Market Insights In collaboration with Santiment - Issue 2 - Cointelegraph
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In collaboration with Santiment Issue 2 July 16 – August 10, 2020 Market Insights
COINTELEGR APH CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS ISSUE 2
Ethereum’s transaction volume is catching up with Bitcoin. At its highest point this year — recorded on January 9th —
Bitcoin’s on-chain transaction volume ($7.537 billion on the day) was 32.8 times higher than that of Ethereum ($229.47 million
on the day). Today, this gap has diminished greatly. In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin’s on-chain transaction volume ($4.43 billion) was
just 3.4 times higher than that of Ethereum ($1.294 billion).
Key Takeaways
ý Bitcoin addresses holding over 100 Bitcoin have dropped to their 5-year ý Bitcoin-related sentiment has pivoted from overwhelmingly bearish
low of 15,912. This suggests that the network-wide accumulation trend before the rally to extremely bullish in the past 2 weeks, peaking
is reversing and that the recent price action has prompted a sell-off. at 1.2 standard deviations as Bitcoin retested the $12k mark.
ý Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value ratio enters the ‘danger zone’. ý Inflow of USDC to exchanges preceded the BTC rally – again. The
During the past 30 days, the ratio shot up peaking at 1.15 on Saturday rising amount of USDC moving to (known) centralized exchange
morning. This indicates that short-term Bitcoin holders are (on average) wallets has earmarked a number of BTC’s uptrends so far this year,
+15% on their initial investment. including the coin’s latest rally.
2
Reviewing Millionaire Wallet Activity, Transaction Volume, and USDC Flows
Market Analysis 100+ BTC club drops to a 5-year low
In response to Bitcoin’s break above $10k, the amount of addresses holding Since the start of the year, similar drops in Bitcoin millionaires have coincided
more than 100 BTC (~$1,120,000 at the time of writing) has dropped sharply with short-term tops for the benchmark cryptocurrency and an incoming price
over the past 7 days and is currently sitting at a 5-year low 15912. correction, like the one Bitcoin experienced on Sunday after retesting the
$12,000 resistance level.
In the last week alone, the 100 BTC club has shrunk by 75 addresses, dropping
to its lowest level since March of 2015.
Explore
BTC price
12.00K
Number of holders
11.25K
BTC Price
10.50K
9.75K
9.00K
9 Jul '20 13 Jul '20 17 Jul '20 21 Jul '20 25 Jul '20 29 Jul '20 2 Aug '20
4
Market Analysis Bitcoin’s ‘volume dominance’ over ETH continues to shrink
Since the start of the year, the pronounced gap in the amount of value on the two networks daily, expressed in USD values. At its highest point this
transferred on the two biggest blockchains has continued to dwindle. year — recorded on January 9th — Bitcoin’s on-chain transaction volume
($7.537 billion on the day) was 32.8 times higher than that of Ethereum
This can be best observed in the total amount of tokens included in transactions
($229.47 million on the day).
Explore
BTC vs ETH volume dominance
35.0
26.3
17.5
8.8
0
1 Jan '20 1 Feb '20 1 Mar '20 1 Apr '20 1 May '20 1 Jun '20 1 Jul '20 1 Aug '20
5
Market Analysis Bitcoin’s ‘volume dominance’ over ETH continues to shrink
Today, this gap has diminished greatly. In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin’s on- total amount of BTC used in daily transactions has continued to meander
chain transaction volume ($4.43 billion) was just 3.4 times higher than cyclically between $4 – 7 billion on any given day, Ethereum’s on-chain volume
that of Ethereum ($1.294 billion). The trend is largely due to a major uptick exploded along with the proliferation of DeFi platforms and lending protocols,
in Ethereum’s on-chain transaction volume over the past 30 days - while the growing by 1394% compared to the start of the year.
