Private equity briefing: Southeast Asia - May 2019 - EY
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This briefing offers you a roundup of the private equity and venture capital deals along with capital activities across major sectors in the quarter and trends that are shaping investment decisions today. It distills the perspectives of the teams of subject-matter professionals in the region into pertinent insights to keep you ahead in navigating the private equity landscape. Private equity briefing: SEA 2
Contents 1 Outlook 2 Investments 3 Exits 4 Fundraising 5 Diversified 6 Risk and 7 Our Private Industrial compliance Equity (PE) products challenges service in emerging offerings markets 4 6 11 14 16 22 26 Private equity briefing: SEA 3
1 Outlook PE and Venture Capital (VC) investment activity across Southeast Asia (SEA) delivered a strong performance in 2018 with a total US$14.1b worth of announced deals. Dry powder reached record levels, and 2019 is off to a relatively sedate start with the announcement of deals worth over US$2.2b till February. In terms of investment activity, PE investment declined in 2018 with 69 announced deals, valued at US$8.9b1, compared to 90 announced deals worth US$17.5b2 in 2017. VC investment increased in 2018 with 311 announced deals, valued at US$5.2b1,compared to 230 announced deals worth US$4.1b2 in 2017. Exit value for PE declined sharply from US$20.7b3 in 2017 to US$7.3b4 in 2018 while PE exit count declined from 41 announced exits in 2017 to 32 exits in 2018. As well, VC exits declined steeply from US$1.7b3 in 2017 to US$0.1b4 in 2018 while VC exit count declined from 13 announced exits in 2017 to six exits in 2018. Unicorns based out of Indonesia (Go-Jek, Tokopedia) and Singapore (Grab) dominate the league tables in 2018 with deals of more than US$1b raised as growth capital. Vietnam-based companies, Techcombank (financial services) and Vinhomes JSC (luxury home developer) raised US$0.9b each as pre-IPO funding from sovereign wealth fund (SWF) and leading PE. Vietnam and Indonesia are seeing increasing deal traction with sizeable investments from SWF and bulge bracket PE, including Government of Singapore Investment Corporation, Warburg Pincus LLC, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. Inc. and Texas Pacific Group Capital, among others. Markets across SEA have witnessed a decline in fundraising in 2018. Interestingly, there was disparity in fundraising performance, as funds with strong track record and size were able to exceed their fundraising goals, while newer funds found it harder to raise capital. Current trends and a peek into 2019 In the year ahead, we will likely be seeing: ► Tech companies continue to gain significant traction: Strong investor interest in the region's developing technology sector and other consumption-based industries is likely to help sustain higher levels of investment. PE investors will be particularly interested in SEA’s FinTech players with payments platforms and digital wallets, and health tech players with medical diagnostics capabilities. ► Maturing investor landscape leading to stiff competition and increased valuation: The growing amount of dry powder, coupled with the greater demand for capital from later stage companies has resulted in the surge of large cap consortium deals. Valuation for PE transactions are at close to its peak and there is an increasing valuation mismatch. EY Global Corporate Divestment Study 2019 indicates that 70% of SEA vendors believe that the valuation gap is more than 20%. Note: PE and VC includes private equities, venture capitals and sovereign wealth funds (SWFs). 1. Deal value was undisclosed for 22 of the 69 announced PE transactions and 141 of the 311 announced VC transactions in 2018. 2. Deal value was undisclosed for 20 of the 90 announced PE transactions and 74 of the 230 announced VC transactions in 2017 Private equity briefing: SEA 4 3. Exit value was undisclosed for four of the 41 announced PE transactions and six of the 32 announced VC transactions in 2017. 4. Exit value was undisclosed for nine of the 13 announced PE transactions and five of the six announced VC transactions in 2018. Note: Our analysis in this newsletter are based solely on PE and VC deals that are reported.
► Start-ups gaining stability in the region: Start-up and early-stage funding decreased in 2018 in contrast to the rising expansion and growth capital funding. This indicates confidence of PE and VC firms in existing start-ups. ► Strengthening regulations increasing investor confidence: The focus on stringent anti-corruption laws among SEA corporates has led to an increase in investor confidence in the region. Malaysia has passed the Anti-Corruption Commission (Amendment) Act 2018, while Vietnam, Thailand and Singapore are enhancing efforts to curb private sector bribery and promote integrity, transparency and compliance. ► Opportunity for PE firms as corporate divestments expected to see a rise: More than ever, divestments are at the core of companies’ growth and transformation strategies. The EY Global Corporate Divestment Study 2019 found that 85% of SEA corporates plan to divest in the next two years. This continues to reflect a significant increase since 2018 from low previous averages – SEA divestment intentions were just at 26% in 2017. ► Increased focus on active value creation: The focus on active value creation in the portfolio has never been higher. We see PE funds increasingly ramp up their value creation efforts through various operating models. In addition to topics such as revenue management, cost management, supply chain, and working capital. We are also seeing the emergence of digital as an active topic in value creation. Topics to be discussed in this issue In this issue, get insights on the fundamental changes that are at play in the diversified industrial sector in their bid to stay relevant in this changing landscape shaped by new technology and changing preferences. In the article, we will also share about how Industry 4.0, powered by a combination of big data, analytics and physical technology would potentially appear and the six big bets that will differentiate the leaders in