PLACES PEOPLE LOVE Countryside Properties PLC - Full Year Results 2020
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PLACES PEOPLE LOVE Countryside Properties PLC Full Year Results 2020 Abbotsfield, St Helens, Merseyside
GROUP PERFORMANCE • Significant impact from COVID-19 – Housing market closure impacted results – Production returned to normal levels – Focus on employees, partners and customers – Established communities fund to support vulnerable people through pandemic • Strong visibility of future earnings – Strong, secured order book up 23% to £1,432m – Growing Partnerships bid pipeline of 102,734 plots – Key framework agreements signed in the year – Trading at upper end of 2021 consensus expectations • Equity issue to fund our growth strategy – Strong balance sheet – New regions taking shape already – Second modular panel factory under construction 2 FULL YEAR RESULTS DECEMBER 2020
STRATEGY TO DELIVER ENHANCED GROWTH AND VALUE • Accelerated, sector-leading growth – Resilience from mixed tenure delivery – Superior returns through the cycle – Redefined purpose and values • Improving our focus on Sustainability – Experienced team appointed – Launch of new Sustainability approach in 2021 • We will manage our growth in a controlled way – Strengthened oversight of key disciplines – Continue to recruit and develop the best people – Focus on delivering for all our stakeholders • Focused on maximising long-term value for shareholders 3 FULL YEAR RESULTS DECEMBER 2020
ENHANCED PARTNERSHIPS GROWTH STRATEGY ON TRACK 10,000 homes p.a. from Partnerships, driven by three new regions Partnerships Revenue £m in South and Midlands £629m Management teams in place in South West and South London FY2015-2019 CAGR Office locations identified 34% 837 Underpinned by new framework opportunities 635 629 Delivery period 477 of enhanced We will deliver our second modular panel factory in 2021 285 350 growth plan FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY23 FY24 We will accelerate eight Partnerships South developments from the pipeline Discussions with partners ongoing Partnerships EBIT £m Detailed re-programming of all eight schemes underway £33m Confident accelerated planning consents will be achieved 128 111 Delivers £130m to £150m of cumulative, incremental profit across FY22 to FY24 79 Delivery period 57 33 of enhanced 40 growth plan FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY23 FY24 4 FULL YEAR RESULTS DECEMBER 2020
ADVISORS APPOINTED TO FACILITATE SEPARATION • Divisions have operated together since NEW 2023 TARGETS IPO, benefitting from: – Shared stakeholders – Strong balance sheet Partnerships Housebuilding – Shared land bank • Long term structural growth • South East footprint • Lower risk mixed tenure model • High quality ‘controlled’ strategic • Differentiated business models now: land bank • Lower capital, driving high returns – Operate largely independently • Clear visibility and resilience of • Larger development sites, driving margin – Have differing capital structures order book • Standardised product type, improving returns • Appointed advisors to facilitate separation 2020 2023 2020 2023 Completions 3,213 c.8,000 Completions 840 c.1,500 Operating Margin 5.2% 15% Operating Margin 7.0% 18% Return on Capital 13.0% >40% Return on Capital 4.9% >25% 5 FULL YEAR RESULTS DECEMBER 2020
Group Partnerships Housebuilding GROUP FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS • Short-term COVID-19 impact from reduced completions Units Operating profit £m and land sales 4,053 £54.2m • No final dividend declared 5,733 234.4 211.4 • Strong forward sales position of £1.4bn 4,295 4,053 – Partnerships: £949m (5,179 homes) 54.2 – Housebuilding: £483m (1,660 homes) FY18 FY19 FY20 FY18 FY19 FY20 • We are managing our growth in a controlled way • Mixed tenure provides resilience and lowers risk against Operating margin % ROCE % uncertain backdrop 5.5% 7.1% • Margin recovers towards target levels by 2023 17.2 37.4 37.8 16.5 [X] [X] 5.5 7.1 Note: Group financials are shown on an adjusted basis to include the proportional contribution of FY18 FY19 FY20 FY18 FY19 FY20 the joint ventures and associate and exclude non-underlying items 7 FULL YEAR RESULTS DECEMBER 2020
