Shale gas Still a boon to US manufacturing?
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Shale gas
Still a boon to US manufacturing?
December 2014
With contribution from
National Association
of Manufacturers and The
American Chemistry Council
At a glance
US shale gas development
is maturing swiftly. Its
momentous growth is not
only changing the country’s
energy mix, and affecting
energy markets globally. It’s
also giving US manufacturing
a boost through significant
cost savings and jobs creation,
according to a PwC analysis.Introduction
Shale gas activity in the US has taken root in the last several years, and
its effects on the country’s energy mix and energy independence have
progressed beyond prognostication and shaped new realities. The ‘shale
effect’ on manufacturing, too, is taking shape—making the US a more
attractive locale due to relatively low energy and feedstock costs. This
report takes a look at what shale gas has meant for US manufacturing
and what may lie on the horizon.
The surge in shale gas production and So, what does this all mean for
Shale gas revisited consumption in the US has proven a US manufacturing? According to
genuine game changer on a number a new analysis by PwC, shale gas
of fronts including: strengthening US development could have the following
energy security and independence, impacts on US manufacturing overall:
and helping trigger a resurgence in
• Annual cost savings of $22.3 billion
US manufacturing.
in 2030 and $34.1 billion in 2040.
Indeed, natural gas has altered
• 930,000 shale gas-driven
the energy landscape in ways few
manufacturing jobs created by
would have foreseen just five years
2030 and 1.41 million by 2040.
ago. Consider just a few milestones
reached in large part due to domestic The most likely beneficiaries in a
shale gas and oil activity. The US scenario of continued low natural
overtook Russia as the world’s largest gas prices and high yields include
natural gas producer in 20101, and energy-intensive manufacturing
is projected to surpass Saudi Arabia sectors such as metals, as well as those
and Russia as the global leader in oil sectors—most notably chemicals
production by 2015, according to the and petrochemicals—which use
International Energy Agency(IEA).2 natural gas as a feedstock. This
Meanwhile, 84% of the country’s report highlights major developments
energy demand was met through in the US shale gas industry and
domestically produced energy in 2013, analyzes potential impacts on the US
up from 69% in 2005,3 as natural gas manufacturing sector.
prices in the US fell some 75% over
the same period. The US now eyes real
prospects of becoming a significant
exporter of liquefied natural gas.
1 International Energy Agency statistical database, retrieved on September 22, http://www.iea.org/
statistics/statisticssearch/report/?country=USA&product=naturalgas&year=2010.
2 “U.S. to Be Top Oil Producer by 2015 on Shale, IEA Says”, November 12, 2013.
3 “Domestic production satisfies 84% of total U.S. energy demand in 2013”, retrieved on US Energy
Information Agency. http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=16511, June 2, 2014.
1 Shale gas: Still a boon in US manufacturing?US production surges on
Shale gas fueling Shale gas production has continued of total US natural gas production.4
America’s rise to rise unabated over the last several The EIA (US Energy Information
years. With extraction of US (and Administration) also estimates
as global energy Canadian) shale-derived fossil fuels that shale gas represents 32% of all
powerhouse being carried out quickly and in high technically recoverable wet natural
volume, shale gas persists to change gas in the US.5 Since 2007, shale gas
the face of North American energy production and proven reserves have
mix. Shale resources comprise 29% of risen steadily (see charts).
total US crude oil production and 40%
Figure 1: US shale gas proved reserves and production, 2007-2012
What is shale gas (Billion Cubic Feet)
and fracking?
131,616 10,371
129,396
Hydraulic fracturing (fracking) is a
technology for extracting trapped
natural gas or oil through the 97,449 7,994
fracturing of shale rock formations
to increase the flow of the natural
5,336
gas or oil, thereby enabling greater 60,644
amounts to be recovered. The
3,110
wells are either drilled vertically 34,428
23,304 2,116
or horizontally and can be done
1,293
to depths of thousands of feet.
Fractures are produced by injecting
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
fluids (containing water, proppant
such as sand or ceramic pellets, and Proved Reserves Production
chemicals) at high pressure into
shale fractures, which are enlarged, Source: “US Crude Oil and Natural Gas Proved Reserves, 2012” EIA, April 2014.