the diversified industrial sector from their peers: ► Customer connectivity ► Supply chain reinvention ► Talent and culture ► Digital assimilation ► Big data and analytics ► Advances in enterprise We share our perspective on how the compliance landscape in SEA markets are affecting PE in the region. There is an increasing thrust on strengthening local legislation and guidelines to bring it on par with accepted international laws and conventions. We list out some of the key challenges that PE face in their pre and post- investment phases, as well as the best practices followed by PE around forensics and monitoring. Luke Pais EY Asean M&A and Private Equity Leader and Partner, Ernst & Young Corporate Finance Pte Ltd. “ We have almost come to the end of the second decade of private capital investing in the region. As the product has matured and is better understood, it has also taken various forms to address a variety of investor needs from early stage to growth stage to mature stage to structured solutions. The years ahead promise to be very exciting.” Private equity briefing: SEA 5
2 Investments ► PE and VC firms invested US$4.0b over 128 deals in ► Aggregate size of small- and mid-cap deals soared in 4Q18 across the Southeast Asian region. 4Q18 as compared to 3Q18, increasing over 3.3 times. ► Deal activity in 4Q18 increased compared to the preceding quarter, i.e., 3Q18, both in terms of deal ► Second half of 2018 has witnessed significant uptick value and deal count, wherein PE and VC announced in VC deal activity with 199 deals in 2H18 vis-à-vis 107 deals, investing US$3.1b in the region. 112 deals in 1H18. Figure 1: PE investment activity 10,000 30 35 27 30 8,000 23 Deal value US$m 20 25 Deal count 6,000 17 20 16 13 13 4,000 15 7,762 6,438 10 2,000 3,138 3,282 5 1,728 1,616 1,518 976 0 0 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 PE investment Deal count Figure 2: VC investment activity 3,000 105 120 94 2,500 100 2,632 Deal value US$m 2,000 80 Deal count 62 62 2,100 52 54 56 1,500 56 60 1,000 40 500 752 739 20 647 314 357 1,710 0 0 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 VC investment Deal count Note: Analysis based on announcement dates of the PE and VC deals Source: AVCJ Private equity briefing: SEA 6
Table 1: Top PE and VC investments announced in 4Q18 Investment Company Country Sector Value Acquirer or investor date (US$m) Dec-2018 PT. Tokopedia Indonesia Information 1,100 Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.; Sequoia technology Capital India Advisors; SoftBank Investment Advisers (SB Investment Advisers); SOFTBANK Ventures Korea Dec-2018 Standard Chartered Singapore Other 995 Intermediate Capital Group Plc; Nainesh Private Equity - Jaisingh Portfolio Dec-2018 V3 Group Ltd. Singapore Consumer 364 KKR Singapore Pte. Ltd. products and services Oct-2018 Masan Group Vietnam Conglomerate 209 GIC Pte Ltd.; Undisclosed investor(s) Corporation Oct-2018 Voyager Innovations Philippines Information 175 Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. L.P. technology (KKR); Tencent Holdings Ltd. Source: AVCJ Vikram Chakravarty EY Asean Transaction Advisory Services Leader and Partner Ernst & Young Solutions LLP “Given the global headwinds and business uncertainty, business owners will do well to partner with PE to diversify risk, manage growth, improve governance and beat competition. Therefore, we expect to see healthy investment activity in 2019.” Private equity briefing: SEA 7
Annual investment activity ► In 2018, PE and VC recorded a total investment of US$14.1b from 380 announced deals across Southeast Asia. The total deal count (announced) in the region increased in 2018 from 2017 (320 deals), however the total investment value was lower than that in 2017 (US$21.6b) due to two mega deals (Equis Energy and Global Logistic Properties Ltd. ) in that year. Excluding these two deals, the total investment in 2017 was US$11.1b. ► Investments by PE in 2018 is estimated to be c.63% of total deal value, with remaining c.37% being from VC. In terms of deal count, investments by PE in 2018 is estimated to be c.18% of total deal count (majority of the deal counts are VCs). Figure 3a: PE investment activity by deal cap Figure 3b: VC investment activity by deal cap 25,000 90 100 6,000 350 311 90 5,000 300 20,000 80 69 230 250 70 4,000 15,000 60 3,180 Deal value US$m Deal value US$m Deal count Deal count 200 50 3,000 12,550 150 10,000 40 3,050 2,000 30 100 5,179 5,000 20 1,488 1,000 50 4,786 10 514 3,670 491 529 0 0 0 0 2017 2018 2017 2018 Small cap Mid cap Large cap Deal count Small cap Mid cap Large cap Deal count ► Singapore maintained its lead in 2018 and accounted for the majority of the deal value (US$6.7b), followed by Indonesia (US$3.3b) and Vietnam (US$3.1b). ► In terms of deal count, Singapore leads again with the completion of 180 deals, followed by Indonesia (80), Vietnam (38) and Malaysia (38). Figure 4a: PE investment activity by country Figure 4b: VC investment activity by country 25,000 90 100 6,000 350 311 90 5,000 300 20,000 80 69 178 230 250 813 70 Deal value US$m Deal value US$m 4,000 15,000 60 3,003 200 Deal count Deal count 50 3,000 150 10,000 12,924 40 10 2,000 3,706 2,911 30 100 5,000 20 3,737 276 1,000 1,782 50 1,657 10 747 465 1,200 1,512 0 0 0 0 2017 2018 2017 2018 Cambodia Indonesia Brunei Cambodia Laos Malaysia Indonesia Malaysia Myanmar (Burma) Philippines Myanmar (Burma) Philippines Singapore Thailand Singapore Thailand Vietnam Deal count Vietnam Deal count Note: Analysis based on announcement dates of the PE/VC deals; Small = deal value less than US$20m, mid = deal value of US$20m-500m, large = deal value more than US$500m; based on deal values disclosed Source: AVCJ Private equity briefing: SEA 8