Explore
2.5B
1.9B
1.3B
0.6B
0
1 Jan '20 1 Feb '20 1 Mar '20 1 Apr '20 1 May '20 1 Jun '20 1 Jul '20 1 Aug '20
6
Market Analysis Bulls out in full force, says Bitcoin’s social data
In our previous report two weeks ago, we noted that Bitcoin-related sentiment 2 weeks, peaking at 1.2 standard deviations as Bitcoin retested the $12k mark.
on crypto social media stooped to a 2-year low and how this could be a positive
A very similar level of crowd confidence and ‘social hype’ has been observed
sign for BTC’s price action, which has, in the past, often rallied from
during Bitcoin’s two tops in June and July of 2019, and before a number of other
a predominantly bearish territory.
(comparatively smaller) price corrections.
Since then, the price of Bitcoin has mushroomed by more than 25%,
While the social sentiment has been gradually declining to start the week,
and with it the general mood of the crypto-oriented crowd. According
it remains predominantly bullish, which — based on the above — could pose
to Santiment’s social data, Bitcoin-related sentiment has pivoted from
a unique challenge for a sustained Bitcoin rally moving forward.
overwhelmingly bearish before the rally to extremely bullish in the past
Explore
BTC price
Bitcoin weighted
social segment
BTC Price
7
Market Analysis BTC’s mean dollar age suggests a pivot to distribution
The past 7 days have seen a notable dip in Bitcoin’s mean dollar invested It is perhaps unsurprising, then, that similar drops in Bitcoin’s MDIA have been
age (MDIA for short), which visualizes the average ‘age’ of all the dollars observed on a number of its recent price tops, including the one in February
invested to buy Bitcoin over time. Put simply, a rising slope — like the one 2020 and June 2019.
BTC has exhibited since the ‘Black Thursday’ dump — signals a network-wide
The above is further supported by a recent uptick in Bitcoin’s Age Consumed,
accumulation trend, while drop-offs point to possible distribution and
which suggests a sudden movement among coins that have been idle
an increased movement of BTC between network addresses.
or inactive for an extended amount of time. Spikes in Age Consumed can point
After a 3-month uptrend, Bitcoin’s MDIA has once again started to decline to paradigm shifts among Bitcoin’s long-term holders, and often coincide with
following last week’s push above $10k, suggesting a network-wide pivot increased volatility in the coin’s price action.
to distribution and renewed movement of previously dormant coins.
Explore
BTC price
13.1K
Mean dollar invested age
11.0K
BTC Price
8.9K
6.7K
4.6K
4 Jun '19 17 Jul'19 29 Aug '19 11 Oct'19 23 Nov'19 5 Jan '20 17 Feb '20 31 Mar '20 13 May '20 25 Jun '20 5 Aug '20
8
Market Analysis Inflow of USDC to exchanges precedes BTC rally — again
The rising amount of USDC moving to known (centralized) exchange wallets time in two months.
has earmarked a number of BTC’s uptrends so far this year, including the top
The move could suggest a renewed interest among market speculators
coin’s latest rally.
to exchange their stablecoins for more volatile assets, with BTC being one
On July 25th, as BTC was still ranging around the $9500 mark, more than of USDC’s most active trading pairs. At Santiment, we’ve noticed a number
104,000,000 USDC were moved to addresses owned by centralized exchanges. of similar spikes in USDC’s exchange-bound inflow coinciding with short-term
This was the highest single-day inflow of USDC to exchanges ever, and was Bitcoin bottoms or upcoming breakouts. This ‘relationship’ will be particularly
topped once again just 2 days later (on July 27th) when 132,000,000 USDC interesting to keep an eye on should Bitcoin attempt another push above $12k
moved to exchanges, as Bitcoin was retesting the $10,000 mark for the first in days or weeks to come.
Explore
BTC price
12.0K 49.1M
Exchange inflow
10.2K 36.9M
BTC Price
8.3K 24.7M
6.4K 12.4M
4.6K 0.3M
9
Market Analysis Bitcoin’s MVRV enters the ‘danger zone’
Bitcoin’s 30-day MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio — which tracks the As a rule of thumb, the higher the MVRV ratio gets, the more likely it is that
average profit or loss of all addresses that acquired BTC in the last 30 days — holders will start to exit their positions and take profit. As a result, analyzing
shot up amid the latest rally, peaking at 1.15 on Saturday morning. This MVRV levels around previous price tops can reveal the ballpark profit margins
indicates that short-term Bitcoin holders were (on average) +15% on their initial at which BTC’s short-term holders were comfortable selling in the past.
investment as BTC retested the $12k level.
