MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS - US Daily Brief
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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS - US Daily Brief 12-08-22
By Adam Burrowes
The White House
- President Biden has no public events scheduled.
Elections Countdown:
❖ 2022 Midterm Elections: 88 days
❖ 2024 Presidential Election: 816 days
Inflation Reduction Act
The House of Representatives will return from recess today to synch with the Senate on the
Inflation Reduction Act. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) has a razor thin four-vote margin
in the House but chatter from Capitol Hill suggests that the package should pass without issue
as the Democrat Reps most likely to oppose the bill have indicated they will vote in favour.
• There are still interesting political dynamics to watch which may have implications for
the midterm election campaign, beyond the passage of the bill.
• If Pelosi can corral the entire Democrat caucus to vote, “yes,” it will be a firm sign that
unity is beginning to return to the party. This was not the case early this year when
headlines spoke of, “30-year high,” for Democrat House retirements. At the time, it was
taken as a sign of a disconnect between lawmakers, the White House, and Democrat
leadership. It was also taken as a signal that Democrats feared a midterm capitulation.
• The Hill wrote in February: “The number of House Democrats not seeking re-election
this year has hit a 30-year high — a bleak benchmark reflecting frustrations with the
gridlock on Capitol Hill, the toxicity of relations between the parties and the challenges
facing Democrats as they fight to keep their slim majority in the lower chamber.”
• The other side plot to follow is whether Republicans will bloc vote against the bill.
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (D-CA) has indicated that he intends to whip
against the bill but there may be concerns among moderate Republicans that a “no”
vote on a broadly popular climate and health care bill may play poorly at the ballot box
in November.
• Josh Siegel writes in Politico: “Former GOP lawmakers and Republican allied groups
warn the party risks overreaching and alienating key voting groups such as young
people and suburban voters who want climate action in the face of worsening wildfires,
droughts and flooding. Such alienation could complicate Republican efforts to retake
one or both houses of Congress, they say.”
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Business Address – MNI Market News, 5th Floor, 69 Leadenhall Street, London, EC3A 2 BG• The House will convene at 10:00 ET 15:00 BST for a rules vote on the parameters of
the debate. Three hours of debate will follow from the Budget, Ways, and Means, and
Energy and Commerce committees. There will be no amendments as the vote is on a
Senate amendment to a House bill. A final vote is likely to take place at around 15:00
ET 20:00 BST.
• 09:15 ET 14:15 BST: House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) and Majority Whip
Jim Clyburn (D-SC) will hold a press conference on the bill.
Congressional Business
The House will meet at 09:00 ET 14:00 BST
The Senate is out for August
Committee Schedule –
Trump Investigation
Attorney General Merrick Garland made the unusual step of holding an ad hoc press
conference from the Department of Justice to provide an update on the search of former
President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida.
• Garland spoke for five minutes and said that he personally approved the search of
Mar-a-Lago. He used the presser to publicly defend the Department of Justice and the
FBI. He said: “I will not stand by silently when their integrity is unfairly attacked.”
• Garland justified the presser by saying that the “powerful public interest” in the case
justified taking the rare step of unsealing the court filing connected to the search
warrant. The unsealing of the warrant is expected to happen today when the presiding
Florida judge acts on the DOJ’s motion.
• The White House has maintained distance from the DOJ investigation saying they
were unaware that Garland was planning to hold a press conference, as they were
unaware of plans to search Mar-a-Lago.
• Politico: “It seems likely that Garland would not have asked the court to make the
warrant and property receipt public if Trump had not gone nuclear with his accusations
that the attorney general and FBI had weaponized law enforcement against him.”
• The New York Times reported that, “the Justice Department felt it had to act because
the materials in Trump’s possession were related to national security, possibly “special
access programs,” a designation typically reserved for extremely sensitive operations
carried out by the United States abroad.”
• Trump responded saying, “not only will I not oppose the release of documents related
to the unAmerican, unwarranted, and unnecessary raid and break-in of my home in
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Business Address – MNI Market News, 5th Floor, 69 Leadenhall Street, London, EC3A 2 BGPalm Beach, Florida, Mar-a-Lago. I am going a step further by ENCOURAGING the
immediate release of those documents.”
• The Washington Post then published an article claiming that, “classified documents
relating to nuclear weapons were among the items FBI agents sought in a search of
former president Donald Trump’s Florida residence on Monday.”
• In the immediate aftermath of the Mar-a-Lago search, concern increased that a
narrative of the political weaponization of DOJ and the FBI pushed by some
Republican lawmakers could enhance the risk of political violence.
