SOUTH AFRICA EDUCATION BUDGET - SOUTH AFRICA - UNICEF

 
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SOUTH AFRICA EDUCATION BUDGET - SOUTH AFRICA - UNICEF
South Africa
© UNICEF South Africa

                        Education BUDGET
                            SOUTH AFRICA
                                2017/2018
                                                   1
SOUTH AFRICA EDUCATION BUDGET - SOUTH AFRICA - UNICEF
17%
    Budget for school children
    remains at 17% of total

                                                                      © UNICEF/L Marinovich
    government expenditure

Preface
This budget brief is one of four that explore the extent to which                             Composition of spending: The higher education and
the national budget and social services sector budgets address                                training vote is projected to grow by 3 per cent on average
the needs of children under 18 years in South Africa. The briefs                              in real terms over the present Medium-Term Expenditure
analyse the size and composition of budget allocations for the                                Framework (MTEF). This far outpaces corresponding growth
fiscal year 2017/18, as well as offer insights into the efficiency,                           in the consolidated basic education budget. The government is
effectiveness, equity and adequacy of past spending. Their main                               thus encouraged to:
objectives are to synthesise complex budget information so                                    1. Ensure that children benefit from increased higher education
that it is easily understood by stakeholders, and to present key                                  spending by increasing the number of Mathematics, Science
messages to inform financial decision-making processes.                                           and English teachers to be trained at tertiary institutions;
                                                                                              2.	Convince the national and provincial decision makers that real

Key Messages and
                                                                                                  cuts to expenditures in school education should not be an
                                                                                                  option.

Recommendations                                                                               Decentralisation and the equity of spending: Per-pupil
                                                                                              spending in the poorest provinces remains a concern. The
                                                                                              government is encouraged to:
Overall spending trends: Spending on the combined                                            1. Reform the provincial education allocation formula so that it
national and provincial basic education (or consolidated basic                                   explicitly considers the poverty of learners, given the high
education) budget for school children remains at 17 per cent                                     costs of educating poor learners;
of total government expenditure, but there are concerns about                                 2. Build understanding among stakeholders that changes in
the lack of growth in education expenditures over the medium                                     national allocation formulae do not automatically translate into
term. The government is encouraged to:                                                           better funding for basic education services.
1. Protect spending on priority programmes such as early
    childhood education, the national school nutrition programme,                             Financing the education sector: There is growing
    the no-fee school allocation, support for public special                                  evidence that the government is making progress to tackle
    school education, and infrastructure spending in the most                                 financial barriers to poor children’s education. Nonetheless, the
    disadvantaged areas;                                                                      government is encouraged to:
2. Keep key stakeholders informed about plans and actions to                                  1.	Investigate whether the present per-pupil allocation (inclusive
    spend existing resources in the most effective manner.                                       of personnel), especially for poor learners and schools, is
                                                                                                 ‘adequate’ to improve the quality of education;
                                                                                              2. Support more in-depth research to better understand variable
                                                                                                 academic outcomes among similarly poor schools.

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SOUTH AFRICA EDUCATION BUDGET - SOUTH AFRICA - UNICEF
Section
    1.
    Introduction

The responsibility for providing and delivering education                  © UNICEF South Africa   quantitative goals for the schooling sector and the DBE’s
services is shared between the national and provincial                                             own strategic plan, namely Action Plan to 2019: Towards
government. The schooling system (public and private) caters                                       the Realisation of Schooling 2030.3 The latter document
for children between the ages of 5 and 17 years,1 which includes                                   contains the actual learning outcomes to be achieved and the
a Reception Year (prior to Grade 1) and a final formal schooling                                   processes for achieving these goals. Some of the key goals to be
year (Grade 12). The Department of Basic Education (DBE) is the                                    realised by 2030 include:
national department responsible for policy-making and coordination                                 • Ensure universal access to one phase of Early Childhood
for the schooling sector, while nine provincial education                                             Development (ECD), namely Grade R (Reception Year prior to
departments finance and implement national policy for this sector.                                    Grade 1);
The Department of Higher Education and Training (DHET) provides                                    • Ninety per cent of children in Grades 3, 6 and 9 achieve 50
post-schooling opportunities at the tertiary level (universities), adult                              per cent or more in Annual National Assessments;
education programmes, and technical and vocational qualifications                                  • Improve South Africa’s ranking in international comparative
that straddle the schooling and post-schooling levels.                                                standardised tests by providing performance benchmarks;
                                                                                                   • Eradicate all infrastructure backlogs by 2030;
The two central documents that guide the development                                               • Ensure that all schools are funded at least at the minimum
and implementation of basic education policy are the                                                  per-learner levels determined nationally, and that funds are
National Development Plan 2030 (NDP), 2 which sets                                                    utilised transparently and effectively.

