Skilling India No Time To Lose - NCAER

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Skilling India No Time To Lose - NCAER
Skilling India
No Time To Lose

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Skilling India No Time To Lose - NCAER
Skilling India
  No Time To Lose

“We have no time to lose, and having no time
     we must scramble for a chance.”
            —Rabindranath Tagore
Skilling India No Time To Lose - NCAER
This NCAER Report has been made possible by a generous grant from the New Skills at Work
     programme of J.P. Morgan.

                                                                                                            Contents
     About NCAER
     NCAER, the National Council of Applied Economic Research, is India’s oldest and largest inde-          Forewordv
     pendent economic think-tank, set up in 1956 to inform policy choices for both governments and          NCAER Skilling India working papers vi
     industry. For more than six decades, NCAER has served the nation with its rich offering of applied     Acknowledgmentsvii
     policy research, unique data sets, evaluations and policy inputs to central and state governments,
     corporate India, the media and informed citizens. It is one of a few think-tanks world-wide that       Chapter 1
     combine rigorous analysis and policy outreach with deep data collection capabilities, especially for   The urgency of skilling India’s workforce                                                 1
     large-scale household surveys.                                                                         India’s economy is on the move­— ­but its workforce has barely budged                     1
                                                                                                            More Indians of working age, with fewer young and old dependent on them­— ­a
     © 2018 National Council of Applied Economic Research/NCAER                                                  demographic dividend or a curse?                                                      1
                                                                                                            High-growth sectors are not creating jobs in those sectors                                 2
     This report was first published in October 2018.                                                       Why does India have economic growth without jobs?                                          3
                                                                                                            Escaping the vicious cycle                                                                 7
     This report is a product of the research staff of NCAER. The findings, interpretations and conclu-
     sions expressed herein do not necessarily represent the views of NCAER or those of its Governing       Chapter 2
     Body.                                                                                                  Acquiring skills
                                                                                                            How best to impart them                                                                   11
     National Council of Applied Economic Research                                                          Simplifying skill definitions makes it easier to see what’s needed                        11
     11, Indraprastha Estate                                                                                The world’s largest school system is not producing enough literate and numerate workers   12
     New Delhi–110002, India                                                                                Technical and vocational education are too supply-driven and short term                   13
     Telephone: +91–11–2337–9861 to 63                                                                      Apprenticeships for learning-by-doing and learning-while-earning                          18
     Fax: +91–11–2337–0164                                                                                  Industry clusters for supplying skills to meet local demand conditions                    19
     Email: info@ncaer.org                                                                                  Imparting skills on the job to make skilling more demand-driven                           19
     www.ncaer.org                                                                                          Turning the vicious cycle virtuous: acquiring skills and generating good jobs             20
                                                                                                            Focus and consolidate technical and vocational education                                  26
                                                                                                            Reach special groups                                                                      26
                                                                                                            Ensure that skills are portable across other jobs and sectors                             29
                                                                                                            Appendix A2.1 A glossary of skills                                                        30
                                                                                                            Appendix A2.2 Explanations for ratings in table 2.1                                       32

                                                                                                            Chapter 3
     About the New Skills at Work–India Programme                                                           Matching skills
     The J.P. Morgan New Skills at Work–India programme seeks to focus on the three critical elements       How best to adjust them                                                                   39
     of employment, employability and education; engage key stakeholders from government, industry          The supply of skills doesn’t match the demand                                             41
     and skill training providers; and as a research programme meaningfully contribute both to policy       An army of educated unemployed­— ­a nd acute shortages of skilled workers                 45
     as well as practice pertaining to employability, labour markets and the skilling supply chain.         Fixing the mismatches requires more than vocational skill training                        46
                                                                                                            Connecting women to work                                                                  49
                                                                                                            Increasing the mobility of labour                                                         50
     About JPMorgan Chase & Co.                                                                             Unleashing opportunity entrepreneurs                                                      51
     JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) is a leading global financial services firm with assets of            Formalising informal workers by recognising prior learning                                52
     US 2.5 trillion and operations worldwide. The firm is a leader in investment banking, financial        India’s new knowledge economy requires new skills                                         54
     services for consumers and small businesses, commercial banking, financial transaction process-
     ing, and asset management. A component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, JPMorgan Chase             Chapter 4
     & Co. serves millions of customers in the United States and many of the world’s most prominent         Anticipating skills
     corporate, institutional and government clients under its J.P. Morgan and Chase brands. For more       How best to adapt them                                                                    61
     information about JPMorgan Chase & Co., visit www.jpmorganchase.com.                                   Exchanging life-time employment for life-time employability                               61
                                                                                                            Adapting to structural and technological change                                           62
     While this report has been supported by J.P. Morgan, the content and opinions are those of authors     Anticipating the skills of the future                                                     65
     alone and do not reflect the views of J.P. Morgan, JPMorgan Chase & Co. or any of its affiliates.
ii                                                                                                                                                                                                     iii
Skilling India No Time To Lose - NCAER
Foreword
     Policy recommendations for adapting and anticipating skills                                   73   India’s future holds great hope for its millions.     framework for policymakers and practitioners
                                                                                                         Its working-age population is growing faster          to use to design, execute and evaluate skilling
     Boxes                                                                                               than its population of young and old depend-          pathways that can help break the cycle of poor
     2.1 “Learn and Earn” at Boeing and Saint Gobain                              17                    ents. This demographic dividend comes once in         skilling and slow creation of good jobs­        —­the
     2.2 Demand-driven interventions for on-the-job training in large firms       20                    a nation’s life. If the majority of Indian workers    low-skilling trap that India is caught in. The
     2.3 The Wheebox Employability Skills Test: India Skills Report 2017 and 201826                     in this transition are productively employed in       Report argues that the three-part framework of
     2.4 Boosting entrepreneurial skills                                          27                    good jobs, and earn and save well, India can          acquiring, matching, and anticipating skills provides
     3.1 In search of the public-sector job                                       48                    see a sustained long-term growth spurt that it        a way of designing, executing, and evaluating
     3.2 The knowledge economy and skills                                         54                    badly needs to rise to its potential as an eco-       policies and programmes to accelerate skilling
     4.1 Entrepreneurial initiatives to improve farm productivity                 67                    nomic powerhouse. India can then become rich          India, and to move from its current vicious
     4.2 Young women in plastics                                                  69                    before it becomes old. Otherwise, it will forfeit     cycle to a virtuous cycle of better skilling and
     4.3 Digital villages                                                         72                    its demographic dividend.                             faster creation of good jobs.
     4.4 Indian weaver micro-entrepreneurs connect to startup digital aggregators 73                        For the majority of Indians to be in good jobs        All stakeholders in the skilling space
                                                                                                         requires them to have the skills that employers       must work together to acquire and impart,
     Figures                                                                                             and entrepreneurs need. India’s skilling para-        to match and adjust, and to anticipate and
     1.1 More workers mean fewer dependents                                                         2   dox is that the labour market is characterised        adapt the skills that India will need in the
     1.2 More regular employees in smaller firms—more contract workers in larger firms              4   by dwindling opportunities in agriculture,            next three decades to generate good jobs for
     1.3 India’s 468 million jobs: From baskets to bytes                                            5   there is much potential for jobs in manufactur-       its rapidly expanding workforce. This impera-
     1.4 Ratio of wages/rental price of capital in organised Indian manufacturing                   6   ing and services, but there are not enough peo-       tive calls for distinct roles and responsibilities
     1.5 The vicious cycle of low skills and few good jobs—a low skilling trap                      7   ple with the right skills, even for today’s jobs.     for employers, for governments, for skill pro-
     2.1 How skills interact                                                                       12   While IBM has more employees in India than            viders and for workers. And it calls for mutu-
     2.2 Lagging behind other BRICS nations, more than 30% of India’s workers have only a                in the US, ever more Indians are struggling to        ally reinforcing policies, actions, incentives
         primary education and only 18% have a secondary education                                 13   find work. And while India grapples with the          and understanding among and between these
     2.3 Big numbers for India’s education and skilling ecosystem                                  14   legacy of its existing skills–jobs mismatch, it       four key stakeholders to successfully impart,
     2.4 India’s vicious cycle of low skills and few good jobs—a low skilling trap                 21   must pay attention to anticipating the skills of      match and anticipate skills for India in the
     2.5 Moving to a virtuous circle of higher skills and many good jobs—escaping the low                tomorrow, when it sometimes is not even clear         21st century.
         skilling trap                                                                             21   what those skills might be.                               We need a 15-year, 2020–35 perspective
     3.1 Most workers have little education                                                        41       This NCAER Report on Skilling India has the       plan focused on transferable skills that can
     3.2 Rural–urban wage gaps                                                                     51   subtitle No Time to Lose. Indeed, much time has       meet the demand from industries now and in
     4.1 Low-productivity sectors employ higher proportions of the workforce and vice versa        62   already been lost. Policymakers face the triple       the future. To prepare such a plan, the govern-
     4.2 Venture capitalists identify why Indian startups fail                                     66   challenge of incentivising the creation of more       ment should establish a Commission for 21st
     4.3 Smaller firms are far from ready to use information and communications technology         69   well-paying jobs, creating efficient pathways         Century Skills. This NCAER Report could pro-
     4.4 Digital literacy is required for managers and permanent workers                           70   to skill acquisition and job matching to ensure       vide a framework for the terms of reference for
     4.5 Small and medium-size enterprises are not digitally engaged                               70   workers have the right skills, and protecting         such a Commission.
     4.6 Computer literacy is low for those 15 and above­— ­a nd even lower in rural areas, 2014   71   low-paid, low-skilled workers with social secu-           This Report starts with a quotation on its
     4.7 Working together to skill India: governments, providers, employers and workers            74   rity benefits. An additional challenge comes          opening page from Rabindranath Tagore’s
                                                                                                         from the massive number of workers aged               Gitanjali, “We have no time to lose, and hav-
     Tables                                                                                              30–59 who are in the workforce but have to be         ing no time we must scramble for a chance.”
     2.1 Rating India’s largest skilling schemes (see also Annex 2.2)                              23   reskilled or upskilled.                               Though not included on the opening page,
     3.1 Where are the 468 million jobs?                                                           40       After suggesting simple ways of thinking          Tagore’s next line written in 1912 reads, “We
     3.2 Demand for skills across occupational roles                                               42   about the three types of skills that are              are too poor to be late.” India has achieved
     3.3 Mismatches between supply and demand                                                      46   fundamental­—­foundational,           employability   much since Tagore wrote those words, yet it
     3.4 Education and employment of Indian youth                                                  48   and entrepreneurial­     —­
                                                                                                                                   this Report offers a        cannot afford to be late.
     3.5 Male–female distribution of managers by sector                                            50
     4.1 Sectoral output and employment                                                            63
     4.2 What skills are most transferable?                                                        64                                                                                              Shekhar Shah
     4.3 Transitioning from skills to jobs in 21st century India                                   66                                                                                           Director-General

