MARKET REVIEW & OUTLOOK - Winter 2018 - Kiemle Hagood
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Published in Partnership with TABLE OF CONTENTS Photo credit: Homes by Eugene, Johanna B. Photography, Isaacson Aerial Photography, Emily Fisher Photography Graphics: Mike Lee KIEMLEHAGOOD.COM Economic Outlook 3 Spokane Office Market 4-5 (509) 838-6541 Retail Market 6-7 601 W. Main Ave., Suite 400 Coeur d’Alene Industrial Market 8 (208) 770-2590 Medical Office Market 9 2065 W. Riverstone Dr., Suite 101 Kennewick Apartment Market 10 (509) 783-7663 Kootenai County 11 8121 W. Quinault Ave., Suite F201 Missoula New Markets 12-13 (406) 552-4568 K&H Facility Services 14 1001 SW Higgins Ave., Suite 202 All information furnished is from sources deemed reliable and submitted subject to errors and omissions. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. No one should rely solely on this information, but instead should conduct their own investigation to independently satisfy themselves. 2 MARKET REVIEW & OUTLOOK 2018 Kiemle Hagood
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Written By Dr. Grant Forsyth, Chief Economist, Avista Corporation Based on the outlook for U.S. GDP growth, regional employment growth will likely be in the 1.5% to 2% range in 2018. U.S. Economic Policy The U.S. economy is now experiencing its third longest In both of these sectors, employers will struggle to fill expansion going back to the 1850s. The recent tax reform open positions. Similar to the U.S. trend, initial claims for act—the first since the 1980s—will help prolong the current unemployment insurance are already low by historical expansion through 2018. However, even with lower personal standards and will continue to be low through the year. This and corporate taxes, the expectation for U.S. GDP growth in is a clear signal of an extremely tight labor market. This 2018 is around 2.5%. This is far below the 4% target of the tightness, combined with Washington’s new minimum wage Trump Administration, and largely reflects ongoing weakness law, is generating regional wage gains that exceed consumer in U.S. labor productivity. Consumer inflation is expected inflation. to remain very near the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. As a result, the Fed’s ongoing interest rate increases will likely Regional Population continue at a modest pace in 2018. One risk to U.S. and The ongoing strength in the region’s labor market continues regional growth is a breakdown in NAFTA talks. A NAFTA to boost population growth through in-migration. Population breakdown will hit the trade-dependent Northwest hard if it growth in Spokane and Kootenai Counties combined was leads to a protectionist conflict between the U.S., Canada, and around 1.5% in 2017, much faster than 0.7% growth for the Mexico. U.S. Regional population growth, which will likely exceed 1% again in 2018. Even the region’s rural counties are enjoying Regional Labor Market population growth after a period of stagnant growth following In 2017 non-farm employment growth in Spokane and the Great Recession. However, even with this pickup in Kootenai Counties combined was over 2%, compared to 1.5% population growth, the age demographics for the region’s for the U.S. Regional employment growth continues to be rural counties will remain much older than the urban counties particularly strong in the construction and health care sectors. for the foreseeable future. KIEMLEHAGOOD.COM MARKET REVIEW & OUTLOOK 2018 3
OFFICE MARKET Written By Mike Livingston, Erik Nelson and Craig Soehren – Kiemle Hagood Market Conditions • Leasing and sale activity of office product in the Greater Spokane area remained strong throughout 2017, especially at the end of the year. However, due to strong 4th Quarter activity these reporting figures do not accurately reflect the strength of the current Spokane Office Market. As an example, overall vacancy for year end 2017 was 16.3% compared to 15.6% a year ago. Barring a sudden and unforeseen economic downturn, we expect office vacancy figures to be significantly lower next reporting period as many 4Q17 transactions are reported. • Leasing activity was especially robust in the Close-In submarket, historically Spokane’s strongest