Annual investment activity (cont’d) ► The Information Technology (IT) sector has been a major segment driving PE and VC deal activity in the region. Total deal value for tech companies went up by c.23% in 2018, while deal count increased by c.16%. The IT sector will continue to be a strong driver of deal activity as more companies and business models of scale emerge. Headline deals in this sector for 2018 include unicorns like PT Go-Jek’s US$1.5b, PT. Tokopedia’s US$1.1b and Grab’s US$1.0b fund raised. ► Computer-related, medical and electronics sector experienced an increase in VC deal activity. Notable computer- related deals include Goldman Sachs and TPG Capital’s debt funding of Airtrunk (US$618m) and Boyu Capital’s investment of US$125m in Trax retail. ► A majority of deal activity in the consumer sector is concentrated in Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia. Investor appetite for consumer sector targets remained high amid the growing middle class in the region, however, there is tough competition for quality assets from both financial and strategic investors. Figure 5a: PE deal count by sector Figure 5b: VC deal count by sector 90 69 230 311 100% 100% 90% 9.6% 12.9% 29.0% 90% 80% 41.1% 6.1% 3.9% 80% 5.5% 70% 14.3% 7.2% 70% 19.0% Deal count 60% 7.2% 10.0% 10.1% Deal count 60% 50% 40% 7.8% 10.1% 50% 30% 12.2% 40% 14.5% 68.7% 20% 13.3% 30% 58.8% 10% 21.7% 20% 13.3% 0% 10% 2017 2018 0% Information technology Medical 2017 2018 Consumer products/services Financial services Information technology Computer related Electronics Services Services - Non-Financial Medical Others Others Figure 6a: PE deal value by sector Figure 6b: VC deal value by sector US$17.5b US$8.9b US$4.0b US$5.2b 100% 100% 14.4% 8.3% 8.8% 90% 90% 4.7% 4.9% 80% 39.4% 80% 12.7% 70% 36.6% 60% 70% 2.7% Deal value 50% 10.9% 60% Deal value 40% 13.6% 50% 30% 34.7% 87.1% 15.7% 40% 20% 73.6% 30% 10% 5.9% 17.8% 4.1% 0% 20% 2017 2018 10% Financial services Information technology 0% Medical Consumer products/services 2017 2018 Transportation/ Distribution Utilities Others Information technology Manufacturing - Heavy Computer related Others Note: Analysis based on announcement dates of the PE/VC deals; based on deal values disclosed Source: AVCJ Private equity briefing: SEA 9
Annual investment activity (cont’d) Table 2: Top investments in 2018 – announced deals Investment Company Country Sector Value (US$m) Acquirer or investor date Jan-2018 PT Go-Jek Indonesia Indonesia Information 1,535 Allianz X GmbH; Alphabet Inc. (Google); (GoJek) technology Beijing Shunwei Venture Capital Co., Ltd. (Shunwei Capital); BlackRock, Inc.; GIC Special Investments Pte Ltd.; Hera Capital Partners Pte Ltd.; JD.com, Inc.; KKR Singapore Pte. Ltd.; Meituan-Dianping (Meituan.com); Northstar Group; PT Astra International Tbk; PT Global Digital Prima Ventures (GDP Ventures); Samsung Venture Investment Corp.; Sequoia Capital India Advisors; Temasek Holdings (Private) Ltd.; Tencent Holdings Ltd.; Warburg Pincus Singapore Pte Ltd. Dec-2018 PT. Tokopedia Indonesia Information 1,100 Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.; Sequoia technology Capital India Advisors; SoftBank Investment Advisers (SB Investment Advisers); SOFTBANK Ventures Korea Aug-2018 Grab Holdings Inc. Singapore Information 1,000 All-Stars Investment Ltd.; Cinda Sino-Rock technology Investment Management Co., Ltd.; Lightspeed Venture Partners; Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc.; Mirae Asset Daewoo Co. Ltd.; OppenheimerFunds, Inc; Ping An Capital Co., Ltd.; Vulcan Capital Dec-2018 Standard Chartered Singapore Other 995 Intermediate Capital Group Plc; Nainesh Private Equity - Jaisingh Portfolio Apr-2018 Vietnam Technological Vietnam Financial services 922 Capital Group International Inc; Dragon & Commercial Joint Capital Group Ltd.; Fidelity Management & Stock Bank Research Co.; GIC Pte Ltd. (Techcombank) Apr-2018 Vinhomes JSC Vietnam Construction 850 GIC Special Investments Pte Ltd. June-2018 DSM Sinochem Singapore Medical 693 Bain Capital Asia, LLC Pharmaceuticals Pte Ltd. Sep-2018 MMI Holdings Ltd. Singapore Manufacturing - Heavy 645 Beijing HBH Innovation Industry Fund; Cybernaut (China) Capital Aug-2018 AirTrunk Singapore Computer related 619 Goldman Sachs & Co. - Principal Investment Area; TPG Sixth Street Partners (TSSP) Mar-2018 Vietnam Technological Vietnam Financial services 370 Warburg Pincus Singapore Pte Ltd. & Commercial Joint Stock Bank (Techcombank) Source: AVCJ Private equity briefing: SEA 10
3 Exits ► There remains limited disclosure around PE exits in the ► The largest exit in 4Q18 was the sale of Standard region, with a number of deals going unreported and Chartered Private Equity portfolio for US$995m. therefore not captured by the analysis. ► 4Q18 saw total exit value of US$1.34b through six disclosed exits. The total exit value for 4Q18 declined due to absence of large-cap exits and low deal count. Figure 7: PE exit activity 12,000 13 14 11 12 10,000 10 10 Deal value US$m 8 8 10 8,000 Deal count 7 8 6,000 6 11,246 6 4,000 7,940 4 2,000 2 2,254 1,258 2,404 777 755 1,342 0 0 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 PE exit value Deal count Figure 8: VC exit activity 1,200 7 6 1,000 1,113 6 Deal value US$m 5 800 Deal count 4 600 3 3 2 2 2 2 400 2 1 1 500 200 1 80 50 0 0 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 VC exit value Deal count Note: Analysis based on announcement dates of the PE/VC exit deals; based on deal values disclosed; Deals in which PE and VC both were involved are considered as PE deals for the purpose of the analysis Source: AVCJ Private equity briefing: SEA 11
Table 4: Top exits in 4Q18 Investment Company Country Sector Value Sponsor Type date (US$m) Dec-2018 Standard Chartered Singapore Other 995 Standard Chartered Private Trade sale Private Equity - Equity Portfolio Oct-2018 Masan Group Vietnam Conglomerate 209 Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. Trade sale Corporation (KKR) Nov-2018 EZbuy Holdings Ltd. Singapore Information 86 China Growth Capital; EZbuy Trade sale technology Holdings Ltd.; IDG Ventures; Sky9 Capital; Ventech; Vision Knight Capital Partners Oct-2018 Tranglo Sdn. Bhd. Malaysia Information 28 Ekuinas Trade sale technology Nov-2018 SM Asset Holdings Myanmar Information 26 Samena Capital Trade sale (Burma) technology Source: AVCJ Geophin George Partner Transaction Advisory Services Ernst & Young Solutions LLP “ There is a strong exit pipeline over the next two years and given the levels of dry powder, we expect to see more PE secondary transactions.” Private equity briefing: SEA 12