Table 1: Key indicators on the health of the education system, 2014–20164

Pupil-teacher ratio, 2016                                                                                                                                    32.5

 Gender parity index (primary and secondary school attendance), 2014                                                                                          1.0

 Average performance in Grade 9 Mathematics in TIMMS at the low performance benchmark level (set at 400–475
                                                                                                                                                              372
 points), 2015
 Average performance in Grade 9 Science in TIMMS at the low performance benchmark level (set at 400–475
                                                                                                                                                              358
 points), 2015

 Percentage of learners who benefit from the no-fee school funding policy, 2016                                                                            65.3%

 Percentage of schools who benefit from the no-fee school funding policy, 2016                                                                             87.5%

 Percentage of learners with access to the national school nutrition programme, 2015                                                                       80.2%

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SOUTH AFRICA EDUCATION BUDGET - SOUTH AFRICA - UNICEF
Figure 1: Basic education sector performance, 2013 to 2015 (%)

                                   % of learners attending public schools who                                                                          76.2
                                            benefited from the school nutrition                                                                        75.6
                                                                   programme                                                                          74.5

                                                                                                                                              64.6
                                    % of learners who did not pay school fees                                                                  65.4
                                                                                                                                            62.4

                                                                                               12.2
                                     % of 7–15 year olds walking to school for
                                                                                               12.0
                                                        more than 30 minutes
                                                                                                13.5

                                                                                                                              45.7
                                               % of 0–4 year olds attended ECD                                                  48.3
                                                                                                                             44.7

                                                                   Percentage 0          10      20       30     40          50        60   70        80      90

                                                                                        2015           2014           2013

                         Source: DBE 2017 and General Household Surveys 2015 and 2016

                             Takeaways:

                             • The number of learners who attend no-fee schools                          of poor children. This programme should be gradually
                               should be maintained and expanded where possible,                         extended to all poor secondary schools.
                               but this should not supersede quality considerations.                   • The DBE needs to capitalise on the existing favourable
                             • The school nutrition programme has achieved                               policy environment to promote and universalise early
                               impressive coverage and is benefiting large numbers                       childhood education.
© UNICEF/Bart de Ruigh

                         4
SOUTH AFRICA EDUCATION BUDGET - SOUTH AFRICA - UNICEF
Section
    2.
    Education

                                                                                  © UNICEF/Bart de Ruigh
    Spending Trends
Size of Spending
Table 2 shows that the national Department of Basic                                                        3 per cent of these overall resources for school education. In
Education and the nine provincial education budgets                                                        addition to the conditional grant transfers to provincial education
are projected to spend more than R230 billion on basic                                                     departments, the Department of Basic Education invests in
education in 2017/18. When transfers to provincial education                                               spending that goes directly to schools in provinces (for example,
budgets are removed from the budget of the national Department                                             the national workbooks), although the magnitude of this spending
of Basic Education, the national department consumes less than                                             is substantially smaller than the conditional grants.

Table 2: Summary of nominal national and provincial basic education budgets, 2017/18 (ZAR’000)

Department                                                                                                          National               Provincial             % of total

National Basic Education                                                                                          23,408,700                                            2.7%

National Basic Education transfer to provinces                                                                    -17,154,300

Combined provincial education budgets                                                                            223,892,357

Eastern Cape                                                                                                                              32,989,054                  14.3%

Free State                                                                                                                                12,739,378                    5.5%

Gauteng                                                                                                                                   40,843,869                  17.7%

KwaZulu-Natal                                                                                                                             47,444,706                  20.6%

Limpopo                                                                                                                                   28,783,149                  12.5%

Mpumalanga                                                                                                                                19,322,742                    8.4%

Northern Cape                                                                                                                              5,857,848                    2.5%

North West                                                                                                                                15,281,697                    6.6%

Western Cape                                                                                                                              20,629,914                    9.0%

Consolidated Basic Education Budget                                                                              230,146,757                                         100.0%
Source: Estimates of National Expenditure 2017 and Estimates of Provincial Revenue and Expenditure 2017

Consolidated basic education as a share of consolidated                                                    period, consolidated basic education expenditure constitutes
government expenditure is set to decline from 17.7 per                                                     between 4.7 and 4.9 per cent of the Gross Domestic Product
cent in 2016/17 to 16.7 per cent in 2019/20. Over the same                                                 (GDP).

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SOUTH AFRICA EDUCATION BUDGET - SOUTH AFRICA - UNICEF
Figure 2: Consolidated basic education expenditure as percentage of consolidated government expenditure5 and the
Gross Domestic Product (GDP), 2013/14 to 2019/20

                        20
                              17.8                17.7                               17.7                 17.4
                        18                                        17.1                                                   17.1           16.7
                        16
                        14
           Percentage

                        12
                        10
                         8
                         6            4.9                4.9               4.9              5.0                  4.9             4.7           4.7
                         4
                         2
                         0
                               2013/14            2014/15             2015/16          2016/17            2017/18         2018/19       2019/20
                              Outcome            Outcome             Outcome      Revised estimate         MTEF            MTEF          MTEF

                                     Basic education as a % of government expenditure

                                     Basic education as a % of GDP

Source: Estimates of National Expenditure 2017, Estimates of Provincial Revenue and Expenditure 2017 and Budget Review 2017

Spending Changes
The historically high level of spending on basic education                             budgets are projected to decline in real terms by 0.1 per cent
is declining, as can be seen in Figure 3 below. Expenditure                            on average. The aggregate trends convey an accurate sense of
on consolidated basic education budgets is not projected to grow                       the squeeze on basic education spending and allocations and
above inflation over the present medium term. Over the present                         warrant a closer examination of isolated growth areas in the basic
MTEF period (2016/17 to 2019/20), consolidated basic education                         education budget.