• This appeared to play out yesterday in Cincinnati, Ohio when an armed man was shot
dead by police after attempting to attack an FBI building. The perpetrator was named
by local officials as Ricky Walter Shiffer, a frequent poster on Trump’s social media
platform, Truth Social, who was reportedly present at Capitol Hill on January 6.
• NBC: “The two officials said Shiffer appeared to have posted in recent days about his
desire to kill FBI agents after former President Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago residence
was searched.”
• 09:00 ET 14:00 BST: Rep. Mike Turner (R-OH), the ranking Republican on the House
Intelligence Committee will hold a press conference on the FBI raid of Mar-a-Lago.
Midterms
Republican House Rep Liz Cheney (R-WY) has made a last-minute appeal to Wyoming
Democrats to temporarily switch allegiance to cast a vote for her in Tuesday's Wyoming
Republican primary election.
• Cheney released a campaign ad yesterday calling for a broad coalition of Republicans,
independents, and Democrats to mobilise and push her through a primary race to
continue to hold former President Donald Trump to account.
• Cheyney claimed in the ad, "the lie that the 2020 presidential election was stolen is
insidious... It is a door Donald Trump opened to manipulate Americans to abandon
their principles, to sacrifice their freedom, to justify violence, to ignore the rulings of our
courts and the rule of law."
• Cheney's website has instructions for Democrats wishing to change affiliation to cast
their vote for her: "You may also change your party affiliation at your polling place on
the day of the primary or general election..."
• Earlier this week, Democratic Reps Dean Phillips (MN) and Tom Malinowski (NJ) took
to twitter to urge Wyoming Democrats to switch allegiance in order to vote for Cheney.
• Malinowski said: "Wyoming Democrats can put country over party too, by registering
to vote for her in the Republican primary. I hope you do."
• The latest polling from Wyoming's Casper Start-Tribune showed Cheney trailing
Trump-endorsed Harriet Hageman 52% to 30%.
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Business Address – MNI Market News, 5th Floor, 69 Leadenhall Street, London, EC3A 2 BG• Cheney is the most high-profile Republican in the House of Representatives who voted
to impeach Donald Trump and sits as Vice Chair of the January 6 Committee
investigating Trump's role in the unrest on Capitol Hill. Tuesday’s primary may
illuminate if this week’s furore surrounding Trump’s legal troubles will influence his
electability.
• This seem unlikely as support for Trump has increased in 2022 despite the
intensification of his legal troubles.
Chart 1: Share of Republican voters who would vote for Donald Trump if the 2024
Republican primary was held today, %
Source: Morning Consult
Iran
State Department Deputy Press Secretary Vedant Petal provided an update on the current
state of the nuclear talks with Iran. The messaging remains the same: According to the State
Department, a deal is ready and waiting to go, Iran must choose to accept it, or not.
• Patel: “We and the Europeans have made quite clear that we are prepared to
immediately conclude and implement the deal we negotiated in Vienna for a mutual
return to the full implementation of the JCPOA. But for that to happen, Iran needs to
decide to drop their additional demands that go beyond the JCPOA. Ultimately, the
choice is theirs. This administration along with our allies and partners are preparing
equally for scenarios with and without a mutual return to the full implementation of the
JCPOA. The President and Secretary Blinken will only conclude a deal that we
determine is in the national security interest of the United States.”
• Patel continued by again hinting that the administration has a “plan B” in place to
prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon: “This administration has been clear that
it will ensure Iran never acquires a nuclear weapon, and we believe the best path to
achieving that goal is through diplomacy. And as long as we believe pursuing a JCPOA
is in U.S. national security interest, we’re going to continue to do so.”
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Business Address – MNI Market News, 5th Floor, 69 Leadenhall Street, London, EC3A 2 BGPoll of the Day
More polling data suggests that the White House is continuing to win the messaging battle
with the GOP on the taxation provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act.
• Morning Consult: “Conservative media has echoed GOP lawmakers’ efforts to portray
an increase in IRS funding as a potential auditing-free-for-all manned by 87,000 new
IRS agents, but the majority of voters said they were not concerned about the prospect
of being personally audited by the IRS, a view that was consistent among Democrats
(74%), independents (78%) and Republicans (77%).”
• The report continues: “More specifically, when it comes to possibly being personally
audited, 44% of voters said they were “not at all concerned,” including 47% of
Republicans and 41% of Democrats… Regardless of party affiliation, the share of
voters who said they were “very” or “somewhat” concerned about being audited
personally was about 1 in 4.”
• A separate report from the University of Maryland’s Program for Public Consultation
has found that 68% percent of Americans support the IRS provision.
Chart 2: Concerns about being personally audited by the IRS, %
Source: Morning Consult
Chart 3: Support for Inflation Reduction Act IRS provisions, %
Source: Program for Public Consultation, University of Maryland
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