SMART STEEL Investor Presentation January 2019 - The site can't be reached.
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Agenda Business model and strategy Market positioning Overview financials Business update by region Truck and trailer market trends – what‘s next? Company outlook Smart Steel innovations driving the company 2020 plus 2
SAF-Holland Group Update: Zooming in on trailers and the Aftermarket Total sales by region1 Europe‘s largest listed commercial vehicles supplier with leading positions worldwide 16% 46% 41 subsidiaries featuring 22 manufacturing sites on six continents; 4,400 employees Revenue by Trailer OEM business is approx. 63% of sales region 38% Strong global presence EMEA Americas One of the very few globally positioned CV suppliers APAC/China 87% of sales in Europe and North America Fast growing APAC/China sales Total sales by channel1 Almost 25% of sales originate from the resilient service and aftermarket business, the key asset of the Group 24% Most comprehensive aftermarket spare parts and service network worldwide featuring 10,000 partners in more Revenue by than 80 countries Channel 76% The #1 network in Europe and North America: Key asset for fleets and major barrier to market entry OE business Generates generic growth based upon consistently Aftermarket business increased OE product population in the field 4 1as of September 30, 2018
SAF-HOLLAND: Product portfolio Trailer axles and Truck and bus Fifth wheels and Landing gear and suspension systems suspensions kingpins disk breaks SAF-HOLLAND offers a comprehensive product portfolio for one-stop shopping also covering the aftermarket. 5
Key OEM customers: Trailer, truck and bus manufacturers Almost every major truck, trailer and bus OEM is a SAF-HOLLAND customer. 6
End customers: The fleets SAF-HOLLAND focuses on fleet operators (infrastructure, logistics, specialty, heavy duty, port, etc.). 7
Strategy 2020: Megatrends driving SAF-HOLLAND’s business development are in full effect Mega trends Changing demographics Growing middle Expanding Strategy 2020 class road network until 2030 Significantly growing BRIC: Middle class Global road world population growing by 150% to network: (+1.1 bn people) 2 bn people +25% in the last Aging societies Next 11: Middle decade Increasing class expanding by 2/3 of which built in urbanization and 116% China and India concentration in cities Share of global Chinese road middle class network has tripled consumption in within a 10-year China, India, ASEAN time span region soaring from 30% to 55% until 2030 SAF-HOLLAND People Trucks/ Roads key drivers Money Goods Trailers 8
Strategy 2020: SAF-HOLLAND major beneficiary of soaring “Amazon E-conomy” driving demand for new trucks and trailers Persistent growth of online shopping and “E-conomy” infrastructure consistently pushes demand for new trucks and trailers long-term. Rising number of logistic centers and hubs has transport increase. 9
All regions are delivering on Strategy 2020 EMEA Americas APAC/China Sales in € mn and adj. EBIT margin in % Sales in € mn and adj. EBIT margin in % Sales in € mn and adj. EBIT margin in % 800 20 600 20 200 20 611.8 500 449.4 568.8 429.4 600 540.0 15 15 15 400 402.3 11.1 10.3 9.7 97.7 400 8.3 10 300 10 100 10 7.4 71.3 70.9 7.6 200 200 5 3.7 5 7.5 3.0 5 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017 10
Market positioning 11
SAF-HOLLAND market-leading positions in North America and EMEA in an oligopolistic set-up EMEA North America North America Market-leading Trailer Fifth Trailer axles + Fifth position in NA in axles Wheels suspensions Wheels fifth wheels Already Nr. 2 SAF- SAF- position in trailer 1/2 Jost 1 Hendrickson HOLLAND HOLLAND axles in NA EMEA SAF- SAF- Leading in 1/2 BPW HOLLAND / 2 Jost HOLLAND European trailer V.ORLANDI axles Nr. 2 position in 3 Schmitz Fontaine 3 Meritor Fontaine EMEA fifth wheels strengthened by acquisition of Nr. 3 V.ORLANDI 12 Source: Roland Berger, own research
Among the market leaders in China and India India China (Premium segment) India Acquisition of Indian market leader in Trailer axles Trailer axles trailer axle systems York #1 position in trailer 1 BPW 1 SAF-HOLLAND / YORK axles in the fastest growing TA market worldwide 2 SAF-HOLLAND 2 Tata Motors China Organic growth driven by new Fuwa H.D. Trailers greenfield operation 3 3 in Yangzhou Legislation boosting the premium segment in China 13 Source: Roland Berger, own research
