National Housing market update - January 2018 - REINSW
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Housing market
update
National
January 2018
©2017 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential. 1
The value of Australian housing sits at $7.5
trillion Number of dwellings
9.9 million
Residential Real Estate Outstanding
$7.5 Trillion mortgage debt
$1.71 trillion
Australian Superannuation
$2.5 Trillion Household wealth
held in housing
Australian Listed Stocks 52.2%
$1.8 Trillion
Commercial Real Estate Total sales p.a.
471,917
$0.948 Trillion
Gross value of
sales p.a.
$298.3 billion
Source:
©2017 CoreLogic, RBA,
RP Data Pty Ltd ASX, ABS,
t/as CoreLogic APRAAll rights reserved. Confidential.
Asia Pacific. 2Capital city dwelling values posted their first
quarterly fall since April 2016 while regional
values edged higher over the Dec-17 quarter
Quarterly change in dwelling values Quarterly change in dwelling values to Dec-17
8% National -0.3%
Combined capitals Combined regionals
Combined regionals 0.5%
6%
Combined capitals -0.5%
4% Canberra 1.0%
Darwin -2.9%
2%
Hobart 3.1%
0% Perth 0.1%
Adelaide 0.3%
-2%
Brisbane 0.3%
-4% Melbourne 0.9%
Dec-89 Dec-96 Dec-03 Dec-10 Dec-17 Sydney -2.1%
-4% -2% 0% 2% 4%
Source:
©2017 CoreLogic
RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential. 3Only Sydney, Adelaide and Canberra
recorded a lower annual value change in
2017 than in 2016
Annual change in dwelling values Annual change in dwelling values to Dec-17
50% National 4.2%
Combined capitals Combined regionals
Combined regionals 3.8%
40%
Combined capitals 4.3%
30% Canberra 4.9%
Darwin -6.5%
20%
Hobart 12.3%
10% Perth -2.3%
Adelaide 3.0%
0% Brisbane 2.4%
Melbourne 8.9%
-10%
Sydney 3.1%
Dec-82 Dec-89 Dec-96 Dec-03 Dec-10 Dec-17
-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
Source:
©2017 CoreLogic
RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential. 4Annual change in dwelling values
50%
40% Sydney dwelling values
have fallen by -2.1%
30%
over the final quarter of
20% Sydney 2017 however, they are
10% 3.1% higher over the
past year. Over the last
0%
12 months, house
-10% values are 2.1% higher
Combined
-20%
capitals and unit values are up
Dec-97 Dec-02 Dec-07 Dec-12 Dec-17 5.4%.
Source:
©2017 CoreLogic
RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential. 5Annual change in dwelling values
50%
40%
Dwelling values have
increased by 0.9% over
30%
the three months to
Melbourne
20% December 2017 in
Melbourne. Over the
10%
past year dwelling
0% values are 8.9% higher
-10% Combined
with house values
capitals rising 9.1% and unit
-20%
Dec-97 Dec-02 Dec-07 Dec-12 Dec-17
values 8.4% higher.
Source:
©2017 CoreLogic
RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential. 6Annual change in dwelling values
50%
40%
Brisbane home values
increased by 0.3%
30%
over the three months
20% to December 2017 and
10% are 2.4% higher over
the past year. House
0%
values have increased
-10% Combined Brisbane by 3.1% over the past
capitals
-20% year while unit values
Dec-97 Dec-02 Dec-07 Dec-12 Dec-17
have fallen by -1.2%.
Source:
©2017 CoreLogic
RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential. 7Annual change in dwelling values
50%
Dwelling values in
40%
Adelaide increased by
30% 0.3% over the fourth
20%
Adelaide quarter of 2017 and
are 3.0% higher over
10%
the past year. Over
0% the year, house values
-10% Combined
have increased by
capitals 3.3% and unit values
-20%
Dec-97 Dec-02 Dec-07 Dec-12 Dec-17 have increased by
0.5%.