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/res_epg0_r5301_nus_bcfa.htm
then kept open by the proppant.
After the natural gas is extracted
to the surface, a ‘fracking’ fluid (or
so-called ‘flowback’ or ‘produced Figure 2: Staying low: US natural gas prices 2004-2014
water’, a cocktail of water, sand and Industrial prices at July of each year, (US Dollars per Thousand Cubic Feet)
the injected chemicals) then rises to
16
the surface through the wellbore,
and is either treated or disposed of.
12
Hydraulic fracturing requires much
more water for deeper wells than
8
conventional natural gas drilling.
4
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: US Energy Information Administration database,
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_pri_sum_dcu_nus_m.htm
4 Shale oil and shale gas resources are globally abundant, January 2, 2014, EIA website,
http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=14431.
5 “Technically recoverable shale oil and shale gas resources: an assessment of 137 shale formations in 41
countries outside the United States,” EIA, June 2013.
2Eyes now cast toward …and on exporting shale Energy infrastructure
exporting LNG… gas know-how build-out also likely to
Prospects of the US growing into a A number of countries have begun to benefit manufacturers
significant exporter of LNG (liquefied examine the production potential of In addition to the shale-linked
natural gas) have grown, with a shale formations in their countries. benefits to manufacturers discussed
rising pool of companies applying for Poland, for example, has leased out thus far, manufacturers could also
permits to export. The Department of shale lands and has drilled 43 test benefit from the considerable volume
Energy, Office of Fossils Energy, had shale gas wells as of 2013. Argentina, of infrastructure (e.g., machinery,
received 44 applications to export Australia, China, England, Mexico, turbines, pipes) required to meet
domestically produced LNG from the Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey natural gas demand—not only in
lower 48 states as of October 21, 2014.6 have also explored the potential in the US, but also in other countries—
As of October 2014, FERC (Federal their shale formations.9 With rising to ramp up their own natural
Energy Regulatory Commission) had global interest in exploiting this gas development. Manufacturers
approved four LNG export projects resource, exporting hydraulic drilling supplying products needed for the
with 14 additional LNG export projects know-how, technology, and hardware continued build-up of infrastructure
proposed to FERC.7 could present significant opportunities required for the extraction and
for US energy and oil and gas services distribution of shale gas (not to
The timing for US exporters could
companies and manufacturers that mention the infrastructure needed
likely be very good. Consider that
supply them. for exporting LNG in high volume)
32% of China’s natural gas consumed
will likely be chief beneficiaries of
in 2013 was imported, up from 2% Take China’s push to build a domestic
the shale gas boom. Just consider, for
in 2006, according to the EIA. The shale gas industry. While its natural
example, that in 2013 alone, North
country, which is keen on increasing gas production has tripled since 2003,
America constructed (or planned
its use of natural gas, presently has its foray into shale gas has fallen short
for construction of) 41,810 miles
10 regasification terminals. In 2012, of expectations, despite having the
of pipeline.12
it was the third-largest natural gas world’s highest technically recoverable
importer behind Japan and South shale gas reserves.10 In 2013, China
Korea. In 2013, it imported 870 billion became the world’s third-biggest
cubic feet (Bcf) of LNG, with 2014 natural gas consumer, following the
imports forecast to be even stronger.8 US and Russia, and the International
Energy Agency predicts China’s
consumption will nearly double by
2019. Due to difficult geology and high
extraction costs, however, the country
recently nearly halved its 2020 target
for domestically developed shale gas.11
6 “Summary of LNG Export Applications” US Department of Energy Fossil Energy Office, website retrieved
on November 7, 2014, http://energy.gov/fe/downloads/summary-lng-export-applications-lower-48-states.
7 FERC Authorizes Construction of Cove Point Export Project,” Docket No. CP13-113-000, FERC website,
September 29, 2014; http://www.ferc.gov/industries/gas/indus-act/lng/lng-export-proposed.pdf.
8 “Natural gas serves a small, but growing portion of China’s total energy demand,” US Energy Information
Administration, August 18, 2014.
9 Shale oil and shale gas resources are globally abundant, January 2, 2014, EIA website, http://www.eia.
gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=14431.
