Polish CEP report 2021 - Postal Hub podcast
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Polish CEP report 2021
The Last Mile Experts Polish CEP report 2021 is finally available. This 51-page document is jam packed with the latest data
and covers the period from 2015 up to date and with forecasts to 2023, The report includes historical and forecast market
volumes, values, delivery channels and service type followed by market overview and trends. There are quotations or
commentaries from the best authorities in the Polish last mile, including Rafał Brzoska (founder and CEO of InPost) and
Prof. Arkadiusz Kawa managing director of Łukasiewicz - Institute of Logistics and Warehousing. The report has been
written by Marek Różycki, founder of Masterlink Express (now DPD Polska) and former VP Amazon Logistics Europe, and
Mirek Gral, former COO UPS Polska.
The report is priced at EUR975+VAT (if applicable) which is deductible if the full dataset behind the report (in excel format)
is purchased.
Please find attached a teaser for our report.
For further information or to order a copy of the report, please write to : Info@lmexpert.com
Warsaw, February 2021
1 www.lastmileexperts.com This
Thismaterial is proprietary
material to LMEfor
is intended andthe
mayuse
be used by licensed
of Last users in accordance
Mile Experts withto
and is not thebe
terms of their
shared license
with any other consultancies
POLISH CEP REPORT 2021
CONTENTS
About LME and this report…………………………………..……. 3 Market Trends.......................................................................................................................... 26
Background to the report ............................................................. 3 Parcel Market …………………………………………..…………..... 42
1. Development of OOH last mile solutions .............................................................................. 26
What does the report cover?........................................................ 4 Parcel shops and locker networks ............................................................................................ 27 Economic growth forecasts …………………………………………. 42
Sources and methodology? ……………………………….….……. 6 What will the new last mile be like?........................................................................................... 29 Internet retail growth………………………………………………….. 43
Whom is it useful f or? ................................................................. 6 30
2. Changes in retail patterns ..................................................................................................... Parcel market forecasts ……………………………………..……..... 43
Who was the report written by? ................................................ 7 Increase in direct sales by brands ............................................................................................ 30 Recipients by volume share………………………………….…..….. 44
Emergence and growth of subscription box business model .................................................... 31 Channels by volume…………………………………………….…..... 45
Summary...................................................................................... 15 3. Improvement in carrier IDM................................................................................................... 32 45
Channels by value……………………………….……………….……
Market context and trends .......................................................... 15 4. Increased use of technology in last mile operations.............................................................. 33 46
Channels by volume share …………………………………….…..…
Competitive landscape ................................................................ 17 Hub and depot automation........................................................................................................ 33 47
Destination by volume…………………………………………………
Outlook ........................................................................................ 18 Last mile delivery technology.................................................................................................... 35 47
Destination by value……………………………………………….…..
Expert’s comment………………………………………………...….. 19 Other technologies as AGV’s and UAV’s................................................................................. 36 47
Product by volume………………….…………………………………. 48
Smartlocks blockchain and other emerging technologies......................................................... 37
Contents...................................................................................... 20 Product by value……………………………………………..……..…. 48
5. Same day and premium delivery…………………………….………………………….......... 38
Notes……………………………………………………………….…… 49
6. Evolving role of postal operators ......................................................................................... 39
Polish CEP Market Background ............................................... 21 Terms and Conditions………………………………………………… 50
7. Increased role of brokers to serve the C2X segment.......................................................... 39
Contact………………………………………………………..………... 51
Market definition .......................................................................... 21
Characteristics of the market ....................................................... Competitor Analysis............................................................................................................... 40
22
Business vs. consumer delivery .................................................. Market share by volume........................................................................................................... 40
23
Market share by revenue.......................................................................................................... 41
Other segmentations of the market ......................................... 25
Premium / economy ..................................................................... 25
International / domestic ............................................................... 25
2 www.lastmileexperts.com This material
This material is proprietary is may
to LME and intended
be usedfor the use
by licensed of Last
users Mile Experts
in accordance with the and
termsis
ofnot
theirto be shared
license with any otherCOMMENT FROM PROF. ARKADIUSZ KAWA
The Polish CEP (courier, express and parcel) industry is one of the fast developing and most
interesting markets in Europe. It is driven by the very dynamic development of e-commerce,
which, in turn, is now further reinforced by restrictions on retail trade caused by the pandemic or
restrictions on Sunday trading.
One of the biggest challenges of e-commerce are the various, so-
called, time windows for delivery to individuals and companies. When
couriers deliver parcels to our homes, we are usually in a different
place, e.g. at work. The very popular door-to-door (D2D) deliveries, a
few years ago, are losing their importance. Today, customers want
transparency, flexibility and a greater impact on delivery. They are even
able to cancel their purchase if the delivery option they want is not
available. Given this and the fact that we now have a huge increase in
the number of parcels in the CEP industry, offering out-of-home
delivery, i.e. pick-up and drop-off points (PUDO) and automatic parcel
machines (APM), is a must.
prof. Arkadiusz Kawa
Managing Director of Łukasiewicz – Institute of Logistics and
Warehousing
They have many advantages compared to door-to-door deliveries. Nearly 100% of deliveries are
made the first time. The dense networks available in Poland makes these places close to the
customer. They are also convenient because we can pick up the package "on the way", e.g. when
shopping or coming back from work. They also make the process of returning products easier.
Finally, they help solve the last mile problem, which is the most complex process of e-commerce
logistics.
