MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-2022 US - Politics Preview
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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-2022 US
Politics Preview
By Adam Burrowes
2022 is going to be a bumper year for politics in the United States. The midterms on 11
November will see the election of 34 third-class US Senators, all 435 members of the House
of Representatives, and 39 state governors.
The elections come with the additional variables of redistricting, shifts in demographic voting
trends, and the endorsements of former president Donald Trump. All of which may affect
outcomes at the ballot box.
2022 is looking like a defensive campaign for the Democratic Party. Maintenance of the
Senate majority and damage limitation in the House will be seen as a successful electoral
season for Democrats.
The Senate
The 50-50 senate has been a defining political feature of 2021. The lack of a clear majority in
the Chamber has hindered President Joe Biden’s policy-making agenda. It has handed an
effective veto to moderate Democratic senators Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Kyrsten Sinema
(D-AZ) who have torpedoed Democratic efforts to pass the Build Back Better social spending
package and waive the Senate filibuster in order to pass voter rights legislation.
In 2022 the Democrats will be looking to gain seats to break the Senatorial deadlock. As it
stands the Senate looks too close to call. The Republicans are unlikely to be troubled by
senators defying the whip, and even a one-seat swing would give the Republicans control of
the Chamber.
What is up for grabs?
34 of the 100 seats in the Senate will be contested in the November. Republicans will be
defending 20 seats and Democrats 14 seats. The disproportionate number of Republican
senators in class three (US senators split into three ‘classes’, each with six-year terms)
provides more opportunities for the Democrats to unseat a Republican incumbent.
Some pollsters have tipped a ‘red wave’ victory for Republicans, but the makeup of the class
three senatorial map suggests it is unlikely that the GOP will flip enough seats to constitute a
red wave, as there simply aren’t enough marginal Democrat seats available in 2022.
The Democrats are likely to target three key seats - North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and
Wisconsin. The dynamics within these races show potential for Democratic gains. History
suggests that it is more difficult to unseat an incumbent than challenge an open seat and
due to Republican retirements all three of these seats could be open by 2022.
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Chart 1. 2022 Senate Ratings
Source: Sabato's Crystal Ball
Races to watch
Republican targets
• Arizona: Incumbent Mark Kelly (D-AZ) won a special election in 2020. (Battleground)
• Georgia: Incumbent Raphael Warnock (D-GA) won a special election in 2021.
(Battleground)
Mark Kelly and Raphael Warnock both assumed previously safe Republican seats in
special elections in 2020 and 2021. Kelly took the seat held by popular moderate
Republican John McCain for 29 years. In Georgia, Raphael Warnock took Johnny
Isakson’s seat, which he held comfortably for three terms. The fact that Democrats are
the incumbents in these two key seats will lead to cautious optimism from Democratic
strategists but will aggressively targeted by Republicans.
• Nevada: Incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) (Battleground)
• Colorado: Incumbent Michael Bennet (D-CO). (Probable Democrat hold)
• New Hampshire: Incumbent Maggie Hassan (D-NH)
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Republicans will be targeting perennial swing state New Hampshire. The GOP had
hoped that popular Governor Chris Sununu (R-NH) would challenge Maggie Hassan’s
seat, but Sununu has elected to run for a fourth term as Governor instead.
Democrat targets
• Missouri: Open seat after the retirement of Senator Roy Blunt (R-MO) (Probable
Republican hold)
• North Carolina: Possible open seat if Richard Burr (R-NC) retires. (Probable
Republican hold)
• Pennsylvania: Open seat following the retirement of Pat Toomey (R-PA) (Probable
Republican hold)
• Wisconsin: Possible open seat if Ron Johnson (R-WI) doesn’t seek reelection
(Battleground)
Close elections are the norm in Wisconsin. Democrats will target Johnson’s low approval
ratings, divisive statements on the 2020 election, and comments on Covid-19 to unseat him.
Wisconsin could be a pivotal race in 2022 for control of the Senate.
Retirements
Pat Toomey (R-PA) has officially announced his retirement. Richard Burr (R-NC) has not
formally announced his retirement but has stated that this would be his last term. Ron
Johnson (R-WI) likewise stated in 2016 that he would not seek a third term but it is looking
increasingly likely that he will run in 2022.
On the Democratic side Senator Pat Leahy (D-VT) is a confirmed retiree. Vermont was
historically a battleground state in the US Senate, but in recent years has trended to become
one of the most liberal states in the US.
The Trump Factor
Former president Donald Trump may play a role in obstructing Republican incumbents in
what should be Republican safe seats. Trump has suggested that he will challenge the
Republican incumbents with pro-Trump candidates in primaries which could make the races
in Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, and Ohio slightly riskier for the Republicans.
The House
The House is looking like a Republican victory. Democratic strategists are framing the House
midterms as a defensive campaign. For the Democrats, a Republican house majority of less
than 20 would be a reasonable result.