Explore
BTC price
1.4 13.1K
1.2 10.8K
MVRV (30d)
BTC Price
1.0 8.4K
0.8 6.0K
0.6 3.7K
10Market Analysis Bitcoin’s MVRV enters the ‘danger zone’
A yearly view reveals that Bitcoin’s 30-day MVRV ratio tends to peak around On the other hand, Bitcoin’s 365-day MVRV ratio is presently hovering around
local price tops between 10%-19%, indicating that short-term holders were 1.25, indicating that the coin’s longer-term holders are (on average) up +25%
typically 10 – 19% in profit before selling. The +15% recorded around Saturday on their initial investment. While Bitcoin’s 365-day MVRV ratio has flattened
top falls right in the middle of that range, further supporting the tendency over time, it has typically peaked between 1.17 – 1.25 (+17% to +25% ROI) in the
of ‘new Bitcoin money’ to sell at these levels. Bitcoin’s 30-day MVRV ratio has past year, which could prove a concerning signal for Bitcoin’s prolonged rally.
since declined to 1.09 (+9%), which is still relatively high by historical standards
but leaves more room to grow.
Explore
MVRV (365d) BTC price
2.1 13.1K
1.7 10.8K
MVRV (365d)
BTC Price
1.3 8.4K
1.0 6.0K
0.6 3.7K
This analysis was prepared by Santiment, a market intelligence platform that provides on-chain, social media and development information on 900+ cryptocurrencies.
Santiment develops tools, strategies and indicators to help users better understand crypto market behavior and identify data-driven investment opportunities.
Sign up to Santiment here: Sign Up 11Recap of M&A, Legal, and Enterprise Blockchain
Fundraising Activity
Over 6,000 Participants Help Avalanche Blockchain Protocol South Korean Giant Hanwha
Republic Note Rocket Past $8 Million Raises $42M in 4.5-Hour During Invests $3M in Crypto Disclosure
Target Public Sale Startup
Investor: multiple, crowdfunding mechanism Investor: multiple, crowdfunding mechanism Investor: Hanwha
Business scope: securities brokerage services
Fundraising company: Republic Fundraising company: Ava Labs Headquarter: South Korea
Business scope: Investing Business scope: Blockchain protocol
Headquarter: USA Headquarter: USA Funded company: Xangle
Business scope: Crypto disclosure platform
Announcement date: July 21st, 2020 Announcement date: July 22nd, 2020 Headquarter: Philippines
Funding amount: $8 million Funding amount: $42 million
Announcement date: July 16th, 2020
JUL 21, 2020 Visit Page JUL 22, 2020 Visit Page Deal size: $3 million
JUL 16, 2020 Visit Page
13Legislation
North America
New Suit Alleges Idahoan Ponzi Disgraced Lobbyist Abramoff Will Second Lawsuit Filed Against Plaid SEC Commissioner Peirce Asks
Operators Took the Money and Ran Pay $55K as Part of Guilty Plea in SEC An action lawsuit ‘Who Did We Protect?’ in Telegram
A llegedl y, Ida - Case complaint against Shutdown
ho-based Crypto f intech star tup
Per a judgment Securities and Ex-
Traders Manage- Plaid has been filed
in the case of the change Commis-
ment (CTM) ad- with more plaintiffs
SEC v. Abramoff, sio n e r H e s te r
vertised an invest- alleging the compa-
Jack Abramoff will Peirce spoke out
ment strategy that ny violated the data privacy of users by col-
pay $55,000 in dis- on her opposition
constituted an unregistered security, while actu- lecting information on over 200 million distinct
gorgement and in- to the SEC’s suit
ally locking up user funds. CTM lured investors financial accounts who use services such as Ven-
terest for his involvement in promotion for against Telegram. Peirce referred to the
by updating them with high yields of the project mo, Coinbase, Square’s Cash App and Stripe for
AML Bitcoin, a startup that presented false SEC’s stated mission of protecting investors and
that turned out to be just a ponzi scheme. its own commercial purposes.
technological capabilities during its 2018 initial questioned who had been served by shutting
coin offering. down the Telegram Open Network.