10 “Natural gas serves a small, but growing, portion of China’s total energy demand,” EIA, August 18, 2014.
11 Orcutt, Mike, “China’s Shale Gas Bust,” August 12, 2014.
12 Rita Tubb, “Pipeline & Gas Journal’s 2013 Worldwide Construction Report,” Pipeline & Gas Journal,
January 2013, Vol. 240 No. 1.
3 Shale gas: Still a boon in US manufacturing?Our analysis for this report looked at We estimated, based on our model,
Continued low shale how low natural gas prices (largely annual cost savings of $22.3 billion
due to increased shale gas resources) in 2030 and $34.1 billion in 2040,
gas prices could save could translate into cost savings for assuming a high natural gas recovery
US manufacturers US manufacturers through benefits of and low-price scenario were to persist13
over $22 billion using natural gas as an energy source (see chart). Cost savings benefits could
and as feedstock for manufacturing potentially be higher if the elasticity of
by 2030 (with chemicals industry). While demand is included. These potential
manufacturers could also naturally savings are up markedly from a similar
benefit from the incremental demand analysis carried out by PwC in 2011,
for products needed to extract natural which estimated that manufacturers
gas, this benefit was not included in could save up to $11.6 billion annually
our analysis. by 2025 and $11.2 billion by 2035 in a
high-recovery, low-price scenario.14
In the low shale recovery case (i.e.,
Figure 3: Natural gas/US manufacturing cost sensitivity analysis 50% less gas is recovered from each
Total US manufacturers estimated annual natural gas expenses under high and low
shale formation vs. the reference
shale gas recovery/price scenarios ($ billion)
case), natural gas costs for the
$70 manufacturing sector could increase
91% to $46.7 billion, in 2030, and by
60.28 130% to $60.3 billion, in 2040.
$60
$34.06 bil. est.
annual savings
$50
46.66
$22.33 bil. est.
$40 annual savings
$30
26.22
24.33
$20
15.74
$10
$2.75*/mil $4.25*/mil $8.15*/mil $4.58*/mil $10.53*/mil
Btu Btu Btu Btu Btu
$0
2012 2030 2040
High recovery/low price Low recovery/high price *Avg. wellhead price
Source: EIA, PwC Analysis
13 Note: To arrive at these estimates, we used the annual volume of natural gas consumed by manufacturers
from the most recent Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS) and estimates of future
wellhead gas prices under reference, low and high shale gas recovery scenarios. The most recent MECS
indicates that US manufacturers used 5,725 trillion Btu of natural gas (not including natural gas liquids, or
NGLs) during 2010 for all purposes.
14 “Shale gas: A renaissance in US manufacturing?” PwC, 2011.
4We also looked at how shale gas was In particular, we looked at two ways in
Shale gas spurring impacting manufacturers through which companies describe such a shale
the lens of public disclosures by gas impact: 1) as a source for growth
US manufacturing executives in a survey of SEC filings for in demand for their products, and 2) as
growth US chemicals, metals, and industrial a feedstock and/or energy benefit. Our
manufacturers. Our survey found analysis showed that, over the period
a continued rise in the number surveyed, roughly half attributed the
of companies commenting to the potential impact of shale gas activity
investment community about the on their business as a source of
potential for shale gas activity to affect downstream demand, and about half
their business. In 2013, we found noted the feedstock/energy benefit
that 40 US manufacturing companies (see chart).
included shale gas impacts in their
public filings, up from 15 in 2011 that
we found in a previous PwC analysis.15
Figure 4: Manufacturers’ public disclosure of shale gas impact
Number of companies disclosing shale gas impact in SEC filings (2008-2013)
45
40
35
30 21
25
20 20
20
15
10 10 19
5 11
9
2 5
0 1 1
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source of downstream demand Feedstock/energy cost benefit
Source: Company SEC filings and PwC analysis
15 “Shale gas: A renaissance in US manufacturing?” PwC, 2011.