submarket. Iron Bridge Campus Rock Pointe Corporate Campus and other properties with sufficient parking had significant absorption. Market Forecast • Despite a slow start, the Central Business District ended 2017 with positive absorption as well. There are several reasons to believe 2018 will be a year characterized by falling vacancy rates, increasing rental rates, • Construction of new office building in the Spokane Valley and new construction, including: (at the Meadowwood Technology Campus and Pinecroft Business Park) will commence and/or be occupied as – With the completion of the former Macy’s department new product is needed due to a lack of large well located store into a market-rate apartment project and a general availabilities throughout the market. increase in downtown activity, we expect increased demand for CBD office space. • Sale activity was especially strong in 2017 and could have been even stronger if there had been more available – The University District will see completion of the $14 inventory for investors and owner users. Despite demand million Gateway Bridge, commencement of a new, exceeding supply, cap rates for office investments remained 100,000+ square foot health sciences building, and in the 6.5% to 8.0% range. completion of the first year for medical students at Washington State University’s Elson Floyd Medical School. All should translate into increased demand for a variety of real estate product in the Close In and CBD submarkets. – One or more new buildings will be constructed at Pinecroft. – Leasing activity from 4Q17 that did not appear in the year-end report will boost 2018 results. – Demand for investment property should remain robust as investors from out of the area continue to seek higher yields in Spokane. Rock Pointe 4 MARKET REVIEW & OUTLOOK 2018 Kiemle Hagood
Office Market Inventory *Market Data Source: Valbridge Property Advisors 483,833 West Occupied SF Vacant SF 208,196 3,743,743 Valley 615,713 1,086,888 North 229,223 204,202 South 29,291 3,297,850 Close-In 363,707 3,016,261 CBD 501,451 43.0% Office Market Vacancy Office Submarket Vacancy Breakdown 24% 20% 16% 12% 21.1% 8% 16.6% 16.5% 4% 14.3% 11.0% 0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total 17.2% 15.7% 17.0% 17.9% 16.5% Close-In CBD 16.6% 13.2% 15.7% 15.7% 16.6% Valley North South West CBD Suburbs 17.4% 16.7% 17.5% 18.7% 16.4% KIEMLEHAGOOD.COM MARKET REVIEW & OUTLOOK 2018 5
RETAIL MARKET Written By Colin Conway and Carl Guenzel – Kiemle Hagood Market Conditions Market Forecast • There was some relaxing in the South Hill vacancy rate • In investment sales, a seller’s market shows no immediate signs which saw a slight increase to 4.0%. This submarket has of easing. With low interest rates, limited product and available been especially tough on national and regional restaurant capital, sellers are demanding low cap rates for even Class B franchises. and C properties. As long as buyers continue to line up, sellers will be in the position of strength. • Since the recession, the Spokane Valley submarket has shown a solid recovery in occupancy. After reaching a high • New, smaller retail strip centers are coming online in North of 12.6% vacancy in mid-year 2013, the Valley recovered to Spokane and Spokane Valley, with either full or close-to-full 5.4%, the second lowest vacancy rate in the suburban areas occupancy upon completion. Additional speculative building that are tracked. Even though the occupancy levels have may soon be on the horizon. Rents are easing into the $30 tightened, average rental rates have not seen a significant range for small space, while Mid-Box Retail rents will remain in improvement for more than a decade. the $12-$17 range. • Even though restaurants are concerned about the impact of the mandatory health care law and the state’s minimum wage law, new concepts continue to open. Landlords working with new operators would be wise to keep alert for warning signs of struggling tenants. Evergreen Crossing Retail Submarket Vacancy Breakdown CBD 9.8% Close-In 9.0% Hanson Center - Market Pointe II South 4.0% RETAIL MARKET BREAKDOWN Submarket Surveryed Inventory (SF) Vacant Inventory (SF) Vacancy CBD 1,341,754 131,811 9.8% North 8.2% Close-in 1,022,862 92,015 9.0% South 1,228,955 49,321 4.0% Valley 5.4% North 6,060,504 499,400 8.2% Valley 5,976,662 321,788 5.4% West 267,788 28,595 10.7% West 10.7% *Market Data Source: Valbridge Property Advisors 6 MARKET REVIEW & OUTLOOK 2018 Kiemle Hagood
