LSL New Build Index - LSL Land & New Homes
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LSL New Build Index
The market indicator for New Builds February 2019
In the year to end Jan 2019 new build prices per m² rose by an average of
3.87% across the UK
The Market seeing price falls whilst most other Southern based cities are
In ‘The Long View’ section below we look at the growth of seeing rises of around 2%.
‘cities’, both globally and within the UK. The Hometrack ‘UK The new style LSL Land & New Homes infographic (next
Cities House Price Index’, looks at house price movement page) looks at the the percentage change in prices by
at city level across 20 cities. It finds a general weakening property type over the past year in the North and South.
in prices in the Southern cities which have enjoyed most Average £psm selling price, based on Gross External Areas is
growth since the 2007/8 downturn, and an uplift in prices in also shown at regional level, again by property type.
the Midlands and North which have seen only limited growth
At the National level, the main housing market price indices
during this period. Birmingham, Cardiff, Edinburgh, Liverpool,
are edging below the 1% year on year house price growth
Leeds, Manchester, Nottingham and Sheffield have all seen
mark. At the regional level the picture is generally of a flat
healthy growth in the 5 to 7% range over the twelve months
or slightly declining South, with a more buoyant Midlands
to December 2018. Aberdeen, Cambridge and London are
and North. In many areas prices have not risen significantlyPowered by
since the last peak, which was
over a decade since. Current low
interest rates, low inflation and high
employment levels, combined with
modest growth in real earnings, will
all be helping to limit the impact of
any slowdown in house price growth.
The Long View
Major housing association L&Q
has pledged to increase its offsite
construction delivery by a factor of
five as they move towards having
offsite construction involved in
all their new builds by 2025. The
organisation presently uses some
form of MMC (Modern Methods of
trendy residential blocks being built, along with cafés bars
Construction) on 20% of its sites and it aims to increase
and gyms to service these new populations. Using a set of
this to all sites over the next six years. By 2028 it intends
standardised measures, the Centre for Cities has measured
on delivering its first fully offsite constructed home. They
growth in leading urban areas between 2002 and 2015.
are planning on working with various MMC companies to
They found strong growth particularly in the Northern and
use a variety of modular products such as kitchen pods and
Midlands based areas. Liverpool has seen most growth
balconies.
at 181% but is closely followed by other centres such as:
The United Nations has projected that 68% of the world’s Manchester with 149%, Leeds with 150%, Birmingham at
population will live in urban areas by 2050. Within the UK, 163% and Leicester at 145%. The cause for this growth
the Centre for Cities has analysed data on city dwellers and is a combination of growing student numbers and young
made some interesting findings. Over the past two decades professionals who want to live close to their work.
the nature of cities has started to change with ever more
First Time Buyers - Affordability.
2 BED 70 SQ.M AVE ANNUAL EARNINGS AFFORDABILITY
HPE
STARTER HOME FULL TIME EMPLOYEES INDEX
East Anglia £230,048 £33,818 6.80 113
East Midlands £141,523 £27,937 5.07 84
Greater London £424,804 £40,295 10.54 175
North East £117,200 £26,924 4.35 72
North West £143,577 £28,732 5.00 83
Scotland £159,777 £29,671 5.39 89
South East £245,085 £35,825 6.84 113
South West £176,696 £29,568 5.98 99
Wales £155,450 £27,790 5.59 93
West Midlands £176,415 £29,242 6.03 100
Yorkshire and the Humber £135,094 £28,150 4.80 80
Average 6.04 100
This is based on a weighted calculation which reflects regional differences in sales volumes of flats and terraced property.
Ave annual earnings from ONS EARN 05: Average Gross Earnings of Full Time Employees.Powered by
One good measure of building
activity in city centres is the
Deloitte Regional Crane Survey
which counts the numbers of
cranes across various major UK
centres. The 2019 results have
recently been published and the
counts cover both commercial
and residential schemes.
Birmingham is seeing record
levels of activity as confidence
is high in anticipation of the
2022 Commonwealth Games
and the start of HS2. City Centre
residential development has
reached an all time high with over
5,000 units under construction
and office development to 4%, which is the lowest rate since 1975. The number of
has exceeded 1.4 million square feet for the third year people in work increased by 141,000, representing a record
running. In Leeds 2,232 residential units are currently high employment rate of 75.8%. As earnings growth is now
under construction across the city centre as well as the outpacing inflation, and is forecast to continue doing so, there
second highest level of office space under construction is a long-awaited growth in real earnings.
