Challenges and New Choices: Catalysts for Change in the Bermuda Reinsurance Market - Xuber Survey Report
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Xuber Survey Report Challenges and New Choices: Catalysts for Change in the Bermuda Reinsurance Market
Xuber Survey Report Challenges and New Choices: Catalysts for Change in the Bermuda Reinsurance Market
Executive summary
By Chris Baker, Managing Director, Xuber
‘‘
Bermuda considers itself to be ‘the world’s risk capital’ and its
reinsurance market has always been renowned for its innovation,
always developing new and smarter risk management products.
With the traditional reinsurance model under pressure from
third-party capital and an ongoing soft market, the need for
innovation has never been greater.
To take the temperature of the current Bermuda reinsurance
market, Xuber contacted some of the most senior players in the
industry. Speaking only to executive level professionals, we canvassed the opinions of
industry veterans on the impact of alternative capital from insurance-linked securities
(ILS) such as catastrophe bonds, how ILS investors might react in the face of major
capital-draining catastrophes, regulatory challenges, the current business environment,
mergers and acquisitions, and business priorities for 2015.
Insurance and reinsurance are the mainstays of the Bermuda economy, with the
Association of Bermuda Insurers and Reinsurers (ABIR) members employing more than
1500 people on the island. ABIR’s latest economic impact survey showed its members
contributed $886.8 million dollars to the local economy in 2013 – nearly $70 million more
than in 20121.
The phenomenal growth of ILS has been the biggest challenge the traditional
reinsurance model has faced in recent years. The threat has also created opportunity,
and Bermuda has been quick to embrace the changing economic landscape.
By the first quarter of 2014, Bermuda was the jurisdiction of choice for 60 percent of the
ILS listed globally2, and in May the value of ILS listed on the Bermuda Stock Exchange
reached an all-time high of $12.43 billion3.
Most executives we surveyed believe this new capital is ‘sticky’ and would remain after a
major catastrophe, and although the model may evolve, hedge funds are likely to remain
committed to backing reinsurance firms in the longer run.
Bermuda was overwhelmingly seen as a friendly place to do business, an island that
is well-regulated and leading the field in the fast-growing ILS sector. As a technology
firm, it was heartening to find that IT was the top business priority for Bermuda’s
reinsurers in 2015.
Our first survey of the Bermuda reinsurance market has produced some fascinating insights
from leading players. It has revealed that despite the many challenges the reinsurance
industry faces, Bermuda is as adaptive and forward-thinking as it ever has been.
‘‘
Finally, I would like to sincerely thank the Bermuda-based executives from insurers,
reinsurers, law firms, ILS investors and fund managers who generously gave their time to
complete our survey.Xuber Survey Report Challenges and New Choices: Catalysts for Change in the Bermuda Reinsurance Market Contents 1. Insurance-Linked Securities (ILS) – here for the long run 2. Alternative capital – is it being deployed sensibly? 3. Bermuda – an easy place to do business 4. Big data and analytics – at the heart of reinsurers’ success 5. Mergers and acquisitions – “everyone is talking to everyone else” 6. Business priorities – the smart money is on technology 7 . Summary – a catalyst for change 8. Index
Xuber Survey Report Challenges and New Choices: Catalysts for Change in the Bermuda Reinsurance Market
1. Insurance-Linked Securities (ILS) – here for the long run
The huge inflows of alternative capital into insurance-linked securities (ILS) such as
catastrophe bonds has undoubtedly been the biggest factor to disrupt and help reshape
the global reinsurance market in recent years – and Bermuda has been at the heart of
the changes.
The traditional reinsurance pricing cycle means that the industry suffers some years of
heavy losses after major natural catastrophes such as hurricanes and earthquakes,
followed by a spike in profitability as the market hardens. Reinsurers understand they will
face enormous losses in some years and build their business around this possibility. But
ILS is a different form of insurance capacity and the industry is divided about whether
these alternative capital providers, such as hedge funds and pension funds, are here for
the long run or whether they would be frightened off by a big catastrophe that drained
significant sums of money out of the market – potentially wiping out their investment.
Our survey found most executives (77 percent) feel the capital is ‘sticky’ and would
remain after a large catastrophe, with 11.5 percent disagreeing, and 11.5 percent unsure.