JUL 16, 2020 Visit Page JUL 19, 2020 Visit Page
JUL 16, 2020 Visit Page JUL 21, 2020 Visit Page
US Bank Regulator: Dollars on
Coinsquare’s Leadership Forced Out US Banking Regulator Greenlights Blockchain ‘Better Than Central Bank Three Individuals Behind Alleged
After Wash Trading $5.5B Crypto Custody at Federally Monopoly on the Payments System’ PlexCoin ICO Scam Charged With
Coinsquare’s CEO Brian Brooks, the
Chartered Banks Fraud
Cole Diamond and Acting Comptrol-
The Office of the U.S. Attorney’s Of-
President Virgile ler of the Curren-
Comptroller of the fice indicted Plex-
Rostand will step cy, announced
Currency (OCC) Corps owner s
down and pay that he was a be-
is granting per- Dominic Lacroix,
a $1.6 million fine liever in decen-
mission to fed- Sabrina Par-
as part of an agreement with Canadian regula- tralization: “At the end of the day, I think that
erally chartered adis-Royer and
tor the Ontario Securities Commission (OSC). stablecoins and other blockchain-based tokeni-
banks to custody cryptocurrency. The new an ex-employee Yan Ouellet on five charges,
The settlement comes after the Canadian reg- zation of dollars are the most resilient model for
opinion “applies to national banks and federal long-term faster payments. Better than a central including conspiracy to commit securities fraud,
ulator alleged that the exchange had engaged
savings associations of all sizes.” money laundering and wire fraud.
in wash-trading. bank monopoly on the payments system.”
JUL 22, 2020 Visit Page JUL 22, 2020 Visit Page Visit Page JUL 28, 2020 Visit Page
JUL 29, 2020
14Legislation
Asia Pacific
Binance Isn't Permitted to Operate India’s Former Finance Secretary Bank of Japan Has New CBDC Japanese Financial Watchdog
in Malaysia, Local Regulator Says Spars With Industry Experts Research Team But No Plans Appoints New Commissioner
Binance was add- on Crypto Ban to Launch Japan’s Financial
ed to the Securi- The former Fi- The Bank of Japan Services Agency
ties Commission nance Secretary announced on July (FSA) has officially
(SC) Malaysia’s list of India, Subhash 20 that it had formed announced it will
of unauthorized Chandra Garg, dis- a new team to ac- hire Ryozo Himino
entities on July cussed cryptocur- celerate research as its next leader,
17th. Malayisan law requires cryptocurrency rencies with Indi- into the feasibility who is likely to be a crypto proponent. Himino
exchanges to register as Digital Assets Exchang- an industry leaders for the first time on July of central bank digital currencies (CBDC), al- will be replacing outgoing commissioner Toshi-
es with the SC. 17th. Garg said that he approves of the use though BoJ does not currently have plans to is- hide Endo, who was described as a big propo-
of crypto-assets as regulated commodities sue its own CBDC. nent of Bitcoin and Lightning Network.
JUL 17, 2020 Visit Page
but added that they must not be allowed to func-
JUL 20, 2020 Visit Page JUL 21, 2020 Visit Page
tion as currencies in India.
Kazakhstan Needs National Crypto to JUL 17, 2020 Visit Page
Chinese Supreme Court Favors Japan’s Financial Watchdog
Fight Corruption, Says Local Official Strengthening Cryptocurrency Whitelists OMG Network Token
Alik Shpekbayev, South Korea Finalizes Property Rights The body for reg-
the Chairman
Cryptocurrency Income Tax of 20% China’s Supreme ulating digital as-
of Kazakhstan's an- sets in Japan, the
The South Korean Court calls for
ti-corruption ser- Financial Services
government has strengthening the
vice has called Agency (FSA), has
announced a 20% protection of prop-
on the govern- whitelisted OMG
tax rate for income erty rights pertain-
ment to develop a national digital currency Network’s native token for trading.
generated from ing to — among
to fight corruption in the country. Kazakh-
cryptocurrency other things — “digital currency, network
stan’s digital tenge has a potential to reduce
trading.Income from virtual assets below virtual property, and data” and punishing for JUL 23, 2020 Visit Page
transaction costs and to prevent corruption
2.5 million won per year ($2,000) falls below all types of infringement on property rights,
at the governmental level as it will provide bet-
the minimum threshold and will not be taxed. including embezzlement and sale of state-owned
ter transparency.
and public assets.
