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Strategy Insight
Election Night Scorecard
In keeping with long-standing tradition, we are pleased to offer the 2020 version of our
G. Scott Clemons, CFA
usual election scorecard. We do not predict the outcome of the presidential election (at
Partner and Chief Investment
least in writing), and it is certainly not our intention to endorse any candidates. This is Strategist
simply a guide to what to watch on November 3 as the election unfolds, organized by
when polls close state by state. As usual, the guide is leavened with a fair amount of
electoral history (and a little humor) for our readers who are as politically wonky as your
faithful correspondent. Much of this information is drawn from the fabulous work done
by political researchers and data scientists at RealClearPolitics.com and 270towin.com.
The 2020 election is fraught with existential anxiety on both sides, heightened by the
challenge of conducting a national election during a pandemic. Around 75 million people
– about a third of all registered voters – have already cast their votes, either by voting
The future of wealth since 1818. PRIVATE WEALTH MANAGEMENTElection Night Scorecard
early in person or by mailing or hand-delivering a ballot. What happens tomorrow is not an election – it is 51 separate elections, and
each state (and the District of Columbia) has its own protocols regarding how and when ballots are processed and counted, and how
and when the results are disclosed and ratified. It is possible that the results of votes on election day will be so overwhelming that
delays in counting absentee ballots will be moot. It is probable, however, that these delays will prevent some critical battleground
states from releasing election results until several days after November 3. Election Day may become Election Week, and some races
may not be decided for several weeks.
As important as the presidential race is, control of the Senate is also in question this year. 45 Senate seats are in solid Democratic states
or not up for re-election, while 46 Republican Senate seats are similarly safe. Nine races in Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan,
Minnesota, Montana, North Carolina and South Carolina will determine if the Republican party continues to control the Senate, or
yields to Democratic leadership when the 117th Congress convenes on January 3, 2021.
Friends and clients of Brown Brothers Harriman know that we are fundamental investors, and that our investment strategy does not
depend on the outcome of this or any other election. We would rather pursue the more durable approach of identifying companies
that have a greater-than-average degree of control over their own destinies, and then buying them at an appropriate discount to their
fundamental value. The prospect of a Democratic sweep of the White House and Congress does, however, pose the risk of changes to
income, investment and transfer tax laws, and we encourage our readers to speak with their relationship teams and wealth planners
about the implications for their own financial plans.
Now, on with the guide. Remember to vote, if you haven’t already, and settle in for what could be a long evening.
Seven O’Clock
Results from the first polls to close on election day are usually foregone conclusions, but Georgia is in play this year, and offers two
competitive senate races in addition to a close presidential race. The outcome in the Peach State could provide an early look at how the
evening will go, both for the presidency and the senate. Lindsay Graham’s (R) surprisingly tight race for re-election in South Carolina
might provide some drama at the seven o’clock hour as well. In total, 6 states and 60 electoral college votes are up for grabs at this
earliest hour.
ELECTORAL
STATE COLLEGE CATEGORY WHAT TO WATCH THE SENATE
VOTES
GEORGIA 16 Toss-Up One of the more peculiar aspects of this election is that Georgia has two senate races this year, a regular election
Georgia is a toss-up state. Georgia last voted for a Democrat pitting incumbent David Perdue (R) against Jon Ossoff (D),
for president in 1992, back when it had only 13 electoral and a special election to fill the seat currently held by Kelly
college votes. Trump and Biden have been neck and neck Loeffler (R), who was appointed to that seat in 2019 following
in polls this fall, and the margin of victory here – for either the resignation of Johnny Isakson (R). The regular election is
candidate – will offer an early indication into how the rest of as tight as the Georgia presidential polls, and could result in
the evening might unfold. Georgia started processing absentee a Democratic pickup. The special election is likely to go to a
ballots on September 15, so we should have a result election runoff on January 5, 2021, unless someone within a crowded
night or the day after. field of six candidates garners an outright majority.
INDIANA 11 Leans Indiana voted for Obama in 2008, but with this exception is a No races.
Trump reliably Republican state. As such, pollsters spend little time
there, but the most recent (October) poll shows Trump with a
7-point lead.
KENTUCKY 8 Solid Trump Kentucky voted for Bill Clinton (D) twice in the 1990s, but has Mitch McConnell (R), the Senate Majority Leader, is likely to
been solidly Republican since then. An easy win for Trump. win an easy re-election, in spite of the national attention that
this race has drawn.