11.5% disagree
11.5% unsure
77% feel the
capital is ‘sticky’
While catastrophe bonds are deemed high risk investments, so far it has been rare for
investors to lose all their money. Only six deals issued since 1996 have been triggered
by natural catastrophes from a cumulative issuance total of $61.243 billion, according to
risk transfer site Artemis4. Of this figure, only three experienced a total loss – one from
the Tohoku earthquake in Japan in 2011 and two from the 2011 U.S. tornado season,
according to Artemis’ figures.
Rather than seeing alternative capital as just a direct challenge to their business, a “The ILS sector has been making
number of traditional reinsurers in Bermuda have embraced the change and set up extraordinary returns. In order to get a big
return on ILS, you have to take a big risk.”
funds for third parties to invest in catastrophe risk.
Bermuda is a long-standing risk innovator and it has been deeply involved in this new
capital surge. According to the island’s regulator, the Bermuda Monetary Authority
(BMA), by the first quarter of 2014, Bermuda was the jurisdiction of choice for more than
60 percent of ILS issued globally5. The Bermuda Stock Exchange (BSX) reported that in
July this year, $12.43 billion of catastrophe bonds were listed on the exchange6.Xuber Survey Report Challenges and New Choices: Catalysts for Change in the Bermuda Reinsurance Market
The billions of extra capital coming into the market means the reinsurance industry is
in a state of flux. Swiss Re in its July Insurance-Linked Securities Market Update7
found that issuance for the second quarter of this year was $4.49 billion, larger than
any previous half year issuance on record. ILS issuance for the first half of 2014 stands
at $5.9 billion, 35% ahead of the record $4.34 billion achieved in the first half of 2007,
and the outstanding issuance for the cat bond market is now at a new height of $22
billion, according to Swiss Re’s figures.
Although most executives we surveyed agree the alternative capital is here to stay,
opinions are still divided.
“The ILS sector has been making extraordinary returns. In order to get a big return on
ILS, you have to take a big risk.” said one leading executive. “Even though we have not
had the big test, investors are still coming back to the market.”
Some thought that investors not only would stay, but would also invest further if the
possible returns on investment had increased due to market dislocation. “If there were a
significant market event or an annual poor loss ratio – i.e., a series of medium losses – I
believe the alternative capital would not only still be there, but would ‘double down’ to
take advantage of rate increases,” said one executive.
Another said that if a major cat event wiped out the entire capital and surplus of the “I’m sure plenty of brain power is out there
reinsurance industry, “highly sophisticated” pension and fund managers would increase trying to determine the best way in to other
their investment in ILS because of the price increases that would follow. asset classes.”
ILS investment to date has been almost exclusively confined to natural catastrophes
with smaller amounts invested in other asset classes, such as longevity and health
risk. Our survey, however, found that a clear majority, 77 percent, believe this
alternative capital will soon start flowing into other classes, such as casualty, while
eight percent disagreed, and 15 percent remained unsure.
15% unsure
8% disagreed
77% believe alternative
capital will soon start
flowing into other
classesXuber Survey Report Challenges and New Choices: Catalysts for Change in the Bermuda Reinsurance Market
One executive said he expected ILS capital to be deployed covering large corporate “Brokers and others have been working
risks business interruption, or product coverage for pharmaceuticals, chemicals and on an ILS product for the casualty sector
accountants. for some time, so it is inevitable that such
a product will emerge, perhaps combined
In response to the ILS threat, reinsurers are seeking to spread their portfolio beyond with short tail – i.e., natural cat exposures,”
catastrophe. To remain competitive, they will need to be able to accommodate change said one. “We also expect large corporate
quickly and those that have an ambitious business strategy, closely backed and enabled risks will access ILS players for particularly
by strong technology capabilities, will take the lead. massive exposures, especially complex
coverages such as business interruption,
Summary or product coverage for pharmaceuticals,
The ILS sector has not yet been hit by a massive natural catastrophe that has wiped out chemicals, and accountants.”
large sums of capital, but the consensus among most in our survey is that the majority of
these investors would remain in the market, even after a ‘big one.’Xuber Survey Report Challenges and New Choices: Catalysts for Change in the Bermuda Reinsurance Market
2. Alternative capital – is it being deployed sensibly?
Much of the new capital that is challenging traditional reinsurance has come from hedge “By their nature, hedge funds are
funds, and some even set up their own reinsurance companies. Hedge funds are opportunistic and ‘traders.’ They will not
normally viewed as opportunistic profit-hunters, and our survey found opinions vary on remain long unless they have high returns in
their long-term commitment to the sector and their investment strategy. the short term.”
