U.S. Election Model Update - Mark Zandi, Chief Economist Bernard Yaros, Assistant Director XXXXX, Title - Moody's Analytics
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U.S. Election Model Update Mark Zandi, Chief Economist Bernard Yaros, Assistant Director XXXXX, Title October 2020
Agenda
1. Who Will Be the Next President?
2. Which State Will Determine the Presidency?
3. U.S. Congressional Races
4. Wildcards
October 2020 21 Who Will Be the Next
President?Biden Will Win a Nailbiter
How states will vote if nonincumbent turnout is typical
Democrat
Republican
Electoral count:
Democrats: 279
Republicans: 259
Source: Moody’s Analytics Note: Results reflect Oct 2020 forecast
October 2020 4How a Biden Blowout Would Look Like
How states will vote if nonincumbent turnout is high
Democrat
Turns Democrat
Republican
Electoral count:
Democrats: 352
Republicans: 186
Source: Moody’s Analytics Note: Results reflect Oct 2020 forecast
October 2020 5Trump Can Still Win if Nonincumbent Turnout Is Low
How states will vote if nonincumbent turnout is low
Democrat
Republican
Turns Republican
Electoral count:
Democrats: 209
Republicans: 329
Source: Moody’s Analytics Note: Results reflect Oct 2020 forecast
October 2020 6President Trump’s Approval Is Low but Stable
Historical range of approval ratings for U.S. presidents, %
Trump
Obama
W. Bush
Clinton
H.W. Bush
Reagan
Carter Avg during
Ford
Nixon presidency
Johnson
Kennedy
Eisenhower
Truman
Roosevelt
20 40 60 80 100
Sources: Gallup, Moody’s Analytics
October 2020 7Voters Head to Polls With Aggregate Incomes Mostly Intact
Disposable personal income, $ tril, SAAR, change from 2019Q4
4
Rental and interest income Dividend Income
Proprietors' income Labor income
3 Eased pass-through limits Expanded UI benefits
Recovery rebates Automatic stabilizers
Disposable personal income
2
1
0
-1
20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4
Sources: BEA, CBO, JCT, Moody’s Analytics
October 2020 8Older Voters Are Paying Close Attention to Stock Prices
38,000 1.8
Wilshire 5000 (L)
36,000 1.6
Federal Fund Rate (R)
34,000 1.4
32,000 1.2
30,000 1.0
28,000 0.8
26,000 0.6
24,000 0.4
22,000 0.2
20,000 0.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Sources: Federal Reserve, SIX Financial, Moody’s Analytics
October 2020 9Unemployment Crisis Is Still Severe…
Unemployment rate, %, SA
16
Red states
14 Trump-won swing states
Clinton-won swing states
12 Blue states
10
8
6
4
2
0
20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4
Sources: BLS, Moody’s Analytics Note: 20Q3 and 20Q4 values reflect Oct 2020 forecast
October 2020 10…And Will Cast a Long Shadow on the 2020 Election
Presidential elections in which incumbent ran for re-election within two yrs of a recession