SOUTH 9 Leans South Carolina hasn’t voted for a Democrat since Jimmy Carter Lindsey Graham (R), a close confidant of President Trump, is in
CAROLINA Trump in 1976. Another easy win for Trump. a closer Senate race that we usually expect from this reliably
red state. His opponent, Jaime Harrison (D), has set a record by
raising over $100 million in his campaign. A Democratic Senate
win in South Carolina would mark a huge upset.
VERMONT 3 Solid Biden Vermont was consistently Republican until 1992, but has voted No races.
Democratic in every election since then. Hillary Clinton (D)
carried the state by 28 points in 2016, and Biden should fare
similarly.
VIRGINIA 13 Leans Virginia has historically been a toss-up state, but has now Senator Mark Warner (D) is likely to hold his seat.
Biden voted Democratic for the last three elections. Hillary Clinton
(D) won there by 5 points in 2016, and Biden is ahead of Trump
by double digits.
PRIVATE WEALTH MANAGEMENT l 2Election Night Scorecard
Seven Thirty
The polls in two additional swing states close at 7:30, and will provide further indications into how the evening is going for both
candidates. Trump won North Carolina and Ohio handily in 2016. If both states swing to Biden in 2020, Trump’s prospects for re-election
drop precipitously.
ELECTORAL
STATE COLLEGE CATEGORY WHAT TO WATCH THE SENATE
VOTES
NORTH 15 Toss-Up With the exception of a vote for Obama in 2008, North Carolina Democrats are looking to capture the seat current held by
CAROLINA has been a reliably Republican vote for decades. Polls are Thom Tillis (R), who has lagged his opponent Cal Cunningham
much tighter this year, mostly showing Biden with a slight (D) in most polls by a slight margin.
lead. Officials are confident that they will report results on
election night, but postmarked ballots will be accepted up
until November 12.
OHIO 18 Toss-Up Ohio is the perennial toss-up state, voting for the ultimate No races.
winner in every presidential election since 1960. Trump
won Ohio by 8.1% in 2016, and has focused his campaign
on winning Ohio again in 2020. Postmarked ballots will be
accepted through November 13.
WEST VIRGINIA 5 Solid Trump Trump won West Virginia by 42% in 2016, and, although his Shelley Moore Capito’s (R) seat is safe.
margin of victory may be narrower in 2020, a Trump win here
is not in question.
Eight O’Clock
Eight o’clock is prime time for a handful of big swing states, including Florida and Pennsylvania. Trump must win at least one of these two
states for the electoral college math to work in his favor. As Pennsylvania does not begin processing absentee and mail-in ballots until
the morning of election day, the count here may take some time to complete. Florida, on the other hand, started processing absentee
ballots 40 days ahead of the election, and should be able to report results sooner. A competitive Senate race in Maine is worth watching.
Nineteen states with a total of 172 electoral college votes are on offer at the eight o’clock hour. If Biden has already won either North
Carolina or Ohio at 7:30, and if Biden wins either Pennsylvania or Florida at 8:00, the election is all but his, as Trump will have run out
of paths to 270 electoral college votes.
ELECTORAL
STATE COLLEGE CATEGORY WHAT TO WATCH THE SENATE
VOTES
ALABAMA 9 Solid Trump Alabama voted for Trump by 28 points in 2016, and will be an Incumbent Doug Jones (D) won a special election to fill the
easy win for him again this year. seat that Jeff Sessions (R) vacated when he was appointed
attorney general in 2017. Jones is likely to lose his seat to
opponent (and retired football coach) Tommy Tuberville (R),
picking up a senate seat for Republicans.
CONNECTICUT 7 Likely Connecticut has been reliably Democratic for the past 30 No races.
Biden years…
DELAWARE 3 Solid Biden … as has Delaware. A safe hold for Chris Coons (D).
FLORIDA 29 Toss-Up Florida is a must win for Trump if he is to win re-election. No races.
The state has voted for the ultimate winner in 11 of the last
12 elections, most famously in 2000 when the Supreme
Court intervened to stop vote recounts, thereby awarding
the election to George Bush. Biden has a slight lead in
most polls, but right at the margin of error. Florida has been
processing ballots since September 24, and ballots must be
received by election day. We should know Florida results on
election night. Then again, it’s Florida.
ILLINOIS 20 Likely Illinois has voted Democratic for the last 7 elections, and A safe hold for Dick Durbin (D).
Biden 2020 will make it 8.