Visit Page JUL 22, 2020 Visit Page
JUL 21, 2020
JUL 22, 2020 Visit Page
15Legislation
Asia Pacific
Japanese Liquid Exchange South Korean Police Indian PM Backs 27 Key Execs at PlusToken China Didn’t Ban Bitcoin
to Delist Zcash to Get Investigate Who Leaked Blockchain as 'Frontier Scam Are Reportedly Entirely, Says Beijing
Licensed in Singapore the Crypto Tax Bill Technology' Arrested Arbitration Commission
Japanese cryptocurrency exchange The South Korean police have The Prime Minister of India, Naren- Chinese police have arrested Beijing Arbitration Commission
Liquid is reportedly delisting priva- launched an investigation into the dra Modi, has endorsed blockchain 27 core PlusToken team members. (BAC) clarified that China prohib-
cy-focused coin Zcash (ZEC) in or- source of leaked information about as an ‘opportunity in frontier tech- The total amount of investor loss- its token funding and trading plat-
der to apply for a license to operate the government’s new crypto tax nology’ at the India Ideas Summit. es in the PlusToken scam is esti- forms from engaging in exchanges
in Singapore. legal amendments, details of which India wants to open up to the frontier mated at 40 billion Chinese yuan between the legal tender and virtual
got published in a state-themed site. technologies of 5G, Big data analyt- or $5.7 billion. currency or tokens. However, the
JUL 23, 2020 Visit Page ics, Quantum computing, Blockchain same law that bans cryptocurrency
JUL 24, 2020 Visit Page and Internet of things in general. as money, recognizes it as a virtual
JUL 30, 2020 Visit Page
commodity.
JUL 24, 2020 Visit Page
JUL 30, 2020 Visit Page
16Legislation
Europe, the Middle East and Africa
Missing Wirecard Exec Found in Belarus; Romania Is on the Way to Blockchain and Crypto Updated Russian Crypto Bill Defangs
Russia’s FSB Involvement Suspected Regulation Punishments for Using Crypto
Jan Marsalek, the former COO On July 18, 2020, Part I, Law No. A new version of Russia’s major
of Wirecard who went missing after 129/2019 for preventing and com- draft bill “On Digital Financial As-
his supposed trip to the Philippines bating money laundering and ter- sets” does not intend to introduce
to chase the missing 2 billion Euro rorist financing was published criminal liability such as fines and
in the company’s books, has been in the Official Gazette of Romania, prison terms for illegal use of cryp-
located in Belarus. Russian Fed- but it did not fully transpose AMLD5. to. However, except for the DFA, there
eral Security Service’s, or FSB is alleged to take part in the To transpose the rest of 5AMLD into Romanian legislation and is also another bill that is called “On Digital Currency,” which
disappearance, because FSB has control over the centralized supplement Law No. 129/2019 an Emergency Ordinance was is a separate document that would actually determine crypto
Russia-Belarus border database. adopted. regulation and is supposed to be passed in autumn.
JUL 19, 2020 Visit Page JUL 20, 2020 Visit Page JUL 20, 2020 Visit Page
UK Treasury Wants to Bring Crypto Ads Under Russian Lawmakers Finally Pass Country’s Major Scratch ‘Blockchain Island,’ Malta Now Wants
Direct Gov’t Oversight Crypto Bill to Become a Digital Enclave
The government of the United The State Duma — Russia’s legisla- The Maltese government is continu-
Kingdom believes that current rules tive body — has passed a bill titled ing to take a more holistic approach
do not go far enough to protect con- “On Digital Financial Assets”, which toward digital economy development.
sumers from misleading crypto ads is expected to be officially adopted Malta now wants not only to be ac-
and proposes to bring the promo- in Russia on Jan. 1, 2021. The bill pro- tive in crypto space, but also to at-
tion of certain types of crypto as- vides a legal definition to digital tract fintech startups.
sets under direct regulation from the Financial Conduct Au- assets and legitimizes cryptocurrency trading, but prohibits
thority. the use of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin as a payment method.