iv                                                                                                                                                                                                                v
Skilling India No Time To Lose - NCAER
NCAER Skilling India working papers                                                          Acknowledgments
     1. Where are the Jobs? Skill-based Input-Output Employment Linkages by Sector for India      This Report has been prepared by a team at         Ghosh, Mukesh Gulati, Abhishek Gupta,
        Tulika Bhattacharya and Bornali Bhandari                                                  NCAER led by Bornali Bhandari and com-             Mukesh Gupta, Raj Gupta, Lisa Heydlauff,
                                                                                                  prising Pallavi Choudhuri, Mousumi Das,            Frank Hoffmann, Renana Jhabvala, Aruna-
     2. Is India’s Education System providing 21st Century Basic and Employability Skills?        Tulika Bhattacharya, Soumya Bhadury and            chalam Karthikeyan, Antara Lahiri, Jürgen
        Mousumi Das                                                                               Girish Bahal, with additional contributions        Männicke, Jancy Mathews, Abhiroop Muk-
                                                                                                  by ­Saurabh Bandyopadhyay, Renu Gupta and          hopadhyay, Sheeja Nair, Arun Nalavadi, Kedar
     3. India’s Employment Challenges and the Demand for Skills                                   Seema Sangita. The team was assisted for data      Panda, Matthias Pilz, J. V. Rao, Biswajit Saha,
        Pallavi Choudhuri                                                                         analysis and literature work by Ajaya K. Sahu,     Alekh Sanghera, Ratna Silroja, Bikrama Dau-
                                                                                                  Praveen Rawat, Mridula Duggal, Rohini Sany-        let Singh, Deepti Singh, Lokesh Singh, Anup
     4. The 3–E Challenge in India: Education, Employability, and Employment                      al, Jahnavi Prabhakar, Heena Bhatia, Aishwar-      K. Srivastava, Johannes Strittmatter, Vandana
        Bornali Bhandari                                                                          ya Agarwal, Aarti Garg, Sanskriti Goel, Upend-     Thallur, Shamik Trehan, Aditya Tyagi, Mahesh
                                                                                                  er Kataria, Anjali Parashar, Sudhir Swarup and     Venkateshwaran, Sher Verick, Wilima Wadh-
     5. Providing the Full Range of Employability Skills in India                                 Sumit Aggarwal. Bruce Ross-Larson was the          wa and Jürgen Wuttke.
        Bornali Bhandari                                                                          principal editor. The team would like to thank        Early versions of the research papers on
                                                                                                  Rajesh Chadha and D. B. Gupta for their con-       which this Report is based were presented at a
     6. The Role of Pedagogy in Developing Life Skills in India                                   stant advice and support. The work was car-        conference in New Delhi in October 2016. We
        Renu Gupta                                                                                ried out under the general direction of Shekhar    thank the participants at the conference for
                                                                                                  Shah, with assistance from Akansha Dubey,          their valuable comments.
     7. How do Technical Education and Vocational Training Impact Labour Productivity in India?   and subsequently Anwesha Pandey.                      Sudesh Bala served as executive assistant to
        Seema Sangita                                                                                 The team was guided by a panel of experts      the project, Sangita Chaudhary as team assis-
                                                                                                  comprising Dilip Chenoy, Rukmini ­Banerji, R.      tant, and Praveen Sachdeva as technical support.
     8. An Exploratory, State-wise Education-Employability-Employment Index for India             C. Bhargava, Pramod Bhasin, Rajesh Chakra-         Rabi Narayan Panda provided financial manage-
        Saurabh Bandyopadhyay, Bornali Bhandari, Ajaya K Sahu and Praveen Rawat                   barti, S. Ramadorai, R. C. M. Reddy, and           ment services, Anupma Mehta editing support,
                                                                                                  Manish Sabharwal. We thank them for their          and Jagbir Singh Punia publication support.
     9. Viewing Skilling India from the ground up: Project case studies                           valuable insights and guidance. Arup Mitra,           Report design, editing and production were
                                                                                                  B. N. Goldar, and Anil K. Sharma provided          coordinated by a team at Communications
     Available from http://www.ncaer.org/skillingindia/workingpapers.                             valuable comments on early drafts of several       Development Inc. led by Bruce Ross-Larson
                                                                                                  working papers.                                    and including Joe Caponio, Mike Crumplar,
                                                                                                      The team undertook a range of interviews       Debra Naylor and Elaine Wilson.
                                                                                                  for this Report. For their valuable time and the      This work was generously supported by a
                                                                                                  many insights they shared, we thank our inter-     grant from the New Skills at Work programme
                                                                                                  viewees, including Karen Adams, Aradhna            of J.P. Morgan. We would particularly like to
                                                                                                  Aggarwal, Ishwarya Balasubramanian, Rama-          thank Maneesha Chadha, Diana Tsui, and
                                                                                                  ni Balasubramanian, Jagmohan Bhogal, Rabin         Chauncy Lennon for their patience and under-
                                                                                                  Bose, Sujoy Chatterjee, Sandhya Chintala,          standing as this Report went through sever-
                                                                                                  Neeta Pradhan Das, Sonalde Desai, Ravi Dha-        al incarnations and for their partnership with
                                                                                                  nuka, Ambarish Dutta, Judith Evers, Arindam        NCAER.