Coeur d’Alene Town Center DEMOGRAPHIC OVERVIEW OF THE INLAND NORTHWEST 2017 2022 2010 Projected 2017 2017 Estimated 2017 Estimated Projected Census Annual Growth Estimated Median House- Estimated Population Population Population (2017-2022) Households hold Income Median Age SPOKANE COUNTY 500,280 544,876 471,221 1.8% 205,051 $56,725 36.7 Spokane, WA 216,417 236,029 209,752 1.8% 93,546 $49,062 35.1 Spokane Valley, WA 96,262 104, 681 89,657 1.7% 40,104 $53,777 36.8 Liberty Lake, WA 9,205 10,059 7,591 1.9% 3,609 $72,377 36.4 Airway Heights, WA 6,723 7,235 6,114 1.5% 2,006 $41,941 30.9 KOOTENAI COUNTY 159,314 178,654 138,494 2.4% 62,591 $54,691 39.1 Coeur d’Alene, ID 51,746 57,925 44,113 2.4% 21,164 $47,442 35.4 Post Falls, ID 33,523 37,456 27,780 2.3% 12,654 $52,828 35.0 Rathdrum, ID 8,323 9,291 6,915 2.3% 3,009 $48,207 35.3 Hayden, ID 14,735 16,436 12,998 2.3% 5,767 $62,778 40.8 15 % *Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau/Sites USA 12% 10.4% Overall Retail Vacancy 8.8 % 9% 10.2% 7.1% 8.9% 6% 3% 0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 KIEMLEHAGOOD.COM MARKET REVIEW & OUTLOOK 2018 7
INDUSTRIAL MARKET Written By Mark Lucas, SIOR , Tracy Lucas and Tracy Poff – Kiemle Hagood Market Conditions Cheney Spokane Road • Spokane’s Industrial Market saw another drop in vacancy levels during the second half of 2017. Vacancy rates remain historically low as the overall level dipped just below 2%. • Demand for industrial space continues to grow throughout the region, and only 638,134 square feet of new space was built in 2017, while 1,024,544 square feet was absorbed. Industrial Vacancy by Building Size • With constricted options, tenants within the region have seen an increase in rental rates. OVERALL 1.8% Market Forecast 0 - 5,000 SF 2.6% • Several new projects will come online in 2018. As these projects are completed, expect to see a slight rise in vacancy 5,001 - 10,000 SF 2.2% and more options for tenants. • Keep in mind historically the Industrial Market tends to have 0-10,000 SF 2.4% a five year vacancy level incline and decline. Movement towards a small vacancy level rise is expected to occur in 10,001 - 20,000 SF 1.5% 2018. 20,001 - 40,000 SF 2.4% *Market Data Source: Mark Lucas, SIOR, Tracy Lucas and Tracy Poff Over 40,001 SF 1.2% Industrial Market History Spokane Industrial Park 2.0% SF ABSORPTION TOTAL VACANCY % 2,000,000 10% 9% 1,500,000 8% 1,000,000 7% 663,476 SF AVG ABSORPTION 6% 500,000 5.7% AVG VACANCY 5% 0 4% 3% -500,000 2% -1,000,000 1% Vacancy Absorption 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 8 MARKET REVIEW & OUTLOOK 2018 Kiemle Hagood
MEDICAL OFFICE MARKET Written By Ron Horton – Kiemle Hagood Market Conditions • The Spokane Medical Office Market has enjoyed positive absorption in the last few months. The last survey indicated a vacancy rate over 10%; however, that rate has dropped to just under 9% in the most current report. A continued wait and see attitude is in place as health organizations continue to merge, uncertainty over the ACA continues, and the health industry as a whole wonders what’s next. Providence Medical Park • Rents will need to rise to recover increases in operating costs, which show no signs of slowing. Class A properties will continue to demand top rates, while B and C Class properties Medical Office will struggle to attract good tenants. Landlords will need to be aggressive by offering attractive tenant improvement Submarket Vacancy Breakdown allowances, flexible lease terms, and other incentives. • Capitalization Rates nationwide for medical office properties Close-In 8.9% have dropped from 8.5% in 2002 to 6.7% in 2016 with continued downward pressure. (Source: Real Capital Analytics) South 3.5% Market Forecast North 9.6% • Health care will maintain the move toward a convenience – based model. Health care organizations will continue to Valley 9.6% locate in population centers where their customer base is located and operational costs are lower than on hospital campuses. • New rules implemented by the Financial Accounting Standards Board will impact how health care providers Overall Medical account for long-term leases, which currently allow sale – Office Vacancy 15% leaseback arrangements. Under the new rules, leases will 13.2% be classified as financing leases, which will be treated as 12% debt by the lessee. These changes will force a fundamental 9.4% rethinking of whether providers want to own or lease their 10.7 % 9% 10.2% facilities. Developers will need to consider offering credit- 9.0% leasing where a provider gets the benefit of ownership 6% following lease expiration. 