enable development of new on-road and off-road cycling facilities. These improvements would be delivered by developers and would increase the length of the current cycling network where cycling is required (as per the Council’s Infrastructure Development Code). 2. Painted Cycle Developing a cycle network based on painted cycle lanes. The network is based on Lanes providing painted cycle lanes on existing arterial and collector roads. This programme would enable an additional 108km32 of on-road painted cycle lanes. Most of the improvements are concentrated within Papamoa, Bayfair and Otumoetai, where 31 The Tauranga Transport Strategic Model is the parent model to the TCM. As noted in section 3.2 of the Flow Report (Tauranga Cycle Programme – Cycle Demand Assessment June 2019), the Tauranga Transport Hybrid Model was under development by Beca and at the time of writing, only base model (2018) outputs from this parent model were available. 32 The modelling report produced by Flow (Tauranga Cycle Programme – Cycle Demand Assessment June 2019) indicates Option 2 would enable an additional 103km of painted on-road cycle lanes. This figure was subsequently increased to 108km as a result of minor refinements to the model. Page | 21
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