Figure 3: Nominal and inflation-adjusted consolidated basic education spending and allocation trends, 2013/14 to 2019/20
(ZAR billion): 2016/17=100

                        300
                                                                                                                                        258
                                                                                                                         243
                        250                                                          218    218           230
                                       209               211                215                                  217              216          217
                                                                     202
                                                  189
                        200   177
        ZAR billion

                        150

                        100

                        50

                         0
                               2013/14             2014/15            2015/16          2016/17             2017/18            2018/19    2019/20
                              Outcome             Outcome            Outcome      Revised estimate          MTEF               MTEF       MTEF

                                     Basic education (real)           Basic education (nominal)

Source: Estimates of National Expenditure 2017 and Estimates of Provincial Revenue and Expenditure 2017

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SOUTH AFRICA EDUCATION BUDGET - SOUTH AFRICA - UNICEF
Figure 4: Social service sectors as a percentage of consolidated government expenditure, 2013/14 to 2018/19

                                                          100
      Percentage of consolidated government expenditure

                                                          90

                                                          80      34.4       34.3      34.6        35.0      35.7                                       36.5            37.3

                                                          70

                                                          60      10.0       9.8        9.3        9.3       9.3                                         9.2             9.0           Other
                                                          50      11.2       11.2      12.6       10.6       10.2                                       10.1            10.1           Public order and safety
                                                          40
                                                                  13.4       13.5      13.4       14.1       13.8                                       13.6            13.4           Economic affairs
                                                          30
                                                                  13.2       13.4                 13.4       13.5                                                                      Health
                                                                                       13.0                                                             13.5            13.4
                                                          20
                                                                                                                                                                                       Social development
                                                          10
                                                                  17.8       17.7      17.1       17.7       17.4                                       17.1            16.7
                                                                                                                                                                                       Basic education
                                                           0

                                                                 2013/14    2014/15    2015/16    2016/17   2017/18                                    2018/19         2019/20
                                                                Outcome    Outcome    Outcome    Revised     MTEF                                       MTEF            MTEF
                                                                                                 estimate

Source: Estimates of National Expenditure 2017 and Estimates of Provincial Revenue and Expenditure 2017

The Priority of Basic Education in the Budget                                                               Figure 5: Consolidated basic education as a percentage of
Figure 4 shows that while the consolidated basic education                                                  GDP, 2013
share of consolidated government resources is set to
decline from 17.8 per cent in 2013/14 to 16.7 per cent by                                                                                          6
the end of the MTEF, the shares of the social development
and health functions remain stable over the period above.
                                                                                                                                                   5                                             4.9      4.9
In 2017/18 alone, the three largest social service sector votes
                                                                                                                                                                                         4.4
account for more than 44 per cent of consolidated government
                                                                                                                   Basic education as a % of GDP

expenditure. The stability of the key social services sectors                                                                                      4
enabled the government to expand provision for higher education                                                                                                           3.4    3.5
and training, especially the university sector due to the Fees Must                                                                                3
Fall campaign.                                                                                                                                                   2.7

                                                                                                                                                   2
Figure 5 demonstrates that basic education as a percentage
of GDP is high when comparing South Africa to other middle-
                                                                                                                                                   1
income countries and global averages. This demonstrates
that the government has a strong commitment to investing in
education, but that more should be done to ensure that the sector                                                                                  0
is achieving value for money, as well as equity.
                                                                                                            Source: Estimates of National Expenditure 2017, Estimates of Provincial Revenue
                                                                                                            and Expenditure 2017 and Budget Review 2017 and OECD Education Indicators6

    Takeaways:
    • Basic education commands a substantial slice of                                                       • There are no indications in the present budget or
      overall government expenditure.                                                                         in any official policy documents that the existing
    • Compared to the social development function, the                                                        spending trends are likely to change soon, which
      rate of growth of the basic education budget over the                                                   will constrain spending on children’s services in
      medium term is stagnant.                                                                                education.

7
SOUTH AFRICA EDUCATION BUDGET - SOUTH AFRICA - UNICEF
Section
    3.
    Composition of

                                                                                           © UNICEF South Africa
    Education Spending
Composition of Spending by Department
Figure 6 shows that apart from a spike in spending in                                                              at a real average annual rate of almost 4 per cent. Given the
2014/15, the budget of the Department of Basic Education                                                           large annual increases in expenditure on higher education and
was relatively flat over the six-year period and grew at                                                           training programmes, the rather low projection for this function
a real average annual rate of 1.6 per cent. Expenditure                                                            at the end of the present MTEF (2018/19) does not portray any
on consolidated provincial education achieved a much lower                                                         accurate planning assumptions, but reflects the uncertainty of the
real average annual rate of 0.9 per cent over the same period.                                                     outcome of discussions and bargaining in this sector, especially
Expenditure on the higher education and training vote increased                                                    the university sector.