3% 0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 *Market Data Source: Valbridge Property Advisors KIEMLEHAGOOD.COM MARKET REVIEW & OUTLOOK 2018 9
APARTMENT MARKET Written By Tim Kestell and Cody George – Kiemle Hagood Market Conditions • The average apartment vacancy rate for the Greater Spokane region increased from 1.6% in Fall 2016 to 2.9% in Fall 2017. This increase appears to be due to the anticipated delivery of several new apartment opportunities and higher than usual vacancies in the 2+ bedroom apartment category area wide. Interestingly, the average rental rate increased $36.00 per month over the same period to $886.00 per month. The peak rental rate was in Spring 2017, when levels Lilac Terrace Apartments hit $913.00 per month, then fell during the summer months. • In addition to new product, first time home buyers continue Market Forecast to take advantage of low interest rates and home purchase options, which is a factor in apartment vacancy rates area • Vacancy rates should trend downward as new product wide. is absorbed. Currently, several apartment buildings in Spokane County have wait lists up to 30 requests deep. APARTMENT MARKET BREAKDOWN BY SUBMARKET • Rental rates should stabilize while absorption takes place, Submarket Vacancy % Average Rental Rates and then trend upwards toward the 4th Quarter, as a relative short supply remains. North 2.0% $833 Central 1.8% $777 • Properly zoned land that can handle multi-family Valley 2.9% $870 development will stay active throughout 2018. South 3.1% $987 • Quality multi-family investment listings should remain West 7.9% $891 relatively sparse with low cap rates through 2018, since OVERALL 2.9% $886 investors do not want to give up their investment without a replacement or a premium sale price. Overall Apartment Rental Rates 886 $ Overall Apartment Vacancy $ 848 5% 4.1% 4% 751 $ 3.3% $ 720 2.9% 710 $ 3% 3.5% 2% 1.6% 1% 0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 *Data Source: Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies/University of Washington 10 MARKET REVIEW & OUTLOOK 2018 Kiemle Hagood
KOOTENAI COUNTY Written By Pat Eberlin – Kiemle Hagood Office Retail • Significant office space absorption occurred throughout • Kootenai County is not immune to the ever-changing Kootenai County as roughly 120,000 SF was absorbed traditional retail stores. Web-based presence and since Summer 2016. e-commerce drive decision making with many retailers “right sizing” store fronts to cater to daily consumer needs. • Similar to past years, new office speculative construction is fairly nonexistent as the land costs in conjunction with • Service related office users (ie: dental, medical, insurance construction costs and expected returns challenge the etc.) continue to transition into retail positioned product, necessary rent levels by tenants in the market. while enjoying stronger traffic counts, parking ratios, exposure and access. • Stabilization is expected in 2018 for the office sector with Landlord contributions in the form of free and or reduced • Expect to see a reasonable retail market with tenant rent, while TI packages will dwindle. relocations from within and consistent rents from the “mom and pops” while strong signatures compete for Class A OFFICE MARKET BREAKDOWN locations in the high rent districts. Submarket Inventory (SF) Vacant Inventory (SF) Vacancy Coeur d'Alene 3,063,542 140,929 4.6% Post Falls 553,152 33,687 6.1% RETAIL MARKET BREAKDOWN Rathdrum 24,915 0 0% Submarket Inventory (SF) Vacant Inventory (SF) Vacancy Hayden 368,613 17,879 4.9% Coeur d'Alene 4,931,800 223,326 4.5% Dalton Gardens 14,710 0 0% Totals 4,024,932 