Published in March 2021 Frankfurt - Residential City Profile - JLL
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Housing market Frankfurt Frankfurt counteracts scarcity of available land the highest number of new building permits issued since the with a multitude of conversions early 1960s (2019: 5,829). The level of completions in Frank- After a high point in terms of the number of newly completed furt was actually a little above the estimated requirement for apartments in 2017 with 5,122, the number of completions additional apartments (intermediate scenario: around 3,135 has remained at a high level ever since (4,636 new apart- residential units each year until 2030). However, it remains to ments in 2019). This significant increase in the number of be seen to what extent this level can be maintained over the completions has been due mainly to a considerable growth longer term. On the one hand, a large proportion of the new in construction backlog in the preceding period: in 2018 building permits (approximately 1,195 apartments) were is- alone, there were 7,329 newly completed apartments and sued for the proposed conversion of commercial properties to residential use – a clear sign of the scarcity on the supply side. On the other hand, the increasing shortage of building Housing supply and demand for land has meant that housing projects are more rarely con- new buildings Frankfurt structed on undeveloped sites and there are significant re- strictions on the supply side because of the high land prices. Frankfurt’s city council has therefore passed a building land directive, which is a planning decision to guarantee that any future residential development must contain at least 30% publicly subsidised housing. Frankfurt experienced substan- tial population growth of 50,000 in the period from 2014 to 2020. Even if this growth has recently slowed down due to the lower levels of population influx, the average inward mi- gration, especially amongst the 18-30-year age group, remains high (5-year average approximately 8,000 p.a.). Together with the more intensive development of building sites, the result- ing shift in demand is also having an effect on the supply side: by far, the greatest proportion of completions is for stu- dio and 2-room apartments (around 46%). Despite a high proportion of new international arrivals in this age group and *Additional annual need for housing units (includes also apartments in detached the COVID-19 movement restrictions, Frankfurt was still expe- houses) without consideration of current construction deficits. Source: destatis, JLL; Status: January 2021 riencing positive population growth as at mid-year 2020. Selected developments under constructions Name Location Residential units Completion date Hafenpark Ostend approx. 600 2025 Wohnquartier Berghöfe Kalbach-Riedberg approx.360 2023 Wohnanlage Ruby Tower Niederrad approx. 315 2021 Wohnquartier Wings Gallus approx. 280 2021 Wohnquartier Grünhoch2 Nieder-Eschbach approx. 280 2022 Source: Thomas Daily, JLL; Status: January 2021 Residential City Profile | H2 2020 Frankfurt 2
Increased rental price growth in the new-build seg- ment, more subdued growth in other segments Average asking rents in Frankfurt increased by 4.2% year- on-year in the second half of 2020 to their current level of €16.00/sqm/month. This development is at around the Distribution of rental listings by price group same level as the 5-year average (4.4% p.a.) and around 1 percentage point above the previous year’s level (3.2%). There was a significant fall in momentum both in the prime segment (2.3%) and in the lower priced segment (lowest 10% of all rental offers at 2.3%) compared to the preceding years (5-year averages: 5.7% and 4.3% p.a., re- spectively). Conversely, prices in the new-build segment rose by 8.7% to their current level of €17.55/sqm/month, a significant increase compared to both the previous year (0.9%) and the 5-year average (3.6% p.a.). In an analysis of locations, the most significant rental price increases in the second half of the year were observed in the City Centre I submarket with the Gallus, Gutleutviertel, Central Station, Old Town and City Centre districts, and in the West and Mitte-West submarkets. Source: JLL, empirica systeme; Status: January 2021 Rental price bands for listed apartments Frankfurt Development of rental prices Source: JLL, empirica systeme; Status: January 2021 Source: JLL, empirica systeme, IDN immodaten; Status: January 2021 Residential City Profile | H2 2020 Frankfurt 3