Figure 6: Inflation-adjusted spending trends in education departments,7 2013/14 to 2019/20 (2016/17=100)

                                                                                                                                             8.7
       2014/15 Outcome                                    0.3
                                                                                     3.3

                                                                1.3
       2015/16 Outcome                                                         2.7
                                                                               2.7
                                    -2.2
                2016/17                                                  1.8
       Revised estimate                                                                                                      6.5

                                                                         1.8
           2017/18 MTEF                    -1.3
                                                          0.3
                                                                                                                                                        Department of Higher
                                                          0.2                                                                                           Education and Training
           2018/19 MTEF                                         1.2
                                                                                                                                       7.9
                                                                                                                                                         Consolidated
                                                         0.0                                                                                             provincial education
           2019/20 MTEF                                     0.5
                                                               0.9                                                                                       Department of
                                                                                                                                                         Basic Education
       Percentage            -4            -2        0               2               4                                 6           8               10

Source: Estimates of National Expenditure 2017 and Estimates of Provincial Revenue and Expenditure 2017
Note: Real annual percentage changes are only indicated for consolidated provincial education budgets.

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SOUTH AFRICA EDUCATION BUDGET - SOUTH AFRICA - UNICEF
© UNICEF South Africa

                        Composition of Spending by Programme: Provincial Education Budgets
                        Table 3 shows that consolidated provincial education                         by the introduction of a conditional grant to assist provinces in
                        spending is projected to grow from R213 billion in 2016/17                   expanding special needs services for children with disabilities.
                        to just more than R254 billion in 2019/20 at a real average                  Another key programme, Early Childhood Development (ECD), is
                        annual rate of 0.1 per cent. Spending on public ordinary schools,            projected to increase its spending by an average 1.5 per cent in real
                        which constitutes roughly 80 per cent of total provincial education          terms over the MTEF. In order to facilitate reductions in baseline
                        spending, is projected to grow by less than 1 per cent in real terms         spending, the education infrastructure grant was reduced, thus
                        on average over the MTEF. The largest positive real growth rate              explaining the large real dip in infrastructure allocations over the
                        is reserved for public special school education, in part facilitated         MTEF.

                        Table 3: Programme expenditure in the consolidated provincial education budget, 2013/14 to 2019/20 (ZAR’000)

                                                                                                                                         Real change      Real average
                                                                        2016/17
                                                                                                                                            between             annual
                        Programme                                       Revised 2017/18 MTEF 2018/19 MTEF             2019/20 MTEF
                                                                                                                                         2016/17 and      change over
                                                                       estimate
                                                                                                                                         2017/18 (%)         MTEF (%)

                        Public Ordinary Schools                    167,936,232         178,210,713   191,178,743         203,699,081               -0.2              0.7

                        Independent School                            1,087,702          1,175,713      1,272,801          1,341,341                1.8              0.5
                        Subsidies

                        Public Special School                         6,796,818          7,372,919      8,031,496          8,565,769                2.0              2.0
                        Education

                        Early Childhood                               3,867,873          4,179,881      4,501,606          4,794,846                1.7              2.0
                        Development

                        Infrastructure Development                   13,391,601         11,657,896     11,893,210         12,143,116              -18.1              -8.3

                        Other                                        20,260,868         21,295,235     22,519,687         23,468,918               -1.1              -0.8

                            Total                                  213,341,094         223,892,357   239,397,543        254,013,071               -1.3               0.1
                        Source: Estimates of Provincial Revenue and Expenditure 2017

                        9
SOUTH AFRICA EDUCATION BUDGET - SOUTH AFRICA - UNICEF
Composition of Spending by the Type of Expenditure: Provincial Education Budgets
Basic education is a labour-intensive sector and Figure 7                           etc.) are reflected across the ‘goods and services’ category (for
shows that compensation of employees consumes about                                 schools whose budgets are managed by provincial education
80 per cent of available provincial education resources.                            departments) and ‘transfers to NPOs’ (schools that can self-
While there are provincial variations, on average the sector is                     manage their budgets). These shares appear stable across the
doing much better compared to previous years (not represented                       period represented above. The share of expenditure on large
in the graph above), where compensation squeezed out other                          capital projects, however, is projected to decline from 5.3 per
critical expenditures. South African public schools are classified                  cent in the present financial year to 4.0 per cent in 2019/20. In
as Section 21 schools (high level of managerial autonomy)                           line with earlier observations all the chief expenditure categories
and Non-section 21 schools (school budgets managed by the                           are projected to grow by less than 1.0 per cent in real terms
provincial education department) and hence expenses for                             on average, confirming the constraints on expenditure on basic
critical school-level items (books, utilities, small maintenance                    education in the present MTEF.