Global presence reduces cyclical risks and provides for regional and structural growth in new markets Sales regions: 85% of sales in Europe and North America 22 production sites Turkey Italy Germany Duzce-Istanbul Canada Bessenbach / Keilberg Flero (Brescia) Woodstock Bessenbach / Frauengrund Nave Singen United Arab Emirates Dubai China Bautou Xiamen Qingdao USA Cincinnati Singapore Dumas Warrenton South Warrenton North Wylie Australia Melton India Brazil Pune Alvorada South Africa Johannesburg Sriperambadur Taluk 14
Unique selling model based upon direct access to broad end customer base that specifies products Customer feedback as regards technical and market requirements High brand recognition: Push Pull Superior product performance OEM End customer combined with aftermarket Sales Sales excellence Sales focusing on fleet managers > 80% of purchasing decisions taken by the fleets 15
The most comprehensive aftermarket spare parts and service network worldwide provides for generic growth and consistent cash flows The Key Asset: Approx. 10,000 spare parts dealers • “Razor and blade” business model generates growth and service stations in more than 80 countries based on consistently increased OE product population guarantee spare parts availability in the field • # 1 Network in Europe and North America a key asset for fleet customers and huge barrier to market entry • Narrows down volatility from OEM industry cycles • Add-on potential from expanding PDC network and positioning of GoldLine/ Sauer Quality Parts brands SAFH axle population in EMEA has more than tripled! 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 North America RoW 1,000,000 Europe 59% 36% 5% 0 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 16
Overview financials 17
Group sales and adjusted EBIT by quarter Sales in € mn Adj. EBIT in € mn. and adj. EBIT margin in % 400 35 14% 345.4 340.6 350 30 26.7 27.1 12% 300.3 26.3 287.3 294.9 25.1 300 277.1 274.2 23.8 273.7 25 259.9 255.8 252.6 22.7 21.6 10% 250 8.9% 20.9 20.3 9.6% 19.8 20 7.5% 18.5 8.0% 8.7% 8% 200 8.7% 8.4% 7.8% 6.7% 6.9% 6.9% 15 6% 150 10 4% 100 50 5 2% 0 0 0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018 Q3 2018 top line grew by 22.9% reaching a record third quarter level of € 340.6 (py: 277.1) mn. Adjusted EBIT margin (incl. extraordinary income of € 4.4mn) rose to 8.0% (py: 7.5%), clean 6.7% 18
Sustained above-plan organic sales growth in all regions paving the way for realizing value in the AM 70% 66.2%* 60% 52.9% 49.2% 50% 40% 38.3% 30% 20% 18.6% 15.1% 11.0% 10% 8.1% 7.6% 5.1% 5.2% 4.1%* 0% EMEA Americas APAC/China Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 (Versus py quarter) (* As compared to Q3 2018 pre. Results, retroactive adjustment of the allotment of the sales in India to the new segment structure) Positive trend in organic sales growth continued in all reporting regions Dynamic APAC/China region versus already high prior year comparables; US successfully managed strong unit sales growth despite ongoing realignment measures within the new US production network 19
Strong FCF generation provides for growth and dividend payouts Free cash flow after taxes, pre-dividend and pre-M&A Dividend payments in € mn in € per share 80 0.60 70 67.7 0.44 0.45 60 0.40 0.40 50 0.32 40 35.0 0.27 30.8 29.7 30 0.20 20 11.3 10 0 0.00 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Sustained strong cash returns (cash conversion of 81%) providing for 2.5 to 3.2% dividend yields in recent years; SAF-HOLLAND dividend policy in general is to distribute 40 to 50% of net income. 20
Net debt at € 268.6 mn - Equity ratio remains solid at 31.5% Net debt Equity ratio in € mn Σ 105.5* Σ 268.6* 500 400 31.5% 300 30.2% 200 442.6 368.4 100 0 -99.8 -100 -200 -337.1 -300 -400 Dec 31, 2017 Sept 30, 2018 Dec 31, 2017 Sept 30, 2018 Cash Debt * Net debt (incl. cash and cash equivalents and other short-term investments) in Q3 2018 increased to € 268.6 mn (Dec. 31,2017: € 105.5 mn); Cash and cash equivalents and other short-term investments amounted to € 99.8 mn (Dec. 31, 2017: € 337.1 mn). The equity ratio as of Sept 30, 2018 was 31.5%. 21