Source:
©2017 CoreLogic
RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential. 8Annual change in dwelling values
50%
Perth dwelling values
40%
Perth
increased by 0.1%
30% over the three months
20%
to December 2017
however, they are
10%
-2.3% lower over the
0% past year. In 2017
-10% Combined
house values have
capitals fallen by -2.6% and
-20%
Dec-97 Dec-02 Dec-07 Dec-12 Dec-17 unit values have fallen
by -0.9%.
Source:
©2017 CoreLogic
RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential. 9Annual change in dwelling values
50%
Hobart
Dwelling values in
40%
Hobart rose 3.1% over
30% the three months to
20%
December 2017 and
are 12.3% higher over
10%
the past year. House
0% values have increased
-10% Combined
by 12.9% over the
capitals past 12 months and
-20%
Dec-97 Dec-02 Dec-07 Dec-12 Dec-17 unit values have
increased by 9.1%.
Source:
©2017 CoreLogic
RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential. 10Annual change in dwelling values
50%
Darwin dwelling
40%
values fell by -2.9%
30% over the three months
20%
to December 2017 and
are -6.5% lower over
10%
the past year. At the
0% end of December
-10% Combined
Darwin
2017, dwelling values
capitals in Darwin were -21.5%
-20%
Dec-97 Dec-02 Dec-07 Dec-12 Dec-17 lower than their
historic peak.
Source:
©2017 CoreLogic
RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential. 11Annual change in dwelling values
50%
Dwelling values in
40%
Canberra increased
30% 1.0% over the final
20%
Canberra quarter of 2017 and
they are 4.9% higher
10%
over the past year.
0% House values have
-10% Combined
increased by 5.8%
capitals over the year while
-20%
Dec-97 Dec-02 Dec-07 Dec-12 Dec-17 unit values are 2.1%
higher.
Source:
©2017 CoreLogic
RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential. 12Transaction numbers remain lower than a year
ago due to fewer settled sales in the largest
capital cities
Number of settled sales, combined capitals Year on year change in annual sales
40,000 National -4.8%
35,000 Combined regionals -2.2%
30,000 Combined capitals -6.4%
25,000 Canberra -6.3%
Darwin 2.5%
20,000
Hobart 3.2%
15,000
Perth 1.5%
10,000
Adelaide -0.1%
5,000 Brisbane -8.2%
0 Melbourne -11.2%
Dec-97 Dec-02 Dec-07 Dec-12 Dec-17 Sydney -5.6%
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5%
Source:
©2017 CoreLogic
RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential. 13The annual rate of rental growth is higher
than a year ago in most capital cities
however, it has started to slow recently
Annual change in dwelling rents Annual change in dwelling rents to Dec-17
12% National 2.7%
Combined capitals Combined regionals
10% Combined regionals 3.0%
Combined capitals 2.6%
8%
Canberra 4.9%
6% Darwin -1.5%
4% Hobart 9.4%
Perth -2.5%
2%
Adelaide 3.1%
0%
Brisbane 0.2%
-2% Melbourne 4.3%
Dec-07 Dec-09 Dec-11 Dec-13 Dec-15 Dec-17 Sydney 3.0%
-5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
Source:
©2017 CoreLogic
RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential. 14Gross rental yields are starting to trend
higher as rental growth outpaces value
growth in many cities
Gross rental yields Gross rental yields as at Dec-17
6% National 3.6%
Combined regionals 4.9%
Combined capitals 3.3%
5% Canberra 4.4%
Darwin 5.9%
Hobart 5.0%
4% Perth 3.9%
Adelaide 4.2%
Combined capitals Combined regionals Brisbane 4.3%
3% Melbourne 2.9%
Dec-07 Dec-09 Dec-11 Dec-13 Dec-15 Dec-17 Sydney 3.1%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
Source:
©2017 CoreLogic
RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential. 15Although homes are still selling rapidly,
the days on market figure for Sydney and
Melbourne has risen over recent months