5 Shale gas: Still a boon in US manufacturing?Which manufacturing Chemicals sector benefiting Power costs for US
sectors stand to from affordable feedstock industrial sector forecast
benefit most? Beyond recognizing the benefits of to remain stable
We expect chemicals and low natural gas prices, manufacturers Industrial natural gas prices have fallen
metals companies may be the are making moves to take advantage. considerably over the last decade (see
greatest beneficiaries among US The American Chemistry Council, for chart). Continued low-price scenario
manufacturers. Chemical companies example, reports that as of September could, as our analysis indicates, hold
are benefiting from the affordable 2014, it had identified 197 chemicals important implications in cost savings
feedstock and low natural gas and plastics projects (new plants, for manufacturers. Going forward,
prices, which are helping drive expansions or processes) in the electricity costs for the US industrial
investments in expansions and new US—tied to relatively inexpensive sector are forecast to increase annually
facilities by companies in this sector. natural gas from shale formations— by an average of just 0.8% through
Metals companies and industrial that are worth roughly $125 billion 2040, when 35% of electricity is
manufacturers are benefiting from in potential new investment. The forecast to be generated by gas-fired
the rising demand for products and Council estimates that this new power plants, up from 16% in 2000,
equipment needed for the extraction, investment—of which 64 percent according to the EIA (see chart).
distribution, storage, and processing is from companies based outside
of natural gas. Energy-intensive the US—could potentially create
manufacturing sectors, such as metals over 700,000 jobs by 2023. Most of
and cement, may continue to benefit the projects identified are aimed at
from relatively low energy prices. increasing production of ethylene, and
ethylene derivatives.16
Figure 5: US electricity generation by fuel, 1990-2040
(trillion kilowatt hours per year)
History 2012 Projections
6
5
“Thanks to the shale
35%
gas production boom, Natural gas
4
the United States is the
16% 30%
most attractive place
3 9% Renewables 16%
in the world to invest in 12%
19%
chemical and plastics Nuclear 16%
2 19%
manufacturing. It’s
an astonishing gain in 52%
1 Coal
competitiveness.”17 37% 32%
3%
1% Oil and other liquids 1%
Cal Dooley 0
ACC President and CEO 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Source: “AEO2014 Early Release Overview” EIA, http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/er/early_elecgen.cfm
16 “U.S. Chemical Investment Linked to Shale Gas Reaches $100 Billion,” American Chemistry Council
press release, February 20, 2014.
17 Ibid.
6According to a PwC analysis, we Marcellus basin and Gulf Coast, where
Expected natural estimate that the continued shale natural gas prices tend to be lower
gas activity in the US will translate because of the lower gas distribution
gas effect on into new manufacturing jobs growth, costs. [Please note: The regression
manufacturing jobs: contributing 930,000 shale gas-driven model used to arrive at these estimates
1.41 million by 2040 jobs by 2030 and 1.41 million by 2040. is the same used in our 2011 model,
These estimates are comparable to using estimates for natural gas prices
estimates we carried out in a 2011 under high and low scenarios.]
study (1.31 million jobs in 2025 and
We must note that these estimates
1.08 million in 2035).18 Indeed, shale-
do not include possible jobs growth
driven jobs growth has already taken
from likely LNG exports, the potential
root. A report from the US Conference
development of which is still unclear.
of Mayors found that energy-intensive
It is interesting to note, however, that
manufacturing sectors added over
the American Petroleum Institute
196,000 jobs from 2010-2012 in the
has estimated that LNG exports will
country’s metro areas alone, with
generate between 7,800 and 76,800
inexpensive natural gas being a main
net jobs between 2016 and 2035,
driver.19 We see pockets of higher
mostly in the manufacturing sectors
job growth existing in the regions of
tied to refining, petrochemicals,
shale gas production, particularly the
and chemicals.20
Figure 6: Natural gas/US manufacturing employment sensitivity analysis
Estimated change in US manufacturing employment under high and low shale
recovery/price scenarios
0.93 mil. est. benefit 1.41 mil. est. benefit
to employment to employment
$2.75*/mil. $4.25*/mil $8.15*/mil $4.58*/mil $10.53*/mil
Btu Btu Btu Btu Btu
2010 2030 2040
High recovery/low price Low recovery/high price *Avg. wellhead price
Source: BLS, EIA, PwC Analysis
18 “Shale gas: A renaissance in US manufacturing?” PwC, 2011.