(804,257 sq ft) since the Leeds crane survey began. The
Whilst the overall picture from the housing market continues
survey also reports that Manchester is establishing itself
to be relatively subdued, the half yearly results from leading UK
as one of Europe’s fastest growing cities with entire new
house builders remains positive. A number of the main house
neighbourhoods in development which are extending
builders are reporting strong forward sales positions, increases
the city both upwards and outwards. In Manchester over
in turnover and pre-tax profits and year on year increases in
14,400 residential units are under construction across 48
sales. As noted before, it is likely that the the strength of the
developments. It is expected that the delivery of residential
sector is a reflection of a growing quality of the product it sells.
units over the next three years will exceed the combined
total of the previous ten years. Over two million square feet The NHBC has recently reported its 2018 full year starts and
of office space across 13 developments began construction completions data. During 2018 developers registered 159,617
in 2018. starts which is 0.5% down on the 2017 figure. Completions
were up by 1% and eight of the twelve months in 2018 showed
Current News an increase in registrations on the previous year. To some
extent new build starts also reflect changes in house prices
Currently the economic indicators are mixed. Uncertainty
across the regions. London has seen a 10% fall in registrations
seems to be a key reason behind a recent economic downshift,
on 2017, whilst some regions have seen strong growth,
but this is against a more positive backdrop of high levels of
Yorkshire & the Humber saw 20% growth in registrations over
employment and wage growth.
the period, the North West 7% and Northern Ireland 39%.
A tightening labour market is pushing up wage growth which
is now at its strongest level for a decade. The annual increase
in average earnings (excluding bonuses) in the three months
to November 2018 stood at 3.3% whilst unemployment fellPowered by
Detached
Flats
Average New Home price per square metre Semis
Period February 2018 to January 2019. Terrace
North/South Average % Change
SCOTLAND £ AVERAGE / M2 NORTH % AVERAGE SOUTH % AVERAGE
£1,836 10.46 % 2.41 %
£2,355 -0.33 % -0.71 %
£1,793 4.41 % 4.86 %
£2,069 8.22 % 2.87 %
NORTH WEST £ AVERAGE / M2 NORTH EAST £ AVERAGE / M2
£2,161 £1,710
£2,331 £1,857
£1,855 £1,714
£1,965 £1,635
WEST YORKSHIRE &
£ AVERAGE / M2 £ AVERAGE / M2
MIDLANDS THE HUMBER
£2,295 £1,993
£3,007 £2,110
£2,225 £1,769
£2,336 £1,812
WALES £ AVERAGE / M2 EAST
£ AVERAGE / M2
MIDLANDS
£1,692 £1,974
£2,297 £2,179
£1,834 £1,976
£1,671 £2,010
SOUTH WEST £ AVERAGE / M2 GREATER LONDON £ AVERAGE / M2 SOUTH EAST £ AVERAGE / M2 EAST ANGLIA £ AVERAGE / M2
£2,605 £4,865 £3,431 £2,927
£3,008 £7,040 £4,002 £3,797
£2,401 £5,190 £3,399 £3,047
£2,467 £5,146 £3,333 £3,090Powered by
Notes
This Index has been prepared by e.surv using anonymised The business employs circa 450 chartered surveyors and
data based on a proportion of all new build valuations covers the entire UK.
provided for lending purposes. Figures represent 12 month
LSL Land & New Homes is a trading name of LSL Land & New
rolling averages for each period. The copyright and all other
Homes Ltd, which is a member of the LSL Property Services
intellectual property rights in the Index belong to e.surv.
Group Estate Agency Division, one of the leading residential
Reproduction in whole or part is not permitted unless an
property services groups in the UK. It’s strategy is to create
acknowledgement to e.surv as the source is included. No
partnerships with developers and builders to support their
modification is permitted without e.surv’s prior written
objectives and add value to their businesses.
consent.
It can provide integrated solutions for their benefit drawing
Whilst care is taken in the compilation of the Index no
on the expertise of companies who are also under the LSL
representation or assurances are made as to its accuracy
Group umbrella including valuation services (e.surv), rental
or completeness. e.surv reserves the right to vary the
portfolio services, asset management services and estate
methodology and to edit or discontinue the Index in whole or
agency services fronted by well-known high street estate
in part at anytime.
agency brands like Your Move and Reeds Rains. Services
e.surv (www.esurv.co.uk) is the Valuation business of LSL can be tailored to suite individual needs from bespoke site
Property Services plc (www.lslps.co.uk) and is the UK’s largest sales and marketing, agency referral to the disposal of part
residential valuation practice, acting for lenders, developers, exchange, assisted schemes and new build stock, land sales
Social Housing organisations and other stakeholders in the and acquisitions.
residential property market.
For further information or enquiries regarding the underlying data of the
LSL New Build Index, please contact Shaun Peart via email
Shaun.Peart@lslnewhomes.co.uk or by phoning 07789 948411.
For further information about the LSL Property Services Group including
LSL Land & New Homes and e.surv, visit www.lslps.co.uk
Disclaimer: The data is provided by LSL Land & New Homes and is based on data provided as described above. While reasonable skill and care has been taken in the preparation of the data –
the copyright and all other intellectual property rights of which belong to e.surv limited - neither e.surv Limited nor LSL Land & New Homes can accept liability for the accuracy or completeness
of the data provided.
Reproduction in whole or part is not permitted unless an acknowledgment to e.surv Limited is included. No modification is permitted without e.surv Limited’s prior written consent.
No warranty of the figures is given and no responsibility or liability of any nature to you or any third party for the whole or any part of its content is accepted. It is assumed that you will carry
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