Six out of ten participants thought the alternative capital was being deployed
responsibly and with as much care and expertise as traditional reinsurance capital,
while 27 percent did not, and 11 percent were unsure.
One executive said that while hedge-fund-backed reinsurers had highly-qualified and
experienced staff, their business plans were “opaque.” Stating that two major ratings
agencies have different views on this concept, the executive added: “Time will separate
which agency has the more accurate prospective, and which companies will have the
continuing support of the shareholders”.
Another said: “While the initial new hedge fund-backed reinsurers have been able to
attract underwriting talent and act responsibly, it is likely that as the model evolves and
traditional reinsurance market conditions continue to deteriorate, there will be
companies getting into trouble because they will start to take more underwriting risk
than they should, given their asset risk.”
One respondent said hedge-fund backed reinsurers have “completely different” “It is likely that as the model evolves and
strategies from reinsurers and were looking for different results, but added, “so long as traditional reinsurance market conditions
they end up paying claims as they are contracted to, at the end of the day that is all that continue to deteriorate, there will be
companies getting into trouble because they
matters.”
will start to take more underwriting risk than
Another said: “Hedge funds or their investors want returns, diversification and certainty they should, given their asset risk.”
on liquidity, even if it takes 12 months. As long as the investment objectives are still being
met, allocations will increase.”Xuber Survey Report Challenges and New Choices: Catalysts for Change in the Bermuda Reinsurance Market
One participant quoted investment guru
When asked if hedge funds had a long-term commitment to reinsurance companies, Warren Buffett’s famous observation, that
69 percent said yes, with 31 percent disagreeing. a hedge fund is a “compensation scheme
masquerading as an asset class.”
69% YES YES YES YES YES YES YES
31% NO NO NO
Opinions vary on the long-term commitment of hedge funds to reinsurance companies, “As long as the returns in reinsurance
but a number of respondents said they thought the business model would evolve. outpace the overall market opportunities in
the investment universe, they will be in the
One noted: “I believe the established hedge-fund-backed reinsurers are committed to the business.”
industry and their business models will evolve over time; however I do not believe that we
will see a rush on more of these sole hedge fund-backed structures come to market.”
Another added: “Hedge funds are a welcome addition to the reinsurance market which
needs to continue to evolve and grow in sophistication, in with its history. Reinsurance
by its very nature brings together risk and capital - reducing one in return for the other.
Hedge funds are a key component of the capital markets, and therefore will have a
long-term role in the reinsurance market.”
Summary
Hedge funds are usually seen as short-term profit-seekers, but most believe the
reinsurance firms they are backing are deploying their capital responsibly and that
hedge funds will back these reinsurers for the long-run.Xuber Survey Report Challenges and New Choices: Catalysts for Change in the Bermuda Reinsurance Market
3. Bermuda – an easy place to do business
Insurance and reinsurance is the lynchpin of Bermuda’s economy, with the Association of
Bermuda Insurers and Reinsurers’ (ABIR) members directly contributing $886.8 million to
the island’s economy in 2013 – an increase of $70 million compared to the previous
year1.
Despite facing tough competition from other jurisdictions to attract international business
our survey showed most Bermuda executives believe the territory is well regulated and
a good place to do business.
Some 73 percent believe the current regulatory and political framework makes it an
easy place to do business, with 23 percent disagreeing and 4 percent declining to
comment.
4% declining to comment
23% disagreed
73% believe it’s an easy
place to do business
“Bermuda is an easy place to do business and it is improving daily,” said one executive.
Another said: “Bermuda has a reputation as a global insurance market, with a robust yet
flexible regulatory framework, compliant with international standards that allow
domiciled insurers to conduct their business without unnecessary operational or
reporting burden. The current government has repeatedly stressed their interest in
attracting more international business to the island and has committed their support
through several legislative changes.”