Election Yr Incumbent Recession Unemployment Rate, % Outcome
1912 William Taft January 1910 to January 1912 5.2 Loss
1924 Calvin Coolidge May 1923 to July 1924 5.5 Win
1932 Herbert Hoover August 1929 to March 1933 23.6 Loss
1976 Gerald Ford November 1973 to March 1975 7.7 Loss
1980 Jimmy Carter January 1980 to July 1980 7.2 Loss
1992 George H.W. Bush July 1990 to March 1991 7.5 Loss
2020 Donald Trump March to April 2020 8.5 ?
Sources: BLS, Census Bureau, NBER, Moody’s Analytics Note: Unemployment rate is annual avg
October 2020 112 Which State Will Determine
the Presidency?Major Shifts in Pennsylvania’s Political Geography
# of votes Trump received more/less (+/-) than avg Republican from 1988 to 2012
Erie Centre County Luzerne CountyBiden Is Favored to Win Back the Keystone State
How counties will vote during pandemic if nonincumbent turnout is avg
Trump’s projected share
of two-party vote in 2020:How a Biden Blowout Would Look Like in Pennsylvania
How counties will vote during pandemic if nonincumbent turnout is high
Trump’s projected share
of two-party vote in 2020:Trump Can Still Win If Nonincumbent Turnout Is Low
How counties will vote during pandemic if nonincumbent turnout is low
Trump’s projected share
of two-party vote in 2020:The Economy Still Matters to Pennsylvanian Voters
Unemployment rate, %, in Pennsylvania counties won by…
9.5
Donald Trump Hillary Clinton
8.5
7.5
6.5
5.5
4.5
3.5
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
Sources: BLS, Moody’s Analytics Gray bars: presidential election yrs
October 2020 17Democrats Are Vulnerable to ‘Naked’ Ballot Rejections Mail ballots requested, % of registered voters
3 U.S. Congressional Races
Party Breakdown of 116th U.S. House of Representatives
Key Points:
5 Vacancies
• 4 previously held » Every two yrs, all 435 House seats
by Republicans are up for grabs
Republicans Democrats
• 1 previously held 197 seats 232 seats
by Democrats
» 218 seats required for a majority
1 Libertarian » Republicans need a net gain of at
least 17 seats to retake majority
Sources: Clerk of the House, Moody’s Analytics
October 2020 20Good News #1 for GOP: 30 Democrats in Trump Country
Competitive House districts held by…
30
2016 Presidential vote (D less R)
Republicans
Voted for Clinton in ‘16
20 Democrats
and Democrat in ‘18
10 Voted for Clinton in
‘16 and GOP in ‘18
0
-10
-20
Voted for Trump in Voted for Trump in ‘16
-30
‘16 and GOP in ‘18 and Democrat in ‘18
-40
-24 -18 -12 -6 0 6 12 18 24
2018 House of Representatives vote (D less R)
Sources: University of Virginia Center for Politics, Moody’s Analytics
October 2020 21Good News #2 for GOP: Geographic Distribution
Democratic share less Republican share, ppt
20 40
House popular vote (L)
15 House seats won (R) 30
10 20
5 D 10
0 0
-5 R -10
-10 -20
46 54 62 70 78 86 94 02 10 18
Sources: Brookings, Clerk of the House, Moody’s Analytics
October 2020 22Bad News #1 for GOP: Fewer Incumbents on the Ballot
Cumulative # of House representatives announcing they will not seek reelection in 2020
30
Democrats Republicans
25 King
(NY-2)
Marchant Walker
20 (TX-24) Holding (NC-6)
Loebsack Hurd (NC-2)
15 Olson
(IA-2) (TX-23)
(TX-22)
10
Woodall Brooks
(GA-7) (IN-5)
5
Gianforte
(MT-AL)
0
1/1/19 4/1/19 6/30/19 9/28/19 12/27/19 3/26/20 6/24/20 9/22/20
Sources: Ballotpedia, University of Virginia Center for Politics, Moody’s Analytics
October 2020 23Bad News #2 for GOP: History
All postwar presidential election years
Net House gain/loss (+/-) for Did House Incumbent Net House gain/loss (+/-) for Did House Incumbent
incumbent president’s party Majority Flip? President’s Party incumbent president’s party Majority Flip? President’s Party
1948 75 Yes Democrat 1984 14 No Republican
1952 -22 Yes Democrat 1988 -2 No Republican
1956 -2 No Republican 1992 10 No Republican
1960 22 No Republican 1996 3 No Democrat
1964 37 No Democrat 2000 1 No Democrat
1968 -5 No Democrat 2004 3 No Republican
1972 12 No Republican 2008 -21 No Republican
1976 -1 No Republican 2012 8 No Democrat
1980 -34 No Democrat 2016 6 No Democrat
Historical avg 5.8
Sources: U.S. House of Representatives, Moody’s Analytics