Group Partnerships Housebuilding STRONG PRIVATE SALES PERFORMANCE DESPITE LOCKDOWN FY 2020 FY 2019 Net Reservation Rate over time 1.60 Units 4,053 5,733 FY20 Active sites1 124 137 1.20 FY19 Average open sales outlets 63 56 0.80 Cancellation rate 2 23.4% 17.1% 0.40 Net reservation rate2 0.78 0.84 Private ASP3 £390k £380k 0.00 October September • 20% Help to Buy of total completions 2 • 1% use of part-exchange 1 As at 30 September 2020 2 Based on total for the period excluding bulk sales 3 Based on reservations in the year 8 FULL YEAR RESULTS DECEMBER 2020
Group Partnerships Housebuilding SUMMARY OF GROUP INCOME Adjusted measures £m FY 2020 FY 2019 change Revenue 988.8 1,422.8 -31% Operating profit 54.2 234.4 -77% Operating margin 5.5% 16.5% -1,100bps Net interest (13.5) (10.9) +24% Profit before tax 40.7 223.5 -82% Tax (7.0) (41.3) -83% Non controlling interest 0.3 (0.7) +143% Profit after tax 34.0 181.5 -81% EPS (pence per share) 7.4p 40.8p -82% DPS (pence per share) - 16.3p -100% Note: Group financials are shown on an adjusted basis to include the proportional contribution of the joint ventures and associate and exclude non-underlying items 9 FULL YEAR RESULTS DECEMBER 2020
Group Partnerships Housebuilding SUMMARY BALANCE SHEET £m FY 2020 FY 2019 change Intangibles 143.1 170.9 -16% Investment in JVs and associate1 111.3 115.0 -3% Stock and WIP 1,059.1 808.6 +31% Land debtors 13.5 15.7 -14% Land creditors (192.8) (158.3) +22% Overage (31.3) (33.9) -8% Other (115.1) (92.3) +25% Net cash / (debt) 98.2 73.4 +34% Net assets 1,086.0 899.1 +21% 2 TNAV 951.7 737.8 +29% 1 Includes loans to joint ventures 2 Tangible net asset value is calculated as net assets less intangible assets net of deferred tax 10 FULL YEAR RESULTS DECEMBER 2020
Group Partnerships Housebuilding NET CASH £98.2M AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2020 • Further working capital investment into Partnerships • Significant impact from COVID-19 with £225m of 37 £m 98 inventory at 30 September due to delayed £m Cash from operating construction programme (Housebuilding: £150m, 73 profit1 (124) Partnerships: £75m) • Equity placing in Q4 to strengthen balance sheet and FY19 Partnerships 243 FY20 fund Partnerships growth closing working (46) closing capital increase2 • Gearing of (9.0)% Housebuilding working (34) • Adjusted gearing4 of 8.7% capital increase2 Tax and net interest (51) Dividends3 Net proceeds from equity placing 1 Represents Group statutory EBITDA excluding share based payments and profit / loss on disposal of property, plant and equipment 2 Net impact of changes in working capital and dividends received, changes in loans to joint ventures and associate 3 Includes dividends paid to non-controlling interests 4 Adjusted gearing includes land creditors within net debt 11 FULL YEAR RESULTS DECEMBER 2020
Group Partnerships Housebuilding PARTNERSHIPS FINANCIALS FY 2020 FY 2019 change 939 £302k Total completions 3,213 4,425 -27% Private completions Private ASP Revenue £629.4m £837.1m -25% FY 2019: 1,336 FY 2019: £283k Operating profit £32.8m £127.8m -74% 1,390 £145k Operating margin 5.2% 15.3% -1,010bps Affordable completions Affordable ASP 1 TNAV £288.1m £114.2m +152% FY 2019: 1,760 FY 2019: £144k ROCE 13.0% 78.3% -6,530bps 884 £139k 1 Excludes intra Group cash funding PRS completions PRS ASP FY 2019: 1,329 FY 2019: £132k Note: Group financials are shown on an adjusted basis to include the proportional contribution of the joint ventures and associate and exclude non-underlying items 12 FULL YEAR RESULTS DECEMBER 2020
