Volaris: the leading ultra-low-cost airline serving Mexico, USA and Central America - November 2017
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Disclaimer The information ("Confidential Information") contained in this presentation is confidential and is provided by Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V., (d/b/a Volaris, the "Company") confidentially to you solely for your reference and may not be retransmitted or distributed to any other persons for any purpose whatsoever. The Confidential Information is subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed, it has not been independently verified and it may not contain all material information concerning the Company. Neither the Company, nor any of their respective directors makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) regarding, or assumes any responsibility or liability for, the accuracy or completeness of, or any errors or omissions in, any information or opinions contained herein. None of the Company nor any of their respective directors, officers, employees, stockholders or affiliates nor any other person accepts any liability (in negligence, or otherwise) whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. No reliance may be placed for any purposes whatsoever on the information set forth in this presentation or on its completeness. This presentation does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation for sale or subscription of or solicitation or invitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for any securities, nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied on in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. Recipients of this presentation are not to construe the contents of this presentation as legal, tax or investment advice and should consult their own advisers in this regard. This presentation contains statements that constitute forward-looking statements which involve risks and uncertainties. These statements include descriptions regarding the intent, belief or current expectations of the Company or its officers with respect to the consolidated results of operations and financial condition, and future events and plans of the Company. These statements can be recognized by the use of words such as "expects," "plans," "will," "estimates," "projects," or words of similar meaning. Such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and actual results may differ significantly from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors and assumptions. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward looking statements, which are based on the current view of the management of the Company on future events. The Company does not undertake to revise forward-looking statements to reflect future events or circumstances. 2
Volaris: snapshot at 30,000 feet Serving 68 destinations throughout Mexico (40), USA (24) and Central America (4) Sep 17 CAGR 2008 2016 LTM (08-16) Unit cost (CASM ex- 5.5 4.8 4.9 -1.6% fuel; cents, USD)(1) Passenger demand 3.2 14.3 15.6 20.6% (RPMs, bn) Aircraft 21 69 67 16.0% (End of period) Routes 42 162 164 18.4% (End of period) Passengers 3.5 15.0 16.2 20.0% (mm) Operating revenue 4.4 23.5 24.7 23.3% (bn, MXN) Adj. EBITDAR 0.7 8.9 7.0 37.4% (bn. MXN) Adj. ROIC 11% 20% 14% +9 pp. (pre-tax) 3 (1) Converted to USD at an average period exchange rate
Volaris’ flight path for demand stimulation and continued growth Capacity increase Cost reduction More Resilient ULCC ancillaries (“You decide”) business model driving high, profitable growth “Clean”, low base fares More customers 4
Volaris’ consistent execution of its ULCC business model well positioned for growth Accomplishments Opportunities Strong penetration of Mexican air Attractive emerging air travel market in travel market Mexico Diversified and resilient point-to-point Continue geographic diversification network through international growth Bus to air substitution Continue route frequency increase Successful price unbundling Upside in ancillary revenue Flexible fleet plan and utilization; Proven ancillary revenue model capacity management Sustained profitability with strong Continue cost reductions balance sheet 5
Accomplishments
