Inflation, Rising Rates and Their Impact on Infrastructure - March 2021
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INSTITUTIONAL PERSPECTIVES
March 2021
Inflation, Rising Rates and
Their Impact on Infrastructure
Key Takeaways
f Rising rates and accompanying inflation will have little impact on valuations of
regulated assets in the medium to longer term if inflation can be directly or indirectly
passed through to customers.
f User-pays assets typically see cash flows increase if there is a cyclical upswing in
growth and interest rates, with increasing valuations more than offsetting the impact
of a rising cost of capital.
f There appears to be little to no correlation between various infrastructure assets and
inflation over the past 30 years.
Following on from the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, central banks and governments have
aggressively stimulated their economies. The likely result of this aggressive stimulus is
rising inflation and accelerating global growth. Investors need to prepare for a world
of rising yields after a long period of structural decline. For infrastructure, in contrast to
conventional wisdom, such a scenario need not be feared, but rather understood and
managed. The impact of rising yields depends on whether they are in response to the
cycle or whether they represent a more fundamental structural change. Different types of
companies also react very differently.
The impact of rising rates depends on the reason for that increase. It also depends on the
type of asset. We distinguish between:
• Regulated assets, where revenues are normally determined by a return on an
underlying asset base, which is in turn determined by the level of investment. The
details of the way in which returns are set vary widely between assets. The main
difference, though, relates to whether prices and the assets are index linked, and cash
returns based on a real cost of capital (with examples in the U.K., Australia), or whether
the regulator looks at nominal assets and grants a nominal return.
• User-pays assets, where control of prices for transport assets is usually set out in
a contract agreed at the time of grant of the concession, with volume risk (traffic,
passenger, container, etc.) borne by the operator. Other infrastructure
(e.g., communications) often has long-term contracts that include price escalation.INFLATION, RISING RATES AND THEIR IMPACT ON INFRASTRUCTURE
Regulated Assets User-Pays Assets
One of the most important characteristics of regulated User-pays assets behave very differently from
assets is returns allowed by regulators will depend on regulated utilities:
how interest rates and the cost of capital develop in • They typically have greater exposure to GDP
the future. If interest rates rise, in order to facilitate growth. Cash flows increase if there is a cyclical
future funding of capital investment, regulators need upswing in growth and interest rates, with
to increase the allowed returns. Such increases do not increasing valuations more than offsetting the
happen immediately, and may not happen automatically, impact of a rising cost of capital.
but there is a process by which over the medium term
regulated returns should rise and fall in line with rises and • Their long-term cash flows for existing assets do not
falls in the cost of capital (which can be assumed to relate normally respond to changes in interest rates or the
to interest rates). The precise way this is done differs cost of capital. This means that valuations at an exit
between countries: date respond negatively to increases in long-term
interest rates. The negative impact will be higher
• In countries where there is a regular reset of prices (e.g., the longer the duration of the asset.
the U.K. and Australia), the regulator conducts a review
of the appropriate cost of capital at the time of the reset • The behavior depends crucially on whether
and uses this in the price control determination. While assets have returns linked to an inflation index.
the cost of capital determination may deviate (positively Under scenarios where growth increases, inflation
or negatively) from the underlying cost of capital, over increases, and real rates decline, index-linked assets
time it can be expected to match investors’ required will demonstrate strong positive returns. Assets not
returns and directly pass through inflation. linked to an inflation index would underperform.
• In other countries, companies need to apply for While rising rates due to increased growth
permission to increase rates (e.g., the U.S. and Canada). expectations would be a positive to both user-
In these systems, the appropriate regulatory authority pays assets and regulated utilities, what about
will also make an assessment of the cost of capital or rising inflation?
cost of equity and use this in the determination. Again,
changes in the cost of capital will in the medium term be Case Study 1: The Impact of Inflation
reflected in the prices that the company can charge and on European Utilities
so in essence these assets are also able to pass through While regulations in different countries in Europe
higher costs that may occur from rising inflation. have various technical differences, in essence they
The requirement for a regulator to offer reasonable are designed to protect the remunerations utilities
returns is usually established in the legal framework receive for capital investment against macroeconomic
supporting the operation of the utility or other asset changes, which include inflation.
owner. This means that: Nonetheless, there is one major difference within the
• Investors can expect that changes in interest rates will sector: whether allowed returns (i.e., the weighted
be reflected in future cash flows over the medium and average cost of capital or WACC) are set in nominal
longer term. As a result, the underlying asset value at terms (as in Spain, Portugal, Czech Republic and
an assumed investment exit date in the medium term Poland) or real terms (as in the U.K., Italy, Sweden
is likely to be relatively independent of interest rates. and Hungary).