Redistricting
The key states to watch as redistricting continues in 2022:
Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Michigan, North Carolina, New York, Ohio,
Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia
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States redraw their political boundaries every ten years and the redistricting of 2021 will play
a role in determining the makeup of the House. At time of writing, twenty states have finished
redrawing their Congressional maps. Mapping will drag on into 2022 amidst partisan
disputes and accusations of Gerrymandering levelled against both Republican and
Democratic controlled redistricting committees.
California
California is illustrative of how redistricting may change the makeup of the House. California
will have 52 Congressional districts in 2022 and the new California Congressional district
map could lead to an unprecedented ten competitive races in the state. The state map has,
in the past, favoured Democratic candidates and the 2021 map has been redrawn by an
independent board to more reasonably reflect the bipartisan make-up of the state. The
previously partisan nature of Californian districts was evident during the ‘red wave’ of 2010
when the Republicans gained 63 seats nationwide but not a single House district in
California flipped.
Arizona
Arizona’s new congressional map announced on 22 December will likely result in more
competitive districts in future election cycles, and Republican gains in 2022. Democrats
currently hold five of nine seats in Arizona, but the new map provides scope for a potential
Republican advance. The map was drawn by a bipartisan panel of commissioners and
adopted universally but Democrats have claimed that it favours the GOP and doesn’t
represent a state that is ‘…trending blue’.
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Chart 1. California US House of Representatives Redistricting
Source: fivethirtyeight.com
Who will gain the most through redistricting?
Redistricting has, so far, created six new Democratic-leaning seats, one new Republican-
leaning seat and five fewer competitive seats. It seems likely that the Republicans will have
gained more in real terms as the Democratic gains are in already Democratic controlled
areas. Moreover, despite the bitter disputes surrounding the redistricting process, it appears
that the status quo will be largely maintained. This should benefit Republicans who generally
receive a greater number of House seats than the popular vote would suggest.
Some of the more overtly biased maps run the risk of being overturned in court. Maps by
Republican committees in North Carolina and Ohio are subject to lawsuits alleging partisan
or racial gerrymandering.
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Chart 2. US House of Representatives Redistricting Changes
Source: fivethirtyeight.com
Gubernatorial elections
The Gubernatorial elections in 2022 will be defined by the traditional resilience of the
incumbent and the challenging national political environment for Democrats.
Historically, incumbent governors have remained largely insulated from political blowback
but in 2022 this will be tested by the poor approval ratings of President Joe Biden.
‘In ordinary times, a governor running for reelection is one of the surest bets in American
politics; they almost never lose. It is even rarer for a governor to lose a bid for renomination,
and when that does happen the victim is virtually always a governor who has stepped into
the job as a replacement for a predecessor, rather than one who won election him- or
herself.’ (The Hill)
This power of incumbency will be tested by Republican challenges to sitting GOP governors.
The endorsements of Donald Trump will be central leading up to November. Trump has the
potential to disrupt safe Republican seats by endorsing allies, and the growing schism
between Trump supporters and traditional conservatism within the GOP should be followed
closely.
The 2022 gubernatorial elections will be additionally compelling due to the increased scrutiny
over state executive power during times of emergency. During 2020 and 2021 state
governors were able to leverage emergency measures to wield enhanced executive power
to combat the pandemic. This is likely to make the partisan battles over swing seats more
intense.
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Business Address – MNI Market News, 5th Floor, 69 Leadenhall Street, London, EC3A 2 BGChart 3. 2022 Gubernatorial Race Ratings
Source: Sabato's Crystal Ball
Races to watch:
Massachusetts: Open seat. Charlie Baker (R-MA) not seeking reelection.
Maryland: Term restricted Larry Hogan leaves open seat (R-MD)
Outgoing Republican governors in these two deep blue states makes a swing to the
Democrats likely.
Trump Factor
Idaho: Safe Republican seat
Trump has endorsed Idaho Lieutenant Governor Janice McGeachin. Although it is unlikely
that the seat will flip to the Democrats this direct challenge to the incumbent Gov. Brad Little
(R-ID) is one to watch as Trump endorsements continue to disrupt traditional conservatism
within the Republican party.
Georgia – Battleground state
The Republican campaign in Georgia will be complicated by Trump-supporting former
Senator David Perdue primarying against incumbent Brian Kemp (R-GA). Trump has been
vocal in his disapproval of Kemp following the controversy surrounding the 2020 presidential
election and has made a highly publicised endorsement of Perdue.
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Business Address – MNI Market News, 5th Floor, 69 Leadenhall Street, London, EC3A 2 BG2021 gubernatorial elections
In 2021 there were two gubernatorial elections which will give Republicans reason for
optimism. In Virginia Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) defeated the Democratic incumbent Ralph
Northam and in New Jersey the incumbent Phil Murphy (D-NJ) only narrowly defeated Jack
Ciattarelli in what was presumed to be a safe Democratic seat.