vi                                                                                                                                                                                                vii
Skilling India No Time To Lose - NCAER
Highlights
                               India has a skilling                                           India’s 468 million
                               paradox                                                        workers have to move
                                                                                              from baskets to bytes
                               India accounted for 25% of the world’s estimat-
                               ed 7.5 million bachelors in science and engi-                  The transition of India’s labour force from
                               neering in 2014. No wonder the world’s leading                 small, unregistered firms in the informal sec-
                               tech companies have their largest operations                   tors to small, medium and large formal firms
                               in India. Yet, as the Economist notes, even as                 has been slow. Rigid labour laws and poor
                               “India’s labour force will soon overtake China’s               infrastructure impede the pace of transi-
                               as the world’s largest … the country is strug-                 tion from informal to formal jobs. So, what’s
                               gling to generate opportunities for a workforce                needed?
                               with the wrong skills.” The 2015 policy of the                    Conceptually the answer is clear: skill exist-
                               Ministry of Skill Development and Entrepre-                    ing informal workers (many of them female)
                               neurship notes, “Our country presently faces                   and new workers based on industry require-
                               a dual challenge of paucity of highly trained                  ments and deploy them in a rapidly growing
                               workforce, as well as non-employability of                     formal sector. Efficiency is higher in the formal
                               large sections of the conventionally educated                  sector, costs are lower and profit margins are
                               youth, who possess little or no job skills.” This              bigger, all translating into greater job-gener-
                               is India’s skilling paradox: Dwindling oppor-                  ating potential. Formalisation increases firms’
                               tunities in agriculture, much potential for jobs               incentives to invest in upskilling their work-
                               in manufacturing and services, but not enough                  ers. It also increases the workers’ own incen-
                               people with the right skills.                                  tives to remain skilled, besides providing them
                                                                                              with better working conditions and health and
                                                                                              social security benefits.
                                                                                                                                                                    BYTES
                                                                                                                                                                   High skill
IBM Now Has More
Employees in India                                                                                                          15% in Manufactu
                                                                                                                                                                 ring
   Than in the U.S.
                                                                                                                          27%
 IBM has shifted its center                                                                                                           in S
 of gravity halfway around                                                                                           10                     er v
                                                                                                                                                ices
         the world to India.                                                                                            %
                                                                                                                            in
             The New York Times,                                                                                                 Co

                                                                                                        49%
             28 September 2017                                                                                                     ns
                                                                                                                                       tr
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                                                                                                                                              tio
                                                                                                                                                   n

                                                                                                            in A

                                                                                                                                                                      al
                                                                                                                                                                    rm
                                                                                                             gri
                                                       Ever More Indians

                                                                                                               cul

                                                                                                                                                                  fo
                                                                                                                   tur
                                                       Are Struggling to

                                                                                                                                                              %
                                                                                                                                                           l/8
                                                                                                                      e
                                                       Find Work                                                                                             a
                                                                                                                                                           rm
                                                       The country is missing                                                                            fo
                                                       out on its “demographic
                                                                                                                                                       in
                                                                                                                                          %
                                                       dividend”                                                                        92
                                                       The Economist,
                                                       14 September 2017

                                                                                                BASKETS                                                     From page 5.
                                                                                                Low skill

                                                                           From back cover.                                                                               ix
Skilling India No Time To Lose - NCAER
But India is trapped in a                                        Moving to a virtuous circle                                           Simplifying skill                                              A three-part framework
    vicious cycle of low skills                                      of better skilling and more                                           definitions makes it                                           for thinking about how
    and few good jobs                                                good jobs is imperative                                               easier to see what’s                                           to make India’s skilling
                                                                                                                                           needed                                                         ecosystem work better—
    The combination of inadequately skilled work-                    Policymakers need to consider a three-pronged                                                                                        acquiring, matching,
    ers, out-of-date labour laws, a rising ratio                     approach. First, completely clear the Central and                     Cognitive skills are basic skills of literacy and              anticipating skills
    of wages to the price of capital and persis-                     State underbrush of policy distortions embed-                         numeracy, applied knowledge and problem-­
    tent informality are feeding on each other­— ­a                  ded in dysfunctional and out-of-date labour and                       solving aptitudes and higher cognitive skills                  Acquiring, imparting and assessing skills—requires
    self-perpetuating vicious cycle that results in                  industrial laws and regulations, many of them                         such as experimentation, reasoning and crea-                   change in K-12 education, vocational and tech-
    fewer good, formal jobs than India is capable                    hangovers from India’s famous licence raj and                         tivity. Technical and vocational skills are the                nical education and on-the-job training. Match-
    of and badly needs. Greater informality drives                   from earlier colonial times. Also ensure that                         physical and mental ability to perform specif-                 ing and adjusting skills—how best can job seekers
    poor skilling, employers choose machinery                        laws and regulations no longer impede convert-                        ic tasks using tools and methods in any occu-                  with low or high skills find productive work
    over men, and few good jobs are created, driv-                   ing informal to formal jobs. Formalisation will                       pation. Social and behavioural skills include                  and how can firms find workers with gener-
    ing India’s burgeoning labour force further into                 increase firms’ incentives to invest in upskilling                    working well with others, communicating well                   al and specialised skills. Anticipating and adapt-
    informality.                                                     their workers. It will also increase the workers’                     with others, listening well to others and gen-                 ing skills—the continuously evolving landscape
                                                                     incentives to remain skilled, besides providing                       erally being agreeable and outgoing. Everyone                  of jobs and shorter technology cycles require
                                                                     them with better working conditions and health                        has these skills to varying degrees. Combin-                   development of core skills that are transferable
                                                                     and social security benefits. Second, promote                         ing these types of skills gives foundational skills,           across roles. India can successfully create the
                                                                     public and private investments in sectors identi-                     employability skills and entrepreneurial skills.               self-reinforcing virtuous circle of acquiring–
                                                                     fied as most promising in generating jobs direct-                                                                                    matching–anticipating skills as suggested in this
                                                                     ly within that sector and indirectly across sec-                                                                                     Report, and in parallel create the economic and
                                                                     tors. Third, skill the workforce, covering both                                      Foundational skills                             social conditions for rapid, sustained economic
                                                                     existing and new workers, to match employers’                                                                                        growth. If it can do this in the next five years,
                                                                     needs and promote formal jobs. After suggest-                                                                                        there is no reason why its aspirations to provide
                                                                                                                                                                                   Technical
                                                                     ing a simple way for thinking about the types                                        Basic and                   and                 opportunity and well-being to millions of its
                                                                     of skills required, this report offers a frame-                                       higher                  vocational             citizens across the country cannot be realised.
                                                                                                                                                          cognitive
                                                                     work for skilling India—acquiring, matching                                                                                          Otherwise, with every passing year and each
                                                                     and anticipating skills—that can help break                                                                                          new generation that is not adequately skilled,
                                                                     the cycle of poor skilling and low job creation.                                                Social and                           the backlog of wasted opportunity and unmet
                                                                     There is no time to lose.                                                                      behavioural                           skill needs can only become larger, making
                                                                                                                                                                                                          catch-up increasingly difficult.

                                                                                                                                                          Employability skills
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         MATCH
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           &
                                                                                                                                                        Basic and         Technical
                                                                                                                                                         higher              and                                                         ADJUST
                                                                                                                                                        cognitive         vocational

                                  Slower                                                            Faster
                                  growth                                                           growth
                                 of good,                                                         of good,                                                      Social and
                                formal jobs                                                      formal jobs                                                   behavioural

        Higher cost                                                       Lower cost
          of skilled                                     Greater           of skilled                                       Less
          workers                                       workforce          workers                                       workforce
         relative to                                   informality        relative to                                   informality
                                                                                                                                                         Entrepreneurial skills
        capital costs                                                    capital costs

                                                                                                                                                       Basic and                       Technical
                                                                                                                                                        higher                            and
                                                                                                                                                       cognitive                       vocational
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 ACQUIRE                                       ANTICIPATE
                   More                                                             Fewer
               poorly-skilled
                                                  Lower
                                              incentives to
                                                                                poorly-skilled                    Greater
                                                                                                               incentives to                                                                                        &                                              &
                and fewer                                                         and more
                well-skilled
                                                acquire or
                                               impart skills
                                                                                 well-skilled                    acquire or
                                                                                                                impart skills                                 Social and                                         IMPART                                          ADAPT
                 workers                                                           workers
                                                                                                                                                             behavioural