This is because any changes to the rate used to discount WACC and Allowed Return Set in Nominal Terms
future cash flows will be offset by changes in cash flows If the WACC is set in nominal terms, the regulated
set by the regulator. asset base (RAB) and total capital and operating
• Changes in interest rates and inflation in the shorter expenditure allowances are quoted by the regulator in
term will have an impact on valuations of regulated nominal terms. Annual fluctuations in inflation have no
utilities, and the impact will depend on the mechanism impact on the allowed revenue.
and timing by which changes in these variables are Such companies are viewed as beneficiaries of low
reflected in cash flows (or not). inflation: if inflation stays depressed, asset owners
In summary, rising rates and accompanying inflation will may be overcompensated in the regulated cash
have little impact on valuations of regulated assets in flows to cover cost inflation in capital and operating
the medium to longer term if inflation can be directly or expenditures (due to allowances set in nominal terms),
indirectly passed through to customers. and vice versa, during the period.
2INSTITUTIONAL PERSPECTIVES
March 2021
However, the lower nominal bond yields resulting from a customer bills to reflect the increase. However, what is
low inflation rate would be factored into the regulator’s crucial is that utilities increase their rates to customers at
return allowance in the next WACC review, and vice versa. or around inflation over the medium to longer term.
For instance, for electricity networks in Spain, the nominal One area where rising inflation may potentially benefit
WACC allowance for 2020–26 is based on observations of utilities is the impact on allowed returns. Assuming
nominal bond rates (which embody the inflation trend) real interest rates are unchanged, higher inflation
over 2012–17 during the review process in 2018–19. leads to higher nominal interest rates, which is the
In other words, allowed returns allow for the pass-through benchmark utility regulators refer to in determining a
of inflation, albeit with a time lag of a few years. utility’s allowed return on equity (ROE). The higher the
WACC and Allowed Return Set in Real Terms nominal interest rate, generally the higher allowed ROE.
If the WACC is set in real terms, parameters such as RAB In some instances, the allowed ROE is formulaically
and total capital and operating expenditures are typically tied to certain interest rate benchmarks. For example,
estimated and approved by the regulator in real terms Ameren’s Illinois electric utility has allowed ROEs that
using forecast inflation for any regulatory period. The are annually adjusted to be 570 basis points (bps)
returns permitted by the regulator (allowed returns) above the 30-year U.S. Treasury rate. Another example
are then adjusted annually by actual inflation when is Edison International’s electric utility, where the 10.3%
determining the regulatory cash flow and asset base, i.e., allowed ROE gets adjusted up or down if the Moody’s
they are passed through to the customer through higher Bond Utility BAA Yield moves more than 100 bps over a
rates, maybe with a lag of a few months. rolling 12-month period.
Consequently, if inflation in a given year within a regulatory Having said that, history shows that allowed ROEs
period trends higher than the regulator’s forecast before have been quite sticky (Exhibit 1), and regulators have
the start of the period, there is a momentary boost to the tended to be quite slow in adjusting the allowed ROEs
cash flow compensation, and vice versa. in response to falling bond yields. As such, in a rising
bond yield environment it is difficult to see regulators
Such companies are viewed as beneficiaries of high inflation. increasing ROEs until they believe asset owners are not
However, taking a more holistic view over the regulatory being fairly compensated and funding future growth
period, if high inflation sustains for multiple years, it is has become too expensive. As context, the industry
taken into consideration by the regulator’s assumption average allowed ROE remains healthy in the 9%–10%
heading into the next price review, thereby driving down range, despite years of falling rates. In an environment
the real bond rate allowance embedded in the allowed where there is a need to continue incentivizing clean
return. The impact on the asset cash flows from inflation- energy investments and strong public policy support,
related drivers gets averaged out over the long term. we expect ROEs to remain fairly sticky.
In addition, companies may have mechanisms to further
Exhibit 1: Allowed Returns Slow to Adjust
moderate the sensitivity to inflation, such as using to Falling Bond Yields
inflation-linked bonds as part of their borrowings. The
higher the proportion of debt being inflation-linked, the 20%
more muted the short-term effects from inflation shocks
are on the cash flows. 15%
Case Study 2: The Impact of Inflation
on North American Utilities 10%
Fundamentally, North American utilities are insulated
from rising or falling inflation because customer rates are 5%
regulated under a cost-of-service methodology. Under
this model, utilities are not only able to earn a return
on their invested capital (for example, investment in 0%
poles and wires), but they are also able to pass through 1984 1991 1998 2005 2012 2019
expenses to the customer (for example, maintenance,
Allowed ROE
taxes, fuel, etc.), subject to approval by the regulator. 10- Year Government Bond Yield
When there is inflation and costs are rising, utilities can
file a rate case proceeding with the regulator to ask for As of Dec. 31, 2020. Source: ClearBridge Investments, Bloomberg Finance.
