Sunday 31 May 2020 To advertise contact: Tel: 44557 857 or email
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02 BUSINESS SUNDAY 31 MAY 2020 Real Gross Domestic Product EM Asia is set for a gradual (%, year on year) economic recovery The novel coronavirus and the timing of the virus about the impact of COVID-19 economic recovery of EM Asia (COVID-19) outbreak spread expansion. Infections in China, on GDP in Q2, but the “opening will be rather gradual and slow rapidly around the world. Gov- South Korea, Thailand, up” of the EM Asian economies over the second half of the year. ernments have responded with Malaysia, Singapore (initial will provide insights of the speed First, several restrictions containment and mitigation wave) and Vietnam happened of recovery. This is particularly towards public gatherings, work, policies, including testing, iso- relatively early, whereas sig- obvious in countries that are social distancing, traffic and other lation of infected patients and nificant outbreaks took only comfortably on the other side of activities are expected to remain comprehensive social dis- place weeks later in Indonesia the peak with regards to new partially in place. Therefore, a full tancing measures. infections (China, South Korea, return to pre- COVID-19 nor- However, the spread of the Vietnam, Thailand and mality seems unlikely. This will outbreak affected the behaviour QNB ECONOMIC Malaysia), potentially setting up naturally limit output capacity, of both households and corpo- COMMENTARY for a quick rebound. But placing a cap on the recovery rates, causing a deep downturn. optimism should be measured. over the next few months. This analysis delves into the and the Philippines. Moreover, Moving away from more Second, irrespectively of expansive fiscal stance. While containing potential new waves recent experiences of selected South Korea and Vietnam were strict forms of social distancing government mandated local central banks have of virus spread. Crucial parts of economies of East and Southeast able to identify root causes of bears the risk of a “second measures, individuals and lowered rates by a minimum the progress made by countries Asia (EM Asia), including China, virus spread early on and wave” of infections which private institutions are likely to of 50 to up to 125 basis points such as China, Korea, Vietnam South Korea, Indonesia, therefore experienced less would require the return of become more risk averse when and fiscal authorities launched and initially Singapore were Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, drastic containment policies strong mitigation policies. The it comes to both financial and spending packages ranging related to testing and tracing Philippines and Vietnam. (massive testing, isolation of case of Singapore provides an health issues. As a result, their from 2 percent to 17 percent of capabilities. Without a robust Gross domestic product infected patients and only important cautionary tale. After marginal propensity to save their respective GDP, it will containment strategy, countries (GDP) data for Q1 2020 in EM regionally targeted compre- a success in initially controlling rather than to spend or invest most likely take several months would not be able to maintain a Asia came out weak, ranging hensive social distancing). The the epidemic and in providing should increase, dampening for the stimulus to generate a flat curve of new cases for long. from 3.8 percent to -6.8 magnitude of the initial spread the required health infra- consumption and investment. significant pick up in con- In brief, existing challenges percent year-on-year (y-o-y) required China and Thailand structure, the country faced a Third, policy support to sumption and investment. will likely place a cap on the from 1 percent to 7 percent to launch more comprehensive significant second wave of boost growth will take time to Fourth, not all countries ongoing economic recovery of y-o-y in the previous quarter. and broad mitigation policies, cases after a period of permeate through the have a robust healthcare infra- EM Asia. Expected rebounds are The difference in performance including large-scale, strict normalization. economy. This is valid for the structure in place to ramp up set to be rather gradual and is explained by both the mag- social distancing measures. All in all, we believe that monetary policy accommo- capacity and put together the will, vary markedly from nitude of the epidemic spread There is still uncertainty four reasons explain why the dation as well as for the more necessary capabilities for country to country. Britain to launch EU to revamp steel-import Investments in Singapore controls as economy recovers exceed annual big stimulus BLOOMBERG target in 4 months package before The European Union plans to revamp its steel-import restric- tions to guard against major market distortions as the bloc’s BLOOMBERG Singapore secured S$13bn ($9.2bn) in investment commit- summer: Report economy recovers from the effects of the pandemic. The proposed changes apply ments in the first four months of the year, exceeding earlier targets for the full year, even as the city- to EU import curbs introduced state tackled the COVID-19 pan- REUTERS — LONDON two years ago to prevent a con- demic, Trade and Industry Min- troversial 25 percent US levy on ister Chan Chun Sing (pictured) Britain’s government is foreign steel from diverting said in a media briefing and planning to launch a big global shipments to the European Facebook post yesterday. stimulus package before the market and flooding it. The amount exceeded initial summer with a focus on cre- The European “safeguard” targets of S$8bn to S$10bn for the ating jobs and infrastructure measures involve a 25 percent whole year, said Chan, and came projects to help drag the tariff on EU imports of 26 types from sectors such as electronics economy out of the corona- of steel ranging from stainless and info-communications. virus crisis, the Financial hot-rolled and cold-rolled sheets Singapore-based companies Times reported, yesterday. to rebars and railway material including Micron Technologies Finance minister Rishi when the shipments exceed a Inc, Lazada Group and Shopee Sunak (pictured) declined on three-year average. The planned are continuing to hire, Chan said, Friday to say whether he overhaul stops short of quota cuts A file photo of steel rolls stacked in an inventory of a steel factory even as a slide in retail and would bring forward his next demanded by European in Germany. tourism demand has led to job budget statement, due in the producers. losses and an overall rise in autumn, to spell out how he “It is fundamental that the surge in shipments to Europe as global TRQ for hot-rolled flat unemployment. will tackle Britain’s surging have to gradually start con- gradual resumption of activity national lockdowns are eased. products with the default system The government will con- debt. tributing to the government’s and return to