Annual exit activity ► PE and VC exit counts decreased from 54 in 2017 to 38 in 2018. The total exit value recorded in 2018 was US$7.3b across Southeast Asia, a steep decline from US$22.4b in 2017. Large-cap exits in 2018 include the sale of PT Agincourt Resources (exited by EMR Capital and Farallon Capital), sale of PT Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk (exited by Temasek Holdings), share buyback of Interpharma Investments Ltd., and sale of MMI Holdings Ltd. (exited by KKR). ► In terms of exit count in 2018, Singapore leads with 12 announced exits, followed by Vietnam with 10 exits and Malaysia with seven exits. Singapore and Indonesia lead in terms of exit value due to the large-cap exits. Figure 9a: PE exit activity by deal cap Figure 9b: VC exit activity by deal cap 25,000 41 45 2,000 13 14 40 1,800 12 20,000 32 35 1,600 180 2,888 1,400 10 30 Deal value US$m Deal value US$m 15,000 1,200 25 8 Deal count Deal count 1,000 6 20 6 10,000 800 17,800 1,500 15 600 4 1,662 5,000 10 400 2 5,551 5 200 50 0 0 0 0 2017 2018 2017 2018 Large cap Mid cap Small cap Deal count Large cap Mid cap Small cap Deal count Table 5: Top exits in 2018 – announced deals Investment Value Company Country Sector Vendor Type date (US$m) Aug-2018 PT Agincourt Indonesia Mining and 1,210 EMR Capital; Farallon Capital; Private Trade sale Resources (Martabe metals Investor(s) Gold and Silver Mine) Mar-2018 PT Bank Danamon Indonesia Financial 1,171 Temasek Holdings Trade sale Indonesia Tbk services Apr-2018 Interpharma Singapore Medical 1,000.0 Temasek Holdings Share buyback Investments Ltd. (Zuellig Pharma) Dec-2018 Standard Chartered Singapore Other 994.5 Standard Chartered Private Equity Trade sale Private Equity - Portfolio Sep-2018 MMI Holdings Ltd. Singapore Manufacturing - 645.0 Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. (KKR) Trade sale Heavy Sep-2018 DSG International Thailand Manufacturing - 530.0 DSG International Ltd.; Morgan Stanley Trade sale (Thailand) PCL Light Private Equity Jan-2018 Aspion Group Malaysia Manufacturing - 342.7 Low Chin Guan; Southern Capital Trade sale Light Note: Analysis based on announcement dates of the PE/VC exit deals; Small = deal value less than US$20m, mid = deal value of US$20m-500m, large = deal value more than US$500m; based on deal values disclosed; Deals in which PE and VC both were involved are considered as PE deals for the purpose of the analysis Source: AVCJ Private equity briefing: SEA 13
4 Fundraising ► According to Preqin, the total PE and VC dry powder ► Surging investments in Southeast Asia resulted in for Asia-Pacific has reached a record level high of increased competition and higher valuations. Thereby, c. US$368.4b at end of 2018. requiring PE and VC investors to increase their focus on value creation and organic growth. ► Total funds raised for 2018 amounted to US$4.5b from a total fund count of 34, a decline of 72% from ► Funds that improve their commercial excellence and US$16.0b in 2017. harness digital technologies, along with securing top talent, will be better positioned to produce anticipated ► PE funds accounted for 71.5% of total funds raised in returns. 2018. However, PE fund raising declined from US$13.8b in 2017 to US$3.2b in 2018. ► VC funds accounted for 28.5% of the total funds raised in 2018. VC funding also declined in 2018 from US$2.2b in 2017 to US$1.3b in 2018. Figure 10: Fund raising activity* – Asia-Pacific domiciled funds with Southeast Asia focus 8,000 16 14 7,000 13 14 699 6,000 12 10 Fund raised US$m 5,000 9 10 1,237 Fund count 8 4,000 7 7 8 6 3,000 6,000 6 2,000 4,089 4 3,241 1,000 2,355 2 344 479 404 610 389 0 0 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 PE investment VC investment Deal count Note: *Analysis includes all fund types i.e., growth, early stage or venture, real estate, infrastructure, mezzanine, special situations, etc. It includes funds that are based out in Asia-Pacific and have a mandate to invest in Southeast Asia along with other geographic regions. Private equity briefing: SEA 14 Source: Preqin
► We are currently witnessing a record level of dry powder in Asia. The two largest funds raised in 2018 with Southeast Asia as a region of focus include Dymon Asia Private Equity, which raised US$0.5b, and North Haven Thai, which raised US$0.4b. ► In addition to pure play PE, there is an increasing prevalence of shadow capital as institutional investors, sovereign wealth funds and family offices begin to deploy capital directly. Corporate acquirers continue to compete for quality assets, thereby increasing the need for PE firms to articulate a differentiated source of value-add above and beyond their ability to invest capital. Table 6a: Top funds raised in 2018 – with Southeast Asia region among the location focus for investment Fund name Closed Manager Type Final size Location focus Industry focus date (US$b) Southeast Asia, Australia, Axiom Asia Fund of Axiom Asia V Dec-18 1.4 Emerging Markets, Greater China, Diversified Private Capital funds India, Japan, South Korea Dymon Asia Dymon Asia Private Equity May-18 Balanced 0.5 Southeast Asia, Singapore Diversified Private Equity (S.E. Asia) Fund II Morgan Stanley North Haven Thai Oct-18 Private Equity Buyout 0.4 Thailand Diversified Private Equity Asia Technology, IT, Biotechnology, Korea KIP NPS Re-up Expansion/ Southeast Asia, Europe, Far East, Software, May-18 Investment 0.3 Fund late stage South Korea, US Semiconductors, Partners Biomedical, Diversified IT, Business Capital Square Capital Square Services, Oct-18 Buyout 0.2 Southeast Asia, India, Singapore Partners Fund I Partners Outsourcing, IT Infrastructure Table 6b: Top funds raised in 2018 – with Asia as the key focus for investment Fund name Closed Manager Type Final size Location focus Industry focus date (US$b) Hillhouse Fund IV Sep-18 Hillhouse Capital Buyout 10.6 Asia (incl. China) and Global Technology, Management Healthcare, Consumer Products Blackstone Real Mar-18 Blackstone Real Estate 7.1 Asia and Australia Property Estate Partners Group Asia II Carlyle Asia Jun-18 Carlyle Group Buyout 6.6 Asia Telecoms, Partners V Consumer Products, Manufacturing, Media, Financial Services PAG Asia Capital Nov-18 PAG Asia Capital Buyout 6.0 Asia (incl. India) Consumer Fund III Products, Financial Services, Education, Business Services Bain Capital Asia Dec-18 Bain Capital Buyout 4.7 Asia Diversified IV Source: Preqin Private equity briefing: SEA 15
