SUSTAINABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES? CONFLICTING TARGETS AND MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS - JUSER
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Forschungszentrum Jülich / Sascha Kreklau Sustainable energy technologies? Conflicting targets and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Christina Wulf∣ 1 st of July 2022 Institute of Energy and Climate Research: Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (IEK -STE)
Introducing myself ◼ Postdoc at the Institute of Energy and Climate Research – Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (IEK-STE) ◼ Research fields: − Life Cycle (Sustainability) Assessment − Multi-Criteria Decision-Analysis − Specialized in hydrogen energy systems ◼ Background − PhD in Energy and Environmental Engineering from the Hamburg University of Technology Christina Wulf| Seminario CIMAV Slide 2 Jülich, 1st of July 2022
Agenda 1 Introduction Forschungszentrum Jülich and IEK-STE 2 Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis 3 Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment and the Sustainable Development Goals 4 Case study 5 Results 6 Conclusions Christina Wulf| Seminario CIMAV Slide 3 Jülich, 1st of July 2022
Jülich - Chihuahua 9000 km Christina Wulf| Seminario CIMAV Slide 4 Jülich, 1st of July 2022
At first glance Around 6800 employees Christina Wulf| Seminario CIMAV Slide 5 Jülich, 1st of July 2022
Page 6 04.07.2022 At first glance Research priorities: information, energy, bioeconomy Christina Wulf| Seminario CIMAV Slide 6 Jülich, 1st of July 2022
Page 7 04.07.2022 We love research WE 2650 scientists Christina Wulf| Seminario CIMAV Slide 7 Jülich, 1st of July 2022
Page 8 04.07.2022 We love research WE 1500 people in technical and laboratory professions Christina Wulf| Seminario CIMAV Slide 8 Jülich, 1st of July 2022
Page 9 04.07.2022 We love research WE 850 colleagues in the field of administration Christina Wulf| Seminario CIMAV Slide 9 Jülich, 1st of July 2022
Page 10 04.07.2022 We work Hand in Hand WE International: 670 visiting scientists from 62 countries and 312 postdocs, 45 % of them from abroad 1100 doctoral researchers, 44 % of them from abroad Christina Wulf| Seminario CIMAV Slide 10 Jülich, 1st of July 2022
Page 11 04.07.2022 We work Hand in Hand WE Interdisciplinary: physics, computer science, biology, medicine, chemistry, engineering, neuroscience, mathematics, geology, social sciences (…) Christina Wulf| Seminario CIMAV Slide 11 Jülich, 1st of July 2022
Institute of Energy and Climate Research System analysis and technology evaluation (IEK-STE) Energy system Energy systems and the Energy technologies and Socio-technical system Energy infrastructures land-water-energy nexus life cycles Christina Wulf| Seminario CIMAV Slide 12 Jülich, 1st of July 2022
Interdisciplinary team at IEK-STE Background ▪ Physicists ▪ Engineers ▪ Economists ▪ Social scientists ▪ Political scientists Christina Wulf| Seminario CIMAV Slide 13 Jülich, 1st of July 2022 00. Monat 2017 Seite 13
Personnel composition at IEK-STE Composition ▪ Ca. 40 employees ▪ Ca. 38% women ▪ Researchers: Senior scientists, Post- docs, PhDs, Master students, interns ▪ Diverse nationalities (China, Germany, Italy, Morocco, Paraguay, United Kingdom, Pakistan, USA) Christina Wulf| Seminario CIMAV Slide 14 Jülich, 1st of July 2022 00. Monat 2017 Seite 14
Method and Models Christina Wulf| Seminario CIMAV Slide 15 Jülich, 1st of July 2022 00. Monat 2017 Seite 15
Technology assessment as part of system assessment Sustainability Social Economy Environment Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment Benitez, A., Wulf, C., de Palmenaer, A., Lengersdorf, M., Röding, T., Grube, T., Robinius, M., Stolten, D., Kuckshinrichs, W., 2021. Ecological assessment of fuel cell electric vehicles with special focus on type IV carbon fiber hydrogen tank. Journal of Cleaner Production 278, 123277. Christina Wulf| Seminario CIMAV Slide 16 Jülich, 1st of July 2022
Conflicting targets in sustainability assessment ◼ Construction of LNG terminals in Germany − Diversification of energy supply → security of energy supply − Causes local environmental damage − High investment costs ◼ Electricity generation from wind power − Low greenhouse gas emissions Source: Marco Sabadin/AFP − Local source of energy − Disturbance of residence through moving shadows and noise − Impact on birds and bats − Higher demand of metal resources Christina Wulf| Seminario CIMAV Slide 17 Jülich, 1st of July 2022