Figure 7: Expenditure by type in the consolidated provincial education budgets, 2013/14 to 2019/20

                                      100
                                              4.9        4.6        5.2       5.3              4.3             4.0
                                              6.8        6.7        6.8       6.9              6.8             6.7
                                      90
                                              8.6        8.4        8.9       8.8              8.9             9.0
     Percentage of total allocation

                                      80

                                      70

                                      60

                                      50
                                                                                                                              Compensation of
                                      40     78.7       78.9       77.7      77.7              79.0           79.3            employees
                                                                                                                              Goods and services
                                      30
                                                                                                                              Transfers to NPOs
                                      20
                                                                                                                              Buildings and
                                      10                                                                                      other fixed structures
                                                                                                                              Other
                                       0
                                             2014/15    2015/16    2016/17   2017/18          2018/19        2019/20
                                            Outcome    Outcome    Revised     MTEF             MTEF           MTEF
                                                                  estimate

Source: Estimates of Provincial Revenue and Expenditure 2017

     Takeaways:
     • Spending on higher education and training                                      at the ECD and special needs programmes.
       programmes far outpaces that of corresponding                                • Children at public ordinary schools should see most
       spending in the basic education sector.                                        of their resources gains preserved (rather than
     • While the higher education and training sector does                            expanded) over the medium-term.
       not benefit children in the same way as the basic                            • The attempt to eliminate infrastructure backlogs must
       education sector, increased spending could benefit                             be supported and rigorous poverty targeting should
       children indirectly, especially if an assumption is made                       determine the priority schools that deserve immediate
       that more resources will be spent on the training of                           attention.
       school teachers.                                                             • The focus on improving the quality of learner
     • Key service delivery programmes for children at the                            performance is commendable, but the Department
       provincial level barely manage to increase spending                            of Basic Education should resist adopting a punitive
       when factoring in inflation.                                                   stance for ‘underperforming’ schools because of the
     • Very young learners and children with disabilities                             complexity of school performance in South Africa.
       should benefit from the additional spending targeted

10
Section
     4.
     Decentralisation and

                                                                                    © UNICEF South Africa
     Equity in Education
     Spending
The Provincial Equitable Shares Formula (PES)
Table 4 shows that the education component of the PES                                                       of over-age learners.8 From an equity point of view, it is generally
carries the largest weighting (48 per cent) and is made up                                                  recognised that it is more expensive to educate learners from
of two factors, namely the size of the school-age cohort                                                    socio-economically disadvantaged backgrounds, and arguments
(5–17 year-olds) and the actual school enrolment. The                                                       have been made that the education component should consider
distribution of the school-age cohort data is based on Census                                               the poverty of the different regions more explicitly and not rely
2011 data, while updated school enrolment numbers provided by                                               exclusively on demographic data. The National Treasury is
the DBE are used. The fact that the two factors are weighted                                                undertaking consultations with a view to changing the education
equally, assists poorer provinces that have a larger percentage                                             component of the provincial equitable shares.

Table 4: Distributing the equitable shares by provinces, 2017

                                                                                                                                     Economic
                                          Education              Health       Basic share                               Poverty                 Institutional       Weighted
                                                                                                                                       activity
                                              (48%)               (27%)             (16%)                                  (3%)                          (5%)        average
                                                                                                                                        (1.0%)

Eastern Cape                                    15.1%             13.5%                        12.6%                      16.3%           7.6%           11.1%          14.0%

Free State                                       5.3%               5.3%                                    5.1%           5.2%           5.0%           11.1%           5.6%

Gauteng                                         18.0%             21.8%                        24.1%                      17.3%          34.3%           11.1%          19.8%

KwaZulu-Natal                                   22.3%             21.7%                        19.8%                      22.2%          16.1%           11.1%          21.1%

Limpopo                                         13.0%             10.3%                        10.4%                      13.6%           7.1%           11.1%          11.7%

Mpumalanga                                       8.4%               7.3%                                    7.7%           9.1%           7.5%           11.1%           8.1%

Northern Cape                                    2.3%               2.1%                                    2.1%           2.2%           2.1%           11.1%           2.7%

North West                                       6.5%               6.7%                                    6.8%           8.0%           6.5%           11.1%           6.9%

Western Cape                                     9.1%             11.3%                       11.3%                        6.1%          13.6%           11.1%          10.1%

 Total                                         100%               100%                       100%                         100%           100%            100%           100%
Source: Budget Review 2017
Note: Green represents the highest value, while red represents the lowest value for each component and the total weighted share by province.

11
Box 1
     Let’s imagine how this formula works in practice. If R100 billion was available to be spent on provinces,
     then the Eastern Cape provincial government should receive 14% of R100 billion (or R14 billion). Almost
     half of this money (48%) would have been decided using the education component. That means of the
     R48 billion decided through the education component, the Eastern Cape government would have received
     15.1% of R48 billion (or R7.2 billion). For the health component, the Eastern Cape is entitled to 13.5% of the
     R27 billion (or R3.6 billion). The formula assumes that the cost of running government is the same for all
     provinces and the Eastern Cape will receive 11.1% of R11.1 billion (or R1.2 billion). The same calculation is
     done for all the components; these are tallied and the final shares will be paid over in quarterly instalments
     during the financial year.