192,495 4.8% Post Falls 1,649,731 154,137 9.3% Rathdrum 219,501 23,015 10.5% Hayden 859,896 40,840 4.8% Dalton Gardens 170,237 5,200 3.1% Parkside Tower Totals 7,831,165 446,518 5.7% Industrial • Little to no supply across the market continues to favor Prairie Shopping Center Landlords with increasing rents, while leaving little to no rental concessions until new product comes online. INDUSTRIAL MARKET BREAKDOWN • Possible new industrial projects are coming to the market Submarket Inventory (SF) Vacant Inventory (SF) Vacancy in 2018, which should help the demand by users of 1,500 Coeur d'Alene 1,728,874 63,868 3.7% SF to 50,000 SF. Post Falls 2,869,130 78,873 2.8% Rathdrum 462,158 0 0.0% • Landlords of existing product will continue to see rental Hayden 1,375,999 35,819 2.6% escalations into 2018 as new construction rent demands Dalton Gardens 190,314 0 0.0% will create significant variations between new and second *Market Data Source: Valbridge Property Advisors Totals 6,626,475 178,560 2.7% generation product. *Market Data Source: Valbridge Property Advisors KIEMLEHAGOOD.COM MARKET REVIEW & OUTLOOK 2018 11
NEW MARKETS Written By Lance Bacon and Gordon Hester – Kiemle Hagood TRI-CITIES, WASHINGTON MISSOULA, MONTANA – Growth Continues In A Strong Economy – Entering A New Market The Tri-Cities is located in Southeastern Washington and One of our challenges when entering a new market is to is comprised of Richland, Kennewick, Pasco and numerous quantify the real estate statistics. How many square feet exist surrounding rural communities. Three rivers, nine golf courses, commercially? What is the current occupancy rate? What are and 300 days of sunshine offer a wide variety activities and average rents? Once we are able to quantify the market, our appeal. Because of its easy accessibility, the area is a service job is to then to tell the story of current market conditions and and occupational hub for the region. The economy is fueled by predict what the future may hold. Missoula is fortunate to have a variety of government contracted projects for environmental progressive groups who understand the value of assembling clean-up, scientific research and development, agricultural, this information to ensure developers, business owners and food processing, general retail and healthcare. investors can make accurate investment decisions. With a strong economy and job growth, the following projects In 2011, the Missoula Downtown Association, working with recently occurred or will take place in 2018: the Downtown Business Improvement District and the Missoula Redevelopment Agency, commissioned a study to • AutoZone’s 500,000 square foot distribution facility in quantify the building and business inventory in Downtown Northeast Pasco; Missoula. You can find the study on their website. It is a wealth • Kadlec Hospital expansion with new multi-level parking of information as to what makes up this vibrant downtown. structure; The study covered approximately 2.3 million square feet • New 20,000 square foot Planet Fitness facility on and 766 “units” of commercial space. This survey breaks Columbia Center Blvd; down property types differently than we would traditionally classify commercial buildings, but it remains a very insightful • New Standard Flooring and Paint 24,200 square foot and interesting outline of what Downtown Missoula looks facility in former Staples; like from a commercial real estate standpoint. For us, it is a • Newly built 20,000 square foot location for Home Goods; great starting point for analysis of what is going on in the real • Party City and Ulta Beauty expanded with locations in estate market in Missoula, and is a excellent reminder of the Richland’s Queensgate area; important role these agencies play. • New quick serve restaurants, Mod Pizza and Panera We have just finished our first year operating in the Missoula Bread, open in Richland’s Vintner Square; market, and are very pleased to be part of this community. Best • Continued growth in the Tri-Cities Scientific Research wishes to all of our Montana clients, customers and tenants District, with WSU Tri-Cities North Richland location; for a successful 2018. We look forward to continuing our due diligence and research to provide you with the management, • Two planned Original Pancake Houses in Kennewick and brokerage and investment information you need. Richland; Source: https://www.missouladowntown.com/about/downtown-building- • Potter BBQ expanding with a second location in business-inventory/ Kennewick; • Ongoing apartment construction taking place due to the low vacancy rates; • Several new and under construction mini-storage facilities. Predictions for 2018 are positive as we continue to see businesses choosing to relocate to the Tri-Cities’ robust market. Missoula, Montana 12 MARKET REVIEW & OUTLOOK 2018 Kiemle Hagood
*Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau/Sites USA DEMOGRAPHIC OVERVIEW OF COLUMBIA BASIN REGION 2017 2022 2010 Projected 2017 2017 Estimated 2017 Estimated Projected Census Annual Growth Estimated Median House- Estimated Population Population Population (2017-2022) Households hold Income Median Age BENTON COUNTY 199,855 217,991 175,177 1.8% 72,607 $69,473 34.9 Kennewick, WA 83,133 90,359 73,927 1.7% 29,615 $59,515 32.3 Richland, WA 56,574 61,756 48,154 1.8% 22,606 $79,704 38.2 West Richland, WA 14,711 16,085 11,812 1.9% 5,117 $90,561 34.7 FRANKLIN COUNTY 91,089 98,796 78,163 1.7% 26,590 $63,892 28.8 Pasco, WA 70,919 76,927 60,956 1.7% 20,996 $62,788 28,1 DEMOGRAPHIC OVERVIEW OF WESTERN MONTANA REGION 2017 2022 2010 Projected 2017 2017 Estimated 2017 Estimated Projected Census Annual Growth Estimated Median House- Estimated Population Population Population (2017-2022) Households hold Income Median Age MISSOULA COUNTY 116,390 127,512 109,299 1.9% 49,469 $51,796 35.1 Missoula, MT 72,438 79,218 66,987 1.9% 32,004 $46,358 32.0 FLATHEAD COUNTY 100,647 110,774 90,928 2.0% 39,926 $53,160 41.3 Whitefish, MT 7,560 8,377 6,343 2.2% 3,344 $53,648 41.4 Kalispell, MT 23,696 25,858 19,747 1.8% 9,702 $47,567 36.3 Tri-Cities, Washington KIEMLEHAGOOD.COM MARKET REVIEW & OUTLOOK 2018 13
K&H Facility Services Our Mission is to provide comprehensive facility operation, maintenance and repair to all types of properties through professional technicians, efficient and cost-effective operations, and comprehensive maintenance, all of which will enhance the value of the property owner’s investment. List of Services • Comprehensive Preventative Maintenance Programs • On-Site Facility Technicians with Internet Based Work Order Dispatch • System Life Cycle Management/ Planning and Energy Management Systems • HVAC System Management Full Service and Repairs on all Types of Equipment • Consulting & Analysis Mechanical System Re-Commissioning, Energy Audits, Energy Efficient Systems • Electrical Variable Frequency Drives, Lighting Automation Controls, Branch Circuits, Panels, Switch Gear and Motor Controls • Indoor Air Quality System Evaluation, Management of Industrial Hygienists, Planning & Prevention • Control Systems Direct Digital Control (DDC), Pneumatic Controls, Calibration & Repairs, Upgrades and Integration • Plumbing Preventative Programs and Code Compliance • Infrared Scanning Services Electrical Circuit Breaker Panels and Disconnects Proud members of these organizations: • Life Safety Oversight and Maintenance General Contractor License #: CC01 KFACF927JJ K&H Facility Services is a wholly owned subsidiary of Electrical License #: EC KHFACFS844JL khfacilityservices.com 3 ne 509.838.6541 | Coeur d’Alene 208.77 0 . 2 5 9 0 | Ke n n e wi c k 5 0 9 . 7 8 3 . 7 6 6 3 | MiKiemle Spoka 4 0 6Company s so u&l aHagood .5 5 2 .4 5 6 8
MAKING SPACE FOR OPPORTUNITIES We have a new look and a continued focus on creating Real Estate Solutions for YOU! Kiemle Hagood is creating real estate solutions—making space for communities, businesses and residents. Our team members across the Intermountain Northwest view space as crucial to progress: making, creating and maintaining spaces for every vital part of human life. And, it’s your need for optimal space that drives us. Kiemle Hagood is the place where connection, innovation and space come together. We provide space and services to meet the needs of our community - past, present and always. Visit us at KIEMLEHAGOOD.COM Spokane 509.838.6541 | Coeur d’Alene 208.770.2590 | Tri-Cities 509.783.7663 | Missoula 406.552.4568
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