The Future Direction of Flood Hazard Mapping in the US The Role of TFMA and TMAC to Help FEMA Make a More Resilient Nation - Scott Edelman
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Scott Edelman February 19, 2015
The Future Direction of Flood
Hazard Mapping in the US
The Role of TFMA and TMAC
to Help FEMA Make a More Resilient Nation
What does our 2050 future look like?
450MM
US Population
315MM
55MM
Texas Population
40MM
27MM 25%
Floodplains
What is TMAC?
TMAC = Technical Mapping
Advisory Council
The TMAC provides advice
and recommendations to the
Administrator of FEMA.
The duties of the TMAC are
solely advisory in nature.
TMAC Overview Federal advisory committee established by the Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act of 2012 amended by the Homeowner Flood Insurance Affordability Act of 2014
Objectives of TMAP
How to improve in a cost-effective
manner the:
– Accuracy, general quality, ease of use, and
distribution and dissemination of flood
insurance rate maps and risk data; and
– Performance metrics and milestones
required to effectively and efficiently map
flood risk areas in the United States.
Objectives of TMAP
Mapping standards and guidelines for:
– Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs); and
– Data accuracy, data quality, data currency,
and data eligibility;
How to maintain, on an ongoing basis,
FIRMs and flood risk identification; and
Procedures for delegating mapping
activities to State and local mapping
partners.
Objectives of TMAP
The TMAC recommends to the
Administrator and other Federal
agencies participating in the Council:
– Methods for improving interagency
and intergovernmental coordination
on flood mapping and flood risk
determination; and
– A funding strategy to leverage and
coordinate budgets and expenditures
across Federal agencies.
TMAC Reporting Requirements
Anticipated
Report Name Delivery
Review Report TBD
Future Conditions Risk
October 2015
Assessment and Modeling Report
TMAC Annual Report October 2015
Report Requirements
Legislative Requirements Required Reports
Future Conditions TMAC Annual Report
Risk Assessment National Mapping of Activities and
and Modeling Program Technical Recommendations
Report Review to the Administrator
Consult with scientists and technical experts, other
Federal Agencies, States, and local communities to
develop recommendations on how to:
• Ensure FIRMs incorporate the best available climate
science to assess flood risks
• Ensure that FEMA uses the best available
methodology to consider the impact of:
• the rise in sea level
• Future development on flood risk
Recommend to the Administrator how to improve in a
cost-effective manner the accuracy, general quality, ease
of use, and distribution and dissemination of FIRMs and
risk data
Recommend to the Administrator how to improve in a
cost-effective manner the performance metrics and
milestones required to effectively and efficiently map
flood risk areas in the United States
Recommend to the Administrator mapping standards and
guidelines for Flood Insurance Rate maps
Recommend to the Administrator mapping standards and
guidelines for data accuracy, data quality, data currency,
and data eligibility
Report Requirements
Legislative Requirements Required Reports
Future Conditions TMAC Annual Report
Risk Assessment National Mapping of Activities and
and Modeling Program Technical Recommendations
Report Review to the Administrator
Recommend to the Administrator how to maintain, on an
ongoing basis, Flood Insurance Rate maps and flood risk
identification
Recommend procedures for delegating mapping activities
to State and local mapping partners
Recommend to the Administrator and other federal
agencies participating in the Council methods for
improving interagency and intergovernmental
coordination on flood mapping and flood risk
determination
Recommend to the Administrator and other federal
agencies participating in the Council a funding strategy to
leverage and coordinate budgets and expenditures across
federal agencies
The FEMA Administrator shall implement a flood mapping
program for the National Flood Insurance Program, only
after review by the Technical Mapping Advisory Council,
that, when applied, results in technically credible flood
hazard data in all areas where Flood Insurance Rate maps
are prepared or updated. TMAC will deliver their review
report to the Administrator and the Administrator must
also submit the TMAC’s report to CongressTMAC Timeline
Report Development Process
TMAC Strategic Plan 2015 Provides overall guidance What items TMAC should accomplish in 2015 vs future years – Congressional mandates – TMAC committee member recommendations – Past report recommendations
Current Phase - Information Gathering
Determine who should
be invited to speak at
TMAC or workgroup
Determine
Information
what data
meetings
or analysis
can be
may need
in-person
to be
or virtual
generated
Focuses speakers on
issues TMAC wants to
address in 2015Subject Matter Experts/Technical Advisors The TMAC may hear from subject matter experts/technical advisors (“SMEs”) who will be asked to provide specialized information or assistance as appropriate and approved by the Designated Federal Officer (DFO). Individual TMAC members may request SMEs, by expertise or skillset, to appear before the TMAC, as needed. Member requests will be made to the Chair for consideration and consultation with the TMAC DFO. FEMA will not compensate SMEs for their services but they may be reimbursed for travel and lodging expenses.