As in the House and Senate races, the Democrats will be operating a strategy of damage
limitation but there are two key pickup opportunities they will be targeting. The first is the
open office in Massachusetts, left by outgoing Republican governor Charlie Baker. The
second is in Maryland where Larry Hogan is unable to run due to term restrictions. These
seats are in deep blue states, and in both, Trump has endorsed conservative candidates
over more favoured moderates. As in the Congressional elections the Trump factor will be a
key determiner in the Gubernatorial races.
President Biden’s approval rating
There is a high correlation between presidential approval and party performance in
midterms. Currently, Biden is polling in the low 40s. Fivethirtyeight reports a significant swing
to the Republicans in generic ballots, pitting unnamed Republicans against unnamed
Democrats. Democratic performance on the generic ballot is likely to improve if Biden’s
approval rating picks up in the new year.
Chart 4. President Biden Approval Ratings
Source: fivethirtyeight.com. N.b. As of 4/1/22
Inflation
Rising inflation is also historically correlated with negative ballot box success in US
elections. According to CNN, 66% of Americans have doubts about President Joe Biden’s
leadership. Moreover, 45% believe that Biden’s policies are making the economy worse.
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Business Address – MNI Market News, 5th Floor, 69 Leadenhall Street, London, EC3A 2 BGBoth of these metrics should be followed closely ahead of November.
Chart 6. US Consumer Price Inflation, % chg y-o-y
Source: ychart
Political Risks for 2022
Covid-19
Covid-19 will continue to shape politics in 2022. The recent uptick is Covid-19 risk is
presenting a challenge to the Democrats. Omicron is spreading rapidly in the US and a
surge in deaths and hospitalisations in January is looking possible.
On the policy front, the Democrats have had limited success. There has been political
pushback to Democratic efforts to legislate vaccine mandates. The Supreme Court has
allowed state mandated vaccination of health care workers to go ahead in New York, Maine,
and Indiana suggesting a tolerance for mandate legislation, but it is a divisive political issue
and one that is likely to intensify if more mandates are legislated in the new year.
Build Back Better and Voter Rights Legislation
The spending and climate bill - Build Back Better - currently hangs in political limbo. Senator
Joe Manchin (D-WV) has refused to budge and pass the bill, drawing rebukes from his
Democratic colleagues in Congress.
Legislative success for the voter rights bill to install electoral safeguards ahead of the
midterms is also uncertain. Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) are both reluctant to
bypass the Senate filibuster to pass the bill.
For midterm success, the Democrats must be able to point to some progress on the
legislative front. Build Back Better is expected to return in some form in the new year and
there is a feeling amongst commentators that it must pass. Implications for Joe Biden are
two-fold: if it passes in a stripped-back form, it is unlikely to fulfil climate targets and anger
progressive Democrats. If it is shelved, then it will give the Republicans leverage to question
Biden’s control over his own party, and ability to govern effectively.
The narrative that Joe Manchin is the de-facto president has been an effective strategy for
the Republicans during the Build Back Better news cycle. This is likely to intensify in the new
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Business Address – MNI Market News, 5th Floor, 69 Leadenhall Street, London, EC3A 2 BGyear if Biden can’t come to an agreement with Manchin over these two pieces of key
legislation.
Trends to watch in 2022
The Latino Vote
Traditionally the second most loyal voting bloc towards Democrats after Black Americans.
Latino voters are unhappy with the Democrats and according to Marist in December, support
for Biden amongst Latino voters was polled at 33 percent. Down from 59 percent in July.
This trend began in 2020 and looks likely to continue.
Latino voters tend to live disproportionately in swing states. Therefore, the loss of the Latino
vote could weigh heavily on the Democrats in the House midterms. In districts with large
Latino communities like South Texas and California shoring up the Latino vote will be a
priority for Joe Biden.
Although reliable data isn’t readily available there is some evidence that the Latino vote
swung the Virginia governor’s race for the Republicans. In the New Jersey Governor’s race
there was also some evidence of a similar shift from Democrat to Republican among Latino
voters.
The Trump Factor
Former president Donald Trump has used his post-presidential endorsements to challenge
political opponents within the GOP. These have included Massachusetts governor Charlie
Baker who has since declined to run in 2022. Trump has significant influence over primary
candidates and his endorsements of alternate candidates in Republican incumbent seats
could open the door for the Democrats and encourage disunity within the Republican party.
Florida’s Special Election
Florida’s 20th Congressional District on 11 January will provide the first glimpse into the
electoral dynamics of 2022. The 20th District is subject to a special election due to the death
of ten-term Democrat incumbent Alcee Hastings from pancreatic cancer on April 6 2021.
Florida’s 20th is a safe Democrat seat in a majority black district and the GOP nominee is
highly unconventional. It is unlikely to provide significant insight into the midterm dynamic but
it will first opportunity to gauge the voting intentions of the black and Latino communities.
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