normality take “The proposed adjustments of combined country-specific tinue with measures to support But Prime Minister Boris hugely expensive wage place in an orderly manner, in should deter any undue stock- quotas for the biggest traditional jobs and businesses through this Johnson’s government was subsidy scheme, but only such a way that all participants piling behaviour in the very early suppliers and residual quotas for period, he said, while the Straits elected in December after from August. in the EU steel market find their phases of the recovery that could the rest. Introduction of a global Times cited him as saying a promising to upgrade the The government has been traditional place,” the Brussels- empty the market in an oppor- TRQ for stainless steel hot-rolled decision would be made next country’s creaking infra- paying since March 80 based European Commission, the tunistic manner,” the com- sheets and strips. Split of a TRQ week on whether to hold the Sin- structure and the FT said this percent of the wages of bloc’s executive arm, said in a mission said. “These opportun- for large welded tubes into two gapore Grand Prix motor race in would form a central part of workers who are temporarily notice published on Friday istic practices not only seriously sub-TRQs -- one for tubes nor- September. its recovery programme, laid off, and who now total evening. The changes are due to endanger the obligation to pre- mally used in large engineering along with the retraining of 8.4 million, to limit a surge in take effect on July 1. serve traditional trade flows in projects and the second for workers. unemployment. The coronavirus sent the terms of origins, but also risk product types not used in such “We are trying to identify While that has been European economy into a tailspin unduly displacing domestic projects. shovel-ready projects - we warmly welcomed by unions shortly after the commission in production.” Establishment for countries want to get a move on with and business groups there February began a routine review Some of the main planned that have exhausted their spe- this,” it quoted one minister are still fears that many jobs of the EU steel-import limits. changes to the EU’s management cific quotas of three regimes for as saying. will go in sectors which will Slumps in the region’s con- of the import limits, which are accessing residual quotas (to Sunak said on Friday that struggle to reopen, such as sumption and production of the known as tariff-rate quotas, or replace the default scenario of employers hammered by the hospitality, retail and metal sparked concerns about TRQs include: Move to quarterly access in the last quarter of a coronavirus shutdown would aviation. stockpiling in exporting countries management of all country-spe- period): prohibition, limited and such as China and a possible cific quotas.Replacement of a status quo. Germany reaches EU deal on €9bn Lufthansa bailout BLOOMBERG balance, Germany on Monday advantage of the slots. country doesn’t give its com- offered the carrier a package of For the first 18 months, for panies an unfair advantage. The German government worked loans and equity investment to example, the capacity is reserved The bloc’s regulators will out its differences with the keep it aloft. But after the EU for new competitors in Frankfurt assess the German aid package European Commission over a demanded it give up slots, the air- and Munich. With the global “as a matter of priority,” the EU €9bn ($9.9bn) bailout of line’s supervisory board unex- airline industry in retreat, the said yesterday. Deutsche Lufthansa AG, clearing pectedly held off on accepting likelihood of a fresh entrant may Discount operators are the the way for the rescue of Europe’s this lifeline -- throwing the rescue be limited. most likely to show interest in the biggest airline to move forward. plan into turmoil after weeks of The EU is comfortable with new capacity, Strickland said. If After intense talks, the com- talks. Ultimately, the EU pared the deal, having overshot in its the slots had become available mission and the German gov- back some of its demands. initial demands in anticipation of before the coronavirus, Lufthansa ernment agreed that Lufthansa “There will be worries for a compromise, according to a “would have been concerned will reduce its presence at air- Lufthansa about other airlines person familiar with the matter. about long-haul rivals, but that’s ports in Frankfurt and Munich by moving in, but the slot rules It’s not certain the remedy will be really gone now with markets so four aircraft each. The accord, would seem to limit the threat,” taken up, but regulators didn’t weak.” which the airline’s management said John Strickland, director of have time to test the interest, the Of the two main European said it would accept, would give JLS Consulting in London, who person said, asking not to be discounters, Dublin-based a toehold to new competitors has held senior positions at identified on a confidential Ryanair already has slots at hoping to challenge the dominant British Airways and KLM. matter. The commitments will Frankfurt’s main airport. UK- German carrier on its home turf. The EU conditions kick in “enable a viable entry or based Easyjet Plc has a presence The compromise settles a when airports become congested expansion of activities by other in Munich. At least initially, each high-stakes showdown that again, at which point Lufthansa airlines at these airports to the would be unable to use the new played out over the past week, will have to surrender as many benefit of consumers and capacity in the location where it’s pitting the European Union’s as 24 takeoff-and-landing slots effective competition,” the EU already planted a flag. most powerful member state at Munich and the same at said in an emailed statement. Another growing low-cost against the regulator tasked with Frankfurt, enough for a com- Talks with the EU over other carrier, Wizz Air Holdings Plc, ensuring fairness in the bailout petitor to base four planes at both aspects of the deal will continue, recently pulled out of process. The economic damage airports, each making three daily a spokeswoman for Germany’s Frankfurt. In an interview, of the coronavirus crisis has round-trips. There are significant economy ministry said. Chief Executive Officer Jozsef unleashed an unprecedented catches, however, that suggest The agreement would then Varadi called the bailout gusher of state aid, led by Ger- the strongest potential benefici- require approval of Lufthansa’s “market distorting,” and said many’s €600bn ($666bn) effort aries, such as Ryanair Holdings supervisory board, followed by the slots don’t come close to to shore up its economy. Plc, a loud critic of the Lufthansa a formal signoff by the EU, which balancing out the amount of With Lufthansa’s future in the aid, won’t be able to fully take polices state aid to ensure one aid Lufthansa is getting.
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