Group Partnerships Housebuilding PARTNERSHIPS OPERATING MARGIN COVID -19 impact (6.0)% 15.3% (2.6)% COVID compliance (3.4)% Operational gearing (2.5)% Prior year (1.8)% 0.2% non-recurring benefits Impact of Mix and 5.2% legacy Westleigh other sites FY19 FY20 13 FULL YEAR RESULTS DECEMBER 2020
Group Partnerships Housebuilding HOUSEBUILDING FINANCIALS FY 2020 FY 2019 change 515 £477k Private completions Private ASP Total completions 840 1,308 -36% Revenue £359.4m £585.7m -39% FY 2019: 841 FY 2019: £500k Operating profit £25.0m £114.8m -78% 301 £180k Operating margin 7.0% 19.6% -1,260bps Affordable completions Affordable ASP 1 TNAV £663.6m £623.6m +6% FY 2019: 419 FY 2019: £191k ROCE 4.9% 25.1% -2,020bps 24 £301k 1 Excludes intra Group cash funding PRS completions PRS ASP FY 2019: 48 FY 2019: £321k Note: Group financials are shown on an adjusted basis to include the proportional contribution of the joint ventures and associate and exclude non-underlying items 14 FULL YEAR RESULTS DECEMBER 2020
Group Partnerships Housebuilding HOUSEBUILDING OPERATING MARGIN COVID -19 impact (7.0)% (2.5)% 19.6% COVID (4.5)% compliance Operational (2.9)% gearing (0.5)% Prior year Lower-margin (2.2)% non-recurring land sales benefits HPI impact 7.0% FY19 FY20 15 FULL YEAR RESULTS DECEMBER 2020
Group Partnerships Housebuilding LAND & COMMERCIAL SALES • Remain a normal part of managing our land bank Profit from Land & Commercial sales • Help manage balance sheet / geographical exposure £15-£20m range £14m • Target £15m to £20m per annum £12m £11m • Land sales delayed at H1 FY20 now complete or £8m terms agreed for FY21 £6m £6m £6m £6m £5m £2m FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21F Land Commercial 16 FULL YEAR RESULTS DECEMBER 2020
Guidance
Group Partnerships Housebuilding SHORT-TERM FOCUS ON AFFORDABLE AND PRS PRS PRS • Agile business model allows us to manage tenure mix 19% 21% Private Private • Lockdown decisions made to move towards 33% 33% non-private tenures FY21 FY22 • Tenure mix for FY21 expected to include one third private homes Affordable Affordable – Net reservation rate to be lower in H1 FY21 48% 46% – Significant visibility through forward sales PRS • Re-evaluating tenure mix for FY22 21% Private • Medium term increase to 40% private drives margin 40% FY23 Affordable 39% 18 FULL YEAR RESULTS DECEMBER 2020
Group Partnerships Housebuilding STRONG BALANCE SHEET SUPPORTS GROWTH Forecast land payment profile £m 50 • £98m of available cash at 30 September FY21 FY22 FY23 FY 40 23 – £300m facility undrawn + 30 – CCFF eligible, also undrawn 20 • £250m raised in H2, of which £100m used to strengthen the Group balance sheet 10 • Housebuilding cash generation helps fund Partnerships 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 H1 H2 H1 H2 growth Land payments to private vendor Land payments to local authority/ registered provider Overage payments to private vendors Overage payments to local authority/ • No dividend declared for FY20 registered providers – Return to paying dividend in 2021 Divisional cash profile £m Net 450 – Level of cover to be balanced against market cash /(debt) Housebuilding growth opportunities 300 150 0 Group (150) Partnerships (300) Sept 20 Sept 21 Sept 22 Sept 23 19 FULL YEAR RESULTS DECEMBER 2020
Group Partnerships Housebuilding 2021 FINANCIAL GUIDANCE Partnerships Housebuilding Group Volume (homes) c.5,000 c.1,000 c.6,000 Private ASP c.£325k c.£480k c.£360k Operating margin1 10-11% 12-14% c.10% Net interest c.£15m Adjusted tax rate c.19.0% Closing net debt £0m-£(50)m Land creditors £300m - £350m 1 Group operating margin is presented after the deduction of central costs 20 FULL YEAR RESULTS DECEMBER 2020
Operational highlights Iain McPherson Group Chief Executive