5 Diversified Industrial Products Diversified Industrial Products (DIP) sector overview ► The DIP sector includes companies in aerospace and defense, chemicals, industrial conglomerates, industrial and mechanical components, machinery and electrical systems and packaging, and paper and wood manufacturing. ► DIP companies are undergoing fundamental changes as they adapt to the altered landscape shaped by new technology and changing preferences. Though each subsector faces its own unique challenges and opportunities, they are united in their focus on three key fronts — growth, operational efficiencies, and technological innovation. Figure 11: Global industrial revenue growth CAGR, 2011-14 versus 2014-18F 2011-2014 2014-2018F +1.6% +4.8% -0.7% 6.3% 6.6% +4.2% +4.8% +2.8% 4.9% 5.0% 4.3% 4.1% 3.4% 3.6% 1.5% 0.8% 0.7% (0.5%) Industrials Financials Consumer Communications Information Health care staples technology Source: Capital IQ; EY Analysis Private equity briefing: SEA 16
Diversified Industrial Products (DIP) sector overview (cont’d) ► As technology innovation drives new business possibilities, DIP firms are finding themselves in a market with new customer expectations and product capabilities, including new competitors that bring differentiated business models to long established ways of working. ► DIP companies are refocusing their businesses on core operations, moving away from the mindset of “diversification as a virtue” and are divesting operations that were underperforming or diluting corporate resources. As such, we are seeing an increase in industrial revenue growth (figure 11). Leaders are now turning their attention towards positioning themselves to survive market disruption and to increase their digital capabilities. ► The EY Industrial Products Balancing Act survey revealed that investing in the following six big bets is what differentiates the leaders from its peers. The survey covered 500 companies and their C-suite leaders across six industries (chemicals and base materials, machinery and electrical systems, industrial and mechanical components, packaging, paper and wood and aerospace and defence). Six bets for DIP players 1 4 Customer connectivity Digital assimilation • Faced with empowered customers who are • There has been explosive growth of new more demanding coupled with changing technologies such as big data, analytics, business models (use of seamlessly artificial intelligence, and the Internet of connected products), companies in Things. Companies that embrace digital manufacturing need to seek new ways to early on have witnessed improved connect with their end consumers. productivity and customer satisfaction. • E.g., an industrial conglomerate generates • E.g., an European DIP conglomerate additional revenues from third-party app acquired a smart building IoT systems developers that offer services over their provider that enhances building digital platforms. performance by gathering multiple streams of data, thus improving transparency and lowering energy usage. 2 5 Supply chain reinvention Big data and analytics • The supply chain must be positioned to meet • Amid challenges such as a lack of analytics the needs of today’s digitally savvy awareness among suppliers, limited abilities, consumer, integrating a complex ecosystem resources and talents such as data of suppliers and customers to deliver on scientists, companies need to examine how increasing cost and cash saving demands they can reap the full benefits of big data while still running efficiently. and analytics. • E.g., an aviation company uses 3D-printed • E.g. a DIP conglomerate leveraged machine fuel nozzles for one of its engines. Reducing learning to derive meaningful insights from the number of parts required to make the large volumes of unclean procurement data, nozzle from 20 to one leads to a much saving US$300m of procurement costs shorter supply chain. annually. 3 6 Talent and culture Advances in enterprise • Against competition from technology • With a risk universe that is rapidly changing companies in attracting talent, DIP in the form of disruptions, digitization of companies need to focus on creating a business and loss of sensitive data from supportive culture as well as training and cyber attacks, DIP companies should be upskilling workers. efficiently equipped to ensure business continuity. • E.g., an aerospace manufacturer invested US$100m for a new workforce development • E.g., an aerospace manufacturer launched a program to enhance employees’ digital portfolio of digital solutions along with a literacy through online courses and degree new customizable self-service portal to programs. maximize the operational efficiencies of its aerospace aftermarket business. Private equity briefing: SEA 17
Portfolio transformation helps industrial companies ride the wave of market disruption and remain competitive About 75% of executives believed that portfolio business strategy in times of rapid-speed technology transformation is the leading priority on the advancements need to understand the value of their boardroom agenda. Over the last three years, 29% of own technology to their business. As well, sellers can industrial companies have increased the frequency of achieve strong valuations for their business not only their portfolio reviews. Of which, one-third have from strong operating models and legal structures, but increased the frequency of reviews, citing threats from also from clear communication about the potential digitally-enabled competitors and startups as the impact of technology. Revealingly, 19% of DIP reason. executives did not communicate the impact of technology on the future state of the business, and A key aspect of transformation is related to believed that their sale price would have had benefitted technology; 40% of DIP companies say they recently from doing so. divested to raise funds for technology investment. Going forward, 72% of companies believe that 61% of executives