19 “Impact of the Manufacturing Renaissance from Energy Intensive Sources,” US Conference of Mayors,
March 20, 2014.
20 “US LNG Exports: Impacts on Energy Markets and the Economy,” ICF, API, May 2013.
7 Shale gas: Still a boon in US manufacturing?Shale gas wild cards to watch
Our estimates are based in part on Insufficient natural gas 349 public natural gas filling stations
forecasts of natural gas supplies refueling infrastructure in the US (291 compressed natural
and production supplied by the gas and 58 liquefied natural gas), a
There still exists the need for the US to
IEA. However, there exist other pittance compared to the nation’s some
accelerate its natural gas distribution
developments and trends that signal, 120,000 gasoline filling stations.21,22
infrastructure in order for natural
or potentially could result in, reduced
gas prices to be competitive through
benefits of shale gas development Redrawing shale gas tax
the country, rather than lower prices
to US manufacturers. Below are policies: have energy MLPs
tending to occur in areas closest
some such developments important reached their shelf life?
to shale gas production (i.e., the
to industry, governmental, and
Mid-Atlantic, or near the Marcellus Changes in tax policy could affect
public stakeholders as the shale gas
formation). Indeed, as more reserves capital investments in shale gas plays
phenomenon continues to unfold.
are discovered and more wells and alter the investment picture.
established in new regions, more In particular, a significant amount
Supply exceeding demand, manufacturing regions will stand to of the capital investment in shale
unrealized LNG export benefit through lower gas prices. development in the US has been
potential powered by master limited partnerships
It is possible that there may be periods Natural gas trucking (MLPs), corporate structures that are
of over-supply, which could lead to continues to sputter not taxed as corporations and which
a slowing of investment in shale gas are exempt of corporate tax on oil
Additionally, the impacts of shale
development and a reduction in the and gas transportation and storage
gas could be amplified if natural gas
downstream activity supporting infrastructure.23
were to become a more common
that development (e.g., drilling
transportation fuel. So far, this is
equipment, processing infrastructure, Environmental issues
not the case, with natural gas fueled
and transport pipes). Over-supply
trucks still comprising a tiny fraction The environmental effect of hydraulic
could also occur if LNG exports
of the country’s fleet. Part of the fracturing, the process used to create
are not carried out to the degree
reason for the slow development is fractures in shale rock, is still being
and at the speed that is potentially
the higher price for these vehicles. studied. The primary area of interest
possible (as mentioned earlier in
But another more basic impediment is the potential for contamination of
this report). Over-supply could also
to their widespread use is the lack water sources from chemicals used
exacerbate the challenge of building
of fueling infrastructure. Lower during fracking; several states have
out infrastructure in regions that have
transportation costs through the use announced moratoria on the process.
yet to produce significant amounts
of natural gas trucking would likely Increased transparency regarding the
of natural gas (e.g., the Mid-Atlantic
benefit manufacturers through lower chemicals should help allay concerns.
region as it relates to the Marcellus
distribution and logistics costs. But, in In addition, the Environmental
shale formation).
order for this to happen, there would Protection Agency is conducting a
need to be a significant growth in the study on the environmental effects of
number and network of natural gas hydraulic fracturing, which will likely
fueling stations, not to mention new help shape future discourse on the use
fleets of natural gas trucks and retro- of this technology.
fitting kits. Consider that there are only
21 “Shale gas: A renaissance in US manufacturing?,” PwC, 2011.
22 “U.S. LNG Exports: Impacts on Energy Markets and the Economy,” ICF, API, May 2013
23 “Natural Gas: Tax-favored partnerships have fueled the shale gas boom—will that continue?,” E&E.com,
May 29, 2013.
8The last half-decade has ushered in However, as the industry has
Conclusion a larger, and more mature shale gas continued to grow, so has the urgency
industry to an extent that there is for all stakeholders—government,
potential that the US industry could environmental watchdog groups,
become a significant exporter of regulators, educational institutions,
natural gas and the technological and private enterprises—to ensure
expertise to develop in countries keen that the industry grows with
on building their own domestic shale transparency and with a vigorous
gas industries. pursuit toward the safety of all
processes and technologies deployed.