Business update by region 22
EMEA: Solid organic sales growth enables operational leverage Sales in € mn In 15 years axle population in EMEA has more than tripled 200 4,000,000 155.5 144.0 3,000,000 150 100 2,000,000 50 1,000,000 0 0 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Q3 2018 sales growth of 8.0%, on an organic Adj. EBIT in € mn and margin in % basis – adj. for forex and acquisition effects – 20 20% 17.5 sales were up +4.0% yoy 14.5 Aftermarket (AM) growth of 6.3% on a high 15 15% basis 10 10% 11.3% Adj. EBIT rose 20.7% to € 17.5 (py: 14.5) mn 10.1% 5 5% Despite seasonal sales retraction versus Q2, adj. EBIT margin holds up at 11.3% (py: 10.1%) 0 0% supported by positive mix effects and Q3 2017 Q3 2018 operational leverage 23
Update US: Add-on operating cost and clean adj. EBIT margin trend continue to improve successively Washington Maine Add-on operating Adj. EBIT Montana North Vermont New costs in € mn margin in % Dakota Hampshire Oregon South Minnesota Wisconsin Michigan Rhode 6.3 10% Idaho Dakota Island Wyoming PennsylvaniaNew 6.0 Nebraska Iowa Jersey 4.5% 6% Illinois Nevada IndianaOhio West 3.9 Utah Missouri Virginia Virginia 0.6% 1.6% California Colorado Kentucky 4.0 4.0 2% Kansas North Arkansas Tennessee Carolina South 2.3 2.0 -2% Oklahoma Arizona New Mexico Carolina 2.0 -0.7% AlabamaGeorgia Mississippi - 4.1% -6% Texas Louisiana Florida 0.0 -10% SAF-HOLLAND receiving enlarged production locations Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Sales in € mn Sales up 17.3% to € 129.0 (py: 110.0) mn, up € 200 6.0 mn versus Q2 2018 Adj. EBIT at € 6.5 (py: 5.0) mn incl. contribution 129.0 from partial settlement of US medical plan of €4.4 110.0 mn; immediate annual cost savings of € 0.4 mn 100 Successive clean adj. EBIT margin improvement versus Q2 2018 to 1.6% (0.6%) Add-on operating costs of € 2.0 (Q2: 2.3) mn, due to continued start-up inefficiencies and 0 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 realignment of the new US production network 24
Update China: New legislation prompts structural sales growth through 2019 and 2020 Sales in € mn New regulatory load limits for CVs and manda- 100 tory first fit of disk breaks and air suspensions for hazardous goods transporters as of 2020 trigger 80 expansion of the premium segment in China 56.1 60 On an organic basis, sales Q3 2018 up 66.2%; 40 York acquisition contributes close to € 20 mn 23.2 20 Focus on organic growth with implementation of Yangzhou greenfield plant, ramp-up in Q2 2019 0 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Consistent double-digit organic growth 25
Post merger integration running well: York and V.ORLANDI First-time consolidation as of May 1, 2018 Instantly Nr. 1 in trailer axles in India Strong brand Strong position in adjacent Asian markets Realization of synergies in sourcing and manufacturing plus intensive expansion plan for the Aftermarket to grow margin India highest growth trailer market worldwide Further expansion of capacities First-time consolidation as of April 1, 2018 Nr. 2 and Nr. 3 in fifth wheels joined forces Complementary coupling technologies, i.e. specialties State-of the art automated production SAF-HOLLAND organization provides for access to new customers Significant cross-selling potential at Group level Strong mid-teens EBIT margin profile 26
Truck and trailer market trends What‘s next? 27
A long-term growth industry driven by mega trends: Continued increase of global trailer axle production until 2025 Global trailer axle production in thsd. 5,000 4,549 4,349 40 4,153 40 4,000 3,782 3,964 39 3,610 38 3,449 37 3,302 36 2,063 3,167 35 34 1,946 1,833 3,000 33 1,725 1,623 1,528 1,361 1,440 1,292 2,000 1,083 1,028 1,056 974 1,001 922 948 875 898 254 272 291 1,000 206 221 237 169 180 193 859 892 927 963 999 1,035 1,072 798 827 0 2017e 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f 2023f 2024f 2025f North America Latin America Europe APAC MEA 28 Source: Persistence Market Research, Global Trailer Axle Market, December 2017