The TMAC will hold quarterly plenary sessions Meeting agendas are developed by the DFO in coordination with the TMAC Chair Meeting notices are published in the Federal Register 15 days prior to the meeting
Who is a part of TMAC?
Member TMAC Category Title and Organization
Doug Bellomo FEMA Designee Director, Risk Analysis Division, FEMA
Director, National Geodetic Survey, National Oceanic nad Atmospheric
Juliana Blackwell NOAA Designee
Administration (NOAA)
Nancy Blyler USACE Geospatial Community Leader, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE)
Richard Butgereit State GIS GIS Administrator, Florida Division of Emergency Management
Mark DeMulder USGS GSGS National Geospatial Program
Director, Emergency Management Division, Geospatial and Technology
John Dorman State CTP
Management Office, North Carolina State Government
Director, State Cooperating Technical Partner (CTP) Program and National Flood
Leslie Durham State CTP
Insurance Program (NFIP), Alabama
Scott Edelman Mapping Division Director for North America, AECOM Water Resources
Steve Ferryman State Mitigation Officer Mitigation and Chief Engineer, Clark County Regional Flood Control District
Regional Flood and General Manager and Chief Engineer, Clark County Regional Flood Control
Gale Wm. Fraser, II
Stormwater Management District
Senior Policy Advisor, Mayor’s Office of Long-Term Planning and Sustainability,
Carrie Grassi Local CTP
New York City
Christopher Jones Engineering Registered Professional Engineer
Professor of Decision Sciences and Public Policy, Department of Operations and
Howard Kunreuther Risk Management
Information Management, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
Wendy Lathrop Surveying President and Owner, Cadastral Consulting, LLC
Senior Project Engineer, Urban Drainage & Flood Control District’s Floodplain
David Mallory Local CTP
Management Program, Denver, Colorado
Robert Mason DOI Designee Deputy Chief, Office of Surface Water, Department of Interior (DOI)
Sally Ann McConkey Floodplain Management Illinois State Water Survey Prairie Research Institute, University of Illinois
State NFIP Coordination
Christine Shirley NFIP Coordinator, Oregon State
Office
Cheryl Small Flood Hazards Determination Vice President of Operations, CoreLogic Flood ServicesTMAC Resources • www.fema.gov/TMAC
TMAC Potential Items for Future Conditions Report Map accuracy and uncertainty Human induced change Environment induced change Best available science Building design and construction Data requirements Riverine / Coastal
Clarifying Confusing Standards for Public
We need to inform the public on the
underlying assumptions
All structures operate correctly
and will not fail
Structures will not be obstructed
with debris
Only existing conditions
are consideredStructures will operate properly
ASSUMPTION
and will not failStructures will not be ASSUMPTION blocked with debris
Only existing conditions are ASSUMPTION reflected on the maps
FEMA / AECOM
National Climate Change Report
Released
by
Whitehouse
June 2013
Example Change: Q100
SIGNIFICANT TECHNICAL SIGNIFICANT FINANCIAL
FINDINGS: FINDINGS IN TODAY’S DOLLARS:
By Year 2100 riverine floodplains Average loss cost per policy will
will increase by 50% in size, increase by approximately 90%
Coastal areas will increase by Individual premiums will increase
55% in size 10% to 40%We have confused the public with different definitions Bridge Standard Flood Plain Elevation
Statistics are used to predict the future
Statistics use confidence limits to show range of likely results
Statistics use confidence limits to show range of likely results
What Causes Sea Level to Change? Thermal expansion (~ 1 meter potential) Water exchange with continents (potential) – Greenland ice (7 meters) – Antarctic ice (60 meters) – Mountain glaciers (0.5 meter) – Terrestrial water storage variations (< 0.5 meter) – Other (halosteric, etc.) SOURCE: Doug Marcy, NOAA December 2014 ∆SL Total = ∆SL Thermosteric + ∆SL Greenland + ∆SL Antarctica + ∆SL Glaciers+ ∆SL Storage+ ∆SL Other
Greatest source of uncertainty? SOURCE: Doug Marcy NOAA December 2014c Source: NASA
Just give me a number – please! SOURCE: Doug Marcy NOAA December 2014c
Variability within IPCC projections
Global SLR scenarios We also know of course that sea level change will vary regionally and locally SOURCE: Doug Marcy NOAA December 2014c; Parris et al, 2012
Intergovernmental panel on climate change
IPCC has recommendations for uncertainty
IPCC Uncertainty
How can TFMA help? Contribute on areas that can be improved Submit a whitepaper on TFMA position Be available for SME’s
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