3INFLATION, RISING RATES AND THEIR IMPACT ON INFRASTRUCTURE
Case Study 3: The Impact of Inflation 3. Midstream companies that have non-contracted
on North American Pipelines volumes/marketing arms benefit directly by selling
In the case of North American midstream pipelines, the product at higher prices.
impact of inflation varies depending on the nature of
Case Study 4: The Impact of Inflation
the commercial agreement that underpins pipeline
on North American Renewables
assets (Exhibit 2).
Overall inflationary forces have muted valuation impact
Exhibit 2: Commercial Underpinning of Pipeline Assets on global renewables. While renewables companies are
largely being compensated through 10-year–20-year fixed
100% power purchase prices or partially inflating agreements,
the returns assumed within these agreements tend
75%
to have long-term inflation assumptions embedded.
50% Essentially, this means that while there is no explicit pass-
through of inflation through the pricing, a pass-through
25% is implicit when the contract is written and more often
than not the contract will contain buffers for instances
0% like rising inflation. For example, renewables companies
Enbridge TC Energy Williams Cheniere Gibson secure growth from their development pipelines, where
fixed-price contracts for the operational stage of assets
Uncontracted
are negotiated based on current market conditions.
Fee for Service
Take or Pay, without Escalators Meanwhile, technology is driving cost deflation,
Take or Pay, with Escalators preserving or expanding margins for renewables
Reg ulated Cos t of Service companies. Automation and software have translated to
lowering operations and maintenance costs (the largest
As of Feb. 28, 2021. Source: ClearBridge Investments, Bloomberg Finance.
contributors to costs), and companies largely expect
technology to continue to bring costs down. Bloomberg
Pipeline companies that operate long-haul transmission New Energy Finance forecasts capital costs in renewable
networks tend to have the highest level of inflation energy to continue to come down through 2050. For
protection as they operate under a cost-of-service example, solar photovoltaics are expected to see an
methodology or have long-term take-or-pay contracts annualized 3% decline through 2030.
with annual escalators embedded in their terms. For
example, Enbridge’s Lakehead System (the U.S. portion Case Study 5: The Impact of Inflation on Toll Roads
of the Liquids Mainline System), has rates that are either Rights to operate toll roads are typically granted under
indexed to PPI or cost-of-service, while the Canadian a concession and as such usually have a finite life.
Mainline (the Canadian portion of the Liquids Mainline Concession deeds define the parameters under which
System) has tariffs that are a function of GDP. Enbridge’s the toll road may operate, and, in most cases, this
gas transmission assets, such as the Texas Eastern stipulates how toll prices may be increased. Generally,
network, have recently gone through a rate case to toll price increases are linked to inflation; however, there
redetermine rates to reflect cost inflation, among other are a number of variations, including:
items, which resulted in an earnings uplift.
Those midstream assets that work under a fixed-fee • Full inflation pass-through (e.g., the Westlink M7
take-or-pay contract (such as Gibson Energy’s oil sands in Sydney)
storage tanks) or fee-for-service model (such as Williams’s
• Partial inflation pass-through (e.g., main French and
gathering and processing infrastructure) are more
Italian toll roads’ usual 0.7x CPI)
exposed to inflation.
To the extent that higher inflation is a product of higher • Inflation pass-through with a floor (e.g., WestConnex
commodity prices, that would generally be positive for in Sydney has greater of CPI or 4% until 2040)
midstream companies from the following perspectives: • No inflation linkage (e.g., 407 ETR in Toronto and I-95 in
1. Higher commodity prices mean healthier E&P Virginia are free to set tolls subject to constraints)
counterparties/customers. Here we illustrate the sensitivity of toll road valuations to
2. Higher prices may lead to more E&P activity, which may changes in inflation according to different pass-through
mean more infrastructure/growth capex is required. scenarios (Exhibit 3).
4INSTITUTIONAL PERSPECTIVES
March 2021
Exhibit 3: Valuation Sensitivity of Toll Roads to Inflation • Concessions with no inflation linkage will typically
135% mean valuations are affected more by traffic
congestion and thus economic conditions.