Average rate of vendor discounting, Combined capitals Average days on market, Combined capitals
0.0% 100
-2.0% 80
60
-4.0%
40
-6.0% 20
-8.0% 0
Nov 05 Nov 07 Nov 09 Nov 11 Nov 13 Nov 15 Nov 17 Nov 05 Nov 07 Nov 09 Nov 11 Nov 13 Nov 15 Nov 17
Combined caps -5.6% Combined caps 39
Canberra -3.3% Darwin 90
Melbourne -4.3% Perth 58
Sydney -5.2% Brisbane 55
Brisbane -5.4% Adelaide 47
Hobart -5.6% Sydney 36
Adelaide -5.7% Canberra 35
Perth -7.9% Melbourne 31
Darwin -11.4%
Hobart 29
-12.0% -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Source:
©2017 CoreLogic
RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential. 16Nationally there are fewer properties
advertised for sale than a year ago but
across individual capital cities the trends
vary substantially
Number of new and total properties advertised for sale, 28 days to 31 December 2017
No of new 12 mth No of total 12 mth No of new 12 mth No of total 12 mth
Capital city State
listings change (%) listings change (%) listings change (%) listings change (%)
Sydney 2,001
6,645 -7.1%
-7.3% 19,953
25,677 26.5%
19.6% NSW 5,531 -8.8% 41,811 4.5%
Melbourne 2,656
8,743 -9.2%
-0.2% 25,152
31,955 4.2%
3.0% Vic 4,861 -13.7% 43,898 -9.4%
Brisbane 2,158
4,202 -1.6%
-2.9% 18,263
20,845 -1.7%
1.1% Qld 6,020 -0.9% 59,466 -5.9%
Adelaide 2,364
986 -4.2%
0.9% 7,615
9,093 3.9%
7.1% SA 1,735 -4.5% 17,054 -2.2%
Perth 2,021
3,954 -5.6%
-9.9% 18,866
21,122 -12.7%
-6.4% WA 3,268 -6.7% 32,237 -6.1%
Hobart 277
432 -13.4%
-15.5% 1,011
1,177 -40.3%
-35.6% Tas 794 -16.9% 5,457 -26.9%
Darwin 150
74 19.4%
2.0% 1,444
1,550 -1.0%
-3.6% NT 110 25.0% 1,983 -1.2%
Canberra 200
709 -2.9%
-7.0% 1,675
2,241 4.6%
1.6% ACT 205 -3.3% 1,748 5.2%
Combined capitals 10,373
27,199 -6.0%
-4.3% 113,660
93,979 3.6%
2.0% National 22,524 -7.5% 203,654 -5.1%
Source:
©2017 CoreLogic
RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential. 17Auction clearance rates have eased since
early in 2017 while volumes have been
relatively high
Combined capital city auction clearance rates and volumes
100.0% 4,500
90.0% 4,000
80.0% 3,500
Number of auctions
70.0%
Clearance rate
3,000
60.0%
2,500
50.0%
2,000
40.0%
1,500
30.0%
20.0% 1,000
10.0% 500
0.0% 0
Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17
Source:
©2017 CoreLogic
RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential. 18Housing demand: overseas migration
continues to trend much higher
Quarterly change in national population
140,000
120,000
100,000 Rolling 4 qtr average
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
Jun-82 Jun-87 Jun-92 Jun-97 Jun-02 Jun-07 Jun-12 Jun-17
Net overseas migration Natural increase Annual change in population
100,000 50,000 AUST 1.6%
45,000 ACT 1.7%
80,000 NT 0.1%
40,000 TAS 0.6%
60,000
35,000 WA 0.8%
40,000 SA 0.6%
30,000 QLD 1.6%
20,000 25,000 VIC 2.3%
NSW 1.6%
0 20,000
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5%
Jun-87 Jun-97 Jun-07 Jun-17 Jun-87 Jun-97 Jun-07 Jun-17
Source:
©2017 CoreLogic, ABS
RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential. 19Although dwelling approvals are down from
their record high levels they have increased
each of the past three months
Number of dwellings approved for construction, National
14,000
Houses Units
12,000
Rolling 6 mth average
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Oct-87 Oct-92 Oct-97 Oct-02 Oct-07 Oct-12 Oct-17
Source:
©2017 CoreLogic, ABS
RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential. 20Demand for finance from first home buyers has
grown significantly over recent months, largely
due to stamp duty concessions in NSW and Vic
Value of housing finance commitments by borrower type
$18.0
Owner occupier FHB
$16.0
Owner occupier non-FHB
$14.0 Owner occupier refinance