As the shale gas push in the US still
Certainly, the natural gas boom has
powers on, we estimate that there still
already demonstrated that it can be a
exists a likelihood that manufacturers
bona fide driver of manufacturing in
will benefit across a number of fronts,
the US and can help the country curb
assuming that shale gas is extracted at
its carbon footprint and add jobs. But
high rates and that natural gas prices
these scenarios will likely play out
remain relatively low.
only so far as the industry can ensure
We estimate 1.4 million manufacturing environmental safety, public trust, and
jobs added and $34.1 billion in cost common support.
savings by 2040 as a result of the
For the manufacturing sectors, part
benefits to manufacturing through
of achieving this will be continuing
relatively low energy and feedstock
to improve and refine the industry—
prices linked to domestic natural gas
by, for example, introducing
production. Investment in shale gas
innovations that cut water use and
development, and in manufacturing
mitigate air pollution. Indeed, such
sectors that benefit from that
innovations are already being carried
development, continues to pour in. And
out. By refining and improving
more companies are publicly disclosing
shale gas development further, US
a link between natural gas production
manufacturers may place themselves
as a material advantage to their
in a position to be even stronger global
businesses in SEC filings (40 in 2013
leaders in this technology, on top of
compared to 15 in 2010).
the benefits shale gas brings the sector
described in this report.
9 Shale gas: Still a boon in US manufacturing?Natural gas/US Natural gas/US
Methodology manufacturing cost manufacturing
sensitivity analysis employment sensitivity
This sensitivity analysis uses the analysis
annual volume of natural gas For this natural gas employment
consumed by the manufacturing sensitivity analysis, we created a time
sector, as well as EIA estimates of series regression which primarily
natural gas prices in 2030 and 2040 uses natural gas prices and a binary
under low and high shale recovery recession variable to predict domestic
scenarios. The low shale recovery manufacturing employment. We then
scenario assumes that 50% less gas is used the EIA natural gas recovery/
recovered from each shale formation, price scenario estimates described in
which would lead to the higher price our natural gas/US manufacturing
estimates in the pink columns in 2030 cost sensitivity analysis to find the
and 2040. The high shale recovery predicted difference in manufacturing
scenario assumes that 50% more gas is employment under the high recovery/
recovered from each shale formation, low price and low recovery/high price
which would lead to the lower price scenarios. Our forecast is that high
estimates in the red columns in 2030 shale extraction could result in almost
and 2040. If we set aside elasticity of one million extra manufacturing jobs
demand, then the difference in annual in the US economy by 2030 and 1.4
natural gas costs to the manufacturing million more by 2040.
sector under high vs. low scenarios is
over $22 billion by 2030.
EIA natural gas spot prices under high
and low recovery scenarios are in real
(2012) dollars. All other prices are in
nominal terms.
10Robert McCutcheon A special thanks to the National
Contributions to this Partner, US Industrial Products
Board Member Manufacturing Institute
Association of Manufacturers and The
American Chemistry Council for their
paper were made by and Metals Leader contributions to this report.
Niloufar Molavi
Partner, US Energy Leader
Bobby Bono
Partner, US Industrial
Manufacturing Leader
Michael Portnoy
Manufacturing Analyst
Thomas Waller
US Industrial Products Director
Christopher Sulavik
Senior Research Fellow
Robert McCutcheon Pamela Schlosser
To have a deeper conversation Partner, US Industrial Products Leader Partner, US Chemicals Leader
about shale gas, please contact: 412 355 2935 419 254 2546
robert.w.mccutcheon@us.pwc.com pamela.schlosser@us.pwc.com
Niloufar Molavi Michael Tomera
Partner, US Energy Leader Partner, US Metals Leader
713 356 6002 412 355 6095
niloufar.molavi@us.pwc.com michael.tomera@us.pwc.com
Bobby Bono
Partner, US Industrial
Manufacturing Leader
704 350 7993
robert.b.bono@us.pwc.com
www.pwc.com
© 2014 PwC. All rights reserved.“PwC” and “PwC US” refer to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership, which is a member firm of
PricewaterhouseCoopers International Limited, each member firm of which is a separate legal entity. This document is for general information purposes only, and
should not be used as a substitute for consultation with professional advisors.
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