citing the need to fund new technology-driven divestments will increase in the next technology investments as increasing their impetus to 12 months. divest over the coming year. While this makes sense, companies should evaluate divestments not only on the Clearly, such technology-driven divestments and cash that can be generated to support new technology, capital decisions must be taken and executed but also the impact on the overall portfolio as the judiciously. organization builds out its digital capabilities and positions itself to pursue new markets. For a start, these companies that are redefining their Figure 12: Most important factors for board members Figure 13: List of technologies companies plan to use ahead of their next divestment Portfolio transformation (buying and selling assets to Reporting and analytics reshape future portfolio) 88% 73% Cloud computing Impact of increased economic and political 80% uncertainty Cybersecurity software 41% 76% Shareholder activism, including returning cash to Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) software shareholders 68% 36% Software as a Service 62% Increasing regulatory or governmental intervention Robotics process automation 29% 47% Impact of digital technology and transformation to Machine learning business model or threat of digital enabled competitors 30% 18% IT infrastructure 21% Artificial intelligence 9% Private equity briefing: SEA 18
The rise of digital factories, which Sensors characterizes manufacturing in Industry and big 4.0, is powered by a combination of big data data, analytics and physical technology. analytics Manufacturers will need to transform their business models. However, coordinating Cloud the end-to-end digital transformation Blockchain computing across entire value chains that are often (IoT) scattered across the globe, is a challenge. Industry DIP companies are taking a more thoughtful and strategic approach to Advanced 4.0 planning deals. With both equity and M&A valuations at elevated levels, the pressure robotics, on buyers is increasing. artificial intelligence Cybersecurity But executives are acutely aware that the and deals still have to make both strategic and machine financial sense, and are unwilling to learning overpay for assets. Sophisticated Additive methodologies to source potential targets manufacturing or 3D printing will support this growth, along with evolving due diligence techniques and analytics to assess planned acquisitions. Figure 14: Companies that failed to complete or DIP deals in Southeast Asia cancelled a planned acquisition in the past 12 months 74% • One of Asia’s largest defense and engineering groups agreed to acquire a world-leading manufacturer of aircraft components in a deal 26% that values the company at US$630m. This was in line with the Group’s intention to acquire companies in their core business areas of adjacencies, which will result in profitable No Yes revenue streams and a stronger competitive edge. Primary reason for failure • A unit of a Singapore listed utilities, marine 53% and urban development group has divested its Singapore medical waste division for S$20m. This is in line with the Group’s intention to divest peripheral utilities assets to recycle capital and unlock value. Competition from other buyers or price or valuation gap Karambir Anand Partner Transaction Advisory Services Ernst & Young Solutions LLP “ DIP companies are taking a more thoughtful and strategic approach to planning deals. With both equity and M&A valuations at elevated levels, the pressure on buyers is increasing.” Private equity briefing: SEA 19
6 Risk and compliance challenges in emerging markets Across various Southeast Asia (SEA) countries, a strengthening of local legislation and guidelines to be at par with international laws and conventions is observed. Singapore: Indonesia: ► The government announced that it was enhancing ► A Supreme Court Regulation in 2016 provided efforts to keep graft at bay, including reviewing the guidelines for enforcement authorities around Prevention of Corruption Act and boosting manpower handling of corporate crimes including corruption, and at the Corrupt Practice Investigation Bureau. money laundering. ► Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia adopted standards Thailand: in line with ISO 37001:2016 Anti-bribery management ► Amendment to the Organic Act on Counter Corruption systems, a leading voluntary industry standard that for failure to prevent bribery. The Thai Criminal Code provides requirements and guidance to help adds that active and passive bribery are banned. management establish a culture of integrity, transparency and compliance. Vietnam: Malaysia: ► Introduction of a new Penal Code in 2018 to criminalize private sector bribery. The country also ► The Anti-Corruption Commission (Amendment) Act designed and implemented a cyber security law that 2018 was passed in April 2018. The Act penalizes tightens control over the internet and global commercial organizations for corrupt acts by technology companies. associated persons. It also empowers the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission. Private equity briefing: SEA 20
Emerging markets’ perception Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index (TI CPI), which is released annually, ranks 180 countries and territories by their perceived levels of public sector corruption. The index uses a scale of 0 to 100, where 0 is “highly corrupt” and 100 is “very clean”. TI’s most recent CPI continues to show that the majority of regions within SEA are making little or no progress in ending corruption: 41 China 35 Vietnam 40 India 37 37 Indonesia Thailand 84 Singapore 47 Malaysia CPI scores The EY Global Fraud Survey 2018 found that bribery and corrupt practices happen more widely in emerging markets – 52%, compared to the global average of 38%. Similarly, respondents in emerging markets (16%) believe it is common to use bribery in their sector (emerging markets 16% versus global 11%) and to justify cash payments to win or retain business (emerging markets 19% versus global 13%). Insights from EY Global Fraud Survey 2018 Global Emerging markets Bribery and corruption is widespread in business 38% 52% Cash payments justified to win or retain business 13% 19% Bribery is used commonly to win contracts 11% 16% Saket Bhartia Associate Partner Forensic & Integrity Services Ernst & Young Advisory Pte. Ltd. “ Given the increased focus on governance and compliance matters by limited partners, risk and compliance is becoming an even more important element in the due diligence process. There is also a strong focus on corrective actions following the investment.” Private equity briefing: SEA 21
