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User Guide: Global Talent 2021
Contents
Introduction .............................................................................................. 1
Modeling the demand for and supply of talent:
Our Methodology ...................................................................................... 1
Skills gaps and talent supply ............................................................................... 2
Determining the “Trend Talent Balance” ............................................................. 3
Categorization of industries and occupations ..................................................... 3
Country Dashboards ................................................................................ 4
How to use the Country Dashboards .................................................................. 4
Talent Databank ........................................................................................ 5
Glossary of terms used in this study ...................................................... 6Introduction
Over the next decade, major structural shifts will dramatically transform the global market for
talent. Significant changes in the patterns of macroeconomic growth, demographics, and the uses of
technology will fundamentally alter the growth trajectories for both the supply and demand for
skilled workers, with important consequences for Human Resource managers and corporate
decision makers.
As many emerging economies improve access to high school and college education, the world
economy overall will benefit significantly from the entry of a large number of newly-trained
workers. This welcome influx of skilled labor will arise, however, just as firms in the developed
economies will find it increasingly difficult to find suitably skilled workers, intensifying the global
“war for talent.” The data in our Global Talent 2021 study projects how these trends will affect the
supply and demand for talent in the next decade, and should prove useful to HR managers and
corporate leaders as they create their global investment strategies.
Modeling the demand for and supply of talent: Our Methodology
The flowchart below illustrates the economic modeling structure and analysis used to forecast the
supply of and demand for talent in each of the countries covered.
Oxford Economics suite of economic and sector models
Employment Labor supply
forecasts by SIC forecasts Outcomes
benchmarked
Demand –
against OE
Demand analysis and forecasting supply
Supply and forecasting (Analysis models and
linkages
(Construction of SIC/SOC tables, analysis of trends in education and other industry/
of trends) demographics) productivity
datasets, e.g.,
KLEMS,
Labor supply forecasts, Conference
Employment forecasts by education and
SOC job categories and Board, OECD
demographics STAN
SIC industries
Analysis of the trend talent balance: technical skills
(Demand and supply analysis brought together shows the trend talent balance, analyzed by SOC job categories and SIC industries)
Benchmarking survey Model outputs, analyzed by SOC job
findings with outcomes category and SIC industry
from demand and
supply models
Talent skills survey
(Survey data on enabling skills for survey-defined job categories)
Analysis of the trend talent balance: enabling skills
(Integrating survey findings with model results, analysis of the trend talent balance for enabling skills in survey-defined job categories)
1Skills gaps and talent supply
This study builds upon our suite of economic models and is augmented with additional analysis
undertaken specifically for this project. Our modeling strategy allows us to build a talent demand
forecast that takes into account the following three types of drivers:
1. Impact of economic growth and productivity (macroeconomic drivers). The demand for talent
in 2021 will depend in large part on the rate of economic growth in the country where they are
located. Many factors determine economic growth in specific countries, including government
monetary and fiscal policies, national savings and investment rates, and current account
sustainability (trade balance). We used our macroeconomic models to provide benchmark
forecasts for economic growth over the next decade as the basis for our talent demand
projections.
2. Impact of changes in the relative size of specific industries (demand shifts between
industries). In addition to the impact of overall economic growth, the demand for talent in 2021
will also depend, in part, on shifts in industry structure over the next decade. Our models for
specific industry sectors provide a tool for analyzing industry drivers that will affect the future
demand for talent. These models can account for changes that will alter the mix between
manufacturing and service sector outputs, for instance. This study includes estimates of how
changes in industry structure within a country could affect the demand for different types of
talent.
3. Impact of changes in the skills needs of specific occupations within industries (demand shifts
within an industry). This analysis examines the demand for talent in occupational groups within
industries, today and in the future. To do this, we studied the occupational mix used by specific
industries, drawing on data from national census and labor force surveys (LFS) and examined
trends to forecast projected changes in occupational mix in 2021. For example, businesses have
increasingly adopted digital technologies over the past decade and have consequently faced
growing demand for employees who either have professional skills in information technology
(IT) or are IT literate. LFS and census data allow us to monitor the increased use of IT
professionals in different industries, while skills surveys such as the UK’s national skills survey
provide evidence of IT literacy by occupation and industry.
The supply side of the research builds upon demographic forecasts provided by the International
Labor Organization (ILO) and the United Nations, which provides projections of changes in the size
of the working age population and migration rates.