                                                                                                                                                                                          From page 12.
                                                                                                                           From page 21.
x                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           xi
Skilling India No Time To Lose - NCAER
Acquiring skills—how best to impart them                                                                                                                                                   Matching skills—how best to adjust them
                      Required on the supply side of workers pro-                                                 demands. On-the-job training has to extend                                                     Required on the demand side of employers look-                                                                               and vocational systems are imparting knowl-
                      viding skills are essential changes in India’s                                              beyond large firms and be offered to workers                                                   ing for skills is having job seekers know how                                                                                edge through oral and rote learning, but not the
                      schooling and skilling system—the world’s                                                   in smaller firms and to informal workers. Indi-                                                they can find productive work with the skills                                                                                broad range of foundational, employability and
                      largest—in vocational education and in on-the-                                              an workers need to shift from lifetime employ-                                                 they have or should obtain, and having firms                                                                                 entrepreneurial skills needed for jobs. Along
                      job training. This also requires recognising and                                            ment to lifetime employability.                                                                know how they can find workers with the right                                                                                with job-specific knowledge and skills, firms
                      certifying the skills and prior learning of those                                              How best to turn India’s many disadvan-                                                     skills. Educational attainment may be increas-                                                                               seek innovation, complex social and emotion-
                      in the informal workforce. Not only does the                                                tages into advantages? By making sure that all                                                 ing, but high unemployment rates among the                                                                                   al, and psychomotor skills that the education
                      overall quality of schooling and training have                                              children are literate and numerate. By having                                                  educated signal significant problems for their                                                                               system does not easily supply. Educational and
                      to rise, but the content has to address the work-                                           the demand for skills from employers drive the                                                 employability. Even if workers read market sig-                                                                              skilling institutions need to work more closely
                      places of today—and tomorrow. General edu-                                                  supply of skills by workers. By providing the                                                  nals better and understood the skills needed of                                                                              with industry, through apprenticeships, train-
                      cation should impart social and behavioural                                                 full range of skills for becoming employed. By                                                 them better, the problem is that the education                                                                               ing on the job and recognising prior learning.
                      skills as well as basic and higher cognitive                                                ensuring that skills are transferable to other
                      skills, problem solving and systems thinking.                                               jobs and sectors. And by ramping up assess-
                      Vocational education should develop and revise                                              ments to know whether and what skills are
                      programmes nimbly to keep up with workplace                                                 being successfully imparted.

      FIGURE 2.3                                                                                                                                                                                                    TABLE 3.3 Mismatches between supply and demand
      Big numbers for India’s education and skilling ecosystem
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            SUPPLY OF SKILLS                                                                                                                       DEMAND FOR SKILLS

      2,000,000 Indian institutions imparting skills                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 HIRED WORKERS                                                ENTREPRENEURS AND SELF-EMPLOYED PERSONNEL

      300,000,000 Indians currently getting educated or                                         468,000,000 Indians now in jobs may                                                                                                                                                                                                       Medium-skilled
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Medium-high-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  skilled worker/   High-skilled worker/                     Self-employed        High-skilled,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   CEO/director/
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    opportunity
      skilled and will be looking for work                                                      (or may not) be acquiring skills on the job                                                                          Skills                                         Educational attainment
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Low-skilled
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     casual worker
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          operative/trade
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              worker
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     associate
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   professional
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     specialist trainer/
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       professional
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           High-skilled
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            manager
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          livelihood/necessity
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              entrepreneur
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 self-employed
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  professional
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   entrepreneur/
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     employer

                                 ACADEMIC                          TECHNICAL                    VOCATIONAL                                         ON THE JOB               EXAMPLES OF JOBS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Routine cognitive skills                       Primary and middle school education
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           ●                      ●                     ●                   ●                  ●                  ●                   ●                ●
                   Ages 24+      DOCTORATE                         DOCTORATE IN ENGINEERING                                                        MEDICAL RESIDENTS        SCIENTISTS
                                 126,500 enrolled                  30,600 enrolled                                                                 JUNIOR RESEARCH          ECONOMIC ADVISERS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Routine cognitive skills, ICT skills           Secondary education
                                                                                                                                                     FELLOWS                UNIVERSITY FACULTY
                                                                                                                                                                            ASTRONOMERS                              and language skills                                                                                   ●                      ●                     ●                   ●                  ●                  ●                   ●                ●
                                                                                                                                                                            POLICY EXPERTS

                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Routine cognitive skills, ICT and              Higher secondary education
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     language skills, financial literacy                                                                   ●                      ●                     ●                   ●                  ●                  ●                   ●                ●
                   Ages 22+      MASTER’S                          MASTER’S IN ENGINEERING      ADVANCED TRAINING       MASTER’S OF                                         ENGINEERS
                                                                                                                                                                            MANAGERS
                                 3,900,000 enrolled                257,000 enrolled             28 institutions         VOCATIONAL EDUCATION
                                                                                                                                                                            DATA ANALYSTS                            Routine cognitive, nonroutine cognitive        College education and above
                                                                                                350,000 have            Launched 2015,                                      TEACHERS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     skills, core socioemotional skills, ICT
                                                                                                enrolled since 2007     no data available as yet                            STOCK BROKERS
                                                                                                                                                                            JOURNALISTS                              skills, language skills, financial literacy                                                           ●                      ●                     ●                   ●                  ●                  ●                   ●                ●
                                                                                                                                                                            ARCHITECTS                               and knowledge and ability to apply
                                                                                                                                                                            LAWYERS

                   Ages 19–21    BACHELOR’S                        ENGINEERING COLLEGES         INDUSTRIAL TRAINING     BACHELOR’S OF              APPRENTICESHIP           JUNIOR ENGINEERS                         Routine cognitive skills, nonroutine           Technical education
                                                                                                                                                                            TECHNICIANS                              cognitive skills, ICT skills, financial
                                 800 universities                  3,200 colleges
                                 27,400,000 students               4,200,000 enrolled
                                                                                                AT ITIs                 VOCATIONAL EDUCATION
                                                                                                13,550 institutions 162 institutions
                                                                                                                                                   AND INTERNSHIPS
                                                                                                                                                   (2–4 year certificate)
                                                                                                                                                                            CONSTRUCTION
                                                                                                                                                                              SUPERVISORS                            literacy and knowledge and ability to                                                                 ●                      ●                     ●                   ●                  ●                  ●                   ●                ●
                                                                   POLYTECHNIC 3-YEAR DIPLOMA   1,200,000 enrolled 10,200 students                 2,400,000                OFFICE WORKERS                           apply, sector and job-specific skills
                                                                                                                                                                            TV CAMERA
                                                                   3,900 institutes                                     COMMUNITY COLLEGES         apprentices and            OPERATORS
                                                                   1,500,000 enrolled                                   157 colleges               interns
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Job-specific skills, one ICT skill, English    Short-term skilling programmes

                   Ages 17–18    HIGHER SECONDARY (Grades 11–12)                                VOCATIONAL HIGHER                                                           PLUMBERS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     language skills and some financial literacy                                                           ●                      ●                     ●                   ●                  ●                  ●                   ●                ●
                                                                                                                                                                            ELECTRICIANS
                                 112,600 institutions                                           SECONDARY
                                                                                                                                                                            CONSTRUCTION
                                 24,700,000 students                                            7,400 schools provide                                                         WORKERS                                Routine cognitive skills, knowledge and        Long-term skilling programmes
                                                                                                472,000 students                                                                                                     ability to apply and job-specific skills                                                              ●                      ●                     ●                   ●                  ●                  ●                   ●                ●
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    ●    Worker cannot supply the skills that the job demands.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    ●    Worker can perhaps supply the skills that the job demands with varying success ranging from barely to mostly.
                   Ages 15–16    SECONDARY (Grades 9–10)                                        VOCATIONAL SECONDARY                                                        TEXTILE WORKERS
                                                                                                                                                                            RETAIL CLERKS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    ●    Worker can fully supply the skills that the job demands.
                                 239,100 schools                                                108 schools provide                                                         HOSPITALITY                             Note: Red implies that there is demand for this but supply is limited, indicating a mismatch. Green indicates that there is a reasonable degree of match.
                                 39,100,000 students                                                                                                                          WORKERS
                                                                                                                                                                            BEAUTY THERAPISTS                       Yellow indicates that there is only a partial match. Black indicates that workers’ skills exceed what the job needs.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Source: NCAER, based on stakeholder consultations and literature reviews.