Comparing assessment ◼ Multi-Criteria Decision-Analysis (MCDA) − Guidance to find compromise in case of conflicting targets − Mathematical methods for the assessment of alternatives (products, technologies, strategies etc.) − Aggregation of single criteria to make a recommendation ◼ Simplest form: Weighted sum ◼ = σ =1 ∗ − wi: weighting factor of criterion i − ai: result of criterion i − ASus: Sustainability index Christina Wulf| Seminario CIMAV Slide 18 Jülich, 1st of July 2022
MCDA approach Goal and problem defintion Based on Haase, M., Baumann, M., Wulf, C., Rösch, C., Zapp, P., 2021. Selection of alternatives Technikfolgenabschätzung, Nomos, Baden-Baden, pp. 306-320. Multikriterielle Analysen zur Entscheidungsunterstützung in der Iterative process Identification of criteria Methods for analysis Stakeholder Selection of MCDA method • Literature research • Life Cycle Assessment Aggregation/quantification of • Interviews Weighting of criteria criteria by different methods • Survey • Techno-economic Results models • Recommendations • Optimizations • Ranking of alternatives • … • Analysis of the decision process • Sensitivity analysis Christina Wulf| Seminario CIMAV Slide 19 Jülich, 1st of July 2022
Selection of MCDA method ◼ Weighted sum − Indicator compensation − Easy to perform, comprehensible for outsiders − Additional normalization step is necessary ◼ TOPSIS - Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution − Toned down compensation of indicators − More complex, but still illustrative − Problem: Rank reversal ◼ PROMETHEE - Preference Ranking Organisation Method for Source: www.mcda.it Enrichment Evaluation − Outranking − Complex, results hard to understand for outsiders − Robust results Christina Wulf| Seminario CIMAV Slide 20 Jülich, 1st of July 2022
Weighting of criteria ◼ Equal weighting − Every criteria is equally important − Within a hierarchy: Each cluster/group is equally important, within each cluster all criteria are equally important ◼ Stakeholder integration − Survey among experts/users/neighbours/decision makers − Different methods for the elicitation of weighting factors ▪ AHP: Analytical Hierarchy Process ▪ SMART: Simple Multi Attribute Rating Technique ▪… − Methods have different degree of complexity: Selection depends on number of criteria and time/money for the survey Christina Wulf| Seminario CIMAV Slide 21 Jülich, 1st of July 2022
Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment Social Economy Environment Benitez, A., Wulf, C., de Palmenaer, A., Lengersdorf, M., Röding, T., Grube, T., Robinius, M., Stolten, D., Kuckshinrichs, W., 2021. Ecological assessment of fuel cell electric vehicles with special focus on type IV carbon fiber hydrogen tank. Journal of Cleaner Production 278, 123277. Christina Wulf| Seminario CIMAV Slide 22 Jülich, 1st of July 2022
Approach Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment Indicator SDGs Selection LCA S-LCA LCC Weighting Thresholds PROMETHEE Factors Christina Wulf| Seminario CIMAV Slide 23 Jülich, 1st of July 2022 IEK-STE
LCSA indicator selection based on SDGs Fair salary Levelized cost of hydrogen Abiotic resource depletion Unemployment Human toxicity, cancer + non-cancer Ionizing radiation Assoc. + barg. rights Ozone depletion Child labour, total Particulate matter Fair salary Climate change Photochemical ozone creation Goods produced by forced labour Health expenditure Frequency of forced labour Safety measures Social security expenditures Sanitation coverage Trade unionism Social security expenditures Trafficking in persons Ecotoxcity, fw. Violations of employment laws Eutrophication, fw Illiteracy, total Weekly hours of work per employee Eutrophication, marine Youth illiteracy, total Net present value Profitability index Acidification Marginal cost Women in the sectoral labour force Eutrophication, terrestrial Gender wage gap Assoc. + barg. rights Indigenous rights Trade unionism Drinking water coverage Violations of employment laws Sanitation coverage and regulations Christina Wulf| Seminario CIMAV Slide 24 Jülich, 1st of July 2022
Case study Comparison of hydrogen production with an alkaline water electrolyzer in three different countries ◼ Industrial hydrogen production by alkaline water electrolysis ◼ Comparison of Germany, Spain and Austria as production sites → different structures of electricity generation ◼ Same electrolyzer for all sites ◼ 1 kg hydrogen as functional unit Source: FZJ ◼ Main inputs electricity and water Christina Wulf| Seminario CIMAV Slide 25 Jülich, 1st of July 2022