Overlaying these data are projections for the expected rate of improvement in educational
attainment and a detailed modeling of labor force participation rates by different talent groups.
Population growth notwithstanding, the most important factor determining the growth of the high-
skilled talent pool is the rate of improvement in access to and quality of high school and college
education. For example, some emerging economies, such as China, have invested heavily in
improving access to higher education. In wealthier, OECD countries, educational standards are
generally improving, with increasing emphasis on IT skills.
2Determining the “Trend Talent Balance”
To determine the projected balance of talent within countries, we calculated the growth rate of
talent supply less the growth rate in talent demand. Where the growth in the talent supply exceeds
the growth in demand, the resulting positive skill gap represents a talent surplus. A negative
number, by contrast, represents a talent deficit. In the Country Dashboards, surpluses and deficits
are reported in terms of the annual average growth rate for the period from 2011 to 2021. This is
the metric used in the global talent heat map, together with the chart illustrating the overall trend
talent balance and talent rankings shown on the first and second pages of the Country Dashboards.
The first page of each Country Dashboard depicts the trend talent balance for those with a college
education or equivalent. The second page illustrates the trend talent balance for those with a high
school education or equivalent. The trend talent balance for college-educated workers focuses on
three categories of workers—executives, professionals, and technical workers. The trend talent
balance for high school-educated workers refers to all occupations.
Thus, according to our rankings, India, Indonesia, Colombia, South Africa, and Brazil are projected to
have the largest talent surpluses in 2021, with the most improved opportunities to find adequately
educated staff, while Taiwan, Japan, Poland, Italy, and Chile are expected to confront the steepest
talent deficits.
Categorization of industries and occupations
Our economic models provide detailed forecasts for specific countries and industries. For this study,
we have determined what these country and industry forecasts imply for the demand and supply of
talent in particular occupations. To do this, we constructed a detailed description of the
occupational structure of the workforce by industry for each country.
Building these occupation-industry tables required us to analyze data collected by national census
and/or annual labor force surveys (LFS). Labor force data are recorded using a number of
classification schemes. The two most important describe:
1. The type of activity of the establishment in which people are employed (called “industry” – even
if the activity described is a service).
2. The type of work performed (called “occupation” but specific vocations and jobs are identified
with greater detail).
The economies of the 46 countries were analyzed in nine occupational groups:
Executives and managers Skilled agriculture
Professionals Craft workers
Technical workers Plant operators
Administrators Unskilled
Customer service
These occupational groups correspond to the major occupational groups identified under the
International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO-88), which are available here:
http://www.ilo.org/public/english/bureau/stat/isco/intro3.htm
Although data for skilled agriculture and unskilled workers were included in the models, supply and
demand for those occupational groups is not reported in the Country Dashboards or Databank.
3The models analyzed the industrial structure of the following business sectors:
Agriculture Financial services
Mining Real estate
Manufacturing Professional services
Power generation Business process outsourcing services (BPOS)
Water Public administration
Construction Education
Wholesale and retail trade Healthcare
Transportation services Entertainment and arts
Hotels and catering Other services
Information, communications, and
technology (ICT) services
These sectors correspond to the major industry groups identified under the International Standard
Industrial Classification (ISIC Revision 4). The definitions are available here:
http://unstats.un.org/unsd/cr/registry/regcst.asp?Cl=27.
Though projected changes in the agricultural sector were included in building these economic
models, supply and demand for agricultural labor is not reported in the Country Dashboards or
Databank.
Country Dashboards
For each of the 46 countries analyzed, we have created an individual talent Dashboard, which can be
used by HR managers and other executives to better understand the cross-cutting trends of supply
and demand that will affect the trend talent balance in individual countries. These Dashboards help
users quickly understand where a country ranks in terms of its supply of available talent, and where
talent will be in surplus or shortfall by individual industry sector.
HR executives can use these charts to assess the relative supply of talent, by industry, in the markets
where they currently operate or may expand in the future. The data can also guide talent recruiters
and HR managers to markets where they are more likely to find the talent they need in specific
industries or occupations, based on the measures of relative surplus or deficit.
The first page for each Country describes the balance of talent for college-educated workers; the
second page, the shows the trend talent balance for those with a high school education.