$12.0 Investors
$10.0
($b)
$8.0
$6.0
$4.0
$2.0
$0.0
Oct-97 Oct-01 Oct-05 Oct-09 Oct-13 Oct-17
Source:
©2017 CoreLogic, ABS
RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential. 21Regulatory changes and higher mortgage rates,
have impacted on investment demand and
interest-only demand has shrunk significantly
Annual change in housing credit
15.0%
% of mortgages originated on interest only terms
10.0% 50%
APRA 10% speed limit
45.6%
45%
5.0% 40%
Owner occupier housing Investment housing
0.0% 35%
30%
Nov-07 Nov-09 Nov-11 Nov-13 Nov-15 Nov-17
25% APRA 30% origination target
Monthly change in housing credit 20%
1.0% 16.9%
15%
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-11
Sep-12
Sep-13
Sep-14
Sep-15
Sep-16
Sep-17
0.0%
-1.0% Owner occupier housing Investment housing
Nov-07 Nov-09 Nov-11 Nov-13 Nov-15 Nov-17
Source:
©2017 CoreLogic, APRA
RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential. 22Mortgage rates remain around historic lows
for owner occupiers but have edged higher for investors
Standard variable mortgage rates over time
18.0%
16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
Dec-57 Dec-62 Dec-67 Dec-72 Dec-77 Dec-82 Dec-87 Dec-92 Dec-97 Dec-02 Dec-07 Dec-12 Dec-17
Avg mortgage rate by product type, Change in avg mortgage rate since low point,
Dec 2017 Dec 2017
Variable, 3-year fixed 4.45% Variable, 3-year fixed 0.30%
Investor
Investor
Variable, discounted 5.10% Variable, discounted 0.35%
Variable, standard 5.80% Variable, standard 0.30%
Variable, 3-year fixed 4.10% Variable, 3-year fixed 0.10%
occupier
occupier
Owner
Owner
Variable, discounted 4.50% Variable, discounted 0.05%
Variable, standard 5.20% Variable, standard -0.05%
Source:
©2017 CoreLogic, RBA
RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential. 23About Us
CoreLogic Australia is a wholly owned subsidiary of CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX), which is the largest property data and analytics
company in the world. CoreLogic provides property information, analytics and services across Australia, New Zealand and Asia, and
recently expanded its service offering through the purchase of project activity and building cost information provider Cordell. With
Australia’s most comprehensive property databases, the company’s combined data offering is derived from public, contributory and
proprietary sources and includes over 500 million decision points spanning over three decades of collection, providing detailed
coverage of property and other encumbrances such as tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information.
With over 20,000 customers and 150,000 end users, CoreLogic is the leading provider of property data, analytics and related services
to consumers, investors, real estate, mortgage, finance, banking, building services, insurance, developers, wealth management and
government. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and geo spatial
services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk.
CoreLogic employs over 650 people across Australia and in New Zealand. For more information call 1300 734 318 or visit
www.corelogic.com.au
CoreLogic produces an advanced suite of housing market analytics that provides key insights for understanding housing market conditions at a granular
geographic level. Granular data is often used for portfolio analysis and benchmarking, risk assessments and understanding development feasibility and
market sizing. It gives industry professionals valuable modules which provide essential analytics and insights for decision making and strategy formation
within the residential property asset class. We can tailor reports to suit your business requirements.