                   Ages 6–14     ELEMENTARY (Grades   1–8)                                                                                                                  LOW-SKILLED
                                                                                                                                                                             WORKERS
                                 1,450,000 schools
                                 196,716,500 students
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    From page 46.

                                                                                                                                                                                                 From page 14.

xii                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                xiii
Skilling India No Time To Lose - NCAER
Anticipating skills—how best to adapt them                                                                    India must get rich before it gets old
      Understanding how structural and technological         individuals—large firms need formal business           India’s working-age population is growing fast-        and save well. India then becomes rich before it
      changes in this 21st century are radically alter-      and accounting skills and high technological           er than its population of young and old depend-        becomes old; otherwise it will forfeit its demo-
      ing today’s workplace and the nature of work is        skills, and smaller firms need multitasking and        ents. The growing share of the workforce in the        graphic dividend.
      imperative. While India must deal with its large       adaptability to business practices. The 21st cen-      population can be a “demographic dividend”                The Indian policymaker’s first and foremost
      and persistent backlog of unskilled informal           tury Indian worker also needs transferable skills.     that can improve both social and economic              challenge, given this demographic opportu-
      workers, it must also provide for its future to sus-   Above all India needs to create an agile work-         outcomes, if the higher numbers of workers are         nity, is to spur economic growth that creates
      tain rapid progress. Firms of different sizes are      force that can anticipate and adapt to changes in      productively employed.                                 good jobs for new entrants to the job market
      already placing different skill requirements on        technology, automation and digitisation.                  The growing population share of the work-           and, at the same time, to ensure that these new
                                                                                                                    force is a demographic dividend that comes             workers have the right skills. A second, larg-
                                                                                                                    once in a nation’s life. This should raise the rate    er challenge comes from the massive number
                                                                                                                    of economic growth if the higher numbers of            of workers aged 30–59 who are already in the
                                                                                                                    workers are productively employed and earn             workforce but have to be reskilled or upskilled.

                                                                                                                                   80 dependents                                                                                   1950

        The Internet has                     Technological                      21st century jobs                                  per 20 workers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   1955

        changed how                          cycles are shorter                 will no longer                                         Working
                                                                                                                                      age (15–64)                                                                                  1960
                                                                                                                                        55.4%
        people connect                       than ever, and                     be confined to                                                                                                                                     1965
                                                                                                                                          POPULATION
        to work, with                        digital disruption                 task-specific                                                1965            65 and over                                                           1970
                                                                                                                                                             3.2%
        more workers                         is likely to recur                 roles. Instead,                                           Under 15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   1975

                                                                                                                                           41.4%
        using cloud                          with greater                       the demand for                                                                                                                                     1980

        computing, video                     frequency.                         multi­dimensional                                                                                                                                  1985

                                                                                                                                   50 dependents
        conferencing and                                                        skills will
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   1990
                                                                                                                                   per 50 workers                                   Dependent
                                                                                                                                                                                    population                                     1995
        other means to                                                          increasingly grow.                                     Working
                                                                                                                                      age (15–64)
                                                                                                                                        66.9%                                                                                      2000
        work anywhere,                                                                                                                                                                                                             2005

        anytime.                                                                                                                      POPULATION
                                                                                                                                         2020                                                                                      2010
                                                                                                                                                        65 and over
                                                                                                                                                        6.6%                                                                       2015
                                                                                                                                          Under 15
                                                                                                                                           26.6%
        Transferable                         Customer-                          The e-commerce                                                                                                                                     2020

        skills relevant                      facing jobs with                   sector could                                                                                                                                       2025

                                                                                                                                   46 dependents                                                                                   2030
        to multiple                          non‑routine                        create 14 million                                  per 54 workers
                                                                                                                                       Working                                                                                     2035
        workplaces are the                   interactive tasks                  jobs in logistics                                     age (15–64)
                                                                                                                                        68.4%                                                                                      2040
        key to promoting                     that depend on                     and delivery,                                                                                                                                      2045
                                                                                                                                      POPULATION
        workforce agility.                   soft skills can                    and 6 million in                                         2040
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Working-age                   2050

                                             be expected to                     customer care,                                      Under 15         65 and over
                                                                                                                                                                                                      population
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2055
                                                                                                                                     21.0%           10.6%
                                             grow. So can                       information                                                                                                                                        2060

                                             jobs depending                     technology and                                                                                                                                     2065

                                                                                                                                   69 dependents
                                             on higher                          management.                                        per 31 workers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2070

                                             cognitive skills.                                                                         Working
                                                                                                                                      age (15–64)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2075

                                                                                                                                        59.2%                                                                                      2080

                                                                                                                                      POPULATION                                                                                   2085
                                                                                                  From chapter 4.                        2100
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2090

                                                                                                                               Under 15      65 & over                                                                             2095
                                                                                                                                 25.9%        15.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2100
                                                                                                                                                                           0   10   20   30 40 50 60 70            80   90   100
                                                                                                                                                                                           Percent of population
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          From page 2.
xiv                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      xv
Skilling India No Time To Lose - NCAER
Get all stakeholders to work together…                                                                                India’s skilling challenge in numbers
      Given the time it takes to skill both existing        between these four key stakeholders to suc-
      and new workers, all stakeholders in the skill-       cessfully impart, match and anticipate skills for               ◆◆   Nearly 1.25 million new              ◆◆   Out of the more than
      ing space must work together to acquire, match        India in the 21st century. India needs a 15-year,                    workers aged 15–29 are projected          500 thousand final year
      and anticipate skills that India will need in the     2020–35 perspective plan focused on transfera-                       to join the workforce every month         bachelors students aged 18–29
      next two or three decades to generate good            ble skills that can meet demand from industries                      through 2022.                             who were surveyed, 54% were
      jobs for its rapidly expanding workforce. This        now and in the future. To prepare the plan the                                                                 found to be unemployable.
      imperative calls for distinct roles and respon-       government should establish a Commission for                    ◆◆   By 2022, India will have about
      sibilities for employers, for governments, for        21st Century Skills. This NCAER Report could                         47 million more people               ◆◆   2 million Indian institutions are
      training providers and for workers. And it            provide a framework for the terms of reference                       between the working ages of               imparting skills.
      calls for mutually reinforcing policies, actions,     for such a Commission.                                               19 to 59 than younger or older
      incentives and understanding among and                                                                                     people. This demographic             ◆◆   300 million Indians are
                                                                                                                                 dividend will peak in about 2040.         currently in educational
                                                                                                                                                                           institutions or acquiring vocational
                                                                                                                            ◆◆   The roughly 70 million workers            skills and will be eventually
                                                            Establish a Commission on 21st Century Skills
                                                            to prepare a 15-year perspective plan for
                                                                                                                                 entering the workforce between            looking for work.
                                                            2020–35                                                              2018 and 2022 will need to be
                                                                                                                                 skilled for a 21st century economy   ◆◆   Women’s labour force
                               Shift from necessity to
                                                            Improve the investment climate and the ease
                                                            of doing business                                                    if India is to keep pace with             participation was 21% in urban
                            opportunity entrepreneurs
                                                                                                                                 technological change.                     areas and 36% in rural.
                                                            Connect private and public stakeholders
                  Scale up to reap economies of scale
                                                            better
                                                                                                                            ◆◆   Many of the roughly                  ◆◆   Of rural and urban women aged
                   Provide in-service training for fresh
                  trainees, reskilling and upskilling for   Deregulate labour markets while
                                                                                                                                 468 million now in the                    15–29, 49% are neither part of
                                                              simultaneously providing social security
                            experienced workers
                                                                                                                                 workforce could be upskilled and          the labour force nor pursuing
               Adopt modern labour and                                     Focus on quality and inclusion
                                                                                                                                 reskilled­—­not easy because 92%          education, general or vocational.
             human resource practices
                                                            Go                  Prepare for the new face of                      are in the informal sector.
                                                        s     ve                                                                                                      ◆◆   Between 2005 and 2012,
                   Ensure corporate              er              r                manufacturing
               social responsibility           oy                    n
                                                                                                                                                                           15 million women dropped out
                                                                                                                            ◆◆   Slightly more than half of India’s
                                           pl

                                                                                    Commission ongoing,
                                                                     m