Volaris has a best-in-class unit cost structure Long-term unit cost advantage CASM and CASM ex-fuel (LTM September 2017, USD cents) Cost structure • Economies of scale In line with best-in-class - Dilute fixed costs ULCCs - High seat density 13.6 • Young and fuel efficient fleet 13.0 13.2 - Sharklet rollout 3.5 2.9 11.1 11.4 2.5 - Average age of 4.6 years 10.3 10.2 10.5 2.5 - NEO Engines rollout 2.6 9.1 8.8 9.0 2.3 - Low fuel burn 3.0 2.5 7.7 7.4 2.5 2.4 2.5 6.9 2.0 • Productive network 2.0 2.7 5.7 5.5 10.7 - Point-to-point 10.1 10.1 1.6 1.7 8.4 8.8 8.1 - No connections complexity 7.3 7.7 6.6 6.4 6.5 4.9 5.7 4.7 4.0 3.8 • High aircraft utilization - 3Q17 average 13 block hours per day Latin American carriers US LCCs WW LCCs US network carriers Continued cost improvement potential (1) DCOMPS = Direct Competitors: Delta, American Airlines, Alaska Airlines and United | (Average CASM and CASM ex-fuel) Note: Non-USD data converted to USD using an average exchange rate for the period 7 Source: Airlines public information
Non-ticket revenues continue to grow, with upside potential Non-ticket revenue per passenger Volaris (MXN) per passenger Ancillaries 2011-2016 CAGR: + 21,9% • Apply revenue management techniques - Pricing by route, season, day 424 381 - Fully dynamic pricing for some products 338 279 • Add products 204 211 - New products & services 142 - Enhancements to existing products • Improve presence - More touch-points to sell ancillaries throughout 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD Sep the journey 2017 - Allow customization Best-in class ULCCs, including first bag fee • Benefit from network diversification (Sep 2017 LTM, as % of total operating revenue)(1) - More international capacity 45% 48% 43% • First checked bag - USA and Puerto Rico 27% - Costa Rican AOC Volaris Wizz Allegiant Spirit Increasing non-ticket revenue allows to Non-ticket reduce fare further and stimulate revenue per demand pax (USD) $21.91 $31.44 $29.20 $52.51 (1) Converted to USD using an average exchange rate for the period 8 Source: Airlines public information
Network enhancement: connecting the dots and diversifying further LTM Sep 2017 Volaris diversified its network by starting operations in 19 routes and 5 stations Volaris’ LTM July 2017 new routes New routes Domestic International Guadalajara 3 2 Mexico City - 6 Costa Rica - 3 Other - 5 Total 3 16 New stations Central DOM USA America Cozumel Miami San Salvador Milwaukee Managua New International New Domestic New Volaris Costa Rica 9 Note: Excludes routes and stations announced to start operations
…supporting strong capacity growth 9M 2017 capacity growth contribution (YoY) + Additional frequencies 9.5% + Joining existing airports 2.5% + New airports 1.2% + Volaris Costa Rica 1.1% = Total ASM growth 14.3% Our network is well positioned for diversified growth 10
Growth opportunities
In recent years, Mexico’s volume growth has been robust despite challenging economic environment Mexico passenger market volume has increased since 2011 Passenger volume (millions) Main industry growth 2011 - 2016 CAGR: +8.6% 88 drivers 82 75 14 • Strong demand and 66 13 increasing middle 61 12 57 11 class 52 10 27 30 8 9 26 • LCC gaining market 21 23 through low fares 19 19 - 44% LCC share(1) 37 42 45 25 28 30 33 • High improvement potential: - Domestic air trips 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 LTM Sep 2017 per capita in Domestic USA Other international Mexico 0.42 vs. Colombia 0.66 4.0% 8.3% 8.3% 8.3% 12.3% 10.4% 10.6% (3) Yoy growth GDP growth (2) 4.0% 4.0% 1.4% 2.3% 2.6% 2.3% 1.8% GDP multiplier 1.0 2.1 6.1 3.7 4.7 4.5 6.4 3x GDP multiplier in recent years (1) Considers Volaris and VivaAerobus domestic market share LTM September 2017 (2) Values according to INEGI´s new methodology (3) Yoy growth for LTM September 2016 vs. LTM September 2017 12 Source: DGAC-SCT, INEGI and Banco de México
Volaris growth has surpassed market growth in both domestic and international markets Domestic passenger growth (%) 25.2% 24.8% 23.0% 19.7% 13.0% 12.8% 10.3% 9.4% 8.6% 7.9% 7.7% 8.8% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 LTM Sep 2017 Market Volaris International passenger growth (%) 33.3% 26.9% 23.4% 19.6% 13.8% 10.3% 11.6% 10.2% 8.1% 8.8% 8.0% 6.5% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 LTM Sep 2017 Market Volaris 13 Source: DGAC