Group Partnerships Housebuilding WELL POSITIONED FOR RECOVERY IN 2021 • Delivery de-risked through affordable and PRS – Two thirds forward sold for 2021 • Construction programmes on track for delivery – Some planning risks remain – Sites operating at normal levels • Low exposure to build cost inflation – c.70% of 2021 construction spend procured – Inflation currently less than 1% – Impact of no-deal Brexit estimated at
Group Partnerships Housebuilding CONTINUED INVESTMENT IN MODULAR PANEL • 709 homes delivered from Warrington factory in 2020 • Second factory under construction in Bardon, Leicestershire – Production expected to commence in summer 2021 • Total capacity of up to 5,000 modular panel homes per year from 2022 • Increases speed of build, improves return on capital • Further opportunities in other parts of the Group • New manufacturing division in 2021 Modular Factory, Bardon (CGI image) 23 FULL YEAR RESULTS DECEMBER 2020
Group Partnerships Housebuilding STRONG VISIBILITY THROUGH THE ORDER BOOK AND LAND BANK Forward order book £m • Strong forward order book of £949m with 5,179 units 120 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY – Private: £266m (+109%), ASP £314k 100 24+ – Affordable: £559m (+19%), ASP £194k 80 – PRS: £124m (-44%), ASP £141k 60 40 • c.65% of FY21 revenue secured 20 • Significant land bank with 42,442 plots, up 22% on FY19 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 H1 H2 H1 H2 – Represents >9 years supply at 2019 volumes Affordable PRS Private reservations – 11,374 plots won during the year including c.5,000 in Land Bank (inc. Pref Bidder) Land Bank (inc. Pref Bidder) our expanding Midlands regions By Region By Tenure – Continue to be highly selective of opportunities • Broader bid pipeline includes further c.102,000 plots Plots Plots 42,442 42,442 1 1 at 30 Sept 20 at 30 Sept 20 39% North 51% Private 21% Midlands 35% Affordable 40% South 14% PRS 1 Land bank, including preferred bidder 24 FULL YEAR RESULTS DECEMBER 2020
Group Partnerships Housebuilding CASE STUDY–GROWTH OF WEST MIDLANDS REGION Demonstrates ability to execute organic expansion • West Midlands region grown organically since 2017 Unit delivery 1,000 • Mixed tenure delivery accelerates growth 800 Private Affordable / PRS • Margin takes time to target as private homes reach around 35% 600 400 • Region at 800 units and c£20m EBIT 200 0 FY FY FY FY Maturity 2017 2018 2019 2020 (pre-COVID Plan) EBIT delivery 25 Margin 20 grows to £20m 15% £17m 15 £13m 10 5 £5m £1m 0 FY FY FY FY Maturity 2017 2018 2019 2020 (pre-COVID Plan) 25 FULL YEAR RESULTS DECEMBER 2020
Group Partnerships Housebuilding HOUSEBUILDING ON TRACK TO RETURN TO SCALE • Strategy focused on efficiency, margin and ROCE improvement Operating margin performance 7.0% • Rebalancing delivery to include Western Home Counties 19.6% 18% 18.4% • Strategic land underpins future gross margin improvement 15.9% 16.6% • Operational efficiencies and cost savings – Increased standardisation 7.0% – Potential for increased timber frame utilisation FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY23 • Sales recovered strongly in the South East, supported in part by Government policy Medium term targets (FY23) • Land sales of £15m to £20m per year VOLUME c.1,500 homes OPERATING ROCE MARGIN 18% >25% 26 FULL YEAR RESULTS DECEMBER 2020
Group Partnerships Housebuilding STRATEGIC LAND BANK • Strategic land bank underpins margin improvement and cash generation Land bank by ownership status • Over 19 years of supply at 2019 volumes Controlled 8% 1,878 plots • Owned and controlled: 7,917 plots Option 68% 17,125 plots • Under option: 17,125 plots Owned 24% 25,042 – GDV of £4,192m, embedded gross margin of £993m 6,039 plots plots • Balance of strategic and short-term land provides visibility and flexibility – 67% of next 3 years planned completions are owned/controlled – 73% of next 3 years planned completions have planning 24,303 25,042 • Land bank length and quality reduces cash investment required to grow 19,778 14,153 15,741 Without Planning and improve margins 10,337 9,441 10,150 9,301 With Planning FY FY FY 2018 2019 2020 27 FULL YEAR RESULTS DECEMBER 2020