Challenges faced by PEs Some of the recent challenges that PE firms face when monitoring portfolio companies in emerging markets include: ► Not being directly involved in the operations of the company ► Poor governance and lack of transparency ► Limited due diligence on third parties and other integrity risks ► Bureaucratic complexities ► Regulatory pressures (e.g., due to past enforcement actions against the entity) ► Difficulty in keeping abreast with the emerging fraud scenarios or risks in various industries These challenges expose PEs to the following key fraud, bribery, corruption and other risks generally observed in the region as part of pre- and post-investment decisions: Pre-investment Post-investment Financial misstatement risk End use of funds ► Overstatement or advancement of sales, and ► Siphoning of funds through related-party real margins of business transactions and not at arm’s length prices ► Superficial business modelling ► Whether funds have been utilized per the ► Overvaluation of assets and undervaluation business plan of liabilities ► Diversion of funds into unrelated businesses ► Related parties and such transactions are ► Cash sales, unaccounted business transactions not disclosed ► Postponement of major cost items or delay in Financial misstatement risk regular payout to channel partners Bribery and corruption risk ► Overstatement of expenses and unreasonable business transactions ► Involvement in bribery and corruption to meet business goals Other risks ► Irregular payments paid to officials and disclosed under incorrect heads ► Theft of intellectual property (IP) ► Counterfeit and grey market products ► Asset misappropriation ► Violations against regulatory, taxation guidelines, or Other risks compliance norms ► Asset stripping and project cost inflation ► Undisclosed non-compliances (e.g., food safety, ► Involvement in bribes and facilitation pay-outs for environmental issues) business end ► Undisclosed tax evasion, legal cases, demands and ► Significant deviations from loan covenants or agreed disputes with tax authorities financial goals Questions that PE should ask when investing in emerging markets: ► Promoters: can they be relied upon? What is their ► Business practices: what are the business history or background? Are there any significant practices followed by the entity? How are the unknowns that can impact investment in the business practices and issues identified of the future? target compared to industry standard and the country environment? ► Management: what is the integrity and background of key management, especially those who will ► Customers and vendors: are they genuine? continue to work in the organization post- ► Bribery and corruption: what is the level of investment? tolerance when it comes to bribery and corruption? ► Financials: how accurate is the financial Can the business continue without such practices presentation? How can specific issues identified post-investment? during a financial due diligence be verified? Private equity briefing: SEA 22
Best practices followed by PEs when it comes to forensic due diligences and monitoring Pro-active forensic activities pre-investment: Forensic activities post-investment: Before deciding to invest, PEs need to proactively analyze Uncertainties related to valuations, working capital a range of risks to minimize the potential loss of deal value. adjustments and earn-outs, along with increased These risks may include fraud, bribery and corruption investments in emerging markets, expose transacting including conflicts of interest, restrictions on trade and parties to significant risks even after the deal is completed. export, third-party integrity, reputation, and regulatory PEs mitigate and resolve post-closing disputes and ease investigations. Some of the key proactive steps that PE the purchase integration process by conducting firms can take include: appropriate risk mitigation exercises. This can include: Forensic due diligence Investigation, compliance and dispute services ► Assessing the risks of fraud, bribery and corruption, ► Assisting with the development of anti-fraud or ABAC money laundering, economic sanctions and conflicts compliance programs of interest ► Conducting post-closing fraud risk assessments; ► Executing a detailed anti-bribery anti-corruption advising on compliance risk programs and performing (ABAC) due-diligence on the business to ensure compliance monitoring compliance with regulators ► Performing fact-finding transaction testing on ► Leveraging FDA to perform enhanced due diligence selected high-risk transactions with additional data from the acquired business, ► Deploying forensic data analytics (FDA) to identify ► Monitoring the end-use of funds potential red flags ► Proactive Electronic Stored Information (ESI) review ► Conducting integrity due diligence checks (e.g., background checks on key management personnel, ► Conducting fraud investigations vendors and customers) ► Serving as subject-matter expert or testifying expert ► Performing a cyber due diligence on behalf of seller or buyer Belinda Tan Partner Forensic & Integrity Services Ernst & Young Advisory Pte. Ltd. “ Understanding the areas to look at when conducting a due diligence exercise can help PE firms reduce the risk of post-acquisition surprises.” Private equity briefing: SEA 23