Volaris has been the engine of growth for VFR and leisure markets in Mexico Segment passenger CAGR Volaris vs. market (2010-2016) Volaris’ main growth drivers Tijuana • Low costs allow Volaris to offer lower fares and make flying 10% 12% Hermosillo possible Market Volaris • Fleet growth growth 5% 17% - Up-gauging: A320neo with 186 seats and A321 with 230 seats Monterrey - Young and fuel efficient: Los Cabos average of 4.6(1) years; new Culiacan 9% 38% generation aircraft • Productive network with high 10% 28% 8% 23% Guadalajara Cancun utilization Vallarta 13% 27% - Around 20 new routes per year 8% 19% 11% 34% - Avg. 13 block hours/day in 3Q Mexico City 2017 • High and healthy load factors 11% 61% - 85% in LTM Sep 2017 • 27% domestic passengers market share as of LTM Sep. 2017 2016, Volaris was the source of 46% of the growth among Mexican carriers (1) Data as of September 2017 14 Note: Markets not mutually exclusive, contested domestic markets
Significant untapped opportunities Domestic – growth potential of approx. 110 International – growth potential of approx. 130 routes (4) routes (4) Number of routes (1) Number of routes (2) 50 100 40 75 30 50 20 10 25 0 0 USA (VFR) USA (Leisure) CAM, SAM, Canada, Routes served Growth potential Caribbean In terms of air trips per capita Mexico has plenty potential to grow 2016 air trips per capita (domestic)(5) 2.23 0.61 0.43 0.36 0.34 0.33 0.25 United States Chile Brazil Colombia Peru Mexico Argentina (1) Minimum stage length of 170 miles (4) Figures calculated as of June 2017 (2) Minimum stage length of 200 miles; CAM stands for Central America; SAM stands (5) Data from the World Bank for South America Source: World bank, DGAC, DIIO MI Market Intelligence for the Aviation 15 (3) South and northbound leisure routes Industry and ALTA
Volaris contributed by stimulating demand from bus to air substitution Significant upside for air travel Bus switching program Total bus passengers in Total air travel passengers Mexico (mm) in Mexico (mm) Education Mass media campaigns “Tarifa no + camion” positioning 2,971 Digital capabilities 2,758 Trial 2,683 2,891 Ticket giveaway #Nomáscamión First sell 82 55 40 Strong conversion 80 29 rate 74 33 42 28 2012 2016 2012 2016 ULCC model First, economy and other Domestic Attracting 1st Executive and luxury International time flyers 16 Source: Secretaría de Comunicaciones y Transportes (SCT), 2016
Volaris’ Costa Rican AOC provides growth potential in Central America Central America key insights Potential markets (1) New York Chicago • The right market - Costa Rica is top three middle class growth Los Angeles of LATAM - Costa Rica GDP growth of 4.2% in 2016 Dallas San Antonio Houston - Population of ~45M in Central America Orlando Miami - VFR potential in the region and to the USA, Costa Rica is the country with the most La Habana Guadalajara Puerto Rico immigrants as a % of its population Mexico City Cancun Santo Domingo - Bus switching potential • The right moment San Salvador Guatemala Managua Cartagena - No ULCC presence in the region - Local competitors have 38% of capacity San José, CR Medellin share while US carriers 46% Bogota - High average fare and yield environment Quito • The right ULCC model Guayaquil - Growth sustainable and proved model, easily translatable to Central America - Ancillary revenue potential Lima - USD denominated revenue contributing to FX natural hedge La Paz Volaris’ Central American operation full potential of 18-22 aircraft (1) Subject to authorization from the corresponding authorities 17 Source: World Bank, ALTA, MI-DIIO, CEPAL Infare
Drivers of continued profitable growth Uniquely positioned to capture growth in underpenetrated Mexican aviation market • Grow ancillary revenue • Up-gauge fleet from to world class ULCC A319 to A320/A321 benchmarks • Neo incorporation • Price, product, Increase - Fuel efficiency presence Reduce total unit costs revenues Expand Fleet • 44 additional aircraft • Expand network network growth to be delivered geographically • Deepen footprint in • Higher seat density markets with high configuration demand stimulation 18
Fleet and financials