October 2020 24Bad News #3 for GOP: Congressional Generic Ballot
% of voters who will support given party in congressional elections
50
Democrats Republicans
48
46
44
42
40
38
4/1/19 6/30/19 9/28/19 12/27/19 3/26/20 6/24/20 9/22/20
Sources: FiveThirtyEight, Moody’s Analytics
October 2020 25Republicans Risk Sinking Further into House Minority
Congressional elections in presidential election years
300
House seats won, president’s party
1964
280
260
1968
240 2004
1980
220
1973 1972 1956 1996 2000
200
2012 2016
180 2008
1992 1984
160
1976 1988 Current generic ballot, ppt = -7
140
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
Final pre-election generic ballot margin for president’s party, ppt
Sources: Clerk of the House, FiveThirtyEight, Gallup, Moody’s Analytics
October 2020 26Senate Majority Hangs in the Balance
Republican’s support in head-to-head polls less Democrat’s, ppt
6
KS MT 51 seats for Senate majority
3 SC
GA
CO
0
Republican-held
-3 IA
NC
Democrat-held seat ME
-6 MI AZ
-9
45 solid red seats or not up 45 solid blue seats or not up
-12
46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55
Sources: RealClearPolitics, Moody’s Analytics Note: Reflect avg of polls in past 30 days wherever RCP avg N/A
October 2020 274 Wildcards
Wildcard #1: Early Voting
% of mail ballots returned by party Early voting, % of 2016 turnout, as of Oct 26
PA
NM
U.S. Democrat
Other
NV Republican
IA
NC
FL
CO
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 ≥60 20 toIf Pennsylvania Is the Decider, Buckle In
When mail and absentee ballots are pre-processed
Upon receipt
Before Election Day
On Election Day
Source: New York Times, Moody’s Analytics
October 2020 30Election Night Could Morph into Election Month
Probability, %, a major party’s presidential campaign concedes defeat in the 2020 election
100
80
60
Not before Inauguration Day
40 By Inauguration Day
By Thanksgiving Day
By election week
20
0
9/4/20 9/11/20 9/18/20 9/25/20 10/2/20 10/9/20 10/16/20 10/23/20
Sources: The Good Judgement Project, Moody’s Analytics
October 2020 31Election Disputes Could Be Messier Than Gore v. Bush
S&P 500 Index
1,450
Election day SCOTUS hears arguments
Gore requests manual in Gore v. Bush
recount in four FL counties
1,400
SCOTUS overrules
Bush petitions SCOTUS FL Supreme Court
1,350
Full machine recount
of FL votes Gore concedes
1,300
FL Supreme Court allows
manual recounts to continue
1,250
11/1/00 11/15/00 11/29/00 12/13/00 12/27/00
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Moody’s Analytics
October 2020 32Wildcard #2: COVID-19
14-day change in confirmed COVID-19 infections, %
>33%
20% toPandemic Could Hurt GOP Turnout in Must-Win States
New monthly COVID-19 cases per 1,000 residents, thru 23rd of each month
9
8 Counties in most likely tipping-point states, according
to betting markets: PA, FL, WI, MI, AZ, and NC.
7
6
Democratic Republican Swing
5
4
3
2
1
0
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Sources: MIT Election Lab, Johns Hopkins University, PredictIt, Moody’s Analytics
October 2020 34More Infections…Weaker Economy
Y-axis: Change in unemployment rate, 3 mo ended Aug 2020 to 2019Q4
12
NV NY
10 NJ
CA
PA IL RI
8
US FL
WA DE
OR NM y = 0.0002x + 3.3
6 WV TN
NH IA R² = 0.19
AK TX AZ
4 MD
AL LA
WY WI SD
MT DC
2 ID NE
KY UT
0
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
Sources: CDC, BLS, Moody’s Analytics X-axis: Infections per mil inhabitants in Jul
October 2020 35Wildcard #3: Voter Turnout
U.S. voter turnout, % of voting-eligible population
80
Presidential elections Midterm elections
70
60
50
40
30
1900 1916 1932 1948 1964 1980 1996 2012
Sources: U.S. Elections Project, Moody’s Analytics
October 2020 36Enthusiasm for Candidate Versus Negative Partisanship
% of voters who say their choice is more a vote…
For Trump
Trump voters ('20)
Against Biden
Biden voters ('20) For Biden
Against Trump
For Trump
Trump voters ('16)
Against Clinton
For Clinton
Clinton voters ('16) Against Trump
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Sources: Pew Research Center, Moody’s Analytics
October 2020 37Q&A EMAIL US
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October 2020 40You can also read