Group Partnerships Housebuilding INCREASED FOCUS ON SUSTAINABILITY • Our purpose is to create places where people love to live, Sustainability is embedded with sustainable communities built to last throughout our organisation – We invest in developing resilient mixed-tenure communities The Board of Directors – We have a role in creating a more sustainable built environment Executive Committee – We deliver high quality homes through experienced and passionate people Risk Health, Safety Social Value and Divisional Management Environment and Sustainability Boards • Sustainability strategy focused on social and environmental impact Committee Quality Committee Committee • Recognised with over 381 awards for our sustainability and design practices Sustainability credentials validated by third parties • Investment made in 2020 to strengthen our sustainability and operating capabilities as we accelerate growth 28 FULL YEAR RESULTS DECEMBER 2020
Closing remarks
Group Partnerships Housebuilding CURRENT TRADING AND OUTLOOK 9-week trading FY 2021 FY 2020 Open sales outlets 59 61 Visitors per outlet per week 4.3 5.2 Net reservation rate 0.50 0.85 Private ASP £402k £401k • Strong forward order book • Positive HPI to date • Limited build cost increase exposure • Trading at upper end of 2021 consensus operating profit expectations 30 FULL YEAR RESULTS DECEMBER 2020
Group Partnerships Housebuilding CLEAR STRATEGY TO DELIVER ENHANCED GROWTH Our priorities are clear: Our strategy has evolved • Operate as a sustainable business to bring more focus to • Execute delivery of our growth strategy how we work as well as highlighting our • Deliver sector leading volume growth and high returns Sustainability credentials in Partnerships • Optimise Housebuilding operating performance • Continue to unlock value from strategic landbank • Reorganise Group to facilitate separation 31 FULL YEAR RESULTS DECEMBER 2020
Q&A
Appendix
Group Partnerships Housebuilding CONTINUED FOCUS ON MAINTAINING QUALITY Total completions Health & Safety Build quality Customer satisfaction 4,053 224 (Accident Injury Incident Rate)1 0.22 (NHBC RIs per home)2 90.6% (NHBC RAF)3 5,733 0.22 0.22 220 227 224 0.21 0.21 92.5% 90.6% 88.6% 4,295 4,053 162 84.6% 3,389 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 1 The number of reportable incidents per 100,000 people at risk 2 Defects reported per plot at NHBC inspections at key build stages 3 The percentage of customers returning an NHBC post-completion survey who would recommend us to a friend 34 FULL YEAR RESULTS DECEMBER 2020
Group Partnerships Housebuilding RECONCILIATION OF REPORTED TO ADJUSTED MEASURES £m FY 2020 FY 2019 Revenue 892.0 1,237.1 Add: share of revenue from associate and joint ventures 96.8 185.7 Adjusted revenue 988.8 1,422.8 Operating (loss)/profit (5.4) 170.4 Add: non-underlying items 42.4 17.2 Add: share of operating profit from associate and joint ventures 17.2 46.8 Adjusted operating profit 54.2 234.4 Adjusted operating profit margin 5.5% 16.5% 35 FULL YEAR RESULTS DECEMBER 2020
Group Partnerships Housebuilding NON-UNDERLYING ITEMS £m Total Impairment of goodwill (18.5) Restructuring costs (3.5) Ground rent assistance scheme (10.0) Amortisation of acquisition related intangibles (10.2) Deferred consideration relating to Westleigh (0.2) FY 2020 (42.4) 36 FULL YEAR RESULTS DECEMBER 2020
Group Partnerships Housebuilding JOINT VENTURES AND ASSOCIATE Our share of results £m Partnerships Housebuilding Group Revenue 44.1 52.7 96.8 Expenses (35.8) (43.8) (79.6) Operating profit 8.3 8.9 17.2 Finance income/(costs) (0.3) 0.3 - Income tax expense - (0.2) (0.2) Profit for the period 8.0 9.0 17.0 37 FULL YEAR RESULTS DECEMBER 2020