125% As such, inflation is typically passed through, making
V aluation Sensitiv ity to
CPI Change f rom 2.5%
toll road valuations less sensitive to nominal bond rate
changes where this is driven by increases in inflation.
115%
Toll road valuations are, however, very sensitive to
changes in real bond rates without an increase in
105% inflation, thus increasing discount rates without the
benefit of inflation-driven increases in cash flows.
95% It is also worth noting that, often, inflation occurs at times
of increased economic activity, which typically results
in increased traffic levels, further offsetting impacts of
85%
inflation from a valuation perspective.
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%
1.0x CPI Pass Through 0.7x CPI Pass Through
Case Study 6: The Impact of Inflation on Airports
Toll Floor at 2.5% Airports are typically regulated to some degree, and
as such inflation sensitivity somewhat depends on
As of Feb. 28, 2021. Source: ClearBridge Investments, Bloomberg Finance.
the regulatory model of the airport. Most airports are
Assumes real rates remain constant and inflation change impacts nominal
bond rates. dual-till, where aeronautical activities are regulated and
non-aeronautical activities (sometimes referred to as
The differences in inflation pass-throughs outlined above commercial activities) are not.
tend to drive the following outcomes: In general, both revenue streams can pass through
• Full inflation pass-through will lead to limited sensitivity. inflation increases, although how this occurs varies:
• Aeronautical: Typically, regulators set an allowed
• Partial inflation pass-through will lead to increased
return that regulated airport activities can earn. This
sensitivity, albeit costs are typically fixed and increase
allowed return is usually set for a period of five years
with inflation, providing for improving EBITDA margins
and includes an estimate of inflation. Increases or
with traffic growth (historically this is why partial inflation
decreases in the outlook for inflation are incorporated
pass-through exists, as inflation is achieved after costs).
at the next five-year reset and flow through into
• Floor price increases mean valuations are sensitive below regulated prices. Additionally, when setting prices
the inflation floor. When inflation is decreasing, valuation for five years, price increases are often set as CPI+x,
increases and vice versa. meaning prices are adjusted each year with inflation.
Exhibit 4: Dual-Till Regulation for Airports
5INFLATION, RISING RATES AND THEIR IMPACT ON INFRASTRUCTURE
Exhibit 5: Dual-Till Airports Can Pass Through Inflation
SYD - Real Price Changes
15%
10%
5%
0%
- 5%
- 10%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 CAGR
2003- 2019
Aeronautica l Commercial
As of Feb. 28, 2021. Source: ClearBridge Investments, Bloomberg Finance.
As such, aeronautical activities can be exposed to • Passenger Volume: The other key consideration
inflation risk for up to five years, but in many cases have in an airport’s ability to pass on inflation effects is
inflation linkages in actual pricing decisions. passenger volumes, given that most revenue streams
• Non-aeronautical: Commercial revenues are usually reflect the number of passengers multiplied by price.
negotiated between airports and customers. As such, As such, ticket price changes can have effects on
short-term exposure to inflation is often dictated by travel affordability and thus passenger numbers.
contractual terms, while longer-term exposure is dictated Over the last 50 years, airline ticket prices have fallen
by bargaining power. Historically airport revenues have in real terms often in combination with increases in
been able to achieve inflation via passenger increases on disposable income, stimulating travel demand. To the
passenger-related activities such as retail and parking. extent airline ticket price trends change, this will also
Property revenue increases have often been above have an impact on headline revenue.
inflation given the scarce nature of airport land.
Using Sydney Airports as an example, the real price
Many other factors also influence an airport’s ability to change in commercial activities has increased by 1.1%
pass on price increases, including: annually since 2003, while aeronautical has increased by
• Passenger Mix: Increases in high-spending 1.9% annually over the same period (Exhibit 5).
passenger groups such as Chinese tourists influence
revenue outcomes. The Response of Listed Infrastructure
Equities to Inflation
• Foreign Exchange (FX) Rates: This is typically passed
through immediately in short-term spending rates as Using North America and Europe as a case study, we
most travelers have a budget in their home currency have gone back 30 years and looked at the correlation
and their spending adjusts immediately with changes of infrastructure assets to both core and headline
in FX. FX rates are often influenced by the relevant inflation. Unsurprisingly and as we have discussed
country bond rate expectations, which are also above, correlations have little, if any, linear relationship
influenced by inflation. (Exhibit 6).1
Exhibit 6: Little Correlation Between Inflation and Infrastructure Share Prices
Europe North America
CPI All 30-Year Core CPI 30-Year CPI All 30-Year Core CPI 30-Year
Water 0.09 Water 0.10 Energy Infrastructure 0.27 Electric 0.11
Airports 0.08 Toll Roads 0.04 Rail 0.27 Rail 0.07
Gas -0.01 Gas -0.04 Communications 0.19 Water -0.03
Toll Roads -0.09 Airports -0.09 Electric 0.15 Energy Infrastructure -0.02
Electric -0.16 Electric -0.17 Gas 0.14 Gas -0.03
Water -0.03 Communications -0.27
As of Feb. 28, 2021. Source: ClearBridge Investments.