Spending and Allocations on Provincial Education Budgets
Table 5 demonstrates that the slow overall growth                          achieve average positive gains over the MTEF. Spending and
in provincial spending is reflected across most of the                     allocations reflected in the table below are inclusive of personnel
provinces’ budgets and only the Eastern Cape (1.5 per cent                 spending, transfers to public schools, and expenditure on large
on average) and the North West (0.9 per cent on average)                   and small infrastructure projects.

Table 5: Spending and allocation trends in provincial education budgets, 2016/17 to 2018/19 (ZAR’000)

                                                                                                            Real change
                                                                                                                              Real average
                         2016/17 revised                                                                       between
                                                   2017/18 MTEF      2018/19 MTEF     2019/20 MTEF                           annual change
                               estimate                                                                     2016/17 and
                                                                                                                             over MTEF (%)
                                                                                                            2017/18 (%)

Eastern Cape                    30,291,514             32,989,054       35,097,333        37,587,452                  2.5                1.5

Free State                      12,794,331             12,739,378       13,614,009        14,586,931                 -6.3                -1.3

Gauteng                         39,590,028             40,843,869       44,378,271        46,754,956                 -2.9                -0.1

KwaZulu-Natal                   45,648,635             47,444,706       50,631,848        53,791,211                 -2.2                -0.2

Limpopo                         27,512,859             28,783,149       30,440,345        32,194,772                 -1.6                -0.5

Mpumalanga                      18,136,250             19,322,742       20,921,129        22,095,256                  0.2                0.9

Northern Cape                    5,574,233               5,857,848       6,139,973         6,496,564                 -1.1                -0.6

North West                      14,262,562             15,281,697       16,261,250        17,398,783                  0.8                0.9

Western Cape                    19,530,682             20,629,914       21,913,385        23,107,146                 -0.6                -0.1

 Total                       213,341,094             223,892,357      239,397,543       254,013,071                 -1.3                 0.1

Source: Estimates of Provincial Revenue and Expenditure 2017

Spending Disparities in Provincial Education Budgets
From an equity lens, the KwaZulu-Natal provincial education                had per-pupil spending rates that were lower than the national
department has the largest budget in absolute terms, but                   average. These are the Eastern Cape (R15,400), KwaZulu-Natal
when service delivery burdens are factored in (number of                   (R15,800) and the Limpopo province (R15,500). The Northern
learners), it ranks among the lowest per-pupil spenders.                   Cape provincial education managed to spend almost R4,000 more
Figure 8 shows that in 2016, consolidated provincial education             than the national average.
spending per pupil was approximately R16,500 and three provinces

12
Figure 8: Real per-pupil expenditure in subnational education budgets, 2016 (ZAR): 2016/17=100

                              National average                                                                                                      16,496
                                 Northern Cape                                                                                                                      19,122
                                      Free State                                                                                                                  18,587
                                 Western Cape                                                                                                             17,492
                                    North West                                                                                                           17,172
                                        Gauteng                                                                                                        17,016
                                  Mpumalanga                                                                                                           16,881
                                KwaZulu-Natal                                                                                                   15,864
                                        Limpopo                                                                                               15,583
                                  Eastern Cape                                                                                                15,443

                                                    0                        5,000                       10,000                      15,000                        20,000
                                                    Per pupil expenditure, ZAR

                     Source: Estimates of Provincial Revenue and Expenditure 2017 and EMIS data from Department of Basic Education

                     The three poor provinces spent 5 per cent less on average                          Table 6: Inequality measures summarising differences
                     on school learners in their respective provinces (Table 6).                        in per-pupil expenditure among subnational education
                     Given that these provinces have inherited massive infrastructure                   departments, 2013 to 2016: 2016/17=100
                     backlogs, their consistently below-average per-pupil spending
                                                                                                         Inequality measure10                     2013       2014          2015   2016
                     is cause for concern. Furthermore, in a comparative analysis of
                     provincial education spending on personnel by quintile, Gustafsson                  Coefficient of variation                0.074       0.075     0.067      0.075
                     (2016) 9 found that learners in the poorest quintiles in KwaZulu-                   Mean absolute deviation                 998.7       975.7     864.4      955.9
                     Natal have worse learner:educator ratios than their counterparts                    (ZAR)
                     in the richest quintiles. This is a classic example of intra-provincial             Per-pupil expenditure in                  0.97         0.96       0.95    0.95
                     inequality, which does not get the same analytical exposure as                      poor provinces as a factor
                     the extra-provincial inequalities in inputs. For the remaining six                  of the national average
                     provinces, the financing picture is one of convergence on per-pupil                Source: Estimates of Provincial Revenue and Expenditure 2017 (own calculations)
                                                                                                        Note: The Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal and Limpopo were defined as ‘poor
                     spending, although the aggregate picture may hide important                        provinces’.
                     differences at district and school level within provincial education
                     departments.
© UNICEF/Hearfield