7 Our PE service offerings The EY PE team comprises experienced professionals focused on PE and is supported by EY deep sector and functional professionals around the world. ► Lead advisory ► Restructuring ► Performance ► Finance ► Commercial advisory ► Real estate improvement ► Human resources ► Financial diligence ► Divestiture ► Sales force ► Supply chain ► Operational diligence ► Valuation and effectiveness ► IT transformation ► IT diligence business modeling ► Business ► Risk ► Carve-out ► Operational improvement intelligence ► Integration EY PE team Private equity fund Our capabilities ► Focus: provide value creation ► Broad functional knowledge: ► Accelerated approach: customized services across the PE investment capabilities in PE fund structuring, approach that is highly responsive life cycle portfolio audit, strategy, M&A and and provides improved realization ► Dedicated PE experience: all core operating functions; of benefits dedicated teams comprising former experience in revenue ► Global capabilities: dedicated PE operating partners, seasoned enhancement, cost reduction, teams that has extensive cross- operating executives and human capital and border experience with access to management consultants change management. more than 30,000 consultants ► Deep sector experience: primary operating in 140 countries with focus in oil and gas, consumer, deep industry and functional know- industrial, and health care; ability to how tap into sub-sector professionals Private equity briefing: SEA 24
EY contacts Service line contacts Country contacts M&A Indonesia Luke Pais David Rimbo Sahala Situmorang luke.pais@sg.ey.com david.rimbo@id.ey.com sahala.situmorang@id.ey.com +65 6309 8094 +62 21 5289 5025 +62 21 5289 5210 Corporate Finance Strategy Commercial Due Diligence Hertanu Wahyudi hertanu.wahyudi@id.ey.com Karambir Anand Nicolas de Geeter +62 21 5289 5684 karambir.anand@sg.ey.com nicolas.de.geeter@sg.ey.com +65 6309 8089 +65 6309 8148 Malaysia Transaction Support ESG George Koshy Preman Menon george.koshy@my.ey.com preman.menon@my.ey.com Seng Leong Teh Raymond Leong +60 3 7495 8700 +60 3 7495 7811 seng-leong.teh@sg.ey.com raymond.leong@sg.ey.com +62 21 5289 5007 +65 6309 6313 Philippines Transaction Tax Ramon Dizon Marie Stephanie C Tan-Hamed ramon.d.dizon@ph.ey.com marie.stephanie.c.tan-hamed@ph.ey.com Darryl Kinneally +63 2 894 8163 +63 2 894 8338 darryl.kinneally@sg.ey.com +65 6309 6800 Singapore Operational Due Diligence / Value Creation Purandar Rao Vikram Chakravarty purandar.rao@sg.ey.com vikram.chakravarty@sg.ey.com Sriram Changali Alan Huang +65 6309 6560 +65 6309 8809 sriram.changali@sg.ey.com alan.huang@sg.ey.com +65 6309 8555 +65 6309 8108 Thailand Valuation, Modeling & Economics Data Analytics Piyanuch Nitikasetrsoonthorn Vorapoj Amnauypanit piyanuch.nitikasetrsoonthorn@th.ey.com vorapoj.amnauypanit@th.ey.com Andre Toh Xavier Vitiello +66 2 264 9090 +66 2 264 9090 andre.toh@sg.ey.com xavier.vitiello@sg.ey.com +65 6309 6214 +65 6309 8328 Vietnam Toan Quoc Nguyen Du Vinh Tran toan.quoc.nguyen@vn.ey.com du.vinh.tran@vn.ey.com Sector contacts +84 8 3824 5252 +84 8 3824 5252 Consumer Products TMT Regional contacts Geophin George Joongshik Wang geophin.george@sg.ey.com joongshik.wang@sg.ey.com Asia-Pacific Markets & Deal Greater China PE Leader +65 6309 8168 +65 6309 8078 Origination Health care Financial Services Amitava Guharoy Tony Tsang amitava.guharoy@sg.ey.com tony.tsang@cn.ey.com Abhay Bangi /Keith Lostaglio Stuart Last +65 6309 8001 +86 21 2228 2358 abhay.bangi@sg.ey.com / stuart.last@sg.ey.com keith.lostaglio@sg.ey.com Oceania PE Leader Korea PE Leader +65 6309 6720 +65 6309 6151 / +65 6718 1999 Bryan Zekulich Yoon Hyung Chang Oil & Gas Infrastructure bryan.zekulich@au.ey.com yoonhyung.chang@kr.ey.com +61 2 9248 5833 +82 2 3787 6788 Sanjeev Gupta Lynn Tho sanjeev-a.gupta@sg.ey.com lynn.tho@sg.ey.com Global contact +65 6309 8688 +65 6309 6688 Global Real Estate Power & Utilities Andres Saenz Teh Seng Leong Gilles Pascual andres.saenz@parthenon.ey.com seng-leong.teh@sg.ey.com gilles.pascual@sg.ey.com +1 617 478 4619 +62 21 5289 5007 +65 6309 6208 Private equity briefing: SEA 25
EY | Assurance | Tax | Transactions | Advisory About EY EY is a global leader in assurance, tax, transaction and advisory services. The insights and quality services we deliver help build trust and confidence in the capital markets and in economies the world over. We develop outstanding leaders who team to deliver on our promises to all of our stakeholders. In so doing, we play a critical role in building a better working world for our people, for our clients and for our communities. EY refers to the global organization, and may refer to one or more, of the member firms of Ernst & Young Global Limited, each of which is a separate legal entity. Ernst & Young Global Limited, a UK company limited by guarantee, does not provide services to clients. Information about how EY collects and uses personal data and a description of the rights individuals have under data protection legislation is available via ey.com/privacy. For more information about our organization, please visit ey.com. How EY’s Global PE Sector can help your business PE firms, portfolio companies and investment funds face complex challenges. They are under pressure to deploy capital amid geopolitical uncertainty, increased competition, higher valuations and rising stakeholder expectations. Successful deals depend on the ability to move faster, drive rapid and strategic growth and create greater value throughout the transaction lifecycle. EY taps its global network to help source deal opportunities and combines deep sector insights with the proven, innovative strategies that have guided the world’s fastest growing companies. Our clients discover powerful new ways to create unexpected paths to value ─ generating positive economic benefits for both investors and society. That’s the power of positive equity. © 2019 EYGM Limited. All Rights Reserved. EYG no. 002350-19Gbl ED None This material has been prepared for general informational purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon as accounting, tax or other professional advice. Please refer to your advisors for specific advice. The views of third parties set out in this publication are not necessarily the views of the global EY organization or its member firms. Moreover, they should be seen in the context of the time they were made. ey.com Private equity briefing: SEA 26
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