Irish Housing Market International Investor Report 2021 - Knight Frank Research Reports
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Knight Frank
Research Reports
Irish Housing
KNIGHTFRANK.COM/RESEARCH
Market International
Investor Report 2021
March 2021
I R I S H H O U S I N G M A R K E T I N T E R N AT I O N A L I N V E S TO R R E P O R T 20 2 1
5
HOU S ING M A RK E T ECONOMIC DRIVE RS
Key The Irish housing market is supported Demand & Supply The Irish economy has been the Driven largely by strong activity in these
Take-Aways by two key fundamentals – a fast fastest growing economy in the EU two key sectors, Irish GDP grew by
growing economy and a fast growing
population. Population growth is the
Demand is strong across all
categories with first time buyers
since 2014. 2020 was no exception,
despite the shock of the Covid-19
3.4% in 2020. Growth is expected
to rebound further this year, with Why Ireland?
strongest in Europe, driven by a natural very active in the new homes pandemic. The structure and profile expectations that GDP will increase
increase combined with net inward market. Investor demand for Private of the Irish economy is quite unique. by 3.6% plus, increasing to over 4% in
migration. Residential Schemes (PRS) has been Economic activity is driven by high 2022.
unprecedented, with 40% of investor value adding sectors and multi-national
Demographic Drivers spend in commercial property in companies, who have invested heavily The consumer is expected to rebound
2020, invested in large residential in property, production and people. strongly as the Covid-19 vaccine
1
The population is currently estimated schemes. This trend is expected to programme is rolled out, boosted by
to be almost 5 million and is forecast continue in 2021 and 2022, reducing As a small open economy, English household savings which are at an all-
1. Population Growth to reach 6 million by 2051, growing at a the supply of new units available speaking and with a highly educated time high. Dublin is the
» Fastest growing population rate of 0.69% per annum. for individual purchase. In order to work-force, Ireland has been very capital city of
in Europe meet natural demand, an estimated successful in attracting Foreign Direct Overall, despite the shock of the global
30% of the population live in Dublin. One 28,000-30,000 house completions Investment. Dublin, as the capital city, pandemic, the Irish economy has Ireland - the
third of the Irish population are under (including single houses, houses in is home to the European head-quarters shown that decades of investment in fastest growing
the age of 25, giving Ireland one of the a development and apartments) are of multi-nationals such as Google, Research & Development, education
youngest, most dynamic populations in required per annum. While annual Facebook, Linkedin, Twitter, Amazon and and infrastructure has paid dividends,
economy in EU
2
the world. completions have increased in recent Microsoft to name just a few. allowing the economy to continue to flex
2. Strong natural demand for years, averaging 18,500 since 2016, and grow and meet global demand for
housing there is still a considerable shortage. Many of these multi-nationals have also expert products and services. Ireland is home
Despite the additional challenge posed invested in commercial buildings and
by Covid-19 lockdown periods in 2020, they tend to “cluster” in central Dublin Multinational Companies
to Top Global
there was a surge in completions in locations, which has become known Driving the Economy Companies
between lockdowns with just over as a Tech Hub. Coupled with this, the
3
20,000 completions. The appetite pharmaceutical and medical devices Tech Hub
3. Supply lags demand of international investors for housing sectors, along with other manufacturing
investment in Ireland combined with companies, are also very high value Education &
normal housing demand means that a adding.
shortage of housing stock will remain Talent
a challenging feature of the housing
market for the foreseeable future, The contribution of the
4. Prices increasing steadily sustaining rents and putting upward TMT sector to overall » Ireland is in the Top 10 Globally
since 2013 pressure on prices. for quality of the education
GDP growth in 2020 system
2020 Prices was 37%, while industry
4
All of the world’s top pharma
Apartments 5.1% Dublin
Prices have been consistently
(including pharma) companies and 14 out of 15 of the
4.8% Nationally increasing on an annual basis since contributed 15% world’s top med-tech companies Tax Regime
Ireland’s population
New houses 1.2% Dublin 2013. 2020 saw a 2% increase in new 12.5% corporation tax
growth and unique units, with apartments increasing more
2.1% Nationally
economic growth profile than houses.