                     13
Spending and Outcomes in Provincial Education Budgets
Schools in the poorest quintiles are exempted from                                        corresponding number for the Western Cape is 21 per cent).
paying school fees. Figure 9 compares schools in the two                                  However, there are schools in both provinces that have a large
poorest quintiles in the Eastern Cape and Western Cape on                                 percentage of their learners achieving university-endorsed
their respective university-level passes achieved in 2016. What                           passes ranging from 50 per cent to as high as 86 per cent. While
is notable, is that schools in both provinces have relatively low                         quality is still an issue for most schools, some schools perform
university-level endorsements (the median university-endorsed                             above the general expectation.
passes in the Eastern Cape are less than 10 per cent and the

Figure 9: Examining the relationship between per-pupil spending and academic outcomes (percentage university-passes
by 9schools) in two provinces in 2016 (schools in national quintiles 1 and 2)
Fig

                                      Eastern Cape                                                                           Western Cape
               80

                                                                                                       80
               60

                                                                                                       60
               40

                                                                                                       40
               20

                                                                                                       20
                0

                                                                                                       0

Source: National Senior Certificate database provided by the Department of Basic Education, 2017
Note: The line inside the box represents the median (or 50th quartile), while the lower line of the box represents the 25th quartile and the upper line of the box represents
the 75th quartile. The size of the box measures the overall range or spread of university-endorsed passes among schools in quintiles 1 and 2.

     Takeaways:
     • Per-pupil spending has become less variable, even                                    poverty of the school communities they serve.
       though concerns remain that some provincial                                        • The focus on improving the quality of learner
       education departments continue to spend                                              performance is commendable, but the Department
       considerably below the national average.                                             of Basic Education should resist adopting a punitive
     • The formula used to allocate resources to provinces                                  stance for ‘under-performing’ schools because of the
       for education services incorporates an equity                                        complexity of school performance in South Africa.
       perspective, but could go much further by reflecting                               • A diagnostic tool like a Public Expenditure Review
       the cost of educating poor children.                                                 (PER) could be very useful to identify underlying
     • School performance in the poorest schools remains                                    bottlenecks and improve the effectiveness of
       a concern, although there is evidence that some poor                                 spending in poor and vulnerable districts and
       schools continue to exceed expectations, despite the                                 schools.

14
Section
     5.
     Financing the

                                                                                      © UNICEF/Bart de Ruigh
     Education Sector
Financing Basic Education at the Subnational                                                                   to be strengthened on two fronts: one, there is a need to better
Level                                                                                                          understand whether the per-pupil allocations at no-fee schools
Overseas Development Assistance (ODA) in South Africa is                                                       are adequate; and two, there is a need to understand that the
small in the context of social service sector budgets, and                                                     focus should be not only on inputs, but also on the outcomes and
funding for school education is financed exclusively from                                                      overall quality of the system. The answer to the first question will
available State revenues. Figure 10 below makes it clear that                                                  provide an indication of whether the rapid expansion of the no-fee
over time, a larger percentage of students are benefiting from                                                 system has overcome the challenges of removing cost barriers
attending no-fee schools. This is a progressive effort that needs                                              for poor children.

Figure 10: Percentage of those aged 5 years and older who attended schools and who do not pay tuition fees, 2002–2016

                                70
                                                                                                                                                       65.4    64.6    65.3
                                                                                                                                       62.1    62.4
                                                                                                                                59.3
                                60                                                                                      57.5

                                50                                                                              46.7
       Percentage of learners

                                40
                                                                               33.4
                                30
                                                                        21.4
                                20

                                10
                                                                 2.9
                                     0.4    0.6    0.5    0.7
                                 0
                                     2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008                             2009   2010    2011    2012    2013    2014   2015    2016

Source: General Household Survey, 2015 and 2016 (official GHS reports)

In a recent report on the impact of the no-fee school                                                          compulsory grades. They do conclude, however, that poor
allocation, Branson et al. (2017)11 conclude that they could                                                   schools need more years of increased funding to address the
not find proof of any impact of the no-fee policy on learners’                                                 historical funding shortfalls and to more reliably establish the
school attendance or educational attainment in the post-                                                       impact of these resources on school performance.

15
Financial and Cost Barriers in Provincial Education
The emerging narrative that the cost of schooling is no                   barriers. It is also noteworthy that a much smaller percentage
longer the main reason for dissatisfaction among learners                 of learners regard ‘poor teaching’ as a problem, even though
attending public schools, is given credence by the results                scores of quantitative studies into the performance of the
in Table 7. Nationally, high school fees are listed as a barrier for      system often attribute poor quality outcomes to poor teaching
only 3.5 per cent of learners. However, these views represent             and unprepared teachers. One should regard some of the data
learners who are attending school and do not include those                with circumspection, given the limited experiences of young
who have dropped out of school because of socio-economic                  children.