PRIVATE WEALTH MANAGEMENT l 3Election Night Scorecard
ELECTORAL
STATE COLLEGE CATEGORY WHAT TO WATCH THE SENATE
VOTES
MAINE 4 Leans Maine is one of two states that allocates its electoral college Sara Gideon (D) has consistently led the incumbent
Biden votes, with 2 votes going to the statewide winner, and 1 for each Susan Collins (R) by 4-5 points in the polls. A Gideon
congressional district (CD). Until Trump won the very rural CD2 in victory would pick up a senate seat for the Democrats.
2016, Maine had never split its votes. CD2 is a toss-up this year,
although Biden has led the polls by a narrow margin.
MARYLAND 10 Solid Biden An easy win for Biden. No races.
MASSACHUSETTS 11 Solid Biden The last Republican that Massachusetts voted for was Ronald An easy hold for incumbent Ed Markey (D).
Reagan in 1984. An easy win for Biden.
MISSISSIPPI 6 Likely Mississippi is so red that pollsters don’t even go there. An easy hold for incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith (R).
Trump
MISSOURI 10 Leans Trump won Missouri by 18.5% in 2016, and, although that margin No races.
Trump is likely to shrink, he is likely to win Missouri again.
NEW HAMPSHIRE 4 Leans New Hampshire voted for George Bush (R) in 2000, but has since An easy hold for incumbent Jeanne Shaheen (D).
Biden been consistently Democratic. Hillary Clinton won here by a
mere 0.3% in 2016, while in 2020 the polls show Biden with a
comfortable lead.
NEW JERSEY 14 Likely New Jersey last voted for a Republican presidential candidate in An easy hold for incumbent Cory Booker (D).
Biden 1988, and isn’t likely to break that streak this year. A Biden win.
OKLAHOMA 7 Solid Trump Oklahoma last voted for a Democratic presidential candidate in An easy hold for incumbent Jim Inhofe (R).
1964. Trump wins by double digits.
PENNSYLVANIA 20 Toss-Up Along with Florida, Pennsylvania is the other big prize at this hour. No races.
Trump won the state by 0.7% in 2016, but most polls have him 5-7
points behind Biden in 2020. Officials cannot begin processing
mail ballots until election day, and postmarked ballots can arrive
up until November 6. Some smaller counties have announced that
they won’t begin processing ballots until election day is over. It is
likely to take several days to learn the outcome of Pennsylvania
voting.
RHODE ISLAND 4 Likely Consistently Democratic since 1988. An easy hold for incumbent Jack Reed (D).
Biden
TENNESSEE 11 Solid Trump Tennessee voted for Bill Clinton (D) in 1996, but has been reliably Incumbent Lamar Alexander (R) is not seeking re-
Republican since then. Trump has a double-digit lead over Biden election, but this is a safe win for Bill Hagerty (R) to
in the polls. keep the seat in Republican hands.
DISTRICT OF 3 Solid Biden In 1961 the 23rd Amendment gave residents of the District of No senators. For now.
COLUMBIA Columbia the right to vote for president, and over 90% of them
voted for Hillary Clinton (D) in 2016. The District is limited to no
more electors than the least populous state.
Eight Thirty
Only one state closes its polls at 8:30 Eastern time. Here’s your chance to get a bite to eat, take a socially-distanced walk, or check
Facebook to see if friends and family are still on speaking terms …
ELECTORAL
STATE COLLEGE CATEGORY WHAT TO WATCH THE SENATE
VOTES
ARKANSAS 6 Solid Trump Other than votes for hometown favorite Bill Clinton (D) The incumbent Tom Cotton (R) technically has an opponent, but
in 1992 and 1996, Arkansas has been solidly Republican. leads him in the latest poll by 55 points. An easy Republican hold.
Recent polls give Trump a 33-point advantage over Biden.
PRIVATE WEALTH MANAGEMENT l 4Election Night Scorecard
Nine O’Clock
In a normal year, in which results were available as soon as polls closed, the nine o’clock hour wouldn’t hold much drama. This year,
however, we likely won’t know the results of large swing states from earlier in the evening, and, additionally, this hour has some big
swing states of its own for a change.
Seventeen states worth a total of 156 electoral college votes close their polls at 9:00, including the toss-up states of Arizona, Michigan,
Minnesota, Texas (!) and Wisconsin.