5
support a natural long In summary, given the demographic and
term source of demand economic profile of Ireland, the housing
market is set to remain very active 18 out of 25 of the world’s top financial Lifestyle
for housing
over the coming years. Sustainability services companies
5. Density, creative design, combined with a requirement for a
planning & work/life balance to broader product offering to meet
drive vision of the Future investor demand, is expected to drive » 400+ golf courses
value add across the sector. » Easy access hub to the US and
the rest of Europe
I R I S H H O U S I N G M A R K E T I N T E R N AT I O N A L I N V E S TO R R E P O R T 20 2 1
PROF IL E OF
ECONOMIC
GROW T H
40% 16% 9% 9% 10% 6% 6% 4%
Industry & Pharma TMT Distribution, Transport, Professional Public Sector Real Estate Financial Services Construction
Hotels & Restaurants & Other
DE MOGR A PHIC PROF IL E
Population by Household Size
24% 29% 17% 17% 9% 4%
HOU S ING S U PPLY VE RS U S DE M A ND HOU S E PRICE
INDICES
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Demand per annum Supply per annum
Source: CSO & Knight Frank Research
I R I S H H O U S I N G M A R K E T I N T E R N AT I O N A L I N V E S TO R R E P O R T 20 2 1
HOW M UCH S PACE WIL L F O R T WIL L I A M , B L AC K RO C K , 14 3 M E RRION ROA D, DU B L IN 4
CO DU B L IN
€ 1 MIL L ION B U Y
Dublin compares favourably to London,
New York and Hong Kong across a
range of metrics as illustrated in the
infographic. Examining the purchasing N E W YO RK
power of one million euro in Dublin, one
HONG
can purchase approximately 4.75 times KO N G
the amount of prime space than in Hong
Kong and between 3 and 3.5 times the
amount of prime space than in London
and New York.
Dublin...................... 133 sqm D U B L IN
New York................ 42 sqm
London.................... 38 sqm LO N D O N
Hong Kong.............28 sqm
Knight Frank Research as of Q4 2020.
Local property tax and transaction taxes
apply. » Gated development of four unique houses » Chic, contemporary apartments & penthouses
» Four bed houses with parking and terraces » Spectacular sea views from many homes
» Close to UCD & Blackrock College » Moments from beach & easy access to city
NE W RES IDE N T I A L T HE CO L L EC T IO N , S HRE WS B U RY
ROA D, D U B L IN 4
T HE PINN AC L E , M O U N T
M E RRION , CO DU B L IN
M O N T E RE Y, S A N DY M O U N T,
DU B L IN 4
DE VE LOPME N T S
L AU NCHING
IN 202 1
» Gated development of seven substantial houses » Boutique development of apartments & penthouses » Nine contemporary designed gated houses
» Ireland’s number one address » Incredible views out over Dublin Bay » Prime location near Sandymount Village & Beach
» Super-Prime embassy location » Prime residential location with great amenities » Bright living spaces, gardens and roof terraces
R E S ID E N T IAL
James Meagher, Director
+353 1 634 2466
james.meagher@ie.knightfrank.com
Ray Palmer-Smith, Director
+353 1 634 2466
ray.palmer-smith@ie.knightfrank.com
Evan Lonergan, Director
+353 1 634 2466
evan.lonergan@ie.knightfrank.com
Peter Kenny, Director of Residential
+353 1 634 2466
peter.kenny@ie.knightfrank.com
Guy Craigie, Director of Residential
+353 1 634 2466
guy.craigie@ie.knightfrank.com
R E S E AR CH
Joan Henry, Chief Economist & Head
of Research
+353 1 634 2466
john.ring@ie.knightfrank.com
Robert O’Connor, Senior Business Analyst
+353 1 634 2466
robert.oconnor@ie.knightfrank.com
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