Group Partnerships Housebuilding ADJUSTED NET FINANCE COSTS BREAKDOWN £m FY 2020 FY 2019 change Cash items Interest on bank debt 5.4 3.4 +59% Interest receivable (0.2) (0.6) (67)% 5.2 2.8 +86% Non-cash items Net unwind of discount 6.5 7.5 (13)% Amortisation of debt finance fees 0.7 0.6 +17% Unwind of lease liabilities 1.1 - +100% 8.3 8.1 +2% Associate and JV interest - - - Adjusted net finance costs 13.5 10.9 +24% 38 FULL YEAR RESULTS DECEMBER 2020
Group Partnerships Housebuilding IFRS 16 “LEASES” • IFRS 16 “Leases” adopted for first time in FY20 £m FY 2020 • Recognition of all leases on balance sheet Right of use assets 26.3 Lease liabilities (30.5) – Main leases relate to offices, factories and company cars Other working capital 2.7 • Small impact on TNAV at 30 September 2020 Impact on TNAV (1.5) • Lease expense replaced with depreciation and interest £m FY 2020 • Lease liabilities are not included in Group net debt Reduced operating lease expenditure 7.6 Increased depreciation (7.8) Impact on operating profit (0.2) Increased finance costs (1.1) Impact on profit before tax¹ (1.3) 1 PBT includes (-£0.7m) impact of non-underlying costs, primarily driven by restructuring costs relating to the Millgate and London offices 39 FULL YEAR RESULTS DECEMBER 2020
Group Partnerships Housebuilding HOUSE PRICE INFLATION • ASP of £364k driven by negative HPI in Housebuilding, offset by Underlying house price inflation by price band geographic mix and moderate inflation in Partnerships (2019: £367k) (0.5%) • Continued focus on first-time buyers 1,454 • 91% of homes under £600k (0.6%) • +1.3% HPI in Partnerships • -2.5% HPI in Housebuilding 5.3% (4.4%) (6.4%)
Group Partnerships Housebuilding GROWTH DRIVES MARGIN AND ROCE IMPROVEMENT • Investments from placing are delivering by 2023 Partnerships 2020 2023 • Partnerships Completions 3,213 c.8,000 – Significant growth through new regions Operating Margin 5.2% 15% – Change in tenure mix improves operating margin Return on Capital 13.0% >40% – ROCE recovers as investments reach maturity • Housebuilding Housebuilding 2020 2023 – Back to operating scale of c.1,500 homes Completions 840 c.1,500 – Operating margin and ROCE back to target levels Operating Margin 7.0% 18% • Group Return on Capital 4.9% >25% – Delivery up 66% on 2019 levels – Significant improvement in operating margin and ROCE GROUP 2020 2023 – Cash generation from 2022 onwards Completions 4,053 c.9,500 Operating Margin 5.5% 15-16% Return on Capital 7.1% >30% 41 FULL YEAR RESULTS DECEMBER 2020
DISCLAIMER Cautionary statement regarding forward-looking statements Some of the information in this document may contain projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events or the future financial performance of Countryside Properties PLC and its subsidiaries (the Group). You can identify forward-looking statements by terms such as “expect”, “believe”, “anticipate”, “estimate”, “intend”, “will”, “could”, “may” or “might”, the negative of such terms or other similar expressions. Countryside Properties PLC (the Company) wishes to caution you that these statements are only predictions and that actual events or results may differ materially and as such undue reliance should not be placed on these statements. The Company does not intend to update these statements to reflect events and circumstances occurring after the date hereof or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. Many factors could cause the actual results to differ materially from those contained in projections or forward-looking statements of the Group, including among others, general economic conditions, the competitive environment as well as many other risks specifically related to the Group and its operations. Past performance of the Group cannot be relied on as a guide to future performance. 42 FULL YEAR RESULTS DECEMBER 2020
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