                                                                                                                                                                           of India’s labour force.
                                        Em

             Support employees
                                                                         en

           when employers have
                                                                                     regular, skill-related                      workers have school attainment
                                                                           ts

                                                                                      labour market research
              to retrench them                                                                                                   below secondary school with no       ◆◆   The share of female managers was
                                                                                                                                 vocational training.                      6% in computer manufacturing
                                                                                                                            ◆◆   Of India’s current workforce, 31%         and 12% in computer
                                                                                      Focus on employability—
                                                                                                                                 are illiterate, 13% have a primary        programming.
                                                                                      knowledge plus advanced
                                          W

                                                                       s

                                                                                                                                 education, and 6% are college
                                                                  id l
                                                                    er

                                              ke                                     cognitive, non-cognitive and/or
                                                                    il

                                                                  Sk
                                           or

                                                   rs                              technical and vocational skills                                                    ◆◆   The rural–urban male migration
                                                                    ov                                                           graduates.
                                                                 pr              Sharpen academic–industry mutual
                                                                                                                                                                           rates in India have been low at
                                                                              interaction                                   ◆◆   About 2% of the workforce has             around 4% in recent decades.
                                                                         Ensure flexibility in education and training            formal vocational training, and      ◆◆   68% of Indian SME businesses
                            Acquire transferable skills     Train students for a knowledge economy, with social                  9% have non-formal, vocational            are offline, and another 15% are
                                                            awareness
                                         Learn to learn                                                                          training.                                 digitally connected but not using
                         Pursue flexible employment,
                                                                                                                            ◆◆   There were approximately                  digital services. Only 2% marketed
                              not just lifetime careers                                                     From page 74.
                                                                                                                                 48 million workers in                     products or services online.
                                                                                                                                 construction and 16 million          ◆◆   Technology cycles are shorter than
                                                                                                                                 in textiles and apparel with no           ever, and digital disruption could
                                                                                                                                 vocational training.
                                                                …there’s no time to lose                                                                                   hit Indian workers hard: globally
                                                                                                                            ◆◆   The unemployment rate for                 75% of businesses expect that
                                                                                                                                 graduates aged 20–24 was 29%,             automation will require workers to
                                                                                                                                 for those 25–29, 12%, and for             develop new skills.
                                                                                                                                 those 30–34, 4%.                            Retrospective numbers are from NSSO 68th Round
                                                                                                                                                                             2014 (with data for 2011–12). Prospective numbers
                                                                                                                                                                             are from Ministry of Skills and Development 2015.
xvi                                                                                                                                                                                                                              xvii
1

                                The urgency of skilling India’s workforce
                                India’s economy is on the move­—­but its            challenge is all the more difficult because tech-
                                workforce has barely budged                         nology is changing the nature of work every-
                                                                                    where, eroding the low-wage advantage that
                                India has surpassed China as the world’s fast-      India could hope to enjoy in meeting domes-
                                est growing large economy. It has also moved        tic and global demand. India’s aspirations to
                                toward a knowledge economy, and more                become an economic superpower providing
                                broadly from agriculture to manufacturing and       opportunity to millions of its citizens cannot be
                                services, but for the most part the Indian work-    realised at this rate. Indeed, given India’s scale,
                                force has not changed. Indeed, policymakers,        just the frustrated aspirations of its youth can
                                educators, trainers and firms face daunting         cause social unrest and strife.
                                challenges in skilling India’s workforce to meet
                                the economy’s current and changing needs.
          MATCH                 • Many of the roughly 468 million now in the        More Indians of working age, with fewer
                                   workforce need to be upskilled and reskilled­    young and old dependent on them­—­a
            &                      —­not easy because 92% are in the informal1      demographic dividend or a curse?

          ADJUST                   sector, mostly outside the reach of formal
                                   skilling.2                                       India’s working-age population is growing fast-
                                • Of today’s workforce 31% are illiterate, 13%      er than its population of young and old depend-
                                   have only a primary education and only 6%        ents. The growing share of the workforce in the
                                   are college graduates. Further, only about       population can be a “demographic dividend”
                                   2% of the workforce have received formal         that can improve both social and economic
                                   vocational training while only 9% have           outcomes, if the higher numbers of workers are
                                   nonformal vocational training.3                  productively employed.
                                • The roughly 70 million new workers enter-            Not only is the ratio of young and old
                                   ing the workforce between 2018 and 2022          dependents to the working-age population
                                   need to be skilled for a 21st century econ-      dropping in India, but the trough in the trend
                                   omy.4 They may have completed second-            is projected to last longer than it did in other
                                   ary education, but many are not employ-          countries (figure 1.1). By 2022, India will
                                   able because their cognitive and technical       have about 47 million more people between
                                   skills are not up to par, and their social and   the working ages of 19 to 59, who are likely to
                                   behavioural skills are lacking.                  be skilled with no jobs within the country. In
                                   Between 2004 and 2011, data from the             addition nearly 1.25 million new workers­      —­
                                National Sample Surveys show, the Indian            aged 15–29­  —­ are projected to join the work-
ACQUIRE            ANTICIPATE   economy created only some 18.6 million jobs,        force every month through 2022.7 By the mid-

   &                   &        or about 2.7 million jobs a year, far too few for
                                the almost 15 million young adults projected
                                                                                    dle of this century, India will have a larger
                                                                                    working age population than China. This is a
IMPART               ADAPT      to enter the workforce each year over the next      vast potential, and the scale of economic activ-
                                five years.5 After 2011–12, various estimates       ity that these workers can generate if they are
                                suggest weak job growth.6 India’s economic          productively employed has been rarely seen in
                                growth over the past decade has for that reason     human history.
                                been called “jobless growth.” But India can ill        But if there are too few jobs, or not enough
                                afford to waste this vast human and econom-         good jobs,8 the dividend becomes a curse.
                                ic potential. With every passing year and each      As the young who form the population bulge
                                new generation that is not adequately skilled,      today get older in five to six decades, India will
                                the backlog of wasted opportunity and unmet         then have an aging population that has not
                                skill needs can only become larger, making          accumulated enough wealth and well-being to
                                catch-up increasingly difficult. Meeting the        be able to afford costly old-age care and medical