JUL 21, 2020 Visit Page JUL 22, 2020 Visit Page JUL 24, 2020 Visit Page
17Legislation
Europe, the Middle East and Africa
Ukrainian Ministry Plans to Track Crypto Illegal Crypto Mining is Booming in the Republic Mastercard Exec Reportedly Linked to Suspect
Transactions With Bitfury of Abkhazia Transactions at Cyprus Bank
The Ministry for Digital Transfor- The Republic of Abkhazia is witness- FBME, a bank that was accused of be-
mation of Ukraine, a major govern- ing a surge in crypto mining activ- ing used to facilitate money laun-
ment authority behind local crypto ities despite crypto ban. Customs dering, terrorist financing and other
regulation, will be implementing Bit- have reported that mining hardware illicit activity, is reported to have
fury’s crypto analytics tool to track worth over $589,000 has crossed the ties to Wirecard via a Mastercard
crypto transactions in order to ver- border over the past six months, executive.
ify the source of illicit transactions. but the imports are allowed in order to “hunt” for illegal
crypto miners, according to the customs. JUL 28, 2020 Visit Page
JUL 24, 2020 Visit Page
JUL 25, 2020 Visit Page
Russia’s Central Bank Keeps Insisting That Crypto Cambodians Still Waiting on Central Bank Digital
Is ‘Criminal’ Currency
Sergei Shvetsov, the first deputy Cambodia’s national block-
governor at the Bank of Russia, chain-based currency is expect-
announced: “The Bank of Russia, ed to become fully operational
as a regulator, adheres to the po- in the coming months. It has been
sition that crypto purchases are in limited use since its pilot launch
not an investment. It is more like in July 2019 and is already accepted
a financial pyramid or roulette games, and does not apply to the by 16 banks and over 15,000 users, with over 600 shops across
financial market.” Cambodia.
JUL 28, 2020 Visit Page JUL 29, 2020 Visit Page
18Enterprise Blockchain Adoption
Supply Chain Financial Services
US FDA Considers Blockchain for Food Security Dubai Debuts Nationwide Data Platform Philippines Launches Blockchain App
The United States Food and Drug Powered by Blockchain to Distribute Government Bonds
Administration released a blueprint The United Arab Emirates is de- Philippine Bureau of the Treasury
and pilot study for food safety, buting a blockchain-based Know along with the UnionBank and
highlighting blockchain as a viable Your Customer platform, which Philippine Digital Asset Exchange
option for tracking events and key will be used to unlock digital cus- launched a blockchain-enabled
data elements from industry and tomer onboarding, instant bank mobile application called Bonds.
regulatory partners. account functions, and verified PH for distributing govern-
KYC data sharing. Over 120 companies are already onboarded. ment-issued treasury bonds.
JUL 16, 2020 Visit Page
JUL 29, 2020 Visit Page JUL 21, 2020 Visit Page
IOHK and BeefChain Team Up to Answer CoolBitX Partnering with Elliptic to Address Top Spanish Banks Finalize Trial of Payments
‘Where’s the Beef?’ FATF’s Travel Rule Using Smart Contracts
The team behind Cardano (ADA) FinTech company CoolBitX will Multinational banking giant Ban-
blockchain, IOHK, have partnered with be partnering with cryptocur- co Santander, along with Banco
Wyoming-based BeefChain to utilize rency forensics firm Elliptic to ad- Sabadell, BBVA, Bankia and Caix-
blockchain technology to standardize dress anti-money laundering abank, has successfully finalized
the tracking and recording processes (AML) regulations for virtual a proof-of-concept for payments
for beef products along the supply asset service providers (VASPs) using smart contracts. A block-
chain from ranches to markets. in accordance with the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) chain network with seven operating nodes successfully ex-
travel rule. ecuted over 20000 transactions with an average processing
JUL 23, 2020 Visit Page time of 2.5 seconds.
JUL 21, 2020 Visit Page
JUL 17, 2020 Visit Page
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