How to use the Country Dashboards
The following explains each section of the Dashboard:
Overall Talent Balance illustrates the projected percentage growth of both supply and demand of
talent in the individual country between 2011 and 2021, and the overall net balance. A positive
number indicates a surplus of talent; a negative number a talent deficit.
Global and Regional Talent Rankings shows where a country stands—relative to other nations in its
region and globally—in terms of its trend talent balance. Each nation’s ranking is broken out to show
relative balances for executive, professional, and technical talent.
Talent Balance by Industry and Occupation illustrates the percentage growth in specific
occupational categories projected for the period from 2011 to 2021. Positive numbers indicate a
4projected surplus in the supply of talent in the specified occupational group; negative numbers
indicates an expected shortfall in talent supply.
Workforce Profile depicts the percentage of the total workforce expected to be employed in various
occupational groups in 2021.
Talent Demand by Occupation shows the actual numbers of workers employed in specific
occupational groupings today, and the absolute growth expected in those occupations from 2011 to
2021.
Each country Dashboard page also delineates the factors that lead to changes in the supply and
demand for talent in the individual country. The Overall Talent Balance shows how the talent supply
in a country is affected by changes in the number of students graduating from universities and by
changes in the demographic cohort; countries with relatively young populations will tend to have an
increasing pool of students attending universities and technical colleges, while countries with aging
populations will experience a relative decline. The figure is also affected by the net migration of
workers (the difference between in- and out-migration of workers) and by inactivity drag (the
number of people who are willing and able but who cannot find work).
Talent demand in each country is calculated based on the projected overall economic growth of the
country, as well as by the expected movement of workers between sectors (for example, from
manufacturing to service-related employment or from manufacturing to computer services industry
employment). It is also affected by how the skills-mix required within each sector changes over time.
Talent Databank
The Global Talent Databank allows users to define, create and chart occupational supply and
demand data, by country, for any period of time up to 2021. Drop-down menus allow users to
determine which occupations, industries, or even macroeconomic values they would like to
investigate, and can offer projected talent balances by year and by occupational category. The
material can be downloaded as either a chart or a table.
The Talent Databank includes macro- and socio-economic data and forecasts compiled from
Oxford’s Global Economic Databank. This includes the components of domestic demand and GDP,
wages and employment, trade balances, labor force and population growth, estimates of working
age population, urban and rural population figures.
HR managers will find this data especially helpful as they prepare strategic plans, create reports to
support their HR efforts, or explain HR trends to key members of their management operation.
The databank is available to subscribers at: put web address here
Subscribers to the talent databank will have access to regular information updates, so users can
monitor changes in particular countries as economic or employment patterns change over time.
Longer-term talent variables (such as those relating to skills preferences and human resources
approaches) are updated on an annual basis. Shorter-term macro- and socio-economic indicators
are updated monthly.
5Glossary of terms used in this study
Term Definition
Agile Thinking Skills Agile thinking refers to the types of capabilities employees will need in an
increasingly complicated and fast-paced business environment. These include
the ability to deal with complexity and ambiguity, manage paradoxes and
balance opposing views, consider and prepare for multiple scenarios, innovate,
and see the “big picture.”
Capabilities The knowledge, skills, and attitudes of a group, or cultural measures of an
organization.
Competencies The measurable knowledge, skills, and observed behaviors of individuals that are
required for effective performance; often organized by increasing levels of
knowledge, responsibility, or mastery. Can be used to design training programs
and develop performance standards.
Digital Skills Digital skills refer to the capabilities employees outside the IT department will
need to operate in a digitized business environment. These include digital design
skills, use of corporate IT software and systems, application of social media and
Web 2.0, ability to work virtually, and digital business skills.
Diverse Employee Employees who are from different cultures or geographies. The ability to
Populations manage diverse employees is a key global operating skill.
Emerging Markets Rapidly growing, industrializing countries are emerging market countries. For the
purposes of this study, Argentina, Bahrain, Barbados, Bermuda, Brazil, Chile,
China, Egypt, India, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, Qatar, Russia, Singapore, South
Africa, Thailand, and the UAE are classified as “emerging markets”.
Engagement A measure of discretionary effort an employee is willing to exhibit; typically
measured in an associate’s commitment to and enthusiasm about the
organization.