Results case study Environment 60 Environmental impact per kg H2 50 40 30 20 10 0 A mMole CC kg ET f EP f 10 EP m g N- EP t 10 HT c HT c 100 IR 100 Bq OD ng PM 100 POF g RD 10 mg PED 10 Water m³ H+ eq. CO2-eq CTUe mg P eq eq mMole N nCTUh nCTUh U235 eq CFC-11 mg NMVOC Sb-eq kJ world eq. eq. eq PM2.5-Eq Germany Austria Spain Wulf, C., J. Werker, P. Zapp, A. Schreiber, H. Schlör, and W. Kuckshinrichs. 2018. Sustainable Development Goals as a Guideline for Indicator Selection in Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment. Procedia CIRP 69: 59-65. Christina Wulf| Seminario CIMAV Slide 26 Jülich, 1st of July 2022
Results case study Social 40 med. risk hours per kg H2 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Germany Austria Spain Werker, J., Wulf, C., Zapp, P., 2019. Working conditions in hydrogen production: A social life cycle assessment. Journal of Industrial Ecology 23(5), 1052-1061. Christina Wulf| Seminario CIMAV Slide 27 Jülich, 1st of July 2022
Results case study Economy Germany Austria Spain 10 0 Economic impact per kg H2 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 Levelized cost of hydrogen Net present value Profitability index Marginal cost €2015/kg H2 m€2015/kg H2 €2015/kg H2 Kuckshinrichs, W., T. Ketelaer, and J. C. Koj. 2017. Economic Analysis of Improved Alkaline Water Electrolysis. Frontiers in Energy Research 5(1). Christina Wulf| Seminario CIMAV Slide 28 Jülich, 1st of July 2022
PROMETHEE Results SDG Weighting Dimension Weighting 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 Outranking flow Φ Outranking flow Φ 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0 0 DE AT ES DE AT ES -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 Φ+ Φ- Φnet Φ+ Φ- Φnet Wulf, C., Zapp, P., Schreiber, A., Kuckshinrichs, W., 2022. Integrated Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment: Hydrogen Production as a Showcase for an Emerging Methodology, in: Klos, Z.S., Kalkowska, J., Kasprzak, J. (Eds.), Towards a Sustainable Future - Life Cycle Management: Challenges and Prospects. Springer International Publishing, Cham, pp. 97-106. Christina Wulf| Seminario CIMAV Slide 29 Jülich, 1st of July 2022
Conclusions ◼ Sustainability strongly depends on the viewpoint and the integrated stakeholders ◼ MCDA methods help to guide and quantify through an assessment process with conflicting targets and multiple stakeholders ◼ Example illustrates: Classification according to SDGs results different recommendation than classification according to sustainability dimensions ◼ Limitations to SDG approach: SDGs do not cover corruption and stakeholder group consumers Christina Wulf| Seminario CIMAV Slide 30 Jülich, 1st of July 2022
Forschungszentrum Jülich / Sascha Kreklau Questions? Christina Wulf∣ c.wulf@fz-juelich.de Institute of Energy and Climate Research: Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (IEK -STE)
Backup Christina Wulf| Seminario CIMAV Slide 32 Jülich, 1st of July 2022
PROMETHEE ◼ Outranking verschiedener Optionen - kein vollständiger Ausgleich zwischen den Indikatoren ◼ Instrument zur Unterstützung der Entscheidungsfindung durch Aufdeckung der Konflikte und Synergien des Problems 1 ◼ Lineare Präferenz mit Indifferenzschwelle für die Präferenzfunktion ◼ Indifferenzschwelle q = 5 % von xmin ◼ Präferenzschwelle p = 10 % von xmin 0 Wulf, C., Werker, J., Zapp, P., Schreiber, A., and Kuckshinrichs, W. (2018). "Application of multi-criteria decision-analysis methods for Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment of hydrogen production", in: International Sustainable Production and Consumption Conference. (Manchester). Christina Wulf| Seminario CIMAV Slide 33 Jülich, 1st of July 2022
PROMETHEE II ◼ Aufsummieren aller Einzelvergleiche , = ∗ , =1 ◼ Gewichtung kann hinzugefügt werden DE AT ES DE 0 0 0,66 AT 0,66 0 1 ES 0,33 0 0 Christina Wulf| Seminario CIMAV Slide 34 Jülich, 1st of July 2022
PROMETHEE II ◼ Aufsummieren aller Einzelvergleiche , = ∗ , =1 ◼ Gewichtung kann hinzugefügt werden ◼ Berechnung der Aus- und Eingangsflüsse Φ+ und Φ- 1 1 Φ + = , Φ − = , DE AT ES Φ+ − 1 =1 − 1 =1 DE 0 0 0,66 0,33 AT 0,66 0 1 0,83 ES 0,33 0 0 0,17 1.0 Φ- 0,50 0 0,83 0.0 DE AT ES -1.0 Phi + Phi - Phi netto Christina Wulf| Seminario CIMAV Slide 35 Jülich, 1st of July 2022
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