ELECTORAL
STATE COLLEGE CATEGORY WHAT TO WATCH THE SENATE
VOTES
ARIZONA 11 Toss-Up Arizona has voted Republican in all but one (1996) of the last Having lost to Kyrsten Sinema (D) in 2018, Martha McSally (R)
11 elections. Trump won by 3.5% in 2016, and polls in 2020 are was appointed to the other AZ senate seat that same year upon
a dead heat. Arizona starts processing mailed ballots 2 weeks the retirement of John Kyl (R). She is running in 2020 to retain
before the election, and does not recognize ballots received this seat, but lags in the polls to challenger Mark Kelly (D). His
after election day. victory would mark the gain of a Senate seat for Democrats.
COLORADO 9 Leans Colorado was a generally reliable Republican state for many Incumbent Cory Gardner (R) lags challenger (and former
Biden years, but voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012. Clinton carried governor) John Hickenlooper (D) by 8-9 points in recent polls.
the state by 4.9% in 2016, and Biden has a comfortable lead This outcome would be a gain of a Senate seat for Democrats.
in the polls.
KANSAS 6 Likely Kansas hasn’t voted for a Democratic presidential candidate Pat Robert’s (R) retirement occasions an open Senate race in
Trump since 1964. Trump won the state by 21% in 2016, and is likely Kansas, which is likely to remain in Republican hands.
to carry the state again in 2020.
LOUISIANA 8 Likely An easy win for Trump. Bill Cassidy (R) is the clear favorite to win re-election.
Trump
MICHIGAN 16 Toss-Up Trump won Michigan by 0.3% in 2016, marking the first time Incumbent Gary Peters (D) should be able to withstand a
Michigan voted Republican since 1988. Both campaigns are challenge from John James (R) to hold this Senate seat for the
spending time and money here. Biden has held a steady edge Democrats.
in the polls, but Michigan surprised us in 2016, and could do
so again. Michigan does not begin processing ballots until
election day, so the official results could take several days to
tabulate.
MINNESOTA 10 Toss-Up Minnesota hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential The incumbent Tina Smith (D) should win re-election, but, as
candidate since 1972. Biden has led in every poll, but right at with the presidential polls, her margin over challenger Jason
the margin of error. Minnesota began processing absentee Lewis (R) is narrow.
ballots on September 18, and will allow postmarked ballots to
arrive up until November 10.
NEBRASKA 5 Solid Trump Nebraska is the other state (along with Maine) that allocates An easy re-election for incumbent Ben Sasse (R).
one electoral college vote to each of its 3 congressional
districts, with the statewide winner earning an extra 2 votes.
The state is overall solidly red, but CD2 (encompassing
Omaha) sent one electoral college vote for Obama in
2008. Trump won the district by 2.2% in 2016. The one poll
conducted in 2020 shows Biden winning the district, and in
a close election, every electoral college vote is valuable for
either party.
NEW MEXICO 5 Leans Biden has a solid lead, and should easily carry New Mexico. An easy hold for incumbent Ben Ray Lujan (D).
Biden
NEW YORK 29 Solid Biden New York hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential No races.
candidate since Reagan in 1984. Biden leads former state
resident Donald Trump by 30 points in the polls.
NORTH 3 Solid Trump So red they don’t even poll. An easy win for Trump. No races.
DAKOTA
SOUTH DAKOTA 3 Solid Trump See North Dakota. There is scant polling for this race, but the incumbent Mike
Rounds (R) should be easily re-elected in this deeply red state.
PRIVATE WEALTH MANAGEMENT l 5Election Night Scorecard
ELECTORAL
STATE COLLEGE CATEGORY WHAT TO WATCH THE SENATE
VOTES
TEXAS 38 Toss-Up One of the more remarkable developments in this election John Cornyn’s (R) bid for re-election is tighter than it should be
is that Texas is a toss-up state. Texans haven’t voted for a against opponent M. J. Hegar (D), but he is likely to retain this
Democratic candidate for president since 1976, but Trump Senate seat for the Republicans.
holds only a narrow advantage over Biden in 2020 polls. If
Texas goes blue, it will be the defining moment of the evening.
Texas requires a reason for voting by mail, so the number of
absentee ballots will likely be small.
WISCONSIN 10 Toss-Up Wisconsin was key to Trump’s 2016 victory. He won the No races.
state by a mere 0.7%, marking the first time a Republican
candidate carried the state since 1984. Biden leads the polls,
but narrowly. Wisconsin does not process or count absentee
ballots until election day, so the final results could take a day
or two to arrive.
WYOMING 3 Solid Trump All republican all the time. Wyoming hasn’t voted Democrat Mike Enzi’s (R) retirement opens up a Senate seat in Wyoming,
since 1964, and they’re not about to change that now. almost certain to be won by Cynthia Lummis (R), to keep the
seat Republican.