Volaris’ fleet plan supports its strategy to drive lower unit costs Contractual fleet obligations (number of aircraft)(1) 79 • A321 (CEO and NEO) 69 71 5 - 230 seats (up-gauge) 10 - ~10% CASM dilution(2) 10 10 6 13 • A320 NEO 28 - Combined fuel consumption 28 reduction by approx. 15-16% per 28 seat(2) 15 15 • A320 CEO with sharklets 15 15 - Fuel consumption reduction by 12 8 approx. 3%(2) 2016 2017E 2018E • All PDP requirements fully A319 A320 financed for next four years A320 w/sharklets A320neo w/sharklets A321 w/sharklets A321neo w/sharklets Backlog of 41 Aircraft to support growth (3) Note: NEO stands for the Airbus new engine option; CEO stands for the Airbus current engine option (1) Net fleet after additions and returns (2) Source: Airbus 20 (3) Figure calculated as of November 15, 2017
High growth and solid financial performance Revenues Adj. EBITDAR 30 10 8.9 2011 - 2016 CAGR: +21.5% 23.5 24.7 2011 - 2016 CAGR: +48.3% 7.0 18.2 6.5 (MXN bn) (MXN bn) 13.0 14.0 15 11.7 5 8.9 2.8 3.1 2.5 1.2 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 LTM Sep 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 LTM Sep 2017 2017 Revenue CAGR 2011 - 2016 LTM September 2017 Adj. EBITDAR margin 22% 30% 20% 28% 26% 17% 25% 22% 21% 21% 20% 11% 10% 9% 4% 2% Volaris Azul Interjet Latam Gol Aeromexico Copa Avianca Azul Volaris Copa Aeromexico Latam Avianca Gol Interjet 21 Source: Airlines public information
Volaris’ international expansion has been key in constructing a better hedge for FX volatility Increasing international operation brings higher USD revenues Volaris’ revenues breakdown, MXN billion (International revenues priced in USD) 11.7 13.0 14.0 18.2 23.5 18.2 24% 26% 27% 31% 28% 33% 76% 74% 73% 69% 72% 67% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD Sep 2017 Domestic International 22
Strong balance sheet and liquidity, well funded for continued growth Liquidity-cash and equivalents as a % of LTM Op. Revenue • Unrestricted cash of $5.4 billion pesos 22% (US$ 295 million) as of Sep 30, 2017. • Net cash position of $3.0 billion pesos 12% (US$ 164 million) as of Sep 30, 2017. 10% 9% 9% 7% 7% 6% • Adjusted net debt to EBITDAR of 5.6x as of Sep 30, 2017. • Fully financed pre-delivery payments. Volaris Avianca Copa Latam Aeromexico Interjet Azul Gol Adj. net debt / EBITDAR • Expected 2017 net CAPEX (US$ 120 to - 140 million): 7.1x • PDPs: from US$ 60 to 65 million, 5.6x 5.6x net of PDP reimbursements 5.1x 5.2x 5.3x 4.8x • Major maintenance: US$ 50 to 60 million • Other: from US$ 10 to 15 million 2.7x Copa Azul Latam Aeromexico Gol Avianca Volaris Interjet 23 Non-USD data converted to USD using an end of period exchange rate for the period Source: Airlines public information
Appendix
Fuel price protection Period Total % hedged(1) Avg. price (gal/USD$) Instrument 4Q17 57% $1.40 Call 1Q18 50% $1.63 Call 2Q18 50% $1.74 Call 3Q18 45% $1.78 Call 4Q18 35% $1.85 Call 25 (1) Approximate percentage of gallons hedged as of June 30, 2017
Consolidated statements of operations summary % of total operating MXN millions unless otherwise stated (3) 2014A 2015A 2016A 2016A(1) 3Q 2017 3Q 2017(2) revenues (USD (USD millions) millions) Passenger 11,303 14,130 17,790 861 4,773 262 73 Non-ticket 2,733 4,049 5,722 277 1,809 99 27 Total operating revenues 14,037 18,180 23,512 1,138 6,582 362 100 Other operating income (22) (193) (497) (24) (8) - - Fuel 5,364 4,721 5,741 278 1,698 93 26 Aircraft and engine rent expenses 2,535 3,525 5,590 271 1,384 76 21 Landing, take off and navigation expenses 2,066 2,595 3,272 158 989 54 15 Salaries and benefits 1,577 1,903 2,420 117 695 38 11 Sales, marketing and distribution expenses 817 1,089 1,413 68 468 26 7 Maintenance expenses 665 875 1,344 65 324 18 5 Other operating expenses 490 698 952 46 249 14 4 Depreciation and amortization 343 457 537 26 150 8 2 Total operating expenses 13,833 15,669 20,773 1,005 5,948 327 90 6 EBIT 204 2,510 2,740 133 634 35 10 Operating margin (%) 1.5 13.8 11.7 11.7 9.6 9.6 Finance income 23 47 103 5 30 2 - Finance cost (32) (22) (35) (2) (20) (1) - Exchange gain, net 449 967 2,170 105 125 7 2 Income tax expense (39) (1,038) (1,457) (71) (39) (2) (1) Net income 605 2,464 3,519 170 731 40 11 Net margin (%) 4.3 13.6 15.0 15.0 11.1 11.1 EPS Basic and Diluted (Pesos) 0.60 2.43 3.48 0.17 0.72 0.04 EPADS Basic and Diluted (Pesos) 5.98 24.35 34.78 1.68 7.22 0.40 (1) Full year 2016 figures converted to USD at December end of the period spot exchange rate $20.6640 for convenience purposes only (2) 3Q 2017 figures converted to USD at September end of the period spot exchange rate $18.20 for convenience purposes only 26 (3) Audited financial information 2014A – 2016A