Global Operating Global operating skills refer to the capabilities employees will need to succeed in
Skills an international and multicultural business environment. These include
understanding international markets, cultural sensitivity, ability to manage
diverse employees, foreign language skills, and the ability to work in multiple
overseas locations.
High-potential High-performing employees who also show a strong capacity to grow and
Employees succeed throughout their career more quickly and effectively than their peers.
HR Scorecard Defined metrics and goals for a few critical measures of key HR objectives with a
clearly defined link to business objectives.
Human Capital Human Resource Information Systems (HRIS) data and other information and
Data metrics about the employees in an organization.
Inactivity Drag A percentage reflecting the number of willing and able workers who cannot find
employment.
Industrialized For the purposes of this study, Australia, Austria, Canada, France, Germany,
Markets or Nations Japan, Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, UK, and US are classified as
“industrialized markets.”
Integration and Integration and synergy means understanding how different HR solutions mesh
Synergy with each other and with other organizational processes to deliver a unique and
distinctly compelling proposition to the organization and the workforce. It is
about ensuring that decisions work together in concert and reinforce each other.
Interpersonal and Interpersonal and communication skills refer to the capabilities employees will
Communication need to communicate across teams. These include oral and written
Skills communication, collaboration, co-creativity and brainstorming, teaming
(including virtual teaming), and relationship building (with customers, partners,
government).
6Term Definition
Leadership Programs designed to increase the effectiveness of leaders in the organization
Development by instilling them with the skills and capabilities necessary to lead others, as well
as the self-reflection to understand their leading style.
Logic-Driven Logic-driven analytics are the application of data, tools, methods, and logic to
Analytics understand and enhance decisions about global shifts in the supply and demand
for talent. The analytical methods that will be the most widespread to
understand future talent supply and demand include HR scorecards, workforce
planning tools, marketing frameworks, scenario analysis, and finance
frameworks.
Net Migration The sum of workers entering into and leaving the workforce in a country. The
difference between immigration into and emigration during a time period (net
migration is therefore negative when the number of emigrants exceeds the
number of immigrants).
Performance The programs and processes managers use to evaluate, guide, and improve
Management performance, including performance form content, alignment with business
cycle, goal-setting cycle and process, high potential/high performer
identification, and manager effectiveness.
Pivotal Roles The roles that contribute most directly to an organization’s ability to achieve and
maintain a competitive advantage in the marketplace; often these roles require
specialized skills or knowledge and affect long-term business value. These are
roles where the difference between good-great and moderate-good
performance significantly affects business success.
Risk Leverage Risk leverage means approaching uncertainty in human capital as both an
opportunity and a risk, and seeing beyond simple risk reduction. Risk leverage
transforms the traditional mind-set that risk is bad. Taking the right risks is often
as vital as avoiding the wrong ones.
Talent Acquisition/ The programs and processes used to attract, select and train associates, both
Recruiting internally and externally.
Talent Demand The demand for workers by employers. Talent demand is driven by economic
growth, and shifting talent requirements both within and between industries.
Talent The programs and processes used to identify leadership and workforce needs,
Management engage and develop leaders, managers and associates, and align behaviors with
the critical drivers of business performance.
Talent Talent optimization means investing more heavily in talent and human capital
Optimization areas where the return is greater, and investing less in areas where the return is
lower. Optimization follows on from segmentation and builds on the differences
between employee groups to enable the organization to realize optimal value.
Talent Pipeline Refers to the employees or talent who are ready for or in the process of
developing into certain roles or positions within the organization.
Talent Pool A group of employees who possess the skills and capabilities required to fill a
variety of roles, as needed, based on business need and role availability.
Talent Talent segmentation involves identifying the strategic categories of employees
Segmentation and potential employees by discerning the most vital differences between them.
Such strategic categories are based on what the organization needs from
employees and potential employees (demand side) or what the organization can
offer to attract or motivate them (supply side).
Talent Supply The supply of workers. The supply of talent is driven by demographic change and
educational improvements, adjusted for net migration of workers and inactivity
drag.
Technical Skills The knowledge and abilities required to accomplish a specific, function-based
task, such as, systems architecture.
7Term Definition
Top Performing Employees whose performance is in the top 10% of the workforce.
Employees
Workforce A systematic approach that uses business and talent data to understand the
Analytics current state of the workforce, help anticipate future talent needs, and facilitate
optimal talent investments that deliver the right number of employees with the
right skills at the right time and cost.
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