Lithium-Ion Batteries: The Incumbent Technology - Platform for Coal Regions in Transition
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Lithium-Ion Batteries: The Incumbent Technology Platform for Coal Regions in Transition James Frith April 08, 2019
Prices 1 @JamesTFrith
Lithium-ion battery prices have
fallen 85% since 2010
Lithium-ion battery pack price (real 2018 $/kWh) Cummulative demand for lithium-ion batteries (GWh)
1,400 10,000
9,000
1,200
E-bus
8,000
1,000 7,000
Stationary
6,000 storage
800
5,000 Passenger
2024 implied EV
600
price 4,000
$94/kWh 2030 Observed
400 implied 3,000 prices
price
$62/kWh 2,000
18%
200 learning
1,000
rate
0 0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Source: BloombergNEF
2 @JamesTFrithThis is largely thanks to the EV
industry
Annual GWh demand
2,000
1,800
1,600
Stationary
1,400 storage
1,200 Consumer
electronics
1,000
E-buses
800
600 Passenger
EVs
400
200
0
2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Source: BloombergNEF, Avicenne
3 @JamesTFrithSource: OERhub.net 4 @JamesTFrith
Battery rack costs
Other costs
Source: OERhub.net
5 @JamesTFrithSystem level prices continue to fall
Real 2018 $/kWh
20MW/80MWh system
600 581 Transformer
32
28 Developer margin
500
81
Grid connection
400 58
357
338
68 20 319
18 19 299 Developer
300 20 18 18 278 overheads
40 17 17 255
15 39 17 15 234
15 38 17 EPC*
37 14 37 14 214 203
18 36 14 36 16 13 193 184
200 17 36 13 34 16 12 176 170
17 35 12 33 16 11
16 11
16 34 11 32 15 10
15 10
15 32 30 29 15 9
15 Energy
286 14 30 11 10 28 28
13 30 28 10 9 9 27 Management
100 204 13 12 27 26 26 8
189 173 11 11 25 System
158 142 10 10 Balance of system
127 111 96 90 84 79 74 70
0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Note * Includes a 10% EPC margin. Developer overheads set at 5% of total system costs, and developer margin set at 10%.
6 @JamesTFrithThis has led to Lithium-ion dominating the
storage market (on a power basis)
3% 6% 3% 5%
7% 12%
19% 18% 5%
3%
25%
6% 18%
8%
6% Other /
3%
9% unknown
Flywheels
22%
Flow batteries
94% Sodium
87% 85% sulphur
Lead-based
69% 68%
61% Lithium-ion
49%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: Bloomberg NEF. Note: Excludes pumped hydro. If multiple technologies are selected, the capacity is divided equally amongst them.
7 @JamesTFrithBut other technologies can be better on an
energy basis
26%
37%
46% 45%
51% 52% 1% 52%
Other /
unknown
Flywheels
4%
0% Flow batteries
6% 0%
4% 14% 3%
4% Sodium
15% 5% 9% sulphur
2% 74% Lead-based
57% Lithium-ion
46%
37% 40%
33% 34%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: Bloomberg NEF. Note: Excludes pumped hydro. If multiple technologies are selected, the capacity is divided equally amongst them.
8 @JamesTFrithThe Good & Bad 9 @JamesTFrith
Why use storage? (and particularly lithium-ion) Fossil Fuel generator providing frequency response Source: Pixelartmaker.com 10 @JamesTFrith
Generating assets aren’t good for quick response Fossil Fuel generator providing frequency Battery storage providing frequency response response Source: Pixelartmaker.com Source: Groundreport.com 11 @JamesTFrith
Lithium-ion batteries biggest
weakness is commodity prices
Lithium hydroxide price - Asia Cobalt spot price - Shanghai
$ / metric ton $ / metric ton
25,000 120,000
100,000
20,000
80,000
15,000
60,000
10,000
40,000
5,000 20,000
0 0
2014 2015 2016 2018 2014 2015 2016 2018
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Benchmark Minerals, Antaike Note: prices Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Benchmark Minerals, Antaike Note: prices
correct as of January 28, 2018 correct as of January 28, 2018
12 @JamesTFrithCobalt can be avoided
4%
16% 19%
19% 40%
40% NMC (811)
34% 29%
15% NMC (622)
73%
NMC (442)
35% 14% NMC (111)
12% 17% 17%
LFP
NCA
LMO
36% 36% 33% 34%
30% 30%
23%
2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Source: Bloomberg NEF Note: Excludes pumped hydro. If multiple applications are selected, the capacity is divided equally amongst them.
13 @JamesTFrithWhat does the future look like? 14 @JamesTFrith
Energy shifting dominates the market
3% 2% 3%
9% 7%
13% 15% 13%
21% 19%
16% 21% Other
25%
6% 28% 8% 15% 27% Residential
16% Commercial
4%
6% 19% Distribution
36% 23%
Transmission
29% 22% 5% 9% 26%
Energy Shifting
33%
9% 0% Peaking
2% 6% capacity
35% 34% Ancillary
1% 26%
22% 22% services
20%
15%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: Bloomberg NEF Note: Excludes pumped hydro. If multiple applications are selected, the capacity is divided equally amongst them.
15 @JamesTFrithEnergy shifting will create new
opportunities for storage
Cumulative storage deployments by Cumulative storage deployments by
application, based on power output application, based on energy capacity
GWh Other
GW
3,000
1,000 EV charging
900
2,500 Behind-the-meter:
800 C&I demand charges
700 Behind-the-meter:
2,000 commercial
600 Behind-the-meter:
1,500 residential
500
Distribution
400
1,000 Transmission
300
200 Energy shifting
500
100 Peaking capacity
0 0
2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Ancillary services
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
16 @JamesTFrithThere are somethings lithium-ion
probably wont be able to do
Generation (GW)
Germany low renewable generation week, 2040
200
Curtailment
180
160 Charging
140 Discharging
120
Solar
100
Wind
80
60 Dispatchable
40
Nuclear
20
Demand
0
Source: Bloomberg NEF
17 @JamesTFrithParticularly long duration energy
shifting
Generation (GW)
Germany high renewable generation week, 2040
300
New storage technologies, with a long storage duration, are needed for
shifting loads by weeks or months Curtailment
250 12hrs Charging
200 Discharging
Solar
150
Wind
100
Dispatchable
50 Nuclear
Demand
0
Source: Bloomberg NEF
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