Consolidated statements of financial position summary MXN millions unless otherwise stated (5) 2014A 2015A(6) 2016A 2016A(1) 3Q 2017 3Q 2017(7) (USD (USD millions) millions) Cash and cash equivalents 2,265 5,157 7,071 342 5,373 295 Current guarantee deposits 545 873 1,167 56 1,303 72 Other current assets 879 1,193 3,313 160 4,542 178 Total current assets 3,689 7,224 11,551 559 9,915 545 Rotable spare parts, furniture and 2,223 2,550 2,525 122 3.548 195 equipment, net Non-current guarantee deposits 3,541 4,693 6,560 317 5,941 326 Other non-current assets 452 765 1,146 55 961 598 Total assets 9,905 15,232 21,782 1,054 20,365 1,119 Unearned transportation revenue 1,421 1,957 2,154 104 2,453 135 Short-term financial debt 823 1,371 1,051 51 1,491 82 Other short-term liabilities 2,524 3,745 4,683 227 4,354 239 Total short-term liabilities 4,768 7,073 7,888 382 8,298 456 Long-term financial debt 425 220 943 46 900 49 Other long-term liabilities 242 1,113 2,157 104 1,665 92 Total liabilities 5,435 8,407 10,988 532 10,863 597 Total equity 4,470 6,825 10,794 522 9,502 522 Total liabilities and equity 9,905 15,232 21,782 1,054 20,365 1,119 Net debt (2) (1,017) (3,566) (5,077) (246) (2,982) (164) Adjusted debt (3) 18,990 26,268 41,125 1,990 44,762 2,459 Adjusted net debt (4) 16,725 21,111 34,053 1,648 39,389 2,164 (1) Full year 2016 figures converted to USD at December end of the period spot exchange rate $20.66 for convenience purposes only (2) Net debt = financial debt - cash and cash equivalents (3) Adjusted debt = (LTM aircraft rent expense x 7) + financial debt (4) Adjusted net debt = adjusted debt - cash and cash equivalents (5) Audited financial information 2014A – 2016A (6) Certain amounts related to prepaid income tax and guarantee deposits, presented in the consolidated statement of financial position have been reclassified in 2015A, in order to be comparative with the classification between current and non-current assets presented during 2016A 27 (7) 3Q 2017 figures converted to USD at September end of the period spot exchange rate $18.20 respectively, for convenience purposes only
Consolidated statements of cash flows summary MXN millions unless otherwise stated (3) 2014A 2015A 2016A 2016A(1) 3Q 2017 3Q 2017(2) (USD (USD millions) millions) Cash flow from operating activities Income before income tax 644 3,502 4,977 241 769 42 Depreciation and amortization 343 457 537 26 150 8 Guarantee deposits (695) (1,165) (1,957) (95) (303) (17) Unearned transportation revenue 27 536 196 10 843 46 Changes in working capital and provisions 14 (261) (2,773) (134) (1,844) (100) Net cash flows provided (used in) by operating activities 334 3,070 979 47 (385) (21) Cash flow from investing activities Acquisitions of rotable spare parts, furniture, equipment and intangible assets (1,603) (1,456) (2,259) (109) (565) (31) Pre-delivery payments reimbursements 396 670 1,733 84 - - Proceeds from disposals of rotable spare parts, furniture and equipment 22 185 498 24 - - Net cash flows used in by investing activities (1,185) (601) (28) (1) (565) (31) Cash flow from financing activities Treasury shares purchase (7) - (17) (1) - - Proceeds from exercised stock options - 23 20 1 1 - Interest paid (23) (42) (39) (2) (23) (1) Other finance costs (11) (40) (138) (7) - - Payments of financial debt (400) (801) (1,531) (74) (207) (11) Proceeds from financial debt 966 925 1,716 83 497 27 Net cash flows provided by financing activities 525 65 11 1 268 15 (Decrease) increase in cash and cash equivalents (326) 2,533 962 47 (681) (37) Net foreign exchange differences 141 359 952 46 73 4 Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of period 2,451 2,265 5,157 250 5,981 329 Cash and cash equivalents at end of period 2,265 5,157 7,071 342 5,373 295 (1) Full year 2016 figures converted to USD at December end of the period spot exchange rate $20.66 for convenience purposes only (2) 3Q 2017 figures converted to USD at September end of the period spot exchange rate $18.20 for convenience purposes only 28 (3) Audited financial information 2014A – 2016A
You can also read