Mildly supportive market environment in 2019 EMEA North America Truck Shipments1 Trailer Production2 Truck Shipments3 Trailer Production4 2018 +2% +1% 2018 +30% +10% 2019 +3% -8% 2019 +8% -1% NA Class 8 truck shipments forecast to continue 2018 upturn with +8% growth in 2019. NA trailer production slightly down from record level in 2019. European truck market posting slow growth only. European trailer market is expected to decline in 2019. 1 LMC Global Commercial Vehicles Forecast Q2, 2018, medium & heavy trucks 29 2 Clear , Forecast Report, May 2018 3 FTR Truck & Trailer Outlook, November 2018, Class 8 4 FTR Truck & Trailer Outlook, November 2018
Financial targets 2018 (refined on Oct. 19 2018) and mid-term planning 2020 confirmed FY 2018 outlook refined* FY 2018* Strategy 2020 Organic increase of 9 to 10% Organic increase of 5 to 7% Organic: € 1,250 mn assuming stable FX rates and assuming stable FX rates and unchanged scope of unchanged scope of consolidation consolidation Sales + M&A: Coops, JVs, + contribution from V.Orlandi and + contribution from V.Orlandi York takeovers (~ € 65 to € 70 and York takeovers (~ € 60 mn) acquisitions mn) Total: € 1,500 mn + potential further M&A + potential further M&A Rather tending to the lower end of Adj. EBIT the 7.0% to 8.0% range (incl. 7.0% to 8.0% ≥ 8% margin extraordinary income of € 4.4 mn) Net working 12% 12% 12% capital ratio € 38 to 40 mn € 38 to 40 mn incl. high single-digit Euro mn incl. high single-digit Euro mn € 26 mn to € 28 mn p.a. CAPEX amount related to new China amount related to new China ~2.5% of sales plant plant 30 * Projections assume that there is no significant deterioration of the political, economic or industry-specific environment; organic projections do not include potential sales and earnings contributions from acquisitions or JVs
Smart Steel innovations driving the company 2020 plus 31
Content per vehicle opportunity with significant potential from trailer connectivity and data interpretation excpected Trailer content per vehicle European trailer components1 in % OEM market: ■ Chassis ■ Structural elements in € bn - Axles - Body parts 2.0 ~ 13 % - Brakes - Landing gear 1.5 - Suspensions - Side wings - Tail 1.0 - Lighting 1.5 1.7 - Interieur 0.5 0.0 2017 2025e ■ Connectivity systems - Connectivity / telematics 50.0% 48.0% - Sensoring / electronics - Data interpretation / Predictive maintenance - Advanced driver assistent systems 2.0% Connectivity and data-based applications provides for the highest growth rates in the trailer components first fit market 32 1Comprising trailer axles, brakes and landing gear only Source: Roland Berger, own research
SMART STEEL provides for add-on business opportunities in a digitized transport world 1 2 3 4 5 Upgrade to Digitize New business Integrate & Mechanics Electro- Information & models & Digital Connect mechanics Data solutions Predictive Maintenance RECOLUBE SAFH Connect App Big Data Analytics SAF-HOLLAND combines mechanics with sensors and electronics. The Company‘s integration and data interpretation know-how enables smart/autonomous drive systems. 33
Acquisition of Axscend provides for complementary data-based business model Start-up innovation power … … meets market leading position Trailer Master turns trailers into „smarties“ Scalable at SAF-HOLLAND Connectivity and data interpretation Group level Succesfully established license- License-based model to be rolled based business model out to more than 20.000 SAF- Already a couple of thousand HOLLAND fleet customers licenses in the UK alone SAF-HOLLAND achieved a significant time gain Succesful data- and license-based business model offers a scalable platform for a roll out at the group level. 34