Ten O’Clock
After the excitement of the nine o’clock hour, the short list of polls closing at 10:00 will not likely swing the race one way or the other.
The Senate race in Iowa will be an important factor in determining party control of the Senate.
ELECTORAL
STATE COLLEGE CATEGORY WHAT TO WATCH THE SENATE
VOTES
IOWA 6 Toss-Up Trump won Iowa handily in 2016, but the state voted twice for Incumbent Jodi Ernst (R) faces a stiff challenge from Theresa
Obama, so this year could go either way. The polls are neck Greenfield (D). Polls have generally favored Greenfield, and
and neck. Officials are confident that results will be available her victory would represent a Democratic gain of a Senate
“in a timely fashion,” although ballots will be accepted until seat.
November 9.
MONTANA 3 Leans Trump won Montana by 20 points in 2016, and should easily For such a red state, the Senate race is close than it should
Trump carry the state again in 2020. Montana has voted Republican in be. Incumbent Steve Daines (R) ought to hold this seat for the
12 of the last 13 elections. Republican party, but is up by only a few points in the polls
against his opponent Steve Bullock (D).
NEVADA 6 Toss-Up Clinton won Nevada by 2.4 points in 2016, and Biden shows No races.
a similar lead in 2020. The race here is nevertheless tight.
Nevada will accept postmarked ballots through November 10,
so results could be delayed if the vote is close.
UTAH 6 Likely Utah has voted Republican in every presidential election since No races.
Trump 1964. Trump won the state by 18 points in 2016, and should
easily win again in 2020.
Eleven O’Clock
Five states and 82 electoral college votes are on the table at 11:00, but with little doubt as to the outcomes.
ELECTORAL
STATE COLLEGE CATEGORY WHAT TO WATCH THE SENATE
VOTES
CALIFORNIA 55 Likely California was a reliably Republican state throughout the 1970s and No races.
Biden 1980s, and, of course, produced the Republican hero Ronald Reagan.
The state has voted Democratic since 1992, voted for Clinton by 29%
in 2016, and is likely to vote for Biden by a similar margin.
HAWAII 4 Solid Biden Since Hawaii became a state in 1959, it has only voted for a No races.
Republican presidential candidate in 1972 (Nixon) and 1984 (Reagan).
Biden wins easily.
PRIVATE WEALTH MANAGEMENT l 6Election Night Scorecard
ELECTORAL
STATE COLLEGE CATEGORY WHAT TO WATCH THE SENATE
VOTES
IDAHO 4 Solid Trump Idaho has voted Republican for 13 consecutive elections, and Incumbent Jim Risch (R) should easily retain his Senate seat
2020 will make it 14. for the Republicans.
OREGON 7 Leans Clinton won Oregon by 10 points in 2016, and Biden should win An easy Democratic hold for incumbent Jeff Merkley (D).
Biden Oregon without any trouble.
WASHINGTON 12 Likely Washington’s last vote for a Republican presidential candidate No races.
Biden was 1984, and the state gets a little bluer each year. Biden
leads Trump by over 20 points in the polls.
One O’Clock
Alaska usually reports the results of its election well after the networks have called the winner of the presidential race, and sometimes
even after concession and victory speeches have taken place. This year will likely be different. If you’ve stayed up late enough to learn
the Alaska results in real time, then congratulations on being a true political junkie.
ELECTORAL
STATE COLLEGE CATEGORY WHAT TO WATCH THE SENATE
VOTES
ALASKA 3 Likely Since statehood in 1959, Alaska has only voted for a Incumbent Dan Sullivan (R) is likely to win re-election, and hold
Trump Democratic candidate for president once, in 1964 (Lyndon this seat for the Senate.
Johnson). The state voted for Trump by 15 points in 2016, and
he is likely to win the state again in 2020.
Conclusions
Although we committed to not predicting the outcome of the election, the polls and the Electoral College math favor Joe Biden to win
the presidency. It furthermore seems likely that the Democratic party winds up with a narrow majority in the Senate. But polls are not
votes, and the unprecedented number of early votes, absentee ballots, and mailed ballots, along with the variety of ways in which
these votes are processed and counted in different states, makes this election particularly hard to analyze. Additionally, the threat of
litigation is much higher in this election as well, and may delay a definitive outcome of some key races, including the presidency, even
further. If you’re keeping a scorecard on election night, there are likely to be several gaps in your tallies when you finally go to bed.
Enough analysis. Vote.
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