Our survey found many believe Bermuda is leading the field when it comes to the
quickly growing insurance-linked securities (ILS) sector.
“Bermuda is uniquely positioned to be at the forefront of ILS development because of
the following: regulatory environment; access to business; underwriting and analytical
talent; favorable tax structure,” said one.
Another executive added: “Bermuda has reestablished its position as the leading location
for ILS, exemplified by the fact that nearly all the new cat bond issuers over the past four
years having been Bermuda vehicles. In addition, Bermuda has seen the establishment of
numerous ILS funds and several reinsurance companies setting up ILS platforms.”
Another opinion revealed: “I think that as long as Bermuda remains stable, has good
regulation and governance, the business will continue to expand. It’s easy. The
structure is in place. While it will mean only a few extra jobs in Bermuda, being
receptive to ILS forward-thinking will reveal Bermuda to be the home of other
innovative financial products.”Xuber Survey Report Challenges and New Choices: Catalysts for Change in the Bermuda Reinsurance Market
One of the most important regulatory changes affecting the reinsurance industry will be
the Solvency II (SII) capital requirements for reinsurers operating within the European
Union. Solvency II is scheduled to take effect on January 1 2016, and Bermuda has been
making good progress towards achieving Solvency II equivalence.
It is perhaps because the Bermuda Monetary Authority is so well respected that
executives were split about whether the island’s reputation would be damaged if it
did not achieve Solvency II equivalence. Some 62 percent thought the island’s
reputation would be damaged if it did not achieve SII equivalence, while 38 percent
thought it would not.
62% 38%
“It is absolutely essential that we achieve equivalence – not to do so would pose a huge “Bermuda has proven over the last 15 years
threat to our insurance sector,” said one. Another countered: “I do not think Solvency II is to be a sensitive and intelligent regulator.
mandatory for Bermuda’s future success. We’ve been discussing this for so long it’s Long may it continue.”
frankly getting tiresome.”
Another agreed that failing to get SII equivalency would not damage the island’s
reputation. “Bermuda has a good regulatory body and you have to give them credit for it.
They have a lot at stake and the regulatory authority has operated well. One of the
concerns is that there will be too much regulation.”
“No regulatory environment is easy to do business in; however, Bermuda’s is the best,”
said one respondent.
One executive noted that Bermuda has established itself as the third-largest reinsurance “I think Solvency II has been a positive thing
center in the world. “Bermuda understands that with this comes fiscal and regulatory for Bermuda as it has given it something to
responsibility, and by meeting international standards of regulation and market oversight, work towards to prove to the world once and
Bermuda is illustrating its commitment to being an industry leader in this space.” for all that Bermuda stands with the world
class markets from a regulatory standpoint.”
Summary
Bermuda is seen as an innovative jurisdiction and a good place to do business: the
market leader for the ILS sector with the right regulatory balance.Xuber Survey Report Challenges and New Choices: Catalysts for Change in the Bermuda Reinsurance Market
4. Big data and analytics – at the heart of reinsurers’ success
There is a wide acceptance that top class technology will be critical to the success of
reinsurers in future years, and our survey found that IT was one of the main investment
priorities for firms in Bermuda.
A study by Celent found that data analytics is evolving and that those insurers and
reinsurers that best leverage their internal and external data will be leaders by 20209.
Celent advised: “Over the last decade, insurers spent millions – large insurers spent tens “Future trends in underwriting and
of millions – on data mastery programs with little or no realized business value. The developing new models and new risks will
missing ingredient in their efforts was clear vision and direction of how these programs be heavily dependent on big data.”
aligned with their business strategy, goals and objectives. Insurers are flooded with data:
smaller insurers have or are approaching terabytes of data internally, and larger insurers
have or are approaching petabytes of data. With the addition of telematics, external
industry data, and social media data, many carriers will soon have exabytes of data at
their disposal, with zettabytes around the corner (within the next three to five years)9.”
Our survey found 38 percent of firms in Bermuda have a big data program, and 38
percent did not. The figures are skewed by the fact that not all respondents were
underwriters, with 20 percent saying the question did not apply, and four percent did
not know. Almost half (46 percent) provided underwriting assistance to insurers
through analytics, 31 percent did not. The question was not applicable to 19 percent,
and 4 percent didn’t know.