Call us on 1300 734 318 or email us at ask@corelogic.com.au or visit us at www.corelogic.com.au
©2017 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential. 24Granular Data and Analytics Market Scorecard: Monitor and measure market share and performance of real estate agents at an individual office or a Franchise brand level across Australia. Identify the competing brands and independents at a suburb, postcode, user defined territory and State level. Easily locate growth opportunities and market hotspots, and view the performance of the established offices in these new areas of interest. Market Trends: Detailed housing market indicators down to the suburb level, with data in time series or snapshot and segmented across houses, units and land. The Market Trends data includes key housing market metrics such as median prices, median values, transaction volumes, rental statistics, vendor metrics such as average selling time and vendor discounting rates. CoreLogic Indices: The suite of CoreLogic Indices range from simple market measurements such as median prices through to repeat sales indices and our flagship hedonic home value indices. The CoreLogic Hedonic index has been specifically designed to track the value of a portfolio of properties over time and is relied upon by Australian regulators and industry as the most up to date and accurate measurement of housing market performance. Economist Pack: A suite of indices and indicators designed specifically for Australian economic commentators who require the most up to date and detailed view of housing market conditions. The economist pack includes the CoreLogic Hedonic indices for capital cities and ‘rest of state’ indices, the stratified hedonic index, hedonic total return index, auction clearance rates and median prices. Investor Concentration Report: Understanding ownership concentrations is an important part of assessing risk. Areas with high investor concentrations are typically allocated higher risk ratings due to the over-representation of a particular segment of the market. Through a series of rules and logic, CoreLogic RP Data has flagged the likely ownership type of every residential property nationally as either owner occupied, investor owned or government owned. Mortgage Market Trend Report: CoreLogic RP Data is in a unique position to monitor mortgage related housing market activity. Transaction volumes, dwelling values and mortgage related valuation events all comprise our Mortgage market trend report which provides an invaluable tool for mortgage industry benchmarking and strategy. ©2017 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential. 25
Disclaimer Disclaimer In compiling this publication, RP Data Pty Ltd trading as CoreLogic has relied upon information supplied by a number of external sources. CoreLogic does not warrant its accuracy or completeness and to the full extent allowed by law excludes liability in contract, tort or otherwise, for any loss or damage sustained by subscribers, or by any other person or body corporate arising from or in connection with the supply or use of the whole or any part of the information in this publication through any cause whatsoever and limits any liability it may have to the amount paid to CoreLogic for the supply of such information. Queensland Data Based on or contains data provided by the State of Queensland (Department of Natural Resources and Mines)2017. In consideration of the State permitting use of this data you acknowledge and agree that the State gives no warranty in relation to the data (including accuracy, reliability, completeness, currency or suitability) and accepts no liability (including without limitation, liability in negligence) for any loss, damage or costs (including consequential damage) relating to any use of the data. Data must not be used for direct marketing or be used in breach of the privacy laws. South Australian Data This information is based on data supplied by the South Australian Government and is published by permission. Copyright in that data belongs to the South Australian Government. The South Australian Government does not accept any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the published information or suitability for any purpose of the published information or the underlying data. New South Wales Data Contains property sales information provided under licence from the Land and Property Information (“LPI”). CoreLogic is authorised as a Property Sales Information provider by the LPI. Victorian Data The State of Victoria owns the copyright in the Property Sales Data which constitutes the basis of this report and reproduction of that data in any way without the consent of the State of Victoria will constitute a breach of the Copyright Act 1968 (Cth). The State of Victoria does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this report and any person using or relying upon such information does so on the basis that the State of Victoria accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any errors, faults, defects or omissions in the information supplied. Western Australian Data Based on information provided by and with the permission of the Western Australian Land Information Authority (2017) trading as Landgate. Australian Capital Territory Data The Territory Data is the property of the Australian Capital Territory. No part of it may in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, microcopying, photocopying, recording or otherwise) be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted without prior written permission. Enquiries should be directed to: Director, Customer Services ACT Planning and Land Authority GPO Box 1908 Canberra ACT 2601. Tasmanian Data This product incorporates data that is copyright owned by the Crown in Right of Tasmania. The data has been used in the product with the permission of the Crown in Right of Tasmania. The Crown in Right of Tasmania and its employees and agents: a) give no warranty regarding the data's accuracy, completeness, currency or suitability for any particular purpose; and b) do not accept liability howsoever arising, including but not limited to negligence for any loss resulting from the use of or reliance upon the data. Base data from the LIST © State of Tasmania http://www.thelist.tas.gov.au ©2017 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential. 26
Thank You ©2017 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential. 27
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