Disclaimer Not for general release, publication or distribution in the United States, Australia, Canada or Japan. By attending this presentation you agree to be bound by the following limitations: This presentation has been prepared by SAF-HOLLAND S.A. (“SAF-HOLLAND”) and comprises written materials concerning SAF-HOLLAND. It is furnished to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, to any other person. It contains summary information only and does not purport to be comprehensive and is not intended to be (and should not be used as) the sole basis of any analysis or other evaluation. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information, including projections, estimates, targets and opinions, contained herein, and no liability whatsoever is accepted as to any errors, omissions or misstatements contained herein, and, accordingly, neither SAF-HOLLAND nor any of its directors, officers, employees or advisors nor any other person shall have any responsibility or liability whatsoever (for negligence or otherwise) arising, directly or indirectly, from the use of this presentation, or its contents or otherwise in connection with this presentation. This presentation contains certain statements related to our future business and financial performance and future events or developments involving SAF-HOLLAND and/or the industry in which SAF-HOLLAND operates that may constitute forward-looking statements. These statements may be identified by words such as “believes,” “expects,” “predicts,” “intends,” “projects,” “plans,” “estimates,” “aims,” “foresees,” “anticipates,” “targets,” and similar expressions. Forward-looking statements are not historical facts, but solely opinions, views and forecasts which are based on current expectations and certain assumptions of SAF-HOLLAND’s management or cited from third party sources which are uncertain and subject to risks. Actual events may differ significantly from the anticipated developments due to a number of factors, including without limitation, changes in general economic conditions, changes affecting the fair values of the assets held by SAF-HOLLAND and its subsidiaries, changes affecting interest rate levels, changes in competition levels, changes in laws and regulations, environmental damages, the potential impact of legal proceedings and actions and the Group’s ability to achieve operational synergies from past or future acquisitions. Should any of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or should underlying expectations not occur or assumptions prove to be incorrect, actual results, performance or achievements of SAF-HOLLAND may (negatively or positively) vary materially from those described, explicitly or implicitly, in the relevant forward-looking statement. The information contained in this presentation, including any forward-looking statements expressed herein, speaks only as of the date hereof and reflects current legislation and the business and financial affairs of the SAF-HOLLAND which are subject to change and audit. Neither the delivery of this presentation nor any further discussions of SAF-HOLLAND with any of the recipients thereof shall, under any circumstances, create any implication that there has been no change in the affairs of SAF-HOLLAND since such date. Consequently, SAF-HOLLAND neither accepts any responsibility for the future accuracy of the information contained in this presentation, including any forward-looking statements expressed herein, nor assumes any obligation, to update or revise this information to reflect subsequent events or developments which differ from those anticipated. This presentation is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident or located in any state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would require any registration or licensing within such jurisdiction. This presentation is for information purposes only and does neither constitute an offer to sell securities, nor any recommendation of, or solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities of SAF-HOLLAND in the United States, Germany or any other jurisdiction. In the United States, any securities may not be offered or sold absent registration or an exemption from registration under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933. 35
IR Contact SAF-HOLLAND GmbH Hauptstraße 26 63856 Bessenbach Germany www.safholland.com Klaus Breitenbach Senior Manager Investor Relations / Corporate Communications Klaus.breitenbach@safholland.de Phone: +49 - 6095 301-565 Alexander Pöschl Senior Manager Investor Relations / Corporate Communications alexander.poeschl@safholland.de Phone: +49 - 6095 301-117 36
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