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
38% have 38% do not 20% does 4% do
a big data have a big not apply not know
program data program
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
46% provided 31% do not 19% does 4% do
underwriting provide not apply not know
assistance via assistance
analyticsXuber Survey Report Challenges and New Choices: Catalysts for Change in the Bermuda Reinsurance Market “Future trends in underwriting and developing new models and new risks will be heavily “It is critical to get your data correct before dependent on big data,” said one executive. “While larger commercial companies have you analyze it. Most older, larger companies their own databases to collate and analyze their client base, big data from brokerage face data quality issues before they can get houses will be valuable and have a much broader view of the market.” into the analysis stage.” One executive said: “With margins becoming very tight, analytics is even more important. Being able to share information with insurers helps with being relevant.” This was supported by further commentary: “We, and many other companies, have invested very large sums of money on IT. This is for both ensuring data quality, and for data mining purposes. Anyone with a serious commitment to business will be doing the same.” Summary Bermuda’s reinsurers are forward thinking and realize that investing properly in IT facilities will be absolutely crucial to their future success in an evolving market environment.
Xuber Survey Report Challenges and New Choices: Catalysts for Change in the Bermuda Reinsurance Market
5. Mergers and acquisitions – “everyone is talking to everyone else”
The ongoing soft market and continued pressure from third party capital has led many to
predict that mergers and acquisitions activity will increase in the reinsurance sector.
M&A is always a sensitive subject, but the survey suggested lots of discussions have
been taking place behind the scenes that could lead to mergers, with one executive
predicting two or three Bermuda firms will merge in the next 12 months.
Our survey found 35 percent of Bermuda firms are considering an acquisition in the
next two years and 35 percent are not. When asked if they had been approached
with a buyout offer, 12 percent said yes and 54 percent said no
35% of Bermuda firms are considering an
acquisition in the next two years
of Bermuda firms are not considering
35% an acquisition in the next two years
“Very quietly, everyone is talking to everyone else, either aggressively or defensively,” said
one. “Loss ratios and expense ratios are increasingly bunched within very narrow bands
across those with similar books or strategies, so it is increasingly difficult to differentiate or
break ahead of the pack. Sheer size will become more and more of a factor.”
“Right now, the market is encountering severe pricing pressure from alternative capital “Business will be looking at opportunities
capacity, which is in effect creating an evolution in the market. It is more likely that these for M&A in an environment where organic
changes will result in M&A consolidation than new startups,” another responded. growth is difficult to achieve so it is likely to
be a constant discussion for the foreseeable
One executive described the M&A environment, especially in London and the US, as: future.”
“Somewhat overheated. It is not clear how the valuations could support some of the
prices being paid. Some decisions clearly seem to be made more for long term strategic,
rather than purely financial reasons. Some of these mergers may, however, end in
separations or in departures of some of the key players.”
Summary
Bermuda’s reinsurers are facing ongoing soft market conditions and continuing pressure
from third party capital, suggesting mergers and acquisitions are likely in the next
12 months.Xuber Survey Report Challenges and New Choices: Catalysts for Change in the Bermuda Reinsurance Market
6. Business priorities – the smart money is on technology
In a tough business environment with an ongoing soft market, Bermuda’s insurers and “Our priorities are to find an attractive
reinsurers see investing in technology as their top priority to remain competitive. alternative market and to continue to
Change in the insurance industry is inevitable. The factors determining whether improve our investment and underwriting
companies will be in business five years from now are how quickly they can adapt to analytics. We want to generate double digit
returns in single investment environment.”
change, and their success investing in the right IT tools.
The Bermuda market is clearly a forward-thinking sector that recognizes the value of
technology. When asked to cite their top three business priorities for 2015, they
ranked technology top (19 percent) followed by searching for attractive yields and
results (12 percent) and talent (11.5 percent). Innovation, preserving capital and short
duration investing in assets such as fixed income were each named as the top priority
by eight percent of respondents, while each of the following were identified by four
percent: growth, business development, enhancement of enterprise risk
management practices ERM, investing in alternative markets, and becoming more
cost-efficient.