Asking rental prices Frankfurt Nieder- Erlenbach Nieder- Eschbach Kalbach Harheim Bonames Frankfurter Niederursel Berg Berkersheim Heddernheim Eschersheim Bergen- Preungesheim Enkheim Eckenheim Dornbusch Praunheim A 661 Seckbach Ginnheim A5 Hausen Westend- B 44 Nord Nordend- B8 West Bornheim B 8/40 A 66 Rödelheim Riederwald Nordend- Sossenheim Bockenheim Westend- Ost Fechenheim Unterliederbach A 648 Süd Ostend B 40/44 Innenstadt Altstadt Höchst Gallusviertel Bahnhofsviertel Nied Zeilsheim Sachsenhausen- B 40a Griesheim Oberrad Nord Gutleutviertel B3 Sindlingen Niederrad Schwanheim B 43/44 Sachsenhausen- Süd A3 B 43 Flughafen Frankfurt Flughafen 0 5 10 km OpenStreetMap-contributors Rent Level Average in €/sqm/month on postcode level < 12.00 16.00 < 18.00 Water Area Industrial or Traffic Area 12.00 < 14.00 >= 18.00 Green Area Other Area 14.00 < 16.00 Source: JLL, empirica systeme Residential City Profile | H2 2020 Frankfurt 4
Continuing growth, especially for purchase prices in the new-build segment The average purchase price for condominium apartments in Frankfurt of €6,550/sqm was an increase of 11.8% in the second half of 2020. This continues the growth of the previ- Distribution of condo listings by price group ous year (9.7%) and even exceeds the 5-year average (8.5% p.a.). The strongest impetus for this half-year trend did not come from the prime segment (€9,460/sqm), as this is actu- ally a little below the previous year’s level (-0.3%) after the significant growth in this segment of 11.9% last year, and a 5-year average of 8.6% p.a. The most significant momen- tum came from the lower priced segment (€4,010/sqm) where purchase prices grew by 12.0% (previous year: 13.7%), and the new-build segment where asking prices in the sec- ond half of 2020 were 13.6% higher than in the same period the previous year. This growth is again considerably above both the previous year’s level (8.2%) and the 5-year average (9.6% p.a.). There was also further marginal growth in the absolute prime segment in Frankfurt with a price of around €15,000/sqm. In an analysis of locations, there was signifi- cant growth in purchase prices in the North East, Mitte- West and Mitte-North submarkets, but purchase prices Source: JLL, empirica systeme; Status: January 2021 stagnated in the city centre districts. Purchase price bands for condominiums Frankfurt Development of purchase prices for condominiums Source: JLL, empirica systeme; Status: January 2021 Source: JLL, empirica systeme, IDN immodaten; Status: January 2021 Residential City Profile | H2 2020 Frankfurt 5
Asking condominium prices Frankfurt Nieder- Erlenbach Nieder- Eschbach Kalbach Harheim Bonames Frankfurter Niederursel Berg Berkersheim Heddernheim Eschersheim Bergen- Preungesheim Enkheim Eckenheim Dornbusch Praunheim A 661 Seckbach Ginnheim A5 Hausen Westend- B 44 Nord Nordend- B8 West Bornheim B 8/40 A 66 Rödelheim Riederwald Nordend- Sossenheim Bockenheim Westend- Ost Fechenheim Unterliederbach A 648 Süd Ostend B 40/44 Innenstadt Altstadt Höchst Gallusviertel Bahnhofsviertel Nied Zeilsheim Sachsenhausen- B 40a Griesheim Oberrad Nord Gutleutviertel B3 Sindlingen Niederrad Schwanheim B 43/44 Sachsenhausen- Süd A3 B 43 Flughafen Frankfurt Flughafen 0 5 10 km OpenStreetMap-contributors Condominium price level Average in €/sqm on postcode level < 3,000 6,000 < 8,500 Water Area Industrial or Traffic Area 4,000 < 5,500 >= 8,500 Green Area Other Area 5,500 < 6,000 Source: JLL, empirica systeme Residential City Profile | H2 2020 Frankfurt 6
Contacts Michael Bender Helen Lindner Ralf Kemper Head of Residential Germany Head of Residential Development Head of Valuation & Transaction Frankfurt Germany Advisory Germany +49 (0) 69 2003 2333 Berlin Frankfurt michael.bender@eu.jll.com +49 (0) 30 203980 703 +49 (0) 69 2003 1092 helen.lindner@eu.jll.com ralf.kemper@eu.jll.com Helge Scheunemann Roman Heidrich Sebastian Grimm Head of Research Germany Lead Director Valuation & Lead Director Valuation & Hamburg Transaction Advisory Transaction Advisory +49 (0) 40 350011 225 Berlin Frankfurt helge.scheunemann@eu.jll.com +49 (0) 30 203980 106 +49 (0) 69 2003 1196 roman.heidrich@eu.jll.com sebastian.grimm@eu.jll.com Johannes Roesler Team Leader Residential Investment Frankfurt +49 (0) 69 2003 1362 johannes.roesler@eu.jll.com Authors Dr. Sören Gröbel Christian Giesemann Director Research Team Leader Research Berlin Berlin +49 (0) 30 203980 151 +49 (0) 30 203980 201 soeren.groebel@eu.jll.com christian.giesemann@eu.jll.com jll.de Information regarding JLL and our services jll.de/research All research reports on current market figures and special topics jll.de/immo Commercial real estate properties for sale or to let througout Germany residential.jll.de Information and offers on condominiums in exciting German metropolises Copyright © JONES LANG LASALLE SE, 2021. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of Jones Lang LaSalle. It is based on material that we believe to be reliable. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot offer any warranty that it contains no factual errors. We would like to be told of any such errors in order to correct them.
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