Table 7: Percentage of learners who attended public schools experiencing specified problems per province, 2015

                                           EC           FS     GP    KZN          LP        MP          NC        NW          WC        RSA

Lack of books                              2.8           4.3   3.8      4.0       1.5        7.0         3.5        2.9        2.5        3.5

Fees too high                              3.1           3.1   6.8      2.9       0.7        2.7         1.6        3.9        4.8        3.5

Classes too large                          3.6           1.0   4.4      3.7       1.4        4.2         4.2        6.9        9.8        4.2

Lack of teachers                           5.9           0.9   1.8      1.6       0.9        1.2         2.8        5.0        2.1        2.4

Poor teaching                              0.8           1.2   2.0      1.9       0.5        1.3         2.4        1.8        1.5        1.4
Source: General Household Survey, 2016 (official GHS report)

Despite these reservations, the growing storyline seems                   A UNICEF-commissioned study into fiscal space in South
to be that government has done well to encourage poor                     Africa12 has highlighted several issues. Some of the salient
children to attend and stay in school. However, further                   findings include: (i) Levying taxes on the consumption of luxury
analyses have also suggested that the government may not have             goods and introducing the much-discussed sugar tax could lead
the same financial muscle to continue the necessary changes,              to a sizeable amount of new revenue that could be used to finance
and so a focus on the overall fiscal space available to poor children     priority expenditures in the social services sector; (ii) Building on
is of paramount importance.                                               the ongoing efforts to achieve cost savings, such as reducing
                                                                          unnecessary travel, curbing the use of external consultants and
                                                                          generally decreasing spending on non-priority areas that have a
                                                                          poor spending record.

     Takeaways:
     • The government is achieving success in reducing                       expenditures for children (including basic education)
       private costs and financial barriers to basic                         is constrained and will force education authorities to
       education.                                                            be more effective at delivering education services to
     • To validate this narrative, further investigation is                  poor children.
       needed on the adequacy of funding allocations to the                • There are several options that can be pursued by the
       poorest schools and much more needs to be done to                     South African government to increase fiscal space for
       understand the performance equation in poor South                     priority expenditures for children, but it is unclear how
       African schools.                                                      local political dynamics will affect such transactions
     • Fiscal space that once existed to expand priority                     and inevitable compromises.

16
Endnotes
1	The reality is that although the school-age population is         7	To clearly demonstrate the three departments that are
  defined as including 5–17 year olds, the system caters for and       involved in education provisioning in South Africa, we have
  includes those who are 18 years and above.                           not netted out the provincial transfers from the budget of
2	The Presidency, The National Development Plan 2030: Our              the national Department of Basic Education. We have done
  future – make it work. Pretoria, Government Printers, 2011.          that in our presentation of ‘consolidated basic education’.
3	Department of Basic Education, Action Plan to 2019: Towards          Our purpose with this graph was to graphically represent the
  the Realisation of Schooling 2030. Pretoria, Government              overall squeeze on basic education funding.
  Printers, 2016.                                                   8 Earlier versions of the education equitable shares formula
4	Data for this textbox were taken from The Department of              assigned the school-age population component twice the
  Basic Education, Revised Five-Year Strategic Plan: 2015/16–          weight of the school enrolment component, thus penalising
  2019/20. Pretoria, Government Printers, 2016. The TIMMS              provinces with a large percentage of older learners (above 17
  data were drawn from the HSRC TIMMS 2015 reports listed              years old).
  on  [accessed 18 July 2017].         9 Gustafsson, M. Teacher supply and the quality of schooling
  Gender parity school enrolment data were drawn from the              in South Africa: Patterns over space and time. Stellenbosch,
  Department of Basic Education’s Education Statistics in              University of Stellenbosch, 2016.  [accessed August 2017].
  Data on learners who benefited from the no-fee school             11 Branson, N, Lam, D and Hofmeyr, C. The impact of the
  system were drawn from the General Household Survey                  no-fee school policy on enrolment and school performance:
  2016.                                                                evidence from NIDS Waves 1–3. Pretoria, the Department for
5	Our definition of consolidated government expenditure does           Performance Monitoring and Evaluation.
  not include provision for (interest on) public debt, excludes     10	The coefficient of variation measures the degree of
  any public entities, but includes provision for the unallocated      dispersion of data points around the mean, while the mean
  contingency reserve over the present MTEF. Excluding debt            absolute deviation does something similar but ignores the
  service costs provides a more accurate estimate of the               sign of the deviation. Per-pupil expenditure as a factor of
  quantity of resources available for service delivery.                the national average takes the average per-pupil spending of
6 Data for countries other than South Africa were obtained from        the ‘poorest’ provinces and expresses this as a factor of the
  the OECD Data site  [accessed 18 July 2017], which            12	UNICEF, National political economy analysis and fiscal space
  allows the user to compare any number of countries on                profiles of countries in Eastern and Southern Africa: fiscal
  different dimensions of education spending.                          space analysis – South Africa. Rotterdam, UNICEF, 2017.

17
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www.unicef.org/southafrica
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