                                                                                                                                     1
As India’s birth rate falls, its working-age population grows faster than its population of young                                                                not only for high-skill workers but also for         sector, good jobs. Further complicating policy
and old dependents                                                                                                                                               medium-skill workers. For example in servic-         responses to these challenges are geograph-
The growing population share of the workforce is a demographic dividend that comes once in a nation’s life. This should                                          es, as NCAER’s research done for this report         ic differences that make centralised solutions
raise the rate of economic growth if the higher numbers of workers are productively employed and earn and save well.                                             shows, trade, hotels, restaurants, financing,        difficult.
India then becomes rich before it becomes old; otherwise it will forfeit its demographic dividend.                                                               communication, real estate and business activi-
                                                                                                                                                                 ties are creating substantial numbers of jobs for    Inadequately skilled workers
FIGURE 1.1 More workers mean fewer dependents                                                                                                                    high- and medium-skill workers both within
Share of population                                                                                                                                              and outside their sectors.11 In manufacturing,       Possibly the most important explanation for
                                                                                                                                                                 textiles, wood and wood products and furni-          low job creation in India is the lack of ade-
                                                                                                                                                                 ture and fixtures have the highest job-gener-        quately skilled workers. India is among the
           Working age (15–64)                    Working age (15–64)                         Working age (15–64)                  Working age (15–64)
                 55.4%                                  66.9%                                       68.4%                                59.2%                   ating potential for low and medium-skill work-       top five countries with the highest skill short-
                                                                                                                                                                 ers, both within their own sector and across         ages, with nearly two-thirds of firms (with 10
              POPULATION                             POPULATION                                 POPULATION                             POPULATION
                 1965                                   2020                                       2040                                   2100
                                                                                                                                                                 other sectors of the economy. Manufacturing          or more employees) surveyed recently by the
                                  65 and over
                                  3.2%                                                                                                                           sectors such as food processing, beverages and       Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
                                                                    65 and over
                Under 15                              Under 15
                                                                    6.6%
                                                                                               Under 15     65 and over           Under 15   65 & over           tobacco, leather products, nonmetallic miner-        Development (OECD) reporting difficulty find-
                 41.4%                                                                                      10.6%                  25.9%      15.0%
                                                                                                21.0%
                                                       26.6%
                                                                                                                                                                 al products and textiles can create direct and       ing qualified employees.15 Another survey had
            80 dependents                          50 dependents                              46 dependents                           69 dependents              indirect low-, medium- and high-skill jobs. The      nearly half of all employers reporting unfilled
            per 20 workers                         per 50 workers                             per 54 workers                          per 31 workers             challenge facing policymakers is to create the       job vacancies due to talent shortages.16 The scale   India is among
Percent                                                                                                                                                          investment climate and the supporting infra-         and impact of formal post-school education and       the top five
100
                                                                                                                                                                 structure and regulations that can allow these       training remains modest, with less than 3% of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           countries with
 90                                                                                                                                                              sectors to grow more rapidly.                        the workforce undergoing formal skill training,
 80
                                                                                                           Working-age
                                                                                                                                                                    India accounted for 25% of the world’s esti-      and only about 9% acquiring skills through           the highest
 70
                                                                                                            population                                           mated 7.5 million bachelors in science and           informal modes (apprenticeships and on-the-job       skill shortages
 60
                                                                                                                                                                 engineering in 2014.12 No wonder the world’s         training). A small share of workers get on-the-
                                                                                                                                                                 leading tech companies have their largest oper-      job training in-house while the vast majority of
 50
                                                                                                                                                                 ations in India. Yet, as the Economist magazine      informal sector workers have no access to for-
 40
                                                                                                                                                                 notes, even as “India’s labour force will soon       mal training. Over the years the government
 30                                                 Dependent                                                                                                    overtake China’s as the world’s largest...the        has introduced several schemes to deliver and
                                                    population
 20                                                                                                                                                              country is struggling to generate opportunities      upgrade skills through a formal technical and
 10                                                                                                                                                              for a workforce with the wrong skills.”13 The        vocational education and training system. And
    0                                                                                                                                                            2015 Policy of the Ministry of Skill Develop-        efforts have been stepped up through such initi-
    1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100
                                                                                                                                                                 ment and Entrepreneurship notes, “our coun-          atives as Skill India and Make in India.
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2017 Revision of World Population Prospects, data acquired at website.   try presently faces a dual challenge of paucity
                                                                                                                                                                 of highly trained workforce, as well as non-em-      Rigid labour laws
 Spur economic                                                                                                                                                   ployability of large sections of the convention-
                                 expenditures. To put it simply, to attain its                   India’s recent rapid GDP growth. But their share                ally educated youth, who possess little or no job    India’s employment protection legislation is
       growth that               rightful place and realise its aspirations, India               in overall employment is less than 2%. They                     skills.”14 This is India’s skilling paradox: dwin-   among the world’s most rigid.17 An example is
      creates good               must become rich before it gets old.                            produce more with less labour (their labour pro-                dling opportunities in agriculture and lots of       the prohibition of layoffs under the Industrial
                                    The Indian policymaker’s first and foremost                  ductivity is about 5–10 times higher than in the                potential for jobs in manufacturing and servic-      Disputes Act, 1947, which requires a company
      jobs for new
                                 challenge, given this demographic opportu-                      overall economy), and they are generating jobs                  es, but not enough people with the right skills.     with more than 100 employees to get approv-
    entrants to the              nity, is to spur economic growth that creates                   mostly for high-skill workers. In general these                                                                      al from the appropriate government authority
          job market             good jobs for new entrants to the job market                    services are more skill-demanding than manu-                                                                         for laying off even a single employee. Small
                                 and, at the same time, to ensure that these new                 facturing and have high labour productivity, and                Why does India have economic growth                  wonder that manufacturing industries in India
          and ensure             workers have the right skills. A second, larg-                  therefore services are an unlikely destination for              without jobs?                                        use more capital-intensive technologies than
 that these new                  er challenge comes from the massive number                      low-skill job seekers.10                                                                                             industries in other countries at comparable lev-
                                 of workers aged 30–59 who are already in the                       India has a range of other service and man-                  India’s unusual pattern of “jobless” economic        els of development.18
      workers have
                                 workforce but have to be reskilled or upskilled.9               ufacturing industries that can generate a lot                   growth, remarkable in a country destined to be          Highly capital-intensive production meth-
    the right skills                                                                             of good jobs, both directly and through ripple                  the world’s most populous, is the result of both     ods may be one response to India’s rigid
                                                                                                 effects in related industries, but these have not               supply and demand factors. On the supply side        labour market regulations that make labour
                                 High-growth sectors are not creating jobs                       been growing fast enough. Every sector in an                    there is an inadequate supply of skilled work-       expensive (when adjusted for its productivity)
                                 in those sectors                                                economy has consumption and production                          ers. On the demand side three key factors­—­         and prompt firms to substitute machinery for
                                                                                                 linkages with other sectors and therefore has                   India’s inflexible and archaic labour laws, the      labour. Another response may be the grow-
                                 A key challenge is that India’s high growth sec-                the potential to generate jobs not just directly                low relative cost of capital compared to labour      ing incidence of contracting in the Indian
                                 tors are not generating direct jobs. Sectors such               but also indirectly­— ­i n other sectors and among              and the overwhelming level of informality in         labour market and the consequent decline in
                                 as business services and information technology–­               firms of different sizes. Even within services                  manufacturing and services­    —­constrain the       labour intensity in organised manufacturing,
                                 enabled services are contributing substantially to              some sectors have high job-generating potential                 rapid creation of jobs, particularly of formal       since contract labour does not show up in the

2                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            3
muster roll meant for a company’s permanent                         in the real interest rate. The low relative price
                                                                                                                                                         FIGURE 1.3
                     employees. In manufacturing both capital-in-                        of capital is exacerbated by improvements in                    India’s 468 million jobs: From baskets to bytes
                     tensive production methods and contracting                          technology and automation, which are displac-
                     can be blamed for slow employment growth                            ing labour as firms try to stay competitive.
                     in large-scale, labour-intensive manufacturing                                                                                                                                                            BYTES
                     industries.                                                         Mostly informal jobs even outside agriculture,                                                                                       High skill
                        Illustrating the prevalence of contracting,                      poor working conditions for women, and a slow
                     the concentration of regularly employed work-                       shift from informal to formal jobs                                                            15% in Manufact
                                                                                                                                                                                                       u                    ring
                     ers is highest (27%) in small firms with 50 or
                     fewer workers, and the concentration of con-                        The informal employment share in nonagri-
                     tract workers is highest (21%) in large firms                       cultural activities is exceedingly large in India.
                                                                                                                                                                                     27%
                                                                                                                                                                                                 in S
                     with 1,000 or more workers and in firms with                        Furthermore, sectors that have high informal-                                          10                     er v
                                                                                                                                                                                                           ices
                     201 to 500 workers (figure 1.2). For small and                      ity employ a sizable portion of female infor-                                             %
                     medium firms with 200 or fewer workers, the                         mal workers with low wages and poor working                                                   in
                     concentration of regularly employed workers                         conditions. The informal employment share                                                          Co

                                                                                                                                                                    49%
                                                                                                                                                                                              ns
                     is 55%, but for medium and large firms with                         in nonagricultural activities is as high as 84%,                                                         tr
                                                                                                                                                                                                    uc
                     more than 200 workers, the concentration of                         and the share of female informal employment                                                                     tio
            Firms                                                                                                                                                                                             n

                                                                                                                                                                        in A
                     contract workers is 55%. Contracting is thus                        close to 85%. Among individual nonagricultur-

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 al
       have been     more prevalent in larger firms reflecting the                       al activities­— ­such as transportation, construc-

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               rm
                                                                                                                                                                         gri
                     employers’ response wanting to circumvent                           tion, trade, manufacturing and services other

                                                                                                                                                                           cul

                                                                                                                                                                                                                             fo
      substituting
                     rigid labour laws.                                                  than trade or transportation­     —­ the numbers

                                                                                                                                                                               tur

                                                                                                                                                                                                                         %
    machinery for                                                                        look similar. For example the informal employ-