4% Becoming more
cost efficient 4% Joint Ventures
4% Invest in
alternative markets
19% Technology
4% Enhancement
of ERM practices
4% Business
development
12% Searching
8% Short for attractive
duration yields and returns
investing
8% Underwriting 11.5%Talent
diversification
8% Preservation
of capital 8% Innovation
8% Growth
One executive summarized their business priorities as: “Preservation of capital, absolute “Improving technology and reporting
returns, and stay short on duration.” Another cited: “Remain diversified with underweight infrastructure as regulations change/
in fixed income and overweight in global equities and fund of hedge funds.” increase is a top priority.”
Summary
Facing a range of challenges - from third party capital competition to new regulation –
Bermuda’s reinsurers recognize that investing in technology will be essential for them to
keep ahead of the field.Xuber Survey Report Challenges and New Choices: Catalysts for Change in the Bermuda Reinsurance Market
7. Summary – a catalyst for change
The reinsurance market in Bermuda is clearly facing a series of major challenges that “Whatever the challenges, having first class
are reshaping the way reinsurers do business. From the ongoing soft market to pressure technology was seen as critical to charting
from alternative capital, possible mergers and acquisitions to impending regulatory a successful course in the coming years
reform, the dynamics of the reinsurance market are changing. with executives identifying IT as their top
business priority for 2015.”
Whatever the challenges, having first class technology was seen as critical to charting a
successful course in the coming years with executives identifying IT as their top business
priority for 2015.
The new capital from hedge funds and longer-term institutional investors that is pouring
into insurance-linked securities has not yet been tested by a major catastrophe draining
billions out of the market. While opinions varied, our survey found most (77 percent)
believe ILS investors would remain in the market even after such an event, and the same
number think ILS will start moving into other traditional reinsurance classes beyond
catastrophe, such as casualty.
Questions have been asked about whether the alternative capital is being deployed as
responsibly and with as much expertise as traditional reinsurance capital. 62 percent
believe it is, although 11 percent were unsure. Most (69 percent) also believe hedge
funds have a long-term commitment to reinsurance companies.
Bermuda was overwhelmingly viewed as a good place to do business, regarded as a
well-regulated jurisdiction that is leading the field in ILS. The island is currently moving
towards equivalency with the European Union’s Solvency II regime, which is due to come
into force in January 2016. Our survey found that 62 percent thought the island’s
reputation would be damaged if it did not become Solvency II complaint, although 38
percent did not.
Feedback from executives suggests that analytics and big data will play a growing role
in the success of their business, echoing the findings of the Celent report that by 2020,
the leading insurers and reinsurers will be those that best leverage their internal and
external data.
Due to tough market conditions, talk of mergers and acquisitions will be on the agendas
of many reinsurers in the coming year. Any M&A activity will bring with it immense
organizational and IT challenges. Successful integration of two companies is never easy,
and it will be essential for reinsurers’ IT executives to be involved at the very heart of any
organization changes to ensure that the integration process is as smooth as possible.
When it comes to business priorities in this evolving economic landscape, it was
encouraging to see that our executives identified technology as their top priority.
Bermuda’s reinsurance market is facing multiple catalysts for change, and by investing
heavily in technology, these firms are giving themselves the best possible chance to
emerge from these challenging conditions in healthy shape.Xuber Survey Report Challenges and New Choices: Catalysts for Change in the Bermuda Reinsurance Market
8. Index:
1
http://abir.bm/latest-news/abir-member-survey-shows-886-8-million-contribution-to-
bermuda/
2
http://www.europeanceo.com/finance/2014/08/bermuda-a-world-leader-in-the-
insurance-linked-securities-market/
3
http://www.artemis.bm/blog/2014/05/27/bermuda-stock-exchange-listings-of-cat-
bonds-ils-hits-12-43-billion/
4
www.artemis.bm
5
http://www.europeanceo.com/finance/2014/08/bermuda-a-world-leader-in-the-
insurance-linked-securities-market/
6
http://www.artemis.bm/blog/2014/05/27/bermuda-stock-exchange-listings-of-cat-
bonds-ils-hits-12-43-billion/
7
http://media.swissre.com/documents/ILS_Market_Update_July2014.pdf
8
http://www.out-law.com/en/articles/2014/august/prudential-regulation-authority-
updates-insurers-on-its-plans-for-solvency-ii-implementation/
9
Data Mastery Spectrum Overview, Celent, July 2012.
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