6INSTITUTIONAL PERSPECTIVES
March 2021
Growth-Driven Rising Rates a Boon for 1 Some observations and considerations: communications companies
in North America only have a data set back to 2007, and idiosyncratic
Infrastructure, While Inflation is a Pass-Through drivers such as rapid early cycle growth and conversion to REIT
A look at how the effects of rising interest rates and structures have to be considered when looking at correlations. Energy
inflation on infrastructure assets shows that while rising prices, one of the key differences (with food) between headline and core
rates due to increased growth expectations would have
inflation, increase the correlation of North American infrastructure, most
notably in user-pays and energy infrastructure assets. Underlying asset
a positive impact on both utility and user-pays assets, regulation, concession structure or contracting profile may also make
rising inflation has been an ongoing concern for the a difference in the way user-pays and utility assets behave. Market-
market. What is clear from the above analysis is that specific valuation techniques will also likely skew the relationship over
inflation is a pass-through, directly or indirectly, for short periods of time. For example, the North American markets focus on
infrastructure assets and so will have a limited impact
P/E ratios, while the European markets put greater focus on long-term
cash flow valuation measures such as EV/RAB. Bond yields and inflation
on valuations. Moreover, looking at correlations of around the world have been falling for the past 40 years.
various infrastructure assets to inflation over the past
30 years, there appears to be little to no relationship.
About the Author
Shane Hurst
Managing Director, Portfolio Manager
• 23 years of investment industry experience
• Joined ClearBridge in 2010
• Master of Commerce (Advanced Finance)
from the University of New South Wales
• Bachelor of Business from the University
of Technology Sydney
Definitions A basis point (bps) is one one-hundredth of one
percentage point (1/100% or 0.01%).
COVID-19 is the World Health Organization’s official
designation of the current novel coronavirus disease. EV / EBITDA equals a company’s enterprise value
The virus causing the novel coronavirus disease is divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation,
known as SARS¬CoV-2. and amortization. It measures the price (in the form
of enterprise value) an investor pays for the benefit of
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is an economic statistic
the company’s cash flow (in the form of EBITDA).
which measures the market value of all final goods and
services produced within a country in a given period of Consumer Price Indexes (CPI) measure the average
time. change in consumer prices over time in a fixed market
basket of goods and services.
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is a
calculation of a firm’s cost of capital in which each Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) invest in real
category of capital (i.e. common stock, preferred estate or loans secured by real estate and issue shares
stocks bonds, other long-term debt) is proportionately in such investments, which can be illiquid.
weighted.
Return on Equity (ROE) is the amount of net income
returned as a percentage of shareholders equity. Return
on equity measures a corporation’s profitability by
revealing how much profit a company generates with
the money shareholders have invested. ROE is expressed
as a percentage and calculated as: Return on Equity =
Net Income/Shareholder’s Equity.
7INFLATION, RISING RATES AND THEIR IMPACT ON INFRASTRUCTURE WHAT ARE THE RISKS? Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please note that an investor cannot invest directly in an index. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect any fees, expenses or sales charges. Equity securities are subject to price fluctuation and possible loss of principal. Fixed-income securities involve interest rate, credit, inflation and reinvestment risks; and possible loss of principal. As interest rates rise, the value of fixed income securities falls. International investments are subject to special risks including currency fluctua- tions, social, economic and political uncertainties, which could increase volatility. These risks are magnified in emerging markets. Commodities and currencies contain heightened risk that include market, political, regulatory, and natural conditions and may not be suitable for all investors. U.S. Treasuries are direct debt obligations issued and backed by the “full faith and credit” of the U.S. government. The U.S. government guarantees the principal and interest payments on U.S. Treasuries when the securities are held to maturity. Unlike U.S. Treasuries, debt securities issued by the federal agencies and instrumentalities and related investments may or may not be backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government. Even when the U.S. government guarantees principal and interest payments on securities, this guarantee does not apply to losses resulting from declines in the market value of these securities. Any companies and/or case studies referenced herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. 8
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