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      l/8
                                                                                                                                                                                e
      labour due     Low cost of capital relative to labour                              ment shares in construction and trade are the                                                                                  a
                                                                                         highest at a little over 97%. In construction the                                                                            rm
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    fo
     to the lower    For organised Indian manufacturing the ratio                        female informal employment share is 99%, and                                                                             in
                                                                                                                                                                                                     %
     relative cost   of the real wage to the real rental price of cap-
                     ital has been steadily increasing over the past
                                                                                         in trade 98%. Similarly in manufacturing 87%
                                                                                         of employment is informal, with the female
                                                                                                                                                                                                   92
        of capital   few decades, more steeply since the late 1990s                      informal employment share at 94%.20
                     (figure 1.4).19 This increase can explain the                          Most new jobs in the economy’s informal
                     declining labour intensity in organised man-                        sectors have extremely low productivity. And
                     ufacturing in India: firms have been substi-                        the transition of India’s labour force from                        BASKETS
                     tuting machinery for labour due to the lower                        small, unregistered firms in the informal sec-                     Low skill
                     relative price of capital. The drop in the rela-                    tors to small, medium and large formal firms
                     tive effective cost of capital can be attributed to                 has been slow (see figure 1.3). Rigid labour
                     an increase in real wages and a decline in the                      laws and poor infrastructure impede the pace
                     rental price of capital (due to the fall in the rel-                of transition from informal to formal jobs. So,
                     ative price of capital goods), rather than a fall                   what’s needed?

                     FIGURE 1.2 More regular employees in smaller firms—more contract workers in larger firms

                                             Regular employees                                            Contract workers

                                                                                                                       50 or less
                                         1,001 or more
                                             18%               50 or less
                                                                                                   1,001 or more        16%
                                                                 27%                                   21%
                                    501–1,000                                                                                   51–100
                                     10%                                                        501–1,000                       14%
                                                                   51–100
                                                                                                 13%
                                         201–500                   13%                                                     101–200
                                         17%                                                                201–500         15%
                                                       101–200
                                                       15%                                                  21%

                     Note: Left side: Employee distribution by factory size of regular employees. Right side: Employee distribution by factory size of
                     contract workers. Data are for 2012–13.
                     Source: Economic Outlook, Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy.
4                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          5
FIGURE 1.4 Ratio of wages/rental price of capital in organised Indian manufacturing                                                       share of the school-age population in school is      result is fewer formal jobs than India is capable
                                                                                                                                                                 slipping. One report estimates that Bihar alone      of and badly needs (figure 1.5).
                       25,000
                                                                                                                                                                 has around 1.2 million out-of-school 6–13               This report addresses the key challenge of
                                                                                                                                        Labour-intensive         year-old children, some 20% of the total out-        how India can break out of this vicious cycle
                                                                                                                                          sectors only
                                                                                                                                                                 of-school children in India.23                       and move to a virtuous cycle in which good
                       20,000
                                                                                                                                                                    Policymakers should thus adopt a decen-           jobs can lead to better skilled workers who can          This report
                                                                                                                                                                 tralised approach for skilling and job creation      be employed in more and better jobs.                     addresses the
                                                                                                                                                                 and for coordinating and monitoring state, dis-
                       15,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  key challenge
                                                                                                                                                                 trict and block initiatives. For this they should    Creating a virtuous cycle of acquiring, matching
                                                                                                                                                All industries   annually map skills and sectoral priorities          and anticipating skills                                  of how India
                                                                                                                                                                 across all Indian states, a task requiring new                                                                can break out
                       10,000
                                                                                                                                                                 synergies and cooperative efforts between poli-      Simply put India can break the cycle of poor
                                                                                                                                                                 cymakers and executing agencies at the Centre        skilling and low job creation by ensuring that           from a low
                                                                                                                                                                 and their state counterparts.                        adequate job growth accompanies economic                 skilling vicious
                         5,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      growth and ensuring that the workforce has
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      the necessary skills to be employable in the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               cycle and move
                              0
                                                                                                                                                                 Escaping the vicious cycle                           jobs thus created. This requires acknowledging           to a virtuous
     Formalisation                1980– 1982– 1984– 1986– 1988– 1990– 1992– 1994– 1996– 1998– 2000– 2002– 2004– 2006– 2008–                                                                                           the following underlying mismatches and mar-
                                    81   83    85    87    89     91   93    95     97   99     01   03    05    07    09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               circle in which
increases firms’                                                                                                                                                 So why has more progress not been made in            ket distortions that constrain creating jobs and
                       Note: The figure plots the ratio of real wages to the rental price of capital, for all industries and only labour-intensive sectors in    dealing with India’s skills and jobs challenge?      skilling the workforce:                                  good jobs can
         incentives
                       organised Indian manufacturing.                                                                                                           The combination of inadequately skilled work-        • The broken link between industry and the               lead to better
        to invest in   Source: Sen and Das 2014.                                                                                                                 ers, out-of-date labour laws, the rising ratio of       education and training systems.
                                                                                                                                                                 wages to the cost of capital and persistent infor-   • Inefficient or missing markets for skills.             skilled workers
    upskilling their
                          Conceptually the answer is clear: free up                           Geographic differences                                             mality are feeding on each other and result-         • The lack of on-the-job-training, especially in         who can be
      workers and      informal workers (many of them female),                                                                                                   ing in a self-perpetuating vicious cycle whose          smaller firms but also in many large firms.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               employed
     workers’ own      skill them based on industry requirements                              Complicating these policy responses is India’s
                       and deploy them in a rapidly growing for-                              geographic and cultural diversity. Different                                                                                                                                     in more and
      incentives to    mal sector. Efficiency is higher in the formal                         states will realise the demographic dividend at                    FIGURE 1.5                                                                                                    better jobs
    remain skilled     sector, costs are lower and profit margins are                         different times, with India’s peninsular states                    The vicious cycle of low skills and few good jobs—a low skilling trap
                       bigger, all translating into greater job-gener-                        peaking sooner than its hinterland states.21
                       ating potential. Formalisation increases firms’                        The proportion of the workforce to be skilled
                       incentives to invest in upskilling their work-                         and to be reskilled is also unevenly distributed
                       ers. It also increases the workers’ own incen-                         across peninsular and hinterland states. And
                       tives to remain skilled, besides providing them                        the starting points vary across states­— ­i n school
                       with better working conditions and health and                          infrastructure, student-teacher ratios, general                                                                                              Slower
                       social security benefits.                                              and vocational education levels, school dropout                                                                                              growth
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          of good,
                          Putting this into practise and staying the                          rates and workforce participation in formal and                                                                                            formal jobs
                       course is surely one of the most important                             informal jobs and in industry and services.
                       and difficult policymaking and political econ-                            The more advanced peninsular states­— ­such
                       omy challenges facing India (see figure 1.3).                          as Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Maharashtra and                                                                         Higher cost
                       Again, simply put, in these circumstances pol-                         Tamil Nadu­—­need policies for upskilling and                                                                        of skilled                                      Greater
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   workers                                        workforce
                       icymakers need to consider a three-pronged                             reskilling those already in the prime working
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  relative to                                    informality
                       approach. First, completely clear the central-                         ages 30–59 and for matching them with the                                                                          capital costs
                       and state-level underbrush of policy distortions                       industries that are growing fast and undergo-
                       that are embedded in dysfunctional and out-of-                         ing structural and technological changes. They
                       date labour and industrial laws and regulations,                       must also of course cater to new workers enter-
                       many of them hangovers from India’s famous                             ing the workforce. And they need to anticipate
                       licence raj and from earlier colonial times. Also                      the skills needed later in this 21st century.
                       ensure that laws and regulations no longer                                The less advanced hinterland states­      —­ such                                                                          More
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Lower
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        poorly-skilled
                       impede converting informal to formal jobs. Sec-                        as Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Uttar                                                                                                              incentives to
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         and fewer
                       ond, promote public and private investments in                         Pradesh­ —­need policies to ensure effective                                                                                                               acquire or
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         well-skilled
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        impart skills
                       sectors identified as most promising in generat-                       absorption of new entrants (15–29) to the                                                                                   workers
                       ing jobs directly within that sector and indirect-                     labour force.22 The key in those states is skilling
                       ly across sectors. Third, skill the workforce, cov-                    the new entrants and setting sectoral priorities
                       ering both existing and new workers, to match                          that ensure young workers’ absorption in the
                       employers’ needs and promote formal jobs.                              workforce. This will not be easy. In Bihar the

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