3 www.lastmileexperts.com This
Thismaterial is proprietary
material to LMEfor
is intended andthe
mayuse
be used by licensed
of Last users in accordance
Mile Experts withto
and is not thebe
terms of their
shared license
with any other consultanciesPOLISH CEP REPORT 2021
ABOUT THIS REPORT
Background to the report
Polish CEP Market Report 2021 covers the market structure, size, growth, key
trends and competitive landscape.
Last mile markets, worldwide, have grown dramatically over the last year due to
COVID19 accelerated e-commerce growth.
Poland has been one of the fastest growing European markets, especially in the
area of out of home (OOH) – pick up and drop off points (PUDO) and parcel
lockers. This is driven by the fast growth of e-commerce, B2C parcel volumes and InPost Parcel Machine #10000
the demand from vendors and consignees for ever more consumer centric and
flexible last mile services.
Amazon has been a major catalyst for change in the Western world and although they are yet to enter the Polish market, the key players, notably
InPost have taken away learnings from the e-commerce behemoth and have made this one of the most innovative CEP markets in Europe.
Over the last few years, there has been significant change in market shares, parcel types (B2C vs B2B) and first or last mile channels (OOH vs D2D).
In this report we seek to understand what is behind these trends and to assess what future impact this will have on the various stakeholders.
4 www.lastmileexperts.com This
Thismaterial is proprietary
material to LMEfor
is intended andthe
mayuse
be used by licensed
of Last users in accordance
Mile Experts withto
and is not thebe
terms of their
shared license
with any other consultanciesPOLISH CEP REPORT 2021
ABOUT THIS REPORT
Background to the report
The market is served by a combination of carriers ranging from Poczta Polska - the national postal operator to
InPost – their former rival in the mail sector but now the dominant parcel locker operator and indeed CEP
player by volume. All key integrators are present (DHL, UPS and FedEx) as are the two major European Ground
networks (DPD and GLS). There are a number of new OOH actors who have become more relevant in recent
years such as Żabka (leading convenience store network) or Ruch (former state newspaper distribution
network). This report looks at how the various players are performing and what we can expect to happen over
the next few years.
The report draws on: What can you find in this report?
LME’s in depth knowledge of this market and the various studies and • The report covers all key players in the Polish market, both for OOH
reports we have already shared in the public domain and D2D.
Our managing partners entrepreneurial past during which he set up, • We define the CEP market to include domestic, intra-European and
from scratch, DPD Polska (formerly Masterlink Express) the player which, international parcels. It also includes B2B, B2C and C2X parcels.
until recently, was the dominant market leader • Volume is calculated in parcels. All volumes are allocated to the
Our consulting work in Poland which has included advising Advent carrier with commercial ownership of the customer. Sub-contracted
International regarding the acquisition and strategy for InPost, advising volumes have been removed as far as possible to avoid double
Allegro in their last mile strategy and bringing DPD to the point of being counting. Values are calculated in PLN (Polish Złotys).
market leader, in the period to 2015.
5 www.lastmileexperts.com This
Thismaterial is proprietary
material to LMEfor
is intended andthe
mayuse
be used by licensed
of Last users in accordance
Mile Experts withto
and is not thebe
terms of their
shared license
with any other consultanciesPOLISH CEP REPORT 2021
Leading carrier shares by volume (illustrative)
Poczta Polska (Polish Post) operators is becoming more focused on
parcels as their mail volumes decline. Unfortunately, due to political
turbulence, management change has been frequent, and the incumbent
carrier seems to have lost the ability to challenge the private sector
players. XXX
Consolidators or parcel brokers continue to grow in serving the C2X XXX
segment, and a leading broker, Apaczka has just been the subject of a XXX
takeover by a leading Polish PE player (Abris), XXX
B2B parcel volumes are growing slightly over GDP levels which contrasts XXX
with explosive volumes for B2C, and more recently C2X parcels. XXX
XXX
XXX
Competitive landscape XXX
The market leaders are InPost by volume and by revenue. The second player is DPD.
Together these make up XX% by volume and XX% by volume. InPost is definitely the
„one to observe: and is estimated to have grown by XXX% over the last year. Their
dominance in lockers (they now have the largest network in Europe) is a key Source: LME, company accounts, press reports, interviews
competitive advantage.
A number of important independent players such as Zabka or Ruch/Orlen have entered the CEP space in the form of infrastructure players but we
expect this to develop to a more complex suite of last mile services.
Amazon already has X large fulfillment centers in Poland and an increasingly large tech team. It has recently posted advertisements for retail roles in
Poland and we expect full market entry in XXXX.
Alibaba is present in the market and is developing fulfillment capability as is Zalando.
The only leading e-commerce players that are absent are eBay, which is arguably the result of its failed attempt to de-throne the incumbent
Marketplace, Allegro, some XX years ago and JD.com.
Allegro has just completed a highly successful IPO and is currently developing its own last mile competence.
6 www.lastmileexperts.com This
Thismaterial is proprietary
material to LMEfor
is intended andthe
mayuse
be used by licensed
of Last users in accordance
Mile Experts withto
and is not thebe
terms of their
shared license
with any other consultanciesPOLISH CEP REPORT 2021
Channels by volume in mln parcels Channels by value in mln PLN
2023E 2023E
2022E 2022E
2021E 2021E
2020E 2020E
2019 2019
2018 2018
2017 2017
2016
2016
2015
2015
The share of OOH (XXX, XXX, XX) in volume terms is greater than in value terms due to lower cost of the last mile and smaller parcels.
7 www.lastmileexperts.com This
Thismaterial is proprietary
material to LMEfor
is intended andthe
mayuse
be used by licensed
of Last users in accordance
Mile Experts withto
and is not thebe
terms of their
shared license
with any other consultanciesYou can also read
